Ozzie Albies

2B Atlanta Braves

Age 30 S/R 5'7" / 165 lbs MLB Svc 9.360 · Ctrl thru 2027

Overview

MLB40-MANExtFA 2028

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR
2024	27	MLBATL	435	.251/.306/.404	10	8	98	1.1
2025	28	MLBATL	667	.240/.308/.365	16	14	89	0.8
2026	29	MLBATL	683	.237/.299/.392	22	4	90	1.0
2027PROJ	30	MLBATL	545	.246/.307/.385	14	7	95	0.9
2028PROJ	31	MLBATL	614	.241/.302/.374	16	4	90	0.3
2029PROJ	32	MLBATL	502	.235/.295/.359	12	3	84	-0.2

Last 3 seasons WAR 2.9 · Next 3 projected WAR 1.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2027Service9.360First FA2028

2027Ext$7M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2024-2026

Speed42

xwOBA35

Bat Spd31

Avg EV30

Barrel%24

Form.225/.280/.358 ▼▼ rolling true talent (60d window) · proj .245/.305/.385

CompsCristian Guzman (age 30) · Ildemaro Vargas (age 30) · Jose Macias (age 29)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†vL 9595vR 95

AVG/OBP/SLG.246 / .307 / .385

PA545

HR14

SB7

K%15

BB%7

BABIP266

ISO135

MLB%100%

Value2027 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · Recent Form · Splits · Contract

ToolsStatcast %ile · 2024-2026

CONTACT

xAVG

300.235

POWER

Barrel%

244.8

Avg EV

3087.6

Bat Spd

3169.3

SPEED

Sprint

4227.1

Recent Formrolling true talent ⓘ

K%19%▼▼21% over 107 PA (60d) · proj 15%

BB%6%▼6% over 107 PA (60d) · proj 7%

ISO.133·.122 over 98 AB (60d) · proj .139

HR/BB3.1%·2.6% over 76 BBE (60d) · proj 3.5%

BABIP.258▼.162 over 74 BIP (60d) · proj .266

SLASH.225/.280/.358▼▼proj .245/.305/.385

Platoon Splits2024-2026 · 1217 PA

vs LHP

vs RHP

Edge

336

881

—

wRC+

109

◀◀L

wOBA

329

300

◀L

ISO

155

132

◀L

BABIP

304

254

◀◀L

10.1%

15.9%

◀◀L

BB%

2.4%

9.0%

▶▶R

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status FA

MLB Debut 2017

Service 9.360 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2027

First FA Year 2028

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Ext	$7M	+1.1	$9M	+$2M
Totals		$7M		$9M	+$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2014	17	ROK	Danville Braves	—	239	198	72	7	3	1	28	23	4	22	5	364	452	444	897	81	401	10	12	392	116	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	18	A	Rome Braves	—	439	394	122	21	8	0	36	56	2	29	8	310	370	404	774	94	358	13	8	343	94	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	19	AAA	Gwinnett Braves	—	247	222	55	11	3	2	19	39	1	9	4	248	310	351	661	104	290	16	8	293	66	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	19	AA	Mississippi Braves	—	371	330	106	22	7	4	33	57	6	21	9	321	393	467	860	145	376	15	9	381	113	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	20	MLB	Atlanta Braves	—	244	217	62	9	5	6	21	36	3	8	1	286	357	456	813	171	316	15	9	356	127	+8	+1	+1	+2	+5	1.8
2017	20	AAA	Gwinnett Braves	—	448	411	117	21	8	9	28	90	2	21	2	285	333	440	774	156	342	20	6	337	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	21	MLB	Atlanta Braves	—	684	639	167	40	5	24	36	116	5	14	3	261	306	452	758	191	285	17	5	332	111	+9	+2	+10	+2	+15	3.8
2019	22	MLB	Atlanta Braves	—	702	640	189	43	8	24	54	112	4	15	4	295	354	500	854	205	325	16	8	373	135	+29	+1	-0	+3	+15	4.9
2020	23	MLB	Atlanta Braves	—	124	118	32	5	0	6	5	30	1	3	1	271	306	466	773	195	317	24	4	340	116	+2	+0	+3	+0	+3	0.8
2021	24	MLB	Atlanta Braves	—	686	629	163	40	7	30	47	128	3	20	4	259	314	488	802	229	278	19	7	347	119	+16	+2	+1	+2	+15	3.7
2022	25	MLB	Atlanta Braves	—	269	247	61	16	0	8	16	47	2	3	5	247	298	409	707	162	270	17	6	310	96	-1	-1	+3	+1	+6	0.8
2022	25	AAA	Gwinnett Stripers	—	27	27	9	0	1	1	0	6	0	0	0	333	333	519	852	185	400	22	0	371	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	26	MLB	Atlanta Braves	—	660	596	167	30	5	33	46	107	8	13	1	280	339	513	852	233	289	16	7	368	134	+26	+2	-6	+2	+14	4.0
2024	27	MLB	Atlanta Braves	—	435	399	100	29	1	10	27	65	5	8	1	251	306	404	710	153	274	15	6	314	98	-1	+1	-0	+2	+9	1.1
2025	28	MLB	Atlanta Braves	—	667	603	145	23	2	16	55	94	4	14	3	240	308	365	673	124	259	14	8	302	89	-9	+2	-2	+2	+14	0.8
2026	29	MLB	Atlanta Braves	—	683	615	146	27	1	22	46	105	8	4	4	237	299	392	691	154	247	15	7	303	90	-8	-1	+1	+2	+15	1.0
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	5154	4703	1232	262	34	179	353	840	43	102	27	262	319	446	765	184	282	16	7	335	113	+79	+10	+10	+20	+112	23.5
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2014	17	ROK MLE	Danville Braves	—	239	208	69	6	3	1	18	33	4	22	5	332	396	404	799	72	361	14	8	340	116	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	18	A MLE	Rome Braves	—	439	407	118	20	7	0	23	80	2	29	8	290	331	373	704	84	352	18	5	307	94	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	19	AAA MLE	Gwinnett Braves	—	247	227	55	10	3	2	14	45	1	9	4	242	289	339	628	97	280	18	6	266	66	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	19	AA MLE	Mississippi Braves	—	371	341	101	20	6	3	22	67	6	21	9	296	350	416	766	120	355	18	6	335	113	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	20	MLB MLE	Atlanta Braves	—	244	217	62	9	5	6	21	36	3	8	1	286	357	456	813	171	316	15	9	356	127	+8	+1	+1	+2	+5	1.8
2017	20	AAA MLE	Gwinnett Braves	—	448	419	110	19	8	8	20	109	2	21	2	263	299	403	703	141	328	24	4	302	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	21	MLB MLE	Atlanta Braves	—	684	639	167	40	5	24	36	116	5	14	3	261	306	452	758	191	285	17	5	332	111	+9	+2	+10	+2	+15	3.8
2019	22	MLB MLE	Atlanta Braves	—	702	646	189	43	8	24	48	112	4	15	4	293	345	495	841	203	325	16	7	367	135	+29	+1	-0	+3	+15	4.9
2020	23	MLB MLE	Atlanta Braves	—	124	118	32	5	0	6	5	30	1	3	1	271	306	466	773	195	317	24	4	340	116	+2	+0	+3	+0	+3	0.8
2021	24	MLB MLE	Atlanta Braves	—	686	631	163	40	7	30	45	128	3	20	4	258	311	487	797	228	278	19	7	345	119	+16	+2	+1	+2	+15	3.7
2022	25	MLB MLE	Atlanta Braves	—	269	247	61	16	0	8	16	47	2	3	5	247	298	409	707	162	270	17	6	310	96	-1	-1	+3	+1	+6	0.8
2022	25	AAA MLE	Gwinnett Stripers	—	27	27	8	0	1	1	0	7	0	0	0	296	296	481	778	185	369	26	0	303	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	26	MLB MLE	Atlanta Braves	—	660	600	167	30	5	33	44	107	8	13	1	278	336	510	846	232	289	16	7	366	134	+26	+2	-6	+2	+14	4.0
2024	27	MLB MLE	Atlanta Braves	—	435	399	100	29	1	10	27	65	5	8	1	251	306	404	710	153	274	15	6	314	98	-1	+1	-0	+2	+9	1.1
2025	28	MLB MLE	Atlanta Braves	—	667	605	145	23	2	16	53	94	4	14	3	240	305	364	669	124	259	14	8	300	89	-9	+2	-2	+2	+14	0.8
2026	29	MLB MLE	Atlanta Braves	—	683	616	146	27	1	22	45	105	8	4	4	237	297	391	689	154	247	15	7	302	90	-8	-1	+1	+2	+15	1.0
2014	17	ROK MLE	Danville Braves	—	239	208	69	6	3	1	18	33	4	22	5	332	396	404	799	72	384	14	8	340	116	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	17	ROK RAW	Danville Braves	—	239	198	72	7	3	1	28	23	4	22	5	364	452	444	897	81	401	10	12	392	116	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	18	A MLE	Rome Braves	—	439	407	118	20	7	0	23	80	2	29	8	290	331	373	704	84	358	18	5	307	94	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	18	A RAW	Rome Braves	—	439	394	122	21	8	0	36	56	2	29	8	310	370	404	774	94	358	13	8	343	94	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	19	AA MLE	2 teams	—	618	569	156	30	9	5	35	111	7	30	13	274	324	385	709	111	330	18	6	307	94	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	19	AA RAW	2 teams	—	618	552	161	33	10	6	52	96	7	30	13	292	360	420	780	129	341	16	8	346	94	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	20	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	692	636	172	28	13	14	41	145	5	29	3	270	320	421	741	151	327	21	6	321	104	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	20	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	692	628	179	30	13	15	49	126	5	29	3	285	342	446	788	161	333	18	7	344	104	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	21	MLB MLE	Atlanta Braves	—	684	639	167	40	5	24	36	116	5	14	3	261	306	452	758	191	285	17	5	332	111	+9	+2	+10	+2	+15	3.8
2018	21	MLB RAW	Atlanta Braves	—	684	639	167	40	5	24	36	116	5	14	3	261	306	452	758	191	285	17	5	332	111	+9	+2	+10	+2	+15	3.8
2019	22	MLB MLE	Atlanta Braves	—	702	646	189	43	8	24	48	112	4	15	4	293	345	495	841	203	321	16	7	367	135	+29	+1	-0	+3	+15	4.9
2019	22	MLB RAW	Atlanta Braves	—	702	640	189	43	8	24	54	112	4	15	4	295	354	500	854	205	325	16	8	373	135	+29	+1	-0	+3	+15	4.9
2020	23	MLB MLE	Atlanta Braves	—	124	118	32	5	0	6	5	30	1	3	1	271	306	466	773	195	317	24	4	340	116	+2	+0	+3	+0	+3	0.8
2020	23	MLB RAW	Atlanta Braves	—	124	118	32	5	0	6	5	30	1	3	1	271	306	466	773	195	317	24	4	340	116	+2	+0	+3	+0	+3	0.8
2021	24	MLB MLE	Atlanta Braves	—	686	631	163	40	7	30	45	128	3	20	4	258	311	487	797	228	277	19	7	345	119	+16	+2	+1	+2	+15	3.7
2021	24	MLB RAW	Atlanta Braves	—	686	629	163	40	7	30	47	128	3	20	4	259	314	488	802	229	278	19	7	347	119	+16	+2	+1	+2	+15	3.7
2022	25	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	296	274	69	16	1	9	16	54	2	3	5	252	298	416	714	164	279	18	5	309	95	-2	-1	+3	+1	+6	0.8
2022	25	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	296	274	70	16	1	9	16	53	2	3	5	255	301	420	721	164	282	18	5	315	95	-2	-1	+3	+1	+6	0.8
2023	26	MLB MLE	Atlanta Braves	—	660	600	167	30	5	33	44	107	8	13	1	278	336	510	846	232	286	16	7	366	134	+26	+2	-6	+2	+14	4.0
2023	26	MLB RAW	Atlanta Braves	—	660	596	167	30	5	33	46	107	8	13	1	280	339	513	852	233	289	16	7	368	134	+26	+2	-6	+2	+14	4.0
2024	27	MLB MLE	Atlanta Braves	—	435	399	100	29	1	10	27	65	5	8	1	251	306	404	710	153	274	15	6	314	98	-1	+1	-0	+2	+9	1.1
2024	27	MLB RAW	Atlanta Braves	—	435	399	100	29	1	10	27	65	5	8	1	251	306	404	710	153	274	15	6	314	98	-1	+1	-0	+2	+9	1.1
2025	28	MLB MLE	Atlanta Braves	—	667	605	145	23	2	16	53	94	4	14	3	240	305	364	669	124	258	14	8	300	89	-9	+2	-2	+2	+14	0.8
2025	28	MLB RAW	Atlanta Braves	—	667	603	145	23	2	16	55	94	4	14	3	240	308	365	673	124	259	14	8	302	89	-9	+2	-2	+2	+14	0.8
2026	29	MLB MLE	Atlanta Braves	—	683	616	146	27	1	22	45	105	8	4	4	237	297	391	689	154	247	15	7	302	90	-8	-1	+1	+2	+15	1.0
2026	29	MLB RAW	Atlanta Braves	—	683	615	146	27	1	22	46	105	8	4	4	237	299	392	691	154	247	15	7	303	90	-8	-1	+1	+2	+15	1.0
2014	17	ROK MLE	Danville Braves	—	239	215	69	6	3	1	18	33	4	22	5	321	396	391	786	70	361	14	8	340	116	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	18	A MLE	Rome Braves	—	439	411	118	20	7	0	23	80	2	29	8	287	331	370	701	83	352	18	5	307	94	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	19	AA MLE	2 teams	—	618	571	156	30	9	5	35	111	7	30	13	273	324	384	708	110	325	18	6	307	94	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	20	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	692	641	172	28	13	14	41	145	5	29	3	268	320	418	738	150	324	21	6	321	104	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	21	MLB MLE	Atlanta Braves	—	684	638	167	40	5	24	36	116	5	14	3	262	306	453	759	191	285	17	5	332	111	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	22	MLB MLE	Atlanta Braves	—	702	644	189	43	8	24	48	112	4	15	4	293	345	497	842	203	325	16	7	367	135	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	23	MLB MLE	Atlanta Braves	—	124	117	32	5	0	6	5	30	1	3	1	274	306	470	777	197	317	24	4	340	116	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	24	MLB MLE	Atlanta Braves	—	686	633	163	40	7	30	45	128	3	20	4	258	311	485	796	227	278	19	7	345	119	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	25	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	296	276	69	16	1	9	16	54	2	3	5	250	298	413	711	163	279	18	5	309	95	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	26	MLB MLE	Atlanta Braves	—	660	603	167	30	5	33	44	107	8	13	1	277	336	507	843	231	289	16	7	366	134	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	27	MLB MLE	Atlanta Braves	—	435	400	100	29	1	10	27	65	5	8	1	250	306	403	709	153	274	15	6	314	98	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	28	MLB MLE	Atlanta Braves	—	667	605	145	23	2	16	53	94	4	14	3	240	305	364	669	124	259	14	8	300	89	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	29	MLB MLE	Atlanta Braves	—	683	625	146	27	1	22	45	105	8	4	4	234	297	386	683	152	247	15	7	302	90	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	27	MLB MLE	Atlanta Braves	—	435	400	100	29	1	10	27	65	5	8	1	250	306	403	709	153	274	15	6	314	98	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	28	MLB MLE	Atlanta Braves	—	667	605	145	23	2	16	53	94	4	14	3	240	305	364	669	124	259	14	8	300	89	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	29	MLB MLE	Atlanta Braves	—	683	625	146	27	1	22	45	105	8	4	4	234	297	386	683	152	247	15	7	302	90	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	30	MLB MLE	ATL	100%	603	549	135	25	2	16	43	92	6	8	2	246	307	385	692	139	266	15	7	308	95	-4	+1	-2	+2	+13	1.1
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	30	MLB CTX	ATL	100%	545	496	121	23	1	14	39	83	5	7	2	246	307	385	692	139	266	15	7	308	95	-3	+1	-2	+2	+12	0.9
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	31	MLB MLE	ATL	100%	614	560	135	25	1	16	43	96	6	4	2	241	302	374	676	133	263	16	7	302	90	-7	+0	-5	+2	+13	0.3
2029	32	MLB MLE	ATL	100%	502	458	108	20	1	12	35	80	4	3	1	235	295	359	654	125	258	16	7	293	84	-9	+0	-5	+2	+11	-0.2
2028	31	MLB CTX	ATL	100%	614	560	135	25	1	16	43	96	6	4	2	241	302	374	676	133	263	16	7	302	90	-7	+0	-5	+2	+13	0.3
2029	32	MLB CTX	ATL	100%	502	458	108	20	1	12	35	80	4	3	1	235	295	359	654	125	258	16	7	293	84	-9	+0	-5	+2	+11	-0.2
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	6270	5721	1475	307	36	207	431	1016	53	109	30	258	316	433	748	175	278	16	7	328	104	+62	+10	-1	+24	+136	23.6
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	593	153	32	4	21	45	105	5	11	3	258	316	432	747	174	279	16	7	328	104	+6	+1	-0	+2	+14	2.5
Career	—	MLE		—	8586	7862	2057	405	65	236	553	1439	73	218	60	262	316	420	736	158	291	17	6	322	104	+59	+10	-3	+26	+148	24.6
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	595	156	31	5	18	42	109	6	17	5	262	318	422	740	160	291	17	6	322	104	+6	+1	-0	+2	+14	2.3

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2022 AAAGwinnett Stripers · 27 PAwOBA .360 → .303 (−58)K% 22.2% → 26.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	22.22%	÷1.002	×1.200	—	—	26.62%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	0.00%	÷0.998	×0.690	—	×1.033	0.00%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.940	—	×1.033	0.00%
Singles /BIP	33.33%	÷1.018	×0.930	—	×1.033	31.47%
Doubles /BIP	0.00%	÷0.966	×0.830	—	×1.033	0.00%
Triples /BIP	4.76%	÷1.150	×0.970	—	×1.033	4.15%
Home runs /BIP	4.76%	÷0.981	×0.700	—	×1.033	3.51%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 96, 1B 104, 2B 93, 3B 130, K 100, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .360 → .303; ISO .185 → .138; BABIP .400 → .369. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 AAAGwinnett Braves · 448 PAwOBA .330 → .302 (−28)K% 20.1% → 24.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	20.09%	÷0.989	×1.200	—	—	24.38%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	6.03%	÷0.999	×0.690	—	×1.050	4.37%
HBP% /PA	0.45%	—	×0.940	—	×1.050	0.44%
Singles /BIP	24.61%	÷1.005	×0.930	×0.994	×1.050	23.77%
Doubles /BIP	6.54%	÷0.936	×0.830	×0.994	×1.050	6.05%
Triples /BIP	2.49%	÷1.005	×0.970	×0.994	×1.050	2.51%
Home runs /BIP	2.80%	÷0.972	×0.840	—	×1.050	2.54%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 94, 1B 101, 2B 87, 3B 101, K 98, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (7.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.994.

Result: wOBA .330 → .302; ISO .156 → .144; BABIP .342 → .328. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2016 AAMississippi Braves · 371 PAwOBA .371 → .335 (−36)K% 15.4% → 18.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	15.36%	÷1.043	×1.220	—	—	17.97%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	8.09%	÷0.997	×0.680	—	×1.050	5.79%
HBP% /PA	1.62%	—	×0.840	—	×1.050	1.43%
Singles /BIP	26.74%	÷1.014	×0.920	×1.024	×1.050	26.07%
Doubles /BIP	8.06%	÷1.104	×0.910	×1.024	×1.050	7.14%
Triples /BIP	2.56%	÷1.150	×0.880	×1.024	×1.050	2.11%
Home runs /BIP	1.47%	÷1.084	×0.800	—	×1.050	1.14%

Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 117, 1B 103, 2B 121, 3B 130, K 109, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 24.8 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (5.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.024.

Result: wOBA .371 → .335; ISO .145 → .124; BABIP .376 → .355. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2016 AAAGwinnett Braves · 247 PAwOBA .288 → .266 (−22)K% 15.8% → 18.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	15.79%	÷1.046	×1.200	—	—	18.11%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	7.69%	÷1.022	×0.690	—	×1.050	5.45%
HBP% /PA	0.40%	—	×0.940	—	×1.050	0.40%
Singles /BIP	21.31%	÷1.017	×0.930	×1.031	×1.050	21.10%
Doubles /BIP	6.01%	÷0.991	×0.830	×1.031	×1.050	5.45%
Triples /BIP	1.64%	÷1.150	×0.970	×1.031	×1.050	1.50%
Home runs /BIP	1.09%	÷1.132	×0.840	—	×1.050	0.85%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 126, 1B 103, 2B 98, 3B 130, K 109, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (8.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.031.

Result: wOBA .288 → .266; ISO .104 → .093; BABIP .290 → .280. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2015 ARome Braves · 439 PAwOBA .337 → .307 (−30)K% 12.8% → 18.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	12.76%	÷0.932	×1.340	—	—	18.33%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	8.20%	÷1.077	×0.660	—	×1.050	5.28%
HBP% /PA	0.46%	—	×0.770	—	×1.050	0.37%
Singles /BIP	27.51%	÷1.026	×0.920	×1.050	×1.050	27.20%
Doubles /BIP	6.21%	÷0.915	×0.820	×1.050	×1.050	6.14%
Triples /BIP	2.37%	÷1.150	×0.940	×1.050	×1.050	2.13%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷1.097	×0.820	—	×1.050	0.00%

Factors used: league row SAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 119, 1B 105, 2B 83, 3B 130, K 86, BB 115 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 22.0 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.

Result: wOBA .337 → .307; ISO .094 → .088; BABIP .358 → .352. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2014 ROKDanville Braves · 239 PAwOBA .386 → .340 (−46)K% 9.6% → 13.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	9.62%	÷1.000	×1.420	—	—	13.67%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	11.30%	÷1.000	×0.640	—	×1.038	7.50%
HBP% /PA	1.67%	—	×0.740	—	×1.038	1.28%
Singles /BIP	34.86%	÷1.000	×0.840	×1.050	×1.038	31.90%
Doubles /BIP	4.00%	÷1.000	×0.740	×1.050	×1.038	3.22%
Triples /BIP	1.71%	÷1.000	×0.740	×1.050	×1.038	1.38%
Home runs /BIP	0.57%	÷1.000	×0.800	—	×1.038	0.47%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 17 vs a level average of 19.5 → +3.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.

Result: wOBA .386 → .340; ISO .081 → .069; BABIP .401 → .361. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Asdrúbal Cabreralast yr '21 career totals — 15 seasons, 7,401 PA	11.1	7,401	195	91	266	329	423	+58	+11	38.2	32.2
/162	664	17	8	+5.2	+1.0	3.4	pk7: 26
#2Tim Wallach'80-'96 * career totals — 16 seasons, 8,908 PA	13.4	8,908	260	51	253*	313*	441*	+20	+21	34.7	30.1
/162	664	19	4	+1.5	+1.5	2.6	pk7: 26
#3Travis Fryman'90-'02 * career totals — 13 seasons, 7,217 PA	10.9	7,217	223	72	264*	325*	440*	+35	+13	32.2	29.6
/162	664	21	7	+3.2	+1.2	3.0	pk7: 27
#4Aaron Hilllast yr '17 career totals — 13 seasons, 6,217 PA	9.4	6,217	162	74	266	323	417	+22	+25	27.7	26.1
/162	664	17	8	+2.4	+2.6	3.0	pk7: 25
#5Don Money'68-'83 * career totals — 15 seasons, 6,998 PA	10.5	6,998	176	80	259*	328*	441*	-4	+2	28.7	25.7
/162	664	17	8	-0.4	+0.2	2.7	pk7: 23
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 13 projected seasons	10.3	6,815	221	116	257	312	429	+24	+20	27.4	24.9
/162	664	22	11	+2.4	+2.0	2.7	pk7: 22
#6Mike Moustakaslast yr '23 career totals — 13 seasons, 5,577 PA	8.4	5,577	215	21	247	307	431	+14	+18	22.8	22.1
/162	664	26	3	+1.6	+2.1	2.7	pk7: 21

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Ozzie Albies (OGILVIE)	30	—	—	—	—	244/305/381	138	266	14	7	15%	7%	95	+0.9	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
●Cristian Guzman 2008 · MLB	30	54→64	42→50	55	49	260/308/379	120	290	8	9	14%	6%	93	+0.8	290/322/404	114	321	8	6	12%	4%	104	+1.6	287/317/388	101	321	6	6	12%	4%	99	+1.1
✕Ildemaro Vargas 2021 · MLB	30	53→58	44→45	50	47	256/292/377	121	273	11	7	12%	5%	87	+0.4	235/276/355	120	257	10	7	13%	5%	76	-0.4	240/290/336	96	257	7	8	10%	6%	77	-0.2
✕Jose Macias 2001 · MLB	29	50→60	43→45	56→50	55	243/315/363	120	269	10	9	14%	9%	93	+0.8	251/299/374	123	276	10	16	13%	6%	90	+0.6	284/326/405	122	299	8	8	8%	6%	103	+1.0
✕Tyler Heineman 2021 · MLB	30	48→46	46→45	52→50	48	238/301/368	130	269	13	9	17%	7%	90	+0.6	221/286/302	81	270	6	8	19%	7%	69	-0.9	215/308/308	93	267	9	14	21%	9%	79	-0.1
✕Kazuo Matsui 2006 · MLB	30	53→60	42→45	54→60	47	254/305/368	114	296	9	14	17%	6%	91	+0.6	262/312/377	115	306	8	24	16%	7%	95	+0.9	272/324/386	115	315	7	30	15%	7%	102	+1.0
✕Wilkin Castillo 2014 · AAA	30	52→59	43→45	51→50	42	254/280/364	110	284	11	12	15%	3%	80	-0.2	224/264/322	98	256	8	9	16%	5%	64	-1.3	187/214/256	68	211	5	3	14%	3%	26	-1.2
●Jamey Carroll 2003 · MLB	29	51→61	48→40	55→50	49	254/307/408	155	288	13	10	17%	7%	100	+1.3	253/324/338	85	292	4	10	14%	9%	91	+0.6	283/359/342	59	336	1	12	14%	10%	106	+1.3
✕Juniel Querecuto 2022 · AAA	29	47→57	46→45	53→50	43	234/272/362	128	274	13	11	20%	5%	76	-0.4	216/261/329	113	274	11	13	24%	5%	65	-1.2	202/249/305	103	260	10	13	26%	5%	53	-1.6
✕Shawn O'Malley 2018 · MLB	30	48→58	41→40	52→60	47	232/296/334	102	292	8	16	23%	7%	80	-0.2	226/278/328	102	289	9	11	24%	6%	71	-0.8	230/263/298	67	298	2	9	23%	4%	55	-0.6
✕Tomás Telis 2021 · MLB	30	53→62	44→45	47→45	44	259/292/375	116	284	11	5	14%	4%	87	+0.4	246/289/332	86	280	8	6	15%	5%	76	-0.4	251/292/317	67	284	7	3	14%	5%	70	-0.6
✕Mike Cervenak 2006 · AAA	29	51→58	48→45	52→40	46	256/303/398	142	278	16	7	15%	5%	97	+1.1	246/278/370	124	277	13	4	16%	3%	81	-0.1	256/299/370	115	282	13	3	14%	5%	87	+0.3
✕Maxwell Leon 2012 · AAA	28	48→56	49→50	54→50	45	242/296/399	157	289	15	8	22%	6%	95	+0.9	246/311/355	109	302	8	12	20%	6%	90	+0.6	250/314/340	89	309	5	13	19%	6%	85	+0.1
✕Carlos Colmenares 2017 · AAA	31	51→54	46→40	57→50	45	250/299/393	143	309	11	16	22%	6%	94	+0.9	235/282/344	109	284	9	15	20%	6%	76	-0.4	243/277/319	77	288	3	17	16%	5%	65	-0.3
✕Jace Peterson 2020 · MLB	30	48→57	46→50	56→55	51	234/305/373	138	281	12	19	21%	9%	92	+0.7	237/321/383	146	298	15	17	24%	11%	101	+1.4	222/312/344	122	285	12	20	25%	11%	89	+0.3
✕Don Kelly 2011 · MLB	31	51→59	45	55	47	251/294/370	119	278	13	15	15%	5%	87	+0.4	231/291/352	121	255	14	10	15%	7%	82	-0.0	218/289/328	110	237	12	8	14%	8%	76	-0.2
✕Pablo Ozuna 2005 · MLB	30	48	45→40	54→55	50	236/302/361	125	262	12	15	16%	7%	88	+0.5	266/310/358	92	295	6	23	12%	5%	89	+0.5	288/324/371	83	316	3	24	10%	3%	98	+0.3
✕Leury García 2021 · MLB	30	55→62	43→45	52→60	41	266/302/379	113	326	11	14	22%	4%	92	+0.7	242/294/341	99	298	8	8	21%	6%	80	-0.2	239/292/324	85	299	6	8	21%	6%	76	-0.2
✕Kevin Newman 2024 · MLB	30	52→62	40→45	52→50	49	246/296/342	96	276	6	13	13%	6%	81	-0.1	238/281/331	93	287	7	11	19%	5%	72	-0.7	228/265/303	75	282	5	9	20%	5%	60	-0.6
✕Adeiny Hechavarría 2019 · MLB	30	50→60	43→50	50	44	243/279/353	109	279	11	6	17%	5%	77	-0.3	246/295/381	135	290	14	8	20%	6%	90	+0.6	226/274/378	153	267	17	6	22%	5%	83	+0.0
✕Abraham Almonte 2019 · MLB	30	46→55	45→55	52→55	50	227/295/358	132	278	11	12	22%	9%	84	+0.2	221/309/393	172	269	17	12	23%	11%	99	+1.2	220/317/396	176	267	19	11	24%	12%	100	+0.8

Ozzie Albies

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps