Riley Greene — OGILVIE

Riley GreeneLF Detroit Tigers

Age 25 L/L 6'2" / 200 lbs MLB HR -8% Svc 3.640 · Ctrl thru 2028

2026 ROS PROJECTION400 act + 266 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†vL 82132vR 152

AVG/OBP/SLG.274 / .359 / .484

PA266

HR11

K%28

BB%11

BABIP354

ISO210

MLB%100%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control

Tools · Splits · ContractCON 50 / POW 60

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2024-2026

CONTACT50

Whiff%

629.7%

xwOBA

850.349

POWER60

Barrel%

9015.0

Avg EV

7490.8

Bat Spd

8975.4

EYE50

Chase%

9023.0%

SPEED45

Sprint

3226.6

Platoon Splits2024-2026 · 1350 PA

vs LHP

vs RHP

Edge

382

968

—

wRC+

147

▶▶R

wOBA

304

377

▶▶R

ISO

160

246

▶▶R

BABIP

305

343

▶R

29.6%

27.9%

▶R

BB%

8.9%

9.1%

—

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Arb-1

MLB Debut 2022

Service 3.640 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2028

First FA Year 2029

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext	$2M	+1.7	$13M	+$11M
2027	Arb-2	$16M	+4.6	$34M	+$20M
2028	Arb-3	$23M	+4.5	$31M	+$12M
Totals		$41M		$78M	+$44M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2019	18	A	2 teams	—	151	137	27	4	2	3	7	49	4	4	0	197	257	321	578	124	273	32	5	259	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	18	A	2 teams	—	151	133	34	5	2	4	11	38	4	4	0	256	331	414	745	158	319	25	7	327	109	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	20	AA	2 teams	—	558	504	129	23	6	19	44	186	7	16	1	256	324	438	763	183	364	33	8	331	112	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	20	AA	2 teams	—	558	485	146	25	8	24	63	153	7	16	1	301	389	534	923	233	392	27	11	403	166	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	21	MLB	2 teams	—	486	440	113	22	4	6	40	137	3	4	4	257	323	366	689	109	357	28	8	308	94	-3	-1	-1	+2	+14	1.1
2022	21	MLB	2 teams	—	486	438	112	22	4	6	42	134	3	4	4	256	325	365	690	110	352	28	9	311	96	-2	-1	-1	+2	+14	1.2
2023	22	MLB	Detroit Tigers	—	416	378	113	20	4	12	35	114	1	7	0	299	360	468	828	169	398	27	8	361	135	+16	+1	-1	+1	+12	3.0
2023	22	MLB	Detroit Tigers	—	416	378	109	19	4	11	35	114	1	7	0	288	350	447	797	159	384	27	8	353	128	+13	+1	-1	+1	+12	2.7
2024	23	MLB	Detroit Tigers	—	584	513	140	29	6	26	64	156	5	4	2	273	359	505	864	232	342	27	11	370	141	+27	+0	+0	-6	+17	3.9
2024	23	MLB	Detroit Tigers	—	584	512	134	27	6	24	64	156	5	4	2	262	349	479	827	217	329	27	11	364	136	+24	+0	+0	-6	+17	3.5
2025	24	MLB	Detroit Tigers	—	655	600	162	33	1	39	46	201	4	2	1	270	326	523	849	253	337	31	7	364	136	+27	+0	-3	-7	+19	3.7
2025	24	MLB	Detroit Tigers	—	655	600	155	31	1	36	46	201	4	2	1	258	315	493	809	235	323	31	7	351	127	+20	+0	-3	-7	+19	2.9
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	25	MLB	DET	—	400	344	99	19	1	13	51	108	2	2	1	288	383	462	845	174	381	27	13	367	139	+18	+0	-1	-4	+11	2.4
YTD	25	MLB	DET	—	400	344	99	19	1	13	51	108	2	2	1	288	383	462	845	174	381	27	13	375	145	+20	+0	-1	-4	+11	2.6
ROS	25	MLB	DET	100%	266	233	64	12	2	11	29	74	2	2	1	274	359	484	843	210	345	28	11	364	137	+11	+0	+2	-3	+8	1.8
ROS	25	MLB	DET	100%	267	234	61	11	2	10	29	74	2	2	1	261	347	453	800	192	339	28	11	353	128	+9	+0	+2	-3	+8	1.6
FULL	25	MLB	DET	—	667	578	160	30	3	23	80	182	4	4	2	277	369	458	827	182	363	27	12	361	135	+26	+0	+1	-7	+19	3.9
TOT	25	MLB	DET	—	666	577	163	31	3	24	80	182	4	4	2	282	373	471	844	189	370	27	12	366	138	+29	+0	+1	-7	+19	4.2
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	26	MLB	DET	100%	653	572	154	29	4	27	72	181	4	4	1	269	355	476	830	206	344	28	11	365	137	+28	+0	+5	-7	+19	4.5
2028	27	MLB	DET	100%	640	560	151	28	4	27	71	178	4	4	1	270	356	479	834	209	344	28	11	365	137	+27	+0	+5	-7	+18	4.4
2029	28	MLB	DET	100%	627	548	147	27	4	26	70	175	4	4	1	268	355	474	830	206	343	28	11	363	136	+26	+0	+4	-7	+18	4.2
2030	29	MLB	DET	100%	615	538	143	27	3	25	69	173	3	3	1	266	352	467	819	201	342	28	11	361	135	+24	+0	+3	-7	+17	3.9
2031	30	MLB	DET	100%	603	527	138	26	3	24	68	171	3	3	1	262	349	459	809	197	340	28	11	358	132	+22	+0	+3	-6	+17	3.6
2032	31	MLB	DET	100%	591	516	134	25	3	23	67	169	3	3	1	260	348	453	802	194	336	29	11	353	128	+19	+0	+2	-6	+17	3.2
2033	32	MLB	DET	100%	579	506	128	23	3	22	65	168	3	2	1	253	341	441	782	188	331	29	11	346	123	+15	+0	+1	-6	+16	2.7
2034	33	MLB	DET	100%	499	438	107	19	2	18	56	147	2	1	0	244	333	420	753	176	324	29	11	338	117	+9	+0	-0	-5	+14	1.8
2035	34	MLB	DET	100%	441	387	92	15	2	16	49	133	2	1	0	238	326	411	737	173	315	30	11	327	109	+4	+0	-1	-5	+12	1.1
2036	35	MLB	DET	100%	386	338	77	12	2	13	43	119	2	1	0	228	319	391	709	163	306	31	11	315	99	-0	+0	-3	-4	+11	0.4
2037	36	MLB	DET	100%	326	286	61	9	1	10	36	104	1	0	0	213	303	357	660	143	296	32	11	303	90	-4	+0	-4	-3	+9	-0.2
2027	26	MLB	DET	100%	653	572	151	28	4	26	72	181	4	4	1	264	350	463	814	199	338	28	11	354	129	+21	+0	+5	-7	+19	3.9
2028	27	MLB	DET	100%	640	560	147	27	4	25	71	178	4	4	1	263	350	459	809	196	337	28	11	354	129	+21	+0	+5	-7	+18	3.8
2029	28	MLB	DET	100%	627	548	145	27	4	25	70	175	4	4	1	265	352	465	817	201	337	28	11	352	128	+20	+0	+4	-7	+18	3.6
2030	29	MLB	DET	100%	615	538	141	26	4	24	69	173	3	3	1	262	349	459	808	197	336	28	11	350	126	+18	+0	+3	-7	+17	3.3
2031	30	MLB	DET	100%	603	527	135	25	3	23	68	171	3	3	1	256	344	446	790	190	334	28	11	347	124	+16	+0	+3	-6	+17	3.0
2032	31	MLB	DET	100%	591	516	131	24	3	22	67	169	3	3	1	254	343	440	783	186	330	29	11	343	120	+14	+0	+2	-6	+17	2.7
2033	32	MLB	DET	100%	579	506	125	22	3	21	65	168	3	2	1	247	336	427	763	180	325	29	11	336	115	+10	+0	+1	-6	+16	2.2
2034	33	MLB	DET	100%	499	438	105	18	2	18	56	147	2	1	0	240	329	413	742	174	318	29	11	328	109	+5	+0	-0	-5	+14	1.4
2035	34	MLB	DET	100%	441	387	90	15	2	15	49	133	2	1	0	233	322	398	720	165	310	30	11	318	102	+1	+0	-1	-5	+12	0.7
2036	35	MLB	DET	100%	386	338	75	12	2	12	43	119	2	1	0	222	313	376	689	154	300	31	11	307	93	-3	+0	-3	-4	+11	0.1
2037	36	MLB	DET	100%	326	286	61	9	1	10	36	104	1	0	0	213	303	357	660	143	291	32	11	295	84	-6	+0	-4	-3	+9	-0.4
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	8300	7316	1860	339	49	307	876	2383	46	42	15	254	338	440	778	186	333	29	11	341	119	+180	+2	+13	-77	+235	36.1
/ 162G	—			—	650	573	146	27	4	24	69	187	4	3	1	255	339	442	781	187	334	29	11	341	119	+14	+0	+1	-6	+18	2.8
Career	—			—	9076	8021	2080	383	56	347	931	2635	57	65	16	259	341	451	791	191	341	29	10	348	124	+248	+7	+13	-84	+257	44.9
/ 162G	—			—	650	574	149	27	4	25	67	189	4	5	1	260	341	451	792	192	342	29	10	348	124	+18	+1	+1	-6	+18	3.2

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2019	18	A	West Michigan Whitecaps	—	108	96	21	2	2	2	6	26	3	4	0	219	286	344	629	125	268	24	6	277	70	-4	+1	—	—	+3	0.0
2019	18	ROK	GCL Tigers West	—	43	37	13	3	0	2	5	12	1	0	0	351	442	595	1.036	243	478	28	12	453	205	+5	+0	—	—	+1	0.6
2021	20	AAA	Toledo Mud Hens	—	185	159	49	9	3	8	22	51	3	4	0	308	402	553	956	245	406	28	12	415	176	+16	+1	—	—	+5	2.2
2021	20	AA	Erie SeaWolves	—	373	326	97	16	5	16	41	102	4	12	1	298	383	525	907	227	386	27	11	396	161	+26	+2	—	—	+11	3.9
2022	21	MLB	Detroit Tigers	—	418	376	95	18	4	5	36	120	3	1	4	253	323	362	685	109	354	29	9	308	94	-3	-1	-1	+2	+12	0.9
2022	21	AAA	Toledo Mud Hens	—	68	62	17	4	0	1	6	14	0	3	0	274	338	387	725	113	340	21	9	327	109	+1	+1	—	—	+2	0.3
2023	22	MLB	Detroit Tigers	—	416	378	109	19	4	11	35	114	1	7	0	288	350	447	797	159	384	27	8	353	128	+13	+1	-1	+1	+12	2.7
2024	23	MLB	Detroit Tigers	—	584	512	134	27	6	24	64	156	5	4	2	262	349	479	827	217	329	27	11	364	136	+24	+0	+0	-6	+17	3.5
2025	24	MLB	Detroit Tigers	—	655	600	155	31	1	36	46	201	4	2	1	258	315	493	809	235	323	31	7	351	127	+20	+0	-3	-7	+19	2.9
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	2073	1866	493	95	15	76	181	591	13	14	7	264	333	453	787	189	344	29	9	346	123	+54	+0	-4	-10	+59	10.1

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Nelson Cruzlast yr '23 career totals — 18 seasons, 8,389 PA	18	8,389	464	84	274	343	513	-89	-28	50.7	42.8
	/162	664	37	7	274	343	513	-7.1	-2.2	4.0	pk7: 35
#2Edwin Encarnaciónlast yr '20 career totals — 16 seasons, 8,126 PA	16	8,126	424	61	260	350	496	-77	-92	41.9	34.3
	/162	664	35	5	260	350	496	-6.3	-7.5	3.4	pk7: 27
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 17 projected seasons	17	9,092	352	46	261	340	454	-97	-38	40.7	32.9
	/162	664	26	3	261	340	454	-7.1	-2.8	3.0	pk7: 25
#3Jayson Werthlast yr '17 career totals — 15 seasons, 6,366 PA	15	6,366	229	132	267	360	455	-68	-36	32.0	29.7
	/162	664	24	14	267	360	455	-7.1	-3.7	3.3	pk7: 27
#4Justin Uptonlast yr '22 AS×4SS×2 career totals — 16 seasons, 7,649 PA	16	7,649	325	151	261	342	469	-82	-91	29.6	27.0
	/162	664	28	13	261	342	469	-7.1	-7.9	2.6	pk7: 24
#5Aubrey Hufflast yr '12 career totals — 13 seasons, 6,786 PA	13	6,786	242	37	278	342	464	-60	-75	25.5	26.9
	/162	664	24	4	278	342	464	-5.8	-7.4	2.5	pk7: 28
#6Nick Swisherlast yr '15 career totals — 12 seasons, 6,308 PA	12	6,308	245	13	249	351	447	-62	-56	24.5	24.4
	/162	664	26	1	249	351	447	-6.5	-5.9	2.6	pk7: 24

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Riley Greene (OGILVIE)	25	50	60	45	50	282/373/471	189	370	24	4	27%	12%	138	+4.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
●Michael Conforto 2018 · MLB	25	50→52	59→65	45	53	262/347/482	219	308	27	4	24%	10%	137	+4.3	260/360/479	219	310	28	6	24%	12%	141	+4.6	260/365/476	216	309	28	5	24%	13%	136	+3.6
★Kyle Schwarber 2017 · MLB	24	48→47	59→70	45	51	250/337/458	208	320	27	6	29%	11%	127	+3.6	235/334/474	239	284	33	4	29%	13%	130	+3.8	241/362/519	278	282	40	6	29%	15%	147	+5.0
★Pat Burrell 2002 · MLB	25	51→55	57→65	45→30	54	259/348/464	205	325	25	3	27%	12%	133	+4.0	253/348/473	220	301	27	2	24%	12%	135	+4.2	263/392/497	234	304	30	0	22%	17%	152	+5.5
●Craig Wilson 2003 · MLB	26	54→53	57→60	42→40	46	270/356/468	198	342	26	6	27%	8%	138	+4.4	265/357/484	219	329	26	5	26%	9%	142	+4.6	263/363/490	227	331	26	4	26%	9%	140	+3.2
●Domingo Santana 2018 · MLB	25	54→57	59→60	46→50	51	268/355/481	213	356	27	11	31%	11%	140	+4.5	247/328/423	176	363	21	9	34%	10%	114	+2.7	239/318/402	162	366	19	7	37%	10%	101	+1.5
●Jesús Sánchez 2023 · MLB	25	47→54	57→60	49→50	45	249/312/448	199	306	25	5	27%	8%	114	+2.7	252/317/434	182	316	21	11	26%	8%	112	+2.6	250/317/424	174	310	20	13	25%	8%	106	+1.7
●Adam LaRoche 2005 · MLB	25	52→55	55→65	47→40	48	267/325/463	196	313	21	4	22%	8%	123	+3.3	268/334/481	213	304	25	2	20%	9%	131	+3.9	272/347/498	226	315	27	1	22%	10%	134	+4.0
●Ike Davis 2012 · MLB	25	53→54	54→60	43→40	54	265/345/452	187	323	21	3	24%	11%	128	+3.7	233/326/424	191	275	24	3	24%	12%	114	+2.7	221/324/404	183	258	23	2	23%	13%	102	+1.5
●Ben Grieve 2001 · MLB	25	53→57	56→55	49→45	56	275/353/476	202	309	23	4	19%	11%	137	+4.3	260/360/419	159	322	16	7	22%	12%	126	+3.5	253/364/397	145	319	15	6	23%	13%	118	+2.3
★Mark Reynolds 2009 · MLB	25	49→55	59→65	49→50	47	252/326/467	215	335	27	7	32%	10%	124	+3.4	233/329/475	242	308	32	12	33%	12%	128	+3.7	221/327/472	251	283	35	12	34%	12%	122	+3.4
●Jay Bruce 2012 · MLB	25	48→54	58→65	42→50	53	255/334/461	206	295	27	7	23%	10%	127	+3.6	245/319/454	209	295	26	8	25%	9%	118	+3.0	239/307/473	234	261	30	5	22%	9%	113	+2.7
●Alex Kirilloff 2023 · MLB	25	51→60	55	46→45	45	265/323/447	182	308	24	5	22%	6%	118	+3.0	254/323/431	177	312	21	5	25%	8%	114	+2.7	249/325/428	179	309	21	3	25%	8%	111	+1.2
●Nathaniel Lowe 2021 · MLB	26	50→60	55	47→40	51	256/332/442	186	311	23	4	25%	10%	121	+3.2	268/348/431	163	339	19	5	24%	11%	124	+3.4	271/356/432	161	339	18	3	24%	11%	124	+3.8
●Joc Pederson 2017 · MLB	25	45→53	60→70	44→55	57	236/346/458	222	299	28	10	30%	14%	131	+3.9	242/333/486	244	268	31	6	23%	11%	133	+4.0	263/368/491	227	304	29	5	22%	12%	142	+3.3
●Willy Adames 2022 · MLB	26	52	58→65	43→50	49	263/333/475	212	336	26	6	29%	10%	129	+3.7	245/319/460	215	298	27	9	27%	10%	120	+3.1	236/326/443	207	281	27	11	26%	11%	115	+3.1
●Austin Kearns 2006 · MLB	26	48→58	57→60	46→45	52	250/333/460	210	302	24	4	25%	10%	126	+3.5	257/346/432	175	300	19	5	20%	11%	124	+3.4	254/350/412	158	292	17	5	18%	11%	116	+2.6
●Hank Blalock 2006 · MLB	25	52→57	56→65	42→45	51	271/334/465	193	301	24	2	19%	8%	128	+3.6	271/331/447	176	301	20	4	17%	8%	121	+3.2	276/336/453	177	303	19	3	15%	8%	119	+2.0
●Wily Mo Peña 2008 · MLB	26	52→54	56→65	44→40	42	263/323/453	190	344	24	4	30%	7%	120	+3.1	246/292/389	143	311	18	4	26%	6%	90	+1.0	283/332/504	221	346	31	3	27%	5%	135	+1.7
●Josh Phelps 2004 · MLB	26	55→53	59→60	41→40	47	277/354/490	213	342	27	3	26%	8%	143	+4.7	256/315/451	195	312	24	3	26%	6%	117	+2.9	256/319/443	188	320	24	3	27%	7%	113	+1.9
●Daniel Vogelbach 2019 · MLB	26	49→53	55→60	42→40	54	256/336/441	185	293	24	3	22%	10%	122	+3.3	234/345/443	209	272	28	3	24%	14%	126	+3.5	237/357/419	182	285	24	0	24%	15%	121	+2.0