Riley Greene — OGILVIE

Riley GreeneLF Detroit Tigers

Age 25 L/L 6'2" / 200 lbs MLB HR +5%H +3% Svc 4.000 · Ctrl thru 2027 peak 3.8 · 2027

wRC+†vL 84136vR 155

AVG/OBP/SLG.261 / .329 / .476

PA655

HR31

SB6

K%29

BB%9

xwOBA.391

Barrel%12.7%

MLB%100%

Scouting · now → future

HIT

50→50

PWR

60→60

SPD

45→45

EYE

54↘50

trajectory · 10 yrs

3.8peak

2027

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Arb-2

MLB Debut 2022

Service 4.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2027

First FA Year 2028

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	Arb-2	$11M	+3.6	$29M	+$18M
2027	Arb-3	$19M	+3.8	$31M	+$12M
Totals		$30M		$60M	+$30M

Career Projections (MLE)

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2019	18	A	2 teams	151	137	28	4	2	3	7	49	4	4	0	.204	.264	.328	.592	.124	.284	32	5	.251	50	-9	+1	+0	-2	+4	-0.5
2021	20	AA	2 teams	558	505	129	22	6	19	43	189	7	16	1	.255	.323	.436	.758	.180	.367	34	8	.331	111	+7	+3	+0	-6	+16	2.0
2022	21	MLB	2 teams	486	440	110	23	4	6	40	137	3	4	4	.250	.317	.361	.678	.111	.347	28	8	.303	90	-6	-1	-1	+2	+14	0.9
2023	22	MLB	Detroit Tigers	416	378	111	19	4	12	35	114	1	7	0	.294	.355	.460	.815	.167	.390	27	8	.353	128	+13	+1	-1	+1	+12	2.7
2024	23	MLB	Detroit Tigers	584	513	134	25	6	24	64	156	5	4	2	.261	.349	.474	.822	.212	.328	27	11	.357	131	+21	+0	+0	-6	+17	3.2
2025	24	MLB	Detroit Tigers	655	600	148	29	1	34	46	201	4	2	1	.247	.305	.468	.773	.222	.308	31	7	.335	115	+11	+0	-3	-7	+19	2.0
▸ 2026 Season (actual · ROS · total)
2026	25	MLB	Detroit Tigers	106	90	26	8	0	2	16	25	0	1	1	.289	.396	.444	.841	.156	.381	24	15	.374	144	+5	-0	-1	-1	+3	0.6
ROS	25	MLB	DET	549	487	130	27	2	23	54	151	3	5	2	.267	.344	.472	.816	.205	.340	28	10	.360	134	+21	+0	-1	-6	+16	3.1
TOT	25	MLB	DET	655	577	156	35	2	25	70	176	3	6	3	.270	.352	.468	.820	.198	.346	27	11	.362	136	+26	+0	-2	-7	+19	3.6
▸ 2027+ Projections — Projections at projected PA · Park-neutral MLB equivalent · Marcel + aging curve
2027	26	MLB	DET	655	581	157	33	3	28	66	148	3	5	2	.270	.348	.482	.830	.212	.314	23	10	.362	135	+26	+0	-1	-7	+19	3.8
2028	27	MLB	DET	650	576	154	32	3	27	66	148	3	5	2	.267	.346	.474	.820	.207	.314	23	10	.362	135	+26	+0	-1	-7	+18	3.7
2029	28	MLB	DET	642	568	153	32	3	27	66	147	3	4	2	.269	.349	.479	.827	.210	.314	23	10	.361	134	+25	+0	-2	-7	+18	3.5
2030	29	MLB	DET	630	557	148	31	3	26	65	146	3	3	1	.266	.346	.472	.818	.206	.313	23	10	.359	133	+23	+0	-2	-7	+18	3.3
2031	30	MLB	DET	618	546	143	30	2	25	64	145	3	1	1	.262	.343	.462	.804	.200	.312	23	10	.356	130	+21	-0	-3	-7	+18	2.9
2032	31	MLB	DET	603	533	138	29	2	24	62	144	3	0	0	.259	.339	.456	.795	.197	.310	24	10	.352	127	+19	+0	-4	-6	+17	2.6
2033	32	MLB	DET	584	516	133	28	2	23	60	143	3	0	0	.258	.339	.453	.792	.196	.309	24	10	.347	124	+16	+0	-4	-6	+17	2.2
2034	33	MLB	DET	554	490	124	26	2	21	57	139	2	0	0	.253	.333	.443	.776	.190	.307	25	10	.341	119	+12	+0	-5	-6	+16	1.7
2035	34	MLB	DET	506	447	111	23	2	18	52	132	2	0	0	.248	.329	.430	.759	.181	.305	26	10	.334	114	+8	+0	-6	-5	+14	1.1
2036	35	MLB	DET	449	399	95	19	2	15	45	121	2	0	0	.238	.318	.409	.727	.170	.303	27	10	.325	107	+4	+0	-6	-5	+13	0.5
2037	36	MLB	DET	388	345	80	16	1	13	39	109	1	0	0	.232	.312	.397	.709	.165	.300	28	10	.316	100	-0	+0	-7	-4	+11	-0.0
2038	37	MLB	DET	323	287	65	13	1	10	32	94	1	0	0	.226	.306	.383	.690	.157	.295	29	10	.305	91	-3	+0	-7	-3	+9	-0.5
▸ Career Totals (MLE all levels + projections)
Career	—			10001	8905	2291	461	51	378	963	2613	56	60	18	.257	.334	.448	.781	.191	.321	26	10	.343	121	+234	+5	-53	-94	+283	38.3
/ 162G	—			650	579	149	30	3	25	63	170	4	4	1	.257	.335	.449	.784	.192	.320	26	10	.343	121	+15	+0	-3	-6	+18	2.5

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2019	18	A	West Michigan Whitecaps	108	96	21	2	2	2	6	26	3	4	0	.219	.286	.344	.629	.125	.268	24	6	.277	70	-4	+1	—	—	+3	0.0
2019	18	ROK	GCL Tigers West	43	37	13	3	0	2	5	12	1	0	0	.351	.442	.595	1.036	.243	.478	28	12	.453	205	+5	+0	—	—	+1	0.6
2021	20	AAA	Toledo Mud Hens	185	159	49	9	3	8	22	51	3	4	0	.308	.402	.553	.956	.245	.406	28	12	.415	176	+16	+1	—	—	+5	2.2
2021	20	AA	Erie SeaWolves	373	326	97	16	5	16	41	102	4	12	1	.298	.383	.525	.907	.227	.386	27	11	.396	161	+26	+2	—	—	+11	3.9
2022	21	MLB	Detroit Tigers	418	376	95	18	4	5	36	120	3	1	4	.253	.323	.362	.685	.109	.354	29	9	.308	94	-3	-1	-1	+2	+12	0.9
2022	21	AAA	Toledo Mud Hens	68	62	17	4	0	1	6	14	0	3	0	.274	.338	.387	.725	.113	.340	21	9	.327	109	+1	+1	—	—	+2	0.3
2023	22	MLB	Detroit Tigers	416	378	109	19	4	11	35	114	1	7	0	.288	.350	.447	.797	.159	.384	27	8	.353	128	+13	+1	-1	+1	+12	2.7
2024	23	MLB	Detroit Tigers	584	512	134	27	6	24	64	156	5	4	2	.262	.349	.479	.827	.217	.329	27	11	.364	136	+24	+0	+0	-6	+17	3.5
2025	24	MLB	Detroit Tigers	655	600	155	31	1	36	46	201	4	2	1	.258	.315	.493	.809	.235	.323	31	7	.351	127	+20	+0	-3	-7	+19	2.9
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			2073	1866	493	95	15	76	181	591	13	14	7	.264	.333	.453	.787	.189	.344	29	9	.346	123	+54	+0	-4	-10	+59	10.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Riley Greene (OGILVIE)	25	50	60	45	50	.266/.343/.472	.206	.313	27	6	23%	10%	134	+4.4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
●Michael Conforto 2018 · MLB	25	51→55	59→65	44→45	52	.267/.346/.485	.218	.313	26	4	23%	10%	137	+4.3	.267/.365/.490	.223	.321	28	5	24%	12%	147	+5.0	.268/.372/.484	.216	.322	27	5	24%	13%	141	+3.9
●Jay Bruce 2012 · MLB	25	48→55	58→65	43→50	53	.255/.333/.458	.203	.294	26	7	23%	10%	125	+3.5	.249/.322/.456	.207	.301	25	8	25%	10%	121	+3.2	.243/.311/.484	.240	.266	31	5	22%	9%	115	+2.8
★Kyle Schwarber 2017 · MLB	24	49→48	58→70	45	51	.252/.336/.457	.205	.320	26	6	29%	11%	126	+3.5	.234/.334/.475	.241	.283	33	4	29%	12%	130	+3.8	.219/.352/.476	.257	.251	36	4	29%	16%	129	+4.4
●Ben Grieve 2001 · MLB	25	53→57	56→55	49→45	56	.274/.352/.474	.201	.308	23	5	19%	10%	137	+4.3	.262/.360/.422	.160	.324	17	7	22%	12%	127	+3.6	.253/.364/.397	.145	.319	15	6	23%	13%	118	+2.3
●Hank Blalock 2006 · MLB	25	53→57	57→65	41→45	51	.274/.336/.472	.198	.303	24	2	19%	8%	130	+3.8	.270/.330/.444	.174	.301	20	4	17%	8%	120	+3.1	.276/.336/.453	.177	.303	19	3	15%	8%	118	+2.0
●Austin Kearns 2006 · MLB	26	48→58	57→60	46→45	52	.251/.336/.458	.207	.302	24	4	25%	10%	127	+3.6	.257/.346/.437	.180	.301	20	5	21%	11%	125	+3.5	.254/.350/.412	.158	.292	17	5	18%	11%	116	+2.6
★Anthony Rizzo 2015 · MLB	25	50→56	59→65	41→45	55	.263/.347/.476	.213	.287	27	6	19%	10%	136	+4.2	.278/.379/.510	.232	.296	27	9	16%	11%	157	+5.7	.281/.390/.519	.238	.293	28	9	15%	12%	152	+6.1
✕Jesús Sánchez 2023 · MLB	25	47→53	57→60	49→50	45	.247/.310/.445	.198	.304	25	5	27%	8%	113	+2.6	.245/.311/.423	.178	.306	21	10	26%	8%	107	+2.2	.242/.310/.410	.168	.298	19	13	25%	8%	100	+1.4
●Lars Nootbaar 2023 · MLB	25	45→53	56→55	48→50	56	.236/.325/.429	.194	.271	23	9	22%	11%	115	+2.7	.243/.339/.413	.170	.287	19	10	21%	12%	116	+2.8	.242/.341/.394	.152	.286	17	8	20%	13%	107	+1.9
★Carlos Pena 2003 · MLB	25	47→49	57→70	46→45	51	.247/.322/.449	.202	.294	24	5	25%	10%	118	+3.0	.246/.330/.450	.204	.299	25	6	25%	10%	121	+3.2	.249/.382/.545	.296	.282	39	2	26%	16%	156	+5.6
●Joc Pederson 2017 · MLB	25	44→52	59→65	45→55	57	.232/.342/.442	.210	.298	27	11	30%	14%	125	+3.5	.234/.328/.462	.228	.264	28	6	23%	11%	124	+3.4	.257/.362/.473	.216	.296	28	5	22%	12%	134	+3.0
✕Eloy Jiménez 2023 · MLB	26	52→56	57→65	45→40	46	.269/.325/.461	.191	.318	26	2	24%	7%	123	+3.3	.260/.311/.409	.149	.305	19	3	21%	7%	103	+1.9	.251/.301/.378	.127	.295	15	2	20%	6%	88	+0.5
★Pat Burrell 2002 · MLB	25	51→55	57→65	45→30	54	.259/.348/.463	.205	.326	24	3	27%	12%	133	+4.0	.255/.349/.475	.220	.305	27	2	24%	12%	136	+4.2	.263/.392/.497	.234	.304	30	0	22%	17%	152	+5.5
★Rafael Devers 2021 · MLB	24	52→58	59→65	42→45	47	.272/.324/.486	.214	.308	27	6	22%	7%	129	+3.7	.278/.345/.514	.236	.310	30	5	20%	8%	145	+4.9	.277/.351/.516	.240	.303	32	4	20%	9%	138	+4.7
★Carlos Santana 2011 · MLB	25	50→56	56→60	50→45	58	.259/.350/.458	.198	.292	22	7	20%	12%	132	+4.0	.247/.355/.436	.189	.279	21	6	19%	14%	128	+3.7	.255/.371/.460	.206	.265	24	3	15%	15%	131	+4.4
●Vinnie Pasquantino 2023 · MLB	25	48→49	57→60	50→40	55	.253/.328/.453	.199	.261	25	5	15%	9%	121	+3.2	.252/.320/.443	.191	.261	23	3	14%	8%	116	+2.8	.253/.317/.449	.195	.259	25	1	14%	8%	111	+2.1
●Adam LaRoche 2005 · MLB	25	52→55	55→65	47→40	48	.266/.324/.460	.194	.312	21	4	22%	8%	122	+3.3	.267/.333/.479	.212	.303	25	2	20%	9%	131	+3.9	.272/.347/.498	.226	.315	27	1	22%	10%	134	+4.0
●Japhet Amador 2012 · AAA	25	55	56→60	42→40	47	.283/.334/.471	.188	.310	24	4	18%	6%	129	+3.7	.259/.310/.438	.179	.286	24	3	19%	6%	111	+2.5	.264/.312/.476	.212	.286	32	0	21%	6%	119	+2.2
●Alex Kirilloff 2023 · MLB	25	51→60	53→55	46→45	46	.261/.320/.435	.174	.305	22	5	22%	6%	114	+2.7	.258/.326/.438	.180	.315	22	5	24%	8%	118	+3.0	.252/.328/.440	.188	.311	23	3	25%	8%	114	+1.3
●Carlos Quentin 2009 · MLB	26	50→52	58→60	46→45	54	.261/.359/.478	.217	.275	25	7	16%	9%	141	+4.6	.251/.343/.467	.216	.256	27	5	15%	9%	132	+4.0	.256/.353/.477	.221	.269	26	1	16%	9%	135	+2.7

Contract

Career Projections (MLE) Show advanced cols

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Career Path Comps

Career Projections (MLE)