Jesús Sánchez

LF Arizona Diamondbacks
Age 29 L/R 6'3" / 222 lbs MLB HR -11% Svc 5.686 · Ctrl thru 2027
Overview
MLBArb-3FA 2028
YearAgeLvl / TeamPAAVG/OBP/SLGHRSBwRC+WAR
202426MLBMIA537.252/.315/.41718161121.6
202527MLBHOU497.237/.305/.3951413950.2
202628INTLToros del Este27.273/.407/.27300112—
202628MLBARI315.254/.316/.40181950.0
2027PROJ29MLBARI314.259/.321/.4341061070.8
2028PROJ30MLBARI305.255/.317/.424941040.4
2029PROJ31MLBARI286.250/.311/.41292990.1
Last 3 seasons WAR 1.8  ·  Next 3 projected WAR 1.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.
ContractESTIMATED
Control thru2027Service5.686First FA2028
2027Arb-3$4M
Skills · percentileStatcast 2024-2026
Avg EV87
Barrel%72
xwOBA71
Bat Spd55
Speed27
CompsJared Young (age 29) · Brian Goodwin (age 29) · Josh Fields (age 29)
2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection
showingPROJ
wRC+†vL 79107vR 117
AVG/OBP/SLG.259 / .321 / .434
PA314
HR10
SB6
K%24
BB%7
BABIP313
ISO179
MLB%100%
Value2027 · WAR
BAT: +2.7 runs (wOBA-derived runs vs avg)+3BATRUN: +0.4 runs (SB/CS + UBR baserunning)+0RUNFLD: +1.0 runs (Defensive runs vs avg)+1FLDPOS: -3.4 runs (Positional adjustment)-3POSREP: +6.8 runs (Replacement-level credit)+7REPTotal WAR: +0.70+0.7WAR
trajectory · projected WAR by year
0.70.40.1272829
Tools · Splits · ContractCON 50 / POW 55
Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2024-2026
CONTACT50
xAVG
510.253
POWER55
Barrel%
7211.5
Avg EV
8791.6
Bat Spd
5571.9
EYE40
scouting grade only
SPEED50
Sprint
2726.4
Platoon Splits2024-2026 · 1112 PA
vs LHP
vs RHP
Edge
PA
190
922
—
wRC+
36
113
▶▶R
wOBA
221
335
▶▶R
ISO
092
177
▶▶R
BABIP
210
317
▶▶R
K%
29.5%
22.8%
▶▶R
BB%
6.3%
7.8%
▶▶R
Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status   Arb-3
MLB Debut   2020
Service   5.686 yrs.days
Team Control Through   2027
First FA Year   2028
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2027Arb-3$4M+0.7$3M+$0.0M (cut)
Totals $0.0M $3M +$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.
basis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

YearAge LvlTeam MLB% PAAB H2B3BHR BBSOHBP SBCS AVGOBPSLGOPS ISOBABIP K%BB% wOBAwRC+ BATRUNFLDPOSREP WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
201517 ROKDSL Rays — 268239 791374 20332 81 331387494881 163361 127 379 53 — — — — — —
201618 ROKPrinceton Rays — 226213 701087 9430 25 329356549905 221380 194 386 82 — — — — — —
201719 ABowling Green Hot Rods — 512475 14529415 32911 72 305350478828 173349 186 363 90 — — — — — —
201820 AAMontgomery Biscuits — 11098 21801 11211 11 214300327627 112263 1910 287 59 — — — — — —
201820 A+Charlotte Stone Crabs — 378359 10824210 15712 63 301332462795 162350 194 349 91 — — — — — —
201820 INTLToros del Este — 1715 3100 260 01 200294267561 67333 3512 264 65 — — — — — —
201921 AAANew Orleans Baby Cakes — 149128 29315 15352 00 227317383700 156264 2310 308 52 — — — — — —
201921 AAMontgomery Biscuits — 316287 791118 24652 54 275335404740 129327 218 329 80 — — — — — —
202022 MLBMiami Marlins — 2925 1100 4110 00 4017280252 4071 3814 141 -16 -4 +0 -0 -1 +1 -0.4
202022 INTLToros del Este — 3736 10211 1100 01 278297472770 194360 273 335 113 — — — — — —
202123 MLBMiami Marlins — 251227 578214 20783 01 251320489809 238316 318 353 128 +8 -0 -0 -5 +5 0.8
202123 AAAJacksonville Jumbo Shrimp — 155141 495410 12292 10 3484066521.059 305382 198 456 151 — — — — — —
202123 INTLToros del Este — 8471 231000 12151 10 324429465893 141411 1814 401 158 — — — — — —
202224 MLBMiami Marlins — 343313 6714313 26923 10 214281403683 188258 278 302 99 -1 +0 -2 +2 +7 0.7
202224 AAAJacksonville Jumbo Shrimp — 183159 49706 21393 41 308399465864 157377 2111 387 98 — — — — — —
202224 INTLToros del Este — 121109 28711 12240 10 257331367698 110321 2010 316 100 — — — — — —
202325 MLBMiami Marlins — 402360 9123314 381072 31 253328450778 197321 279 342 126 +12 +0 -2 -4 +9 1.5
202426 MLBMiami Marlins — 537489 12325118 411404 162 252315417732 166315 268 324 112 +7 +2 -0 -6 +12 1.6
202527 MLBHouston Astros — 497451 10721414 421102 133 237305395700 157283 228 312 95 -3 +1 -2 -5 +11 0.2
202628 MLBArizona Diamondbacks — 315284 721808 18758 12 254316401718 148311 246 317 95 -2 -1 -1 -4 +7 0.0
202628 INTLToros del Este — 2722 6000 362 00 273407273680 375 2211 333 112 — — — — — —
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career— — 23742149 5181101381 18961322 349 241309417726 176298 268 321 104 +10 +3 -7 -23 +51 3.6
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
201517 ROK MLEDSL Rays — 268246 52842 13402 81 211257301558 89232 155 246 53 — — — — — —
201618 ROK MLEPrinceton Rays — 226216 54765 6610 25 250270407678 157313 273 289 82 — — — — — —
201719 A MLEBowling Green Hot Rods — 512486 12822312 211271 72 263295395690 132329 254 301 90 — — — — — —
201820 AA MLEMontgomery Biscuits — 110102 21801 7241 11 206264314577 108262 226 255 59 — — — — — —
201820 A+ MLECharlotte Stone Crabs — 378363 9622110 111022 63 264290413703 149339 273 302 91 — — — — — —
201921 AAA MLENew Orleans Baby Cakes — 149133 25214 10482 00 188255308563 120237 327 245 52 — — — — — —
201921 AA MLEMontgomery Biscuits — 316293 731017 18812 54 249297362659 113311 266 286 80 — — — — — —
202022 MLB MLEMiami Marlins — 2925 1100 4110 00 4017280252 4071 3814 145 -16 -4 +0 -0 -1 +1 -0.4
202123 MLB MLEMiami Marlins — 251230 609215 17783 01 261320513833 252316 317 358 128 +8 -0 -0 -5 +5 0.8
202123 AAA MLEJacksonville Jumbo Shrimp — 155145 46538 8352 10 317361559920 241370 235 391 151 — — — — — —
202224 MLB MLEMiami Marlins — 343313 7015314 26923 10 224289425714 201258 278 314 99 -1 +0 -2 +2 +7 0.7
202224 AAA MLEJacksonville Jumbo Shrimp — 183165 43704 15483 41 261333376709 115344 268 313 98 — — — — — —
202325 MLB MLEMiami Marlins — 402361 9525315 371072 31 263335474809 211321 279 354 126 +12 +0 -2 -4 +9 1.5
202426 MLB MLEMiami Marlins — 537491 12727119 391404 162 259318434752 175315 267 333 112 +7 +2 -0 -6 +12 1.6
202527 MLB MLEHouston Astros — 497452 10620414 411102 133 235301389690 155283 228 308 95 -3 +1 -2 -5 +11 0.2
202628 MLB MLEArizona Diamondbacks — 315285 701608 17758 12 246306386692 140311 245 309 95 -2 -1 -1 -4 +7 0.0
201517 ROK MLEDSL Rays — 268246 52842 13402 81 211257301558 89238 155 246 53 — — — — — —
201517 ROK RAWDSL Rays — 268239 791374 20332 81 331387494881 163361 127 379 53 — — — — — —
201618 ROK MLEPrinceton Rays — 226216 54765 6610 25 250270407678 157320 273 289 82 — — — — — —
201618 ROK RAWPrinceton Rays — 226213 701087 9430 25 329356549905 221380 194 386 82 — — — — — —
201719 A MLEBowling Green Hot Rods — 512486 12822312 211271 72 263295395690 132330 254 301 90 — — — — — —
201719 A RAWBowling Green Hot Rods — 512475 14529415 32911 72 305350478828 173349 186 363 90 — — — — — —
201820 A+ MLE3 teams — 505482 12131111 181313 75 251282388670 137322 264 291 83 — — — — — —
201820 A+ RAW3 teams — 505472 13233211 28983 75 280324428752 148332 196 333 83 — — — — — —
201921 AA MLE2 teams — 465426 9812211 281284 54 230284345629 115297 286 273 71 — — — — — —
201921 AA RAW2 teams — 465415 10814213 391004 54 260330398727 137308 228 322 71 — — — — — —
202022 INTL MLE2 teams — 6657 2200 9250 01 3516770237 3562 3814 145 -16 — — — — — —
202022 INTL RAW2 teams — 6661 11311 5210 01 180242311554 131256 328 249 -16 — — — — — —
202123 MLB MLE3 teams — 490453 12716728 301376 21 280333532865 252343 286 370 137 +21 +0 -0 -5 +11 2.7
202123 MLB RAW3 teams — 490439 12923624 441226 21 294366538904 244357 259 394 137 +21 +0 -0 -5 +11 2.7
202224 MLB MLE3 teams — 647589 13927422 511736 61 236303407711 171296 278 314 98 -1 +1 -2 +2 +14 1.4
202224 MLB RAW3 teams — 647581 14428420 591556 61 248324413737 165305 249 329 98 -1 +1 -2 +2 +14 1.4
202325 MLB MLEMiami Marlins — 402361 9525315 371072 31 263335474809 211333 279 354 126 +12 +0 -2 -4 +9 1.5
202325 MLB RAWMiami Marlins — 402360 9123314 381072 31 253328450778 197321 279 342 126 +12 +0 -2 -4 +9 1.5
202426 MLB MLEMiami Marlins — 537491 12727119 391404 162 259318434752 175323 267 333 112 +7 +2 -0 -6 +12 1.6
202426 MLB RAWMiami Marlins — 537489 12325118 411404 162 252315417732 166315 268 324 112 +7 +2 -0 -6 +12 1.6
202527 MLB MLEHouston Astros — 497452 10620414 411102 133 235301389690 155279 228 308 95 -3 +1 -2 -5 +11 0.2
202527 MLB RAWHouston Astros — 497451 10721414 421102 133 237305395700 157283 228 312 95 -3 +1 -2 -5 +11 0.2
202628 MLB MLE2 teams — 342309 761709 188110 12 246309388697 142299 245 309 95 -2 -1 -1 -4 +7 0.1
202628 MLB RAW2 teams — 342306 781808 218110 12 255323392716 137315 246 318 95 -2 -1 -1 -4 +7 0.1
201517 ROK MLEDSL Rays — 268251 52842 13402 81 207257295552 88232 155 246 53 — — — — — —
201618 ROK MLEPrinceton Rays — 226218 54765 6610 25 248270404674 156313 273 289 82 — — — — — —
201719 A MLEBowling Green Hot Rods — 512485 12822312 211271 72 264295396691 132329 254 301 90 — — — — — —
201820 A+ MLE3 teams — 505479 12131111 181313 75 253282390673 138322 264 291 83 — — — — — —
201921 AA MLE2 teams — 465430 9812211 281284 54 228284342626 114287 286 273 71 — — — — — —
202022 INTL MLE2 teams — 6657 2200 9250 01 3516770237 3571 3814 145 -16 — — — — — —
202123 MLB MLE3 teams — 490451 12716728 301376 21 282333534868 253337 286 370 137 — — — — — —
202224 MLB MLE3 teams — 647585 13927422 511736 61 238303410714 173288 278 314 98 — — — — — —
202325 MLB MLEMiami Marlins — 402360 9525315 371072 31 264335475810 211321 279 354 126 — — — — — —
202426 MLB MLEMiami Marlins — 537489 12727119 391404 162 260318436754 176315 267 333 112 — — — — — —
202527 MLB MLEHouston Astros — 497451 10620414 411102 133 235301390691 155283 228 308 95 — — — — — —
202628 MLB MLE2 teams — 342311 761709 188110 12 244309386694 141311 245 309 95 — — — — — —
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
202426 MLB MLEMiami Marlins — 537489 12727119 391404 162 260318436754 176315 267 333 112 — — — — — —
202527 MLB MLEHouston Astros — 497451 10620414 411102 133 235301390691 155283 228 308 95 — — — — — —
202628 MLB MLE2 teams — 342311 761709 188110 12 244309386694 141311 245 309 95 — — — — — —
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
202729 MLB MLEARI 100% 414377 9519214 29985 82 253315425740 172302 247 327 107 +4 +1 +1 -4 +9 0.7
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
202729 MLB CTXARI 100% 314285 7517210 22744 62 259321434755 175313 247 333 107 +3 +0 +1 -3 +7 0.8
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
202830 MLB MLEARI 100% 305277 6914110 21734 41 249311416727 167300 247 321 104 +1 +0 -1 -3 +7 0.4
202931 MLB MLEARI 100% 286261 641319 20693 21 244305404709 161295 247 314 99 -0 +0 -2 -3 +6 0.1
202830 MLB CTXARI 100% 305277 701619 21734 41 255317424741 169310 247 327 104 +1 +0 -1 -3 +7 0.4
202931 MLB CTXARI 100% 286261 651419 20693 21 250311412723 163305 247 320 99 -0 +0 -2 -3 +6 0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career— A+C — 29652687 6531401599 23075529 4011 243310417726 174300 258 322 97 +11 +4 -10 -29 +64 4.1
/ 162G— A+C — 650589 14331322 501666 92 243308418726 175300 268 322 97 +2 +1 -2 -6 +14 0.9
Career— MLE — 58625391 133025638178 374147651 8232 247302407709 161305 256 311 97 +14 +4 -9 -32 +71 4.9
/ 162G— MLE — 650598 14728420 411646 94 246301406707 161304 256 311 97 +3 +1 -2 -6 +14 1.0

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2022 AAAJacksonville Jumbo Shrimp · 183 PAwOBA .377 → .313 (−65)K% 21.3% → 26.5%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA21.31%÷0.966×1.200——26.48%
BB% (unintentional) /PA11.48%÷0.978×0.690—×1.0338.37%
HBP% /PA1.64%—×0.940—×1.0331.59%
Singles /BIP30.00%÷1.054×0.930×1.008×1.03327.58%
Doubles /BIP5.83%÷0.898×0.830×1.008×1.0335.62%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷0.930×0.970×1.008×1.0330.00%
Home runs /BIP5.00%÷1.032×0.700—×1.0333.50%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 106, 1B 111, 2B 80, 3B 86, K 93, BB 96 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.008.

Result: wOBA .377 → .313; ISO .157 → .118; BABIP .377 → .344. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAAJacksonville Jumbo Shrimp · 155 PAwOBA .441 → .391 (−50)K% 18.7% → 22.8%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA18.71%÷0.985×1.200——22.80%
BB% (unintentional) /PA7.10%÷0.994×0.690—×1.0485.16%
HBP% /PA1.29%—×0.940—×1.0481.27%
Singles /BIP26.79%÷0.971×0.930×1.003×1.04826.95%
Doubles /BIP4.46%÷0.933×0.830×1.003×1.0484.17%
Triples /BIP3.57%÷1.109×0.920×1.003×1.0483.11%
Home runs /BIP8.93%÷0.886×0.700—×1.0487.39%

Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 77, 1B 94, 2B 87, 3B 122, K 97, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 27.2 → +4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.003.

Result: wOBA .441 → .391; ISO .305 → .253; BABIP .382 → .370. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AAMontgomery Biscuits · 316 PAwOBA .323 → .286 (−37)K% 20.6% → 25.5%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA20.57%÷0.985×1.220——25.48%
BB% (unintentional) /PA7.59%÷0.963×0.680—×1.0425.59%
HBP% /PA0.63%—×0.840—×1.0420.55%
Singles /BIP26.58%÷0.978×0.920×0.985×1.04225.65%
Doubles /BIP4.95%÷1.028×0.910×0.985×1.0424.50%
Triples /BIP0.45%÷1.150×0.880×0.985×1.0420.35%
Home runs /BIP3.60%÷0.920×0.800—×1.0423.27%

Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 84, 1B 96, 2B 106, 3B 130, K 97, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 24.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.985.

Result: wOBA .323 → .286; ISO .129 → .113; BABIP .327 → .311. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AAANew Orleans Baby Cakes · 149 PAwOBA .306 → .245 (−62)K% 23.5% → 31.9%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA23.49%÷0.950×1.290——31.91%
BB% (unintentional) /PA10.07%÷1.085×0.710—×1.0506.92%
HBP% /PA1.34%—×0.980—×1.0501.38%
Singles /BIP21.51%÷0.971×0.900×0.950×1.05019.89%
Doubles /BIP3.23%÷0.952×0.810×0.950×1.0502.74%
Triples /BIP1.08%÷0.900×0.810×0.950×1.0500.97%
Home runs /BIP5.38%÷1.100×0.780—×1.0504.00%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 120, 1B 94, 2B 90, 3B 80, K 90, BB 117 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (5.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .306 → .245; ISO .156 → .116; BABIP .264 → .237. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 A+Charlotte Stone Crabs · 378 PAwOBA .340 → .302 (−38)K% 18.8% → 27.1%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA18.78%÷0.983×1.420——27.13%
BB% (unintentional) /PA3.70%÷1.022×0.750—×1.0272.79%
HBP% /PA0.53%—×0.930—×1.0270.51%
Singles /BIP25.00%÷1.031×0.920×1.042×1.02723.88%
Doubles /BIP8.33%÷1.012×0.960×1.042×1.0278.46%
Triples /BIP0.69%÷1.150×0.810×1.042×1.0270.52%
Home runs /BIP3.47%÷0.857×0.880—×1.0273.66%

Factors used: league row FSL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 71, 1B 106, 2B 102, 3B 130, K 97, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.042.

Result: wOBA .340 → .302; ISO .162 → .150; BABIP .350 → .339. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 AAMontgomery Biscuits · 110 PAwOBA .277 → .255 (−22)K% 19.1% → 22.1%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA19.09%÷1.055×1.220——22.07%
BB% (unintentional) /PA9.09%÷1.031×0.680—×1.0506.30%
HBP% /PA0.91%—×0.840—×1.0500.80%
Singles /BIP15.58%÷0.965×0.920×1.017×1.05015.88%
Doubles /BIP10.39%÷1.007×0.910×1.017×1.05010.03%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.010×0.880×1.017×1.0500.00%
Home runs /BIP1.30%÷0.984×0.800—×1.0501.11%

Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 97, 1B 93, 2B 101, 3B 102, K 111, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 24.8 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.017.

Result: wOBA .277 → .255; ISO .112 → .106; BABIP .263 → .262. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 ABowling Green Hot Rods · 512 PAwOBA .354 → .301 (−54)K% 17.8% → 24.9%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA17.77%÷0.973×1.360——24.85%
BB% (unintentional) /PA5.86%÷1.013×0.690—×1.0304.11%
HBP% /PA0.20%—×0.780—×1.0300.16%
Singles /BIP25.26%÷0.978×0.920×1.030×1.03025.20%
Doubles /BIP7.55%÷1.086×0.830×1.030×1.0306.12%
Triples /BIP1.04%÷1.121×0.910×1.030×1.0300.90%
Home runs /BIP3.91%÷0.985×0.800—×1.0303.27%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 97, 1B 96, 2B 117, 3B 124, K 95, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.0 → +3.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.030.

Result: wOBA .354 → .301; ISO .173 → .135; BABIP .349 → .329. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2016 ROKPrinceton Rays · 226 PAwOBA .380 → .289 (−92)K% 19.0% → 27.0%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA19.03%÷1.000×1.420——27.02%
BB% (unintentional) /PA3.98%÷1.000×0.640—×1.0082.57%
HBP% /PA0.00%—×0.740—×1.0080.00%
Singles /BIP26.47%÷1.000×0.840×1.020×1.00822.85%
Doubles /BIP5.88%÷1.000×0.740×1.020×1.0084.47%
Triples /BIP4.71%÷1.000×0.740×1.020×1.0083.58%
Home runs /BIP4.12%÷1.000×0.800—×1.0083.32%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 19.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.020.

Result: wOBA .380 → .289; ISO .221 → .161; BABIP .380 → .313. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .