Kirk Nieuwenhuis

PosCF

B/TL/R

Born1987-08-07

Age (2027)39

No MLB projection yet. Career stats below are historical.

Overview

AAALAST SEASON 2018

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2016	28	MLBMIL	392	.209/.324/.385	13	8	103	0.9
2017	29	AAAColorado Spri…	247	.244/.365/.361	4	5	50	—	.180/.270/.258
2017	29	MLBMIL	31	.115/.258/.269	1	0	56	-0.1
2018	30	AAASEA	324	.214/.339/.336	4	5	49	—	.176/.258/.272
2019	31	No MLB games played
2020	32	No MLB games played
2021	33	No MLB games played
2022	34	No MLB games played
2023	35	No MLB games played
2024	36	No MLB games played
2025	37	No MLB games played
2026	38	No MLB games played

Last 3 seasons WAR 0.8

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2015-2017

Avg EV73

Barrel%67

xwOBA48

Speed33

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2009	21	AA	Binghamton Mets	—	36	32	13	3	1	1	4	9	0	1	1	406	472	656	1.128	250	545	25	11	488	170	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	21	A+	St. Lucie Mets	—	547	482	132	35	5	16	53	118	10	16	4	274	358	467	825	193	332	22	10	365	92	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	22	AAA	Buffalo Bisons	—	133	120	27	8	1	2	11	39	1	0	0	225	295	358	654	133	316	29	8	293	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	22	AA	Binghamton Mets	—	433	394	114	35	2	16	30	93	1	13	7	289	341	510	851	221	338	21	7	366	100	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	22	INTL	Mesa Solar Sox	—	104	90	23	6	1	1	12	25	2	2	3	256	356	378	734	122	344	24	12	335	113	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	23	AAA	Buffalo Bisons	—	221	188	56	17	2	6	32	59	1	5	2	298	403	505	908	207	407	27	14	401	114	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	24	MLB	New York Mets	—	314	282	71	12	1	7	25	98	2	4	4	252	317	376	693	124	358	31	8	308	99	-0	-1	-4	+1	+7	0.3
2013	25	MLB	New York Mets	—	108	95	18	3	1	3	12	32	0	2	0	189	280	337	617	147	246	30	11	278	74	-3	+0	+1	+2	+2	0.2
2013	25	AAA	Las Vegas 51s	—	330	282	70	15	2	14	40	78	2	6	2	248	346	465	810	216	293	24	12	352	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	26	MLB	New York Mets	—	130	112	29	14	1	3	16	39	0	4	0	259	352	482	834	223	361	30	12	361	127	+4	+1	+1	+1	+3	1.0
2014	26	AAA	Las Vegas 51s	—	229	211	56	13	3	11	15	56	2	3	3	265	320	512	832	246	310	24	7	361	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	27	MLB	New York Mets	—	141	128	25	11	0	4	10	49	3	2	2	195	270	375	645	180	280	35	7	289	87	-2	-0	-2	-3	+3	-0.5
2015	27	AAA	Las Vegas 51s	—	119	105	34	6	3	8	10	21	1	2	0	324	388	667	1.055	343	333	18	8	439	116	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	28	MLB	Milwaukee Brewers	—	392	335	70	18	1	13	56	133	1	8	9	209	324	385	709	176	302	34	14	321	103	+2	-2	-1	+1	+8	0.9
2017	29	MLB	Milwaukee Brewers	—	31	26	3	1	0	1	4	15	1	0	0	115	258	269	527	154	200	48	13	251	56	-2	+0	-1	+1	+1	-0.1
2017	29	AAA	Colorado Springs Sky Sox	—	247	205	50	12	0	4	38	67	1	5	0	244	365	361	726	117	338	27	15	331	50	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	30	AAA	Tacoma Rainiers	—	324	271	58	17	2	4	48	99	3	5	0	214	339	336	674	122	318	31	15	311	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	1116	978	216	59	4	31	123	366	7	20	15	221	312	384	697	164	316	33	11	312	97	-4	-2	-6	+4	+24	1.7
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2009	21	AA MLE	Binghamton Mets	—	36	33	13	3	1	1	3	11	0	1	1	394	444	636	1.081	242	530	31	8	420	170	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	21	A+ MLE	St. Lucie Mets	—	547	495	116	32	4	13	40	167	10	16	4	234	305	394	699	160	326	31	7	304	92	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	22	AAA MLE	Buffalo Bisons	—	133	125	25	6	1	2	6	48	1	0	0	200	242	312	554	112	300	36	5	241	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	22	AA MLE	Binghamton Mets	—	433	402	106	32	2	12	22	116	1	13	7	264	304	443	746	179	327	27	5	316	100	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	23	AAA MLE	Buffalo Bisons	—	221	199	53	15	2	5	21	69	1	5	2	266	339	437	777	171	385	31	10	336	114	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	24	MLB MLE	New York Mets	—	314	282	73	13	1	7	25	98	2	4	4	259	324	387	710	128	358	31	8	315	99	-0	-1	-4	+1	+7	0.3
2013	25	MLB MLE	New York Mets	—	108	96	18	3	1	3	11	32	0	2	0	188	271	333	604	146	246	30	10	277	74	-3	+0	+1	+2	+2	0.2
2013	25	AAA MLE	Las Vegas 51s	—	330	294	57	12	1	10	28	106	2	6	2	194	269	344	612	150	256	32	8	267	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	26	MLB MLE	New York Mets	—	130	115	30	15	1	3	13	39	0	4	0	261	336	487	823	226	361	30	10	356	127	+4	+1	+1	+1	+3	1.0
2014	26	AAA MLE	Las Vegas 51s	—	229	216	45	9	3	8	10	76	2	3	3	208	250	389	639	181	279	33	4	277	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	27	MLB MLE	New York Mets	—	141	128	26	12	0	4	10	49	3	2	2	203	277	391	667	188	280	35	7	296	87	-2	-0	-2	-3	+3	-0.5
2015	27	AAA MLE	Las Vegas 51s	—	119	108	28	5	2	6	7	28	1	2	0	259	310	509	820	250	281	24	6	339	116	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	28	MLB MLE	Milwaukee Brewers	—	392	336	70	19	1	12	55	133	1	8	9	208	321	378	699	170	302	34	14	321	103	+2	-2	-1	+1	+8	0.9
2017	29	MLB MLE	Milwaukee Brewers	—	31	26	3	1	0	1	4	15	1	0	0	115	258	269	527	154	200	48	13	251	56	-2	+0	-1	+1	+1	-0.1
2017	29	AAA MLE	Colorado Springs Sky Sox	—	247	217	39	8	0	3	26	91	1	5	0	180	270	258	529	78	280	37	11	242	50	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	30	AAA MLE	Tacoma Rainiers	—	324	290	51	15	2	3	29	124	3	5	0	176	258	272	530	97	284	38	9	240	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	21	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	583	528	129	35	5	14	43	178	10	17	5	244	313	409	722	165	341	31	7	311	97	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	21	A+ RAW	2 teams	—	583	514	145	38	6	17	57	127	10	17	5	282	365	479	843	196	345	22	10	372	97	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	22	AA MLE	3 teams	—	670	624	154	45	3	16	33	194	4	15	10	247	289	405	694	159	329	29	5	298	88	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	22	AA RAW	3 teams	—	670	604	164	49	4	19	53	157	4	15	10	272	334	460	795	189	335	23	8	346	88	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	23	AAA MLE	Buffalo Bisons	—	221	199	53	15	2	5	21	69	1	5	2	266	339	437	777	171	384	31	10	336	114	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	23	AAA RAW	Buffalo Bisons	—	221	188	56	17	2	6	32	59	1	5	2	298	403	505	908	207	407	27	14	401	114	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	24	MLB MLE	New York Mets	—	314	282	73	13	1	7	25	98	2	4	4	259	324	387	710	128	369	31	8	315	99	-0	-1	-4	+1	+7	0.3
2012	24	MLB RAW	New York Mets	—	314	282	71	12	1	7	25	98	2	4	4	252	317	376	693	124	358	31	8	308	99	-0	-1	-4	+1	+7	0.3
2013	25	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	438	390	75	15	2	13	39	138	2	8	2	192	269	341	610	149	257	32	9	269	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	25	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	438	377	88	18	3	17	52	110	2	8	2	233	329	432	762	199	282	25	12	334	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	26	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	359	331	75	24	4	11	23	115	2	7	3	227	281	423	704	196	308	32	6	306	93	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	26	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	359	323	85	27	4	14	31	95	2	7	3	263	331	502	833	238	327	26	9	361	93	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	27	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	260	236	54	16	2	10	17	77	4	4	2	229	292	441	733	212	291	30	7	316	100	-0	+0	-2	-3	+6	0.1
2015	27	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	260	233	59	17	3	12	20	70	4	4	2	253	323	506	829	253	307	27	8	358	100	-0	+0	-2	-3	+6	0.1
2016	28	MLB MLE	Milwaukee Brewers	—	392	336	70	19	1	12	55	133	1	8	9	208	321	378	699	170	304	34	14	321	103	+2	-2	-1	+1	+8	0.9
2016	28	MLB RAW	Milwaukee Brewers	—	392	335	70	18	1	13	56	133	1	8	9	209	324	385	709	176	302	34	14	321	103	+2	-2	-1	+1	+8	0.9
2017	29	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	278	243	42	9	0	4	30	106	2	5	0	173	269	259	528	86	281	38	11	243	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	29	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	278	231	53	13	0	5	42	82	2	5	0	229	353	351	703	121	329	29	15	322	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	30	AAA MLE	Tacoma Rainiers	—	324	290	51	15	2	3	29	124	3	5	0	176	258	272	530	97	291	38	9	240	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	30	AAA RAW	Tacoma Rainiers	—	324	271	58	17	2	4	48	99	3	5	0	214	339	336	674	122	318	31	15	311	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	21	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	583	525	129	35	5	14	43	178	10	17	5	246	313	411	725	166	339	31	7	311	97	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	22	AA MLE	3 teams	—	670	628	154	45	3	16	33	194	4	15	10	245	289	403	692	158	321	29	5	298	88	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	23	AAA MLE	Buffalo Bisons	—	221	197	53	15	2	5	21	69	1	5	2	269	339	442	781	173	385	31	10	336	114	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	24	MLB MLE	New York Mets	—	314	284	73	13	1	7	25	98	2	4	4	257	324	384	707	127	358	31	8	315	99	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	25	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	438	394	75	15	2	13	39	138	2	8	2	190	269	338	607	147	254	32	9	269	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	26	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	359	331	75	24	4	11	23	115	2	7	3	227	281	423	704	196	309	32	6	306	93	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	27	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	260	237	54	16	2	10	17	77	4	4	2	228	292	439	731	211	280	30	7	316	100	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	28	MLB MLE	Milwaukee Brewers	—	392	333	70	19	1	12	55	133	1	8	9	210	321	381	703	171	302	34	14	321	103	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	29	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	278	244	42	9	0	4	30	106	2	5	0	172	269	258	527	86	271	38	11	243	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	30	AAA MLE	Tacoma Rainiers	—	324	289	51	15	2	3	29	124	3	5	0	176	258	273	531	97	284	38	9	240	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	1116	978	216	59	4	31	123	366	7	20	15	221	312	384	697	164	316	33	11	312	86	-4	-2	-6	+4	+24	1.7
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	570	125	34	2	18	72	213	4	12	9	219	312	381	692	161	313	33	11	312	86	-2	-1	-3	+2	+14	1.0
Career	—	MLE		—	3839	3459	776	206	22	95	315	1232	31	78	37	224	295	379	674	155	317	32	8	296	86	-4	-2	-6	+4	+24	1.7
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	586	132	35	4	16	53	209	5	13	6	225	295	381	676	155	319	32	8	296	86	-2	-1	-3	+2	+14	1.0

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2018 AAATacoma Rainiers · 324 PAwOBA .304 → .240 (−64)K% 30.6% → 38.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	30.56%	÷1.031	×1.290	—	—	38.22%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	14.51%	÷1.103	×0.710	—	×0.962	8.98%
HBP% /PA	0.93%	—	×0.980	—	×0.962	0.87%
Singles /BIP	20.35%	÷1.006	×0.900	×1.037	×0.962	18.16%
Doubles /BIP	9.88%	÷0.885	×0.810	×1.037	×0.962	9.03%
Triples /BIP	1.16%	÷0.900	×0.810	×1.037	×0.962	1.04%
Home runs /BIP	2.33%	÷0.918	×0.780	—	×0.962	1.90%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 84, 1B 101, 2B 77, 3B 80, K 106, BB 121 — applied at half strength. Age: age 31 vs a level average of 27.2 → −3.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.037.

Result: wOBA .304 → .240; ISO .122 → .104; BABIP .318 → .284. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 AAAColorado Springs Sky Sox · 247 PAwOBA .324 → .242 (−82)K% 27.1% → 36.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	27.13%	÷0.953	×1.290	—	—	36.71%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	14.98%	÷0.995	×0.710	—	×0.972	10.39%
HBP% /PA	0.40%	—	×0.980	—	×0.972	0.39%
Singles /BIP	24.64%	÷1.018	×0.900	×1.026	×0.972	21.72%
Doubles /BIP	8.70%	÷1.163	×0.810	×1.026	×0.972	6.04%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.150	×0.810	×1.026	×0.972	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	2.90%	÷0.933	×0.780	—	×0.972	2.36%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 87, 1B 104, 2B 133, 3B 130, K 91, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 30 vs a level average of 27.2 → −2.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.026.

Result: wOBA .324 → .242; ISO .117 → .083; BABIP .338 → .280. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2015 AAALas Vegas 51s · 119 PAwOBA .434 → .339 (−95)K% 17.6% → 23.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	17.65%	÷0.977	×1.290	—	—	23.29%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	8.40%	÷1.010	×0.710	—	×0.992	5.86%
HBP% /PA	0.84%	—	×0.980	—	×0.992	0.82%
Singles /BIP	20.24%	÷0.983	×0.900	×1.012	×0.992	18.59%
Doubles /BIP	7.14%	÷1.042	×0.810	×1.012	×0.992	5.57%
Triples /BIP	3.57%	÷1.061	×0.810	×1.012	×0.992	2.74%
Home runs /BIP	9.52%	÷1.099	×0.780	—	×0.992	6.71%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 120, 1B 97, 2B 108, 3B 112, K 95, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.012.

Result: wOBA .434 → .339; ISO .343 → .247; BABIP .333 → .281. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2014 AAALas Vegas 51s · 229 PAwOBA .352 → .277 (−75)K% 24.5% → 33.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	24.45%	÷0.945	×1.290	—	—	33.37%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	6.55%	÷1.060	×0.710	—	×1.003	4.40%
HBP% /PA	0.87%	—	×0.980	—	×1.003	0.86%
Singles /BIP	18.71%	÷0.991	×0.900	×1.048	×1.003	17.85%
Doubles /BIP	8.39%	÷1.057	×0.810	×1.048	×1.003	6.75%
Triples /BIP	1.94%	÷0.900	×0.810	×1.048	×1.003	1.83%
Home runs /BIP	7.10%	÷0.925	×0.780	—	×1.003	6.00%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 85, 1B 98, 2B 111, 3B 80, K 89, BB 112 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.048.

Result: wOBA .352 → .277; ISO .246 → .189; BABIP .310 → .279. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2013 AAALas Vegas 51s · 330 PAwOBA .343 → .267 (−76)K% 23.6% → 32.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	23.64%	÷0.952	×1.290	—	—	32.04%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	11.82%	÷0.994	×0.710	—	×1.018	8.59%
HBP% /PA	0.61%	—	×0.980	—	×1.018	0.60%
Singles /BIP	19.12%	÷1.018	×0.900	×1.024	×1.018	17.62%
Doubles /BIP	7.35%	÷1.023	×0.810	×1.024	×1.018	6.07%
Triples /BIP	0.98%	÷1.150	×0.810	×1.024	×1.018	0.72%
Home runs /BIP	6.86%	÷1.078	×0.780	—	×1.018	5.06%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 116, 1B 104, 2B 105, 3B 130, K 90, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.024.

Result: wOBA .343 → .267; ISO .216 → .156; BABIP .293 → .256. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2011 AAABuffalo Bisons · 221 PAwOBA .391 → .336 (−55)K% 26.7% → 31.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	26.70%	÷1.026	×1.200	—	—	31.22%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	14.48%	÷1.088	×0.690	—	×1.048	9.62%
HBP% /PA	0.45%	—	×0.940	—	×1.048	0.45%
Singles /BIP	24.03%	÷1.008	×0.930	×1.014	×1.048	23.57%
Doubles /BIP	13.18%	÷0.977	×0.830	×1.014	×1.048	11.90%
Triples /BIP	1.55%	÷0.981	×0.970	×1.014	×1.048	1.63%
Home runs /BIP	4.65%	÷1.139	×0.840	—	×1.048	3.59%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 128, 1B 102, 2B 95, 3B 96, K 105, BB 118 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 27.2 → +4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.014.

Result: wOBA .391 → .336; ISO .207 → .179; BABIP .407 → .385. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2010 AABinghamton Mets · 433 PAwOBA .360 → .316 (−44)K% 21.5% → 26.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	21.48%	÷0.975	×1.220	—	—	26.88%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	6.93%	÷0.975	×0.700	—	×1.027	5.11%
HBP% /PA	0.23%	—	×0.850	—	×1.027	0.20%
Singles /BIP	20.27%	÷1.023	×0.970	×1.039	×1.027	20.50%
Doubles /BIP	11.63%	÷0.982	×0.860	×1.039	×1.027	10.87%
Triples /BIP	0.66%	÷1.150	×0.950	×1.039	×1.027	0.59%
Home runs /BIP	5.32%	÷1.048	×0.780	—	×1.027	4.06%

Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 110, 1B 105, 2B 96, 3B 130, K 95, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.039.

Result: wOBA .360 → .316; ISO .221 → .181; BABIP .338 → .327. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2010 AAABuffalo Bisons · 133 PAwOBA .276 → .241 (−35)K% 29.3% → 35.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	29.32%	÷0.984	×1.200	—	—	35.76%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	6.02%	÷0.958	×0.690	—	×1.050	4.55%
HBP% /PA	0.75%	—	×0.940	—	×1.050	0.74%
Singles /BIP	19.75%	÷0.969	×0.930	×1.027	×1.050	20.45%
Doubles /BIP	9.88%	÷1.133	×0.830	×1.027	×1.050	7.81%
Triples /BIP	1.23%	÷1.150	×0.970	×1.027	×1.050	1.12%
Home runs /BIP	2.47%	÷1.026	×0.840	—	×1.050	2.12%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 105, 1B 94, 2B 127, 3B 130, K 97, BB 92 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.027.

Result: wOBA .276 → .241; ISO .133 → .107; BABIP .316 → .300. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).