Rafael Devers — OGILVIE

Rafael DeversDH San Francisco Giants

Age 29 L/R 6'0" / 235 lbs MLB BB -3% Svc 8.407 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 3.9 · 2027

wRC+†vL 76119vR 137

AVG/OBP/SLG.257 / .356 / .494

PA729

HR37

K%24

BB%12

xwOBA.285

Barrel%9.0%

MLB%100%

Scouting · now → future

HIT

50→50

PWR

60→60

SPD

35→35

EYE

65↘50

trajectory · 10 yrs

3.9peak

2026

Contract

CONFIRMED · hand-curated extension

Status FA

MLB Debut 2017

Service 8.407 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	Ext / FA-deal	$31M	+3.3	$26M	-$5M
2027	Ext / FA-deal	$31M	+3.9	$32M	+$0.7M
2028	Ext / FA-deal	$31M	+3.5	$30M	-$2M
2029	Ext / FA-deal	$31M	+3.0	$26M	-$5M
2030	Ext / FA-deal	$31M	+2.4	$22M	-$10M
2031	Ext / FA-deal	$31M	+1.8	$17M	-$15M
2032	Ext / FA-deal	$31M	+1.0	$10M	-$22M
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$220M		$162M	-$57M

Underwater contract
Projected production over the remaining contract is worth -$57M less than the salary owed. Most often this reflects an aging-curve fade that was visible at signing — the team paid a premium for the early years.

Career Projections (MLE)

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2014	17	ROK	GCL Red Sox	302	275	66	12	4	5	21	72	3	5	1	.240	.301	.367	.668	.127	.303	24	7	.294	83	-6	+1	+0	+1	+9	0.5
2015	18	A	2 teams	555	524	128	31	1	11	16	118	8	3	2	.244	.277	.370	.648	.126	.292	21	3	.277	70	-19	-0	+0	+2	+16	-0.1
2016	19	A+	2 teams	624	594	139	28	6	12	27	158	1	18	6	.234	.268	.362	.630	.128	.298	25	4	.275	69	-22	+1	+0	+2	+18	-0.1
2017	20	AA	3 teams	598	558	156	30	3	29	38	138	1	3	4	.280	.327	.500	.827	.220	.324	23	6	.352	127	+18	-1	-4	+2	+17	3.3
2018	21	MLB	2 teams	512	471	109	23	0	21	39	128	0	5	2	.231	.290	.414	.704	.183	.272	25	8	.301	88	-7	+0	-4	+2	+15	0.6
2019	22	MLB	Boston Red Sox	702	647	194	44	4	32	48	119	4	8	8	.300	.352	.529	.881	.229	.325	17	7	.373	144	+35	-2	+14	+3	+20	7.1
2020	23	MLB	Boston Red Sox	248	232	61	14	2	12	13	67	3	0	0	.263	.310	.496	.806	.233	.320	27	5	.346	123	+6	+0	-2	+1	+7	1.2
2021	24	MLB	Boston Red Sox	664	591	163	35	1	39	62	143	7	5	5	.276	.352	.536	.888	.261	.300	22	9	.372	143	+32	-1	-7	+2	+19	4.6
2022	25	MLB	Boston Red Sox	614	555	161	42	1	26	50	114	6	3	1	.290	.355	.510	.865	.220	.323	19	8	.363	136	+25	+0	+0	+2	+17	4.6
2023	26	MLB	Boston Red Sox	656	580	156	31	0	36	62	126	11	5	1	.269	.351	.509	.859	.240	.285	19	9	.362	135	+26	+1	-5	+2	+19	4.4
2024	27	MLB	Boston Red Sox	601	525	141	30	6	30	67	147	3	3	0	.269	.355	.520	.875	.251	.314	24	11	.351	127	+18	+1	-3	+2	+17	3.5
2025	28	MLB	San Francisco Giants	729	607	155	34	0	35	112	192	6	1	1	.255	.377	.484	.861	.229	.312	26	15	.369	141	+34	-0	-2	-13	+21	4.0
▸ 2026 Season (actual · ROS · total)
2026	29	MLB	San Francisco Giants	105	100	23	3	0	2	5	33	0	0	0	.230	.267	.320	.587	.090	.323	31	5	.255	53	-6	+0	-1	-2	+3	-0.6
ROS	29	MLB	SF	624	547	140	28	2	28	67	162	5	2	1	.256	.342	.468	.810	.212	.308	26	11	.355	130	+21	+0	-3	+2	+18	3.9
TOT	29	MLB	SF	729	647	163	31	2	30	72	195	5	2	1	.252	.331	.445	.777	.193	.313	27	10	.340	119	+15	+0	-4	+0	+21	3.3
▸ 2027+ Projections — Projections at projected PA · Park-neutral MLB equivalent · Marcel + aging curve
2027	30	MLB	SF	710	622	158	31	2	32	77	140	5	1	0	.254	.341	.465	.806	.211	.275	20	11	.352	127	+22	+0	-5	+3	+20	4.1
2028	31	MLB	SF	695	610	151	30	1	30	75	140	5	0	0	.248	.335	.448	.782	.200	.274	20	11	.348	124	+19	+0	-6	+2	+20	3.6
2029	32	MLB	SF	676	593	146	29	1	29	73	140	5	0	0	.246	.334	.445	.779	.199	.272	21	11	.343	121	+16	+0	-6	+2	+19	3.2
2030	33	MLB	SF	646	568	137	27	1	27	69	138	4	0	0	.241	.328	.435	.762	.194	.271	21	11	.337	116	+12	+0	-7	+2	+18	2.6
2031	34	MLB	SF	596	524	124	24	1	24	63	132	4	0	0	.237	.323	.424	.747	.187	.268	22	11	.330	111	+7	+0	-7	+2	+17	1.9
2032	35	MLB	SF	538	473	109	21	1	20	57	125	3	0	0	.230	.317	.406	.723	.175	.266	23	11	.321	104	+3	+0	-8	+2	+15	1.2
▸ Career Totals (MLE all levels + projections)
Career	—			11290	10096	2594	544	37	478	1036	2499	84	62	32	.257	.331	.460	.791	.203	.295	22	9	.341	119	+240	-0	-55	+25	+320	54.0
/ 162G	—			650	581	149	31	2	28	60	144	5	4	2	.256	.331	.461	.793	.205	.294	22	9	.341	119	+14	+0	-3	+1	+18	3.1

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2014	17	ROK	GCL Red Sox	302	261	84	17	5	7	35	50	3	5	1	.322	.408	.506	.914	.184	.372	17	12	.400	164	+22	+1	—	—	+9	3.2
2015	18	A	Greenville Drive	508	469	135	38	1	11	24	84	8	3	2	.288	.333	.443	.777	.156	.326	17	5	.340	119	+11	-0	—	—	+14	2.5
2015	18	INTL	Leones del Escogido	47	43	12	3	0	0	4	8	0	0	0	.279	.340	.349	.689	.070	.343	17	9	.315	99	-0	+0	—	—	+1	0.1
2016	19	A+	Salem Red Sox	546	503	142	32	8	11	40	94	1	18	6	.282	.336	.443	.780	.161	.328	17	7	.344	122	+13	+1	—	—	+15	3.1
2016	19	INTL	Leones del Escogido	78	74	18	4	0	0	4	13	0	0	0	.243	.282	.297	.579	.054	.295	17	5	.264	60	-4	+0	—	—	+2	-0.1
2017	20	MLB	Boston Red Sox	240	222	63	14	0	10	18	57	0	3	1	.284	.338	.482	.819	.198	.342	24	8	.361	134	+9	+0	-4	+2	+7	1.5
2017	20	AAA	Pawtucket Red Sox	38	35	14	1	0	2	3	8	0	0	0	.400	.447	.600	1.047	.200	.480	21	8	.460	210	+5	+0	—	—	+1	0.6
2017	20	AA	Portland Sea Dogs	320	287	86	19	3	18	31	55	1	0	3	.300	.370	.575	.945	.275	.316	17	10	.408	171	+26	-1	—	—	+9	3.4
2018	21	MLB	Boston Red Sox	490	450	108	24	0	21	38	121	0	5	2	.240	.299	.433	.733	.193	.281	25	8	.323	105	+3	+0	-4	+2	+14	1.5
2018	21	AAA	Pawtucket Red Sox	22	21	7	2	0	1	1	6	0	0	0	.333	.364	.571	.935	.238	.429	27	5	.408	170	+2	+0	—	—	+1	0.2
2019	22	MLB	Boston Red Sox	702	647	201	54	4	32	48	119	4	8	8	.311	.362	.555	.917	.244	.339	17	7	.398	163	+50	-2	+14	+3	+20	8.6
2020	23	MLB	Boston Red Sox	248	232	61	16	1	11	13	67	3	0	0	.263	.310	.483	.793	.220	.325	27	5	.348	124	+7	+0	-2	+1	+7	1.3
2021	24	MLB	Boston Red Sox	664	591	165	37	1	38	62	143	7	5	5	.279	.355	.538	.893	.259	.307	22	9	.387	155	+41	-1	-7	+2	+19	5.5
2022	25	MLB	Boston Red Sox	614	555	164	42	1	27	50	114	6	3	1	.295	.360	.521	.881	.225	.329	19	8	.385	152	+36	+0	+0	+2	+17	5.8
2023	26	MLB	Boston Red Sox	656	580	157	34	0	33	62	126	11	5	1	.271	.352	.500	.852	.229	.292	19	9	.374	144	+33	+1	-5	+2	+19	5.1
2024	27	MLB	Boston Red Sox	601	525	143	34	5	28	67	147	3	3	0	.272	.358	.516	.874	.244	.323	24	11	.379	148	+33	+1	-3	+2	+17	5.0
2025	28	MLB	San Francisco Giants	729	607	153	33	0	35	112	192	6	1	1	.252	.374	.479	.853	.227	.307	26	15	.377	146	+38	-0	-2	-13	+21	4.5
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			4944	4409	1215	288	12	235	470	1086	40	33	19	.276	.351	.506	.857	.231	.315	22	10	.374	145	+249	-1	-13	+3	+140	38.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Rafael Devers (OGILVIE)	29	50	60	35	50	.253/.339/.461	.208	.277	33	3	19%	11%	130	+4.6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Ji Man Choi 2020 · MLB	29	50→51	55→60	44→45	54	.255/.343/.449	.194	.308	23	5	24%	11%	127	+3.6	.246/.346/.427	.181	.314	20	3	26%	13%	122	+3.3	.234/.344/.403	.169	.315	17	0	28%	14%	107	+1.1
●Marcus Thames 2005 · MLB	28	47→46	56→70	40	50	.247/.322/.441	.194	.285	24	5	22%	9%	117	+2.9	.256/.323/.508	.252	.289	34	5	24%	8%	134	+4.1	.252/.316/.521	.269	.276	38	3	25%	8%	134	+2.5
●Kyle Seager 2017 · MLB	29	52→59	57→60	42→50	54	.271/.341/.473	.202	.287	25	5	16%	9%	132	+4.0	.248/.317/.444	.196	.270	24	3	18%	8%	115	+2.8	.225/.309/.443	.218	.238	29	4	21%	10%	108	+1.8
●Mike Moustakas 2018 · MLB	29	50→54	63→65	39→45	49	.271/.324/.498	.227	.269	32	2	14%	6%	133	+4.0	.255/.319/.480	.225	.262	30	4	17%	8%	126	+3.5	.246/.321/.469	.223	.254	29	3	17%	9%	115	+2.1
●Kendrys Morales 2012 · MLB	29	54→60	62→65	37→40	49	.289/.344/.521	.232	.308	31	5	18%	7%	147	+5.0	.270/.324/.453	.183	.306	24	2	20%	7%	120	+3.1	.265/.332/.466	.201	.291	27	0	19%	8%	122	+3.4
●Max Kepler 2021 · MLB	28	44→54	60	39→50	57	.237/.325/.455	.218	.241	28	5	17%	11%	121	+3.2	.233/.320/.428	.195	.252	24	8	18%	10%	112	+2.6	.233/.321/.423	.190	.255	23	6	19%	10%	108	+1.8
●Mike Yastrzemski 2020 · MLB	29	45→49	55→65	42→50	45	.238/.301/.431	.192	.292	23	6	27%	8%	105	+2.1	.243/.323/.460	.217	.294	25	6	26%	10%	121	+3.2	.230/.321/.425	.195	.272	22	5	23%	11%	107	+1.7
●Joc Pederson 2019 · MLB	27	43→52	61→65	41→55	54	.237/.326/.468	.231	.262	28	6	22%	10%	125	+3.5	.238/.321/.472	.234	.259	31	4	22%	9%	124	+3.4	.257/.362/.473	.216	.296	28	5	22%	12%	134	+3.0
●Jack Cust 2008 · MLB	29	48→55	57→60	34→40	63	.238/.365/.437	.200	.322	25	2	31%	16%	133	+4.0	.242/.370/.452	.210	.331	27	3	31%	17%	139	+4.4	.241/.370/.434	.193	.329	25	2	31%	16%	131	+3.8
●Juan Rivera 2007 · MLB	29	57→62	55→60	33→40	52	.292/.344/.481	.189	.298	24	4	12%	7%	136	+4.2	.272/.319/.458	.186	.276	24	3	12%	6%	120	+3.1	.266/.323/.425	.159	.277	20	3	12%	7%	109	+2.0
●Nick Swisher 2009 · MLB	28	46→55	57→60	40	62	.243/.357/.444	.201	.277	24	3	22%	14%	131	+3.9	.253/.356/.461	.208	.292	24	3	21%	13%	135	+4.2	.260/.364/.466	.207	.299	24	1	21%	13%	134	+4.2
●C.J. Cron 2019 · MLB	29	47→53	59→65	41→40	44	.254/.317/.468	.214	.291	28	4	24%	6%	121	+3.2	.255/.326/.481	.226	.289	30	3	23%	8%	129	+3.7	.247/.320/.442	.196	.287	25	0	23%	8%	111	+2.3
●Michael Conforto 2021 · MLB	28	53→55	59→65	42→45	57	.272/.371/.485	.213	.325	26	6	24%	12%	147	+5.0	.253/.352/.420	.167	.305	20	5	22%	11%	124	+3.4	.236/.331/.409	.173	.280	21	2	23%	11%	108	+1.8
✕Joe Crede 2007 · MLB	29	49→53	58→60	36→30	48	.261/.310/.462	.202	.257	27	2	13%	6%	118	+3.0	.248/.302/.435	.187	.249	25	2	13%	7%	107	+2.2	.228/.290/.404	.176	.230	23	0	14%	7%	91	+0.6
●Willson Contreras 2022 · MLB	30	46→56	58→60	40→45	50	.244/.341/.452	.207	.298	27	6	27%	10%	128	+3.6	.247/.347/.454	.207	.292	25	7	24%	10%	131	+3.9	.257/.354/.454	.198	.315	24	6	25%	10%	130	+3.0
●Lucas Duda 2016 · MLB	30	47→54	59→65	36→30	56	.249/.351/.464	.215	.295	27	3	25%	12%	134	+4.1	.240/.331/.471	.231	.281	30	2	25%	11%	128	+3.7	.226/.314/.460	.234	.262	32	1	27%	10%	111	+1.5
●Jose Guillen 2006 · MLB	30	55→57	58→60	40→45	46	.288/.344/.496	.208	.307	26	3	16%	6%	140	+4.5	.268/.326/.449	.181	.296	21	4	17%	6%	120	+3.1	.269/.324/.430	.162	.299	19	3	17%	5%	111	+2.2
✕Jeremy Giambi 2003 · MLB	28	52→58	55	39→40	65	.265/.382/.461	.196	.310	22	2	21%	15%	145	+4.9	.247/.367/.436	.189	.305	22	6	24%	15%	134	+4.1	.195/.340/.352	.156	.247	19	4	27%	17%	101	+0.5
●Matt Chapman 2022 · MLB	29	43→53	62→65	44→50	52	.235/.326/.466	.232	.285	31	3	29%	11%	124	+3.4	.237/.327/.439	.202	.303	24	5	28%	11%	118	+3.0	.244/.337/.451	.208	.299	24	10	25%	11%	122	+3.2
✕Bryan LaHair 2012 · MLB	29	47→54	60→65	42→40	43	.253/.303/.468	.214	.306	28	3	27%	6%	116	+2.8	.243/.305/.425	.182	.319	23	5	30%	8%	105	+2.1	.216/.286/.345	.129	.297	15	3	31%	9%	71	-0.2

Contract

Career Projections (MLE) Show advanced cols

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Career Path Comps

Career Projections (MLE)