Rafael Devers — OGILVIE

Rafael DeversDH San Francisco Giants

Age 29 L/R 6'0" / 235 lbs MLB HR -8%H -3% Svc 8.407 · Ctrl thru 2033

2026 ROS PROJECTION407 act + 322 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†vL 96143vR 162

AVG/OBP/SLG.260 / .348 / .498

PA322

HR16

K%26

BB%11

BABIP313

ISO238

MLB%100%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · Splits · ContractCON 56 / POW 69

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2024-2026

CONTACT56

Whiff%

5210.7%

xwOBA

900.357

POWER69

Barrel%

8914.0

Avg EV

9093.1

Bat Spd

4971.2

EYE43

Chase%

9023.8%

SPEED41

Sprint

2226.1

DEFENSE52

scouting grade only

Platoon Splits2024-2026 · 1443 PA

vs LHP

vs RHP

Edge

503

940

—

wRC+

152

▶▶R

wOBA

313

384

▶▶R

ISO

155

262

▶▶R

BABIP

327

306

◀L

29.0%

24.4%

▶▶R

BB%

7.2%

13.1%

▶▶R

Contract CONFIRMED · hand-curated extension

Status FA

MLB Debut 2017

Service 8.407 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext	$13M	+1.4	$11M	-$2M
2027	Ext	$31M	+4.2	$31M	+$3M
2028	Ext	$31M	+3.8	$26M	+$0.7M
2029	Ext	$31M	+3.3	$21M	-$2M
2030	Ext	$31M	+2.3	$14M	-$7M
2031	Ext	$31M	+1.4	$8M	-$11M
2032	Ext	$31M	+0.6	$2M	-$15M
2033	Ext	$31M	—	—	—
Totals		$232M		$112M	-$48M

Underwater contract
Projected production over the remaining contract is worth -$48M less than the salary owed. Most often this reflects an aging-curve fade that was visible at signing — the team paid a premium for the early years.

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2014	17	ROK	GCL Red Sox	—	302	275	66	12	4	5	21	72	3	5	1	240	301	367	668	127	303	24	7	294	83	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	17	ROK	GCL Red Sox	—	302	261	84	17	5	7	35	50	3	5	1	322	408	506	914	184	372	17	12	400	164	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	18	A	2 teams	—	555	522	133	31	1	10	18	118	8	3	2	255	290	375	666	121	307	21	3	286	77	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	18	A	2 teams	—	555	512	147	41	1	11	28	92	8	3	2	287	334	436	769	148	328	17	5	338	117	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	19	A+	2 teams	—	624	593	141	27	5	18	28	169	1	18	6	238	273	391	665	153	301	27	4	286	77	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	19	A+	2 teams	—	624	577	160	36	8	11	44	107	1	18	6	277	330	425	754	147	323	17	7	334	114	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	20	AA	3 teams	—	598	559	151	28	3	27	37	142	1	3	4	270	317	476	792	206	317	24	6	338	116	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	20	AA	3 teams	—	598	544	163	34	3	30	52	120	1	3	4	300	362	539	900	239	337	20	9	393	159	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	21	MLB	2 teams	—	512	471	109	23	0	21	39	128	0	5	2	231	290	414	704	183	272	25	8	299	87	-8	+0	-4	+2	+15	0.5
2018	21	MLB	2 teams	—	512	471	115	26	0	22	39	127	0	5	2	244	302	439	741	195	287	25	8	326	108	+5	+0	-4	+2	+15	1.7
2019	22	MLB	Boston Red Sox	—	702	647	193	48	5	32	48	119	4	8	8	298	351	536	887	238	323	17	7	373	143	+34	-2	+14	+3	+20	7.0
2019	22	MLB	Boston Red Sox	—	702	647	201	54	4	32	48	119	4	8	8	311	362	555	917	244	339	17	7	398	163	+50	-2	+14	+3	+20	8.6
2020	23	MLB	Boston Red Sox	—	248	232	58	14	1	11	13	67	3	0	0	250	298	461	760	211	305	27	5	332	112	+3	+0	-2	+1	+7	0.9
2020	23	MLB	Boston Red Sox	—	248	232	61	16	1	11	13	67	3	0	0	263	310	483	793	220	325	27	5	348	124	+7	+0	-2	+1	+7	1.3
2021	24	MLB	Boston Red Sox	—	664	591	158	33	1	38	62	143	7	5	5	267	344	519	863	252	290	22	9	364	137	+27	-1	-7	+2	+19	4.1
2021	24	MLB	Boston Red Sox	—	664	591	165	37	1	38	62	143	7	5	5	279	355	538	893	259	307	22	9	387	155	+41	-1	-7	+2	+19	5.5
2022	25	MLB	Boston Red Sox	—	614	555	157	38	1	27	50	114	6	3	1	283	349	501	850	218	312	19	8	354	129	+20	+0	+0	+2	+17	4.1
2022	25	MLB	Boston Red Sox	—	614	555	164	42	1	27	50	114	6	3	1	295	360	521	881	225	329	19	8	385	152	+36	+0	+0	+2	+17	5.8
2023	26	MLB	Boston Red Sox	—	656	580	150	30	0	33	62	126	11	5	1	259	342	481	823	222	276	19	9	347	124	+18	+1	-5	+2	+19	3.5
2023	26	MLB	Boston Red Sox	—	656	580	157	34	0	33	62	126	11	5	1	271	352	500	852	229	292	19	9	374	144	+33	+1	-5	+2	+19	5.1
2024	27	MLB	Boston Red Sox	—	601	525	138	30	6	28	67	147	3	3	0	263	350	503	852	240	309	24	11	349	125	+17	+1	-3	+2	+17	3.4
2024	27	MLB	Boston Red Sox	—	601	525	143	34	5	28	67	147	3	3	0	272	358	516	874	244	323	24	11	379	148	+33	+1	-3	+2	+17	5.0
2025	28	MLB	San Francisco Giants	—	729	607	161	35	0	38	112	192	6	1	1	265	385	511	896	245	323	26	15	378	148	+39	-0	-2	-13	+21	4.6
2025	28	MLB	San Francisco Giants	—	729	607	153	33	0	35	112	192	6	1	1	252	374	479	853	227	307	26	15	377	146	+38	-0	-2	-13	+21	4.5
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	29	MLB	SF	—	407	365	91	25	1	19	38	111	1	0	0	249	322	479	801	230	303	27	9	340	119	+9	+0	-1	-7	+12	1.2
YTD	29	MLB	SF	—	407	365	91	25	1	19	38	111	1	0	0	249	322	479	801	230	303	27	9	349	125	+12	+0	-1	-7	+12	1.5
ROS	29	MLB	SF	100%	322	281	73	17	1	16	36	85	2	1	0	260	348	498	846	238	313	26	11	366	139	+14	+0	-2	+1	+9	2.3
ROS	29	MLB	SF	100%	322	281	72	17	1	15	36	85	2	1	0	256	345	484	829	228	306	26	11	355	130	+11	+0	-2	+1	+9	1.9
FULL	29	MLB	SF	—	729	646	163	42	2	34	74	196	3	1	0	252	332	481	813	229	306	27	10	347	124	+19	+0	-4	-6	+21	3.1
TOT	29	MLB	SF	—	729	646	164	42	2	35	74	196	3	1	0	254	333	488	821	234	307	27	10	352	127	+23	+0	-4	-6	+21	3.4
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	30	MLB	SF	100%	660	579	150	36	1	32	73	176	3	1	0	259	345	491	836	231	313	27	11	364	137	+28	+0	-7	+2	+19	4.3
2028	31	MLB	SF	100%	660	579	147	35	1	31	73	178	3	1	0	254	340	478	819	225	309	27	11	359	133	+25	+0	-7	+2	+19	3.9
2029	32	MLB	SF	100%	660	579	145	34	1	31	73	180	3	1	0	250	337	473	811	223	303	27	11	352	128	+21	+0	-8	+2	+19	3.4
2030	33	MLB	SF	100%	584	513	123	28	1	26	64	163	2	1	0	240	326	450	777	211	296	28	11	343	121	+14	+0	-8	+2	+17	2.5
2031	34	MLB	SF	100%	535	469	109	24	1	23	59	152	2	0	0	232	321	435	756	203	286	28	11	332	112	+7	+0	-9	+2	+15	1.6
2032	35	MLB	SF	100%	478	421	93	20	0	20	52	140	2	0	0	221	309	411	720	190	275	29	11	319	102	+1	+0	-9	+2	+14	0.7
2033	36	MLB	SF	100%	416	367	76	16	0	16	45	125	1	0	0	207	295	381	677	174	264	30	11	305	91	-4	+0	-9	+1	+12	-0.0
2027	30	MLB	SF	100%	660	579	147	35	1	31	73	176	3	1	0	254	340	478	819	225	306	27	11	353	128	+21	+0	-7	+2	+19	3.6
2028	31	MLB	SF	100%	660	579	144	34	1	30	73	178	3	1	0	249	336	466	802	218	302	27	11	349	125	+19	+0	-7	+2	+19	3.3
2029	32	MLB	SF	100%	660	579	140	33	1	29	73	180	3	1	0	242	330	453	782	211	297	27	11	342	120	+15	+0	-8	+2	+19	2.8
2030	33	MLB	SF	100%	584	513	121	28	1	25	64	163	2	1	0	236	323	441	764	205	290	28	11	333	113	+9	+0	-8	+2	+17	2.0
2031	34	MLB	SF	100%	535	469	107	24	1	22	59	152	2	0	0	228	317	424	741	196	280	28	11	322	105	+3	+0	-9	+2	+15	1.1
2032	35	MLB	SF	100%	478	421	90	19	0	19	52	140	2	0	0	214	303	394	697	181	269	29	11	310	95	-3	+0	-9	+2	+14	0.4
2033	36	MLB	SF	100%	416	367	75	15	0	16	45	125	1	0	0	204	293	376	669	172	258	30	11	296	85	-7	+0	-9	+1	+12	-0.3
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	9259	8197	2111	493	18	422	945	2285	58	38	19	258	338	477	815	219	305	25	10	356	130	+317	+0	-73	+19	+262	53.5
/ 162G	—			—	650	575	149	35	1	30	66	160	4	3	1	259	339	480	819	221	307	25	10	356	130	+22	+0	-5	+1	+18	3.8
Career	—			—	11120	9945	2531	559	33	483	1032	2736	71	64	31	254	329	463	792	209	302	25	9	340	118	+232	+0	-73	+24	+315	50.8
/ 162G	—			—	650	581	148	33	2	28	60	160	4	4	2	255	328	463	791	208	303	25	9	340	118	+14	+0	-4	+1	+18	3.0

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2014	17	ROK	GCL Red Sox	—	302	261	84	17	5	7	35	50	3	5	1	322	408	506	914	184	372	17	12	400	164	+22	+1	—	—	+9	3.2
2015	18	A	Greenville Drive	—	508	469	135	38	1	11	24	84	8	3	2	288	333	443	777	156	326	17	5	340	119	+11	-0	—	—	+14	2.5
2015	18	INTL	Leones del Escogido	—	47	43	12	3	0	0	4	8	0	0	0	279	340	349	689	70	343	17	9	315	99	-0	+0	—	—	+1	0.1
2016	19	A+	Salem Red Sox	—	546	503	142	32	8	11	40	94	1	18	6	282	336	443	780	161	328	17	7	344	122	+13	+1	—	—	+15	3.1
2016	19	INTL	Leones del Escogido	—	78	74	18	4	0	0	4	13	0	0	0	243	282	297	579	54	295	17	5	264	60	-4	+0	—	—	+2	-0.1
2017	20	MLB	Boston Red Sox	—	240	222	63	14	0	10	18	57	0	3	1	284	338	482	819	198	342	24	8	361	134	+9	+0	-4	+2	+7	1.5
2017	20	AAA	Pawtucket Red Sox	—	38	35	14	1	0	2	3	8	0	0	0	400	447	600	1.047	200	480	21	8	460	210	+5	+0	—	—	+1	0.6
2017	20	AA	Portland Sea Dogs	—	320	287	86	19	3	18	31	55	1	0	3	300	370	575	945	275	316	17	10	408	171	+26	-1	—	—	+9	3.4
2018	21	MLB	Boston Red Sox	—	490	450	108	24	0	21	38	121	0	5	2	240	299	433	733	193	281	25	8	323	105	+3	+0	-4	+2	+14	1.5
2018	21	AAA	Pawtucket Red Sox	—	22	21	7	2	0	1	1	6	0	0	0	333	364	571	935	238	429	27	5	408	170	+2	+0	—	—	+1	0.2
2019	22	MLB	Boston Red Sox	—	702	647	201	54	4	32	48	119	4	8	8	311	362	555	917	244	339	17	7	398	163	+50	-2	+14	+3	+20	8.6
2020	23	MLB	Boston Red Sox	—	248	232	61	16	1	11	13	67	3	0	0	263	310	483	793	220	325	27	5	348	124	+7	+0	-2	+1	+7	1.3
2021	24	MLB	Boston Red Sox	—	664	591	165	37	1	38	62	143	7	5	5	279	355	538	893	259	307	22	9	387	155	+41	-1	-7	+2	+19	5.5
2022	25	MLB	Boston Red Sox	—	614	555	164	42	1	27	50	114	6	3	1	295	360	521	881	225	329	19	8	385	152	+36	+0	+0	+2	+17	5.8
2023	26	MLB	Boston Red Sox	—	656	580	157	34	0	33	62	126	11	5	1	271	352	500	852	229	292	19	9	374	144	+33	+1	-5	+2	+19	5.1
2024	27	MLB	Boston Red Sox	—	601	525	143	34	5	28	67	147	3	3	0	272	358	516	874	244	323	24	11	379	148	+33	+1	-3	+2	+17	5.0
2025	28	MLB	San Francisco Giants	—	729	607	153	33	0	35	112	192	6	1	1	252	374	479	853	227	307	26	15	377	146	+38	-0	-2	-13	+21	4.5
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	4944	4409	1215	288	12	235	470	1086	40	33	19	276	351	506	857	231	315	22	10	374	145	+249	-1	-13	+3	+140	38.6

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 18 projected seasons	18	10,073	470	39	260	338	485	-78	-17	52.7	45.1
	/162	664	31	3	260	338	485	-5.1	-1.1	3.5	pk7: 37
#1Nelson Cruzlast yr '23 career totals — 18 seasons, 8,389 PA	18	8,389	464	84	274	343	513	-89	-28	50.7	42.8
	/162	664	37	7	274	343	513	-7.1	-2.2	4.0	pk7: 35
#2Curtis Grandersonlast yr '19 AS×3SS career totals — 15 seasons, 8,278 PA	15	8,278	344	153	249	337	466	-10	-4	47.5	41.9
	/162	664	28	12	249	337	466	-0.8	-0.3	3.8	pk7: 36
#3Ryan Zimmermanlast yr '21 career totals — 16 seasons, 7,402 PA	16	7,402	284	43	277	341	475	-25	+13	44.3	40.6
	/162	664	25	4	277	341	475	-2.2	+1.2	4.0	pk7: 37
#4Torii Hunterlast yr '15 career totals — 16 seasons, 9,251 PA	16	9,251	344	185	278	332	465	-25	-22	46.3	37.8
	/162	664	25	13	278	332	465	-1.8	-1.6	3.3	pk7: 29
#5J.D. Martinezlast yr '24 career totals — 14 seasons, 6,865 PA	14	6,865	331	26	283	348	516	-68	-53	39.8	36.5
	/162	664	32	3	283	348	516	-6.6	-5.1	3.9	pk7: 33
#6Edwin Encarnaciónlast yr '20 career totals — 16 seasons, 8,126 PA	16	8,126	424	61	260	350	496	-77	-92	41.9	34.3
	/162	664	35	5	260	350	496	-6.3	-7.5	3.4	pk7: 27

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Rafael Devers (OGILVIE)	29	40→56	59→69	41	43	254/333/488	234	307	35	1	27%	10%	127	+3.4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
★Chris Davis 2015 · MLB	29	42→52	64→70	43→40	49	234/322/476	242	287	34	4	31%	10%	126	+3.5	227/328/464	237	291	33	3	32%	12%	125	+3.5	222/328/456	233	288	33	1	33%	13%	117	+3.0
★Matt Olson 2023 · MLB	29	46→54	64→70	46→40	57	251/342/498	247	274	31	3	22%	12%	139	+4.4	263/357/514	251	302	32	2	24%	12%	149	+5.1	265/363/511	245	310	32	1	24%	12%	145	+5.7
●Jesús Aguilar 2019 · MLB	29	47→50	63→65	46→40	48	258/328/493	235	300	33	2	26%	9%	133	+4.0	259/337/460	201	297	27	2	22%	10%	128	+3.6	255/335/439	185	284	24	0	20%	10%	117	+1.8
✕Matt Adams 2018 · MLB	29	48→57	60→65	43→40	46	259/312/480	221	297	29	3	24%	7%	123	+3.3	244/301/473	229	286	33	3	27%	7%	117	+2.9	213/266/406	193	259	30	0	31%	6%	80	+0.2
●Lucas Duda 2016 · MLB	30	46→54	60→65	36→30	56	245/347/466	221	287	27	3	25%	12%	134	+4.1	238/328/471	233	278	30	2	26%	11%	127	+3.6	227/315/460	233	265	31	1	27%	10%	113	+1.6
●Rhys Hoskins 2022 · MLB	29	44→54	63→65	43→45	58	239/345/486	247	271	30	5	24%	13%	137	+4.3	239/325/456	217	284	28	4	26%	10%	121	+3.2	231/322/431	200	280	27	3	27%	11%	112	+2.2
●Josh Bell 2022 · MLB	29	48→58	60→65	44→45	57	259/343/475	216	280	28	2	20%	11%	134	+4.1	259/342/433	174	295	21	1	19%	11%	122	+3.3	255/338/419	164	292	19	0	19%	10%	113	+2.7
✕Bryan LaHair 2012 · MLB	29	48→55	62→65	44→40	42	259/307/488	230	310	31	3	28%	6%	123	+3.3	240/301/420	180	319	23	6	30%	8%	102	+1.9	211/280/343	132	291	15	3	31%	9%	69	-0.3
★Kyle Schwarber 2022 · MLB	29	43→47	67→70	42→45	56	244/347/501	257	280	36	3	27%	13%	142	+4.6	222/338/482	260	257	37	5	29%	14%	134	+4.1	241/362/519	278	282	40	6	29%	15%	147	+5.0
✕Jared Walsh 2022 · MLB	29	51→54	63→65	45→30	47	268/333/505	237	321	31	3	26%	8%	137	+4.3	215/284/387	172	294	22	4	33%	8%	87	+0.8	180/255/326	147	257	20	2	37%	8%	55	-0.8
●Logan Morrison 2018 · MLB	30	44→54	62→65	46→45	56	243/335/474	231	266	31	5	22%	12%	131	+3.9	232/312/471	239	247	34	4	23%	9%	121	+3.2	216/291/456	240	216	35	1	22%	8%	105	+1.1
●C.J. Cron 2019 · MLB	29	47→53	60	41→40	44	253/317/470	218	290	29	4	24%	6%	123	+3.3	249/322/467	218	283	29	3	23%	8%	124	+3.4	234/308/421	187	270	24	0	23%	8%	100	+1.6
●Brandon Moss 2013 · MLB	29	45→50	62→65	43→45	44	244/306/470	226	291	30	7	28%	7%	118	+3.0	250/330/484	234	303	31	4	27%	10%	131	+3.9	241/329/462	222	294	29	2	27%	10%	118	+2.7
●Joc Pederson 2021 · MLB	29	43→53	68→70	42→55	51	248/331/517	269	257	37	4	22%	9%	141	+4.5	252/334/467	215	292	27	4	23%	9%	128	+3.7	263/368/491	227	304	29	5	22%	12%	142	+3.3
●Adam LaRoche 2009 · MLB	29	52→55	58→65	40	53	271/343/488	217	311	25	2	22%	10%	137	+4.3	260/333/457	197	317	23	3	24%	10%	124	+3.4	253/346/452	199	285	26	3	21%	12%	119	+3.1
●Mike Yastrzemski 2020 · MLB	29	47→51	57→65	42→50	45	244/308/445	201	301	24	6	27%	8%	111	+2.5	252/332/480	228	305	26	6	25%	10%	131	+3.9	241/333/470	229	288	26	5	25%	11%	124	+2.5
★Mike Napoli 2011 · MLB	29	48→57	62→65	44→50	49	256/335/489	233	300	31	6	26%	9%	134	+4.1	262/356/511	249	314	32	5	26%	12%	148	+5.1	259/364/508	249	320	32	2	28%	13%	145	+3.9
✕Justin Bour 2018 · MLB	30	52→56	63→65	47→40	55	280/354/510	229	307	32	3	20%	10%	147	+5.0	237/333/438	201	280	27	4	25%	12%	120	+3.1	210/318/400	190	247	26	2	26%	13%	99	+0.9
●Matt Chapman 2022 · MLB	29	42→52	61→65	44→50	52	229/322/453	224	285	29	4	30%	11%	120	+3.1	236/326/438	202	300	24	6	28%	11%	117	+2.9	246/339/455	209	302	24	10	25%	11%	123	+3.3
★Khris Davis 2017 · MLB	29	44→51	68→70	43→45	46	250/314/511	261	280	37	4	26%	8%	132	+4.0	249/326/521	272	286	39	3	28%	9%	140	+4.5	243/325/506	263	277	39	1	28%	10%	131	+3.9