Nick Castellanos

RF San Diego Padres

Age 35 R/R 6'3" / 203 lbs MLB HR +5% Svc 12.576 · Ctrl thru 2027

Overview

MLBExt / FA-dealFA 2028

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR
2024	32	MLBPHI	659	.254/.312/.431	23	6	104	-0.2
2025	33	MLBPHI	589	.250/.297/.400	17	4	92	-1.2
2026	34	MLBSD	122	.191/.225/.339	4	2	51	-0.6
2027PROJ	35	MLBSD	227	.255/.301/.419	7	3	103	0.2
2028PROJ	36	MLBSD	165	.242/.287/.391	5	1	91	-0.8

Last 3 seasons WAR -2.0 · Next 2 projected WAR -0.6Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2027Service12.576First FA2028Options2

2027Ext / FA-deal$1M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2024-2026

xwOBA58

Barrel%48

Speed43

Avg EV36

Bat Spd36

CompsNick Hundley (age 35) · Miguel Olivo (age 35) · José Hernández (age 35)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†vL 105103vR 95

AVG/OBP/SLG.255 / .301 / .419

PA227

HR7

K%23

BB%5

BABIP303

ISO156

MLB%100%

Value2027 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · Splits · Contract

ToolsStatcast %ile · 2024-2026

CONTACT

xAVG

540.255

POWER

Barrel%

487.9

Avg EV

3688.1

Bat Spd

3669.8

SPEED

Sprint

4327.2

Platoon Splits2024-2026 · 1291 PA

vs LHP

vs RHP

Edge

358

933

—

wRC+

107

◀L

wOBA

326

304

◀L

ISO

189

150

◀◀L

BABIP

301

288

◀L

24.6%

21.0%

▶R

BB%

5.9%

5.6%

◀L

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status FA

MLB Debut 2013

Service 12.576 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2027

First FA Year 2028

OPTDEF 20%

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Ext / FA-deal	$1M	+0.1	$0.4M	-$0.6M
Totals		$1M		$0.4M	-$0.6M

Options · projected decision
2027	MUTUAL OPT	$1.0M / $0.0M buyout	DECLINE
2028	MUTUAL OPT	$20.0M / $2.0M buyout	DECLINE

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2010	18	ROK	GCL Tigers	—	29	24	8	2	0	0	4	5	0	0	1	333	429	417	845	83	400	17	14	372	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	19	A	West Michigan Whitecaps	—	562	507	158	36	3	7	45	130	3	3	2	312	371	436	807	124	402	23	8	357	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	20	AA	Erie SeaWolves	—	341	322	85	15	1	7	14	76	2	5	4	264	299	382	681	118	322	22	4	301	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	20	A+	Lakeland Flying Tigers	—	243	215	87	17	3	3	22	42	3	3	2	405	467	553	1.020	149	486	17	9	446	144	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	20	INTL	Mesa Solar Sox	—	110	99	24	6	0	1	10	31	0	2	0	242	312	333	645	91	338	28	9	292	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	21	MLB	Detroit Tigers	—	18	18	5	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	278	278	278	556		294	6	0	251	58	-1	+0	-1	-7	+0	-0.8
2013	21	AAA	Toledo Mud Hens	—	595	533	147	37	1	18	54	100	3	4	1	276	346	450	796	174	307	17	9	351	93	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	22	MLB	Detroit Tigers	—	579	533	138	31	4	11	36	140	3	2	2	259	309	394	703	135	326	24	6	310	97	-2	-0	-9	+2	+13	0.4
2015	23	MLB	Detroit Tigers	—	595	549	140	33	6	15	39	152	1	0	3	255	306	419	725	164	322	26	7	318	104	+3	-1	-3	+2	+13	1.4
2016	24	MLB	Detroit Tigers	—	447	411	117	25	4	18	28	111	3	1	1	285	335	496	831	212	345	25	6	360	134	+18	-0	-1	+2	+10	2.9
2017	25	MLB	Detroit Tigers	—	665	614	167	36	10	26	41	142	5	4	5	272	323	490	813	218	313	21	6	353	130	+24	-1	-10	+2	+14	3.0
2018	26	MLB	Detroit Tigers	—	678	620	185	46	5	23	49	151	6	2	1	298	356	500	856	202	361	22	7	375	141	+33	+0	-23	-7	+15	1.8
2019	27	MLB	Chicago Cubs	—	664	615	178	58	3	27	41	143	5	2	2	289	339	525	864	236	337	22	6	375	139	+31	-0	-12	-7	+14	2.6
2020	28	MLB	Cincinnati Reds	—	242	218	49	11	2	14	19	69	4	0	2	225	299	486	785	261	257	29	8	341	108	+2	-1	-5	-3	+5	-0.1
2021	29	MLB	Cincinnati Reds	—	585	531	164	38	1	34	41	121	7	3	1	309	366	576	942	267	340	21	7	406	150	+35	+0	-10	-6	+13	3.2
2022	30	MLB	Philadelphia Phillies	—	558	524	138	27	0	13	29	130	3	7	1	263	306	389	695	126	326	23	5	310	94	-4	+1	-12	-6	+12	-0.9
2023	31	MLB	Philadelphia Phillies	—	671	626	170	37	2	29	36	185	3	11	2	272	314	476	790	204	337	28	5	344	115	+12	+1	-9	-7	+15	1.2
2024	32	MLB	Philadelphia Phillies	—	659	606	154	30	4	23	41	139	10	6	2	254	312	431	743	177	294	21	6	329	104	+3	+0	-13	-7	+14	-0.2
2025	33	MLB	Philadelphia Phillies	—	589	547	137	27	2	17	32	133	4	4	0	250	297	400	697	150	298	23	5	307	92	-6	+1	-13	-6	+13	-1.2
2026	34	MLB	San Diego Padres	—	122	115	22	5	0	4	5	34	0	2	0	191	225	339	564	148	228	28	4	246	51	-7	+0	-0	-1	+3	-0.6
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	7072	6527	1764	404	43	254	437	1651	54	44	22	270	321	462	783	192	323	23	6	343	118	+152	+0	-121	-49	+153	13.8
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2010	18	ROK MLE	GCL Tigers	—	29	25	6	1	0	0	3	7	0	0	1	240	321	280	601	40	325	24	10	289	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	19	A MLE	West Michigan Whitecaps	—	562	523	131	29	2	6	29	182	3	3	2	250	294	348	642	98	359	32	5	281	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	20	AA MLE	Erie SeaWolves	—	341	326	77	12	1	4	10	98	2	5	4	236	263	316	579	80	316	29	3	255	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	20	A+ MLE	Lakeland Flying Tigers	—	243	220	77	17	2	2	17	60	3	3	2	350	404	473	877	123	451	25	7	381	144	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	21	MLB MLE	Detroit Tigers	—	18	18	5	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	278	278	278	556		294	6	0	255	58	-1	+0	-1	-7	+0	-0.8
2013	21	AAA MLE	Toledo Mud Hens	—	595	551	137	32	1	18	36	118	3	4	1	249	298	408	707	160	279	20	6	306	93	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	22	MLB MLE	Detroit Tigers	—	579	536	140	32	4	11	33	140	3	2	2	261	308	397	705	136	326	24	6	312	97	-2	-0	-9	+2	+13	0.4
2015	23	MLB MLE	Detroit Tigers	—	595	550	143	34	6	16	38	152	1	0	3	260	309	431	740	171	322	26	6	322	104	+3	-1	-3	+2	+13	1.4
2016	24	MLB MLE	Detroit Tigers	—	447	412	120	26	4	19	27	111	3	1	1	291	339	512	852	221	345	25	6	366	134	+18	-0	-1	+2	+10	2.9
2017	25	MLB MLE	Detroit Tigers	—	665	614	170	37	10	27	41	142	5	4	5	277	327	502	829	225	313	21	6	360	130	+24	-1	-10	+2	+14	3.0
2018	26	MLB MLE	Detroit Tigers	—	678	625	188	47	5	24	44	151	6	2	1	301	353	507	860	206	361	22	6	377	141	+33	+0	-23	-7	+15	1.8
2019	27	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	—	664	616	177	56	3	28	40	143	5	2	2	287	336	524	860	237	337	22	6	373	139	+31	-0	-12	-7	+14	2.6
2020	28	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	—	242	219	48	11	2	13	18	69	4	0	2	219	290	466	756	247	257	29	7	328	108	+2	-1	-5	-3	+5	-0.1
2021	29	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	—	585	536	162	39	1	31	36	121	7	3	1	302	354	552	906	250	340	21	6	390	150	+35	+0	-10	-6	+13	3.2
2022	30	MLB MLE	Philadelphia Phillies	—	558	524	138	28	0	12	29	130	3	7	1	263	306	385	691	122	326	23	5	307	94	-4	+1	-12	-6	+12	-0.9
2023	31	MLB MLE	Philadelphia Phillies	—	671	626	168	38	2	27	36	185	3	11	2	268	311	465	776	196	337	28	5	339	115	+12	+1	-9	-7	+15	1.2
2024	32	MLB MLE	Philadelphia Phillies	—	659	608	153	31	4	21	39	139	10	6	2	252	307	419	727	168	294	21	6	322	104	+3	+0	-13	-7	+14	-0.2
2025	33	MLB MLE	Philadelphia Phillies	—	589	547	137	28	2	16	32	133	4	4	0	250	297	397	693	146	298	23	5	304	92	-6	+1	-13	-6	+13	-1.2
2026	34	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	—	122	116	22	5	0	4	4	34	0	2	0	190	217	336	553	147	228	28	3	243	51	-7	+0	-0	-1	+3	-0.6
2010	18	ROK MLE	GCL Tigers	—	29	25	6	1	0	0	3	7	0	0	1	240	321	280	601	40	316	24	10	289	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	18	ROK RAW	GCL Tigers	—	29	24	8	2	0	0	4	5	0	0	1	333	429	417	845	83	400	17	14	372	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	19	A MLE	West Michigan Whitecaps	—	562	523	131	29	2	6	29	182	3	3	2	250	294	348	642	98	367	32	5	281	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	19	A RAW	West Michigan Whitecaps	—	562	507	158	36	3	7	45	130	3	3	2	312	371	436	807	124	402	23	8	357	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	20	AA MLE	3 teams	—	694	651	183	34	4	8	31	187	5	10	6	281	319	382	701	101	378	27	4	307	94	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	20	AA RAW	3 teams	—	694	636	196	38	4	11	46	149	5	10	6	308	360	432	792	124	383	21	7	351	94	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	21	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	613	569	142	32	1	18	36	119	3	4	1	250	298	404	702	155	284	19	6	304	92	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	21	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	613	551	152	37	1	18	54	101	3	4	1	276	344	445	788	169	307	16	9	348	92	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	22	MLB MLE	Detroit Tigers	—	579	536	140	32	4	11	33	140	3	2	2	261	308	397	705	136	329	24	6	312	97	-2	-0	-9	+2	+13	0.4
2014	22	MLB RAW	Detroit Tigers	—	579	533	138	31	4	11	36	140	3	2	2	259	309	394	703	135	326	24	6	310	97	-2	-0	-9	+2	+13	0.4
2015	23	MLB MLE	Detroit Tigers	—	595	550	143	34	6	16	38	152	1	0	3	260	309	431	740	171	327	26	6	322	104	+3	-1	-3	+2	+13	1.4
2015	23	MLB RAW	Detroit Tigers	—	595	549	140	33	6	15	39	152	1	0	3	255	306	419	725	164	322	26	7	318	104	+3	-1	-3	+2	+13	1.4
2016	24	MLB MLE	Detroit Tigers	—	447	412	120	26	4	19	27	111	3	1	1	291	339	512	852	221	352	25	6	366	134	+18	-0	-1	+2	+10	2.9
2016	24	MLB RAW	Detroit Tigers	—	447	411	117	25	4	18	28	111	3	1	1	285	335	496	831	212	345	25	6	360	134	+18	-0	-1	+2	+10	2.9
2017	25	MLB MLE	Detroit Tigers	—	665	614	170	37	10	27	41	142	5	4	5	277	327	502	829	225	318	21	6	360	130	+24	-1	-10	+2	+14	3.0
2017	25	MLB RAW	Detroit Tigers	—	665	614	167	36	10	26	41	142	5	4	5	272	323	490	813	218	313	21	6	353	130	+24	-1	-10	+2	+14	3.0
2018	26	MLB MLE	Detroit Tigers	—	678	625	188	47	5	24	44	151	6	2	1	301	353	507	860	206	362	22	6	377	141	+33	+0	-23	-7	+15	1.8
2018	26	MLB RAW	Detroit Tigers	—	678	620	185	46	5	23	49	151	6	2	1	298	356	500	856	202	361	22	7	375	141	+33	+0	-23	-7	+15	1.8
2019	27	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	—	664	616	177	56	3	28	40	143	5	2	2	287	336	524	860	237	333	22	6	373	139	+31	-0	-12	-7	+14	2.6
2019	27	MLB RAW	Chicago Cubs	—	664	615	178	58	3	27	41	143	5	2	2	289	339	525	864	236	337	22	6	375	139	+31	-0	-12	-7	+14	2.6
2020	28	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	—	242	219	48	11	2	13	18	69	4	0	2	219	290	466	756	247	254	29	7	328	108	+2	-1	-5	-3	+5	-0.1
2020	28	MLB RAW	Cincinnati Reds	—	242	218	49	11	2	14	19	69	4	0	2	225	299	486	785	261	257	29	8	341	108	+2	-1	-5	-3	+5	-0.1
2021	29	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	—	585	536	162	39	1	31	36	121	7	3	1	302	354	552	906	250	336	21	6	390	150	+35	+0	-10	-6	+13	3.2
2021	29	MLB RAW	Cincinnati Reds	—	585	531	164	38	1	34	41	121	7	3	1	309	366	576	942	267	340	21	7	406	150	+35	+0	-10	-6	+13	3.2
2022	30	MLB MLE	Philadelphia Phillies	—	558	524	138	28	0	12	29	130	3	7	1	263	306	385	691	122	328	23	5	307	94	-4	+1	-12	-6	+12	-0.9
2022	30	MLB RAW	Philadelphia Phillies	—	558	524	138	27	0	13	29	130	3	7	1	263	306	389	695	126	326	23	5	310	94	-4	+1	-12	-6	+12	-0.9
2023	31	MLB MLE	Philadelphia Phillies	—	671	626	168	38	2	27	36	185	3	11	2	268	311	465	776	196	336	28	5	339	115	+12	+1	-9	-7	+15	1.2
2023	31	MLB RAW	Philadelphia Phillies	—	671	626	170	37	2	29	36	185	3	11	2	272	314	476	790	204	337	28	5	344	115	+12	+1	-9	-7	+15	1.2
2024	32	MLB MLE	Philadelphia Phillies	—	659	608	153	31	4	21	39	139	10	6	2	252	307	419	727	168	293	21	6	322	104	+3	+0	-13	-7	+14	-0.2
2024	32	MLB RAW	Philadelphia Phillies	—	659	606	154	30	4	23	41	139	10	6	2	254	312	431	743	177	294	21	6	329	104	+3	+0	-13	-7	+14	-0.2
2025	33	MLB MLE	Philadelphia Phillies	—	589	547	137	28	2	16	32	133	4	4	0	250	297	397	693	146	300	23	5	304	92	-6	+1	-13	-6	+13	-1.2
2025	33	MLB RAW	Philadelphia Phillies	—	589	547	137	27	2	17	32	133	4	4	0	250	297	400	697	150	298	23	5	307	92	-6	+1	-13	-6	+13	-1.2
2026	34	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	—	122	116	22	5	0	4	4	34	0	2	0	190	217	336	553	147	225	28	3	243	51	-7	+0	-0	-1	+3	-0.6
2026	34	MLB RAW	San Diego Padres	—	122	115	22	5	0	4	5	34	0	2	0	191	225	339	564	148	228	28	4	246	51	-7	+0	-0	-1	+3	-0.6
2010	18	ROK MLE	GCL Tigers	—	29	26	6	1	0	0	3	7	0	0	1	231	321	269	591	38	325	24	10	289	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	19	A MLE	West Michigan Whitecaps	—	562	525	131	29	2	6	29	182	3	3	2	250	294	347	640	97	359	32	5	281	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	20	AA MLE	3 teams	—	694	653	183	34	4	8	31	187	5	10	6	280	319	381	700	101	372	27	4	307	94	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	21	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	613	569	142	32	1	18	36	119	3	4	1	250	298	404	702	155	279	19	6	304	92	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	22	MLB MLE	Detroit Tigers	—	579	538	140	32	4	11	33	140	3	2	2	260	308	396	704	136	326	24	6	312	97	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	23	MLB MLE	Detroit Tigers	—	595	551	143	34	6	16	38	152	1	0	3	260	309	430	739	171	322	26	6	322	104	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	24	MLB MLE	Detroit Tigers	—	447	414	120	26	4	19	27	111	3	1	1	290	339	510	849	220	345	25	6	366	134	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	25	MLB MLE	Detroit Tigers	—	665	614	170	37	10	27	41	142	5	4	5	277	327	502	829	225	313	21	6	360	130	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	26	MLB MLE	Detroit Tigers	—	678	623	188	47	5	24	44	151	6	2	1	302	353	509	861	207	361	22	6	377	141	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	27	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	—	664	614	177	56	3	28	40	143	5	2	2	288	336	526	862	238	337	22	6	373	139	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	28	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	—	242	218	48	11	2	13	18	69	4	0	2	220	290	468	758	248	257	29	7	328	108	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	29	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	—	585	537	162	39	1	31	36	121	7	3	1	302	354	551	905	250	340	21	6	390	150	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	30	MLB MLE	Philadelphia Phillies	—	558	521	138	28	0	12	29	130	3	7	1	265	306	388	693	123	326	23	5	307	94	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	31	MLB MLE	Philadelphia Phillies	—	671	627	168	38	2	27	36	185	3	11	2	268	311	464	775	196	337	28	5	339	115	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	32	MLB MLE	Philadelphia Phillies	—	659	605	153	31	4	21	39	139	10	6	2	253	307	421	729	169	294	21	6	322	104	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	33	MLB MLE	Philadelphia Phillies	—	589	548	137	28	2	16	32	133	4	4	0	250	297	396	693	146	298	23	5	304	92	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	34	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	—	122	117	22	5	0	4	4	34	0	2	0	188	217	333	550	145	228	28	3	243	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	32	MLB MLE	Philadelphia Phillies	—	659	605	153	31	4	21	39	139	10	6	2	253	307	421	729	169	294	21	6	322	104	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	33	MLB MLE	Philadelphia Phillies	—	589	548	137	28	2	16	32	133	4	4	0	250	297	396	693	146	298	23	5	304	92	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	34	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	—	122	117	22	5	0	4	4	34	0	2	0	188	217	333	550	145	228	28	3	243	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	35	MLB MLE	SD	100%	338	314	82	16	2	11	18	79	3	4	1	259	305	424	728	165	310	23	5	320	103	+1	+0	-3	-4	+7	0.1
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	35	MLB CTX	SD	100%	227	211	53	10	1	7	12	53	2	3	1	255	301	419	720	164	303	23	5	317	103	+1	+0	-2	-2	+5	0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	36	MLB MLE	SD	100%	165	155	38	7	1	5	8	40	1	1	0	246	290	396	686	150	298	24	5	303	91	-2	+0	-8	-2	+4	-0.8
2028	36	MLB CTX	SD	100%	165	155	38	7	1	5	8	40	1	1	0	242	287	391	678	149	293	24	5	299	91	-2	+0	-8	-2	+4	-0.8
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	7237	6682	1802	411	44	259	445	1691	55	45	22	270	321	461	781	191	322	23	6	342	110	+150	+0	-128	-51	+157	13.0
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	600	162	37	4	23	40	152	5	4	2	270	321	460	781	190	323	23	6	342	110	+13	+0	-12	-5	+14	1.2
Career	—	MLE		—	9344	8663	2320	526	52	293	536	2238	68	65	33	268	316	442	758	174	327	24	6	331	110	+151	+0	-130	-54	+162	13.2
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	603	162	37	4	20	37	156	5	5	2	269	316	443	759	174	329	24	6	331	110	+13	+0	-11	-5	+14	1.1

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2013 AAAToledo Mud Hens · 595 PAwOBA .343 → .306 (−37)K% 16.8% → 19.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	16.81%	÷1.011	×1.200	—	—	19.95%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	8.74%	÷1.041	×0.690	—	×1.050	6.08%
HBP% /PA	0.50%	—	×0.940	—	×1.050	0.50%
Singles /BIP	21.02%	÷1.016	×0.930	×0.971	×1.050	19.61%
Doubles /BIP	8.55%	÷0.994	×0.830	×0.971	×1.050	7.27%
Triples /BIP	0.23%	÷1.150	×0.970	×0.971	×1.050	0.20%
Home runs /BIP	4.16%	÷0.883	×0.840	—	×1.050	4.15%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 77, 1B 103, 2B 99, 3B 130, K 102, BB 108 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (6.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.971.

Result: wOBA .343 → .306; ISO .174 → .165; BABIP .307 → .279. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2012 AAErie SeaWolves · 341 PAwOBA .294 → .255 (−40)K% 22.3% → 28.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	22.29%	÷0.948	×1.220	—	—	28.69%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	3.81%	÷1.013	×0.700	—	×1.050	2.77%
HBP% /PA	0.59%	—	×0.850	—	×1.050	0.52%
Singles /BIP	25.20%	÷1.003	×0.970	×1.004	×1.050	25.71%
Doubles /BIP	6.10%	÷1.042	×0.860	×1.004	×1.050	5.31%
Triples /BIP	0.41%	÷0.900	×0.950	×1.004	×1.050	0.45%
Home runs /BIP	2.85%	÷1.260	×0.780	—	×1.050	1.85%

Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 152, 1B 101, 2B 108, 3B 80, K 90, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 24.8 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.004.

Result: wOBA .294 → .255; ISO .118 → .085; BABIP .322 → .316. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2012 A+Lakeland Flying Tigers · 243 PAwOBA .439 → .381 (−57)K% 17.3% → 24.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	17.28%	÷1.004	×1.420	—	—	24.45%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	8.64%	÷0.982	×0.750	—	×1.042	6.88%
HBP% /PA	1.23%	—	×0.930	—	×1.042	1.20%
Singles /BIP	36.99%	÷1.040	×0.920	×0.996	×1.042	33.97%
Doubles /BIP	9.83%	÷0.970	×0.960	×0.996	×1.042	10.09%
Triples /BIP	1.73%	÷1.150	×0.810	×0.996	×1.042	1.27%
Home runs /BIP	1.73%	÷1.122	×0.880	—	×1.042	1.42%

Factors used: league row FSL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 124, 1B 108, 2B 94, 3B 130, K 101, BB 96 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.996.

Result: wOBA .439 → .381; ISO .149 → .129; BABIP .486 → .451. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2011 AWest Michigan Whitecaps · 562 PAwOBA .350 → .281 (−69)K% 23.1% → 32.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	23.13%	÷0.970	×1.360	—	—	32.43%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	7.65%	÷1.062	×0.690	—	×1.045	5.19%
HBP% /PA	0.53%	—	×0.780	—	×1.045	0.44%
Singles /BIP	29.71%	÷1.026	×0.920	×0.971	×1.045	27.03%
Doubles /BIP	9.55%	÷0.972	×0.830	×0.971	×1.045	8.27%
Triples /BIP	0.80%	÷1.150	×0.910	×0.971	×1.045	0.64%
Home runs /BIP	1.86%	÷0.919	×0.800	—	×1.045	1.69%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 84, 1B 105, 2B 94, 3B 130, K 94, BB 112 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 22.0 → +4.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.971.

Result: wOBA .350 → .281; ISO .124 → .100; BABIP .402 → .359. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2010 ROKGCL Tigers · 29 PAwOBA .376 → .289 (−87)K% 17.2% → 24.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	17.24%	÷1.000	×1.440	—	—	24.83%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	13.79%	÷1.000	×0.620	—	×1.022	8.74%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.720	—	×1.022	0.00%
Singles /BIP	31.58%	÷1.000	×0.820	—	×1.022	26.48%
Doubles /BIP	10.53%	÷1.000	×0.720	—	×1.022	7.75%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.720	—	×1.022	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.780	—	×1.022	0.00%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 19.5 → +2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .376 → .289; ISO .083 → .062; BABIP .400 → .325. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Bobby Murcer'65-'83 * career totals — 15 seasons, 7,718 PA	11.6	7,718	252	127	276*	356*	485*	-39	-83	34.5	31.7
/162	664	22	11	-3.3	-7.1	3.0	pk7: 29
#2Justin Uptonlast yr '22 AS×4SS×2 career totals — 16 seasons, 7,649 PA	11.5	7,649	325	151	261	342	469	-82	-91	29.7	27.0
/162	664	28	13	-7.1	-7.9	2.6	pk7: 24
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 15 projected seasons	11.2	7,446	266	47	271	318	462	-80	-157	26.9	25.2
/162	664	24	4	-7.1	-14.0	2.4	pk7: 24
#3Jason Baylast yr '13 career totals — 11 seasons, 5,258 PA	7.9	5,258	222	95	266	360	481	-56	-118	20.8	21.9
/162	664	28	12	-7.1	-14.9	2.6	pk7: 23
#4Steve Garvey'69-'87 * career totals — 18 seasons, 9,466 PA	14.3	9,466	272	83	289*	326*	483*	-151	-75	22.6	20.6
/162	664	19	6	-10.6	-5.3	1.6	pk7: 19
#5Jeff Burroughs'70-'85 * career totals — 15 seasons, 6,449 PA	9.7	6,449	240	16	258*	356*	478*	-85	-77	20.8	20.5
/162	664	25	2	-8.8	-7.9	2.1	pk7: 20
#6Michael Cuddyerlast yr '15 career totals — 14 seasons, 6,082 PA	9.2	6,082	197	74	278	344	461	-57	-116	18.8	18.1
/162	664	22	8	-6.2	-12.6	2.1	pk7: 17

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Nick Castellanos (OGILVIE)	35	—	—	—	—	256/302/420	164	310	7	3	23%	5%	103	+0.6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Nick Hundley 2019 · MLB	35	48→45	52→55	46→40	42	245/290/418	172	303	20	4	26%	6%	97	+1.1	226/277/380	154	301	18	7	30%	6%	84	+0.1	161/196/283	123	228	14	0	36%	3%	31	-0.8
✕Miguel Olivo 2013 · MLB	35	43→50	53→60	40→50	37	231/260/394	163	280	22	8	27%	4%	80	-0.1	234/272/390	156	303	19	8	29%	4%	84	+0.1	216/254/339	124	304	13	8	32%	4%	62	-0.7
✕José Hernández 2004 · MLB	35	50→60	51→55	41→45	43	249/307/405	157	338	19	4	31%	8%	101	+1.4	249/307/402	153	318	19	5	27%	8%	99	+1.3	254/309/406	152	311	20	4	24%	7%	102	+0.5
✕Adam Rosales 2018 · MLB	35	44→50	51→55	45	40	225/281/387	162	304	19	7	32%	6%	86	+0.3	198/248/332	134	258	16	5	29%	5%	61	-1.5	175/223/296	120	224	15	3	29%	5%	42	-1.8
✕Yadiel Hernandez 2022 · MLB	34	49→54	53→55	46→45	46	254/308/422	168	300	23	7	24%	7%	105	+1.7	249/297/389	140	311	16	7	24%	6%	93	+0.8	266/311/405	139	325	16	4	23%	6%	103	+0.8
✕Eric Karros 2004 · MLB	36	53→55	49→55	44→40	51	267/322/414	147	288	17	4	14%	7%	108	+1.9	246/302/393	147	270	16	7	15%	7%	96	+1.0	191/234/305	114	207	11	5	14%	5%	50	-0.4
●John Lindsey 2012 · AAA	35	44→51	50→60	44→30	39	227/287/382	155	287	17	3	27%	5%	88	+0.5	231/300/429	198	285	26	2	28%	6%	105	+1.7	221/296/425	204	267	29	0	29%	6%	100	+1.0
✕Mario Valenzuela 2013 · AAA	36	52→57	52→55	40	45	264/314/427	163	299	21	4	20%	6%	108	+1.9	238/285/352	114	308	13	5	26%	6%	80	-0.2	225/269/314	89	292	11	2	26%	5%	62	-0.5
✕Fernando Tatis 2009 · MLB	34	47→52	52→55	47→45	48	241/305/410	169	278	20	7	21%	8%	101	+1.4	250/310/410	160	287	17	7	19%	7%	103	+1.5	273/327/425	151	304	13	6	14%	5%	113	+1.4
✕Justin Ruggiano 2017 · MLB	35	44→54	50→60	45→55	43	223/291/377	154	307	18	11	32%	8%	88	+0.5	223/274/370	147	289	17	9	28%	6%	80	-0.1	215/249/357	142	264	18	5	26%	3%	65	-0.5
✕John Buck 2014 · MLB	34	42→52	51→60	43→30	48	221/293/376	155	261	21	3	24%	8%	89	+0.5	232/296/358	126	288	15	5	24%	7%	85	+0.2	229/290/300	70	298	6	0	24%	7%	68	-0.4
✕Gerald Williams 2001 · MLB	34	52→53	50	42→55	46	265/306/418	153	286	18	11	15%	5%	103	+1.5	226/280/352	126	257	13	18	17%	6%	78	-0.3	203/251/338	136	231	12	17	18%	5%	63	-0.5
✕Aaron Boone 2008 · MLB	35	51→57	46→60	46→55	49	253/323/384	131	286	14	8	17%	7%	102	+1.5	244/311/384	140	288	14	6	20%	8%	97	+1.1	237/294/377	140	281	14	0	20%	7%	90	+0.2
✕Adonis García 2019 · MLB	34	51→54	48→50	49→50	44	254/296/393	138	277	16	9	16%	4%	93	+0.8	214/271/329	115	258	13	14	22%	6%	70	-0.9	181/235/262	81	221	9	16	22%	4%	39	-1.3
✕Greg Dobbs 2013 · MLB	35	54→58	44→55	45→50	43	267/299/386	119	308	12	5	18%	4%	92	+0.7	236/281/334	98	280	9	5	19%	5%	74	-0.6	212/260/281	69	255	5	1	19%	5%	53	-0.7
✕Jesus Valdez 2019 · AAA	34	52→61	51→55	44→45	46	265/306/425	160	287	19	6	16%	5%	105	+1.7	245/284/392	147	275	18	6	18%	5%	89	+0.5	244/277/386	142	267	19	1	17%	4%	81	-0.0
✕Jose Guillen 2010 · MLB	34	51→57	51→60	46→45	45	261/313/419	158	287	19	4	17%	5%	106	+1.8	256/314/418	162	290	20	4	19%	6%	106	+1.8	259/317/424	165	295	21	1	20%	5%	109	+1.9
●Ruben Mateo 2013 · AAA	35	47→50	57→60	39→45	41	251/292/445	194	270	26	5	19%	4%	105	+1.7	244/304/428	184	272	24	3	20%	5%	105	+1.7	233/299/406	173	260	24	1	21%	5%	97	+0.7
✕Elias Díaz 2024 · MLB	33	48→58	48→50	44→45	47	242/296/382	140	286	16	2	21%	7%	91	+0.6	241/291/373	132	295	15	2	23%	6%	87	+0.4	232/281/361	129	284	15	0	23%	5%	81	-0.0
✕Benji Gil 2007 · AAA	34	52→56	48→50	45→50	40	260/300/394	134	322	17	14	25%	5%	95	+0.9	257/299/377	120	321	10	13	22%	5%	90	+0.6	264/308/382	118	329	7	11	21%	5%	92	+0.5

Nick Castellanos

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps