Matt Chapman — OGILVIE

Matt Chapman3B San Francisco Giants

Age 33 R/R 6'1" / 220 lbs MLB BB -3% Svc 9.000 · Ctrl thru 2030 peak 3.0 · 2026

wRC+†vL 106117vR 116

AVG/OBP/SLG.241 / .335 / .445

PA494

HR20

SB6

K%24

BB%11

xwOBA.285

Barrel%3.9%

MLB%100%

Scouting · now → future

HIT

50→50

PWR

55→55

SPD

55→55

EYE

59↗60

trajectory · 10 yrs

2.8peak

2026

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status FA

MLB Debut 2017

Service 9.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2030

First FA Year 2031

NTCDEF 10%

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	Ext / FA-deal	$25M	+3.0	$24M	-$1M
2027	Ext / FA-deal	$25M	+2.3	$19M	-$6M
2028	Ext / FA-deal	$25M	+1.6	$14M	-$12M
2029	Ext / FA-deal	$25M	+0.9	$4M	-$21M
2030	Ext / FA-deal	$25M	+0.3	$1M	-$24M
Totals		$126M		$62M	-$64M

Underwater contract
Projected production over the remaining contract is worth -$64M less than the salary owed. Most often this reflects an aging-curve fade that was visible at signing — the team paid a premium for the early years.

Career Projections (MLE)

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2014	21	A	2 teams	217	206	40	6	3	3	6	62	5	2	1	.194	.235	.296	.531	.102	.262	29	3	.230	34	-16	+0	+0	+1	+6	-0.9
2015	22	A+	Stockton Ports	352	315	55	15	2	12	28	98	5	4	1	.175	.253	.349	.602	.175	.206	28	8	.263	59	-16	+0	+0	+1	+10	-0.5
2016	23	AA	2 teams	589	541	88	17	2	29	41	249	3	7	4	.163	.226	.362	.588	.200	.221	42	7	.254	53	-32	-0	+0	+2	+17	-1.3
2017	24	MLB	2 teams	530	473	102	26	4	26	49	173	3	5	7	.216	.293	.452	.746	.237	.272	33	9	.320	103	+2	-2	+7	+2	+15	2.4
2018	25	MLB	Oakland Athletics	616	547	153	37	7	27	58	146	9	1	2	.280	.358	.521	.879	.241	.335	24	9	.380	149	+34	-1	+7	+2	+17	6.1
2019	26	MLB	Oakland Athletics	670	583	150	34	3	38	73	147	11	1	1	.257	.351	.521	.872	.264	.279	22	11	.373	144	+33	-0	+11	+2	+19	6.7
2020	27	MLB	Oakland Athletics	152	142	33	9	2	10	8	54	1	0	0	.232	.278	.535	.813	.303	.291	36	5	.352	127	+5	+0	+1	+1	+4	1.1
2021	28	MLB	Oakland Athletics	622	529	114	15	3	29	80	202	4	3	2	.216	.323	.420	.743	.204	.277	32	13	.323	105	+4	-0	+14	+2	+18	3.9
2022	29	MLB	Toronto Blue Jays	621	538	125	29	1	25	68	170	10	2	2	.232	.330	.429	.759	.197	.287	27	11	.331	111	+8	-0	+3	+2	+18	3.1
2023	30	MLB	Toronto Blue Jays	581	509	127	40	2	18	62	165	8	4	2	.250	.340	.442	.782	.193	.332	28	11	.342	120	+13	+0	+4	+2	+16	3.6
2024	31	MLB	San Francisco Giants	647	575	143	37	2	30	64	158	6	15	2	.249	.330	.477	.807	.228	.290	24	10	.349	126	+19	+2	+10	+2	+18	5.3
2025	32	MLB	San Francisco Giants	535	454	106	23	2	21	71	126	6	9	4	.233	.345	.432	.776	.198	.273	24	13	.344	122	+13	+0	+5	+2	+15	3.6
▸ 2026 Season (actual · ROS · total)
2026	33	MLB	San Francisco Giants	105	98	28	4	1	1	7	20	0	0	1	.286	.333	.378	.711	.092	.351	19	7	.317	101	+0	-0	+1	+0	+3	0.4
ROS	33	MLB	SF	389	343	87	19	2	13	40	90	3	6	2	.254	.337	.434	.771	.181	.305	23	10	.344	121	+9	+0	+4	+1	+11	2.7
TOT	33	MLB	SF	494	441	115	23	3	14	47	110	3	6	3	.261	.336	.422	.758	.161	.317	22	10	.338	117	+9	+0	+4	+2	+14	3.0
▸ 2027+ Projections — Projections at projected PA · Park-neutral MLB equivalent · Marcel + aging curve
2027	34	MLB	SF	447	394	98	21	2	15	46	89	4	5	2	.249	.333	.426	.760	.178	.284	20	10	.337	116	+8	+0	-1	+2	+13	2.2
2028	35	MLB	SF	392	346	84	18	2	12	40	82	3	4	1	.243	.326	.410	.737	.168	.282	21	10	.329	110	+4	+0	-2	+1	+11	1.6
2029	36	MLB	SF	332	293	70	15	2	10	33	73	3	3	1	.239	.322	.406	.728	.167	.278	22	10	.319	102	+1	+0	-3	+1	+9	0.9
2030	37	MLB	SF	268	238	53	11	1	7	26	62	2	2	0	.223	.305	.366	.670	.143	.274	23	10	.308	94	-2	+0	-4	+1	+8	0.3
2031	38	MLB	SF	199	177	39	8	1	5	19	47	1	1	0	.220	.299	.362	.661	.141	.269	24	10	.296	85	-3	+0	-6	+1	+6	-0.3
▸ Career Totals (MLE all levels + projections)
Career	—			8159	7203	1667	380	43	330	812	2193	87	74	34	.231	.317	.434	.750	.202	.283	27	10	.328	109	+84	+1	+51	+29	+231	40.4
/ 162G	—			650	574	132	30	3	26	65	175	7	6	3	.230	.316	.429	.744	.199	.281	27	10	.328	109	+7	+0	+4	+2	+18	3.2

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2014	21	A	Beloit Snappers	202	190	45	8	3	5	7	46	5	2	1	.237	.282	.389	.672	.153	.288	23	3	.299	87	-3	+0	—	—	+6	0.3
2014	21	ROK	AZL Athletics	15	14	6	1	1	0	1	1	0	0	0	.429	.467	.643	1.110	.214	.462	7	7	.481	226	+2	+0	—	—	+0	0.3
2015	22	A+	Stockton Ports	352	304	76	21	3	23	39	79	5	4	1	.250	.345	.566	.911	.316	.257	22	11	.389	156	+22	+0	—	—	+10	3.3
2016	23	AAA	Nashville Sounds	85	76	15	1	1	7	9	26	0	0	0	.197	.282	.513	.796	.316	.186	31	11	.343	121	+2	+0	—	—	+2	0.4
2016	23	AA	Midland RockHounds	504	438	107	26	4	29	59	147	3	7	4	.244	.338	.521	.859	.276	.293	29	12	.371	142	+24	-0	—	—	+14	3.9
2017	24	MLB	Oakland Athletics	326	290	68	23	2	14	32	92	2	0	3	.234	.315	.472	.787	.238	.290	28	10	.343	121	+8	-1	+7	+2	+9	2.5
2017	24	AAA	Nashville Sounds	204	175	45	6	2	16	25	63	1	5	4	.257	.353	.589	.942	.331	.293	31	12	.399	164	+15	-1	—	—	+6	2.0
2018	25	MLB	Oakland Athletics	616	547	152	42	6	24	58	146	9	1	2	.278	.357	.508	.865	.230	.338	24	9	.378	148	+33	-1	+7	+2	+17	6.0
2019	26	MLB	Oakland Athletics	670	583	145	36	3	36	73	147	11	1	1	.249	.343	.506	.849	.257	.270	22	11	.371	142	+32	-0	+11	+2	+19	6.6
2020	27	MLB	Oakland Athletics	152	142	33	9	2	10	8	54	1	0	0	.232	.278	.535	.813	.303	.291	36	5	.347	124	+4	+0	+1	+1	+4	1.1
2021	28	MLB	Oakland Athletics	622	529	111	15	3	27	80	202	4	3	2	.210	.318	.403	.721	.193	.272	32	13	.320	103	+2	-0	+14	+2	+18	3.7
2022	29	MLB	Toronto Blue Jays	621	538	123	27	1	27	68	170	10	2	2	.229	.326	.433	.759	.204	.277	27	11	.336	115	+11	-0	+3	+2	+18	3.4
2023	30	MLB	Toronto Blue Jays	581	509	122	39	2	17	62	165	8	4	2	.240	.332	.424	.756	.185	.319	28	11	.337	116	+10	+0	+4	+2	+16	3.4
2024	31	MLB	San Francisco Giants	647	575	142	39	2	27	64	158	6	15	2	.247	.329	.463	.791	.216	.293	24	10	.349	125	+18	+2	+10	+2	+18	5.2
2025	32	MLB	San Francisco Giants	535	454	105	23	2	21	71	126	6	9	4	.231	.343	.430	.772	.198	.270	24	13	.344	121	+13	+0	+5	+2	+15	3.5
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			4770	4167	1001	253	23	203	516	1260	57	35	18	.240	.332	.458	.790	.218	.292	26	11	.348	124	+131	-0	+63	+18	+135	35.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Matt Chapman (OGILVIE)	33	50	55	55	60	.252/.336/.436	.183	.286	17	7	19%	10%	121	+2.7	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Zack Cozart 2019 · MLB	33	51→56	53→60	51→50	55	.259/.334/.443	.184	.281	20	4	16%	9%	121	+3.2	.220/.292/.350	.130	.249	13	6	17%	8%	81	+0.4	.121/.178/.140	.019	.144	0	0	15%	5%	-25	-1.2
●Dexter Fowler 2019 · MLB	33	48→58	52→55	51→55	59	.243/.344/.422	.179	.288	19	11	22%	12%	121	+3.2	.238/.334/.413	.175	.291	21	9	24%	12%	115	+2.7	.240/.345/.423	.183	.295	23	8	25%	12%	119	+1.7
●Mark Canha 2022 · MLB	33	50→57	54→60	52→50	60	.252/.374/.438	.187	.295	21	9	21%	13%	137	+4.3	.255/.359/.399	.144	.299	15	9	19%	10%	121	+3.2	.255/.356/.383	.128	.300	13	8	18%	10%	112	+2.2
✕Joe Dillon 2008 · MLB	32	52→53	55	52→45	53	.268/.335/.463	.195	.284	22	10	15%	8%	128	+3.6	.235/.308/.369	.134	.266	14	8	17%	8%	92	+1.2	.214/.291/.310	.096	.249	10	6	18%	8%	69	-0.2
✕Chris Young 2017 · MLB	33	47→49	53→60	46→55	50	.242/.313/.419	.177	.280	20	10	21%	8%	107	+2.2	.233/.312/.408	.175	.275	20	9	23%	9%	104	+2.0	.211/.298/.383	.172	.243	21	7	23%	10%	90	+0.4
✕Jeff Baker 2014 · MLB	33	51	54→55	49→45	46	.259/.315/.440	.181	.313	21	7	24%	7%	113	+2.6	.249/.309/.406	.157	.312	18	6	25%	8%	102	+1.8	.252/.299/.355	.102	.320	8	3	23%	6%	77	+0.1
✕José Cruz Jr. 2007 · MLB	33	48→51	53→65	47→50	62	.242/.345/.428	.186	.280	19	8	20%	14%	121	+3.2	.230/.320/.368	.138	.280	13	11	21%	12%	96	+1.5	.229/.305/.356	.128	.282	11	14	22%	10%	84	+0.4
✕Fernando Tatis 2009 · MLB	34	48→54	52→55	47→45	49	.248/.314/.415	.168	.287	19	7	21%	8%	106	+2.2	.253/.316/.417	.164	.290	17	7	19%	7%	107	+2.2	.276/.335/.428	.152	.308	13	6	14%	6%	111	+1.6
✕Rickie Weeks Jr. 2017 · MLB	34	48→58	52→55	48→55	49	.243/.327/.416	.173	.303	19	10	26%	9%	111	+2.5	.235/.322/.396	.161	.340	18	10	33%	10%	105	+2.1	.206/.313/.340	.133	.379	14	5	43%	11%	85	+0.1
✕Aaron Boone 2006 · MLB	33	49→57	51→60	51→55	49	.250/.309/.405	.156	.270	19	14	16%	7%	102	+1.8	.250/.318/.383	.133	.285	14	8	17%	7%	99	+1.7	.253/.327/.381	.128	.294	12	5	18%	8%	97	+0.7
✕Eric Hinske 2010 · MLB	32	46→55	56→60	50	56	.242/.335/.441	.199	.278	23	10	22%	11%	121	+3.2	.242/.324/.422	.180	.296	21	4	24%	10%	112	+2.6	.230/.311/.396	.166	.287	19	0	26%	10%	92	+0.5
✕Eli Marrero 2006 · MLB	32	48→49	54→55	50	49	.250/.310/.437	.187	.282	21	7	20%	8%	110	+2.4	.238/.319/.438	.200	.283	25	13	24%	10%	115	+2.7	.198/.319/.427	.229	.220	32	27	27%	13%	106	+0.4
✕Abraham Almonte 2022 · MLB	33	46→53	52→55	47→55	59	.235/.331/.416	.180	.282	18	12	23%	13%	113	+2.6	.238/.327/.421	.183	.299	24	9	27%	11%	113	+2.6	.219/.313/.404	.185	.272	27	8	29%	11%	100	+0.9
●Hunter Pence 2016 · MLB	33	54→63	55→60	52→50	49	.277/.332/.470	.193	.309	23	13	19%	8%	128	+3.6	.268/.325/.428	.160	.316	19	6	21%	8%	114	+2.7	.263/.318/.401	.139	.314	16	4	21%	7%	99	+1.3
✕Adam Jones 2019 · MLB	33	54→57	51→60	47→50	45	.276/.315/.432	.157	.302	20	5	17%	5%	111	+2.5	.265/.314/.418	.153	.302	18	5	18%	6%	107	+2.2	.261/.316/.416	.154	.300	19	2	19%	6%	103	+1.7
✕Terry Shumpert 2001 · MLB	34	50	52→50	53→55	55	.253/.333/.434	.181	.270	18	14	14%	9%	118	+3.0	.252/.318/.406	.154	.284	14	17	16%	8%	105	+2.1	.255/.315/.394	.139	.291	11	20	16%	7%	96	+0.7
✕Eduardo Escobar 2022 · MLB	33	48→56	58→60	51→50	49	.254/.311/.458	.204	.277	26	4	20%	8%	116	+2.8	.246/.301/.422	.176	.294	21	3	23%	7%	102	+1.9	.241/.293/.405	.164	.294	19	1	24%	7%	90	+0.7
✕Corey Hart 2014 · MLB	32	50→56	56→60	47→55	48	.260/.326/.456	.196	.304	24	7	23%	8%	122	+3.3	.223/.281/.375	.152	.275	18	6	25%	6%	82	+0.5	.197/.252/.330	.132	.243	17	3	26%	5%	53	-0.5
✕Scott Hairston 2013 · MLB	33	46→51	58→60	50	46	.247/.302/.457	.210	.273	26	11	21%	7%	113	+2.6	.232/.284/.439	.207	.265	27	9	24%	6%	100	+1.7	.184/.235/.422	.238	.174	39	7	25%	5%	77	+0.0
●Josh Willingham 2011 · MLB	32	51→53	57→60	49→45	60	.261/.370/.469	.208	.295	23	8	20%	13%	143	+4.7	.251/.354/.475	.224	.293	28	6	24%	12%	138	+4.4	.238/.348/.463	.225	.280	29	3	25%	12%	125	+3.2

Contract

Career Projections (MLE) Show advanced cols

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Career Path Comps

Career Projections (MLE)