Matt Chapman — OGILVIE

Matt Chapman3B San Francisco Giants

Age 33 R/R 6'1" / 220 lbs MLB HR -8%H -3% Svc 8.634 · Ctrl thru 2027 ILInjured 10-Day (D10)

2026 ROS PROJECTION352 act + 234 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†vL 105108vR 115

AVG/OBP/SLG.241 / .335 / .417

PA234

HR7

K%23

BB%11

BABIP294

ISO177

MLB%100%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control

Tools · Splits · ContractCON 46 / POW 57

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2024-2026

CONTACT46

Whiff%

867.3%

xwOBA

670.328

POWER57

Barrel%

6410.3

Avg EV

8891.7

Bat Spd

8975.4

EYE56

Chase%

9020.1%

SPEED45

Sprint

6628.1

DEFENSE70

scouting grade only

Platoon Splits2024-2026 · 1295 PA

vs LHP

vs RHP

Edge

325

970

—

wRC+

114

121

▶R

wOBA

334

343

—

ISO

165

209

▶▶R

BABIP

297

287

◀L

20.9%

24.4%

◀L

BB%

12.0%

10.4%

◀L

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status FA

MLB Debut 2017

Service 8.634 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2027

First FA Year 2027

NTCOPT

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext / FA-deal	$10M	+0.9	$4M	-$7M
2027	Ext	$20M	+1.8	$13M	-$5M
Totals		$30M		$17M	-$12M

Options · projected decision
2031	MUTUAL OPT	$20.0M / $0.0M buyout	DECLINE
2032	PLAYER OPT	$17.0M / $2.0M buyout	EXERCISE
2033	PLAYER OPT	$18.0M / $2.0M buyout	EXERCISE
2034	MUTUAL OPT	$20.0M / $2.0M buyout	DECLINE

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2014	21	A	2 teams	—	217	207	39	6	3	3	5	67	5	2	1	188	226	290	516	101	263	31	2	222	28	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	21	A	2 teams	—	217	204	51	9	4	5	8	47	5	2	1	250	295	407	702	157	303	22	4	311	96	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	22	A+	Stockton Ports	—	352	315	55	15	3	9	28	93	5	4	1	175	253	327	580	152	212	26	8	250	50	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	22	A+	Stockton Ports	—	352	304	76	21	3	23	39	79	5	4	1	250	345	566	911	316	257	22	11	389	156	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	23	AA	2 teams	—	589	543	87	16	3	29	39	259	3	7	4	160	221	361	581	201	224	44	7	253	52	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	23	AA	2 teams	—	589	514	122	27	5	36	68	173	3	7	4	237	330	519	849	282	278	29	12	367	139	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	24	MLB	2 teams	—	530	474	110	28	4	31	48	173	3	5	7	232	307	504	811	272	287	33	9	344	121	+13	-2	+7	+2	+15	3.6
2017	24	MLB	2 teams	—	530	465	113	29	4	30	57	155	3	5	7	243	330	516	846	273	291	29	11	365	137	+22	-2	+7	+2	+15	4.6
2018	25	MLB	Oakland Athletics	—	616	547	156	44	6	25	58	146	9	1	2	285	363	525	888	239	347	24	9	382	151	+35	-1	+7	+2	+17	6.3
2018	25	MLB	Oakland Athletics	—	616	547	152	42	6	24	58	146	9	1	2	278	357	508	865	230	338	24	9	378	148	+33	-1	+7	+2	+17	6.0
2019	26	MLB	Oakland Athletics	—	670	583	149	37	3	38	73	147	11	1	1	256	349	525	874	269	277	22	11	375	145	+34	-0	+11	+2	+19	6.8
2019	26	MLB	Oakland Athletics	—	670	583	145	36	3	36	73	147	11	1	1	249	343	506	849	257	270	22	11	371	142	+32	-0	+11	+2	+19	6.6
2020	27	MLB	Oakland Athletics	—	152	142	33	9	2	10	8	54	1	0	0	232	278	535	813	303	291	36	5	353	128	+5	+0	+1	+1	+4	1.1
2020	27	MLB	Oakland Athletics	—	152	142	33	9	2	10	8	54	1	0	0	232	278	535	813	303	291	36	5	347	124	+4	+0	+1	+1	+4	1.1
2021	28	MLB	Oakland Athletics	—	622	529	114	16	3	28	80	202	4	3	2	216	323	416	739	200	279	32	13	322	105	+3	-0	+14	+2	+18	3.8
2021	28	MLB	Oakland Athletics	—	622	529	111	15	3	27	80	202	4	3	2	210	318	403	721	193	272	32	13	320	103	+2	-0	+14	+2	+18	3.7
2022	29	MLB	Toronto Blue Jays	—	621	538	122	27	1	27	68	170	10	2	2	227	325	431	756	204	275	27	11	330	111	+8	-0	+3	+2	+18	3.0
2022	29	MLB	Toronto Blue Jays	—	621	538	123	27	1	27	68	170	10	2	2	229	326	433	759	204	277	27	11	336	115	+11	-0	+3	+2	+18	3.4
2023	30	MLB	Toronto Blue Jays	—	581	509	121	39	2	17	62	165	8	4	2	238	330	422	752	185	316	28	11	331	111	+7	+0	+4	+2	+16	3.0
2023	30	MLB	Toronto Blue Jays	—	581	509	122	39	2	17	62	165	8	4	2	240	332	424	756	185	319	28	11	337	116	+10	+0	+4	+2	+16	3.4
2024	31	MLB	San Francisco Giants	—	647	575	148	41	2	29	64	158	6	15	2	257	338	487	825	230	305	24	10	356	131	+23	+2	+10	+2	+18	5.7
2024	31	MLB	San Francisco Giants	—	647	575	142	39	2	27	64	158	6	15	2	247	329	463	791	216	293	24	10	349	125	+18	+2	+10	+2	+18	5.2
2025	32	MLB	San Francisco Giants	—	535	454	110	24	2	23	71	126	6	9	4	242	352	456	808	214	282	24	13	352	127	+16	+0	+5	+2	+15	3.9
2025	32	MLB	San Francisco Giants	—	535	454	105	23	2	21	71	126	6	9	4	231	343	430	772	198	270	24	13	344	121	+13	+0	+5	+2	+15	3.5
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	33	MLB	SF	—	352	307	72	18	1	7	37	81	5	0	2	235	327	368	695	134	293	23	11	308	94	-2	-1	+1	+1	+10	0.9
YTD	33	MLB	SF	—	352	307	72	18	1	7	37	81	5	0	2	235	327	368	695	134	293	23	11	314	98	-1	-1	+1	+1	+10	1.1
ROS	33	MLB	SF	100%	234	203	49	13	1	7	26	55	3	2	1	241	335	417	753	177	292	23	11	336	115	+4	+0	+2	+1	+7	1.3
ROS	33	MLB	SF	100%	235	204	48	13	1	7	26	55	3	2	1	235	330	412	742	176	286	23	11	321	104	+1	+0	+2	+1	+7	1.0
FULL	33	MLB	SF	—	587	511	120	31	2	14	63	136	8	2	3	235	328	386	714	151	290	23	11	313	98	-1	-1	+2	+2	+17	1.9
TOT	33	MLB	SF	—	586	510	121	31	2	14	63	136	8	2	3	237	330	388	718	151	293	23	11	319	103	+2	-1	+2	+2	+17	2.2
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	34	MLB	SF	100%	481	419	96	25	2	14	53	116	6	3	2	229	324	399	723	169	283	24	11	325	107	+4	-0	-2	+2	+14	1.7
2028	35	MLB	SF	100%	422	368	81	20	2	12	46	105	5	2	1	220	315	383	698	163	272	25	11	312	97	-1	+0	-3	+2	+12	0.9
2029	36	MLB	SF	100%	362	316	66	16	2	9	39	93	4	1	1	209	304	358	661	149	262	26	11	299	87	-5	-0	-4	+1	+10	0.2
2030	37	MLB	SF	100%	297	261	51	12	1	7	31	78	3	1	0	195	288	330	618	134	252	26	10	285	76	-8	+0	-5	+1	+8	-0.3
2027	34	MLB	SF	100%	481	419	94	24	2	13	53	116	6	3	2	224	320	384	704	160	277	24	11	310	95	-2	-0	-2	+2	+14	1.1
2028	35	MLB	SF	100%	422	368	80	20	2	11	46	105	5	2	1	217	313	372	685	155	267	25	11	298	86	-7	+0	-3	+2	+12	0.4
2029	36	MLB	SF	100%	362	316	65	15	2	9	39	93	4	1	1	206	301	351	652	146	257	26	11	285	76	-10	-0	-4	+1	+10	-0.2
2030	37	MLB	SF	100%	297	261	51	12	1	7	31	78	3	1	0	195	288	330	618	134	247	26	10	272	66	-11	+0	-5	+1	+8	-0.7
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	6567	5735	1339	337	31	250	711	1707	78	44	23	233	326	434	760	200	285	26	11	334	114	+102	-0	+51	+24	+186	37.0
/ 162G	—			—	650	568	132	33	3	25	70	169	8	4	2	232	325	433	758	201	283	26	11	334	114	+10	+0	+5	+2	+18	3.7
Career	—			—	7928	6983	1587	388	42	318	799	2207	92	62	33	227	315	431	746	204	282	28	10	326	108	+68	-1	+51	+28	+225	37.9
/ 162G	—			—	650	573	130	32	3	26	66	181	8	5	3	227	316	429	745	202	281	28	10	326	108	+6	-0	+4	+2	+18	3.1

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2014	21	A	Beloit Snappers	—	202	190	45	8	3	5	7	46	5	2	1	237	282	389	672	153	288	23	3	299	87	-3	+0	—	—	+6	0.3
2014	21	ROK	AZL Athletics	—	15	14	6	1	1	0	1	1	0	0	0	429	467	643	1.110	214	462	7	7	481	226	+2	+0	—	—	+0	0.3
2015	22	A+	Stockton Ports	—	352	304	76	21	3	23	39	79	5	4	1	250	345	566	911	316	257	22	11	389	156	+22	+0	—	—	+10	3.3
2016	23	AAA	Nashville Sounds	—	85	76	15	1	1	7	9	26	0	0	0	197	282	513	796	316	186	31	11	343	121	+2	+0	—	—	+2	0.4
2016	23	AA	Midland RockHounds	—	504	438	107	26	4	29	59	147	3	7	4	244	338	521	859	276	293	29	12	371	142	+24	-0	—	—	+14	3.9
2017	24	MLB	Oakland Athletics	—	326	290	68	23	2	14	32	92	2	0	3	234	315	472	787	238	290	28	10	343	121	+8	-1	+7	+2	+9	2.5
2017	24	AAA	Nashville Sounds	—	204	175	45	6	2	16	25	63	1	5	4	257	353	589	942	331	293	31	12	399	164	+15	-1	—	—	+6	2.0
2018	25	MLB	Oakland Athletics	—	616	547	152	42	6	24	58	146	9	1	2	278	357	508	865	230	338	24	9	378	148	+33	-1	+7	+2	+17	6.0
2019	26	MLB	Oakland Athletics	—	670	583	145	36	3	36	73	147	11	1	1	249	343	506	849	257	270	22	11	371	142	+32	-0	+11	+2	+19	6.6
2020	27	MLB	Oakland Athletics	—	152	142	33	9	2	10	8	54	1	0	0	232	278	535	813	303	291	36	5	347	124	+4	+0	+1	+1	+4	1.1
2021	28	MLB	Oakland Athletics	—	622	529	111	15	3	27	80	202	4	3	2	210	318	403	721	193	272	32	13	320	103	+2	-0	+14	+2	+18	3.7
2022	29	MLB	Toronto Blue Jays	—	621	538	123	27	1	27	68	170	10	2	2	229	326	433	759	204	277	27	11	336	115	+11	-0	+3	+2	+18	3.4
2023	30	MLB	Toronto Blue Jays	—	581	509	122	39	2	17	62	165	8	4	2	240	332	424	756	185	319	28	11	337	116	+10	+0	+4	+2	+16	3.4
2024	31	MLB	San Francisco Giants	—	647	575	142	39	2	27	64	158	6	15	2	247	329	463	791	216	293	24	10	349	125	+18	+2	+10	+2	+18	5.2
2025	32	MLB	San Francisco Giants	—	535	454	105	23	2	21	71	126	6	9	4	231	343	430	772	198	270	24	13	344	121	+13	+0	+5	+2	+15	3.5
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	4770	4167	1001	253	23	203	516	1260	57	35	18	240	332	458	790	218	292	26	11	348	124	+131	-0	+63	+18	+135	35.4

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Kyle Seagerlast yr '21 career totals — 11 seasons, 6,204 PA	11	6,204	242	55	251	321	442	+22	+55	35.3	32.4
	/162	664	26	6	251	321	442	+2.4	+5.8	3.8	pk7: 29
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 15 projected seasons	15	7,233	273	51	237	326	437	+12	+107	33.5	29.4
	/162	664	25	5	237	326	437	+1.1	+9.8	3.1	pk7: 25
#2Juan Uribelast yr '16 career totals — 16 seasons, 6,715 PA	16	6,715	199	48	255	301	418	+33	+116	33.1	29.1
	/162	664	20	5	255	301	418	+3.3	+11.4	3.3	pk7: 25
#3Todd Frazierlast yr '20 career totals — 10 seasons, 4,909 PA	10	4,909	218	73	242	319	448	+18	+35	27.6	26.2
	/162	664	29	10	242	319	448	+2.4	+4.7	3.7	pk7: 25
#4Mike Moustakaslast yr '23 career totals — 13 seasons, 5,577 PA	13	5,577	215	21	247	307	431	+14	+18	22.8	22.1
	/162	664	26	3	247	307	431	+1.6	+2.1	2.7	pk7: 21
#5Joe Credelast yr '09 career totals — 9 seasons, 3,362 PA	9	3,362	140	4	253	304	444	+9	+62	19.4	19.3
#5Joe Credelast yr '09 career totals — 9 seasons, 3,362 PA	/162	664	28	1	253	304	444	+1.9	+12.3	3.8	pk7: 19
#6Jonathan Schooplast yr '23 career totals — 10 seasons, 4,601 PA	10	4,601	173	15	253	293	428	+2	+60	19.4	18.8
	/162	664	25	2	253	293	428	+0.3	+8.6	2.8	pk7: 18

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Matt Chapman (OGILVIE)	33	48→46	57	45	56	237/330/388	151	293	14	2	23%	11%	103	+2.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Chris Young 2017 · MLB	33	48→49	54→60	46→55	50	246/317/430	184	285	21	9	22%	8%	111	+2.5	230/309/402	172	273	20	9	23%	9%	101	+1.8	207/295/371	164	240	20	7	23%	10%	85	+0.2
✕Jason LaRue 2007 · MLB	33	46→52	52→55	44→40	51	237/334/410	173	284	20	3	23%	9%	114	+2.7	207/293/345	138	248	15	5	22%	8%	80	+0.4	186/266/301	115	224	12	2	22%	7%	55	-0.4
✕Curt Casali 2022 · MLB	33	46	52→50	49→30	53	233/328/401	168	301	19	5	28%	11%	109	+2.4	222/321/344	122	296	13	4	27%	11%	92	+1.2	213/320/302	89	284	9	0	25%	12%	78	+0.1
✕Adam Hyzdu 2005 · MLB	33	47→44	54→50	48→45	53	241/329/423	182	295	22	7	25%	11%	115	+2.7	225/305/376	151	286	17	7	26%	10%	92	+1.2	214/297/361	147	269	17	5	26%	10%	84	+0.5
✕Yan Gomes 2020 · MLB	33	47→54	53→55	48→40	47	242/314/416	173	296	21	3	25%	8%	107	+2.2	249/304/416	167	288	21	4	21%	6%	102	+1.9	250/295/397	147	285	18	2	19%	4%	90	+0.6
✕Austin Barnes 2023 · MLB	33	45→55	51→50	47→50	56	231/324/388	157	265	20	7	21%	11%	104	+2.0	224/298/326	102	278	11	8	22%	9%	76	+0.1	219/291/275	55	281	5	8	22%	9%	58	-0.3
✕Jeff Baker 2014 · MLB	33	50→51	54→55	49→45	47	257/317/440	183	312	22	8	25%	8%	114	+2.7	253/313/415	162	320	17	6	25%	8%	105	+2.1	269/315/402	133	342	8	3	23%	6%	97	+0.6
✕Sean Rodríguez 2018 · MLB	33	45→49	54→60	46→50	46	231/311/404	173	305	22	6	31%	9%	103	+1.9	217/312/387	170	299	21	7	32%	11%	98	+1.6	194/301/363	169	266	22	4	33%	12%	85	+0.2
●Brandon Inge 2010 · MLB	33	43→53	52→55	41→45	49	226/311/392	166	274	21	5	26%	9%	100	+1.7	235/309/392	157	293	18	4	25%	9%	98	+1.6	233/304/385	152	292	17	2	25%	9%	90	+0.8
●Travis d'Arnaud 2022 · MLB	33	49→54	54→60	45	48	251/315/427	177	299	22	3	24%	8%	110	+2.4	249/308/437	188	292	23	3	23%	6%	109	+2.4	245/305/438	193	285	25	1	23%	6%	107	+1.3
✕Ryan Lavarnway 2021 · MLB	33	45	49→55	47→30	47	232/300/382	150	275	17	5	23%	8%	92	+1.2	224/288/383	159	292	20	4	29%	7%	87	+0.8	210/282/368	157	271	20	0	29%	8%	77	+0.1
✕Kelly Stinnett 2003 · MLB	33	47	52→50	45→40	51	242/323/411	169	295	20	8	25%	10%	109	+2.4	244/316/391	147	307	17	5	25%	8%	101	+1.8	229/294/352	123	299	14	0	27%	7%	72	-0.1
✕Tom Wilson 2003 · MLB	32	50	49→50	46→30	49	250/328/395	145	315	18	4	26%	9%	107	+2.2	254/327/404	150	331	15	4	26%	9%	108	+2.3	250/318/403	153	325	15	1	26%	9%	101	+0.9
✕Damian Miller 2003 · MLB	33	52→56	51→55	41→30	52	259/335/428	169	311	19	3	22%	10%	118	+3.0	253/325/398	145	311	15	2	22%	9%	106	+2.2	262/332/397	135	324	12	0	21%	9%	101	+1.2
✕Taylor Motter 2022 · MLB	32	44→50	52→55	47→55	51	228/308/399	171	279	20	4	26%	10%	99	+1.7	221/290/397	176	278	22	8	28%	9%	92	+1.2	202/272/375	174	250	23	8	29%	9%	77	+0.1
✕Todd Frazier 2020 · MLB	34	43→51	55→60	42→50	52	231/320/413	183	262	24	6	22%	10%	109	+2.4	232/307/386	154	277	18	6	22%	8%	96	+1.5	236/303/383	147	298	14	3	24%	6%	92	+0.3
✕Ed Sprague Jr. 2001 · MLB	34	47	55→60	46→30	51	246/315/434	188	273	23	4	20%	8%	112	+2.6	256/328/420	164	296	18	6	19%	9%	113	+2.6	295/374/432	137	347	11	0	17%	10%	128	+0.6
●Abraham Almonte 2022 · MLB	33	48→55	51→55	45→55	59	239/337/413	174	289	18	11	23%	13%	115	+2.8	234/325/419	185	295	25	9	28%	11%	112	+2.6	217/313/404	187	267	28	8	29%	12%	100	+0.9
✕Fernando Tatis 2009 · MLB	34	48→54	53→55	47→45	50	248/315/422	174	286	20	7	21%	8%	108	+2.3	252/315/413	161	289	17	7	19%	7%	105	+2.1	276/335/428	152	308	13	6	14%	6%	111	+1.6
✕Joe Dillon 2009 · MLB	33	48→53	49→55	47→45	54	242/319/397	155	269	16	7	17%	9%	103	+1.9	224/292/337	113	258	11	9	17%	7%	77	+0.1	212/278/303	91	244	9	8	16%	6%	62	-0.4