Kerry Carpenter — OGILVIE

Kerry CarpenterRF Detroit Tigers

Age 28 L/R 6'1" / 220 lbs MLB HR -8% Svc 3.331 · Ctrl thru 2028

2026 ROS PROJECTION231 act + 228 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†vL 49121vR 150

AVG/OBP/SLG.260 / .319 / .510

PA228

HR13

K%27

BB%6

BABIP304

ISO250

MLB%100%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control

Tools · Splits · ContractCON 50 / POW 60

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2024-2026

CONTACT50

Whiff%

5910.1%

xwOBA

790.341

POWER60

Barrel%

8713.8

Avg EV

7790.9

Bat Spd

5972.3

EYE40

Chase%

6528.7%

SPEED50

Sprint

3626.8

Platoon Splits2024-2026 · 833 PA

vs LHP

vs RHP

Edge

738

—

wRC+

146

▶▶R

wOBA

247

376

▶▶R

ISO

158

285

▶▶R

BABIP

190

302

▶▶R

25.3%

24.7%

—

BB%

5.3%

5.8%

▶R

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Arb-1

MLB Debut 2022

Service 3.331 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2028

First FA Year 2029

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext	$1M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2027	Arb-2	$8M	+2.5	$19M	+$12M
2028	Arb-3	$10M	+2.3	$16M	+$7M
Totals		$19M		$37M	+$20M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2019	21	ROK	GCL Tigers West	—	191	168	39	11	2	7	14	26	5	6	0	232	310	446	757	214	230	14	7	324	106	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	21	ROK	GCL Tigers West	—	191	160	51	16	3	9	22	18	5	6	0	319	417	625	1.042	306	307	9	12	440	195	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	23	AA	Erie SeaWolves	—	461	425	95	23	1	12	20	115	9	5	6	224	273	367	640	144	272	25	4	280	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	23	AA	Erie SeaWolves	—	461	416	109	24	1	15	29	94	9	5	6	262	324	433	756	171	299	20	6	332	112	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	24	AA	3 teams	—	513	472	122	25	2	35	28	146	10	3	10	258	314	542	856	284	296	28	5	360	134	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	24	AA	3 teams	—	513	461	138	31	2	36	39	121	10	3	10	299	367	610	976	310	332	24	8	419	179	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	25	MLB	2 teams	—	499	455	127	19	2	23	35	130	8	6	0	279	341	481	823	202	343	26	7	353	128	+16	+1	-5	-5	+14	2.2
2023	25	MLB	2 teams	—	499	453	122	18	2	21	37	127	8	6	0	269	335	457	792	188	330	25	7	351	127	+15	+1	-5	-5	+14	2.1
2024	26	MLB	2 teams	—	311	281	81	18	5	20	23	81	4	0	2	288	351	601	952	313	333	26	7	395	160	+21	-1	-0	-3	+9	2.6
2024	26	MLB	2 teams	—	311	278	78	17	5	18	23	80	4	0	2	281	341	572	913	291	328	26	7	388	155	+19	-1	-0	-3	+9	2.4
2025	27	MLB	2 teams	—	480	452	116	19	5	30	19	110	7	1	1	257	297	520	817	263	274	23	4	347	124	+13	-0	-4	-5	+14	1.8
2025	27	MLB	2 teams	—	480	448	111	18	5	27	19	110	7	1	1	248	287	491	778	243	268	23	4	335	115	+8	-0	-4	-5	+14	1.3
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	28	MLB	DET	—	231	205	45	5	2	13	18	72	5	0	0	220	298	454	752	234	260	31	8	323	106	+1	+0	-4	-2	+7	0.2
YTD	28	MLB	DET	—	231	203	45	5	2	13	18	72	5	0	0	222	298	458	756	236	264	31	8	327	108	+2	+0	-4	-2	+7	0.2
ROS	28	MLB	DET	100%	228	208	54	9	2	13	14	61	4	1	0	260	319	510	828	250	304	27	6	363	136	+9	+0	-0	-2	+6	1.3
ROS	28	MLB	DET	100%	228	208	53	8	2	13	14	61	4	1	0	255	314	500	814	245	298	27	6	342	120	+5	+0	-0	-2	+6	0.9
FULL	28	MLB	DET	—	459	413	98	13	4	26	32	133	9	1	0	237	306	477	783	240	279	29	7	333	113	+7	+0	-4	-5	+13	1.1
TOT	28	MLB	DET	—	459	413	99	14	4	26	32	133	9	1	0	240	308	482	790	242	283	29	7	343	121	+11	+0	-4	-5	+13	1.5
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	29	MLB	DET	100%	446	407	107	17	4	26	28	120	8	1	0	263	323	516	839	253	308	27	6	364	136	+18	+0	-2	-5	+13	2.5
2028	30	MLB	DET	100%	435	398	103	16	4	25	27	118	7	1	0	259	317	508	825	249	306	27	6	360	134	+17	+0	-3	-5	+12	2.2
2029	31	MLB	DET	100%	420	384	99	15	4	24	26	116	7	1	0	258	317	505	822	247	303	28	6	356	130	+14	+0	-3	-4	+12	1.9
2030	32	MLB	DET	100%	401	366	92	14	3	22	25	112	7	1	0	251	312	486	798	235	298	28	6	349	125	+11	+0	-4	-4	+11	1.5
2031	33	MLB	DET	100%	371	339	83	12	3	20	23	105	6	1	0	245	304	475	779	230	292	28	6	340	118	+8	+0	-5	-4	+11	1.0
2032	34	MLB	DET	100%	326	298	71	10	3	17	20	95	5	0	0	238	297	463	760	225	283	29	6	329	110	+4	+0	-5	-3	+9	0.4
2027	29	MLB	DET	100%	446	407	106	17	4	25	28	120	8	1	0	260	321	506	827	246	303	27	6	343	121	+10	+0	-2	-5	+13	1.7
2028	30	MLB	DET	100%	435	398	102	16	4	24	27	118	7	1	0	256	315	497	812	241	301	27	6	340	118	+9	+0	-3	-5	+12	1.5
2029	31	MLB	DET	100%	420	384	97	15	4	23	26	116	7	1	0	253	312	492	804	240	297	28	6	335	115	+7	+0	-3	-4	+12	1.2
2030	32	MLB	DET	100%	401	366	91	14	4	21	25	112	7	1	0	249	309	481	790	232	292	28	6	329	110	+4	+0	-4	-4	+11	0.8
2031	33	MLB	DET	100%	371	339	81	12	3	19	23	105	6	1	0	239	299	460	759	221	286	28	6	321	104	+2	+0	-5	-4	+11	0.4
2032	34	MLB	DET	100%	326	298	69	9	3	16	20	95	5	0	0	232	291	443	734	211	278	29	6	310	96	-2	+0	-5	-3	+9	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	3959	3618	925	146	37	211	241	1055	66	13	3	256	313	491	805	236	301	27	6	341	119	+85	+1	-31	-47	+112	12.3
/ 162G	—			—	650	594	152	24	6	35	40	173	11	2	0	256	314	493	808	237	301	27	6	341	119	+14	+0	-5	-8	+18	2.0
Career	—			—	5082	4653	1189	208	40	274	302	1335	87	27	19	256	313	494	807	239	297	26	6	347	124	+138	-2	-31	-54	+144	19.8
/ 162G	—			—	650	595	152	27	5	35	39	171	11	3	2	255	313	494	807	239	298	26	6	347	124	+18	-0	-4	-7	+18	2.5

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2019	21	ROK	GCL Tigers West	—	191	160	51	16	3	9	22	18	5	6	0	319	417	625	1.042	306	307	9	12	440	195	+20	+1	—	—	+5	2.8
2021	23	AA	Erie SeaWolves	—	461	416	109	24	1	15	29	94	9	5	6	262	324	433	756	171	299	20	6	332	112	+6	-1	—	—	+13	1.8
2022	24	MLB	Detroit Tigers	—	113	103	26	4	1	6	6	32	3	0	0	252	312	485	798	233	303	28	5	347	124	+3	+0	-1	-5	+3	-0.0
2022	24	AAA	Toledo Mud Hens	—	138	118	39	11	1	8	17	17	2	2	7	331	423	644	1.067	314	330	12	12	456	207	+17	-2	—	—	+4	1.9
2022	24	AA	Erie SeaWolves	—	262	240	73	16	0	22	16	72	5	1	3	304	360	646	1.006	342	347	27	6	431	188	+26	-1	—	—	+7	3.3
2023	25	MLB	Detroit Tigers	—	459	418	116	17	2	20	32	115	8	6	0	278	341	471	812	194	338	25	7	359	133	+17	+1	-5	-5	+13	2.1
2023	25	AAA	Toledo Mud Hens	—	40	35	6	1	0	1	5	12	0	0	0	171	275	286	561	114	227	30	12	262	59	-2	+0	—	—	+1	-0.1
2024	26	MLB	Detroit Tigers	—	296	264	75	16	5	18	22	75	4	0	2	284	345	587	932	303	328	25	7	395	160	+20	-1	-0	-3	+8	2.5
2024	26	AAA	Toledo Mud Hens	—	15	14	3	1	0	0	1	5	0	0	0	214	267	286	552	71	333	33	7	253	52	-1	+0	—	—	+0	-0.0
2025	27	MLB	Detroit Tigers	—	464	433	109	18	5	26	18	106	7	1	1	252	290	497	787	245	274	23	4	339	118	+9	-0	-4	-5	+13	1.4
2025	27	AAA	Toledo Mud Hens	—	16	15	2	0	0	1	1	4	0	0	0	133	188	333	521	200	100	25	6	230	34	-1	+0	—	—	+0	-0.1
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	1332	1218	326	55	13	70	78	328	22	7	3	268	322	507	828	239	310	25	6	359	133	+49	+0	-9	-19	+38	6.0

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Jay Brucelast yr '20 career totals — 13 seasons, 6,603 PA	13	6,603	318	65	245	314	469	-71	-54	19.6	19.5
#1Jay Brucelast yr '20 career totals — 13 seasons, 6,603 PA	/162	664	32	7	245	314	469	-7.1	-5.4	2.0	pk7: 19
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 12 projected seasons	12	4,421	245	15	258	312	501	-47	-40	21.0	18.6
	/162	664	37	2	258	312	501	-7.1	-6.0	3.2	pk7: 16
#2Jose Guillenlast yr '10 career totals — 11 seasons, 4,969 PA	11	4,969	183	26	272	327	452	-50	-51	14.1	15.0
	/162	664	24	3	272	327	452	-6.6	-6.8	1.9	pk7: 16
#3Luke Scottlast yr '13 career totals — 9 seasons, 3,193 PA	9	3,193	135	17	258	340	481	-40	-13	14.7	15.0
#3Luke Scottlast yr '13 career totals — 9 seasons, 3,193 PA	/162	664	28	4	258	340	481	-8.4	-2.7	3.1	pk7: 15
#4Khris Davislast yr '21 career totals — 9 seasons, 3,804 PA	9	3,804	221	18	242	314	491	-40	-39	13.3	13.4
	/162	664	39	3	242	314	491	-7.0	-6.9	2.3	pk7: 13
#5Corey Hartlast yr '15 career totals — 10 seasons, 4,113 PA	10	4,113	162	85	271	329	478	-48	-61	12.5	13.1
	/162	664	26	14	271	329	478	-7.8	-9.9	2.0	pk7: 14
#6Ryan Ludwicklast yr '14 career totals — 11 seasons, 3,938 PA	11	3,938	150	17	261	330	451	-42	-34	11.8	12.7
	/162	664	25	3	261	330	451	-7.0	-5.8	2.0	pk7: 14

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Kerry Carpenter (OGILVIE)	28	50	60	50	40	240/308/482	242	283	26	1	29%	7%	121	+1.5	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
●Jared Walsh 2021 · MLB	28	43→53	62→65	46→30	44	238/305/465	227	296	30	3	30%	8%	116	+2.8	242/305/442	200	310	26	3	29%	8%	110	+2.4	225/295/411	186	296	24	2	31%	8%	92	+0.9
✕Mike Jacobs 2009 · MLB	28	47→53	61→65	45→40	47	255/310/484	228	283	29	3	22%	7%	123	+3.3	228/287/406	178	276	23	3	26%	8%	92	+1.2	214/276/368	154	267	20	1	27%	8%	77	+0.1
✕Bryan LaHair 2012 · MLB	29	48→55	62→65	44→40	42	259/307/488	230	310	31	3	28%	6%	123	+3.3	240/301/420	180	319	23	6	30%	8%	102	+1.9	211/280/343	132	291	15	3	31%	9%	69	-0.3
✕Jake Fox 2010 · MLB	28	49→54	61→65	47→45	43	262/320/486	225	293	29	6	22%	6%	128	+3.7	231/288/405	174	266	20	3	22%	5%	93	+1.3	222/278/389	167	248	21	0	21%	5%	83	+0.4
●Hunter Renfroe 2020 · MLB	28	41→47	68→70	50→45	45	241/303/506	265	274	38	6	28%	8%	126	+3.5	237/303/482	245	265	34	5	25%	8%	120	+3.1	243/305/458	215	272	29	1	23%	8%	112	+2.3
●Jesús Aguilar 2019 · MLB	29	47→50	63→65	46→40	48	258/328/493	235	300	33	2	26%	9%	133	+4.0	259/337/460	201	297	27	2	22%	10%	128	+3.6	255/335/439	185	284	24	0	20%	10%	117	+1.8
★Chris Davis 2014 · MLB	28	49→53	68→70	43→40	46	266/336/532	266	325	37	4	30%	9%	147	+5.0	232/329/476	244	290	34	3	31%	11%	129	+3.7	222/328/456	233	288	33	1	33%	13%	117	+3.0
★Geoff Jenkins 2002 · MLB	28	53→58	62→65	50→45	45	278/343/514	236	332	30	9	25%	7%	144	+4.8	271/342/489	218	320	26	4	23%	8%	137	+4.3	280/357/501	221	329	26	1	22%	9%	136	+4.4
●Brandon Moss 2013 · MLB	29	45→50	62→65	43→45	44	244/306/470	226	291	30	7	28%	7%	118	+3.0	250/330/484	234	303	31	4	27%	10%	131	+3.9	241/329/462	222	294	29	2	27%	10%	118	+2.7
✕Franmil Reyes 2022 · MLB	27	47→51	65	47→45	47	256/325/497	242	316	34	4	30%	9%	133	+4.0	226/287/390	164	306	22	4	32%	8%	89	+0.9	208/267/343	135	287	18	2	33%	7%	66	-0.4
✕Matt Adams 2018 · MLB	29	48→57	60→65	43→40	46	259/312/480	221	297	29	3	24%	7%	123	+3.3	244/301/473	229	286	33	3	27%	7%	117	+2.9	213/266/406	193	259	30	0	31%	6%	80	+0.2
●Evan Gattis 2015 · MLB	28	46→47	63→70	45→30	43	256/307/490	234	283	32	2	23%	6%	124	+3.4	247/299/462	215	273	29	2	21%	6%	113	+2.6	245/298/460	215	266	29	1	20%	6%	107	+1.8
★Khris Davis 2016 · MLB	28	44→51	62→70	47→45	47	244/311/475	231	279	30	8	25%	8%	121	+3.2	252/324/530	278	287	40	4	27%	9%	141	+4.6	251/329/547	297	280	44	2	28%	9%	144	+5.1
✕Eddie Rosario 2020 · MLB	28	52→56	59→60	45→50	45	278/311/485	207	291	28	6	16%	5%	124	+3.4	253/297/438	185	270	25	9	17%	6%	105	+2.1	240/289/407	168	276	20	8	21%	6%	91	+0.8
●Cody Ross 2009 · MLB	28	50→57	60→65	50→45	47	265/328/494	229	303	27	7	22%	8%	133	+4.0	268/326/457	189	314	21	8	21%	7%	122	+3.3	267/329/443	177	313	20	7	21%	7%	115	+2.5
●Marcus Thames 2006 · MLB	29	47→46	63→70	46→40	48	255/322/492	237	290	32	5	24%	8%	130	+3.8	252/312/513	261	281	37	4	25%	8%	132	+4.0	245/304/521	275	264	41	2	25%	7%	129	+2.1
✕Hank Blalock 2010 · MLB	29	47→57	59→65	52→45	46	254/304/472	218	275	27	5	20%	6%	117	+2.9	248/302/412	164	289	20	8	21%	7%	100	+1.7	260/311/360	100	315	11	9	21%	6%	88	+0.3
●Randal Grichuk 2020 · MLB	28	43→50	62→70	46→45	42	237/287/467	231	275	30	4	27%	6%	110	+2.4	241/287/432	191	277	25	3	23%	5%	99	+1.7	255/310/448	193	290	21	1	20%	6%	110	+1.5
✕Daryle Ward 2002 · MLB	27	48→56	61→60	47→30	47	259/312/481	223	283	30	3	21%	7%	123	+3.3	255/306/412	157	285	18	3	17%	7%	102	+1.8	259/324/444	185	273	22	0	14%	8%	108	+1.2
●Pedro Álvarez 2014 · MLB	27	43→46	61→60	48→45	46	237/305/455	218	294	30	3	30%	9%	113	+2.6	241/314/454	213	289	30	6	27%	9%	117	+2.9	238/316/450	212	278	30	5	26%	10%	108	+1.7