Kerry Carpenter
RF Detroit Tigers| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 26 | MLBDET | 296 | .284/.345/.587 | 18 | 0 | 158 | 2.3 |
| 2025 | 27 | MLBDET | 464 | .252/.290/.497 | 26 | 1 | 121 | 1.3 |
| 2026 | 28 | MLBDET | 259 | .208/.277/.416 | 13 | 0 | 95 | -0.3 |
| 2027PROJ | 29 | MLBDET | 134 | .249/.307/.486 | 7 | 1 | 124 | 0.5 |
| 2028PROJ | 30 | MLBDET | 254 | .245/.303/.477 | 14 | 0 | 121 | 0.5 |
| 2029PROJ | 31 | MLBDET | 238 | .240/.297/.466 | 13 | 0 | 116 | 0.3 |
Tools · Splits · ContractCON 50 / POW 60
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2019 | 21 | ROK | GCL Tigers West | — | 191 | 160 | 51 | 16 | 3 | 9 | 22 | 18 | 5 | 6 | 0 | 319 | 417 | 625 | 1.042 | 306 | 307 | 9 | 12 | 440 | 101 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 23 | AA | Erie SeaWolves | — | 461 | 416 | 109 | 24 | 1 | 15 | 29 | 94 | 9 | 5 | 6 | 262 | 324 | 433 | 756 | 171 | 299 | 20 | 6 | 332 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | MLB | Detroit Tigers | — | 113 | 103 | 26 | 4 | 1 | 6 | 6 | 32 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 252 | 312 | 485 | 798 | 233 | 303 | 28 | 5 | 347 | 126 | +4 | +0 | -1 | -5 | +2 | -0.0 |
| 2022 | 24 | AAA | Toledo Mud Hens | — | 138 | 118 | 39 | 11 | 1 | 8 | 17 | 17 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 331 | 423 | 644 | 1.067 | 314 | 330 | 12 | 12 | 456 | 135 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | AA | Erie SeaWolves | — | 262 | 240 | 73 | 16 | 0 | 22 | 16 | 72 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 304 | 360 | 646 | 1.006 | 342 | 347 | 27 | 6 | 431 | 114 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | MLB | Detroit Tigers | — | 459 | 418 | 116 | 17 | 2 | 20 | 32 | 115 | 8 | 6 | 0 | 278 | 341 | 471 | 812 | 194 | 338 | 25 | 7 | 359 | 131 | +17 | +1 | -5 | -5 | +10 | 1.8 |
| 2023 | 25 | AAA | Toledo Mud Hens | — | 40 | 35 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 171 | 275 | 286 | 561 | 114 | 227 | 30 | 12 | 262 | 24 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 26 | MLB | Detroit Tigers | — | 296 | 264 | 75 | 16 | 5 | 18 | 22 | 75 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 284 | 345 | 587 | 932 | 303 | 328 | 25 | 7 | 395 | 158 | +20 | -1 | -0 | -3 | +6 | 2.3 |
| 2024 | 26 | AAA | Toledo Mud Hens | — | 15 | 14 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 214 | 267 | 286 | 552 | 71 | 333 | 33 | 7 | 253 | 11 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 27 | MLB | Detroit Tigers | — | 464 | 433 | 109 | 18 | 5 | 26 | 18 | 106 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 252 | 290 | 497 | 787 | 245 | 274 | 23 | 4 | 339 | 121 | +12 | -0 | -4 | -5 | +10 | 1.3 |
| 2025 | 27 | AAA | Toledo Mud Hens | — | 16 | 15 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 133 | 188 | 333 | 521 | 200 | 100 | 25 | 6 | 230 | 7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 28 | MLB | Detroit Tigers | — | 259 | 231 | 48 | 5 | 2 | 13 | 18 | 75 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 208 | 277 | 416 | 693 | 208 | 240 | 29 | 7 | 302 | 95 | -1 | +0 | -4 | -3 | +6 | -0.3 |
| ▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MLB Career | — | — | 1591 | 1449 | 374 | 60 | 15 | 83 | 96 | 403 | 27 | 7 | 3 | 258 | 314 | 492 | 806 | 234 | 299 | 25 | 6 | 350 | 123 | +43 | +0 | -13 | -22 | +34 | 4.3 | ||
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2019 | 21 | ROK MLE | GCL Tigers West | — | 191 | 169 | 38 | 11 | 2 | 7 | 13 | 26 | 5 | 6 | 0 | 225 | 299 | 438 | 737 | 213 | 217 | 14 | 7 | 317 | 101 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 23 | AA MLE | Erie SeaWolves | — | 461 | 426 | 97 | 22 | 1 | 11 | 19 | 112 | 9 | 5 | 6 | 228 | 275 | 362 | 637 | 134 | 269 | 24 | 4 | 278 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | MLB MLE | Detroit Tigers | — | 113 | 103 | 26 | 4 | 1 | 6 | 6 | 32 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 252 | 312 | 485 | 798 | 233 | 303 | 28 | 5 | 355 | 126 | +4 | +0 | -1 | -5 | +2 | -0.0 |
| 2022 | 24 | AAA MLE | Toledo Mud Hens | — | 138 | 122 | 34 | 9 | 1 | 6 | 13 | 20 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 279 | 358 | 516 | 874 | 238 | 285 | 14 | 9 | 367 | 135 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | AA MLE | Erie SeaWolves | — | 262 | 247 | 60 | 12 | 0 | 18 | 9 | 88 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 243 | 284 | 510 | 794 | 267 | 297 | 34 | 3 | 336 | 114 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | MLB MLE | Detroit Tigers | — | 459 | 421 | 118 | 17 | 2 | 21 | 29 | 115 | 8 | 6 | 0 | 280 | 338 | 480 | 818 | 200 | 338 | 25 | 6 | 361 | 131 | +17 | +1 | -5 | -5 | +10 | 1.8 |
| 2023 | 25 | AAA MLE | Toledo Mud Hens | — | 40 | 37 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 162 | 225 | 270 | 495 | 108 | 210 | 35 | 8 | 203 | 24 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 26 | MLB MLE | Detroit Tigers | — | 296 | 268 | 76 | 16 | 5 | 19 | 21 | 75 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 284 | 345 | 593 | 938 | 310 | 328 | 25 | 7 | 402 | 158 | +20 | -1 | -0 | -3 | +6 | 2.3 |
| 2024 | 26 | AAA MLE | Toledo Mud Hens | — | 15 | 14 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 214 | 267 | 286 | 552 | 71 | 274 | 40 | 7 | 185 | 11 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 27 | MLB MLE | Detroit Tigers | — | 464 | 437 | 111 | 18 | 5 | 27 | 18 | 106 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 254 | 294 | 503 | 798 | 249 | 274 | 23 | 4 | 347 | 121 | +12 | -0 | -4 | -5 | +10 | 1.3 |
| 2025 | 27 | AAA MLE | Toledo Mud Hens | — | 16 | 15 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 133 | 188 | 333 | 521 | 200 | 91 | 25 | 6 | 178 | 7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 28 | MLB MLE | Detroit Tigers | — | 259 | 233 | 49 | 5 | 2 | 14 | 18 | 75 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 210 | 281 | 429 | 710 | 219 | 240 | 29 | 7 | 309 | 95 | -1 | +0 | -4 | -3 | +6 | -0.3 |
| 2019 | 21 | ROK MLE | GCL Tigers West | — | 191 | 169 | 38 | 11 | 2 | 7 | 13 | 26 | 5 | 6 | 0 | 225 | 299 | 438 | 737 | 213 | 221 | 14 | 7 | 317 | 101 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 21 | ROK RAW | GCL Tigers West | — | 191 | 160 | 51 | 16 | 3 | 9 | 22 | 18 | 5 | 6 | 0 | 319 | 417 | 625 | 1.042 | 306 | 307 | 9 | 12 | 440 | 101 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 23 | AA MLE | Erie SeaWolves | — | 461 | 426 | 97 | 22 | 1 | 11 | 19 | 112 | 9 | 5 | 6 | 228 | 275 | 362 | 637 | 134 | 277 | 24 | 4 | 278 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 23 | AA RAW | Erie SeaWolves | — | 461 | 416 | 109 | 24 | 1 | 15 | 29 | 94 | 9 | 5 | 6 | 262 | 324 | 433 | 756 | 171 | 299 | 20 | 6 | 332 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 513 | 472 | 121 | 26 | 2 | 30 | 28 | 141 | 10 | 3 | 10 | 256 | 312 | 511 | 822 | 254 | 299 | 27 | 5 | 348 | 122 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | AA RAW | 3 teams | — | 513 | 461 | 138 | 31 | 2 | 36 | 39 | 121 | 10 | 3 | 10 | 299 | 367 | 610 | 976 | 310 | 332 | 24 | 8 | 419 | 122 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | MLB MLE | 2 teams | — | 499 | 458 | 124 | 18 | 2 | 22 | 32 | 129 | 8 | 6 | 0 | 271 | 329 | 463 | 792 | 192 | 331 | 26 | 6 | 348 | 122 | +13 | +1 | -5 | -5 | +11 | 1.5 |
| 2023 | 25 | MLB RAW | 2 teams | — | 499 | 453 | 122 | 18 | 2 | 21 | 37 | 127 | 8 | 6 | 0 | 269 | 335 | 457 | 792 | 188 | 330 | 25 | 7 | 351 | 122 | +13 | +1 | -5 | -5 | +11 | 1.5 |
| 2024 | 26 | MLB MLE | 2 teams | — | 311 | 282 | 79 | 17 | 5 | 19 | 22 | 81 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 280 | 341 | 578 | 919 | 298 | 324 | 26 | 7 | 391 | 151 | +19 | -1 | -0 | -3 | +7 | 2.2 |
| 2024 | 26 | MLB RAW | 2 teams | — | 311 | 278 | 78 | 17 | 5 | 18 | 23 | 80 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 281 | 341 | 572 | 913 | 291 | 328 | 26 | 7 | 388 | 151 | +19 | -1 | -0 | -3 | +7 | 2.2 |
| 2025 | 27 | MLB MLE | 2 teams | — | 480 | 452 | 113 | 18 | 5 | 28 | 19 | 110 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 250 | 291 | 498 | 789 | 248 | 269 | 23 | 4 | 341 | 117 | +10 | -0 | -4 | -5 | +10 | 1.2 |
| 2025 | 27 | MLB RAW | 2 teams | — | 480 | 448 | 111 | 18 | 5 | 27 | 19 | 110 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 248 | 287 | 491 | 778 | 243 | 268 | 23 | 4 | 335 | 117 | +10 | -0 | -4 | -5 | +10 | 1.2 |
| 2026 | 28 | MLB MLE | Detroit Tigers | — | 259 | 233 | 49 | 5 | 2 | 14 | 18 | 75 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 210 | 281 | 429 | 710 | 219 | 238 | 29 | 7 | 309 | 95 | -1 | +0 | -4 | -3 | +6 | -0.3 |
| 2026 | 28 | MLB RAW | Detroit Tigers | — | 259 | 231 | 48 | 5 | 2 | 13 | 18 | 75 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 208 | 277 | 416 | 693 | 208 | 240 | 29 | 7 | 302 | 95 | -1 | +0 | -4 | -3 | +6 | -0.3 |
| 2019 | 21 | ROK MLE | GCL Tigers West | — | 191 | 171 | 38 | 11 | 2 | 7 | 13 | 26 | 5 | 6 | 0 | 222 | 299 | 433 | 732 | 211 | 217 | 14 | 7 | 317 | 101 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 23 | AA MLE | Erie SeaWolves | — | 461 | 430 | 97 | 22 | 1 | 11 | 19 | 112 | 9 | 5 | 6 | 226 | 275 | 358 | 633 | 133 | 269 | 24 | 4 | 278 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 513 | 470 | 121 | 26 | 2 | 30 | 28 | 141 | 10 | 3 | 10 | 257 | 312 | 513 | 825 | 255 | 295 | 27 | 5 | 348 | 122 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | MLB MLE | 2 teams | — | 499 | 456 | 124 | 18 | 2 | 22 | 32 | 129 | 8 | 6 | 0 | 272 | 329 | 465 | 794 | 193 | 328 | 26 | 6 | 348 | 122 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 26 | MLB MLE | 2 teams | — | 311 | 282 | 79 | 17 | 5 | 19 | 22 | 81 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 280 | 341 | 578 | 919 | 298 | 325 | 26 | 7 | 391 | 151 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 27 | MLB MLE | 2 teams | — | 480 | 451 | 113 | 18 | 5 | 28 | 19 | 110 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 251 | 291 | 499 | 790 | 248 | 268 | 23 | 4 | 341 | 117 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 28 | MLB MLE | Detroit Tigers | — | 259 | 234 | 49 | 5 | 2 | 14 | 18 | 75 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 209 | 281 | 427 | 709 | 218 | 240 | 29 | 7 | 309 | 95 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 26 | MLB MLE | 2 teams | — | 311 | 282 | 79 | 17 | 5 | 19 | 22 | 81 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 280 | 341 | 578 | 919 | 298 | 325 | 26 | 7 | 391 | 151 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 27 | MLB MLE | 2 teams | — | 480 | 451 | 113 | 18 | 5 | 28 | 19 | 110 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 251 | 291 | 499 | 790 | 248 | 268 | 23 | 4 | 341 | 117 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 28 | MLB MLE | Detroit Tigers | — | 259 | 234 | 49 | 5 | 2 | 14 | 18 | 75 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 209 | 281 | 427 | 709 | 218 | 240 | 29 | 7 | 309 | 95 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB MLE | DET | 100% | 322 | 295 | 74 | 11 | 3 | 18 | 19 | 83 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 254 | 312 | 500 | 812 | 246 | 289 | 26 | 6 | 352 | 124 | +9 | +0 | -2 | -3 | +7 | 0.5 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB CTX | DET | 100% | 134 | 123 | 29 | 4 | 1 | 7 | 8 | 35 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 249 | 307 | 486 | 793 | 237 | 284 | 26 | 6 | 344 | 124 | +4 | +0 | -1 | -1 | +3 | 0.5 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 30 | MLB MLE | DET | 100% | 254 | 233 | 57 | 8 | 2 | 14 | 15 | 67 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 251 | 308 | 491 | 799 | 240 | 286 | 26 | 6 | 347 | 121 | +6 | +0 | -4 | -3 | +6 | 0.5 |
| 2029 | 31 | MLB MLE | DET | 100% | 238 | 218 | 54 | 8 | 2 | 13 | 14 | 63 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 246 | 302 | 480 | 782 | 234 | 282 | 26 | 6 | 340 | 116 | +5 | +0 | -4 | -3 | +5 | 0.3 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB CTX | DET | 100% | 254 | 233 | 57 | 8 | 2 | 14 | 15 | 67 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 245 | 303 | 477 | 780 | 232 | 281 | 26 | 6 | 339 | 121 | +6 | +0 | -4 | -3 | +6 | 0.5 |
| 2029 | 31 | MLB CTX | DET | 100% | 238 | 218 | 52 | 7 | 2 | 13 | 14 | 63 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 240 | 297 | 466 | 763 | 225 | 277 | 26 | 6 | 332 | 116 | +5 | +0 | -4 | -3 | +5 | 0.3 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 2083 | 1900 | 483 | 75 | 19 | 110 | 125 | 533 | 35 | 7 | 3 | 254 | 311 | 487 | 798 | 233 | 294 | 26 | 6 | 346 | 114 | +54 | +0 | -21 | -27 | +45 | 5.2 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 593 | 150 | 23 | 6 | 34 | 39 | 166 | 11 | 2 | 1 | 253 | 310 | 484 | 794 | 231 | 292 | 26 | 6 | 346 | 114 | +17 | +0 | -7 | -9 | +14 | 1.6 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 3340 | 3066 | 764 | 138 | 24 | 166 | 188 | 839 | 58 | 22 | 19 | 249 | 305 | 472 | 777 | 223 | 287 | 25 | 6 | 336 | 114 | +58 | +0 | -22 | -29 | +48 | 5.6 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 597 | 149 | 27 | 5 | 32 | 37 | 163 | 11 | 4 | 4 | 250 | 305 | 472 | 778 | 223 | 287 | 25 | 6 | 336 | 114 | +17 | +0 | -6 | -8 | +14 | 1.7 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2025 AAAToledo Mud Hens · 16 PAwOBA .223 → .178 (−45)K% 25.0% → 28.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.00% | ÷1.073 | ×1.200 | — | — | 27.96% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.25% | ÷0.988 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.992 | 4.33% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.992 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 9.09% | ÷0.993 | ×0.930 | — | ×0.992 | 8.44% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.953 | ×0.830 | — | ×0.992 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.905 | ×0.970 | — | ×0.992 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 9.09% | ÷0.872 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.992 | 7.24% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 74, 1B 99, 2B 91, 3B 81, K 115, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .223 → .178; ISO .200 → .157; BABIP .100 → .091. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AAAToledo Mud Hens · 15 PAwOBA .246 → .185 (−61)K% 33.3% → 39.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 33.33% | ÷1.022 | ×1.200 | — | — | 39.15% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.67% | ÷1.016 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.003 | 4.54% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.003 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.22% | ÷1.117 | ×0.930 | — | ×1.003 | 18.55% |
| Doubles /BIP | 11.11% | ÷1.049 | ×0.830 | — | ×1.003 | 8.82% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.070 | ×0.970 | — | ×1.003 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.792 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.003 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 58, 1B 123, 2B 110, 3B 114, K 104, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .246 → .185; ISO .071 → .053; BABIP .333 → .274. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AAAToledo Mud Hens · 40 PAwOBA .255 → .203 (−53)K% 30.0% → 36.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 30.00% | ÷0.995 | ×1.200 | — | — | 36.17% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.50% | ÷1.006 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.018 | 8.73% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.018 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 17.39% | ÷0.965 | ×0.930 | — | ×1.018 | 17.06% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.35% | ÷1.156 | ×0.830 | — | ×1.018 | 3.18% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.970 | — | ×1.018 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.35% | ÷0.901 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.018 | 3.44% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 80, 1B 93, 2B 131, 3B 130, K 99, BB 101 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .255 → .203; ISO .114 → .085; BABIP .227 → .210. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 AAErie SeaWolves · 262 PAwOBA .416 → .336 (−80)K% 27.5% → 33.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 27.48% | ÷0.995 | ×1.220 | — | — | 33.68% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 4.96% | ÷0.992 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.998 | 3.49% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.91% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.998 | 1.62% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.83% | ÷1.042 | ×0.970 | ×0.979 | ×0.998 | 18.95% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.52% | ÷1.042 | ×0.860 | ×0.979 | ×0.998 | 7.68% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.950 | ×0.979 | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 13.10% | ÷0.926 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.998 | 11.00% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 85, 1B 108, 2B 108, 3B 80, K 99, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.979.
Result: wOBA .416 → .336; ISO .342 → .272; BABIP .347 → .297. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 AAAToledo Mud Hens · 138 PAwOBA .447 → .367 (−80)K% 12.3% → 14.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 12.32% | ÷1.008 | ×1.200 | — | — | 14.67% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.32% | ÷0.964 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.033 | 9.11% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.45% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.033 | 1.41% |
| Singles /BIP | 18.81% | ÷1.015 | ×0.930 | ×0.975 | ×1.033 | 17.35% |
| Doubles /BIP | 10.89% | ÷1.015 | ×0.830 | ×0.975 | ×1.033 | 8.97% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.99% | ÷1.150 | ×0.970 | ×0.975 | ×1.033 | 0.84% |
| Home runs /BIP | 7.92% | ÷1.026 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.033 | 5.58% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 105, 1B 103, 2B 103, 3B 130, K 102, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.975.
Result: wOBA .447 → .367; ISO .314 → .240; BABIP .330 → .285. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 AAErie SeaWolves · 461 PAwOBA .325 → .278 (−47)K% 20.4% → 24.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.39% | ÷1.026 | ×1.220 | — | — | 24.24% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.64% | ÷0.945 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.012 | 4.17% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.95% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×1.012 | 1.68% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.43% | ÷1.030 | ×0.940 | ×0.982 | ×1.012 | 19.44% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.45% | ÷0.935 | ×0.870 | ×0.982 | ×1.012 | 6.89% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.31% | ÷1.150 | ×0.920 | ×0.982 | ×1.012 | 0.25% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.66% | ÷1.055 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.012 | 3.49% |
Factors used: level-wide AA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 111, 1B 106, 2B 87, 3B 130, K 105, BB 89 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.982.
Result: wOBA .325 → .278; ISO .171 → .138; BABIP .299 → .269. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2019 ROKGCL Tigers West · 191 PAwOBA .437 → .317 (−120)K% 9.4% → 13.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 9.42% | ÷1.000 | ×1.440 | — | — | 13.57% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.52% | ÷1.000 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.975 | 6.96% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.62% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.975 | 1.84% |
| Singles /BIP | 16.20% | ÷1.000 | ×0.820 | ×0.950 | ×0.975 | 12.30% |
| Doubles /BIP | 11.27% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | ×0.950 | ×0.975 | 7.51% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.11% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | ×0.950 | ×0.975 | 1.41% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.34% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.975 | 4.82% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 19.5 → −2.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .437 → .317; ISO .306 → .230; BABIP .307 → .217. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).