Kerry Carpenter — OGILVIE

Kerry CarpenterRF Detroit Tigers

Age 28 L/R 6'1" / 220 lbs MLB HR +5%H +3% Svc 3.331 · Ctrl thru 2028 peak 1.7 · 2027

wRC+†vL 44127vR 143

AVG/OBP/SLG.261 / .312 / .504

PA457

HR25

K%24

BB%5

MLB%100%

Scouting · now → future

HIT

50→50

PWR

60→60

SPD

50→50

EYE

42↘40

trajectory · 10 yrs

2.4peak

2026

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Arb-1

MLB Debut 2022

Service 3.331 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2028

First FA Year 2027

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	Arb-1	$3M	+1.4	$11M	+$8M
2027	Arb-2	$6M	+1.7	$14M	+$8M
2028	Arb-3	$7M	+1.4	$12M	+$4M
Totals		$17M		$37M	+$21M

Career Projections (MLE)

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2019	21	ROK	GCL Tigers West	191	168	39	11	2	7	14	26	5	6	0	.232	.310	.446	.757	.214	.230	14	7	.324	106	+1	+1	+0	-2	+5	0.6
2021	23	AA	Erie SeaWolves	461	426	96	22	1	13	19	118	9	5	6	.225	.273	.373	.646	.148	.275	26	4	.279	72	-15	-1	+0	-5	+13	-0.8
2022	24	AA	3 teams	513	473	120	25	1	33	27	145	10	3	10	.254	.308	.520	.828	.266	.292	28	5	.354	129	+17	-3	-1	-5	+15	2.2
2023	25	MLB	2 teams	499	455	124	18	2	22	35	129	8	6	0	.273	.335	.466	.801	.193	.334	26	7	.344	122	+12	+1	-5	-5	+14	1.8
2024	26	MLB	2 teams	311	281	77	16	5	18	23	81	4	0	2	.274	.338	.559	.896	.285	.319	26	7	.378	147	+17	-1	-0	-3	+9	2.1
2025	27	MLB	2 teams	480	452	106	17	4	26	19	111	7	1	1	.235	.276	.462	.739	.228	.252	23	4	.318	102	+1	-0	-4	-5	+14	0.6
▸ 2026 Season (actual · ROS · total)
2026	28	MLB	Detroit Tigers	79	66	14	1	0	5	9	29	2	0	0	.212	.325	.455	.779	.242	.265	37	11	.334	114	+1	+0	-4	-1	+2	-0.1
ROS	28	MLB	DET	378	345	87	13	3	21	24	99	6	2	1	.252	.312	.490	.802	.238	.293	26	6	.354	129	+12	+0	-4	-4	+11	1.6
TOT	28	MLB	DET	457	411	101	14	3	26	33	128	8	2	1	.246	.314	.484	.798	.238	.287	28	7	.351	127	+14	+0	-8	-5	+13	1.4
▸ 2027+ Projections — Projections at projected PA · Park-neutral MLB equivalent · Marcel + aging curve
2027	29	MLB	DET	446	407	104	16	4	25	29	91	7	1	0	.256	.316	.499	.815	.243	.265	20	7	.352	128	+14	+0	-6	-5	+13	1.7
2028	30	MLB	DET	435	397	100	15	4	24	28	90	7	1	0	.252	.312	.491	.804	.239	.264	21	6	.349	125	+12	+0	-6	-5	+12	1.4
2029	31	MLB	DET	420	383	94	14	3	23	27	89	7	0	0	.245	.307	.478	.785	.232	.263	21	6	.345	122	+11	+0	-7	-4	+12	1.1
2030	32	MLB	DET	401	366	89	13	3	22	26	87	6	0	0	.243	.304	.475	.779	.232	.261	22	6	.340	118	+8	+0	-7	-4	+11	0.8
2031	33	MLB	DET	371	338	81	12	3	19	24	83	6	0	0	.240	.302	.462	.763	.222	.259	22	6	.334	114	+6	+0	-8	-4	+11	0.5
2032	34	MLB	DET	326	297	70	10	3	16	21	76	5	0	0	.236	.297	.451	.748	.215	.257	23	6	.327	108	+3	+0	-8	-3	+9	0.1
2033	35	MLB	DET	274	251	57	8	2	13	17	66	4	0	0	.227	.287	.430	.717	.203	.255	24	6	.318	102	+0	+0	-8	-3	+8	-0.3
2034	36	MLB	DET	216	198	44	6	2	10	13	55	3	0	0	.222	.280	.424	.705	.202	.251	25	6	.308	94	-2	+0	-8	-2	+6	-0.6
2035	37	MLB	DET	155	143	30	4	1	7	9	41	2	0	0	.210	.266	.399	.665	.189	.247	26	6	.297	85	-3	+0	-8	-2	+4	-0.9
▸ Career Totals (MLE all levels + projections)
Career	—			5877	5380	1318	220	43	299	355	1387	96	25	20	.245	.303	.469	.772	.224	.273	24	6	.335	114	+96	-3	-80	-63	+167	11.9
/ 162G	—			650	595	146	24	5	33	39	153	11	3	2	.245	.304	.469	.773	.224	.274	24	6	.335	114	+11	-0	-9	-7	+18	1.3

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2019	21	ROK	GCL Tigers West	191	160	51	16	3	9	22	18	5	6	0	.319	.417	.625	1.042	.306	.307	9	12	.440	195	+20	+1	—	—	+5	2.8
2021	23	AA	Erie SeaWolves	461	416	109	24	1	15	29	94	9	5	6	.262	.324	.433	.756	.171	.299	20	6	.332	112	+6	-1	—	—	+13	1.8
2022	24	MLB	Detroit Tigers	113	103	26	4	1	6	6	32	3	0	0	.252	.312	.485	.798	.233	.303	28	5	.347	124	+3	+0	-1	-5	+3	-0.0
2022	24	AAA	Toledo Mud Hens	138	118	39	11	1	8	17	17	2	2	7	.331	.423	.644	1.067	.314	.330	12	12	.456	207	+17	-2	—	—	+4	1.9
2022	24	AA	Erie SeaWolves	262	240	73	16	0	22	16	72	5	1	3	.304	.360	.646	1.006	.342	.347	27	6	.431	188	+26	-1	—	—	+7	3.3
2023	25	MLB	Detroit Tigers	459	418	116	17	2	20	32	115	8	6	0	.278	.341	.471	.812	.194	.338	25	7	.359	133	+17	+1	-5	-5	+13	2.1
2023	25	AAA	Toledo Mud Hens	40	35	6	1	0	1	5	12	0	0	0	.171	.275	.286	.561	.114	.227	30	12	.262	59	-2	+0	—	—	+1	-0.1
2024	26	MLB	Detroit Tigers	296	264	75	16	5	18	22	75	4	0	2	.284	.345	.587	.932	.303	.328	25	7	.395	160	+20	-1	-0	-3	+8	2.5
2024	26	AAA	Toledo Mud Hens	15	14	3	1	0	0	1	5	0	0	0	.214	.267	.286	.552	.071	.333	33	7	.253	52	-1	+0	—	—	+0	-0.0
2025	27	MLB	Detroit Tigers	464	433	109	18	5	26	18	106	7	1	1	.252	.290	.497	.787	.245	.274	23	4	.339	118	+9	-0	-4	-5	+13	1.4
2025	27	AAA	Toledo Mud Hens	16	15	2	0	0	1	1	4	0	0	0	.133	.188	.333	.521	.200	.100	25	6	.230	34	-1	+0	—	—	+0	-0.1
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			1332	1218	326	55	13	70	78	328	22	7	3	.268	.322	.507	.828	.239	.310	25	6	.359	133	+49	+0	-9	-19	+38	6.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Kerry Carpenter (OGILVIE)	28	50	60	50	40	.253/.314/.496	.243	.266	26	2	20%	6%	129	+2.9	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
●Jake Fox 2010 · MLB	28	48→54	60→65	47→45	43	.259/.314/.481	.223	.292	28	6	23%	5%	124	+3.4	.237/.294/.421	.184	.272	22	4	22%	5%	100	+1.7	.230/.287/.412	.182	.254	23	0	20%	5%	93	+0.8
✕Hank Blalock 2010 · MLB	29	48→57	59→65	51→45	47	.257/.309/.476	.218	.278	27	5	19%	7%	120	+3.1	.250/.302/.418	.168	.289	21	8	21%	7%	102	+1.8	.265/.316/.368	.103	.321	12	9	20%	6%	91	+0.3
✕Matt Adams 2018 · MLB	29	48→57	60→65	44→40	46	.258/.311/.479	.220	.296	29	3	24%	7%	122	+3.3	.244/.302/.473	.229	.284	33	3	27%	7%	117	+2.9	.214/.267/.407	.193	.260	29	0	31%	6%	81	+0.3
✕Austin Meadows 2022 · MLB	27	47→56	61→65	45→55	52	.251/.329/.480	.229	.281	28	8	22%	10%	129	+3.7	.233/.312/.389	.156	.265	17	6	18%	9%	98	+1.6	.221/.313/.301	.080	.257	3	0	14%	10%	76	+0.0
✕Eddie Rosario 2021 · MLB	29	51→55	59→60	47→50	46	.271/.309/.476	.205	.278	29	7	16%	6%	121	+3.2	.242/.290/.416	.174	.267	22	9	19%	6%	96	+1.5	.233/.283/.395	.161	.268	20	8	21%	6%	84	+0.5
●Pedro Álvarez 2015 · MLB	28	43→47	62→65	47→45	48	.241/.311/.464	.224	.287	32	6	28%	9%	118	+3.0	.240/.308/.455	.215	.285	30	5	27%	9%	115	+2.7	.233/.295/.442	.208	.275	29	2	27%	8%	98	+1.3
●Cody Ross 2009 · MLB	28	50→52	60→65	49→45	48	.264/.328/.491	.227	.301	27	7	22%	8%	132	+4.0	.261/.319/.448	.187	.304	21	7	21%	7%	117	+2.9	.255/.317/.422	.167	.298	19	7	21%	7%	105	+1.9
●Pete Alonso 2023 · MLB	28	48→51	66→70	49→40	53	.267/.349/.518	.250	.281	35	5	20%	10%	147	+5.0	.248/.335/.498	.250	.268	34	4	22%	10%	137	+4.3	.240/.331/.488	.247	.264	34	2	24%	10%	126	+4.1
●Joc Pederson 2020 · MLB	28	43→52	64→65	40→55	53	.240/.325/.484	.244	.253	32	4	21%	10%	129	+3.7	.241/.321/.463	.222	.270	29	4	23%	9%	122	+3.3	.257/.362/.473	.216	.296	28	5	22%	12%	134	+3.0
✕Daryle Ward 2002 · MLB	27	48→56	61→60	47→30	47	.259/.312/.483	.225	.282	30	3	21%	7%	124	+3.4	.256/.307/.417	.161	.287	18	3	17%	7%	104	+2.0	.259/.324/.444	.185	.273	22	0	14%	8%	108	+1.2
●Hunter Renfroe 2020 · MLB	28	41→46	66→70	50→45	44	.237/.297/.487	.250	.272	35	5	28%	8%	119	+3.1	.235/.301/.474	.239	.265	33	5	26%	8%	117	+2.9	.241/.303/.447	.207	.272	27	1	23%	8%	106	+2.0
✕Jared Walsh 2022 · MLB	29	49→52	61→60	45→30	46	.257/.324/.483	.226	.313	29	3	27%	8%	128	+3.7	.214/.282/.380	.166	.290	21	4	32%	8%	84	+0.6	.175/.250/.311	.136	.252	18	2	37%	8%	49	-1.0
●Jesús Aguilar 2019 · MLB	29	46→50	60	46→40	48	.248/.316/.462	.214	.290	29	2	26%	8%	120	+3.1	.255/.334/.452	.197	.295	26	2	22%	10%	124	+3.4	.249/.330/.435	.185	.277	25	0	20%	10%	115	+1.7
●Evan Gattis 2015 · MLB	28	46→47	63→70	45→30	43	.253/.306/.487	.234	.279	31	3	23%	6%	123	+3.3	.247/.298/.465	.218	.273	29	2	22%	6%	113	+2.6	.246/.307/.473	.227	.265	32	1	21%	7%	113	+1.9
✕Randal Grichuk 2020 · MLB	28	43→51	61→70	47→45	41	.238/.288/.467	.229	.279	30	5	27%	6%	110	+2.4	.244/.289/.435	.191	.283	25	4	23%	6%	102	+1.8	.251/.306/.434	.183	.285	20	1	20%	6%	103	+1.2
✕Franmil Reyes 2022 · MLB	27	46→52	64→65	47→45	47	.253/.322/.491	.238	.310	34	4	30%	9%	130	+3.8	.226/.287/.398	.172	.303	23	4	32%	8%	91	+1.1	.205/.263/.346	.141	.279	19	2	33%	7%	65	-0.4
✕Justin Bour 2018 · MLB	30	51→55	61→60	47→40	54	.273/.346/.494	.221	.300	30	3	20%	10%	140	+4.5	.240/.335/.439	.199	.284	27	4	25%	12%	121	+3.2	.211/.318/.396	.185	.251	25	2	26%	13%	97	+0.9
●Jorge Soler 2020 · MLB	28	45→55	68→65	46→45	52	.253/.340/.519	.266	.293	37	4	27%	10%	144	+4.8	.239/.327/.475	.236	.282	32	3	27%	11%	128	+3.6	.234/.326/.453	.219	.273	29	1	26%	11%	119	+2.5
●Mark Trumbo 2014 · MLB	28	46→51	62→65	43→45	44	.251/.303/.475	.224	.288	31	6	25%	7%	118	+3.0	.248/.304/.458	.210	.292	29	4	25%	7%	114	+2.7	.250/.305/.462	.212	.289	30	1	25%	7%	111	+2.5
✕Izzy Alcantara 2001 · MLB	28	49	60	49→45	50	.262/.323/.474	.211	.277	29	9	18%	8%	125	+3.5	.252/.307/.418	.166	.302	21	10	23%	7%	104	+2.0	.243/.321/.431	.188	.276	25	4	22%	9%	111	+0.9

Contract

Career Projections (MLE) Show advanced cols

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Career Path Comps

Career Projections (MLE)