Kerry Carpenter — OGILVIE

Kerry CarpenterRF Detroit Tigers

Age 28 L/R 6'1" / 220 lbs MLB HR -8% Svc 3.331 · Ctrl thru 2028 ILInjured 10-Day (D10)

2026 ROS PROJECTION259 act + 6 ros · stats below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+†vL 99121vR 129

AVG/OBP/SLG.167 / .167 / .167

PA6

HR0

K%33

BB%5

BABIP281

ISO253

MLB%100%

Value2026 · WAR

2026 MLB RUNS · solid = so far · light = projected ROS (park-applied)

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$11M ctrl surplus

Tools · Splits · ContractCON 50 / POW 60

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2024-2026

CONTACT50

Whiff%

619.8%

xAVG

410.244

POWER60

Barrel%

8413.3

Avg EV

7490.7

Bat Spd

5972.3

EYE40

Chase%

6927.9%

SPEED50

Sprint

3726.9

Platoon Splits2024-2026 · 833 PA

vs LHP

vs RHP

Edge

738

—

wRC+

141

▶▶R

wOBA

247

376

▶▶R

ISO

158

285

▶▶R

BABIP

190

302

▶▶R

25.3%

24.7%

—

BB%

5.3%

5.8%

▶R

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Arb-1

MLB Debut 2022

Service 3.331 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2028

First FA Year 2029

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext	$0.3M	—	—	—
2027	Arb-2	$6M	+1.7	$13M	+$7M
2028	Arb-3	$8M	+1.5	$10M	+$4M
Totals		$15M		$23M	+$10M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2019	21	ROK	GCL Tigers West	—	191	160	51	16	3	9	22	18	5	6	0	319	417	625	1.042	306	307	9	12	440	184	+19	+1	—	—	+4	2.5
2021	23	AA	Erie SeaWolves	—	461	416	109	24	1	15	29	94	9	5	6	262	324	433	756	171	299	20	6	332	111	+6	-1	—	—	+10	1.5
2022	24	MLB	Detroit Tigers	—	113	103	26	4	1	6	6	32	3	0	0	252	312	485	798	233	303	28	5	347	121	+3	+0	-1	-5	+2	-0.1
2022	24	AAA	Toledo Mud Hens	—	138	118	39	11	1	8	17	17	2	2	7	331	423	644	1.067	314	330	12	12	456	195	+16	-2	—	—	+3	1.6
2022	24	AA	Erie SeaWolves	—	262	240	73	16	0	22	16	72	5	1	3	304	360	646	1.006	342	347	27	6	431	178	+24	-1	—	—	+6	2.9
2023	25	MLB	Detroit Tigers	—	459	418	116	17	2	20	32	115	8	6	0	278	341	471	812	194	338	25	7	359	129	+16	+1	-5	-5	+10	1.7
2023	25	AAA	Toledo Mud Hens	—	40	35	6	1	0	1	5	12	0	0	0	171	275	286	561	114	227	30	12	262	63	-2	+0	—	—	+1	-0.1
2024	26	MLB	Detroit Tigers	—	296	264	75	16	5	18	22	75	4	0	2	284	345	587	932	303	328	25	7	395	154	+19	-1	-0	-3	+6	2.1
2024	26	AAA	Toledo Mud Hens	—	15	14	3	1	0	0	1	5	0	0	0	214	267	286	552	71	333	33	7	253	57	-1	+0	—	—	+0	-0.0
2025	27	MLB	Detroit Tigers	—	464	433	109	18	5	26	18	106	7	1	1	252	290	497	787	245	274	23	4	339	116	+9	-0	-4	-5	+10	1.0
2025	27	AAA	Toledo Mud Hens	—	16	15	2	0	0	1	1	4	0	0	0	133	188	333	521	200	100	25	6	230	42	-1	+0	—	—	+0	-0.1
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	1332	1218	326	55	13	70	78	328	22	7	3	268	322	507	828	239	310	25	6	359	129	+46	+0	-9	-19	+29	4.7
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2019	21	ROK MLE	GCL Tigers West	—	191	168	39	11	2	7	14	26	5	6	0	232	310	446	757	214	223	14	7	324	105	+1	+1	—	—	+4	0.7
2021	23	AA MLE	Erie SeaWolves	—	461	426	96	22	1	11	19	112	9	5	6	225	273	359	632	134	266	24	4	275	72	-15	-1	—	—	+10	-0.7
2022	24	MLB MLE	Detroit Tigers	—	113	103	26	4	1	6	6	32	3	0	0	252	312	485	798	233	303	28	5	351	123	+3	+0	-1	-5	+2	-0.1
2022	24	AAA MLE	Toledo Mud Hens	—	138	123	33	9	1	6	12	20	2	2	7	268	343	504	847	236	275	14	9	356	127	+4	-2	—	—	+3	0.5
2022	24	AA MLE	Erie SeaWolves	—	262	247	60	12	0	18	9	88	5	1	3	243	284	510	794	267	292	34	3	334	112	+4	-1	—	—	+6	0.9
2023	25	MLB MLE	Detroit Tigers	—	459	418	119	18	2	21	32	115	8	6	0	285	347	488	835	203	338	25	7	357	128	+15	+1	-5	-5	+10	1.7
2023	25	AAA MLE	Toledo Mud Hens	—	40	37	6	1	0	1	3	14	0	0	0	162	225	270	495	108	206	35	8	200	22	-4	+0	—	—	+1	-0.3
2024	26	MLB MLE	Detroit Tigers	—	296	267	76	16	5	19	22	75	4	0	2	285	348	596	944	311	328	25	7	397	155	+19	-1	-0	-3	+6	2.2
2024	26	AAA MLE	Toledo Mud Hens	—	15	14	3	1	0	0	1	6	0	0	0	214	267	286	552	71	273	40	7	185	11	-2	+0	—	—	+0	-0.1
2025	27	MLB MLE	Detroit Tigers	—	464	437	112	19	5	27	18	106	7	1	1	256	297	508	805	252	274	23	4	343	118	+10	-0	-4	-5	+10	1.1
2025	27	AAA MLE	Toledo Mud Hens	—	16	15	2	0	0	1	1	4	0	0	0	133	188	333	521	200	92	25	6	180	8	-2	+0	—	—	+0	-0.1
2019	21	ROK MLE	GCL Tigers West	—	191	168	39	11	2	7	14	26	5	6	0	232	310	446	757	214	230	14	7	324	105	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	21	ROK RAW	GCL Tigers West	—	191	160	51	16	3	9	22	18	5	6	0	319	417	625	1.042	306	307	9	12	440	105	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	23	AA MLE	Erie SeaWolves	—	461	426	96	22	1	11	19	112	9	5	6	225	273	359	632	134	274	24	4	275	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	23	AA RAW	Erie SeaWolves	—	461	416	109	24	1	15	29	94	9	5	6	262	324	433	756	171	299	20	6	332	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	24	AA MLE	3 teams	—	513	473	120	26	2	30	27	141	10	3	10	254	308	507	815	254	295	27	5	344	119	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	24	AA RAW	3 teams	—	513	461	138	31	2	36	39	121	10	3	10	299	367	610	976	310	332	24	8	419	119	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	25	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	499	455	124	18	2	22	35	129	8	6	0	273	335	466	801	193	334	26	7	345	119	+12	+1	-5	-5	+11	1.4
2023	25	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	499	453	122	18	2	21	37	127	8	6	0	269	335	457	792	188	330	25	7	351	119	+12	+1	-5	-5	+11	1.4
2024	26	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	311	281	79	17	5	19	23	81	4	0	2	281	344	580	924	299	326	26	7	387	148	+18	-1	-0	-3	+7	2.0
2024	26	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	311	278	78	17	5	18	23	80	4	0	2	281	341	572	913	291	328	26	7	388	148	+18	-1	-0	-3	+7	2.0
2025	27	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	480	452	114	19	5	28	19	110	7	1	1	252	293	502	795	250	272	23	4	338	115	+8	-0	-4	-5	+10	1.0
2025	27	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	480	448	111	18	5	27	19	110	7	1	1	248	287	491	778	243	268	23	4	335	115	+8	-0	-4	-5	+10	1.0
2019	21	ROK MLE	GCL Tigers West	—	191	170	39	11	2	7	14	26	5	6	0	229	310	441	751	212	223	14	7	324	105	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	23	AA MLE	Erie SeaWolves	—	461	430	96	22	1	11	19	112	9	5	6	223	273	356	629	133	266	24	4	275	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	24	AA MLE	3 teams	—	513	471	120	26	2	30	27	141	10	3	10	255	308	510	817	255	290	27	5	344	119	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	25	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	499	453	124	18	2	22	35	129	8	6	0	274	335	468	803	194	327	26	7	345	119	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	26	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	311	281	79	17	5	19	23	81	4	0	2	281	344	580	924	299	325	26	7	387	148	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	27	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	480	451	114	19	5	28	19	110	7	1	1	253	293	503	796	251	268	23	4	338	115	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	25	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	499	453	124	18	2	22	35	129	8	6	0	274	335	468	803	194	327	26	7	345	119	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	26	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	311	281	79	17	5	19	23	81	4	0	2	281	344	580	924	299	325	26	7	387	148	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	27	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	480	451	114	19	5	28	19	110	7	1	1	253	293	503	796	251	268	23	4	338	115	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	28	MLB MLE	DET	—	259	233	49	5	2	14	18	75	5	0	0	210	281	429	710	219	238	29	7	305	93	-2	+0	-4	-3	+6	-0.3
▸ 2026 season
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
SO FAR	28	MLB RAW	DET	—	259	231	48	5	2	13	18	75	5	0	0	208	277	416	693	208	240	29	7	302	93	-2	+0	-4	-3	+6	-0.3
YTD	28	MLB RAW	DET	—	259	231	48	5	2	13	18	75	5	0	0	208	277	416	693	208	240	29	7	302	91	-3	+0	-4	-3	+6	-0.4
ROS	28	MLB MLE	DET	100%	6	6	1	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	167	167	167	333		286	33	0	347	121	+0	+0	-0	-0	+0	0.0
ROS	28	MLB CTX	DET	100%	6	6	1	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	167	167	167	333		281	33	0	328	121	+0	+0	-0	-0	+0	0.0
FULL	28	MLB A+C	DET	—	265	237	49	5	2	13	18	77	5	0	0	207	275	409	684	203	240	29	7	303	93	-2	+0	-4	-3	+6	-0.3
TOT	28	MLB MLE	DET	—	265	239	50	5	2	14	18	77	5	0	0	209	279	423	701	213	238	29	7	306	93	-2	+0	-4	-3	+6	-0.3
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	29	MLB MLE	DET	100%	446	410	108	17	4	25	26	117	7	1	0	263	318	507	826	244	308	26	6	360	130	+16	+0	-4	-5	+10	1.7
2028	30	MLB MLE	DET	100%	435	399	105	17	4	24	26	115	7	1	0	263	319	506	826	243	306	26	6	356	127	+14	+0	-4	-5	+9	1.5
2029	31	MLB MLE	DET	100%	420	385	100	16	4	23	25	113	7	1	0	260	317	501	818	242	303	27	6	351	124	+12	+0	-5	-4	+9	1.2
2030	32	MLB MLE	DET	100%	401	368	92	14	3	21	24	109	6	1	0	250	307	476	782	226	298	27	6	345	119	+9	+0	-6	-4	+9	0.8
2031	33	MLB MLE	DET	100%	371	340	83	12	3	19	22	103	6	1	0	244	302	465	766	221	292	28	6	336	114	+6	+0	-6	-4	+8	0.4
2032	34	MLB MLE	DET	100%	326	299	71	10	3	16	19	92	5	0	0	237	294	452	746	214	284	28	6	325	106	+2	+0	-7	-3	+7	-0.1
2027	29	MLB CTX	DET	100%	446	410	106	17	4	24	26	117	7	1	0	259	314	495	809	237	303	26	6	340	130	+16	+0	-4	-5	+10	1.7
2028	30	MLB CTX	DET	100%	435	399	102	16	4	23	26	115	7	1	0	256	312	489	801	233	301	26	6	337	127	+14	+0	-4	-5	+9	1.5
2029	31	MLB CTX	DET	100%	420	385	98	15	4	22	25	113	7	1	0	255	312	486	797	231	297	27	6	332	124	+12	+0	-5	-4	+9	1.2
2030	32	MLB CTX	DET	100%	401	368	91	14	4	20	24	109	6	1	0	247	304	470	774	223	293	27	6	326	119	+9	+0	-6	-4	+9	0.8
2031	33	MLB CTX	DET	100%	371	340	82	12	3	18	22	103	6	1	0	241	299	453	752	212	287	28	6	317	114	+6	+0	-6	-4	+8	0.4
2032	34	MLB CTX	DET	100%	326	299	71	10	3	16	19	92	5	0	0	237	294	452	746	214	279	28	6	307	106	+2	+0	-7	-3	+7	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	3737	3425	877	139	35	193	220	979	60	12	3	256	312	486	798	230	301	26	6	339	116	+106	+1	-41	-45	+81	10.4
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	596	153	24	6	34	38	170	10	2	1	257	311	488	799	232	301	26	6	339	116	+18	+0	-7	-8	+14	1.8
Career	—	MLE		—	4860	4462	1132	199	38	245	279	1250	81	26	19	254	309	480	789	226	296	26	6	340	116	+106	+1	-41	-45	+81	10.4
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	597	152	27	5	33	37	167	11	3	3	255	310	482	792	228	297	26	6	340	116	+18	+0	-7	-8	+14	1.8

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Jay Brucelast yr '20 career totals — 13 seasons, 6,603 PA	9.9	6,603	318	65	245	314	469	-71	-54	19.6	19.5
/162	664	32	7	-7.1	-5.4	2.0	pk7: 19
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 12 projected seasons	6.7	4,424	236	14	257	310	493	-47	-40	18.8	16.9
/162	664	35	2	-7.1	-6.0	2.8	pk7: 15
#2Luke Scottlast yr '13 career totals — 9 seasons, 3,193 PA	4.8	3,193	135	17	258	340	481	-40	-13	14.7	15.0
/162	664	28	4	-8.4	-2.7	3.1	pk7: 15
#3Khris Davislast yr '21 career totals — 9 seasons, 3,804 PA	5.7	3,804	221	18	242	314	491	-40	-39	13.3	13.4
/162	664	39	3	-7.0	-6.9	2.3	pk7: 13
#4Corey Hartlast yr '15 career totals — 10 seasons, 4,113 PA	6.2	4,113	162	85	271	329	478	-48	-61	12.6	13.1
/162	664	26	14	-7.8	-9.9	2.0	pk7: 14
#5Ryan Ludwicklast yr '14 career totals — 11 seasons, 3,938 PA	5.9	3,938	150	17	261	330	451	-42	-34	11.9	12.8
/162	664	25	3	-7.0	-5.8	2.0	pk7: 14
#6Jay Gibbonslast yr '11 career totals — 9 seasons, 3,177 PA	4.8	3,177	127	2	260	315	453	-30	-30	7.7	8.1
/162	664	27	0	-6.3	-6.3	1.6	pk7: 9

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Kerry Carpenter (OGILVIE)	28	50	60	50	40	249/306/489	240	286	25	1	26%	6%	121	+2.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Randal Grichuk 2020 · MLB	28	43→50	62→70	46→45	42	238/288/470	232	276	30	4	27%	6%	109	+2.0	246/290/439	193	283	26	3	23%	5%	103	+1.5	264/311/490	226	295	26	0	20%	6%	119	+1.2
●Jared Walsh 2021 · MLB	28	44→54	61→60	46→30	44	239/307/466	227	300	30	3	31%	8%	115	+2.4	240/304/434	194	309	25	3	29%	8%	106	+1.8	223/293/402	179	295	23	2	31%	8%	90	+0.5
●Hunter Renfroe 2020 · MLB	28	40→47	65	50→45	45	233/296/479	246	269	34	6	28%	8%	114	+2.4	236/301/474	238	266	33	5	25%	8%	115	+2.4	243/306/456	213	274	28	1	23%	8%	110	+1.9
●Jesús Aguilar 2019 · MLB	29	47→50	61→60	46→40	49	253/324/473	221	297	30	2	26%	9%	123	+3.0	256/336/452	196	295	26	2	22%	10%	122	+2.9	254/334/438	184	284	24	0	20%	10%	115	+1.5
✕Matt Adams 2018 · MLB	29	48→57	61→65	43→40	46	260/313/484	224	297	29	3	24%	7%	122	+2.9	245/302/480	235	285	34	3	27%	7%	117	+2.6	215/267/410	195	261	30	0	31%	6%	84	+0.1
✕Eddie Rosario 2020 · MLB	28	53→56	59→60	45→50	45	279/311/486	208	291	28	6	16%	5%	122	+2.9	252/297/438	186	269	24	9	17%	6%	105	+1.7	239/289/406	166	276	20	8	21%	6%	92	+0.5
●Cody Ross 2009 · MLB	28	50→56	60→65	50→45	47	265/328/494	228	303	27	7	22%	8%	129	+3.4	267/324/454	187	312	21	8	21%	7%	118	+2.7	264/326/439	175	309	20	7	21%	7%	111	+1.9
●Evan Gattis 2015 · MLB	28	47→48	64→70	45→30	43	258/310/497	239	284	33	2	23%	6%	124	+3.1	253/304/480	227	277	31	2	21%	6%	118	+2.6	251/303/479	229	269	31	1	20%	6%	113	+1.8
✕Bryan LaHair 2012 · MLB	29	48→55	60→65	43→40	43	256/306/474	219	308	29	3	27%	7%	117	+2.6	243/305/421	178	320	22	6	30%	8%	103	+1.6	218/287/349	131	296	15	3	30%	9%	76	-0.3
✕Daryle Ward 2002 · MLB	27	48→56	61→60	47→30	47	259/312/481	223	283	30	3	21%	7%	120	+2.8	255/306/412	157	285	18	3	17%	7%	101	+1.4	259/324/444	185	273	22	0	14%	8%	107	+0.9
●Chris Davis 2015 · MLB	29	42→52	64→65	43→40	49	234/323/472	238	290	33	4	31%	10%	122	+3.0	228/329/460	232	295	32	3	32%	12%	122	+2.9	223/328/452	229	292	32	1	33%	13%	115	+2.5
●Carlos González 2016 · MLB	30	46→56	62→65	52→55	48	252/310/477	225	280	31	8	23%	8%	118	+2.7	261/322/442	181	308	21	4	22%	8%	114	+2.4	262/325/429	167	315	18	4	22%	8%	108	+1.8
●Marcus Thames 2006 · MLB	29	46	61→70	46→40	48	250/318/471	221	288	29	5	24%	8%	120	+2.8	251/311/508	257	281	36	4	25%	8%	126	+3.2	245/304/521	275	264	41	2	25%	7%	125	+1.8
✕Austin Meadows 2022 · MLB	27	45→55	60→65	45→55	53	243/324/468	225	272	27	7	22%	10%	121	+2.9	235/312/386	151	267	16	6	18%	9%	98	+1.2	225/316/299	74	262	2	0	14%	10%	78	-0.1
●C.J. Cron 2019 · MLB	29	47→52	59→65	41→40	44	251/316/463	211	290	28	4	24%	6%	118	+2.6	253/327/476	223	288	29	3	23%	8%	124	+3.1	250/323/455	205	288	27	0	23%	8%	114	+2.2
●Adam Lind 2011 · MLB	28	51→60	57→60	45→40	48	266/320/470	204	299	24	2	20%	7%	120	+2.8	262/318/450	188	295	25	2	20%	7%	115	+2.4	288/362/471	183	329	20	0	18%	10%	127	+2.6
●Geoff Jenkins 2002 · MLB	28	53→58	62→65	50→45	45	278/343/514	236	332	30	9	25%	7%	139	+4.2	271/342/489	218	319	26	4	23%	8%	133	+3.7	280/357/501	221	329	26	1	22%	9%	132	+3.8
●Mark Trumbo 2014 · MLB	28	45→53	60→65	43→45	45	248/301/464	216	288	30	6	26%	7%	112	+2.2	247/303/452	205	292	28	4	25%	7%	110	+2.1	248/305/461	213	286	30	2	25%	7%	110	+1.8
✕Colby Rasmus 2016 · MLB	29	45→55	61→65	47→50	45	241/309/464	223	310	29	4	32%	9%	115	+2.4	226/294/417	191	293	26	6	31%	9%	99	+1.2	209/278/383	174	267	25	4	31%	9%	82	+0.0
●Pedro Álvarez 2014 · MLB	27	43→47	63→65	48→45	46	239/307/468	228	294	32	3	30%	9%	116	+2.5	244/316/466	222	290	31	6	27%	9%	118	+2.7	240/318/459	219	279	31	5	26%	10%	110	+1.5

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps