Jared Walsh

Pos1B

B/TL/L

Born1993-07-30

Age (2027)34

No MLB projection yet. Career stats below are historical.

Overview

AAALAST SEASON 2024

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2022	29	MLBLAA	454	.215/.269/.374	15	2	76	-1.7
2023	30	AAALAA	225	.217/.360/.375	9	0	48	—	.157/.262/.259
2023	30	MLBLAA	116	.125/.216/.279	4	0	40	-1.5
2024	31	AAACWS	149	.185/.289/.415	8	1	28	—	.132/.208/.279
2024	31	MLBTEX	60	.226/.317/.321	1	0	83	-0.5
2025	32	No MLB games played
2026	33	No MLB games played

Last 3 seasons WAR -3.6

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2022-2024

Bat Spd84

Barrel%55

Avg EV46

Speed33

xwOBA22

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2015	22	ROK	Orem Owlz	—	139	120	39	12	4	2	12	19	2	0	0	325	396	542	937	217	359	14	9	395	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	23	A	Burlington Bees	—	430	393	114	30	1	7	31	81	2	2	0	290	345	425	770	135	350	19	7	341	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	24	AA	Mobile BayBears	—	74	69	16	3	0	3	3	29	1	1	0	232	274	406	680	174	351	39	4	297	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	24	A+	Inland Empire 66ers	—	306	275	91	29	1	8	26	72	4	1	0	331	397	531	928	200	423	24	8	407	107	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	25	AAA	Salt Lake Bees	—	198	178	48	13	0	8	16	56	2	0	0	270	337	478	814	208	345	28	8	356	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	25	AA	Mobile BayBears	—	173	149	43	13	0	8	21	48	2	1	0	289	384	537	921	248	372	28	12	401	106	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	25	A+	Inland Empire 66ers	—	178	149	41	8	1	13	24	50	0	0	1	275	376	604	980	329	308	28	13	409	112	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	26	MLB	Los Angeles Angels	—	87	79	16	5	1	1	6	35	2	0	0	203	276	329	605	127	349	40	7	275	69	-3	+0	+0	-10	+2	-1.1
2019	26	AAA	Salt Lake Bees	—	454	382	124	30	0	36	59	115	9	0	0	325	427	686	1.113	361	374	25	13	471	122	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	27	MLB	Los Angeles Angels	—	108	99	29	4	2	9	5	15	1	0	0	293	333	646	980	354	256	14	5	407	161	+8	+0	-2	-2	+2	0.7
2021	28	MLB	Los Angeles Angels	—	585	530	147	34	1	29	48	152	4	2	1	277	342	509	851	232	335	26	8	371	133	+23	+0	-10	-10	+13	1.6
2022	29	MLB	Los Angeles Angels	—	454	423	91	18	2	15	27	138	4	2	1	215	269	374	642	158	281	30	6	286	76	-13	+0	-6	-8	+10	-1.7
2023	30	MLB	Los Angeles Angels	—	116	104	13	4	0	4	11	45	1	0	0	125	216	279	494	154	164	39	9	228	40	-8	+0	-3	-6	+3	-1.5
2023	30	AAA	Salt Lake Bees	—	225	184	40	2	0	9	38	78	3	0	2	217	360	375	735	158	320	35	17	339	48	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	31	MLB	Texas Rangers	—	60	53	12	2	0	1	7	21	0	0	0	226	317	321	637	94	355	35	12	295	83	-1	+0	-1	-4	+1	-0.5
2024	31	AAA	Charlotte Knights	—	149	130	24	4	1	8	18	55	1	1	0	185	289	415	704	231	239	37	12	313	28	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	1410	1288	308	67	6	59	104	406	12	4	2	239	302	438	740	199	300	29	7	326	107	+11	+0	-21	-40	+31	-2.0
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2015	22	ROK MLE	Orem Owlz	—	139	125	30	8	3	2	7	27	2	0	0	240	291	400	691	160	266	19	5	287	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	23	A MLE	Burlington Bees	—	430	404	93	23	1	4	20	117	2	2	0	230	270	322	592	92	311	27	5	259	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	24	AA MLE	Mobile BayBears	—	74	70	12	2	0	2	2	35	1	1	0	171	205	286	491	114	307	47	3	224	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	24	A+ MLE	Inland Empire 66ers	—	306	283	78	24	1	7	18	99	4	1	0	276	328	442	770	166	394	32	6	327	107	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	25	AAA MLE	Salt Lake Bees	—	198	183	36	9	0	6	11	72	2	0	0	197	250	344	594	148	275	36	6	261	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	25	AA MLE	Mobile BayBears	—	173	157	39	12	0	7	13	58	2	1	0	248	314	459	773	210	334	34	8	325	106	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	25	A+ MLE	Inland Empire 66ers	—	178	158	35	6	1	12	15	64	0	0	1	222	289	500	789	278	248	36	8	333	112	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	26	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Angels	—	87	80	16	5	1	1	5	35	2	0	0	200	264	325	589	125	349	40	6	270	69	-3	+0	+0	-10	+2	-1.1
2019	26	AAA MLE	Salt Lake Bees	—	454	397	95	21	0	26	44	147	9	0	0	239	329	489	818	249	296	32	10	348	122	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	27	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Angels	—	108	99	29	4	2	9	5	15	1	0	0	293	333	646	980	354	256	14	5	406	161	+8	+0	-2	-2	+2	0.7
2021	28	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Angels	—	585	536	147	35	1	28	42	152	4	2	1	274	332	500	832	226	335	26	7	365	133	+23	+0	-10	-10	+13	1.6
2022	29	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Angels	—	454	427	92	19	2	15	23	138	4	2	1	215	262	375	637	159	281	30	5	281	76	-13	+0	-6	-8	+10	-1.7
2023	30	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Angels	—	116	104	13	4	0	4	11	45	1	0	0	125	216	279	494	154	164	39	9	228	40	-8	+0	-3	-6	+3	-1.5
2023	30	AAA MLE	Salt Lake Bees	—	225	197	31	2	0	6	25	93	3	0	2	157	262	259	521	102	252	41	11	239	48	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	31	MLB MLE	Texas Rangers	—	60	53	12	2	0	1	7	21	0	0	0	226	317	321	637	94	355	35	12	291	83	-1	+0	-1	-4	+1	-0.5
2024	31	AAA MLE	Charlotte Knights	—	149	136	18	3	1	5	12	67	1	1	0	132	208	279	487	147	191	45	8	209	28	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	22	ROK MLE	Orem Owlz	—	139	125	30	8	3	2	7	27	2	0	0	240	291	400	691	160	280	19	5	287	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	22	ROK RAW	Orem Owlz	—	139	120	39	12	4	2	12	19	2	0	0	325	396	542	937	217	359	14	9	395	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	23	A MLE	Burlington Bees	—	430	404	93	23	1	4	20	117	2	2	0	230	270	322	592	92	313	27	5	259	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	23	A RAW	Burlington Bees	—	430	393	114	30	1	7	31	81	2	2	0	290	345	425	770	135	350	19	7	341	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	24	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	380	353	90	26	1	9	20	134	5	2	0	255	304	411	715	156	384	35	5	307	94	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	24	A+ RAW	2 teams	—	380	344	107	32	1	11	29	101	5	2	0	311	373	506	879	195	412	27	8	386	94	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	25	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	549	498	109	26	1	25	39	194	4	1	1	219	281	426	707	207	293	35	7	305	92	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	25	AAA RAW	3 teams	—	549	476	132	34	1	29	61	154	4	1	1	277	364	536	900	258	342	28	11	387	92	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	26	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	541	477	111	26	1	27	49	182	11	0	0	233	318	461	780	229	309	34	9	335	113	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	26	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	541	461	140	35	1	37	65	150	11	0	0	304	402	625	1.027	321	371	28	12	439	113	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	27	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Angels	—	108	99	29	4	2	9	5	15	1	0	0	293	333	646	980	354	256	14	5	406	161	+8	+0	-2	-2	+2	0.7
2020	27	MLB RAW	Los Angeles Angels	—	108	99	29	4	2	9	5	15	1	0	0	293	333	646	980	354	256	14	5	407	161	+8	+0	-2	-2	+2	0.7
2021	28	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Angels	—	585	536	147	35	1	28	42	152	4	2	1	274	332	500	832	226	331	26	7	365	133	+23	+0	-10	-10	+13	1.6
2021	28	MLB RAW	Los Angeles Angels	—	585	530	147	34	1	29	48	152	4	2	1	277	342	509	851	232	335	26	8	371	133	+23	+0	-10	-10	+13	1.6
2022	29	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Angels	—	454	427	92	19	2	15	23	138	4	2	1	215	262	375	637	159	281	30	5	281	76	-13	+0	-6	-8	+10	-1.7
2022	29	MLB RAW	Los Angeles Angels	—	454	423	91	18	2	15	27	138	4	2	1	215	269	374	642	158	281	30	6	286	76	-13	+0	-6	-8	+10	-1.7
2023	30	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	341	301	44	6	0	10	36	138	4	0	2	146	246	266	512	120	222	40	11	235	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	30	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	341	288	53	6	0	13	49	123	4	0	2	184	311	340	651	156	263	36	14	301	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	31	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	209	189	30	5	1	6	19	88	1	1	0	159	239	291	530	132	253	42	9	233	44	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	31	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	209	183	36	6	1	9	25	76	1	1	0	197	297	388	685	191	276	36	12	308	44	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	22	ROK MLE	Orem Owlz	—	139	129	30	8	3	2	7	27	2	0	0	233	291	388	679	155	266	19	5	287	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	23	A MLE	Burlington Bees	—	430	405	93	23	1	4	20	117	2	2	0	230	270	321	591	91	311	27	5	259	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	24	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	380	352	90	26	1	9	20	134	5	2	0	256	304	412	716	156	377	35	5	307	94	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	25	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	549	501	109	26	1	25	39	194	4	1	1	218	281	423	704	206	285	35	7	305	92	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	26	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	541	476	111	26	1	27	49	182	11	0	0	233	318	462	781	229	304	34	9	335	113	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	27	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Angels	—	108	101	29	4	2	9	5	15	1	0	0	287	333	634	967	347	256	14	5	406	161	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	28	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Angels	—	585	534	147	35	1	28	42	152	4	2	1	275	332	502	833	227	335	26	7	365	133	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	29	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Angels	—	454	424	92	19	2	15	23	138	4	2	1	217	262	377	639	160	281	30	5	281	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	30	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	341	298	44	6	0	10	36	138	4	0	2	148	246	268	515	121	222	40	11	235	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	31	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	209	187	30	5	1	6	19	88	1	1	0	160	239	294	533	134	238	42	9	233	44	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	31	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	209	187	30	5	1	6	19	88	1	1	0	160	239	294	533	134	238	42	9	233	44	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	1410	1288	308	67	6	59	104	406	12	4	2	239	302	438	740	199	300	29	7	326	91	+11	+0	-21	-40	+31	-2.0
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	594	142	31	3	27	48	187	6	2	1	239	303	438	741	199	300	29	7	326	91	+5	+0	-10	-18	+14	-0.9
Career	—	MLE		—	3736	3409	775	178	13	135	260	1185	38	10	5	227	289	406	695	179	303	32	7	303	91	+11	+0	-21	-40	+31	-2.0
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	593	134	31	2	23	45	206	7	2	1	226	288	401	690	175	302	32	7	303	91	+5	+0	-10	-18	+14	-0.9

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2024 AAACharlotte Knights · 149 PAwOBA .305 → .209 (−96)K% 36.9% → 44.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	36.91%	÷0.991	×1.200	—	—	44.70%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	12.08%	÷1.025	×0.690	—	×0.962	7.82%
HBP% /PA	0.67%	—	×0.940	—	×0.962	0.61%
Singles /BIP	14.67%	÷1.033	×0.930	×0.978	×0.962	12.42%
Doubles /BIP	5.33%	÷0.994	×0.830	×0.978	×0.962	4.19%
Triples /BIP	1.33%	÷1.049	×0.970	×0.978	×0.962	1.16%
Home runs /BIP	10.67%	÷1.016	×0.700	—	×0.962	7.07%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 103, 1B 107, 2B 99, 3B 110, K 98, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 31 vs a level average of 27.2 → −3.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.978.

Result: wOBA .305 → .209; ISO .231 → .149; BABIP .239 → .191. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAASalt Lake Bees · 225 PAwOBA .329 → .239 (−90)K% 34.7% → 41.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	34.67%	÷1.010	×1.200	—	—	41.20%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	16.44%	÷1.005	×0.690	—	×0.972	10.98%
HBP% /PA	1.33%	—	×0.940	—	×0.972	1.22%
Singles /BIP	27.36%	÷1.058	×0.930	×0.950	×0.972	22.22%
Doubles /BIP	1.89%	÷0.967	×0.830	×0.950	×0.972	1.50%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.900	×0.970	×0.950	×0.972	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	8.49%	÷1.003	×0.700	—	×0.972	5.76%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 101, 1B 112, 2B 93, 3B 80, K 102, BB 101 — applied at half strength. Age: age 30 vs a level average of 27.2 → −2.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .329 → .239; ISO .158 → .107; BABIP .320 → .252. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AAASalt Lake Bees · 454 PAwOBA .462 → .348 (−114)K% 25.3% → 32.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	25.33%	÷1.009	×1.290	—	—	32.39%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	13.00%	÷0.980	×0.710	—	×1.018	9.59%
HBP% /PA	1.98%	—	×0.980	—	×1.018	1.98%
Singles /BIP	21.72%	÷1.007	×0.900	×0.950	×1.018	18.78%
Doubles /BIP	11.24%	÷1.062	×0.810	×0.950	×1.018	8.29%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.900	×0.810	×0.950	×1.018	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	13.48%	÷1.059	×0.780	—	×1.018	10.11%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 112, 1B 101, 2B 112, 3B 80, K 102, BB 96 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .462 → .348; ISO .361 → .257; BABIP .374 → .296. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 AAASalt Lake Bees · 198 PAwOBA .349 → .261 (−88)K% 28.3% → 36.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	28.28%	÷1.003	×1.290	—	—	36.38%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	8.08%	÷1.068	×0.710	—	×1.033	5.55%
HBP% /PA	1.01%	—	×0.980	—	×1.033	1.02%
Singles /BIP	22.13%	÷1.064	×0.900	×0.950	×1.033	18.36%
Doubles /BIP	10.66%	÷1.045	×0.810	×0.950	×1.033	8.10%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.969	×0.810	×0.950	×1.033	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	6.56%	÷0.958	×0.780	—	×1.033	5.52%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 92, 1B 113, 2B 109, 3B 94, K 101, BB 114 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .349 → .261; ISO .208 → .156; BABIP .345 → .275. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 A+Inland Empire 66ers · 178 PAwOBA .406 → .333 (−73)K% 28.1% → 36.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	28.09%	÷1.044	×1.340	—	—	36.07%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	12.36%	÷0.986	×0.710	—	×0.978	8.71%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.790	—	×0.978	0.00%
Singles /BIP	19.19%	÷0.977	×0.910	×0.953	×0.978	16.67%
Doubles /BIP	8.08%	÷1.087	×0.820	×0.953	×0.978	5.68%
Triples /BIP	1.01%	÷0.978	×0.760	×0.953	×0.978	0.73%
Home runs /BIP	13.13%	÷0.978	×0.920	—	×0.978	12.08%

Factors used: league row CAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 96, 1B 95, 2B 117, 3B 96, K 109, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 22.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.953.

Result: wOBA .406 → .333; ISO .329 → .286; BABIP .308 → .248. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 AAMobile BayBears · 173 PAwOBA .391 → .325 (−66)K% 27.7% → 33.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	27.75%	÷1.012	×1.220	—	—	33.45%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	11.56%	÷1.040	×0.680	—	×0.998	7.54%
HBP% /PA	1.16%	—	×0.840	—	×0.998	0.97%
Singles /BIP	21.78%	÷1.021	×0.920	×1.013	×0.998	19.84%
Doubles /BIP	12.87%	÷1.014	×0.910	×1.013	×0.998	11.68%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.944	×0.880	×1.013	×0.998	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	7.92%	÷0.959	×0.800	—	×0.998	6.59%

Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 92, 1B 104, 2B 103, 3B 89, K 102, BB 108 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.013.

Result: wOBA .391 → .325; ISO .248 → .212; BABIP .372 → .334. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 A+Inland Empire 66ers · 306 PAwOBA .397 → .327 (−70)K% 23.5% → 32.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	23.53%	÷0.975	×1.340	—	—	32.34%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	8.50%	÷1.003	×0.710	—	×0.988	5.94%
HBP% /PA	1.31%	—	×0.790	—	×0.988	1.02%
Singles /BIP	26.11%	÷0.955	×0.910	×1.008	×0.988	24.78%
Doubles /BIP	14.29%	÷0.891	×0.820	×1.008	×0.988	13.10%
Triples /BIP	0.49%	÷1.150	×0.760	×1.008	×0.988	0.32%
Home runs /BIP	3.94%	÷1.008	×0.920	—	×0.988	3.55%

Factors used: league row CAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 102, 1B 91, 2B 78, 3B 130, K 95, BB 101 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.008.

Result: wOBA .397 → .327; ISO .200 → .165; BABIP .423 → .394. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 AAMobile BayBears · 74 PAwOBA .288 → .224 (−64)K% 39.2% → 47.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	39.19%	÷0.998	×1.220	—	—	47.89%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	4.05%	÷0.986	×0.680	—	×1.012	2.83%
HBP% /PA	1.35%	—	×0.840	—	×1.012	1.15%
Singles /BIP	25.00%	÷1.018	×0.920	—	×1.012	22.86%
Doubles /BIP	7.50%	÷1.204	×0.910	—	×1.012	5.73%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.930	×0.880	—	×1.012	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	7.50%	÷0.896	×0.800	—	×1.012	6.78%

Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 79, 1B 104, 2B 141, 3B 86, K 100, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .288 → .224; ISO .174 → .135; BABIP .351 → .307. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).