Evan Carter — OGILVIE

Evan CarterCF Texas Rangers

Age 23 L/R 6'2" / 190 lbs MLB HR +15%BB +5% Svc 1.988 · Ctrl thru 2030

2026 ROS PROJECTION423 act + 9 ros · stats below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+†vL 5382vR 93

AVG/OBP/SLG.125 / .222 / .125

PA9

HR0

K%22

BB%11

BABIP259

ISO141

MLB%100%

Value2026 · WAR

2026 MLB RUNS · solid = so far · light = projected ROS (park-applied)

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$13M ctrl surplus

Tools · Recent Form · Splits · ContractCON 45 / POW 45

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2024-2026

CONTACT45

Whiff%

904.5%

xAVG

100.213

POWER45

Barrel%

305.6

Avg EV

2687.2

Bat Spd

4170.3

EYE60

Chase%

9010.8%

SPEED60

Sprint

8728.9

Recent Formrolling true talent ⓘ

K%28%▼▼32% over 79 PA (30d) · proj 24%

BB%8%▼▼6% over 123 PA (45d) · proj 10%

ISO.122▼.100 over 140 AB (60d) · proj .142xISO .119 vs .127 prior — approach flat: likely noise/luck

HR/BB2.9%▼2.0% over 99 BBE (60d) · proj 3.7%barrel% 5.3% vs 5.9% prior — approach flat: likely noise/luck

BABIP.274·.278 over 97 BIP (60d) · proj .274xBABIP .224 vs .284 prior

SLASH.205/.277/.328▼▼proj .222/.309/.364

Platoon Splits2024-2026 · 464 PA

vs LHP

vs RHP

Edge

407

—

wRC+

-3

115

▶▶R

wOBA

164

338

▶▶R

ISO

—

187

—

BABIP

144

286

▶▶R

26.3%

21.1%

▶▶R

BB%

8.8%

10.1%

▶R

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2023

Service 1.988 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2030

First FA Year 2031

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext	$0.1M	—	—	—
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.9	$3M	+$3M
2028	Arb-1	$3M	+1.0	$7M	+$4M
2029	Arb-2	$6M	+1.1	$7M	+$2M
2030	Arb-3	$9M	+1.1	$6M	+$0.7M
Totals		$19M		$24M	+$10M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2021	18	A	Down East Wood Ducks	—	146	106	25	8	1	2	34	28	5	12	4	236	441	387	828	151	299	19	23	384	146	+8	+1	—	—	+3	1.2
2022	19	AA	Frisco RoughRiders	—	28	21	9	3	0	1	5	6	1	2	1	429	556	714	1.270	286	533	21	18	524	241	+5	+0	—	—	+1	0.5
2022	19	A+	Hickory Crawdads	—	447	376	108	18	10	11	59	75	6	26	12	287	392	476	868	189	329	17	13	381	144	+23	+0	—	—	+10	3.4
2023	20	MLB	Texas Rangers	—	75	62	19	4	1	5	12	24	0	3	0	306	419	645	1.064	339	412	32	16	449	190	+8	+1	+2	-6	+2	0.6
2023	20	AAA	Round Rock Express	—	39	34	12	1	0	0	4	6	1	3	1	353	436	382	818	29	429	15	10	379	142	+2	+0	—	—	+1	0.3
2023	20	AA	Frisco RoughRiders	—	462	377	107	15	6	12	74	103	9	22	10	284	413	451	864	167	360	22	16	388	149	+27	+0	—	—	+10	3.8
2024	21	MLB	Texas Rangers	—	162	144	27	6	2	5	15	43	2	2	0	188	273	361	634	174	227	27	9	284	78	-4	+0	-1	-2	+4	-0.3
2025	22	MLB	Texas Rangers	—	220	194	48	9	2	5	19	41	7	14	2	247	336	392	728	144	291	19	9	330	109	+2	+2	+2	+1	+5	1.3
2025	22	AAA	Round Rock Express	—	102	87	18	2	2	3	14	26	0	6	2	207	317	379	696	172	254	25	14	311	97	-0	+0	—	—	+2	0.2
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	457	400	94	19	5	15	46	108	9	19	2	235	327	420	747	185	283	24	10	333	111	+6	+3	+3	-7	+10	1.6
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2021	18	A MLE	Down East Wood Ducks	—	146	118	23	7	1	2	22	37	5	12	4	195	345	322	667	127	253	25	15	296	86	-2	+1	—	—	+3	0.2
2022	19	AA MLE	Frisco RoughRiders	—	28	23	9	3	0	1	3	7	1	2	1	391	481	652	1.134	261	480	25	11	476	208	+4	+0	—	—	+1	0.4
2022	19	A+ MLE	Hickory Crawdads	—	447	396	92	15	9	8	39	100	6	26	12	232	311	376	687	144	281	22	9	301	90	-5	+0	—	—	+10	0.5
2023	20	MLB MLE	Texas Rangers	—	75	62	19	4	1	5	12	24	0	3	0	306	419	645	1.064	339	412	32	16	422	172	+6	+1	+2	-6	+2	0.5
2023	20	AAA MLE	Round Rock Express	—	39	35	11	1	0	0	3	8	1	3	1	314	385	343	727	29	384	21	8	311	97	-0	+0	—	—	+1	0.1
2023	20	AA MLE	Frisco RoughRiders	—	462	401	98	15	5	10	50	125	9	22	10	244	341	382	723	137	323	27	11	319	102	+1	+0	—	—	+10	1.2
2024	21	MLB MLE	Texas Rangers	—	162	144	27	6	2	5	15	43	2	2	0	188	273	361	634	174	227	27	9	274	71	-5	+0	-1	-2	+4	-0.5
2025	22	MLB MLE	Texas Rangers	—	220	194	48	9	2	5	19	41	7	14	2	247	336	392	728	144	291	19	9	317	101	+0	+2	+2	+1	+5	1.1
2025	22	AAA MLE	Round Rock Express	—	102	91	16	2	2	3	10	31	0	6	2	176	257	341	598	165	208	30	10	246	53	-6	+0	—	—	+2	-0.3
2021	18	A MLE	Down East Wood Ducks	—	146	118	23	7	1	2	22	37	5	12	4	195	345	322	667	127	263	25	15	296	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	18	A RAW	Down East Wood Ducks	—	146	106	25	8	1	2	34	28	5	12	4	236	441	387	828	151	299	19	23	384	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	19	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	475	418	101	18	9	9	43	107	7	28	13	242	323	392	715	151	299	23	9	311	97	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	19	A+ RAW	2 teams	—	475	397	117	21	10	12	64	81	7	28	13	295	402	489	890	194	339	17	13	389	97	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	20	AA MLE	3 teams	—	576	498	126	20	6	14	65	157	10	28	11	253	351	402	752	149	339	27	11	332	111	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	20	AA RAW	3 teams	—	576	473	138	20	7	17	90	133	10	28	11	292	415	471	887	180	371	23	16	395	111	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	21	MLB MLE	Texas Rangers	—	162	144	27	6	2	5	15	43	2	2	0	188	273	361	634	174	227	27	9	274	71	-5	+0	-1	-2	+4	-0.5
2024	21	MLB RAW	Texas Rangers	—	162	144	27	6	2	5	15	43	2	2	0	188	273	361	634	174	227	27	9	284	71	-5	+0	-1	-2	+4	-0.5
2025	22	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	322	285	63	11	4	7	29	72	7	20	4	221	308	361	670	140	271	22	9	295	86	-5	+2	+2	+1	+7	0.8
2025	22	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	322	281	66	11	4	8	33	67	7	20	4	235	330	388	718	153	280	21	10	324	86	-5	+2	+2	+1	+7	0.8
2021	18	A MLE	Down East Wood Ducks	—	146	118	23	7	1	2	22	37	5	12	4	195	345	322	667	127	253	25	15	296	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	19	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	475	422	101	18	9	9	43	107	7	28	13	239	323	389	711	149	293	23	9	311	97	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	20	AA MLE	3 teams	—	576	496	126	20	6	14	65	157	10	28	11	254	351	403	754	149	339	27	11	332	111	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	21	MLB MLE	Texas Rangers	—	162	144	27	6	2	5	15	43	2	2	0	188	273	361	634	174	227	27	9	274	71	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	322	283	63	11	4	7	29	72	7	20	4	223	308	364	672	141	264	22	9	295	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	20	AA MLE	3 teams	—	576	496	126	20	6	14	65	157	10	28	11	254	351	403	754	149	339	27	11	332	111	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	21	MLB MLE	Texas Rangers	—	162	144	27	6	2	5	15	43	2	2	0	188	273	361	634	174	227	27	9	274	71	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	322	283	63	11	4	7	29	72	7	20	4	223	308	364	672	141	264	22	9	295	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	23	MLB MLE	TEX	—	423	363	70	13	3	8	46	106	5	16	2	193	292	311	604	118	248	25	11	269	69	-16	+2	+2	+2	+9	-0.1
▸ 2026 season
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
SO FAR	23	MLB RAW	TEX	—	423	363	71	13	3	9	46	106	5	16	2	196	295	322	617	127	249	25	11	278	69	-16	+2	+2	+2	+9	-0.1
YTD	23	MLB RAW	TEX	—	423	363	71	13	3	9	46	106	5	16	2	196	295	322	617	127	249	25	11	278	74	-13	+2	+2	+2	+9	0.2
ROS	23	MLB MLE	TEX	100%	9	8	1	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	125	222	125	347		257	22	11	289	82	-0	+0	+0	+0	+0	0.0
ROS	23	MLB CTX	TEX	100%	9	8	1	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	125	222	125	347		259	22	11	283	82	-0	+0	+0	+0	+0	0.0
FULL	23	MLB A+C	TEX	—	432	371	72	13	3	9	47	108	5	16	2	194	293	318	611	124	247	25	11	278	69	-16	+2	+2	+2	+9	-0.1
TOT	23	MLB MLE	TEX	—	432	371	71	13	3	8	47	108	5	16	2	191	291	307	598	116	246	25	11	270	69	-16	+2	+2	+2	+9	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	TEX	92%	475	416	87	16	4	11	50	114	6	22	3	209	303	346	649	137	258	24	11	294	85	-8	+3	+3	+2	+10	1.0
2028	25	MLB MLE	TEX	92%	488	427	90	16	4	12	51	116	7	22	4	211	305	351	656	141	258	24	10	296	87	-8	+3	+3	+2	+11	1.1
2029	26	MLB MLE	TEX	92%	494	431	90	16	4	12	53	118	7	23	4	209	305	348	654	139	258	24	11	298	88	-7	+3	+3	+2	+11	1.1
2030	27	MLB MLE	TEX	92%	489	426	90	16	4	12	53	117	7	22	4	211	309	352	661	141	258	24	11	298	88	-7	+3	+3	+2	+11	1.1
2031	28	MLB MLE	TEX	92%	482	420	89	16	4	12	52	116	7	21	3	212	309	355	664	143	257	24	11	297	87	-7	+3	+2	+2	+10	1.0
2032	29	MLB MLE	TEX	92%	470	410	85	15	4	11	51	114	6	19	3	207	304	344	648	137	256	24	11	295	86	-8	+3	+2	+2	+10	0.8
2033	30	MLB MLE	TEX	92%	458	399	81	14	3	11	50	112	6	17	3	203	301	336	637	133	255	24	11	293	84	-9	+2	+1	+2	+10	0.6
2034	31	MLB MLE	TEX	92%	443	386	78	14	3	10	48	110	6	14	2	202	300	332	632	130	253	25	11	288	81	-10	+2	-0	+2	+10	0.3
2035	32	MLB MLE	TEX	92%	424	369	72	12	3	9	46	107	6	11	2	195	295	317	612	122	249	25	11	283	78	-11	+1	-1	+2	+9	-0.0
2027	24	MLB CTX	TEX	92%	437	382	81	14	4	11	46	105	6	20	3	212	306	356	662	144	260	24	11	288	85	-8	+3	+3	+2	+9	0.9
2028	25	MLB CTX	TEX	92%	449	393	84	15	4	12	47	107	6	21	3	214	307	364	671	150	260	24	10	291	87	-7	+3	+3	+2	+10	1.0
2029	26	MLB CTX	TEX	92%	454	397	85	15	4	12	48	108	6	21	3	214	308	363	671	149	260	24	11	292	88	-7	+3	+3	+2	+10	1.1
2030	27	MLB CTX	TEX	92%	450	393	84	15	4	12	48	108	6	21	3	214	309	364	673	150	260	24	11	292	88	-7	+3	+3	+2	+10	1.1
2031	28	MLB CTX	TEX	92%	443	386	82	14	4	12	48	106	6	19	3	212	309	363	672	150	259	24	11	291	87	-7	+3	+2	+2	+10	0.9
2032	29	MLB CTX	TEX	92%	432	376	79	14	3	11	47	105	6	17	3	210	308	351	659	141	259	24	11	290	86	-7	+2	+1	+2	+9	0.7
2033	30	MLB CTX	TEX	92%	421	366	76	13	3	11	46	103	6	15	2	208	306	350	656	142	257	24	11	287	84	-8	+2	+1	+2	+9	0.6
2034	31	MLB CTX	TEX	92%	408	356	73	13	3	10	44	101	5	13	2	205	301	343	644	138	255	25	11	283	81	-9	+2	-0	+1	+9	0.3
2035	32	MLB CTX	TEX	92%	390	340	69	12	3	9	42	98	5	10	2	203	300	335	635	132	251	25	11	277	78	-10	+1	-1	+1	+8	-0.0
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	4350	3797	808	144	37	115	463	1051	61	176	26	213	308	361	669	148	261	24	11	293	88	-64	+25	+18	+7	+94	8.2
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	567	122	22	6	17	69	157	9	26	4	215	310	365	675	150	265	24	11	293	88	-10	+4	+3	+1	+14	1.2
Career	—	MLE		—	5913	5155	1103	197	55	137	629	1442	89	261	60	214	310	353	663	139	268	24	11	298	88	-70	+26	+19	+8	+102	8.7
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	567	121	22	6	15	69	159	10	29	7	213	310	353	662	139	268	24	11	298	88	-10	+4	+3	+1	+14	1.2

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Aaron Hickslast yr '24 career totals — 12 seasons, 3,651 PA	5.5	3,651	109	71	231	330	383	+7	-9	11.8	12.4
/162	664	20	13	+1.3	-1.6	2.1	pk7: 13
#2Danny Espinosalast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,267 PA	4.9	3,267	98	64	221	297	378	+16	+36	11.0	11.4
/162	664	20	13	+3.2	+7.3	2.2	pk7: 12
#3Luis Valbuenalast yr '18 career totals — 10 seasons, 3,527 PA	5.3	3,527	113	10	226	311	395	+13	+1	10.5	11.2
/162	664	21	2	+2.4	+0.1	2.0	pk7: 12
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 13 projected seasons	7.7	5,115	124	211	211	303	351	+18	+14	11.0	9.2
/162	664	16	27	+2.4	+1.8	1.4	pk7: 7
#4Sean Rodríguezlast yr '19 career totals — 11 seasons, 2,871 PA	4.3	2,871	79	42	226	302	380	+10	+16	8.1	8.5
/162	664	18	10	+2.3	+3.7	1.9	pk7: 9
#5Gordon Beckhamlast yr '19 career totals — 10 seasons, 3,764 PA	5.7	3,764	80	34	237	301	368	+13	+19	8.2	8.4
/162	664	14	6	+2.4	+3.4	1.4	pk7: 9
#6Jace Petersonlast yr '23 career totals — 10 seasons, 2,753 PA	4.1	2,753	42	77	228	318	337	+4	+5	5.3	6.0
/162	664	10	19	+1.0	+1.3	1.3	pk7: 7

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Evan Carter (OGILVIE)	23	45	45	60	60	204/297/333	129	257	8	16	24%	10%	82	-0.0	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Ryan Kalish 2011 · MLB	23	49→51	47→50	57→55	48	245/304/382	137	296	14	23	22%	8%	94	+0.9	228/283/336	108	294	10	21	25%	7%	75	-0.5	214/261/305	91	289	8	20	27%	6%	56	-1.1
✕Brett Wisely 2023 · AAA	24	47→50	48→50	55	46	234/298/377	143	301	16	24	27%	8%	91	+0.6	226/293/350	124	292	12	15	25%	8%	82	+0.0	225/293/333	108	284	10	17	23%	8%	76	-0.3
✕Akil Baddoo 2023 · MLB	24	50→53	46→50	54→55	51	242/318/379	137	318	12	22	26%	10%	98	+1.2	220/299/368	148	290	15	25	27%	10%	89	+0.5	211/293/366	155	276	16	28	28%	10%	83	+0.1
✕Trey Sweeney 2023 · AA	23	39→43	47→50	58→55	46	200/276/339	139	268	15	19	30%	9%	74	-0.5	213/284/345	132	280	14	17	28%	8%	78	-0.3	213/282/342	129	276	14	17	27%	8%	75	-0.4
✕Bradley Zimmer 2016 · AA	23	46→51	46→50	58→60	41	227/295/358	132	315	14	28	31%	6%	86	+0.3	225/295/359	134	338	13	28	35%	8%	86	+0.3	229/307/355	126	348	13	28	35%	8%	87	+0.2
✕Ji Hwan Bae 2023 · MLB	24	50→52	42→45	58→60	45	242/297/353	111	305	8	27	23%	7%	84	+0.1	242/306/342	100	326	6	31	25%	8%	84	+0.2	242/313/336	94	331	6	39	26%	9%	83	+0.1
●Matt McLain 2023 · AA	23	40→50	49→55	59→55	47	205/293/360	155	287	16	24	33%	10%	86	+0.3	245/323/418	173	327	19	21	29%	9%	109	+2.0	229/312/387	159	297	19	21	28%	9%	96	+0.9
✕Anthony Volpe 2023 · AAA	22	42→50	52→55	60→55	48	218/298/397	180	264	19	29	25%	8%	96	+1.0	219/284/371	152	274	16	24	25%	8%	84	+0.2	224/284/362	138	278	14	23	24%	7%	80	-0.1
●Maikel Garcia 2023 · MLB	23	51→58	41→50	57→60	48	245/302/348	103	308	7	27	22%	8%	84	+0.2	253/310/363	110	308	8	26	19%	8%	91	+0.6	261/321/393	132	295	10	24	15%	8%	100	+1.2
✕Peter Bourjos 2011 · MLB	24	49→55	45→50	63→60	41	242/284/376	134	293	11	28	22%	4%	84	+0.2	246/300/384	138	308	12	20	23%	6%	93	+0.8	249/309/385	136	316	11	18	24%	6%	95	+0.5
✕Brett Jackson 2012 · AAA	23	47→51	48→50	55	45	229/300/380	151	326	15	19	33%	9%	92	+0.7	191/263/323	132	323	13	17	41%	8%	65	-1.2	166/242/288	122	297	11	17	45%	8%	47	-1.7
●Andrés Giménez 2022 · MLB	23	47→57	47→50	55	39	234/289/371	137	296	14	23	26%	5%	86	+0.3	262/325/407	145	310	15	24	20%	5%	107	+1.9	262/324/395	133	304	14	27	18%	5%	101	+1.4
✕Bo Naylor 2023 · AAA	23	40→43	49→55	54→50	48	203/290/352	149	278	16	16	32%	10%	82	+0.0	214/299/386	172	268	20	10	27%	10%	93	+0.8	205/292/383	178	245	22	6	26%	10%	88	+0.3
✕Victor Robles 2020 · MLB	23	50→52	48→50	55→60	44	249/317/399	151	302	14	26	22%	6%	103	+1.6	228/302/351	123	292	11	19	25%	6%	86	+0.3	282/352/386	105	351	6	51	20%	6%	110	+0.7
✕Oswald Peraza 2023 · MLB	23	46→52	48→45	57→60	41	232/284/367	135	293	16	31	27%	6%	83	+0.1	212/278/332	120	269	14	25	26%	7%	73	-0.6	200/266/303	103	265	13	24	28%	6%	60	-0.9
✕Derek Fisher 2017 · AAA	23	45→50	48→55	55	45	223/295/365	143	312	16	20	32%	9%	86	+0.3	230/301/396	166	321	20	18	33%	9%	97	+1.1	225/302/403	177	309	23	18	33%	9%	95	+0.7
✕Kyle Isbel 2022 · MLB	25	46→52	46→50	56→55	44	228/290/360	133	289	13	20	26%	7%	84	+0.1	229/285/367	138	284	12	16	23%	6%	83	+0.1	238/289/364	126	283	10	11	19%	6%	82	+0.0
✕Eguy Rosario 2023 · AAA	23	45→52	48→55	51→55	44	224/288/368	143	289	15	21	27%	7%	84	+0.2	210/273/359	149	279	16	17	30%	7%	78	-0.3	189/253/336	146	255	17	17	32%	7%	62	-0.7
✕Dalton Pompey 2016 · MLB	23	54→58	41→45	59→55	47	256/313/365	109	320	8	26	22%	7%	93	+0.8	238/295/329	91	308	7	21	23%	7%	78	-0.3	231/291/315	83	305	7	20	25%	7%	71	-0.3
✕Canaan Smith-Njigba 2022 · AAA	23	49→50	43→45	53→55	48	232/307/345	113	328	11	15	30%	10%	86	+0.3	224/293/335	111	332	8	18	32%	9%	79	-0.2	212/284/322	110	316	7	20	32%	9%	69	-0.5

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps