Evan Carter — OGILVIE

Evan CarterCF Texas Rangers

Age 23 L/R 6'2" / 190 lbs MLB Svc 1.988 · Ctrl thru 2030

2026 ROS PROJECTION266 act + 177 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†vL -2069vR 104

AVG/OBP/SLG.222 / .319 / .385

PA177

HR5

SB9

K%24

BB%11

BABIP270

ISO163

MLB%100%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control

Tools · Splits · ContractCON 45 / POW 45

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2024-2026

CONTACT45

Whiff%

905.6%

xwOBA

410.298

POWER45

Barrel%

356.2

Avg EV

2286.9

Bat Spd

4170.3

EYE60

Chase%

9013.4%

SPEED60

Sprint

8728.9

Platoon Splits2024-2026 · 464 PA

vs LHP

vs RHP

Edge

407

—

wRC+

-16

117

▶▶R

wOBA

164

338

▶▶R

ISO

—

187

—

BABIP

144

286

▶▶R

26.3%

21.1%

▶▶R

BB%

8.8%

10.1%

▶R

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2023

Service 1.988 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2030

First FA Year 2031

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext	$0.3M	+0.4	$2M	+$1M
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.9	$14M	+$13M
2028	Arb-1	$4M	+2.0	$14M	+$10M
2029	Arb-2	$8M	+2.1	$13M	+$8M
2030	Arb-3	$12M	+2.1	$12M	+$5M
Totals		$25M		$55M	+$38M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2021	18	A	Down East Wood Ducks	—	146	119	23	7	1	2	21	37	5	12	4	193	338	319	657	126	259	25	14	292	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	18	A	Down East Wood Ducks	—	146	106	25	8	1	2	34	28	5	12	4	236	441	387	828	151	299	19	23	384	152	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	19	A+	2 teams	—	475	417	99	19	9	8	44	107	7	28	13	237	321	384	704	146	295	23	9	308	94	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	19	A+	2 teams	—	475	397	117	21	10	12	64	81	7	28	13	295	402	489	890	194	339	17	13	389	156	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	20	AA	3 teams	—	576	497	127	22	6	16	66	163	10	28	11	256	354	421	775	165	346	28	11	338	116	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	20	AA	3 teams	—	576	473	138	20	7	17	90	133	10	28	11	292	415	471	887	180	371	23	16	395	160	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	21	MLB	Texas Rangers	—	162	144	27	6	2	5	15	43	2	2	0	188	273	361	634	174	227	27	9	278	71	-5	+0	-1	-2	+5	-0.3
2024	21	MLB	Texas Rangers	—	162	144	27	6	2	5	15	43	2	2	0	188	273	361	634	174	227	27	9	284	75	-5	+0	-1	-2	+5	-0.3
2025	22	MLB	2 teams	—	322	284	63	11	4	8	30	70	7	20	4	222	312	373	685	151	266	22	9	302	89	-4	+2	+2	+1	+9	1.1
2025	22	MLB	2 teams	—	322	281	66	11	4	8	33	67	7	20	4	235	330	388	718	153	280	21	10	324	106	+2	+2	+2	+1	+9	1.8
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	23	MLB	TEX	—	266	223	42	7	2	7	33	65	4	11	1	188	304	332	636	143	230	24	12	284	75	-7	+2	+2	+1	+8	0.5
YTD	23	MLB	TEX	—	266	223	42	7	2	7	33	65	4	11	1	188	304	332	636	143	230	24	12	287	78	-7	+2	+2	+1	+8	0.5
ROS	23	MLB	TEX	100%	177	153	34	6	2	5	19	42	3	9	1	222	319	385	704	163	254	24	11	302	89	-2	+1	+1	+1	+5	0.6
ROS	23	MLB	TEX	100%	177	153	34	6	2	5	19	42	3	9	1	222	320	386	706	163	256	24	11	292	81	-4	+1	+1	+1	+5	0.4
FULL	23	MLB	TEX	—	443	376	76	13	4	12	52	107	7	20	2	202	310	354	664	152	247	24	12	287	78	-11	+3	+2	+2	+13	0.9
TOT	23	MLB	TEX	—	443	376	76	13	4	12	52	107	7	20	2	202	310	353	664	151	247	24	12	291	81	-10	+3	+2	+2	+13	1.0
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	24	MLB	TEX	92%	475	412	87	15	4	13	52	111	8	24	4	211	311	362	673	150	256	23	11	307	93	-4	+3	+2	+2	+13	1.7
2028	25	MLB	TEX	92%	488	423	91	16	4	14	54	113	8	24	4	215	315	371	687	156	256	23	11	309	95	-3	+3	+2	+2	+14	1.8
2029	26	MLB	TEX	92%	494	428	91	16	4	14	55	114	8	25	4	213	314	367	680	154	256	23	11	310	96	-2	+3	+2	+2	+14	1.9
2030	27	MLB	TEX	92%	489	423	91	16	4	14	55	114	8	24	4	215	317	371	688	156	256	23	11	310	96	-2	+3	+2	+2	+14	1.9
2031	28	MLB	TEX	92%	482	416	88	15	4	14	55	113	8	23	3	212	315	368	683	156	255	23	11	310	95	-3	+3	+1	+2	+14	1.8
2032	29	MLB	TEX	92%	470	406	86	15	4	13	54	111	7	21	3	212	315	365	679	153	255	24	11	308	94	-3	+3	+1	+2	+13	1.6
2033	30	MLB	TEX	92%	458	396	83	14	4	13	52	109	7	18	3	210	312	364	676	154	253	24	11	305	92	-4	+2	-0	+2	+13	1.3
2034	31	MLB	TEX	92%	443	382	79	13	4	12	51	107	7	15	2	207	311	356	667	149	251	24	12	301	89	-6	+2	-1	+2	+13	1.0
2035	32	MLB	TEX	92%	424	367	73	12	3	11	48	104	6	12	2	199	302	338	640	139	247	25	11	296	84	-7	+2	-2	+2	+12	0.6
2036	33	MLB	TEX	92%	394	340	67	11	3	10	45	99	6	9	1	197	302	335	637	138	243	25	11	289	79	-9	+1	-2	+1	+11	0.2
2037	34	MLB	TEX	88%	349	302	58	9	3	8	39	90	5	6	1	192	295	321	616	129	236	26	11	280	72	-11	+1	-3	+1	+10	-0.2
2027	24	MLB	TEX	92%	437	379	81	14	4	12	48	102	7	22	3	214	313	367	680	153	257	23	11	296	85	-7	+3	+2	+2	+12	1.2
2028	25	MLB	TEX	92%	449	389	83	14	4	13	50	104	7	22	3	213	314	370	684	157	257	23	11	299	87	-7	+3	+2	+2	+13	1.3
2029	26	MLB	TEX	92%	454	393	85	15	4	13	51	105	7	23	3	216	317	374	691	158	257	23	11	300	88	-6	+3	+2	+2	+13	1.4
2030	27	MLB	TEX	92%	450	389	83	14	4	13	51	104	7	22	3	213	315	370	686	157	257	23	11	300	88	-6	+3	+2	+2	+13	1.4
2031	28	MLB	TEX	92%	443	383	82	14	4	13	50	103	7	21	3	214	316	373	689	159	257	23	11	299	87	-6	+3	+1	+2	+13	1.2
2032	29	MLB	TEX	92%	432	373	80	14	4	12	49	102	7	19	3	214	317	370	687	155	256	24	11	298	86	-7	+3	+1	+2	+12	1.0
2033	30	MLB	TEX	92%	421	363	76	13	3	12	48	100	7	17	2	209	313	361	674	152	255	24	11	295	84	-8	+3	-0	+2	+12	0.9
2034	31	MLB	TEX	92%	408	352	72	12	3	11	47	98	6	14	2	205	309	349	658	145	252	24	12	291	81	-9	+2	-1	+1	+12	0.6
2035	32	MLB	TEX	92%	390	337	68	11	3	10	44	96	6	11	2	202	305	341	646	139	249	25	11	286	77	-10	+1	-2	+1	+11	0.2
2036	33	MLB	TEX	92%	362	313	62	10	3	9	41	91	5	8	1	198	301	335	636	137	244	25	11	279	72	-12	+1	-2	+1	+10	-0.1
2037	34	MLB	TEX	88%	305	264	50	8	2	7	34	78	4	5	1	189	291	314	606	125	238	26	11	270	65	-12	+1	-3	+1	+9	-0.5
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	5185	4488	950	164	45	145	578	1233	82	212	29	212	313	365	678	154	257	24	11	297	85	-87	+31	+6	+10	+147	10.9
/ 162G	—			—	650	563	120	21	6	18	72	155	10	27	4	213	313	368	681	155	260	24	11	297	85	-11	+4	+1	+1	+18	1.4
Career	—			—	6824	5909	1267	223	65	180	755	1647	112	300	64	214	315	366	680	151	264	24	11	305	92	-62	+34	+6	+14	+193	18.9
/ 162G	—			—	650	563	120	21	6	17	72	157	11	29	6	213	314	362	677	149	263	24	11	305	92	-6	+3	+1	+1	+18	1.8

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2021	18	A	Down East Wood Ducks	—	146	106	25	8	1	2	34	28	5	12	4	236	441	387	828	151	299	19	23	384	152	+9	+1	—	—	+4	1.4
2022	19	AA	Frisco RoughRiders	—	28	21	9	3	0	1	5	6	1	2	1	429	556	714	1.270	286	533	21	18	524	259	+5	+0	—	—	+1	0.6
2022	19	A+	Hickory Crawdads	—	447	376	108	18	10	11	59	75	6	26	12	287	392	476	868	189	329	17	13	381	149	+25	+0	—	—	+13	3.9
2023	20	MLB	Texas Rangers	—	75	62	19	4	1	5	12	24	0	3	0	306	419	645	1.064	339	412	32	16	449	202	+9	+1	+2	-6	+2	0.7
2023	20	AAA	Round Rock Express	—	39	34	12	1	0	0	4	6	1	3	1	353	436	382	818	29	429	15	10	379	148	+2	+0	—	—	+1	0.3
2023	20	AA	Frisco RoughRiders	—	462	377	107	15	6	12	74	103	9	22	10	284	413	451	864	167	360	22	16	388	155	+29	+0	—	—	+13	4.3
2024	21	MLB	Texas Rangers	—	162	144	27	6	2	5	15	43	2	2	0	188	273	361	634	174	227	27	9	284	75	-5	+0	-1	-2	+5	-0.3
2025	22	MLB	Texas Rangers	—	220	194	48	9	2	5	19	41	7	14	2	247	336	392	728	144	291	19	9	330	111	+3	+2	+2	+1	+6	1.5
2025	22	AAA	Round Rock Express	—	102	87	18	2	2	3	14	26	0	6	2	207	317	379	696	172	254	25	14	311	96	-0	+0	—	—	+3	0.3
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	457	400	94	19	5	15	46	108	9	19	2	235	327	420	747	185	283	24	10	333	113	+7	+3	+3	-7	+13	1.9

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Chris Younglast yr '18 career totals — 13 seasons, 5,316 PA	13	5,316	191	142	235	314	428	-0	+3	21.3	20.7
	/162	664	24	18	235	314	428	-0.0	+0.4	2.7	pk7: 20
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 15 projected seasons	15	5,626	157	233	212	310	366	+11	+16	15.4	12.7
	/162	664	19	27	212	310	366	+1.2	+1.9	1.8	pk7: 10
#2Aaron Hickslast yr '24 career totals — 12 seasons, 3,651 PA	12	3,651	109	71	231	330	383	+7	-9	11.8	12.4
	/162	664	20	13	231	330	383	+1.3	-1.6	2.1	pk7: 13
#3Danny Espinosalast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,267 PA	8	3,267	98	64	221	297	378	+16	+36	11.0	11.4
	/162	664	20	13	221	297	378	+3.2	+7.3	2.2	pk7: 12
#4Luis Valbuenalast yr '18 career totals — 10 seasons, 3,527 PA	10	3,527	113	10	226	311	395	+13	+1	10.5	11.2
	/162	664	21	2	226	311	395	+2.4	+0.1	2.0	pk7: 12
#5Sean Rodríguezlast yr '19 career totals — 11 seasons, 2,871 PA	11	2,871	79	42	226	302	380	+10	+16	8.1	8.5
	/162	664	18	10	226	302	380	+2.3	+3.7	1.9	pk7: 9
#6Jace Petersonlast yr '23 career totals — 10 seasons, 2,753 PA	10	2,753	42	77	228	318	337	+4	+5	5.3	6.0
	/162	664	10	19	228	318	337	+1.0	+1.3	1.3	pk7: 7

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Evan Carter (OGILVIE)	23	45	45	60	60	202/310/353	151	247	12	20	24%	12%	81	+1.0	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Ryan Kalish 2011 · MLB	23	49→51	48→50	57→55	47	244/304/388	144	295	15	23	23%	8%	94	+1.3	227/282/337	110	293	11	21	25%	7%	72	-0.2	212/256/305	93	285	8	20	28%	5%	48	-1.0
✕Anthony Volpe 2023 · AAA	22	42→49	54→55	60→55	48	220/301/407	187	268	20	29	26%	8%	99	+1.7	219/284/372	153	274	16	24	25%	8%	82	+0.5	216/279/363	147	269	15	22	25%	7%	76	+0.1
✕Brett Wisely 2023 · AAA	24	47→51	49→50	55	46	237/301/388	152	305	17	24	28%	8%	94	+1.3	230/296/357	127	295	12	15	25%	8%	83	+0.6	231/293/342	111	293	10	15	23%	7%	76	+0.0
✕Josh Smith 2022 · AA	24	49→52	51→45	56→50	48	247/333/412	165	303	18	23	24%	8%	114	+2.7	229/320/355	126	286	12	13	23%	9%	94	+1.3	238/326/362	125	285	12	10	20%	9%	95	+1.1
✕Oswald Peraza 2023 · MLB	23	45→52	50	57→60	41	234/284/381	148	293	18	31	27%	5%	85	+0.7	215/279/345	130	270	16	25	26%	6%	73	-0.1	206/267/320	115	269	15	25	28%	6%	60	-0.6
✕Trey Sweeney 2023 · AA	23	39→43	48→50	57→55	46	198/276/341	142	266	15	19	30%	9%	71	-0.3	217/288/368	151	280	17	17	28%	8%	83	+0.6	218/288/372	154	276	19	17	27%	8%	81	+0.3
✕Bradley Zimmer 2016 · AA	23	47→51	48→50	58→60	41	229/298/369	140	315	15	28	31%	6%	88	+0.9	224/295/363	139	339	14	28	35%	8%	85	+0.7	231/308/356	126	350	13	28	35%	8%	86	+0.4
●Victor Robles 2020 · MLB	23	50→54	48→50	54→60	44	246/315/395	149	299	14	26	22%	6%	102	+1.8	227/301/350	123	291	11	19	25%	6%	85	+0.7	283/353/387	105	352	6	51	20%	6%	113	+0.9
●Andrés Giménez 2022 · MLB	23	48→58	48→50	55	40	239/294/384	145	300	15	23	26%	5%	90	+1.0	262/324/407	145	309	15	24	20%	5%	108	+2.3	261/323/392	131	302	14	27	18%	5%	100	+1.7
✕Ji Hwan Bae 2023 · MLB	24	48→51	43→45	58→60	44	235/288/354	119	298	9	27	24%	6%	79	+0.3	239/301/343	104	323	7	31	26%	8%	81	+0.4	240/313/341	101	332	7	39	27%	9%	83	+0.3
●Akil Baddoo 2023 · MLB	24	50→54	47→55	54→55	51	244/320/385	140	320	13	22	26%	10%	100	+1.7	226/304/394	168	290	18	25	27%	10%	97	+1.5	222/303/408	186	279	21	28	27%	10%	96	+1.1
●Bo Naylor 2023 · AAA	23	40→44	52→55	54→50	48	206/295/372	166	284	19	16	33%	10%	88	+0.9	216/301/395	179	269	22	10	27%	10%	96	+1.5	207/293/388	181	246	23	6	26%	10%	89	+0.7
●Gregory Polanco 2015 · MLB	23	50→55	47→60	54→55	48	251/306/392	141	293	15	25	20%	7%	96	+1.5	255/315/407	152	299	15	20	19%	8%	104	+2.0	254/325/453	200	285	22	14	19%	9%	113	+2.3
●Matt McLain 2023 · AA	23	40→50	51→55	59→55	46	204/291/370	166	288	19	24	34%	10%	85	+0.7	246/324/427	181	328	21	21	29%	9%	113	+2.6	236/320/399	164	307	19	21	28%	10%	103	+1.6
●Brice Turang 2023 · AAA	23	50→60	43→50	56→60	47	243/300/350	107	307	11	23	24%	8%	82	+0.5	250/312/363	113	307	11	31	21%	8%	91	+1.1	270/345/412	142	330	14	32	21%	10%	114	+2.5
✕Elijah Dunham 2023 · AA	25	43→42	49→50	58→60	47	220/294/377	156	286	16	28	28%	8%	88	+0.9	208/278/359	151	291	16	25	32%	8%	76	+0.1	191/261/336	146	274	15	24	34%	8%	61	-0.6
●Jake McCarthy 2022 · MLB	25	41→51	49→50	63→60	42	207/272/361	154	294	15	30	34%	8%	75	-0.0	258/320/395	137	318	13	34	22%	7%	103	+1.9	272/336/397	125	324	11	37	18%	7%	107	+1.9
●Maikel Garcia 2023 · MLB	23	50→59	42→50	57→60	47	243/299/352	109	307	9	27	23%	8%	82	+0.5	255/311/368	113	311	9	26	20%	8%	92	+1.2	263/322/384	122	308	9	27	17%	8%	99	+1.8
✕Kyle Isbel 2022 · MLB	25	45→53	48→50	56→55	44	227/289/370	143	286	15	20	26%	7%	84	+0.6	231/286/374	143	286	13	16	23%	6%	83	+0.6	242/292/371	130	288	10	11	19%	6%	83	+0.4
✕Anthony Norman 2009 · A	24	47→42	47→50	62→55	52	231/311/376	145	274	13	24	21%	9%	95	+1.4	218/293/352	134	280	12	14	25%	8%	81	+0.4	210/282/335	125	290	10	9	29%	7%	71	-0.1