Evan Carter — OGILVIE

Evan CarterCF Texas Rangers

Age 23 L/R 6'2" / 190 lbs MLB K +3% Svc 1.988 · Ctrl thru 2030 peak 2.7 · 2029

wRC+†vL -1599vR 115

AVG/OBP/SLG.224 / .312 / .377

PA350

HR10

SB15

K%24

BB%10

MLB%100%

Scouting · now → future

HIT

45→45

PWR

45→45

SPD

60→60

EYE

57↗60

trajectory · 10 yrs

2.1peak

2029

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2023

Service 1.988 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2030

First FA Year 2027

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.7	$14M	+$13M
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+2.3	$19M	+$18M
2028	Arb-1	$5M	+2.6	$22M	+$17M
2029	Arb-2	$10M	+2.7	$24M	+$14M
2030	Arb-3	$14M	+2.6	$23M	+$9M
Totals		$31M		$102M	+$71M

Career Projections (MLE)

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2021	18	A	Down East Wood Ducks	146	119	23	7	1	2	21	37	5	12	4	.193	.338	.319	.657	.126	.259	25	14	.298	86	-2	+1	+0	+1	+4	0.3
2022	19	A+	2 teams	475	421	97	18	9	9	40	105	7	28	13	.230	.308	.380	.688	.150	.281	22	8	.300	87	-7	+0	+0	+2	+13	0.9
2023	20	AA	3 teams	576	497	122	19	6	15	66	165	10	28	11	.245	.346	.398	.744	.153	.334	29	11	.329	110	+6	+1	+2	-6	+16	2.0
2024	21	MLB	Texas Rangers	162	144	26	6	1	5	15	43	2	2	0	.181	.267	.340	.607	.160	.216	27	9	.269	64	-7	+0	-1	-2	+5	-0.5
2025	22	MLB	2 teams	322	285	64	11	4	8	29	71	7	20	4	.225	.312	.375	.687	.151	.271	22	9	.299	87	-5	+2	+2	+1	+9	1.1
▸ 2026 Season (actual · ROS · total)
2026	23	MLB	Texas Rangers	91	74	16	4	0	3	14	21	0	4	0	.216	.341	.392	.733	.176	.255	23	15	.318	102	+0	+1	+2	+0	+3	0.6
ROS	23	MLB	TEX	259	226	50	9	2	7	28	61	3	11	2	.221	.315	.372	.687	.150	.271	24	11	.313	98	-1	+1	+2	+1	+7	1.1
TOT	23	MLB	TEX	350	300	66	13	2	10	42	82	3	15	2	.220	.322	.377	.698	.157	.267	23	12	.314	99	-0	+2	+3	+1	+10	1.7
▸ 2027+ Projections — Projections at projected PA · Park-neutral MLB equivalent · Marcel + aging curve
2027	24	MLB	TEX	475	415	93	17	4	14	51	94	6	21	3	.224	.318	.386	.703	.161	.255	20	11	.315	99	-0	+3	+3	+2	+13	2.2
2028	25	MLB	TEX	488	424	96	17	4	15	54	96	7	22	3	.226	.324	.392	.715	.165	.256	20	11	.318	102	+1	+3	+3	+2	+14	2.4
2029	26	MLB	TEX	494	429	97	18	4	15	55	97	7	22	3	.226	.324	.392	.715	.166	.256	20	11	.320	103	+2	+3	+3	+2	+14	2.5
2030	27	MLB	TEX	489	424	96	17	4	15	55	96	7	22	3	.226	.325	.392	.717	.165	.256	20	11	.320	103	+2	+3	+3	+2	+14	2.4
2031	28	MLB	TEX	482	418	93	17	4	14	55	96	6	20	2	.222	.322	.383	.704	.160	.255	20	11	.319	102	+1	+3	+3	+2	+14	2.3
2032	29	MLB	TEX	470	407	90	16	3	14	54	95	6	19	2	.221	.321	.378	.700	.157	.254	20	11	.317	100	+0	+3	+2	+2	+13	2.1
2033	30	MLB	TEX	458	396	87	16	3	13	53	94	6	18	2	.220	.321	.374	.695	.154	.253	21	12	.314	98	-1	+3	+1	+2	+13	1.8
2034	31	MLB	TEX	443	383	83	15	3	12	51	93	6	15	1	.217	.318	.366	.684	.149	.251	21	12	.310	95	-2	+3	+0	+2	+13	1.5
2035	32	MLB	TEX	424	368	78	14	3	11	48	91	5	12	0	.212	.311	.356	.667	.144	.249	21	11	.305	91	-4	+2	-1	+2	+12	1.2
2036	33	MLB	TEX	394	341	72	13	3	10	45	87	5	10	0	.211	.312	.355	.667	.144	.248	22	11	.299	87	-6	+2	-1	+1	+11	0.8
2037	34	MLB	TEX	349	303	61	11	2	8	39	80	4	8	0	.201	.301	.330	.631	.129	.246	23	11	.293	82	-7	+2	-2	+1	+10	0.3
2038	35	MLB	TEX	296	257	51	9	2	7	33	71	4	6	0	.198	.299	.331	.630	.132	.243	24	11	.285	76	-8	+1	-4	+1	+8	-0.1
2039	36	MLB	TEX	238	207	40	7	2	5	26	60	3	5	0	.193	.292	.319	.611	.126	.240	25	11	.276	69	-8	+1	-5	+1	+7	-0.4
▸ Career Totals (MLE all levels + projections)
Career	—			7440	6464	1419	257	64	199	818	1632	106	301	53	.220	.317	.371	.689	.152	.261	22	11	.309	95	-46	+39	+12	+16	+211	23.7
/ 162G	—			650	565	124	22	6	17	71	143	9	26	5	.219	.316	.370	.686	.150	.262	22	11	.309	95	-4	+3	+1	+1	+18	2.0

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2021	18	A	Down East Wood Ducks	146	106	25	8	1	2	34	28	5	12	4	.236	.441	.387	.828	.151	.299	19	23	.384	152	+9	+1	—	—	+4	1.4
2022	19	AA	Frisco RoughRiders	28	21	9	3	0	1	5	6	1	2	1	.429	.556	.714	1.270	.286	.533	21	18	.524	259	+5	+0	—	—	+1	0.6
2022	19	A+	Hickory Crawdads	447	376	108	18	10	11	59	75	6	26	12	.287	.392	.476	.868	.189	.329	17	13	.381	149	+25	+0	—	—	+13	3.9
2023	20	MLB	Texas Rangers	75	62	19	4	1	5	12	24	0	3	0	.306	.419	.645	1.064	.339	.412	32	16	.449	202	+9	+1	+2	-6	+2	0.7
2023	20	AAA	Round Rock Express	39	34	12	1	0	0	4	6	1	3	1	.353	.436	.382	.818	.029	.429	15	10	.379	148	+2	+0	—	—	+1	0.3
2023	20	AA	Frisco RoughRiders	462	377	107	15	6	12	74	103	9	22	10	.284	.413	.451	.864	.167	.360	22	16	.388	155	+29	+0	—	—	+13	4.3
2024	21	MLB	Texas Rangers	162	144	27	6	2	5	15	43	2	2	0	.188	.273	.361	.634	.174	.227	27	9	.284	75	-5	+0	-1	-2	+5	-0.3
2025	22	MLB	Texas Rangers	220	194	48	9	2	5	19	41	7	14	2	.247	.336	.392	.728	.144	.291	19	9	.330	111	+3	+2	+2	+1	+6	1.5
2025	22	AAA	Round Rock Express	102	87	18	2	2	3	14	26	0	6	2	.207	.317	.379	.696	.172	.254	25	14	.311	96	-0	+0	—	—	+3	0.3
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			457	400	94	19	5	15	46	108	9	19	2	.235	.327	.420	.747	.185	.283	24	10	.333	113	+7	+3	+3	-7	+13	1.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Evan Carter (OGILVIE)	23	45	45	60	60	.221/.315/.376	.155	.253	10	16	19%	11%	98	+0.9	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Ryan Kalish 2011 · MLB	23	49→51	47→50	56→55	47	.244/.303/.381	.137	.299	14	21	23%	8%	92	+1.2	.232/.287/.349	.117	.296	12	22	24%	7%	77	+0.1	.216/.264/.311	.095	.291	8	20	27%	6%	53	-0.9
●Gregory Polanco 2015 · MLB	23	51→55	47→60	54→55	48	.253/.306/.393	.140	.293	14	25	19%	7%	96	+1.5	.255/.315/.405	.150	.299	15	21	19%	8%	103	+1.9	.250/.322/.455	.204	.278	24	14	19%	9%	113	+2.3
✕Akil Baddoo 2022 · MLB	23	48→51	49→55	56→55	48	.237/.308/.393	.156	.316	16	20	29%	9%	98	+1.6	.226/.305/.368	.142	.297	14	23	27%	10%	90	+1.0	.214/.295/.378	.164	.277	17	28	28%	10%	85	+0.5
●Andrés Giménez 2022 · MLB	23	47→57	47→50	55	39	.235/.289/.376	.141	.297	15	24	26%	4%	85	+0.7	.263/.326/.414	.151	.311	16	24	20%	5%	111	+2.5	.263/.325/.396	.133	.304	14	27	18%	5%	101	+1.8
✕Anthony Volpe 2023 · AAA	22	42→51	54→55	59→55	48	.223/.304/.414	.191	.270	21	29	26%	9%	102	+1.9	.225/.290/.385	.160	.283	16	24	26%	8%	89	+0.9	.225/.287/.379	.154	.282	15	22	25%	7%	82	+0.5
●Josh Smith 2022 · AA	24	49→53	51→45	56→50	48	.247/.333/.413	.166	.304	18	23	24%	8%	115	+2.7	.230/.322/.356	.126	.289	12	14	23%	9%	95	+1.4	.239/.327/.362	.123	.288	12	10	20%	9%	94	+1.0
✕Brett Wisely 2023 · AAA	24	46→49	50	54→55	45	.235/.297/.389	.154	.303	18	23	28%	8%	92	+1.2	.226/.292/.355	.129	.293	13	15	26%	8%	81	+0.4	.219/.286/.334	.114	.279	11	12	24%	8%	71	-0.2
●Bo Naylor 2023 · AAA	23	39→43	51→55	54→50	47	.204/.289/.363	.160	.282	18	16	33%	10%	82	+0.5	.215/.301/.392	.177	.270	21	10	27%	10%	95	+1.4	.206/.293/.385	.178	.247	22	6	26%	10%	88	+0.6
✕Victor Robles 2020 · MLB	23	50	46→50	54→60	44	.245/.313/.384	.139	.300	12	25	22%	6%	98	+1.6	.229/.303/.348	.119	.293	11	20	24%	6%	85	+0.7	.280/.351/.382	.102	.349	6	51	20%	6%	110	+0.8
●Trent Grisham 2020 · MLB	23	42→48	50→60	54→55	50	.214/.297/.367	.153	.276	17	14	28%	10%	87	+0.8	.228/.315/.400	.172	.282	19	14	25%	10%	102	+1.9	.210/.323/.396	.186	.251	24	8	26%	13%	101	+1.3
●Daulton Varsho 2020 · AA	24	48→49	52→60	55→50	45	.246/.304/.414	.168	.285	20	19	22%	6%	102	+1.9	.238/.303/.424	.186	.278	22	16	23%	8%	105	+2.1	.235/.301/.435	.201	.269	26	15	23%	8%	102	+1.6
●Royce Lewis 2023 · MLB	24	50→49	52→60	55→50	45	.253/.312/.425	.172	.306	19	22	23%	7%	108	+2.3	.261/.317/.468	.207	.304	29	15	24%	7%	121	+3.2	.244/.300/.437	.193	.276	28	12	23%	7%	102	+1.1
●Colby Rasmus 2009 · AAA	22	43→53	51→60	53→50	48	.221/.289/.380	.159	.263	19	16	24%	8%	87	+0.8	.243/.312/.416	.173	.291	20	10	23%	9%	105	+2.1	.237/.305/.454	.217	.309	28	3	32%	8%	109	+1.8
●Domonic Brown 2012 · MLB	24	50→55	50→55	52→55	49	.252/.317/.410	.158	.307	17	19	24%	8%	106	+2.2	.252/.310/.408	.156	.291	17	10	19%	8%	102	+1.9	.251/.305/.408	.156	.284	18	7	18%	7%	93	+1.1
●Cedric Mullins 2019 · MLB	24	46→56	48→55	53→60	44	.233/.276/.379	.145	.272	14	15	20%	5%	80	+0.4	.229/.283/.363	.134	.269	14	22	20%	6%	79	+0.3	.254/.323/.426	.171	.293	19	27	19%	8%	108	+2.3
●Leo Heras 2014 · AAA	24	51→61	48→50	52→55	47	.255/.309/.395	.140	.295	16	18	20%	7%	98	+1.6	.223/.291/.342	.119	.285	10	18	24%	8%	77	+0.1	.244/.318/.385	.141	.314	13	18	25%	9%	97	+0.9
✕Oswald Peraza 2023 · MLB	23	46→51	50	57→60	41	.236/.288/.385	.148	.298	19	31	27%	6%	87	+0.8	.219/.282/.353	.134	.274	17	25	26%	6%	77	+0.1	.202/.272/.322	.120	.252	16	24	26%	7%	62	-0.6
✕Blake Tekotte 2012 · MLB	25	44→46	50	52→55	47	.225/.293/.380	.155	.283	17	23	27%	8%	89	+0.9	.203/.260/.335	.132	.279	13	17	31%	6%	63	-0.9	.194/.258/.314	.119	.261	10	10	28%	6%	53	-0.8
●Brice Turang 2023 · AAA	23	50→60	42→45	55→60	47	.240/.298/.344	.104	.301	10	23	23%	8%	80	+0.4	.245/.306/.349	.104	.302	10	31	21%	8%	85	+0.7	.273/.346/.393	.120	.333	12	35	20%	10%	107	+1.7
●Desmond Jennings 2010 · AAA	23	54→59	45→50	62→60	50	.264/.324/.399	.135	.301	11	33	16%	7%	105	+2.1	.250/.317/.380	.130	.300	11	33	19%	8%	98	+1.6	.252/.331/.406	.154	.301	15	28	21%	9%	106	+2.2

Contract

Career Projections (MLE) Show advanced cols

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Career Path Comps

Career Projections (MLE)