Evan Carter

CF Texas Rangers
Age 24 L/R 6'2" / 190 lbs MLB HR +15%BB +5% Svc 2.988S2 · Ctrl thru 2030
Overview
MLB40-MANArb-1FA 2031
YearAgeLvl / TeamPAAVG/OBP/SLGHRSBwRC+WARMLE AVG/OBP/SLG
202421MLBTEX162.188/.273/.3615275-0.4
202522AAATEX102.207/.317/.3793665—.178/.267/.311
202522MLBTEX220.247/.336/.3925141051.2
202623MLBTEX455.194/.289/.31591767-0.3
2027PROJ24MLBTEX390.217/.307/.349920850.8
2028PROJ92% MLB25MLBTEX374.218/.308/.353919870.8
2029PROJ92% MLB26MLBTEX380.218/.308/.352919870.8
Last 3 seasons WAR 0.5  ·  Next 3 projected WAR 2.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.
ContractESTIMATED
Control thru2030Service2.988First FA2031Super-2
2027Arb-1$2M2028Arb-2$3M2029Arb-3$5M2030Arb-4$7M
Skills · percentileStatcast 2024-2026
Speed87
Bat Spd41
xwOBA34
Barrel%28
Avg EV23
Form.204/.279/.322 ▼▼ rolling true talent (60d window) · proj .216/.303/.344
CompsJakob Marsee (age 23) · Ryan Bliss (age 24) · Ji Hwan Bae (age 24)
2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection
showingPROJ
wRC+†vL 5685vR 96
AVG/OBP/SLG.217 / .307 / .349
PA390
HR9
SB20
K%25
BB%10
BABIP273
ISO134
MLB%100%
Value2027 · WAR
BAT: -6.7 runs (wOBA-derived runs vs avg)-7BATRUN: +3.9 runs (SB/CS + UBR baserunning)+4RUNFLD: +2.3 runs (Defensive runs vs avg)+2FLDPOS: +1.4 runs (Positional adjustment)+1POSREP: +8.5 runs (Replacement-level credit)+8REPTotal WAR: +1.10+1.1WAR
0.00.81.61.10.80.80.827282930313233343536
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$12M ctrl surplus
Tools · Recent Form · Splits · ContractCON 45 / POW 45
Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2024-2026
CONTACT45
xAVG
100.216
POWER45
Barrel%
285.3
Avg EV
2387.1
Bat Spd
4170.3
EYE60
scouting grade only
SPEED60
Sprint
8728.9
Recent Formrolling true talent ⓘ
K%28%▼▼31% over 75 PA (60d) · proj 25%
BB%8%▼▼5% over 75 PA (60d) · proj 10%
ISO.117▼.091 over 66 AB (60d) · proj .128
HR/BB3.0%·2.3% over 44 BBE (60d) · proj 3.3%
BABIP.272·.256 over 43 BIP (60d) · proj .273
SLASH.204/.279/.322▼▼proj .216/.303/.344
Platoon Splits2024-2026 · 464 PA
vs LHP
vs RHP
Edge
PA
57
407
—
wRC+
-3
115
▶▶R
wOBA
164
338
▶▶R
ISO
—
187
—
BABIP
144
286
▶▶R
K%
26.3%
21.1%
▶▶R
BB%
8.8%
10.1%
▶R
Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status   Pre-Arb SUPER-2
MLB Debut   2023
Service   2.988 yrs.days
Team Control Through   2030
First FA Year   2031
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2027Arb-1$2M+1.1$9M+$7M
2028Arb-2$3M+0.8$3M+$0.5M
2029Arb-3$5M+0.8$3M+$0.0M (cut)
2030Arb-4$7M+0.8$3M+$0.0M (cut)
Totals $4M $17M +$8M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.
basis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

YearAge LvlTeam MLB% PAAB H2B3BHR BBSOHBP SBCS AVGOBPSLGOPS ISOBABIP K%BB% wOBAwRC+ BATRUNFLDPOSREP WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
202118 ADown East Wood Ducks — 146106 25812 34285 124 236441387828 151299 1923 384 94 — — — — — —
202219 AAFrisco RoughRiders — 2821 9301 561 21 4295567141.270 286533 2118 524 216 — — — — — —
202219 A+Hickory Crawdads — 447376 108181011 59756 2612 287392476868 189329 1713 381 90 — — — — — —
202320 MLBTexas Rangers — 7562 19415 12240 30 3064196451.064 339412 3216 449 177 +7 +1 +2 -6 +2 0.5
202320 AAARound Rock Express — 3934 12100 461 31 353436382818 29429 1510 379 114 — — — — — —
202320 AAFrisco RoughRiders — 462377 10715612 741039 2210 284413451864 167360 2216 388 109 — — — — — —
202421 MLBTexas Rangers — 162144 27625 15432 20 188273361634 174227 279 284 75 -5 +0 -1 -2 +4 -0.4
202522 MLBTexas Rangers — 220194 48925 19417 142 247336392728 144291 199 330 105 +1 +2 +2 +1 +5 1.2
202522 AAARound Rock Express — 10287 18223 14260 62 207317379696 172254 2514 311 65 — — — — — —
202623 MLBTexas Rangers — 455391 761439 471145 173 194289315604 120248 2510 271 67 -18 +2 +2 +2 +10 -0.3
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career— — 912791 17033824 9322214 365 215308368676 153266 2410 302 91 -10 +5 +5 -5 +20 1.5
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
202118 A MLEDown East Wood Ducks — 146117 24712 23375 124 205359333692 128265 2516 307 94 — — — — — —
202219 AA MLEFrisco RoughRiders — 2822 9301 471 21 4095196821.200 273492 2514 488 216 — — — — — —
202219 A+ MLEHickory Crawdads — 447397 931599 38976 2612 234311385696 151277 229 301 90 — — — — — —
202320 MLB MLETexas Rangers — 7563 19415 11240 30 3024056351.040 333412 3215 430 177 +7 +1 +2 -6 +2 0.5
202320 AAA MLERound Rock Express — 3935 12100 371 31 343410371782 29416 188 337 114 — — — — — —
202320 AA MLEFrisco RoughRiders — 462397 9915510 541259 2210 249352388740 139333 2712 330 109 — — — — — —
202421 MLB MLETexas Rangers — 162144 27625 15432 20 188273361634 174227 279 279 75 -5 +0 -1 -2 +4 -0.4
202522 MLB MLETexas Rangers — 220195 48925 18417 142 246332390722 144291 198 323 105 +1 +2 +2 +1 +5 1.2
202522 AAA MLERound Rock Express — 10290 16222 11290 62 178267311578 133230 2811 265 65 — — — — — —
202623 MLB MLETexas Rangers — 455391 761538 471145 173 194289309598 115248 2510 267 67 -18 +2 +2 +2 +10 -0.3
202118 A MLEDown East Wood Ducks — 146117 24712 23375 124 205359333692 128278 2516 307 94 — — — — — —
202118 A RAWDown East Wood Ducks — 146106 25812 34285 124 236441387828 151299 1923 384 94 — — — — — —
202219 A+ MLE2 teams — 475420 10218910 411057 2813 243321400721 157296 229 312 97 — — — — — —
202219 A+ RAW2 teams — 475397 117211012 64817 2813 295402489890 194339 1713 389 97 — — — — — —
202320 AA MLE3 teams — 576495 12920615 6815610 2811 261361416777 156349 2712 343 119 — — — — — —
202320 AA RAW3 teams — 576473 13820717 9013310 2811 292415471887 180371 2316 395 119 — — — — — —
202421 MLB MLETexas Rangers — 162144 27625 15432 20 188273361634 174227 279 279 75 -5 +0 -1 -2 +4 -0.4
202421 MLB RAWTexas Rangers — 162144 27625 15432 20 188273361634 174227 279 284 75 -5 +0 -1 -2 +4 -0.4
202522 MLB MLE2 teams — 322285 641147 29707 204 225312365676 140273 229 305 92 -3 +2 +2 +1 +7 1.0
202522 MLB RAW2 teams — 322281 661148 33677 204 235330388718 153280 2110 324 92 -3 +2 +2 +1 +7 1.0
202623 MLB MLETexas Rangers — 455391 761538 471145 173 194289309598 115251 2510 267 67 -18 +2 +2 +2 +10 -0.3
202623 MLB RAWTexas Rangers — 455391 761439 471145 173 194289315604 120248 2510 271 67 -18 +2 +2 +2 +10 -0.3
202118 A MLEDown East Wood Ducks — 146117 24712 23375 124 205359333692 128265 2516 307 94 — — — — — —
202219 A+ MLE2 teams — 475424 10218910 411057 2813 241321396717 156290 229 312 97 — — — — — —
202320 AA MLE3 teams — 576493 12920615 6815610 2811 262361418779 156349 2712 343 119 — — — — — —
202421 MLB MLETexas Rangers — 162144 27625 15432 20 188273361634 174227 279 279 75 — — — — — —
202522 MLB MLE2 teams — 322283 641147 29707 204 226312367679 141271 229 305 92 — — — — — —
202623 MLB MLETexas Rangers — 455400 761538 471145 173 190289302591 112248 2510 267 67 — — — — — —
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
202421 MLB MLETexas Rangers — 162144 27625 15432 20 188273361634 174227 279 279 75 — — — — — —
202522 MLB MLE2 teams — 322283 641147 29707 204 226312367679 141271 229 305 92 — — — — — —
202623 MLB MLETexas Rangers — 455400 761538 471145 173 190289302591 112248 2510 267 67 — — — — — —
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
202724 MLB MLETEX 100% 475418 8916310 481176 255 216306344650 128273 2510 295 85 -8 +3 +3 +2 +10 1.1
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
202724 MLB CTXTEX 100% 390343 751339 39965 204 217307349656 132273 2510 297 85 -7 +2 +2 +1 +8 0.8
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
202825 MLB MLETEX 92% 406357 781439 411005 214 217307348655 130273 2510 296 87 -6 +3 +2 +1 +9 0.9
202926 MLB MLETEX 92% 413363 781439 421025 214 217307347654 130273 2510 296 87 -7 +3 +2 +1 +9 0.9
203027 MLB MLETEX 92% 407358 781439 411015 204 216306345651 129273 2510 295 86 -7 +2 +2 +1 +9 0.8
203128 MLB MLETEX 92% 398350 751438 40995 183 214304340645 126272 2510 292 84 -8 +2 +2 +1 +9 0.7
203229 MLB MLETEX 92% 383336 721338 39975 153 212302334636 122271 2510 289 82 -8 +2 +1 +1 +8 0.4
203330 MLB MLETEX 92% 369325 671227 37944 122 209298326625 118269 2510 285 79 -9 +2 +0 +1 +8 0.2
202825 MLB CTXTEX 92% 374328 721239 38925 194 218308353661 134273 2510 299 87 -6 +2 +2 +1 +8 0.8
202926 MLB CTXTEX 92% 380334 741339 38945 194 218308352660 134273 2510 299 87 -6 +2 +2 +1 +8 0.8
203027 MLB CTXTEX 92% 374328 721239 38935 194 217307350657 133272 2510 297 86 -6 +2 +2 +1 +8 0.8
203128 MLB CTXTEX 92% 366321 691238 37915 173 215305345650 130271 2510 295 84 -7 +2 +2 +1 +8 0.6
203229 MLB CTXTEX 92% 352310 661128 35894 143 213302339641 126270 2510 291 82 -8 +2 +1 +1 +8 0.4
203330 MLB CTXTEX 92% 339298 631127 34874 112 210299331630 121268 2610 286 79 -9 +1 +0 +1 +7 0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career— A+C — 30972710 5861042474 31376842 13525 216307354661 138272 2510 297 89 -52 +17 +14 +3 +67 5.0
/ 162G— A+C — 650569 12422516 661619 285 218309359668 141273 2510 297 89 -11 +4 +3 +1 +14 1.0
Career— MLE — 49024284 94517245105 502121470 23459 221312355668 135281 2510 299 89 -62 +21 +17 +5 +80 6.1
/ 162G— MLE — 650568 12623614 671619 318 222314357671 136282 2510 299 89 -11 +4 +3 +1 +14 1.1

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2025 AAARound Rock Express · 102 PAwOBA .307 → .265 (−41)K% 25.5% → 28.2%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA25.49%÷1.086×1.200——28.18%
BB% (unintentional) /PA13.73%÷0.962×0.690—×1.05010.34%
HBP% /PA0.00%—×0.940—×1.0500.00%
Singles /BIP18.03%÷1.053×0.930×0.950×1.05015.89%
Doubles /BIP3.28%÷0.881×0.830×0.950×1.0503.08%
Triples /BIP3.28%÷0.921×0.970×0.950×1.0503.44%
Home runs /BIP4.92%÷0.913×0.700—×1.0503.96%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 83, 1B 111, 2B 76, 3B 84, K 117, BB 92 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .307 → .265; ISO .172 → .157; BABIP .254 → .230. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAFrisco RoughRiders · 462 PAwOBA .379 → .330 (−49)K% 22.3% → 27.0%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA22.29%÷1.009×1.220——26.95%
BB% (unintentional) /PA15.58%÷0.989×0.700—×1.05011.58%
HBP% /PA1.95%—×0.870—×1.0501.78%
Singles /BIP27.01%÷1.031×0.920×0.982×1.05024.85%
Doubles /BIP5.47%÷0.875×0.840×0.982×1.0505.42%
Triples /BIP2.19%÷1.074×0.940×0.982×1.0501.98%
Home runs /BIP4.38%÷0.974×0.800—×1.0503.78%

Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 95, 1B 106, 2B 75, 3B 115, K 102, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 24.8 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.982.

Result: wOBA .379 → .330; ISO .167 → .151; BABIP .360 → .333. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAARound Rock Express · 39 PAwOBA .369 → .337 (−32)K% 15.4% → 19.1%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA15.38%÷0.964×1.200——19.14%
BB% (unintentional) /PA10.26%÷0.991×0.690—×1.0507.49%
HBP% /PA2.56%—×0.940—×1.0502.53%
Singles /BIP39.29%÷0.993×0.930—×1.05038.64%
Doubles /BIP3.57%÷1.044×0.830—×1.0502.98%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷0.918×0.970—×1.0500.00%
Home runs /BIP0.00%÷1.035×0.700—×1.0500.00%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 107, 1B 99, 2B 109, 3B 84, K 93, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (6.2 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .369 → .337; ISO .029 → .024; BABIP .429 → .416. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 A+Hickory Crawdads · 447 PAwOBA .375 → .301 (−74)K% 16.8% → 21.8%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA16.78%÷1.007×1.310——21.84%
BB% (unintentional) /PA13.20%÷0.985×0.600—×1.0428.38%
HBP% /PA1.34%—×0.770—×1.0421.08%
Singles /BIP22.92%÷1.039×0.870×0.969×1.04219.38%
Doubles /BIP5.98%÷0.939×0.780×0.969×1.0425.02%
Triples /BIP3.32%÷0.984×0.850×0.969×1.0422.90%
Home runs /BIP3.65%÷1.123×0.880—×1.0422.98%

Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 125, 1B 108, 2B 88, 3B 97, K 101, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.969.

Result: wOBA .375 → .301; ISO .189 → .161; BABIP .329 → .277. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAFrisco RoughRiders · 28 PAwOBA .530 → .488 (−42)K% 21.4% → 25.9%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA21.43%÷1.010×1.220——25.89%
BB% (unintentional) /PA17.86%÷1.012×0.700—×1.05012.97%
HBP% /PA3.57%—×0.870—×1.0503.26%
Singles /BIP33.33%÷1.003×0.920—×1.05032.10%
Doubles /BIP20.00%÷1.030×0.840—×1.05017.13%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷0.900×0.940—×1.0500.00%
Home runs /BIP6.67%÷0.915×0.800—×1.0506.12%

Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 83, 1B 101, 2B 106, 3B 80, K 102, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 24.8 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.8 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .530 → .488; ISO .286 → .274; BABIP .533 → .492. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 ADown East Wood Ducks · 146 PAwOBA .377 → .307 (−70)K% 19.2% → 25.6%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA19.18%÷1.017×1.360——25.65%
BB% (unintentional) /PA22.60%÷1.050×0.690—×1.04515.52%
HBP% /PA3.42%—×0.780—×1.0452.79%
Singles /BIP17.95%÷1.020×0.920×0.976×1.04516.51%
Doubles /BIP10.26%÷1.006×0.830×0.976×1.0458.63%
Triples /BIP1.28%÷1.069×0.910×0.976×1.0451.11%
Home runs /BIP2.56%÷0.996×0.800—×1.0452.15%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 99, 1B 104, 2B 101, 3B 114, K 103, BB 110 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 22.0 → +4.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.976.

Result: wOBA .377 → .307; ISO .151 → .134; BABIP .299 → .265. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).