Trey Sweeney
SS Detroit Tigers| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 23 | AANYY | 472 | .252/.368/.411 | 13 | 20 | 86 | — | .224/.315/.349 | |
| 2024 | 24 | AAADET | 487 | .267/.347/.450 | 15 | 20 | 84 | — | .226/.287/.386 | |
| 2024 | 24 | MLBDET | 119 | .218/.271/.373 | 4 | 2 | 83 | 1.0 | ||
| 2025 | 25 | AAADET | 52 | .326/.442/.512 | 2 | 4 | 137 | — | .311/.404/.489 | |
| 2025 | 25 | MLBDET | 326 | .196/.261/.291 | 6 | 3 | 58 | -0.8 | ||
| 2026 | 26 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
| 2027PROJ | 27 | MLBDET | 188 | .209/.277/.342 | 5 | 5 | 78 | 0.0 | ||
| 2028PROJ65% MLB | 28 | MLBDET | 248 | .207/.275/.338 | 6 | 5 | 76 | -0.1 | ||
| 2029PROJ65% MLB | 29 | MLBDET | 238 | .205/.273/.332 | 6 | 4 | 74 | -0.2 | ||
Tools · Splits · ContractCON 35 / POW 45
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 21 | A | Tampa Tarpons | — | 129 | 110 | 27 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 18 | 29 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 245 | 357 | 518 | 875 | 273 | 280 | 22 | 14 | 381 | 86 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | AA | Somerset Patriots | — | 50 | 43 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 10 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 233 | 340 | 395 | 735 | 163 | 258 | 20 | 14 | 333 | 77 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | A+ | Hudson Valley Renegades | — | 458 | 390 | 94 | 18 | 4 | 14 | 59 | 108 | 7 | 29 | 2 | 241 | 350 | 415 | 765 | 174 | 297 | 24 | 13 | 344 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | AA | Somerset Patriots | — | 472 | 397 | 100 | 20 | 2 | 13 | 65 | 90 | 8 | 20 | 7 | 252 | 368 | 411 | 779 | 159 | 294 | 19 | 14 | 352 | 86 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | MLB | Detroit Tigers | — | 119 | 110 | 24 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 7 | 32 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 218 | 271 | 373 | 644 | 155 | 267 | 27 | 6 | 285 | 83 | -2 | +0 | +2 | +6 | +3 | 1.0 |
| 2024 | 24 | AAA | Toledo Mud Hens | — | 487 | 431 | 115 | 28 | 3 | 15 | 49 | 130 | 4 | 20 | 4 | 267 | 347 | 450 | 797 | 183 | 346 | 27 | 10 | 352 | 84 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | MLB | Detroit Tigers | — | 326 | 296 | 58 | 6 | 2 | 6 | 26 | 92 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 196 | 261 | 291 | 551 | 95 | 257 | 28 | 8 | 250 | 58 | -16 | +0 | -2 | +4 | +7 | -0.8 |
| 2025 | 25 | AAA | Toledo Mud Hens | — | 52 | 43 | 14 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 11 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 326 | 442 | 512 | 954 | 186 | 400 | 21 | 13 | 426 | 137 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MLB Career | — | — | 445 | 406 | 82 | 11 | 2 | 10 | 33 | 124 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 202 | 264 | 313 | 576 | 111 | 260 | 28 | 7 | 259 | 62 | -20 | +1 | -0 | +11 | +10 | 0.0 | ||
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 21 | A MLE | Tampa Tarpons | — | 129 | 115 | 24 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 13 | 39 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 209 | 295 | 435 | 729 | 226 | 254 | 30 | 10 | 295 | 86 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | AA MLE | Somerset Patriots | — | 50 | 45 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 12 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 222 | 300 | 378 | 678 | 156 | 258 | 24 | 10 | 282 | 77 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | A+ MLE | Hudson Valley Renegades | — | 458 | 413 | 75 | 15 | 3 | 12 | 37 | 139 | 7 | 29 | 2 | 182 | 260 | 320 | 580 | 138 | 239 | 30 | 8 | 256 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | AA MLE | Somerset Patriots | — | 472 | 415 | 93 | 18 | 2 | 10 | 47 | 109 | 8 | 20 | 7 | 224 | 315 | 349 | 664 | 125 | 274 | 23 | 10 | 295 | 86 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | MLB MLE | Detroit Tigers | — | 119 | 110 | 24 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 7 | 32 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 218 | 271 | 373 | 644 | 155 | 267 | 27 | 6 | 291 | 83 | -2 | +0 | +2 | +6 | +3 | 1.0 |
| 2024 | 24 | AAA MLE | Toledo Mud Hens | — | 487 | 446 | 101 | 23 | 3 | 14 | 34 | 153 | 4 | 20 | 4 | 226 | 287 | 386 | 673 | 159 | 305 | 31 | 7 | 292 | 84 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | MLB MLE | Detroit Tigers | — | 326 | 296 | 59 | 6 | 2 | 6 | 26 | 92 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 199 | 264 | 294 | 558 | 95 | 257 | 28 | 8 | 254 | 58 | -16 | +0 | -2 | +4 | +7 | -0.8 |
| 2025 | 25 | AAA MLE | Toledo Mud Hens | — | 52 | 45 | 14 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 12 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 311 | 404 | 489 | 893 | 178 | 378 | 23 | 10 | 371 | 137 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 21 | A MLE | Tampa Tarpons | — | 129 | 115 | 24 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 13 | 39 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 209 | 295 | 435 | 729 | 226 | 268 | 30 | 10 | 295 | 86 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 21 | A RAW | Tampa Tarpons | — | 129 | 110 | 27 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 18 | 29 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 245 | 357 | 518 | 875 | 273 | 280 | 22 | 14 | 381 | 86 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 508 | 458 | 85 | 16 | 3 | 14 | 42 | 151 | 7 | 31 | 3 | 186 | 264 | 325 | 590 | 140 | 241 | 30 | 8 | 259 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 508 | 433 | 104 | 19 | 4 | 16 | 66 | 118 | 7 | 31 | 3 | 240 | 349 | 413 | 763 | 173 | 293 | 23 | 13 | 343 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | AA MLE | Somerset Patriots | — | 472 | 415 | 93 | 18 | 2 | 10 | 47 | 109 | 8 | 20 | 7 | 224 | 315 | 349 | 664 | 125 | 279 | 23 | 10 | 295 | 86 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | AA RAW | Somerset Patriots | — | 472 | 397 | 100 | 20 | 2 | 13 | 65 | 90 | 8 | 20 | 7 | 252 | 368 | 411 | 779 | 159 | 294 | 19 | 14 | 352 | 86 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 606 | 556 | 126 | 29 | 3 | 18 | 41 | 185 | 5 | 22 | 4 | 227 | 286 | 387 | 672 | 160 | 303 | 31 | 7 | 292 | 84 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 606 | 541 | 139 | 33 | 3 | 19 | 56 | 162 | 5 | 22 | 4 | 257 | 332 | 434 | 767 | 177 | 330 | 27 | 9 | 339 | 84 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | MLB MLE | 2 teams | — | 378 | 341 | 72 | 8 | 2 | 8 | 31 | 104 | 2 | 7 | 2 | 211 | 281 | 317 | 597 | 106 | 275 | 28 | 8 | 270 | 69 | -14 | +1 | -2 | +4 | +8 | -0.4 |
| 2025 | 25 | MLB RAW | 2 teams | — | 378 | 339 | 72 | 8 | 2 | 8 | 33 | 103 | 2 | 7 | 2 | 212 | 286 | 319 | 605 | 106 | 276 | 27 | 9 | 274 | 69 | -14 | +1 | -2 | +4 | +8 | -0.4 |
| 2021 | 21 | A MLE | Tampa Tarpons | — | 129 | 114 | 24 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 13 | 39 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 211 | 295 | 439 | 733 | 228 | 254 | 30 | 10 | 295 | 86 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 508 | 454 | 85 | 16 | 3 | 14 | 42 | 151 | 7 | 31 | 3 | 187 | 264 | 328 | 592 | 141 | 241 | 30 | 8 | 259 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | AA MLE | Somerset Patriots | — | 472 | 414 | 93 | 18 | 2 | 10 | 47 | 109 | 8 | 20 | 7 | 225 | 315 | 350 | 665 | 126 | 274 | 23 | 10 | 295 | 86 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 606 | 555 | 126 | 29 | 3 | 18 | 41 | 185 | 5 | 22 | 4 | 227 | 286 | 387 | 673 | 160 | 297 | 31 | 7 | 292 | 84 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | MLB MLE | 2 teams | — | 378 | 342 | 72 | 8 | 2 | 8 | 31 | 104 | 2 | 7 | 2 | 211 | 281 | 316 | 597 | 105 | 274 | 28 | 8 | 270 | 69 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 24 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 606 | 555 | 126 | 29 | 3 | 18 | 41 | 185 | 5 | 22 | 4 | 227 | 286 | 387 | 673 | 160 | 297 | 31 | 7 | 292 | 84 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | MLB MLE | 2 teams | — | 378 | 342 | 72 | 8 | 2 | 8 | 31 | 104 | 2 | 7 | 2 | 211 | 281 | 316 | 597 | 105 | 274 | 28 | 8 | 270 | 69 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB MLE | DET | 100% | 428 | 389 | 83 | 14 | 2 | 12 | 33 | 114 | 3 | 10 | 2 | 213 | 281 | 351 | 632 | 138 | 266 | 27 | 8 | 283 | 78 | -11 | +1 | -3 | +5 | +9 | 0.2 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB CTX | DET | 100% | 188 | 170 | 36 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 15 | 50 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 209 | 277 | 342 | 619 | 133 | 262 | 27 | 8 | 278 | 78 | -5 | +1 | -1 | +2 | +4 | 0.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 28 | MLB MLE | DET | 65% | 381 | 345 | 73 | 12 | 2 | 10 | 30 | 102 | 3 | 8 | 2 | 211 | 279 | 346 | 625 | 135 | 266 | 27 | 8 | 280 | 76 | -11 | +1 | -4 | +4 | +8 | -0.2 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB MLE | DET | 65% | 366 | 332 | 70 | 11 | 2 | 10 | 28 | 99 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 209 | 276 | 341 | 617 | 132 | 264 | 27 | 8 | 277 | 74 | -12 | +0 | -4 | +4 | +8 | -0.4 |
| 2030 | 30 | MLB MLE | DET | 65% | 353 | 321 | 67 | 11 | 2 | 9 | 27 | 97 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 206 | 273 | 333 | 606 | 127 | 263 | 27 | 8 | 273 | 71 | -12 | +0 | -5 | +4 | +8 | -0.6 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB CTX | DET | 65% | 248 | 225 | 46 | 8 | 1 | 6 | 19 | 67 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 207 | 275 | 338 | 613 | 130 | 261 | 27 | 8 | 275 | 76 | -7 | +1 | -2 | +3 | +5 | -0.1 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB CTX | DET | 65% | 238 | 216 | 44 | 7 | 1 | 6 | 18 | 64 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 205 | 273 | 332 | 605 | 127 | 260 | 27 | 8 | 272 | 74 | -7 | +0 | -3 | +3 | +5 | -0.2 |
| 2030 | 30 | MLB CTX | DET | 65% | 229 | 207 | 43 | 7 | 1 | 6 | 18 | 63 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 203 | 269 | 325 | 595 | 123 | 258 | 28 | 8 | 268 | 71 | -8 | +0 | -3 | +2 | +5 | -0.4 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 1160 | 1054 | 215 | 33 | 5 | 28 | 88 | 318 | 7 | 17 | 4 | 204 | 270 | 324 | 594 | 120 | 261 | 27 | 8 | 267 | 75 | -43 | +2 | -8 | +18 | +25 | -0.7 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 591 | 120 | 18 | 3 | 16 | 49 | 178 | 4 | 10 | 2 | 203 | 269 | 325 | 594 | 122 | 259 | 27 | 8 | 267 | 75 | -24 | +1 | -5 | +10 | +14 | -0.4 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 3381 | 3053 | 646 | 114 | 21 | 89 | 274 | 936 | 32 | 106 | 23 | 212 | 283 | 350 | 634 | 139 | 272 | 28 | 8 | 279 | 75 | -60 | +3 | -15 | +24 | +38 | -1.0 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 587 | 124 | 22 | 4 | 17 | 53 | 180 | 6 | 20 | 4 | 211 | 283 | 349 | 633 | 138 | 272 | 28 | 8 | 279 | 75 | -23 | +1 | -5 | +9 | +14 | -0.4 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2025 AAAToledo Mud Hens · 52 PAwOBA .415 → .371 (−44)K% 21.2% → 23.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 21.15% | ÷1.073 | ×1.200 | — | — | 23.66% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.46% | ÷0.988 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.033 | 9.71% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.85% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.033 | 3.73% |
| Singles /BIP | 31.25% | ÷0.993 | ×0.930 | — | ×1.033 | 30.22% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.25% | ÷0.953 | ×0.830 | — | ×1.033 | 5.62% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.905 | ×0.970 | — | ×1.033 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.25% | ÷0.872 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.033 | 5.18% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 74, 1B 99, 2B 91, 3B 81, K 115, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .415 → .371; ISO .186 → .161; BABIP .400 → .378. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AAAToledo Mud Hens · 487 PAwOBA .344 → .292 (−52)K% 26.7% → 31.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 26.69% | ÷1.022 | ×1.200 | — | — | 31.36% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.65% | ÷1.016 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.048 | 6.87% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.82% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.048 | 0.81% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.92% | ÷1.117 | ×0.930 | ×1.026 | ×1.048 | 20.52% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.30% | ÷1.049 | ×0.830 | ×1.026 | ×1.048 | 7.91% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.00% | ÷1.070 | ×0.970 | ×1.026 | ×1.048 | 0.97% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.98% | ÷0.792 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.048 | 4.62% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 58, 1B 123, 2B 110, 3B 114, K 104, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 27.2 → +4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.026.
Result: wOBA .344 → .292; ISO .183 → .163; BABIP .346 → .305. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AASomerset Patriots · 472 PAwOBA .344 → .295 (−49)K% 19.1% → 23.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 19.07% | ÷1.006 | ×1.220 | — | — | 23.12% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.56% | ÷0.973 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.027 | 10.02% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.69% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×1.027 | 1.48% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.17% | ÷0.987 | ×0.970 | ×0.950 | ×1.027 | 20.29% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.51% | ÷0.958 | ×0.860 | ×0.950 | ×1.027 | 5.71% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.65% | ÷0.900 | ×0.950 | ×0.950 | ×1.027 | 0.67% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.23% | ÷1.033 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.027 | 3.28% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 107, 1B 97, 2B 92, 3B 80, K 101, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .344 → .295; ISO .159 → .131; BABIP .294 → .274. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 A+Hudson Valley Renegades · 458 PAwOBA .336 → .256 (−80)K% 23.6% → 30.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 23.58% | ÷1.015 | ×1.310 | — | — | 30.42% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.88% | ÷0.976 | ×0.600 | — | ×1.012 | 8.02% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.53% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×1.012 | 1.19% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.57% | ÷1.084 | ×0.870 | ×0.977 | ×1.012 | 16.31% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.38% | ÷0.895 | ×0.780 | ×0.977 | ×1.012 | 5.50% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.42% | ÷1.028 | ×0.850 | ×0.977 | ×1.012 | 1.16% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.96% | ÷1.014 | ×0.880 | — | ×1.012 | 4.36% |
Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 103, 1B 117, 2B 79, 3B 106, K 103, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.977.
Result: wOBA .336 → .256; ISO .174 → .148; BABIP .297 → .239. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 AASomerset Patriots · 50 PAwOBA .325 → .282 (−43)K% 20.0% → 24.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.00% | ÷0.998 | ×1.220 | — | — | 24.46% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 14.00% | ÷0.985 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.042 | 10.37% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×1.042 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.21% | ÷0.983 | ×0.970 | — | ×1.042 | 21.81% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.03% | ÷0.972 | ×0.860 | — | ×1.042 | 2.79% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.969 | ×0.950 | — | ×1.042 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.06% | ÷1.032 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.042 | 4.77% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 106, 1B 97, 2B 94, 3B 94, K 100, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 24.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .325 → .282; ISO .163 → .130; BABIP .258 → .258. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 ATampa Tarpons · 129 PAwOBA .371 → .295 (−76)K% 22.5% → 30.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 22.48% | ÷1.000 | ×1.360 | — | — | 30.57% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.95% | ÷1.000 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.015 | 9.77% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.78% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.015 | 0.61% |
| Singles /BIP | 16.05% | ÷1.000 | ×0.920 | ×1.009 | ×1.015 | 15.12% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.94% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | ×1.009 | ×1.015 | 4.20% |
| Triples /BIP | 4.94% | ÷1.000 | ×0.910 | ×1.009 | ×1.015 | 4.60% |
| Home runs /BIP | 7.41% | ÷1.000 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.015 | 6.01% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.009.
Result: wOBA .371 → .295; ISO .273 → .218; BABIP .280 → .254. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).