Braden Shewmake
SS Milwaukee Brewers| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 26 | AAACWS | 33 | .152/.152/.182 | 0 | 0 | -32 | — | .121/.121/.152 |
| 2024 | 26 | MLBCWS | 67 | .125/.138/.203 | 1 | 5 | -15 | -0.7 | |
| 2025 | 27 | AAAScranton/Wilk… | 315 | .244/.322/.362 | 4 | 15 | 51 | — | .203/.257/.297 |
| 2026 | 28 | AAAHOU | 88 | .200/.302/.267 | 0 | 3 | 30 | — | .167/.244/.218 |
| 2026 | 28 | MLBMIL | 91 | .259/.276/.424 | 3 | 1 | 86 | 0.3 | |
| 2027PROJ | 29 | MLBMIL | 142 | .200/.248/.293 | 2 | 4 | 53 | -0.3 | |
| 2028PROJ65% MLB | 30 | MLBMIL | 122 | .199/.248/.292 | 2 | 3 | 53 | -0.4 |
Tools · ContractCON 50 / POW 40
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2019 | 21 | AA | Mississippi Braves | — | 52 | 46 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 11 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 217 | 294 | 217 | 512 | 278 | 21 | 8 | 242 | 24 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2019 | 21 | A | Rome Braves | — | 226 | 201 | 64 | 18 | 2 | 3 | 21 | 29 | 3 | 11 | 3 | 318 | 391 | 473 | 864 | 154 | 359 | 13 | 9 | 383 | 87 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 23 | AA | Mississippi Braves | — | 344 | 324 | 74 | 14 | 3 | 12 | 17 | 75 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 228 | 270 | 401 | 672 | 173 | 262 | 22 | 5 | 296 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | AAA | Gwinnett Stripers | — | 307 | 278 | 72 | 14 | 2 | 7 | 23 | 57 | 2 | 9 | 0 | 259 | 320 | 399 | 719 | 140 | 298 | 19 | 7 | 318 | 67 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | AAA | Gwinnett Stripers | — | 526 | 474 | 111 | 28 | 3 | 16 | 39 | 104 | 7 | 27 | 1 | 234 | 302 | 407 | 709 | 173 | 264 | 20 | 7 | 312 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 26 | MLB | Chicago White Sox | — | 67 | 64 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 125 | 138 | 203 | 342 | 78 | 127 | 15 | 1 | 147 | -15 | -9 | +1 | -1 | +1 | +1 | -0.7 |
| 2024 | 26 | AAA | Charlotte Knights | — | 33 | 33 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 152 | 152 | 182 | 333 | 30 | 192 | 21 | 0 | 149 | -32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 27 | AAA | Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders | — | 315 | 279 | 68 | 13 | 4 | 4 | 30 | 52 | 2 | 15 | 2 | 244 | 322 | 362 | 684 | 118 | 283 | 17 | 10 | 306 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 28 | MLB | Milwaukee Brewers | — | 91 | 85 | 22 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 16 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 259 | 276 | 424 | 699 | 165 | 279 | 18 | 2 | 294 | 86 | -1 | +0 | +0 | +2 | +2 | 0.3 |
| 2026 | 28 | AAA | Sugar Land Space Cowboys | — | 88 | 75 | 15 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 22 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 200 | 302 | 267 | 569 | 67 | 283 | 25 | 9 | 264 | 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MLB Career | — | — | 158 | 149 | 30 | 7 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 26 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 201 | 217 | 329 | 546 | 128 | 211 | 16 | 2 | 232 | 43 | -11 | +1 | -1 | +3 | +3 | -0.5 | ||
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2019 | 21 | AA MLE | Mississippi Braves | — | 52 | 47 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 14 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 191 | 255 | 191 | 446 | 249 | 27 | 6 | 204 | 24 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2019 | 21 | A MLE | Rome Braves | — | 226 | 208 | 53 | 13 | 2 | 3 | 14 | 39 | 3 | 11 | 3 | 255 | 311 | 380 | 691 | 125 | 295 | 17 | 6 | 297 | 87 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 23 | AA MLE | Mississippi Braves | — | 344 | 331 | 68 | 12 | 3 | 11 | 11 | 92 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 205 | 235 | 360 | 595 | 154 | 250 | 27 | 3 | 253 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | AAA MLE | Gwinnett Stripers | — | 307 | 284 | 64 | 12 | 2 | 5 | 17 | 68 | 2 | 9 | 0 | 225 | 274 | 335 | 608 | 109 | 270 | 22 | 6 | 267 | 67 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | AAA MLE | Gwinnett Stripers | — | 526 | 486 | 102 | 25 | 3 | 12 | 27 | 124 | 7 | 27 | 1 | 210 | 262 | 348 | 609 | 138 | 248 | 24 | 5 | 264 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 26 | MLB MLE | Chicago White Sox | — | 67 | 64 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 125 | 138 | 203 | 342 | 78 | 127 | 15 | 1 | 146 | -15 | -9 | +1 | -1 | +1 | +1 | -0.7 |
| 2024 | 26 | AAA MLE | Charlotte Knights | — | 33 | 33 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 121 | 121 | 152 | 273 | 30 | 171 | 24 | 0 | 121 | -32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 27 | AAA MLE | Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders | — | 315 | 290 | 59 | 10 | 4 | 3 | 19 | 64 | 2 | 15 | 2 | 203 | 257 | 297 | 554 | 93 | 244 | 20 | 6 | 243 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 28 | MLB MLE | Milwaukee Brewers | — | 91 | 85 | 22 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 16 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 259 | 276 | 424 | 699 | 165 | 279 | 18 | 2 | 296 | 86 | -1 | +0 | +0 | +2 | +2 | 0.3 |
| 2026 | 28 | AAA MLE | Sugar Land Space Cowboys | — | 88 | 78 | 13 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 26 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 167 | 244 | 218 | 462 | 51 | 246 | 30 | 6 | 213 | 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 21 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 278 | 255 | 62 | 13 | 2 | 3 | 17 | 53 | 4 | 13 | 3 | 243 | 301 | 345 | 646 | 102 | 294 | 19 | 6 | 280 | 75 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 21 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 278 | 247 | 74 | 18 | 2 | 3 | 25 | 40 | 4 | 13 | 3 | 300 | 373 | 425 | 798 | 126 | 345 | 14 | 9 | 357 | 75 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 23 | AA MLE | Mississippi Braves | — | 344 | 331 | 68 | 12 | 3 | 11 | 11 | 92 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 205 | 235 | 360 | 595 | 154 | 250 | 27 | 3 | 253 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 23 | AA RAW | Mississippi Braves | — | 344 | 324 | 74 | 14 | 3 | 12 | 17 | 75 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 228 | 270 | 401 | 672 | 173 | 262 | 22 | 5 | 296 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | AAA MLE | Gwinnett Stripers | — | 307 | 284 | 64 | 12 | 2 | 5 | 17 | 68 | 2 | 9 | 0 | 225 | 274 | 335 | 608 | 109 | 274 | 22 | 6 | 267 | 67 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | AAA RAW | Gwinnett Stripers | — | 307 | 278 | 72 | 14 | 2 | 7 | 23 | 57 | 2 | 9 | 0 | 259 | 320 | 399 | 719 | 140 | 298 | 19 | 7 | 318 | 67 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | AAA MLE | Gwinnett Stripers | — | 526 | 486 | 102 | 25 | 3 | 12 | 27 | 124 | 7 | 27 | 1 | 210 | 262 | 348 | 609 | 138 | 253 | 24 | 5 | 264 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | AAA RAW | Gwinnett Stripers | — | 526 | 474 | 111 | 28 | 3 | 16 | 39 | 104 | 7 | 27 | 1 | 234 | 302 | 407 | 709 | 173 | 264 | 20 | 7 | 312 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 26 | MLB MLE | 2 teams | — | 100 | 97 | 12 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 18 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 124 | 133 | 186 | 318 | 62 | 138 | 18 | 1 | 138 | -20 | -14 | +0 | -1 | +1 | +2 | -1.2 |
| 2024 | 26 | MLB RAW | 2 teams | — | 100 | 97 | 13 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 134 | 143 | 196 | 339 | 62 | 148 | 17 | 1 | 148 | -20 | -14 | +0 | -1 | +1 | +2 | -1.2 |
| 2025 | 27 | AAA MLE | Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders | — | 315 | 290 | 59 | 10 | 4 | 3 | 19 | 64 | 2 | 15 | 2 | 203 | 257 | 297 | 554 | 93 | 248 | 20 | 6 | 243 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 27 | AAA RAW | Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders | — | 315 | 279 | 68 | 13 | 4 | 4 | 30 | 52 | 2 | 15 | 2 | 244 | 322 | 362 | 684 | 118 | 283 | 17 | 10 | 306 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 28 | MLB MLE | 2 teams | — | 179 | 163 | 35 | 9 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 42 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 215 | 260 | 325 | 585 | 110 | 267 | 23 | 4 | 255 | 59 | -9 | +1 | +0 | +2 | +4 | -0.2 |
| 2026 | 28 | MLB RAW | 2 teams | — | 179 | 160 | 37 | 10 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 38 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 231 | 289 | 350 | 639 | 119 | 281 | 21 | 6 | 279 | 59 | -9 | +1 | +0 | +2 | +4 | -0.2 |
| 2019 | 21 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 278 | 255 | 62 | 13 | 2 | 3 | 17 | 53 | 4 | 13 | 3 | 243 | 301 | 345 | 646 | 102 | 286 | 19 | 6 | 280 | 75 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 23 | AA MLE | Mississippi Braves | — | 344 | 328 | 68 | 12 | 3 | 11 | 11 | 92 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 207 | 235 | 363 | 598 | 155 | 250 | 27 | 3 | 253 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | AAA MLE | Gwinnett Stripers | — | 307 | 285 | 64 | 12 | 2 | 5 | 17 | 68 | 2 | 9 | 0 | 225 | 274 | 333 | 607 | 109 | 270 | 22 | 6 | 267 | 67 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | AAA MLE | Gwinnett Stripers | — | 526 | 487 | 102 | 25 | 3 | 12 | 27 | 124 | 7 | 27 | 1 | 209 | 262 | 347 | 609 | 138 | 248 | 24 | 5 | 264 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 26 | MLB MLE | 2 teams | — | 100 | 99 | 12 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 18 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 121 | 133 | 182 | 314 | 61 | 142 | 18 | 1 | 138 | -20 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 27 | AAA MLE | Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders | — | 315 | 291 | 59 | 10 | 4 | 3 | 19 | 64 | 2 | 15 | 2 | 203 | 257 | 296 | 553 | 93 | 244 | 20 | 6 | 243 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 28 | MLB MLE | 2 teams | — | 179 | 167 | 35 | 9 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 42 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 210 | 260 | 317 | 577 | 108 | 263 | 23 | 4 | 255 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 26 | MLB MLE | 2 teams | — | 100 | 99 | 12 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 18 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 121 | 133 | 182 | 314 | 61 | 142 | 18 | 1 | 138 | -20 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 27 | AAA MLE | Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders | — | 315 | 291 | 59 | 10 | 4 | 3 | 19 | 64 | 2 | 15 | 2 | 203 | 257 | 296 | 553 | 93 | 244 | 20 | 6 | 243 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 28 | MLB MLE | 2 teams | — | 179 | 167 | 35 | 9 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 42 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 210 | 260 | 317 | 577 | 108 | 263 | 23 | 4 | 255 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB MLE | MIL | 100% | 229 | 214 | 43 | 9 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 49 | 2 | 7 | 2 | 203 | 250 | 297 | 548 | 94 | 248 | 21 | 5 | 246 | 53 | -13 | +1 | -1 | +2 | +5 | -0.3 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB CTX | MIL | 100% | 142 | 133 | 27 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 31 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 200 | 248 | 293 | 541 | 93 | 244 | 22 | 5 | 244 | 53 | -8 | +0 | -0 | +2 | +3 | -0.3 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 30 | MLB MLE | MIL | 65% | 188 | 174 | 35 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 41 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 202 | 251 | 296 | 546 | 93 | 249 | 22 | 5 | 246 | 53 | -11 | +1 | -3 | +2 | +4 | -0.7 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB CTX | MIL | 65% | 122 | 114 | 23 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 27 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 199 | 248 | 292 | 540 | 92 | 244 | 22 | 5 | 243 | 53 | -7 | +0 | -2 | +1 | +3 | -0.4 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 280 | 263 | 53 | 11 | 1 | 6 | 9 | 53 | 1 | 9 | 2 | 202 | 231 | 319 | 550 | 118 | 225 | 19 | 3 | 237 | 58 | -18 | +1 | -3 | +4 | +6 | -0.9 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 611 | 123 | 26 | 2 | 14 | 21 | 123 | 2 | 21 | 5 | 201 | 231 | 319 | 550 | 118 | 224 | 19 | 3 | 237 | 58 | -41 | +2 | -7 | +10 | +14 | -2.2 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 2379 | 2213 | 465 | 97 | 16 | 42 | 116 | 533 | 23 | 86 | 12 | 210 | 257 | 325 | 582 | 115 | 255 | 22 | 5 | 253 | 58 | -29 | +2 | -4 | +7 | +11 | -1.5 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 605 | 127 | 27 | 4 | 11 | 32 | 146 | 6 | 23 | 3 | 210 | 257 | 322 | 579 | 112 | 256 | 22 | 5 | 253 | 58 | -39 | +2 | -6 | +9 | +14 | -2.0 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 AAASugar Land Space Cowboys · 88 PAwOBA .253 → .213 (−41)K% 25.0% → 30.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.00% | ÷1.000 | ×1.200 | — | — | 30.00% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.95% | ÷1.000 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.982 | 5.39% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.41% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.982 | 3.15% |
| Singles /BIP | 18.87% | ÷1.000 | ×0.930 | ×0.988 | ×0.982 | 17.03% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.43% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | ×0.988 | ×0.982 | 7.60% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.970 | ×0.988 | ×0.982 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.982 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 27.2 → −1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.988.
Result: wOBA .253 → .213; ISO .067 → .055; BABIP .283 → .246. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AAAScranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders · 315 PAwOBA .301 → .243 (−58)K% 16.5% → 20.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 16.51% | ÷0.979 | ×1.200 | — | — | 20.24% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.52% | ÷1.078 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.992 | 6.05% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.63% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.992 | 0.59% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.70% | ÷1.008 | ×0.930 | ×0.965 | ×0.992 | 18.29% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.73% | ÷1.020 | ×0.830 | ×0.965 | ×0.992 | 4.46% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.76% | ÷0.944 | ×0.970 | ×0.965 | ×0.992 | 1.73% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.76% | ÷1.070 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.992 | 1.14% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 114, 1B 102, 2B 104, 3B 89, K 96, BB 116 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.965.
Result: wOBA .301 → .243; ISO .118 → .094; BABIP .283 → .244. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AAACharlotte Knights · 33 PAwOBA .144 → .121 (−24)K% 21.2% → 25.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 21.21% | ÷0.991 | ×1.200 | — | — | 25.68% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 0.00% | ÷1.025 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.003 | 0.00% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.003 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 15.38% | ÷1.033 | ×0.930 | — | ×1.003 | 13.89% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.85% | ÷0.994 | ×0.830 | — | ×1.003 | 3.22% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.049 | ×0.970 | — | ×1.003 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.016 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.003 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 103, 1B 107, 2B 99, 3B 110, K 98, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .144 → .121; ISO .030 → .024; BABIP .192 → .171. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AAAGwinnett Stripers · 526 PAwOBA .308 → .264 (−44)K% 19.8% → 23.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 19.77% | ÷1.005 | ×1.200 | — | — | 23.62% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.41% | ÷0.997 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.018 | 5.22% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.33% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.018 | 1.27% |
| Singles /BIP | 17.30% | ÷0.968 | ×0.930 | ×0.995 | ×1.018 | 16.82% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.57% | ÷0.933 | ×0.830 | ×0.995 | ×1.018 | 6.82% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.81% | ÷0.999 | ×0.970 | ×0.995 | ×1.018 | 0.80% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.32% | ÷0.984 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.018 | 3.13% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 97, 1B 94, 2B 87, 3B 100, K 101, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.995.
Result: wOBA .308 → .264; ISO .173 → .138; BABIP .264 → .248. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 AAAGwinnett Stripers · 307 PAwOBA .314 → .267 (−47)K% 18.6% → 22.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 18.57% | ÷1.002 | ×1.200 | — | — | 22.24% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.49% | ÷0.998 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.033 | 5.35% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.65% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.033 | 0.63% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.17% | ÷1.018 | ×0.930 | ×0.983 | ×1.033 | 20.58% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.33% | ÷0.966 | ×0.830 | ×0.983 | ×1.033 | 5.53% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.90% | ÷1.150 | ×0.970 | ×0.983 | ×1.033 | 0.78% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.17% | ÷0.981 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.033 | 2.33% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 96, 1B 104, 2B 93, 3B 130, K 100, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.983.
Result: wOBA .314 → .267; ISO .140 → .112; BABIP .298 → .270. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 AAMississippi Braves · 344 PAwOBA .288 → .253 (−35)K% 21.8% → 26.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 21.80% | ÷0.998 | ×1.220 | — | — | 26.66% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 4.94% | ÷1.106 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.012 | 3.12% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.58% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×1.012 | 0.50% |
| Singles /BIP | 18.07% | ÷1.023 | ×0.940 | ×1.038 | ×1.012 | 17.45% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.62% | ÷0.999 | ×0.870 | ×1.038 | ×1.012 | 5.14% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.20% | ÷0.900 | ×0.920 | ×1.038 | ×1.012 | 1.29% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.82% | ÷0.861 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.012 | 4.42% |
Factors used: level-wide AA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 72, 1B 105, 2B 100, 3B 80, K 100, BB 121 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.038.
Result: wOBA .288 → .253; ISO .173 → .155; BABIP .262 → .250. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2019 ARome Braves · 226 PAwOBA .375 → .297 (−78)K% 12.8% → 17.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 12.83% | ÷1.001 | ×1.340 | — | — | 17.19% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.29% | ÷0.982 | ×0.660 | — | — | 6.25% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.33% | — | ×0.770 | — | — | 1.02% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.84% | ÷1.007 | ×0.920 | ×0.950 | — | 20.70% |
| Doubles /BIP | 10.47% | ÷1.080 | ×0.820 | ×0.950 | — | 7.55% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.16% | ÷1.150 | ×0.940 | ×0.950 | — | 0.90% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.74% | ÷0.851 | ×0.820 | — | — | 1.68% |
Factors used: league row SAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 70, 1B 101, 2B 116, 3B 130, K 100, BB 96 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.0 → +0.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .375 → .297; ISO .154 → .122; BABIP .359 → .295. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2019 AAMississippi Braves · 52 PAwOBA .241 → .204 (−36)K% 21.2% → 26.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 21.15% | ÷0.975 | ×1.220 | — | — | 26.46% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.69% | ÷0.967 | ×0.680 | — | ×1.042 | 5.63% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.92% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×1.042 | 1.68% |
| Singles /BIP | 28.57% | ÷1.068 | ×0.920 | — | ×1.042 | 25.63% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.906 | ×0.910 | — | ×1.042 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.880 | — | ×1.042 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.042 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 80, 1B 114, 2B 81, 3B 80, K 95, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 24.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .241 → .204; ISO .000 → .000; BABIP .278 → .249. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).