Stephen Scott
OF Toledo Mud Hens| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 26 | AAA/AABOS | 403 | .235/.352/.462 | 19 | 6 | 75 | — | .193/.279/.344 |
| 2024 | 27 | AAA/AA/A+DET | 303 | .283/.355/.472 | 9 | 9 | 84 | — | .235/.294/.384 |
| 2025 | 28 | AAADET | 64 | .138/.219/.224 | 1 | 2 | 3 | — | .119/.188/.203 |
| 2027PROJ10% MLB | 30 | MLBDET | 10 | .213/.279/.346 | 0 | 0 | 79 | -0.0 | |
| 2028PROJ27% MLB | 31 | MLBDET | 27 | .211/.276/.339 | 1 | 0 | 76 | -0.1 |
Tools · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 24 | A+ | Greenville Drive | — | 165 | 142 | 48 | 12 | 1 | 8 | 23 | 32 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 338 | 430 | 606 | 1.036 | 268 | 392 | 19 | 14 | 449 | 122 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 24 | A | Salem Red Sox | — | 257 | 212 | 55 | 17 | 0 | 8 | 39 | 46 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 259 | 384 | 453 | 837 | 193 | 294 | 18 | 15 | 373 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 25 | AA | Portland Sea Dogs | — | 256 | 206 | 49 | 11 | 1 | 7 | 43 | 50 | 3 | 7 | 1 | 238 | 377 | 403 | 780 | 165 | 275 | 20 | 17 | 350 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 25 | A+ | Greenville Drive | — | 154 | 128 | 24 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 23 | 28 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 188 | 311 | 336 | 647 | 148 | 210 | 18 | 15 | 292 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 25 | INTL | Scottsdale Scorpions | — | 66 | 57 | 17 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 9 | 11 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 298 | 394 | 614 | 1.008 | 316 | 293 | 17 | 14 | 434 | 180 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 26 | AAA | Worcester Red Sox | — | 254 | 215 | 49 | 11 | 1 | 13 | 35 | 51 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 228 | 341 | 470 | 811 | 242 | 235 | 20 | 14 | 356 | 73 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 26 | AA | Portland Sea Dogs | — | 149 | 125 | 31 | 5 | 1 | 6 | 24 | 34 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 248 | 369 | 448 | 817 | 200 | 294 | 23 | 16 | 365 | 79 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 27 | AAA | Toledo Mud Hens | — | 175 | 161 | 47 | 14 | 1 | 4 | 11 | 41 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 292 | 341 | 466 | 807 | 174 | 364 | 23 | 6 | 352 | 75 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 27 | AA | Erie SeaWolves | — | 111 | 94 | 27 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 12 | 24 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 287 | 385 | 521 | 907 | 234 | 328 | 22 | 11 | 392 | 109 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 27 | A+ | West Michigan Whitecaps | — | 17 | 14 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 143 | 294 | 214 | 508 | 71 | 200 | 24 | 6 | 256 | 17 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 28 | AAA | Toledo Mud Hens | — | 64 | 58 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 19 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 138 | 219 | 224 | 443 | 86 | 184 | 30 | 6 | 209 | 3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 24 | A+ MLE | Greenville Drive | — | 165 | 150 | 40 | 9 | 1 | 7 | 15 | 43 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 267 | 333 | 480 | 813 | 213 | 327 | 26 | 9 | 349 | 122 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 24 | A MLE | Salem Red Sox | — | 257 | 227 | 46 | 13 | 0 | 7 | 24 | 64 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 203 | 290 | 352 | 643 | 150 | 243 | 25 | 9 | 286 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 25 | AA MLE | Portland Sea Dogs | — | 256 | 220 | 46 | 9 | 1 | 6 | 29 | 61 | 3 | 7 | 1 | 209 | 310 | 341 | 650 | 132 | 247 | 24 | 11 | 287 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 25 | A+ MLE | Greenville Drive | — | 154 | 137 | 21 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 14 | 35 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 153 | 232 | 277 | 509 | 124 | 169 | 23 | 9 | 222 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 26 | AAA MLE | Worcester Red Sox | — | 254 | 225 | 41 | 7 | 1 | 9 | 25 | 60 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 182 | 270 | 342 | 612 | 160 | 203 | 24 | 10 | 276 | 73 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 26 | AA MLE | Portland Sea Dogs | — | 149 | 133 | 28 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 16 | 41 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 211 | 295 | 346 | 641 | 135 | 268 | 28 | 11 | 285 | 79 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 27 | AAA MLE | Toledo Mud Hens | — | 175 | 164 | 38 | 11 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 48 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 232 | 272 | 366 | 638 | 134 | 299 | 27 | 5 | 279 | 75 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 27 | AA MLE | Erie SeaWolves | — | 111 | 98 | 25 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 8 | 29 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 255 | 330 | 439 | 769 | 184 | 299 | 26 | 7 | 329 | 109 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 27 | A+ MLE | West Michigan Whitecaps | — | 17 | 14 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 143 | 294 | 214 | 508 | 71 | 173 | 29 | 6 | 194 | 17 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 28 | AAA MLE | Toledo Mud Hens | — | 64 | 59 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 21 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 119 | 188 | 203 | 391 | 85 | 170 | 33 | 5 | 173 | 3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 24 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 422 | 377 | 86 | 22 | 1 | 14 | 39 | 107 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 228 | 307 | 403 | 710 | 175 | 279 | 25 | 9 | 311 | 96 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 24 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 422 | 354 | 103 | 29 | 1 | 16 | 62 | 78 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 291 | 402 | 514 | 917 | 223 | 332 | 18 | 15 | 403 | 96 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 25 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 476 | 417 | 77 | 18 | 2 | 10 | 49 | 112 | 3 | 10 | 2 | 185 | 275 | 309 | 584 | 125 | 222 | 24 | 10 | 263 | 64 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 25 | AA RAW | 3 teams | — | 476 | 391 | 90 | 20 | 3 | 15 | 75 | 89 | 3 | 10 | 2 | 230 | 358 | 412 | 770 | 182 | 255 | 19 | 16 | 343 | 64 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 26 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 403 | 358 | 69 | 11 | 2 | 14 | 41 | 101 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 193 | 279 | 352 | 631 | 159 | 224 | 25 | 10 | 279 | 75 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 26 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 403 | 340 | 80 | 16 | 2 | 19 | 59 | 85 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 235 | 352 | 462 | 813 | 226 | 256 | 21 | 15 | 359 | 75 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 27 | AAA MLE | 3 teams | — | 303 | 277 | 66 | 16 | 2 | 8 | 16 | 82 | 6 | 9 | 2 | 238 | 294 | 397 | 691 | 159 | 304 | 27 | 5 | 293 | 84 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 27 | AAA RAW | 3 teams | — | 303 | 269 | 76 | 20 | 2 | 9 | 24 | 69 | 6 | 9 | 2 | 283 | 355 | 472 | 827 | 190 | 344 | 23 | 8 | 361 | 84 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 28 | AAA MLE | Toledo Mud Hens | — | 64 | 59 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 21 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 119 | 188 | 203 | 391 | 85 | 162 | 33 | 5 | 173 | 3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 28 | AAA RAW | Toledo Mud Hens | — | 64 | 58 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 19 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 138 | 219 | 224 | 443 | 86 | 184 | 30 | 6 | 209 | 3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 24 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 422 | 376 | 86 | 22 | 1 | 14 | 39 | 107 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 229 | 307 | 404 | 711 | 176 | 276 | 25 | 9 | 311 | 96 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 25 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 476 | 421 | 77 | 18 | 2 | 10 | 49 | 112 | 3 | 10 | 2 | 183 | 275 | 306 | 581 | 124 | 218 | 24 | 10 | 263 | 64 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 26 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 403 | 357 | 69 | 11 | 2 | 14 | 41 | 101 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 193 | 279 | 353 | 632 | 160 | 227 | 25 | 10 | 279 | 75 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 27 | AAA MLE | 3 teams | — | 303 | 278 | 66 | 16 | 2 | 8 | 16 | 82 | 6 | 9 | 2 | 237 | 294 | 396 | 690 | 158 | 292 | 27 | 5 | 293 | 84 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 28 | AAA MLE | Toledo Mud Hens | — | 64 | 59 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 21 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 119 | 188 | 203 | 391 | 85 | 170 | 33 | 5 | 173 | 3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 27 | AAA MLE | 3 teams | — | 303 | 278 | 66 | 16 | 2 | 8 | 16 | 82 | 6 | 9 | 2 | 237 | 294 | 396 | 690 | 158 | 292 | 27 | 5 | 293 | 84 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 28 | AAA MLE | Toledo Mud Hens | — | 64 | 59 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 21 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 119 | 188 | 203 | 391 | 85 | 170 | 33 | 5 | 173 | 3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 30 | MLB MLE | DET | 10% | 200 | 181 | 40 | 8 | 1 | 5 | 14 | 52 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 217 | 283 | 354 | 637 | 137 | 273 | 26 | 7 | 285 | 79 | -5 | +0 | +0 | -1 | +4 | 0.0 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 30 | MLB CTX | DET | 10% | 10 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 213 | 279 | 346 | 625 | 133 | 269 | 30 | 10 | 280 | 79 | -0 | +0 | +0 | -0 | +0 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 31 | MLB MLE | DET | 27% | 97 | 89 | 19 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 26 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 214 | 280 | 347 | 627 | 133 | 271 | 27 | 7 | 281 | 76 | -3 | +0 | -3 | -1 | +2 | -0.4 |
| 2028 | 31 | MLB CTX | DET | 27% | 27 | 25 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 211 | 276 | 339 | 615 | 128 | 267 | 26 | 7 | 276 | 76 | -1 | +0 | -1 | -0 | +1 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 27 | 25 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 200 | 259 | 360 | 619 | 160 | 235 | 26 | 7 | 276 | 76 | -1 | +0 | -1 | -0 | +1 | -0.1 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 602 | 120 | 24 | 0 | 24 | 48 | 169 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 199 | 258 | 359 | 617 | 159 | 235 | 26 | 7 | 276 | 76 | -18 | +0 | -19 | -4 | +14 | -2.7 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 1870 | 1673 | 346 | 75 | 10 | 52 | 162 | 476 | 19 | 33 | 8 | 207 | 284 | 357 | 641 | 150 | 253 | 25 | 9 | 281 | 76 | -5 | +0 | -3 | -1 | +4 | -0.5 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 582 | 120 | 26 | 3 | 18 | 56 | 165 | 7 | 11 | 3 | 206 | 284 | 354 | 638 | 148 | 252 | 25 | 9 | 281 | 76 | -17 | +1 | -9 | -4 | +14 | -1.6 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2025 AAAToledo Mud Hens · 64 PAwOBA .204 → .173 (−31)K% 29.7% → 33.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 29.69% | ÷1.073 | ×1.200 | — | — | 33.20% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.25% | ÷0.988 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.992 | 4.33% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.12% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.992 | 2.91% |
| Singles /BIP | 15.38% | ÷0.993 | ×0.930 | ×0.978 | ×0.992 | 13.97% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.953 | ×0.830 | ×0.978 | ×0.992 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.56% | ÷0.905 | ×0.970 | ×0.978 | ×0.992 | 2.66% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.56% | ÷0.872 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.992 | 2.04% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 74, 1B 99, 2B 91, 3B 81, K 115, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.978.
Result: wOBA .204 → .173; ISO .086 → .075; BABIP .184 → .170. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AAAToledo Mud Hens · 175 PAwOBA .347 → .279 (−67)K% 23.4% → 27.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 23.43% | ÷1.022 | ×1.200 | — | — | 27.52% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.29% | ÷1.016 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.003 | 4.28% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.57% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.003 | 0.54% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.33% | ÷1.117 | ×0.930 | ×1.002 | ×1.003 | 19.52% |
| Doubles /BIP | 11.67% | ÷1.049 | ×0.830 | ×1.002 | ×1.003 | 9.28% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.83% | ÷1.070 | ×0.970 | ×1.002 | ×1.003 | 0.76% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.33% | ÷0.792 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.003 | 2.95% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 58, 1B 123, 2B 110, 3B 114, K 104, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.002.
Result: wOBA .347 → .279; ISO .174 → .145; BABIP .364 → .299. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AAErie SeaWolves · 111 PAwOBA .388 → .329 (−59)K% 21.6% → 26.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 21.62% | ÷1.009 | ×1.220 | — | — | 26.14% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.81% | ÷1.086 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.978 | 6.82% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.70% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.978 | 2.25% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.86% | ÷0.992 | ×0.970 | ×0.997 | ×0.978 | 21.79% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.14% | ÷1.036 | ×0.860 | ×0.997 | ×0.978 | 5.78% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.43% | ÷0.945 | ×0.950 | ×0.997 | ×0.978 | 1.40% |
| Home runs /BIP | 7.14% | ÷0.941 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.978 | 5.79% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 88, 1B 98, 2B 107, 3B 89, K 102, BB 117 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 24.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.997.
Result: wOBA .388 → .329; ISO .234 → .199; BABIP .328 → .299. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 A+West Michigan Whitecaps · 17 PAwOBA .251 → .194 (−56)K% 23.5% → 31.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 23.53% | ÷0.957 | ×1.270 | — | — | 31.24% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.88% | ÷1.026 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.958 | 3.90% |
| HBP% /PA | 11.76% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×0.958 | 8.90% |
| Singles /BIP | 10.00% | ÷1.021 | ×0.920 | — | ×0.958 | 8.63% |
| Doubles /BIP | 10.00% | ÷0.892 | ×0.810 | — | ×0.958 | 8.70% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.850 | — | ×0.958 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.889 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.958 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 78, 1B 104, 2B 78, 3B 80, K 91, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 22.8 → −4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.2 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .251 → .194; ISO .071 → .059; BABIP .200 → .173. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AAAWorcester Red Sox · 254 PAwOBA .349 → .276 (−74)K% 20.1% → 23.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.08% | ÷1.023 | ×1.200 | — | — | 23.56% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.78% | ÷0.986 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.018 | 9.82% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.79% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.018 | 0.75% |
| Singles /BIP | 14.63% | ÷0.996 | ×0.930 | ×1.027 | ×1.018 | 14.29% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.71% | ÷1.309 | ×0.830 | ×1.027 | ×1.018 | 4.45% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.61% | ÷0.905 | ×0.970 | ×1.027 | ×1.018 | 0.68% |
| Home runs /BIP | 7.93% | ÷1.008 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.018 | 5.60% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 102, 1B 99, 2B 162, 3B 81, K 105, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.027.
Result: wOBA .349 → .276; ISO .242 → .176; BABIP .235 → .203. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AAPortland Sea Dogs · 149 PAwOBA .356 → .285 (−71)K% 22.8% → 27.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 22.82% | ÷1.000 | ×1.220 | — | — | 27.84% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 16.11% | ÷1.032 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.988 | 10.79% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.88% | ÷0.972 | ×0.970 | ×0.987 | ×0.988 | 20.33% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.49% | ÷1.144 | ×0.860 | ×0.987 | ×0.988 | 4.03% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.10% | ÷0.900 | ×0.950 | ×0.987 | ×0.988 | 1.13% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.59% | ÷1.048 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.988 | 4.85% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 110, 1B 94, 2B 129, 3B 80, K 100, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 24.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.987.
Result: wOBA .356 → .285; ISO .200 → .152; BABIP .294 → .268. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 AAPortland Sea Dogs · 256 PAwOBA .346 → .287 (−59)K% 19.5% → 24.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 19.53% | ÷0.994 | ×1.220 | — | — | 23.98% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 16.41% | ÷1.026 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.998 | 11.17% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.17% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.998 | 0.99% |
| Singles /BIP | 19.23% | ÷0.983 | ×0.970 | ×0.972 | ×0.998 | 18.41% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.05% | ÷1.066 | ×0.860 | ×0.972 | ×0.998 | 5.52% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.64% | ÷1.150 | ×0.950 | ×0.972 | ×0.998 | 0.51% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.49% | ÷1.004 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.998 | 3.48% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 101, 1B 97, 2B 113, 3B 130, K 99, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.972.
Result: wOBA .346 → .287; ISO .165 → .135; BABIP .275 → .247. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 A+Greenville Drive · 154 PAwOBA .291 → .222 (−70)K% 18.2% → 22.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 18.18% | ÷1.059 | ×1.310 | — | — | 22.48% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 14.94% | ÷1.001 | ×0.600 | — | ×0.978 | 8.76% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×0.978 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 12.00% | ÷1.005 | ×0.870 | ×0.996 | ×0.978 | 10.12% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | ×0.996 | ×0.978 | 6.08% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.850 | ×0.996 | ×0.978 | 0.72% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.00% | ÷0.996 | ×0.880 | — | ×0.978 | 2.59% |
Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 99, 1B 101, 2B 100, 3B 130, K 112, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 22.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.996.
Result: wOBA .291 → .222; ISO .148 → .127; BABIP .210 → .169. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).