Josh Lester — OGILVIE

Josh Lester1B Estrellas Orientales

Age 32 L/R 6'2" / 225 lbs INTL HR -6% Svc 3.000 · Ctrl thru 2028

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 250 proj PA

wRC+†91

AVG/OBP/SLG.231 / .277 / .412

PA250

HR10

K%27

BB%5

ISO183

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · ContractCON 42 / POW 57

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2022-2023

CONTACT42

Whiff%

1415.1%

xwOBA

100.176

POWER57

Avg EV

1070.6

EYE41

Chase%

1837.9%

SPEED44

Sprint

1725.9

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Arb-1

MLB Debut 2023

Service 3.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2028

First FA Year 2029

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Arb-1	$0.1M	—	—	—
2027	Arb-2	$0.4M	—	—	—
2028	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$-3M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2015	21	ROK	2 teams	—	47	43	9	4	0	1	3	11	1	0	0	209	277	372	649	163	258	23	6	276	69	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	21	ROK	2 teams	—	47	42	12	6	0	1	4	8	1	0	0	286	362	500	862	214	333	17	9	379	149	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	22	A	West Michigan Whitecaps	—	71	69	7	0	0	0	2	31	0	1	0	101	127	101	228		184	44	3	109	-58	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	22	A	West Michigan Whitecaps	—	71	68	10	0	0	0	3	22	0	1	0	147	183	147	330		217	31	4	157	-22	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	23	A	2 teams	—	465	439	94	27	1	11	14	124	3	3	2	214	243	355	599	141	266	27	3	258	56	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	23	A	2 teams	—	465	431	117	29	2	13	22	87	3	3	2	271	311	439	750	167	307	19	5	325	107	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	24	AA	Erie SeaWolves	—	539	487	105	20	3	16	39	153	5	1	0	216	281	368	648	152	273	28	7	284	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	24	AA	Erie SeaWolves	—	539	464	120	22	3	21	61	118	5	1	0	259	350	455	805	196	297	22	11	352	128	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	25	AA	2 teams	—	530	487	87	20	1	12	29	162	2	0	0	179	228	298	526	119	231	31	5	233	36	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	25	AA	2 teams	—	530	466	105	27	1	19	50	129	2	0	0	225	303	410	713	185	261	24	9	311	96	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	27	AA	2 teams	—	432	403	82	19	3	24	25	156	3	3	2	203	255	444	699	241	259	36	6	296	85	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	27	AA	2 teams	—	432	395	104	22	5	32	33	128	3	3	2	263	325	587	912	324	305	30	8	391	157	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	28	AAA	Toledo Mud Hens	—	621	573	115	31	1	23	36	162	5	7	3	201	254	379	633	178	233	26	6	274	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	28	AAA	Toledo Mud Hens	—	621	557	137	39	2	29	51	137	5	7	3	246	314	479	794	233	271	22	8	344	121	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	29	AAA	2 teams	—	493	463	94	16	2	18	24	159	2	2	0	203	245	363	608	160	262	32	5	263	60	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	29	AAA	2 teams	—	493	454	115	21	2	23	32	129	2	2	0	253	305	460	765	207	301	26	6	333	113	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	30	AA	Northwest Arkansas Naturals	—	454	419	87	16	2	19	25	118	3	2	0	208	257	391	649	184	235	26	6	281	73	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	30	AA	Northwest Arkansas Naturals	—	454	403	106	21	2	18	40	90	3	2	0	263	333	459	792	196	291	20	9	345	122	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	31	INTL	Estrellas Orientales	—	218	182	43	11	1	6	36	39	0	1	0	236	362	407	769	170	270	18	17	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	31	INTL	Estrellas Orientales	—	218	182	43	11	1	6	36	39	0	1	0	236	362	407	769	170	270	18	17	348	125	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season
2026	32	MLB	KC	—	250	232	54	10	1	10	14	67	2	2	1	233	282	414	696	181	280	27	6	304	91	-3	+0	+0	-4	+7	-0.1
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	33	MLB	KC	22%	350	325	74	14	2	13	20	94	2	2	1	228	277	403	680	175	276	27	6	299	87	-5	+0	-4	-6	+10	-0.6
2027	33	MLB	KC	22%	75	71	16	3	0	3	4	20	0	0	0	225	267	394	661	169	272	27	5	289	79	-2	+0	-1	-1	+2	-0.2
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	98	93	20	3	0	3	5	27	0	0	0	215	255	344	599	129	270	28	5	265	61	-4	+0	-1	-10	+3	-1.3
/ 162G	—			—	650	617	133	20	0	20	33	179	0	0	0	216	255	345	601	130	270	28	5	265	61	-28	+0	-5	-67	+18	-8.4
Career	—			—	4470	4122	851	188	17	153	267	1276	28	24	9	206	259	372	631	165	255	29	6	258	56	-224	+1	-4	-67	+127	-17.0
/ 162G	—			—	650	599	123	27	2	22	39	186	4	3	1	205	259	367	626	162	254	29	6	258	56	-33	+0	-1	-10	+18	-2.5

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2015	21	A	West Michigan Whitecaps	—	21	19	3	2	0	0	2	6	0	0	0	158	238	263	501	105	231	29	10	232	36	-2	+0	—	—	+1	-0.1
2015	21	ROK	GCL Tigers	—	26	23	9	4	0	1	2	2	1	0	0	391	462	696	1.157	304	400	8	8	499	240	+4	+0	—	—	+1	0.5
2016	22	A	West Michigan Whitecaps	—	71	68	10	0	0	0	3	22	0	1	0	147	183	147	330		217	31	4	157	-22	-10	+0	—	—	+2	-0.8
2017	23	A+	Lakeland Flying Tigers	—	180	166	44	12	1	4	10	41	0	2	1	265	307	422	729	157	323	23	6	315	99	-0	+0	—	—	+5	0.5
2017	23	A	West Michigan Whitecaps	—	285	265	73	17	1	9	12	46	3	1	1	275	314	449	763	174	298	16	4	331	112	+4	-0	—	—	+8	1.2
2018	24	AA	Erie SeaWolves	—	539	464	120	22	3	21	61	118	5	1	0	259	350	455	805	196	297	22	11	352	128	+17	+0	—	—	+15	3.3
2019	25	AAA	Toledo Mud Hens	—	88	72	17	5	0	2	11	26	1	0	0	236	345	389	734	153	312	30	12	319	102	+0	+0	—	—	+2	0.3
2019	25	AA	Erie SeaWolves	—	442	394	88	22	1	17	39	103	1	0	0	223	295	414	709	190	253	23	9	309	95	-3	+0	—	—	+13	1.0
2021	27	AAA	Toledo Mud Hens	—	95	88	19	4	0	7	7	19	0	0	0	216	274	500	774	284	194	20	7	335	115	+2	+0	—	—	+3	0.4
2021	27	AA	Erie SeaWolves	—	337	307	85	18	5	25	26	109	3	3	2	277	339	612	952	336	345	32	8	407	169	+26	-0	—	—	+10	3.6
2022	28	AAA	Toledo Mud Hens	—	621	557	137	39	2	29	51	137	5	7	3	246	314	479	794	233	271	22	8	344	121	+15	+0	—	—	+18	3.3
2023	29	MLB	Baltimore Orioles	—	23	22	4	0	0	0	1	7	0	0	0	182	217	182	399		267	30	4	188	2	-3	+0	+0	-9	+1	-1.1
2023	29	AAA	Norfolk Tides	—	470	432	111	21	2	23	31	122	2	2	0	257	309	475	784	218	302	26	7	340	119	+10	+0	—	—	+13	2.4
2024	30	AA	Northwest Arkansas Naturals	—	454	403	106	21	2	18	40	90	3	2	0	263	333	459	792	196	291	20	9	345	122	+11	+0	—	—	+13	2.5
2025	31	INTL	Estrellas Orientales	—	218	182	43	11	1	6	36	39	0	1	0	236	362	407	769	170	270	18	17	348	125	+6	+0	—	—	+6	1.3
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	23	22	4	0	0	0	1	7	0	0	0	182	217	182	399		267	30	4	188	2	-3	+0	+0	-9	+1	-1.1

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Chris Heiseylast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 1,758 PA	8	1,758	62	25	238	296	413	-18	+3	3.0	3.2
	/162	664	23	9	238	296	413	-6.7	+1.0	1.1	pk7: 4
#2Nate Schierholtzlast yr '14 career totals — 8 seasons, 2,275 PA	8	2,275	52	30	253	302	405	-24	-6	2.0	2.8
	/162	664	15	9	253	302	405	-7.1	-1.8	0.6	pk7: 4
#3John Mayberry Jr.last yr '15 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,506 PA	6	1,506	54	15	234	298	417	-6	-18	1.7	1.7
	/162	664	24	7	234	298	417	-2.8	-8.1	0.8	pk7: 2
#4Jake Cavelast yr '24 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,564 PA	7	1,564	45	13	236	292	400	-11	-6	1.3	1.3
#4Jake Cavelast yr '24 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,564 PA	/162	664	19	6	236	292	400	-4.5	-2.5	0.6	pk7: 1
#5Chad Pinderlast yr '22 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,740 PA	7	1,740	62	5	242	294	417	-17	-20	0.6	0.6
	/162	664	24	2	242	294	417	-6.5	-7.6	0.2	pk7: 1
#6Dayan Viciedolast yr '14 career totals — 5 seasons, 1,798 PA	5	1,798	66	2	254	298	424	-18	-29	0.3	0.3
	/162	664	24	1	254	298	424	-6.6	-10.7	0.1	pk7: 0
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 1 projected seasons	1	325	13	3	232	276	415	-6	+0	-0.2	-0.1
	/162	664	26	5	232	276	415	-11.9	+0.3	-0.4	pk7: 0

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Josh Lester (OGILVIE)	32	42	57	44	41	231/277/412	182	280	10	2	27%	5%	91	+0.5	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Matt Clark 2019 · AAA	32	45→49	54→60	44→30	42	236/287/415	179	296	23	5	29%	6%	95	+1.4	240/299/439	199	287	25	6	25%	7%	107	+2.2	234/300/461	228	264	30	0	24%	8%	115	+1.5
✕Graham Koonce 2007 · AAA	32	40→41	55	44→30	47	218/289/396	178	266	23	4	28%	8%	92	+1.2	215/286/389	174	275	22	6	29%	8%	89	+0.9	184/266/367	183	225	24	0	30%	9%	73	-0.1
✕Daniel Palka 2023 · AAA	31	44	55	44→50	44	233/292/412	179	293	24	4	29%	8%	96	+1.5	222/276/377	155	292	20	6	30%	7%	81	+0.4	199/256/342	143	257	19	4	30%	7%	59	-0.8
●Danny Dorn 2015 · AAA	31	40→47	53→55	48→45	43	217/273/387	170	267	22	6	28%	7%	82	+0.5	269/318/434	165	330	16	7	23%	6%	112	+2.6	329/374/516	187	397	15	3	20%	5%	155	+3.3
✕Brandon Snyder 2019 · MLB	32	40→50	53→55	46→45	39	213/272/384	170	290	22	6	34%	6%	81	+0.4	199/258/374	175	305	24	5	42%	6%	73	-0.1	172/237/350	178	262	27	2	44%	5%	55	-0.8
✕Brad Eldred 2012 · MLB	32	38→40	54→65	47→45	38	209/262/384	175	267	23	10	31%	5%	77	+0.1	234/286/466	232	303	32	11	33%	6%	109	+2.4	231/284/555	324	279	48	9	37%	6%	129	+1.8
✕Jason Dubois 2010 · AAA	31	42→45	54→60	44→40	39	225/284/396	172	291	23	5	31%	6%	89	+1.0	243/301/464	221	304	31	6	30%	6%	115	+2.7	244/305/546	301	270	47	0	30%	7%	134	+1.7
✕Ryan Mulhern 2013 · AAA	32	47→48	55	43→40	39	243/293/426	183	310	23	6	30%	5%	101	+1.8	236/287/401	165	295	19	8	27%	5%	92	+1.2	229/283/414	185	264	22	3	22%	4%	94	+0.3
✕Michael Ryan 2009 · AAA	32	43→49	51→50	44→30	39	227/262/391	164	275	19	4	26%	4%	78	+0.2	231/273/366	135	273	13	5	20%	5%	75	-0.0	229/271/349	121	268	11	3	19%	5%	71	-0.2
✕Dallas McPherson 2012 · MLB	32	44	54→65	42→50	37	232/273/403	171	311	23	4	33%	5%	86	+0.8	227/274/384	157	332	20	7	36%	6%	82	+0.5	212/265/373	161	320	21	4	39%	6%	72	-0.1
✕Brad Nelson 2014 · AAA	31	43→48	50	45→50	46	224/283/378	154	269	19	4	25%	7%	84	+0.6	213/264/332	119	258	13	6	22%	6%	63	-0.9	185/232/266	81	219	9	0	20%	5%	32	-1.3
✕Paul McAnulty 2012 · MLB	31	46→50	52→60	41→40	45	238/289/404	166	277	21	4	23%	6%	92	+1.2	231/302/424	193	277	25	5	26%	9%	104	+2.0	208/298/429	221	235	30	1	27%	10%	103	+1.6
✕Patrick Kivlehan 2021 · AAA	31	41→50	57→60	44→50	40	224/284/424	200	291	26	5	32%	6%	97	+1.5	213/262/370	157	294	20	8	34%	6%	72	-0.2	185/231/326	141	255	20	6	36%	5%	46	-1.2
●Kevin Barker 2007 · MLB	32	46→47	52→55	43→40	47	238/301/412	174	297	20	5	26%	8%	100	+1.7	231/295/395	164	285	20	3	25%	8%	93	+1.3	258/324/436	178	298	19	1	20%	8%	115	+1.8
●Cory Aldridge 2010 · AAA	31	47→50	53→55	41→45	42	241/292/417	176	306	21	4	28%	6%	97	+1.5	223/272/388	165	307	21	6	33%	6%	82	+0.5	214/280/387	173	293	27	5	36%	8%	84	+0.3
✕John Rodriguez 2010 · AAA	32	44→47	50→55	40	43	225/294/380	156	283	18	3	27%	7%	89	+1.0	218/281/361	143	264	15	8	23%	6%	79	+0.3	189/267/324	135	202	10	8	12%	7%	62	-0.2
●Mike Ford 2022 · MLB	30	35→45	55	46→30	47	198/274/375	177	232	24	3	27%	8%	80	+0.4	219/301/386	167	266	21	4	26%	9%	94	+1.3	223/311/397	174	263	23	2	24%	10%	98	+0.8
✕Shelley Duncan 2012 · MLB	32	43→45	54→60	44→45	49	230/303/410	180	267	23	3	24%	8%	101	+1.8	198/269/344	146	237	18	4	24%	8%	69	-0.4	170/240/300	130	201	16	1	25%	8%	44	-1.3
✕John Mabry 2002 · MLB	31	44	52→60	45→30	44	230/297/395	165	287	20	5	27%	7%	95	+1.4	253/322/441	188	290	23	4	21%	8%	117	+2.9	267/338/465	198	300	26	1	20%	9%	119	+1.1
✕Mike Hessman 2010 · MLB	32	35→36	59→65	42→45	41	202/278/412	210	272	28	5	36%	8%	92	+1.2	200/265/390	190	258	25	4	33%	7%	80	+0.4	198/259/397	199	237	27	3	30%	7%	78	+0.2