Josh Lester — OGILVIE

Josh Lester1B Estrellas Orientales

Age 32 L/R 6'2" / 225 lbs INTL HR -15%K -8% Svc 3.000 · Ctrl thru 2028

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 250 proj PA

wRC+†86

AVG/OBP/SLG.229 / .277 / .389

PA20

HR1

K%26

BB%6

ISO162

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$0M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 46 / POW 51

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2022-2023

CONTACT46

Whiff%

1415.1%

xAVG

100.163

POWER51

Avg EV

1070.6

EYE42

Chase%

1837.9%

SPEED44

Sprint

1725.9

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Arb-1

MLB Debut 2023

Service 3.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2028

First FA Year 2029

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Arb-1	$0.0M	—	—	—
2027	Arb-2	$0.4M	—	—	—
2028	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$-0.7M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2015	21	A	West Michigan Whitecaps	—	21	19	3	2	0	0	2	6	0	0	0	158	238	263	501	105	231	29	10	232	43	-1	+0	—	—	+0	-0.1
2015	21	ROK	GCL Tigers	—	26	23	9	4	0	1	2	2	1	0	0	391	462	696	1.157	304	400	8	8	499	224	+4	+0	—	—	+1	0.4
2016	22	A	West Michigan Whitecaps	—	71	68	10	0	0	0	3	22	0	1	0	147	183	147	330		217	31	4	157	-8	-9	+0	—	—	+2	-0.8
2017	23	A+	Lakeland Flying Tigers	—	180	166	44	12	1	4	10	41	0	2	1	265	307	422	729	157	323	23	6	315	100	-0	+0	—	—	+4	0.4
2017	23	A	West Michigan Whitecaps	—	285	265	73	17	1	9	12	46	3	1	1	275	314	449	763	174	298	16	4	331	110	+3	-0	—	—	+6	1.0
2018	24	AA	Erie SeaWolves	—	539	464	120	22	3	21	61	118	5	1	0	259	350	455	805	196	297	22	11	352	125	+16	+0	—	—	+12	2.8
2019	25	AAA	Toledo Mud Hens	—	88	72	17	5	0	2	11	26	1	0	0	236	345	389	734	153	312	30	12	319	102	+0	+0	—	—	+2	0.2
2019	25	AA	Erie SeaWolves	—	442	394	88	22	1	17	39	103	1	0	0	223	295	414	709	190	253	23	9	309	95	-2	+0	—	—	+10	0.7
2021	27	AAA	Toledo Mud Hens	—	95	88	19	4	0	7	7	19	0	0	0	216	274	500	774	284	194	20	7	335	113	+1	+0	—	—	+2	0.4
2021	27	AA	Erie SeaWolves	—	337	307	85	18	5	25	26	109	3	3	2	277	339	612	952	336	345	32	8	407	161	+25	-0	—	—	+7	3.2
2022	28	AAA	Toledo Mud Hens	—	621	557	137	39	2	29	51	137	5	7	3	246	314	479	794	233	271	22	8	344	119	+14	+0	—	—	+13	2.8
2023	29	MLB	Baltimore Orioles	—	23	22	4	0	0	0	1	7	0	0	0	182	217	182	399		267	30	4	188	13	-2	+0	+0	-9	+0	-1.1
2023	29	AAA	Norfolk Tides	—	470	432	111	21	2	23	31	122	2	2	0	257	309	475	784	218	302	26	7	340	116	+9	+0	—	—	+10	2.0
2024	30	AA	Northwest Arkansas Naturals	—	454	403	106	21	2	18	40	90	3	2	0	263	333	459	792	196	291	20	9	345	120	+11	+0	—	—	+10	2.1
2025	31	INTL	Estrellas Orientales	—	218	182	43	11	1	6	36	39	0	1	0	236	362	407	769	170	270	18	17	348	122	+6	+0	—	—	+5	1.1
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	23	22	4	0	0	0	1	7	0	0	0	182	217	182	399		267	30	4	188	13	-2	+0	+0	-9	+0	-1.1
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2015	21	A MLE	West Michigan Whitecaps	—	21	20	2	1	0	0	1	8	0	0	0	100	143	150	293	50	203	38	5	167	-1	-3	+0	—	—	+0	-0.2
2015	21	ROK MLE	GCL Tigers	—	26	24	7	3	0	1	1	3	1	0	0	292	346	542	888	250	305	12	4	364	132	+1	+0	—	—	+1	0.2
2016	22	A MLE	West Michigan Whitecaps	—	71	69	7	0	0	0	2	30	0	1	0	101	127	101	228		192	42	3	112	-38	-12	+0	—	—	+2	-1.0
2017	23	A+ MLE	Lakeland Flying Tigers	—	180	170	38	12	1	2	6	58	0	2	1	224	250	341	591	118	300	32	3	247	53	-10	+0	—	—	+4	-0.6
2017	23	A MLE	West Michigan Whitecaps	—	285	269	58	13	1	8	8	64	3	1	1	216	246	361	607	145	240	22	3	261	63	-13	-0	—	—	+6	-0.7
2018	24	AA MLE	Erie SeaWolves	—	539	487	107	20	3	15	39	144	5	1	0	220	284	366	650	146	266	27	7	285	79	-13	+0	—	—	+12	-0.2
2019	25	AAA MLE	Toledo Mud Hens	—	88	77	17	5	0	2	6	30	1	0	0	221	286	364	649	143	278	34	7	284	78	-2	+0	—	—	+2	-0.0
2019	25	AA MLE	Erie SeaWolves	—	442	409	72	17	1	10	24	126	1	0	0	176	224	296	519	120	214	29	5	228	40	-31	+0	—	—	+10	-2.2
2021	27	AAA MLE	Toledo Mud Hens	—	95	90	15	3	0	5	5	23	0	0	0	167	211	367	577	200	159	24	5	235	45	-6	+0	—	—	+2	-0.4
2021	27	AA MLE	Erie SeaWolves	—	337	314	67	15	4	17	19	129	3	3	2	213	265	449	714	236	294	38	6	303	91	-4	-0	—	—	+7	0.4
2022	28	AAA MLE	Toledo Mud Hens	—	621	575	113	31	2	20	34	163	5	7	3	197	248	362	609	165	230	26	5	264	65	-26	+0	—	—	+13	-1.3
2023	29	MLB MLE	Baltimore Orioles	—	23	22	4	0	0	0	1	7	0	0	0	182	217	182	399		267	30	4	184	11	-2	+0	+0	-9	+0	-1.1
2023	29	AAA MLE	Norfolk Tides	—	470	443	90	16	2	16	21	149	2	2	0	203	242	357	599	153	257	32	4	257	60	-22	+0	—	—	+10	-1.2
2024	30	AA MLE	Northwest Arkansas Naturals	—	454	418	88	17	2	15	26	111	3	2	0	211	262	368	630	158	239	24	6	275	72	-15	+0	—	—	+10	-0.5
2015	21	ROK MLE	2 teams	—	47	43	9	4	0	1	3	11	1	0	0	209	277	372	649	163	258	23	6	276	73	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	21	ROK RAW	2 teams	—	47	42	12	6	0	1	4	8	1	0	0	286	362	500	862	214	333	17	9	379	73	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	22	A MLE	West Michigan Whitecaps	—	71	69	7	0	0	0	2	30	0	1	0	101	127	101	228		179	42	3	112	-38	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	22	A RAW	West Michigan Whitecaps	—	71	68	10	0	0	0	3	22	0	1	0	147	183	147	330		217	31	4	157	-38	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	23	A MLE	2 teams	—	465	439	94	25	1	10	14	122	3	3	2	214	243	344	587	130	267	26	3	256	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	23	A RAW	2 teams	—	465	431	117	29	2	13	22	87	3	3	2	271	311	439	750	167	307	19	5	325	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	24	AA MLE	Erie SeaWolves	—	539	487	107	20	3	15	39	144	5	1	0	220	284	366	650	146	274	27	7	285	79	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	24	AA RAW	Erie SeaWolves	—	539	464	120	22	3	21	61	118	5	1	0	259	350	455	805	196	297	22	11	352	79	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	25	AA MLE	2 teams	—	530	486	89	22	1	12	30	156	2	0	0	183	234	307	540	123	234	29	6	237	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	25	AA RAW	2 teams	—	530	466	105	27	1	19	50	129	2	0	0	225	303	410	713	185	261	24	9	311	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	27	AA MLE	2 teams	—	432	404	82	18	4	22	24	152	3	3	2	203	253	431	684	228	260	35	6	288	81	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	27	AA RAW	2 teams	—	432	395	104	22	5	32	33	128	3	3	2	263	325	587	912	324	305	30	8	391	81	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	28	AAA MLE	Toledo Mud Hens	—	621	575	113	31	2	20	34	163	5	7	3	197	248	362	609	165	233	26	5	264	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	28	AAA RAW	Toledo Mud Hens	—	621	557	137	39	2	29	51	137	5	7	3	246	314	479	794	233	271	22	8	344	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	29	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	493	465	94	16	2	16	22	156	2	2	0	202	241	348	590	146	263	32	4	254	58	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	29	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	493	454	115	21	2	23	32	129	2	2	0	253	305	460	765	207	301	26	6	333	58	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	30	AA MLE	Northwest Arkansas Naturals	—	454	418	88	17	2	15	26	111	3	2	0	211	262	368	630	158	244	24	6	275	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	30	AA RAW	Northwest Arkansas Naturals	—	454	403	106	21	2	18	40	90	3	2	0	263	333	459	792	196	291	20	9	345	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	31	INTL MLE	Estrellas Orientales	—	218	182	43	11	1	6	36	39	0	1	0	236	362	407	769	170	270	18	17	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	31	INTL RAW	Estrellas Orientales	—	218	182	43	11	1	6	36	39	0	1	0	236	362	407	769	170	270	18	17	348	122	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	21	ROK MLE	2 teams	—	47	43	9	4	0	1	3	11	1	0	0	209	277	372	649	163	259	23	6	276	73	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	22	A MLE	West Michigan Whitecaps	—	71	69	7	0	0	0	2	30	0	1	0	101	127	101	228		192	42	3	112	-38	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	23	A MLE	2 teams	—	465	445	94	25	1	10	14	122	3	3	2	211	243	339	583	128	263	26	3	256	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	24	AA MLE	Erie SeaWolves	—	539	490	107	20	3	15	39	144	5	1	0	218	284	363	648	145	266	27	7	285	79	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	25	AA MLE	2 teams	—	530	493	89	22	1	12	30	156	2	0	0	181	234	302	536	122	225	29	6	237	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	27	AA MLE	2 teams	—	432	402	82	18	4	22	24	152	3	3	2	204	253	433	686	229	264	35	6	288	81	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	28	AAA MLE	Toledo Mud Hens	—	621	577	113	31	2	20	34	163	5	7	3	196	248	360	608	165	230	26	5	264	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	29	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	493	466	94	16	2	16	22	156	2	2	0	202	241	348	589	146	257	32	4	254	58	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	30	AA MLE	Northwest Arkansas Naturals	—	454	422	88	17	2	15	26	111	3	2	0	209	262	365	627	156	239	24	6	275	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	29	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	493	466	94	16	2	16	22	156	2	2	0	202	241	348	589	146	257	32	4	254	58	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	30	AA MLE	Northwest Arkansas Naturals	—	454	422	88	17	2	15	26	111	3	2	0	209	262	365	627	156	239	24	6	275	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 season
2026	32	MLB MLE	KC	0%	20	19	5	1	0	1	1	5	0	0	0	263	300	474	774	211	280	25	5	296	86	-0	+0	+0	-0	+0	-0.2
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	33	MLB MLE	KC	22%	350	325	74	14	2	11	20	90	2	2	1	228	277	385	661	157	277	26	6	291	83	-7	+0	-4	-6	+8	-1.0
2027	33	MLB CTX	KC	22%	75	71	15	3	0	2	4	19	0	0	0	211	253	338	591	127	273	25	5	280	83	-2	+0	-1	-1	+2	-0.2
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	98	93	19	3	0	2	5	26	0	0	0	204	245	301	546	97	262	27	5	258	56	-4	+0	-1	-10	+2	-1.3
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	617	126	20	0	13	33	172	0	0	0	204	245	300	544	96	262	26	5	258	56	-26	+0	-5	-67	+14	-8.6
Career	—	MLE		—	4240	3912	805	179	18	129	251	1179	26	22	8	206	258	360	618	154	255	28	6	251	56	-10	+0	-4	-15	+9	-2.1
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	600	123	27	3	20	38	181	4	3	1	205	257	360	617	155	254	28	6	251	56	-16	+0	-7	-25	+14	-3.5

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Chris Heiseylast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 1,758 PA	2.6	1,758	62	25	238	296	413	-18	+3	3.0	3.2
/162	664	23	9	-6.7	+1.0	1.1	pk7: 4
#2Jake Cavelast yr '24 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,564 PA	2.4	1,564	45	13	236	292	400	-11	-6	1.3	1.3
/162	664	19	6	-4.5	-2.5	0.6	pk7: 1
#3Chad Pinderlast yr '22 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,740 PA	2.6	1,740	62	5	242	294	417	-17	-20	0.6	0.6
/162	664	24	2	-6.5	-7.6	0.2	pk7: 1
#4Dayan Viciedolast yr '14 career totals — 5 seasons, 1,798 PA	2.7	1,798	66	2	254	298	424	-18	-29	0.3	0.3
/162	664	24	1	-6.6	-10.7	0.1	pk7: 0
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 1 projected seasons	0.5	325	11	3	231	276	392	-6	+0	-0.4	-0.2
/162	664	22	5	-11.9	+0.3	-0.8	pk7: 0
#5Brennan Boeschlast yr '15 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,713 PA	2.6	1,713	48	22	250	303	400	-17	-35	-1.1	-1.1
/162	664	19	9	-6.6	-13.6	-0.4	pk7: -1
#6Domonic Brownlast yr '15 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,748 PA	2.6	1,748	54	23	246	305	405	-19	-39	-1.1	-1.1
/162	664	21	9	-7.1	-14.7	-0.4	pk7: -1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Josh Lester (OGILVIE)	32	46	51	44	42	229/277/389	160	280	8	2	26%	6%	86	+0.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Matt Clark 2019 · AAA	32	45	51→55	44→30	42	231/283/388	157	295	19	5	28%	7%	88	+0.4	240/303/434	194	291	24	6	26%	8%	106	+1.8	233/301/455	222	268	29	0	25%	8%	112	+1.2
✕Brad Nelson 2014 · AAA	31	43→49	50	45→50	46	223/282/374	151	269	19	4	25%	7%	84	+0.2	214/269/333	119	261	13	6	23%	7%	70	-0.9	187/238/264	78	223	8	0	20%	6%	42	-1.3
✕Baltazar Lopez 2015 · AAA	31	46	50	42→45	41	235/287/387	152	310	18	5	30%	6%	89	+0.5	223/287/321	98	351	9	7	36%	7%	73	-0.6	212/284/257	45	372	4	2	40%	8%	59	-0.3
✕Michael Ryan 2009 · AAA	32	43→49	50	44→30	40	224/261/380	155	274	17	4	26%	5%	77	-0.3	234/276/367	133	277	13	5	20%	6%	80	-0.2	232/275/354	121	272	11	3	19%	5%	77	-0.2
✕Christian Bethancourt 2023 · MLB	31	47→51	50→55	49→50	40	243/281/397	153	294	18	8	24%	5%	88	+0.5	217/252/366	149	272	19	7	27%	4%	71	-0.8	191/222/330	139	238	18	5	29%	4%	50	-1.0
✕Daniel Palka 2023 · AAA	31	43	52→55	44→50	46	225/287/386	161	283	21	4	28%	8%	89	+0.5	217/274/360	143	284	18	6	29%	7%	78	-0.3	195/250/321	127	251	17	4	29%	6%	56	-1.3
✕Joe Borchard 2010 · MLB	31	40→44	49→50	45	40	209/260/359	150	272	17	6	30%	6%	72	-0.7	220/272/368	148	295	16	5	30%	6%	79	-0.2	219/272/370	151	292	15	2	30%	6%	78	-0.2
✕Nate Schierholtz 2016 · MLB	32	43→53	50→55	45→50	44	221/273/377	156	254	17	8	21%	6%	82	-0.0	224/274/352	128	280	15	8	25%	6%	76	-0.4	201/227/281	80	258	11	0	27%	3%	38	-0.7
✕Graham Koonce 2007 · AAA	32	40	53→55	44→30	47	215/288/384	169	265	22	4	28%	8%	89	+0.5	212/286/374	162	275	20	6	29%	9%	86	+0.3	177/259/338	161	223	20	0	30%	9%	68	-0.5
✕Travis Ishikawa 2016 · MLB	32	47→49	46→55	47→45	44	231/297/358	128	311	14	3	29%	8%	86	+0.3	211/275/338	127	301	15	4	33%	6%	74	-0.6	188/252/302	114	270	15	0	35%	6%	56	-1.5
✕Brandon Snyder 2019 · MLB	32	41→51	50→55	46→45	39	210/269/361	151	295	18	6	35%	6%	77	-0.3	197/258/364	167	299	22	5	40%	6%	74	-0.6	171/236/342	171	253	25	2	42%	5%	58	-1.0
●Danny Dorn 2015 · AAA	31	41→47	50→55	48→45	44	216/274/368	152	271	18	6	28%	7%	80	-0.2	264/317/416	152	327	14	7	23%	6%	106	+1.8	313/361/475	162	381	12	3	20%	6%	135	+2.3
✕Cory Aldridge 2012 · AAA	33	47→49	51→55	46→45	40	239/286/401	163	318	19	6	31%	6%	92	+0.7	214/273/379	165	312	23	8	37%	7%	82	+0.0	213/279/377	164	290	25	5	35%	8%	83	+0.0
●Kevin Barker 2007 · MLB	32	46	50→55	43→40	47	234/297/392	158	295	17	5	26%	8%	94	+0.9	226/290/373	147	283	17	3	25%	8%	87	+0.4	256/325/422	166	299	17	1	20%	9%	110	+1.3
✕John Rodriguez 2010 · AAA	32	44→47	49→55	40	44	222/293/368	146	283	17	3	27%	7%	87	+0.4	217/283/355	138	265	14	8	23%	7%	80	-0.1	188/265/324	136	202	10	8	13%	7%	66	-0.3
✕Ryan Mulhern 2013 · AAA	32	48	51→55	43→40	41	245/300/410	164	312	19	6	27%	6%	99	+1.3	239/294/396	157	298	18	8	25%	5%	94	+0.9	234/285/411	178	269	21	3	22%	3%	95	+0.2
✕Paul McAnulty 2012 · MLB	31	46→50	51→55	41→40	45	237/288/396	159	279	19	4	23%	6%	91	+0.7	228/297/404	176	278	22	5	26%	8%	97	+1.1	202/288/394	192	236	25	1	26%	10%	91	+0.6
✕Chris Parmelee 2019 · AAA	31	40→50	48→50	44→45	47	206/276/342	136	271	16	6	30%	9%	74	-0.5	216/290/382	166	306	21	6	34%	9%	89	+0.5	187/270/358	171	253	25	0	36%	10%	76	-0.2
✕Andy Tracy 2007 · MLB	33	40→47	49→55	43→45	49	209/279/359	150	252	17	9	24%	9%	80	-0.2	224/297/381	157	272	19	6	24%	9%	92	+0.7	225/296/389	164	273	20	5	25%	8%	93	+0.7
✕Michael Restovich 2010 · MLB	31	47→49	49→55	43→30	43	237/287/391	153	303	17	3	27%	6%	90	+0.6	222/275/349	127	309	13	4	31%	7%	75	-0.5	205/258/316	110	294	11	1	33%	6%	58	-0.7

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps