Jorge Bonifacio

PosRF
B/TR/R
Born1993-06-04
Age (2027)34
No MLB projection yet. Career stats below are historical.
Overview
INTL
YearAgeLvl / TeamPAAVG/OBP/SLGHRSBwRC+WARMLE AVG/OBP/SLG
202330AA/INTL2 orgs537.264/.356/.46822776—.207/.277/.382
202431INTLGigantes del …59.180/.281/.2801158—
202633INTLAguilas Cibae…17.462/.588/1.00012320—
Contract
No contract data on file.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.
basis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

YearAge LvlTeam MLB% PAAB H2B3BHR BBSOHBP SBCS AVGOBPSLGOPS ISOBABIP K%BB% wOBAwRC+ BATRUNFLDPOSREP WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
201017 ROKAZL Royals — 282240 711671 32584 147 296388433821 138376 2111 361 71 — — — — — —
201118 ROKBurlington Royals — 258236 672047 16583 56 284337492829 208345 226 359 57 — — — — — —
201219 AKane County Cougars — 448412 11620610 30844 63 282336432768 150333 197 340 71 — — — — — —
201320 AANorthwest Arkansas Naturals — 10593 28702 11230 21 301375441816 140377 2210 362 97 — — — — — —
201320 A+Wilmington Blue Rocks — 234206 611132 23402 02 296372408780 112353 1710 348 83 — — — — — —
201320 ROKAZL Royals — 3530 9320 461 10 300400533933 233375 1711 407 75 — — — — — —
201320 INTLPeoria Javelinas — 7061 13500 6142 00 213304295599 82271 209 276 73 — — — — — —
201421 AANorthwest Arkansas Naturals — 566505 1162044 501275 83 230305309614 79295 229 280 47 — — — — — —
201522 AANorthwest Arkansas Naturals — 536483 11630217 421265 32 240308416724 176287 248 319 63 — — — — — —
201623 AAAOmaha Storm Chasers — 558495 13722619 511307 62 277353461813 184339 239 358 82 — — — — — —
201623 INTLTigres del Licey — 166153 38711 13300 22 248307327634 78303 188 289 82 — — — — — —
201724 MLBKansas City Royals — 422384 9815117 351182 11 255321432753 177324 288 334 117 +9 -0 -6 -6 +9 0.5
201724 AAAOmaha Storm Chasers — 5751 16223 680 00 314386608994 294325 1411 428 128 — — — — — —
201724 INTLTigres del Licey — 10294 25612 6242 00 266324415738 149338 246 330 109 — — — — — —
201825 MLBKansas City Royals — 270236 531624 29712 01 225315360675 136301 2611 303 91 -3 -0 -3 -5 +6 -0.5
201825 AAAOmaha Storm Chasers — 5851 20510 7120 00 392466529995 137513 2112 441 132 — — — — — —
201825 INTLTigres del Licey — 10799 21102 6281 20 212264283547 71271 266 249 55 — — — — — —
201926 MLBKansas City Royals — 2120 7300 170 00 350381500881 150538 335 389 151 +1 +0 -1 -7 +0 -0.6
201926 AAAOmaha Storm Chasers — 500451 10018520 381214 64 222288417705 195252 248 308 40 — — — — — —
201926 INTLTigres del Licey — 128115 381304 10212 21 330394548942 217374 168 410 164 — — — — — —
202027 MLBDetroit Tigers — 9486 19302 5262 00 221280326605 105288 285 273 74 -3 +0 -0 -2 +2 -0.3
202027 INTLTigres del Licey — 6460 16410 3121 10 267312367679 100333 195 305 93 — — — — — —
202128 AAALehigh Valley IronPigs — 183153 401325 28411 42 261379471850 209324 2215 375 80 — — — — — —
202128 AAReading Fightin Phils — 198171 4313012 24411 10 251347538885 287258 2112 381 67 — — — — — —
202128 INTLTigres del Licey — 11397 20423 11334 10 206312381694 175274 2910 311 97 — — — — — —
202229 AAALehigh Valley IronPigs — 444383 9217115 4712510 82 240339407746 167312 2811 334 51 — — — — — —
202229 INTLTigres del Licey — 7666 12311 7252 11 182280303583 121268 339 266 66 — — — — — —
202330 AANorthwest Arkansas Naturals — 508435 11620422 611013 60 267361483843 216293 2012 366 78 — — — — — —
202330 INTLTigres del Licey — 2927 6000 290 10 222276222498 333 317 235 45 — — — — — —
202431 INTLGigantes del Cibao — 5950 9201 6111 12 180281280561 100200 1910 254 58 — — — — — —
202633 INTLAguilas Cibaenas — 1713 6021 252 20 4625881.0001.588 538714 2912 641 320 — — — — — —
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career— — 807726 17737323 702226 12 244315398714 154318 289 318 101 +1 -1 -10 -20 +17 -1.2
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
201017 ROK MLEAZL Royals — 282253 581251 19834 147 229293328622 99316 297 273 71 — — — — — —
201118 ROK MLEBurlington Royals — 258241 481335 11823 56 199243340583 141271 324 253 57 — — — — — —
201219 A MLEKane County Cougars — 448422 991658 201134 63 235276353629 118302 254 273 71 — — — — — —
201320 AA MLENorthwest Arkansas Naturals — 10597 26602 7290 21 268317392709 124356 287 311 97 — — — — — —
201320 A+ MLEWilmington Blue Rocks — 234214 55822 15562 02 257312341653 84330 246 291 83 — — — — — —
201320 ROK MLEAZL Royals — 3532 6210 291 10 188257312570 125285 266 279 75 — — — — — —
201421 AA MLENorthwest Arkansas Naturals — 566519 1061733 361575 83 204263266528 62278 286 237 47 — — — — — —
201522 AA MLENorthwest Arkansas Naturals — 536497 10124216 281505 32 203253356609 153247 285 262 63 — — — — — —
201623 AAA MLEOmaha Storm Chasers — 558509 11718414 371617 62 230291363655 134304 297 289 82 — — — — — —
201724 MLB MLEKansas City Royals — 422384 9915118 351182 11 258323443766 185324 288 342 117 +9 -0 -6 -6 +9 0.5
201724 AAA MLEOmaha Storm Chasers — 5753 15223 4100 00 283333566899 283294 187 358 128 — — — — — —
201825 MLB MLEKansas City Royals — 270237 531624 28712 01 224311359670 135301 2610 303 91 -3 -0 -3 -5 +6 -0.5
201825 AAA MLEOmaha Storm Chasers — 5853 17410 5150 00 321379434813 113466 269 363 132 — — — — — —
201926 MLB MLEKansas City Royals — 2120 7300 170 00 350381500881 150538 335 391 151 +1 +0 -1 -7 +0 -0.6
201926 AAA MLEOmaha Storm Chasers — 500464 7914415 251614 64 170219315534 144207 325 228 40 — — — — — —
202027 MLB MLEDetroit Tigers — 9486 19302 5262 00 221280326605 105288 285 277 74 -3 +0 -0 -2 +2 -0.3
202128 AAA MLELehigh Valley IronPigs — 183163 351124 18501 42 215297380677 166269 2710 286 80 — — — — — —
202128 AA MLEReading Fightin Phils — 198180 341107 15511 10 189255367622 178209 268 267 67 — — — — — —
202229 AAA MLELehigh Valley IronPigs — 444400 7313110 3015510 82 182257295552 112257 357 243 51 — — — — — —
202330 AA MLENorthwest Arkansas Naturals — 508455 9414320 411213 60 207277382659 176221 248 284 78 — — — — — —
201017 ROK MLEAZL Royals — 282253 581251 19834 147 229293328622 99328 297 273 71 — — — — — —
201017 ROK RAWAZL Royals — 282240 711671 32584 147 296388433821 138376 2111 361 71 — — — — — —
201118 ROK MLEBurlington Royals — 258241 481335 11823 56 199243340583 141274 324 253 57 — — — — — —
201118 ROK RAWBurlington Royals — 258236 672047 16583 56 284337492829 208345 226 359 57 — — — — — —
201219 A MLEKane County Cougars — 448422 991658 201134 63 235276353629 118302 254 273 71 — — — — — —
201219 A RAWKane County Cougars — 448412 11620610 30844 63 282336432768 150333 197 340 71 — — — — — —
201320 A+ MLE4 teams — 444405 1042044 291115 33 257314356670 99339 257 295 86 — — — — — —
201320 A+ RAW4 teams — 444390 1112654 44835 33 285364408772 123347 1910 344 86 — — — — — —
201421 AA MLENorthwest Arkansas Naturals — 566519 1061733 361575 83 204263266528 62282 286 237 47 — — — — — —
201421 AA RAWNorthwest Arkansas Naturals — 566505 1162044 501275 83 230305309614 79295 229 280 47 — — — — — —
201522 AA MLENorthwest Arkansas Naturals — 536497 10124216 281505 32 203253356609 153253 285 262 63 — — — — — —
201522 AA RAWNorthwest Arkansas Naturals — 536483 11630217 421265 32 240308416724 176287 248 319 63 — — — — — —
201623 AAA MLE2 teams — 724664 15324618 482097 84 230289366655 136308 297 289 82 — — — — — —
201623 AAA RAW2 teams — 724648 17529720 641607 84 270342429771 159330 229 342 82 — — — — — —
201724 MLB MLE3 teams — 581528 13820325 481554 11 261328453780 191324 278 344 119 +13 -0 -6 -6 +13 1.3
201724 MLB RAW3 teams — 581529 13923422 471504 11 263328446774 183327 268 342 119 +13 -0 -6 -6 +13 1.3
201825 MLB MLE3 teams — 435384 952746 441153 21 247329385715 138335 2610 314 99 -1 +0 -3 -5 +9 0.1
201825 MLB RAW3 teams — 435386 942236 421113 21 244323363685 119324 2610 308 99 -1 +0 -3 -5 +9 0.1
201926 AAA MLE3 teams — 649603 10521418 322096 85 174223312535 138227 325 235 45 — — — — — —
201926 AAA RAW3 teams — 649586 14534524 491496 85 247312445757 198287 238 330 45 — — — — — —
202027 MLB MLE2 teams — 158146 33504 8443 10 226280342623 116293 285 277 74 -5 +0 -0 -2 +3 -0.4
202027 MLB RAW2 teams — 158146 35712 8383 10 240293342635 103308 245 286 74 -5 +0 -0 -2 +3 -0.4
202128 AA MLE3 teams — 494441 8728214 431306 62 197278365643 168243 269 276 73 — — — — — —
202128 AA RAW3 teams — 494421 10330420 631156 62 245351477828 233286 2313 363 73 — — — — — —
202229 AAA MLE2 teams — 520468 8515111 3518112 93 182256288545 107263 357 243 51 — — — — — —
202229 AAA RAW2 teams — 520449 10420216 5415012 93 232330392722 160306 2910 324 51 — — — — — —
202330 AA MLE2 teams — 537482 9915321 431283 70 205275380654 174228 248 284 78 — — — — — —
202330 AA RAW2 teams — 537462 12220422 631103 70 264356468824 203295 2012 359 78 — — — — — —
202431 INTL MLEGigantes del Cibao — 5950 9201 6111 12 180281280561 100200 1910 — — — — — — — —
202431 INTL RAWGigantes del Cibao — 5950 9201 6111 12 180281280561 100200 1910 254 58 — — — — — —
202633 INTL MLEAguilas Cibaenas — 1713 6021 252 20 4625881.0001.588 538714 2912 — — — — — — — —
202633 INTL RAWAguilas Cibaenas — 1713 6021 252 20 4625881.0001.588 538714 2912 641 320 — — — — — —
201017 ROK MLEAZL Royals — 282257 581251 19834 147 226293323616 97316 297 273 71 — — — — — —
201118 ROK MLEBurlington Royals — 258242 481335 11823 56 198243339582 140271 324 253 57 — — — — — —
201219 A MLEKane County Cougars — 448421 991658 201134 63 235276354630 119302 254 273 71 — — — — — —
201320 A+ MLE4 teams — 444407 1042044 291115 33 256314354668 98333 257 295 86 — — — — — —
201421 AA MLENorthwest Arkansas Naturals — 566520 1061733 361575 83 204263265528 62278 286 237 47 — — — — — —
201522 AA MLENorthwest Arkansas Naturals — 536498 10124216 281505 32 203253355608 153247 285 262 63 — — — — — —
201623 AAA MLE2 teams — 724663 15324618 482097 84 231289367656 136304 297 289 82 — — — — — —
201724 MLB MLE3 teams — 581524 13820325 481554 11 263328456784 193320 278 344 119 — — — — — —
201825 MLB MLE3 teams — 435385 952746 441153 21 247329384714 138330 2610 314 99 — — — — — —
201926 AAA MLE3 teams — 649606 10521418 322096 85 173223310533 137220 325 235 45 — — — — — —
202027 MLB MLE2 teams — 158146 33504 8443 10 226280342623 116288 285 277 74 — — — — — —
202128 AA MLE3 teams — 494442 8728214 431306 62 197278364642 167238 269 276 73 — — — — — —
202229 AAA MLE2 teams — 520468 8515111 3518112 93 182256288545 107257 357 243 51 — — — — — —
202330 AA MLE2 teams — 537486 9915321 431283 70 204275377651 173221 248 284 78 — — — — — —
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career— A+C — 807726 17737323 702226 12 244315398714 154318 289 318 70 +1 -1 -10 -20 +17 -1.2
/ 162G— A+C — 650585 14330219 561795 12 244316400716 156318 289 318 70 +1 -0 -8 -16 +14 -0.9
Career— MLE — 67086116 132625947156 452188373 8442 217279351630 134283 287 272 70 +1 -1 -10 -20 +17 -1.2
/ 162G— MLE — 650593 12925515 441827 84 218280352632 135284 287 272 70 +1 -0 -8 -16 +14 -0.9

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2023 AANorthwest Arkansas Naturals · 508 PAwOBA .362 → .284 (−79)K% 19.9% → 23.9%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA19.88%÷1.014×1.220——23.92%
BB% (unintentional) /PA11.81%÷0.984×0.700—×0.9487.97%
HBP% /PA0.59%—×0.870—×0.9480.49%
Singles /BIP20.96%÷1.055×0.920×0.950×0.94816.46%
Doubles /BIP5.99%÷1.131×0.840×0.950×0.9484.01%
Triples /BIP1.20%÷1.062×0.940×0.950×0.9480.95%
Home runs /BIP6.59%÷0.872×0.800—×0.9485.73%

Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 74, 1B 111, 2B 126, 3B 112, K 103, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 30 vs a level average of 24.8 → −5.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (5.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .362 → .284; ISO .216 → .183; BABIP .293 → .221. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAALehigh Valley IronPigs · 444 PAwOBA .328 → .243 (−85)K% 28.2% → 34.8%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA28.15%÷0.970×1.200——34.84%
BB% (unintentional) /PA10.59%÷1.067×0.690—×0.9826.72%
HBP% /PA2.25%—×0.940—×0.9822.08%
Singles /BIP22.87%÷1.007×0.930×0.950×0.98219.71%
Doubles /BIP6.59%÷1.018×0.830×0.950×0.9825.01%
Triples /BIP0.39%÷0.900×0.970×0.950×0.9820.39%
Home runs /BIP5.81%÷1.039×0.700—×0.9823.85%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 108, 1B 101, 2B 104, 3B 80, K 94, BB 113 — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 27.2 → −1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .328 → .243; ISO .167 → .113; BABIP .312 → .257. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAReading Fightin Phils · 198 PAwOBA .371 → .267 (−104)K% 20.7% → 25.6%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA20.71%÷0.985×1.220——25.65%
BB% (unintentional) /PA11.11%÷0.989×0.690—×0.9687.51%
HBP% /PA0.51%—×0.850—×0.9680.42%
Singles /BIP13.85%÷0.989×0.940×0.950×0.96812.10%
Doubles /BIP10.00%÷0.993×0.870×0.950×0.9688.06%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.150×0.920×0.950×0.9680.00%
Home runs /BIP9.23%÷1.344×0.780—×0.9685.19%

Factors used: level-wide AA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 169, 1B 98, 2B 99, 3B 130, K 97, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 24.8 → −3.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .371 → .267; ISO .287 → .182; BABIP .258 → .209. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAALehigh Valley IronPigs · 183 PAwOBA .368 → .286 (−82)K% 22.4% → 27.1%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA22.40%÷0.992×1.200——27.11%
BB% (unintentional) /PA15.30%÷1.061×0.690—×0.9929.87%
HBP% /PA0.55%—×0.940—×0.9920.51%
Singles /BIP17.86%÷1.016×0.930×0.950×0.99215.40%
Doubles /BIP11.61%÷0.952×0.830×0.950×0.9929.54%
Triples /BIP1.79%÷1.150×0.920×0.950×0.9921.35%
Home runs /BIP4.46%÷0.957×0.700—×0.9923.24%

Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 91, 1B 103, 2B 90, 3B 130, K 98, BB 112 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .368 → .286; ISO .209 → .164; BABIP .324 → .269. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AAAOmaha Storm Chasers · 500 PAwOBA .303 → .228 (−75)K% 24.2% → 32.2%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA24.20%÷0.971×1.290——32.16%
BB% (unintentional) /PA7.40%÷1.065×0.710—×1.0185.02%
HBP% /PA0.80%—×0.980—×1.0180.80%
Singles /BIP17.27%÷1.024×0.900×0.950×1.01814.68%
Doubles /BIP5.45%÷0.973×0.810×0.950×1.0184.39%
Triples /BIP1.52%÷1.038×0.810×0.950×1.0181.14%
Home runs /BIP6.06%÷1.023×0.780—×1.0184.70%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 105, 1B 105, 2B 95, 3B 108, K 94, BB 113 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .303 → .228; ISO .195 → .143; BABIP .252 → .207. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 AAAOmaha Storm Chasers · 58 PAwOBA .430 → .363 (−67)K% 20.7% → 26.5%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA20.69%÷1.007×1.290——26.49%
BB% (unintentional) /PA12.07%÷1.018×0.710—×1.0338.70%
HBP% /PA0.00%—×0.980—×1.0330.00%
Singles /BIP35.90%÷1.020×0.900—×1.03332.74%
Doubles /BIP12.82%÷0.936×0.810—×1.03311.46%
Triples /BIP2.56%÷0.900×0.810—×1.0332.38%
Home runs /BIP0.00%÷1.101×0.780—×1.0330.00%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 120, 1B 104, 2B 87, 3B 80, K 102, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .430 → .363; ISO .137 → .120; BABIP .513 → .466. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 AAAOmaha Storm Chasers · 57 PAwOBA .416 → .358 (−58)K% 14.0% → 17.2%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA14.04%÷1.054×1.290——17.17%
BB% (unintentional) /PA10.53%÷1.076×0.710—×1.0487.28%
HBP% /PA0.00%—×0.980—×1.0480.00%
Singles /BIP20.93%÷1.024×0.900—×1.04819.28%
Doubles /BIP4.65%÷0.985×0.810—×1.0484.01%
Triples /BIP4.65%÷0.914×0.810—×1.0484.32%
Home runs /BIP6.98%÷0.956×0.780—×1.0485.96%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 91, 1B 105, 2B 97, 3B 83, K 111, BB 115 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 27.2 → +4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .416 → .358; ISO .294 → .258; BABIP .325 → .294. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2016 AAAOmaha Storm Chasers · 558 PAwOBA .349 → .289 (−60)K% 23.3% → 28.9%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA23.30%÷1.040×1.290——28.90%
BB% (unintentional) /PA8.96%÷1.006×0.710—×1.0506.64%
HBP% /PA1.25%—×0.980—×1.0501.29%
Singles /BIP24.66%÷0.968×0.900×0.950×1.05022.87%
Doubles /BIP6.03%÷0.929×0.810×0.950×1.0505.24%
Triples /BIP1.64%÷1.068×0.810×0.950×1.0501.24%
Home runs /BIP5.21%÷1.054×0.780—×1.0504.04%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 111, 1B 94, 2B 86, 3B 114, K 108, BB 101 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .349 → .289; ISO .184 → .141; BABIP .339 → .304. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .