Kevin Padlo

Pos3B

B/TR/R

Born1996-07-15

Age (2027)31

No MLB projection yet. Career stats below are historical.

Overview

AAALAST SEASON 2024

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2022	26	AAAPIT	344	.255/.333/.438	12	13	61	—	.199/.257/.328
2022	26	MLBPIT	34	.121/.147/.152	0	0	-21	-0.5
2023	27	AAA/ROKLAA	421	.259/.384/.447	13	9	77	—	.201/.293/.331
2024	28	AAA/AA/INTL3 orgs	369	.168/.290/.330	12	10	37	—	.147/.240/.263
2025	29	No MLB games played
2026	30	No MLB games played

Last 3 seasons WAR -0.5

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2024 AAA

Max EV98

BB%85

Chase%84

K%26

Whiff%23

Z-Con%20

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2014	18	ROK	Grand Junction Rockies	—	198	160	48	15	4	8	31	38	4	6	1	300	426	594	1.019	294	345	19	16	434	99	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	19	A	Asheville Tourists	—	99	83	12	5	0	2	14	26	1	2	1	145	276	277	553	133	179	26	14	259	8	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	20	A	Bowling Green Hot Rods	—	509	414	95	22	3	16	79	134	7	14	9	229	361	413	774	184	293	26	16	345	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	20	INTL	Brisbane Bandits	—	139	119	33	12	3	2	15	17	3	1	1	277	372	479	851	202	304	12	11	371	137	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	21	A+	Charlotte Stone Crabs	—	259	220	49	13	3	6	35	60	0	4	5	223	329	391	720	168	272	23	14	320	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	21	ROK	GCL Rays	—	21	17	2	0	1	0	3	1	1	1	0	118	286	235	521	118	125	5	14	255	6	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	21	INTL	Surprise Saguaros	—	96	85	22	3	2	0	8	22	1	1	0	259	330	341	671	82	338	23	8	300	89	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	22	A+	Charlotte Stone Crabs	—	449	385	86	26	0	8	47	119	9	5	0	223	321	353	674	130	295	27	10	304	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	23	AAA	Durham Bulls	—	155	131	38	11	1	9	21	46	3	1	0	290	400	595	995	305	382	30	14	430	115	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	23	AA	Montgomery Biscuits	—	277	220	55	20	0	12	47	70	4	11	4	250	391	505	896	255	299	25	17	387	109	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	25	MLB	Seattle Mariners	—	15	13	1	1	0	0	2	9	0	0	0	77	200	154	354	77	250	60	13	179	8	-2	+0	+1	+1	+0	0.1
2021	25	AAA	Tacoma Rainiers	—	403	357	80	14	2	20	41	114	2	6	2	224	307	443	750	218	265	28	10	329	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	26	MLB	Pittsburgh Pirates	—	34	33	4	1	0	0	1	10	0	0	0	121	147	152	299	30	174	29	3	138	-21	-5	+0	-2	+1	+1	-0.5
2022	26	AAA	Indianapolis Indians	—	344	306	78	16	2	12	32	90	4	13	2	255	333	438	771	183	320	26	9	341	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	27	AAA	Salt Lake Bees	—	406	333	87	24	0	13	67	98	2	9	4	261	388	450	839	189	327	24	17	373	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	27	ROK	ACL Angels	—	15	14	3	2	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	214	267	357	624	143	273	20	7	278	1	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	28	AAA	Iowa Cubs	—	276	227	43	12	0	9	41	79	2	9	1	189	319	361	680	172	234	29	15	305	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	28	AA	Northwest Arkansas Naturals	—	30	28	4	0	0	1	2	10	0	0	0	143	200	250	450	107	176	33	7	206	-14	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	28	INTL	Algodoneros de Guasave	—	63	54	5	2	0	2	6	31	2	1	0	93	210	241	450	148	143	49	10	211	29	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	49	46	5	2	0	0	3	19	0	0	0	109	163	152	315	43	185	39	6	151	-12	-7	+0	-1	+3	+1	-0.4
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2014	18	ROK MLE	Grand Junction Rockies	—	198	172	38	11	3	6	19	55	4	6	1	221	313	424	737	203	272	28	10	315	99	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	19	A MLE	Asheville Tourists	—	99	88	8	3	0	1	9	34	1	2	1	91	184	159	343	68	138	34	9	180	8	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	20	A MLE	Bowling Green Hot Rods	—	509	439	79	18	3	12	55	179	7	14	9	180	281	317	598	137	256	35	11	268	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	21	A+ MLE	Charlotte Stone Crabs	—	259	228	39	11	2	5	27	84	0	4	5	171	259	303	561	132	239	32	10	261	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	21	ROK MLE	GCL Rays	—	21	18	2	0	1	0	2	1	1	1	0	111	238	222	460	111	95	5	10	177	6	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	22	A+ MLE	Charlotte Stone Crabs	—	449	399	67	21	0	7	35	172	9	5	0	168	251	273	524	105	258	38	8	238	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	23	AAA MLE	Durham Bulls	—	155	137	33	9	1	7	15	54	3	1	0	241	329	474	803	234	333	35	10	338	115	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	23	AA MLE	Montgomery Biscuits	—	277	235	51	18	0	11	32	87	4	11	4	217	321	434	755	217	264	31	12	329	109	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	25	MLB MLE	Seattle Mariners	—	15	13	1	1	0	0	2	9	0	0	0	77	200	154	354	77	250	60	13	180	8	-2	+0	+1	+1	+0	0.1
2021	25	AAA MLE	Tacoma Rainiers	—	403	371	68	11	2	14	27	138	2	6	2	183	242	337	579	154	240	34	7	256	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	26	MLB MLE	Pittsburgh Pirates	—	34	33	4	1	0	0	1	10	0	0	0	121	147	152	299	30	174	29	3	137	-21	-5	+0	-2	+1	+1	-0.5
2022	26	AAA MLE	Indianapolis Indians	—	344	317	63	13	2	8	21	110	4	13	2	199	257	328	585	129	270	32	6	258	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	27	AAA MLE	Salt Lake Bees	—	406	355	72	20	0	9	45	117	2	9	4	203	296	335	631	132	268	29	11	286	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	27	ROK MLE	ACL Angels	—	15	14	2	1	0	0	1	5	0	0	0	143	200	214	414	71	195	33	7	170	1	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	28	AAA MLE	Iowa Cubs	—	276	238	36	10	0	6	30	95	2	9	1	151	252	269	521	118	198	34	11	234	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	28	AA MLE	Northwest Arkansas Naturals	—	30	29	3	0	0	1	1	12	0	0	0	103	133	207	340	103	145	40	3	147	-14	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	18	ROK MLE	Grand Junction Rockies	—	198	172	38	11	3	6	19	55	4	6	1	221	313	424	737	203	283	28	10	315	99	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	18	ROK RAW	Grand Junction Rockies	—	198	160	48	15	4	8	31	38	4	6	1	300	426	594	1.019	294	345	19	16	434	99	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	19	A MLE	Asheville Tourists	—	99	88	8	3	0	1	9	34	1	2	1	91	184	159	343	68	130	34	9	180	8	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	19	A RAW	Asheville Tourists	—	99	83	12	5	0	2	14	26	1	2	1	145	276	277	553	133	179	26	14	259	8	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	20	A MLE	2 teams	—	648	557	101	23	3	16	71	228	10	15	10	181	285	320	605	138	265	35	11	268	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	20	A RAW	2 teams	—	648	533	128	34	6	18	94	151	10	15	10	240	364	428	791	188	296	23	15	350	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	21	A+ MLE	3 teams	—	376	329	56	15	4	7	39	114	2	6	5	170	262	304	566	134	229	30	10	255	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	21	A+ RAW	3 teams	—	376	322	73	16	6	6	46	83	2	6	5	227	327	370	697	143	280	22	12	311	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	22	A+ MLE	Charlotte Stone Crabs	—	449	399	67	21	0	7	35	172	9	5	0	168	251	273	524	105	265	38	8	238	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	22	A+ RAW	Charlotte Stone Crabs	—	449	385	86	26	0	8	47	119	9	5	0	223	321	353	674	130	295	27	10	304	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	23	AA MLE	2 teams	—	432	372	83	27	1	18	47	141	7	12	4	223	322	446	768	223	297	33	11	332	111	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	23	AA RAW	2 teams	—	432	351	93	31	1	21	68	116	7	12	4	265	394	538	933	274	327	27	16	403	111	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	25	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	418	384	69	12	2	14	29	147	2	6	2	180	241	331	572	151	243	35	7	253	58	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	25	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	418	370	81	15	2	20	43	123	2	6	2	219	304	432	736	214	265	29	10	324	58	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	26	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	378	350	67	14	2	8	22	120	4	13	2	191	247	311	559	120	263	32	6	247	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	26	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	378	339	82	17	2	12	33	100	4	13	2	242	316	410	727	168	306	26	9	323	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	27	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	421	369	74	21	0	9	46	121	2	9	4	201	293	331	623	130	267	29	11	282	77	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	27	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	421	347	90	26	0	13	68	101	2	9	4	259	384	447	830	187	325	24	16	369	77	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	28	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	369	321	46	12	0	8	37	129	4	10	1	143	240	255	496	112	200	35	10	225	39	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	28	AAA RAW	3 teams	—	369	309	52	14	0	12	49	120	4	10	1	168	290	330	620	162	219	33	13	281	39	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	18	ROK MLE	Grand Junction Rockies	—	198	173	38	11	3	6	19	55	4	6	1	220	313	422	735	202	272	28	10	315	99	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	19	A MLE	Asheville Tourists	—	99	89	8	3	0	1	9	34	1	2	1	90	184	157	341	67	138	34	9	180	8	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	20	A MLE	2 teams	—	648	562	101	23	3	16	71	228	10	15	10	180	285	317	602	137	256	35	11	268	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	21	A+ MLE	3 teams	—	376	332	56	15	4	7	39	114	2	6	5	169	262	301	563	133	228	30	10	255	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	22	A+ MLE	Charlotte Stone Crabs	—	449	402	67	21	0	7	35	172	9	5	0	167	251	271	522	104	258	38	8	238	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	23	AA MLE	2 teams	—	432	375	83	27	1	18	47	141	7	12	4	221	322	443	764	221	289	33	11	332	111	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	25	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	418	384	69	12	2	14	29	147	2	6	2	180	241	331	572	151	240	35	7	253	58	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	26	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	378	349	67	14	2	8	22	120	4	13	2	192	247	312	560	120	261	32	6	247	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	27	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	421	370	74	21	0	9	46	121	2	9	4	200	293	330	622	130	265	29	11	282	77	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	28	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	369	325	46	12	0	8	37	129	4	10	1	142	240	252	493	111	193	35	10	225	39	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	28	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	369	325	46	12	0	8	37	129	4	10	1	142	240	252	493	111	193	35	10	225	39	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	49	46	5	2	0	0	3	19	0	0	0	109	163	152	315	43	185	39	6	151	65	-7	+0	-1	+3	+1	-0.4
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	610	67	27	0	0	40	252	0	0	0	110	165	154	319	44	187	39	6	151	65	-87	+0	-15	+38	+14	-5.1
Career	—	MLE		—	3788	3341	609	159	15	94	354	1261	45	84	30	182	270	323	593	141	254	33	9	264	65	-7	+0	-1	+3	+1	-0.4
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	573	105	27	3	16	61	216	8	14	5	183	271	325	596	141	255	33	9	264	65	-87	+0	-15	+38	+14	-5.1

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2024 AAAIowa Cubs · 276 PAwOBA .304 → .234 (−70)K% 28.6% → 34.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	28.62%	÷0.998	×1.200	—	—	34.43%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	14.86%	÷0.949	×0.690	—	×0.992	10.72%
HBP% /PA	0.72%	—	×0.940	—	×0.992	0.68%
Singles /BIP	14.86%	÷0.994	×0.930	×0.954	×0.992	13.16%
Doubles /BIP	8.11%	÷0.962	×0.830	×0.954	×0.992	6.62%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.970	×0.954	×0.992	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	6.08%	÷1.079	×0.700	—	×0.992	3.91%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 116, 1B 99, 2B 92, 3B 100, K 100, BB 90 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.954.

Result: wOBA .304 → .234; ISO .172 → .121; BABIP .234 → .198. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AANorthwest Arkansas Naturals · 30 PAwOBA .201 → .147 (−53)K% 33.3% → 41.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	33.33%	÷0.991	×1.220	—	—	41.02%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	6.67%	÷1.056	×0.700	—	×0.968	4.28%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.870	—	×0.968	0.00%
Singles /BIP	16.67%	÷1.073	×0.920	—	×0.968	13.83%
Doubles /BIP	0.00%	÷1.025	×0.840	—	×0.968	0.00%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.900	×0.940	—	×0.968	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	5.56%	÷0.920	×0.800	—	×0.968	4.68%

Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 84, 1B 115, 2B 105, 3B 80, K 98, BB 111 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 24.8 → −3.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .201 → .147; ISO .107 → .082; BABIP .176 → .145. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAASalt Lake Bees · 406 PAwOBA .366 → .286 (−80)K% 24.1% → 28.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	24.14%	÷1.010	×1.200	—	—	28.69%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	16.26%	÷1.005	×0.690	—	×1.003	11.20%
HBP% /PA	0.49%	—	×0.940	—	×1.003	0.46%
Singles /BIP	21.28%	÷1.058	×0.930	×0.950	×1.003	17.83%
Doubles /BIP	10.21%	÷0.967	×0.830	×0.950	×1.003	8.36%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.900	×0.970	×0.950	×1.003	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	5.53%	÷1.003	×0.700	—	×1.003	3.87%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 101, 1B 112, 2B 93, 3B 80, K 102, BB 101 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .366 → .286; ISO .189 → .145; BABIP .327 → .268. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 ROKACL Angels · 15 PAwOBA .271 → .170 (−101)K% 20.0% → 30.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	20.00%	÷0.955	×1.440	—	—	30.17%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	6.67%	÷0.978	×0.620	—	×0.940	3.97%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.720	—	×0.940	0.00%
Singles /BIP	9.09%	÷0.970	×0.820	—	×0.940	7.22%
Doubles /BIP	18.18%	÷1.001	×0.720	—	×0.940	12.30%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.961	×0.720	—	×0.940	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷0.910	×0.780	—	×0.940	0.00%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 82, 1B 94, 2B 100, 3B 92, K 91, BB 96 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 19.5 → −6.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (7.5 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .271 → .170; ISO .143 → .087; BABIP .273 → .195. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAAIndianapolis Indians · 344 PAwOBA .334 → .258 (−76)K% 26.2% → 32.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	26.16%	÷0.982	×1.200	—	—	31.98%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	9.30%	÷1.058	×0.690	—	×1.018	6.17%
HBP% /PA	1.16%	—	×0.940	—	×1.018	1.11%
Singles /BIP	22.22%	÷1.087	×0.930	×0.977	×1.018	18.91%
Doubles /BIP	7.41%	÷0.964	×0.830	×0.977	×1.018	6.35%
Triples /BIP	0.93%	÷0.942	×0.970	×0.977	×1.018	0.95%
Home runs /BIP	5.56%	÷1.013	×0.700	—	×1.018	3.91%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 103, 1B 117, 2B 93, 3B 88, K 96, BB 112 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.977.

Result: wOBA .334 → .258; ISO .183 → .136; BABIP .320 → .270. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAATacoma Rainiers · 403 PAwOBA .322 → .256 (−66)K% 28.3% → 34.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	28.29%	÷0.994	×1.200	—	—	34.16%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	9.93%	÷1.045	×0.690	—	×1.033	6.77%
HBP% /PA	0.50%	—	×0.940	—	×1.033	0.48%
Singles /BIP	18.11%	÷0.952	×0.930	×0.950	×1.033	17.36%
Doubles /BIP	5.76%	÷0.989	×0.830	×0.950	×1.033	4.74%
Triples /BIP	0.82%	÷0.977	×0.920	×0.950	×1.033	0.76%
Home runs /BIP	8.23%	÷0.970	×0.700	—	×1.033	6.14%

Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 94, 1B 90, 2B 98, 3B 95, K 99, BB 109 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .322 → .256; ISO .218 → .163; BABIP .265 → .240. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AAMontgomery Biscuits · 277 PAwOBA .382 → .329 (−54)K% 25.3% → 31.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	25.27%	÷0.985	×1.220	—	—	31.30%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	15.88%	÷0.963	×0.680	—	×1.027	11.52%
HBP% /PA	1.44%	—	×0.840	—	×1.027	1.25%
Singles /BIP	15.33%	÷0.978	×0.920	×0.950	×1.027	14.07%
Doubles /BIP	13.33%	÷1.028	×0.910	×0.950	×1.027	11.51%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.150	×0.880	×0.950	×1.027	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	8.00%	÷0.920	×0.800	—	×1.027	7.15%

Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 84, 1B 96, 2B 106, 3B 130, K 97, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .382 → .329; ISO .255 → .232; BABIP .299 → .264. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AAADurham Bulls · 155 PAwOBA .419 → .338 (−80)K% 29.7% → 34.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	29.68%	÷1.020	×1.200	—	—	34.91%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	13.55%	÷0.998	×0.690	—	×1.050	9.84%
HBP% /PA	1.94%	—	×0.940	—	×1.050	1.91%
Singles /BIP	20.00%	÷0.986	×0.930	×0.950	×1.050	18.81%
Doubles /BIP	12.94%	÷1.006	×0.830	×0.950	×1.050	10.65%
Triples /BIP	1.18%	÷1.025	×0.970	×0.950	×1.050	1.11%
Home runs /BIP	10.59%	÷1.128	×0.840	—	×1.050	8.28%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 126, 1B 97, 2B 101, 3B 105, K 104, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .419 → .338; ISO .305 → .238; BABIP .382 → .333. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .