Kevin Padlo — OGILVIE

Kevin Padlo3B Iowa Cubs

Age 30 R/R 6'0" / 210 lbs AAA Svc 5.000 · Ctrl thru 2026

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 250 proj PA

wRC+†74

AVG/OBP/SLG.194 / .286 / .329

PA250

HR6

SB5

K%31

BB%11

ISO136

MLB%10%

Value2026 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · ContractCON 25 / POW 44

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2021-2023

CONTACT25

Whiff%

1016.1%

xwOBA

100.151

POWER44

Avg EV

1077.8

EYE61

Chase%

3534.7%

SPEED53

Sprint

1023.3

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Arb-3

MLB Debut 2021

Service 5.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2026

First FA Year 2027

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Arb-3	$0.2M	—	—	—
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2014	18	ROK	Grand Junction Rockies	—	198	172	37	11	3	6	19	55	4	6	1	215	308	419	726	203	274	28	10	309	95	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	18	ROK	Grand Junction Rockies	—	198	160	48	15	4	8	31	38	4	6	1	300	426	594	1.019	294	345	19	16	434	190	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	19	A	Asheville Tourists	—	99	88	8	3	0	1	9	33	1	2	1	91	184	159	343	68	127	33	9	163	-17	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	19	A	Asheville Tourists	—	99	83	12	5	0	2	14	26	1	2	1	145	276	277	553	133	179	26	14	259	56	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	20	A	2 teams	—	648	559	101	24	4	15	69	224	10	15	10	181	282	318	601	138	262	35	11	265	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	20	A	2 teams	—	648	533	128	34	6	18	94	151	10	15	10	240	364	428	791	188	296	23	15	350	126	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	21	A+	3 teams	—	376	329	55	15	4	8	39	113	2	6	5	167	259	310	569	143	220	30	10	251	50	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	21	A+	3 teams	—	376	322	73	16	6	6	46	83	2	6	5	227	327	370	697	143	280	22	12	311	96	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	22	A+	Charlotte Stone Crabs	—	449	400	66	20	0	9	34	175	9	5	0	165	246	282	529	117	257	39	8	236	39	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	22	A+	Charlotte Stone Crabs	—	449	385	86	26	0	8	47	119	9	5	0	223	321	353	674	130	295	27	10	304	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	23	AA	2 teams	—	432	372	81	24	1	19	47	146	7	12	4	218	317	441	758	223	291	34	11	327	108	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	23	AA	2 teams	—	432	351	93	31	1	21	68	116	7	12	4	265	394	538	933	274	327	27	16	403	166	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	25	AAA	2 teams	—	418	386	73	12	2	17	27	148	2	6	2	189	246	363	608	174	250	35	6	266	62	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	25	AAA	2 teams	—	418	370	81	15	2	20	43	123	2	6	2	219	304	432	736	214	265	29	10	324	106	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	26	AAA	2 teams	—	378	351	65	15	2	9	21	122	4	13	2	185	239	316	556	131	252	32	6	244	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	26	AAA	2 teams	—	378	339	82	17	2	12	33	100	4	13	2	242	316	410	727	168	306	26	9	323	105	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	27	AAA	2 teams	—	421	368	70	21	0	10	47	129	2	9	4	190	285	329	614	139	258	31	11	274	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	27	AAA	2 teams	—	421	347	90	26	0	13	68	101	2	9	4	259	384	447	830	187	325	24	16	369	141	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	28	AAA	3 teams	—	369	319	47	12	0	9	39	131	4	10	1	147	249	270	518	122	205	36	11	236	39	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	28	AAA	3 teams	—	369	309	52	14	0	12	49	120	4	10	1	168	290	330	620	162	219	33	13	281	73	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season
2026	30	MLB	CHC	—	250	219	43	10	1	6	27	77	2	5	1	196	290	333	624	137	266	31	11	281	74	-7	+1	-0	+1	+7	0.0
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	31	MLB	CHC	27%	341	300	59	14	1	8	36	103	2	6	1	197	287	330	617	133	266	30	11	282	74	-10	+1	-3	+1	+10	-0.2
2027	31	MLB	CHC	27%	93	82	16	4	0	2	10	28	1	2	0	195	290	317	607	122	268	30	11	278	71	-3	+0	-1	+0	+3	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	142	128	21	6	0	2	13	47	1	2	0	164	246	258	504	94	241	33	9	234	37	-10	+0	-2	+3	+4	-0.5
/ 162G	—			—	650	586	96	27	0	9	60	215	5	9	0	164	248	256	504	92	240	33	9	234	37	-46	+2	-9	+15	+18	-2.1
Career	—			—	4379	3863	705	181	18	117	414	1456	49	95	32	183	270	330	600	147	252	33	9	266	61	-191	+6	-5	+7	+124	-6.1
/ 162G	—			—	650	573	105	27	3	17	61	216	7	14	5	183	269	330	599	147	254	33	9	266	61	-28	+1	-1	+1	+18	-0.9

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2014	18	ROK	Grand Junction Rockies	—	198	160	48	15	4	8	31	38	4	6	1	300	426	594	1.019	294	345	19	16	434	190	+20	+1	—	—	+6	2.7
2015	19	A	Asheville Tourists	—	99	83	12	5	0	2	14	26	1	2	1	145	276	277	553	133	179	26	14	259	56	-5	+0	—	—	+3	-0.2
2016	20	A	Bowling Green Hot Rods	—	509	414	95	22	3	16	79	134	7	14	9	229	361	413	774	184	293	26	16	345	122	+13	-1	—	—	+14	2.7
2016	20	INTL	Brisbane Bandits	—	139	119	33	12	3	2	15	17	3	1	1	277	372	479	851	202	304	12	11	371	142	+7	-0	—	—	+4	1.1
2017	21	A+	Charlotte Stone Crabs	—	259	220	49	13	3	6	35	60	0	4	5	223	329	391	720	168	272	23	14	320	103	+1	-1	—	—	+7	0.7
2017	21	ROK	GCL Rays	—	21	17	2	0	1	0	3	1	1	1	0	118	286	235	521	118	125	5	14	255	53	-1	+0	—	—	+1	-0.0
2017	21	INTL	Surprise Saguaros	—	96	85	22	3	2	0	8	22	1	1	0	259	330	341	671	82	338	23	8	300	88	-1	+0	—	—	+3	0.2
2018	22	A+	Charlotte Stone Crabs	—	449	385	86	26	0	8	47	119	9	5	0	223	321	353	674	130	295	27	10	304	91	-5	+1	—	—	+13	0.9
2019	23	AAA	Durham Bulls	—	155	131	38	11	1	9	21	46	3	1	0	290	400	595	995	305	382	30	14	430	187	+15	+0	—	—	+4	2.0
2019	23	AA	Montgomery Biscuits	—	277	220	55	20	0	12	47	70	4	11	4	250	391	505	896	255	299	25	17	387	154	+17	+1	—	—	+8	2.6
2021	25	MLB	Seattle Mariners	—	15	13	1	1	0	0	2	9	0	0	0	77	200	154	354	77	250	60	13	179	-5	-2	+0	+1	+1	+0	0.1
2021	25	AAA	Tacoma Rainiers	—	403	357	80	14	2	20	41	114	2	6	2	224	307	443	750	218	265	28	10	329	110	+5	+0	—	—	+11	1.7
2022	26	MLB	Pittsburgh Pirates	—	34	33	4	1	0	0	1	10	0	0	0	121	147	152	299	30	174	29	3	138	-36	-5	+0	-2	+1	+1	-0.5
2022	26	AAA	Indianapolis Indians	—	344	306	78	16	2	12	32	90	4	13	2	255	333	438	771	183	320	26	9	341	119	+8	+2	—	—	+10	1.9
2023	27	AAA	Salt Lake Bees	—	406	333	87	24	0	13	67	98	2	9	4	261	388	450	839	189	327	24	17	373	143	+20	+0	—	—	+12	3.2
2023	27	ROK	ACL Angels	—	15	14	3	2	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	214	267	357	624	143	273	20	7	278	71	-0	+0	—	—	+0	-0.0
2024	28	AAA	Iowa Cubs	—	276	227	43	12	0	9	41	79	2	9	1	189	319	361	680	172	234	29	15	305	91	-3	+1	—	—	+8	0.7
2024	28	AA	Northwest Arkansas Naturals	—	30	28	4	0	0	1	2	10	0	0	0	143	200	250	450	107	176	33	7	206	16	-3	+0	—	—	+1	-0.2
2024	28	INTL	Algodoneros de Guasave	—	63	54	5	2	0	2	6	31	2	1	0	93	210	241	450	148	143	49	10	211	20	-6	+0	—	—	+2	-0.4
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	49	46	5	2	0	0	3	19	0	0	0	109	163	152	315	43	185	39	6	151	-27	-7	+0	-1	+3	+1	-0.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Kevin Padlo (OGILVIE)	30	25	44	53	61	194/286/329	135	266	6	5	31%	11%	74	-0.0	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Justin Leone 2008 · AAA	31	42→41	49→50	53→55	49	213/292/360	147	273	17	15	28%	9%	82	+0.5	196/273/336	140	263	16	15	30%	9%	69	-0.4	169/251/300	130	226	15	14	31%	10%	50	-1.0
✕David Matranga 2008 · AAA	31	40	46→45	51→50	43	206/273/329	123	265	14	13	28%	7%	67	-0.5	218/294/343	125	294	13	9	29%	8%	79	+0.3	211/297/329	119	288	12	5	29%	9%	75	+0.0
✕Zack Short 2023 · MLB	28	37→38	46→50	46→45	51	190/285/315	126	261	13	9	31%	11%	69	-0.4	190/284/317	127	263	14	10	31%	11%	69	-0.4	173/272/299	126	234	15	8	31%	11%	58	-0.7
✕Ryan Cordell 2021 · MLB	29	42	45→50	49→50	41	213/268/337	124	286	13	11	30%	6%	66	-0.6	208/271/377	169	328	22	14	41%	7%	79	+0.3	153/218/323	171	234	27	18	47%	6%	41	-0.9
✕Michael Pérez 2023 · MLB	30	33	49→50	45→40	46	184/255/323	140	226	18	4	28%	8%	58	-1.2	193/267/322	129	258	16	4	30%	8%	63	-0.8	168/248/282	114	227	14	0	32%	8%	43	-0.9
✕Brandon Larson 2005 · MLB	29	42	47→50	46→45	52	212/300/344	133	268	15	9	26%	10%	82	+0.5	229/286/389	160	293	20	6	28%	6%	88	+0.9	222/268/381	159	280	22	4	29%	5%	75	+0.0
✕Seth Bynum 2011 · AAA	30	40→44	50→55	50	38	212/255/362	151	286	19	11	33%	6%	68	-0.5	206/255/336	130	295	15	11	34%	6%	61	-1.0	194/246/316	121	279	14	8	35%	5%	48	-1.1
✕Jonathan Davis 2022 · MLB	30	40→50	44→45	52→55	48	198/302/313	116	269	11	19	29%	9%	77	+0.1	225/308/344	119	307	11	22	28%	9%	85	+0.7	224/306/341	117	313	11	22	29%	9%	81	+0.2
✕Brett Carroll 2013 · MLB	30	42→45	48→55	47→50	43	215/278/354	140	275	15	11	28%	7%	76	+0.0	206/271/344	138	287	17	10	33%	7%	70	-0.3	181/260/337	157	237	23	11	34%	8%	60	-0.5
✕Chris Owings 2023 · MLB	31	38→48	47→50	50→55	44	198/265/333	135	266	15	12	31%	8%	64	-0.8	203/276/336	133	297	16	11	35%	8%	70	-0.3	193/272/319	126	285	16	11	36%	9%	60	-0.6
✕Jake Hager 2022 · MLB	29	36→46	50	52→50	41	196/252/349	153	257	19	10	32%	7%	63	-0.8	201/258/315	114	276	11	9	30%	7%	56	-1.3	190/247/283	93	269	7	7	30%	6%	41	-0.9
✕Eric Stamets 2022 · MLB	30	36→46	43→45	54→50	41	184/246/294	109	250	11	13	30%	6%	46	-2.0	193/261/313	120	273	13	13	33%	6%	58	-1.2	153/230/258	105	221	12	16	35%	6%	28	-1.2
✕Dustin Garneau 2018 · MLB	30	38→37	49→50	44→45	44	201/262/348	147	241	17	4	25%	7%	67	-0.5	201/275/344	143	257	15	4	27%	7%	72	-0.2	171/262/347	177	214	22	1	31%	8%	67	-0.2
✕Brandon Hicks 2016 · MLB	30	37→41	46→50	46→50	41	185/262/309	123	286	14	5	38%	8%	57	-1.2	196/262/312	116	334	13	10	42%	7%	57	-1.2	165/231/258	94	300	12	12	46%	7%	28	-1.7
✕Brooks Conrad 2010 · MLB	30	38→44	49→55	52→50	42	203/262/354	151	262	17	10	30%	7%	69	-0.4	228/294/405	177	299	21	11	30%	8%	95	+1.4	225/298/436	211	291	27	7	32%	9%	102	+0.6
✕Niko Vasquez 2019 · AAA	30	46→41	51→50	47→45	41	237/289/396	159	302	19	10	28%	6%	91	+1.1	210/267/324	114	300	13	9	33%	6%	63	-0.9	175/237/256	81	255	12	4	34%	5%	31	-1.2
✕Jason Smith 2007 · MLB	30	44→35	49→55	53→50	39	226/270/375	150	295	16	14	29%	5%	77	+0.1	205/241/351	146	290	17	8	35%	4%	58	-1.2	178/208/309	131	254	16	7	37%	3%	31	-1.7
✕Aaron Sisk 2007 · AA	28	39	50	48→45	42	207/264/358	151	266	19	10	30%	7%	70	-0.3	224/280/372	148	286	19	8	28%	7%	81	+0.4	227/285/382	154	278	22	3	26%	6%	84	+0.3
✕Jay Caligiuri 2009 · AA	29	43→37	49→50	47→30	47	222/297/370	148	269	18	7	24%	8%	88	+0.9	208/278/318	110	250	12	8	21%	8%	66	-0.6	168/249/251	84	192	11	2	19%	8%	35	-0.9
✕Tyler Saladino 2019 · MLB	30	45→47	43→45	50→55	46	220/285/327	107	284	11	16	26%	8%	71	-0.3	219/288/382	163	284	20	14	29%	8%	87	+0.8	199/271/381	183	248	24	14	30%	8%	76	+0.1