Kevin Padlo — OGILVIE

Kevin Padlo3B Iowa Cubs

Age 30 R/R 6'0" / 210 lbs AAA BB +5%HR -4% Svc 5.000 · Ctrl thru 2026 peak 0.1 · 2026

wRC+†74

AVG/OBP/SLG.195 / .285 / .332

PA250

HR6

SB5

K%32

BB%10

MLB%10%

Scouting · now → future

HIT

26→26

PWR

45→45

SPD

53→53

EYE

59→59

trajectory · 10 yrs

0.0peak

2026

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Arb-3

MLB Debut 2021

Service 5.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2026

First FA Year 2027

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	Arb-3	$0.6M	+0.1	$0.4M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$0.4M		$0.4M	+$0.0M

Career Projections (MLE)

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2014	18	ROK	Grand Junction Rockies	198	172	37	11	3	6	19	55	4	6	1	.215	.308	.419	.726	.203	.274	28	10	.309	95	-1	+1	+0	+1	+6	0.6
2015	19	A	Asheville Tourists	99	89	8	3	0	1	8	33	1	2	1	.090	.173	.157	.331	.067	.125	33	8	.167	-14	-13	+0	+0	+0	+3	-1.0
2016	20	A	2 teams	648	557	102	23	3	16	71	213	10	15	10	.183	.287	.321	.608	.138	.256	33	11	.269	64	-26	-1	+0	+2	+18	-0.7
2017	21	A+	3 teams	376	330	56	15	4	7	38	115	2	6	5	.170	.259	.303	.562	.133	.229	31	10	.249	49	-22	-1	+0	+1	+11	-1.1
2018	22	A+	Charlotte Stone Crabs	449	399	67	21	0	7	35	172	9	5	0	.168	.251	.273	.524	.105	.265	38	8	.235	38	-31	+1	+0	+2	+13	-1.6
2019	23	AA	2 teams	432	373	81	25	1	19	46	147	7	12	4	.217	.315	.442	.757	.225	.291	34	11	.328	109	+4	+1	+0	+2	+12	1.9
2021	25	AAA	2 teams	418	384	64	11	1	15	29	157	2	6	2	.167	.229	.318	.547	.151	.228	38	7	.243	44	-27	+0	+1	+1	+12	-1.2
2022	26	AAA	2 teams	378	350	69	14	2	10	22	120	4	13	2	.197	.253	.334	.587	.137	.266	32	6	.253	52	-20	+2	-2	+1	+11	-0.9
2023	27	AAA	2 teams	421	368	71	20	0	10	47	130	2	9	4	.193	.288	.329	.617	.136	.263	31	11	.277	70	-14	+0	-1	-8	+12	-1.0
2024	28	AAA	3 teams	369	320	48	12	0	10	38	130	4	10	1	.150	.249	.281	.530	.131	.204	35	10	.235	38	-26	+2	+0	+1	+10	-1.3
▸ 2026 Season
2026	30	MLB	CHC	250	220	42	10	0	6	26	81	2	5	1	.191	.282	.318	.600	.127	.274	32	10	.282	74	-7	+1	-0	+1	+7	0.1
▸ 2027+ Projections — Projections at projected PA · Park-neutral MLB equivalent · Marcel + aging curve
2027	31	MLB 20%	CHC	341	301	61	14	1	9	35	108	2	5	1	.203	.290	.346	.635	.143	.274	32	10	.282	74	-10	+1	-3	+1	+10	-0.2
2028	32	MLB 33%	CHC	322	284	57	13	1	8	33	102	2	4	1	.201	.288	.338	.626	.137	.274	32	10	.281	73	-10	+0	-4	+1	+9	-0.3
2029	33	MLB 43%	CHC	292	259	52	12	1	7	29	93	2	2	0	.201	.286	.336	.622	.135	.274	32	10	.277	70	-10	+0	-4	+1	+8	-0.5
2030	34	MLB 57%	CHC	249	220	44	10	1	6	25	81	2	1	0	.200	.287	.336	.624	.136	.272	33	10	.272	66	-9	+0	-5	+1	+7	-0.7
▸ Career Totals (MLE all levels + projections)
Career	—			5242	4626	859	214	18	137	501	1737	55	101	33	.186	.273	.329	.602	.143	.258	33	10	.267	62	-222	+7	-19	+10	+149	-7.7
/ 162G	—			650	574	107	27	2	17	62	215	7	13	4	.186	.274	.329	.603	.143	.259	33	10	.267	62	-28	+1	-2	+1	+18	-0.9

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2014	18	ROK	Grand Junction Rockies	198	160	48	15	4	8	31	38	4	6	1	.300	.426	.594	1.019	.294	.345	19	16	.434	190	+20	+1	—	—	+6	2.7
2015	19	A	Asheville Tourists	99	83	12	5	0	2	14	26	1	2	1	.145	.276	.277	.553	.133	.179	26	14	.259	56	-5	+0	—	—	+3	-0.2
2016	20	A	Bowling Green Hot Rods	509	414	95	22	3	16	79	134	7	14	9	.229	.361	.413	.774	.184	.293	26	16	.345	122	+13	-1	—	—	+14	2.7
2016	20	INTL	Brisbane Bandits	139	119	33	12	3	2	15	17	3	1	1	.277	.372	.479	.851	.202	.304	12	11	.371	142	+7	-0	—	—	+4	1.1
2017	21	A+	Charlotte Stone Crabs	259	220	49	13	3	6	35	60	0	4	5	.223	.329	.391	.720	.168	.272	23	14	.320	103	+1	-1	—	—	+7	0.7
2017	21	ROK	GCL Rays	21	17	2	0	1	0	3	1	1	1	0	.118	.286	.235	.521	.118	.125	5	14	.255	53	-1	+0	—	—	+1	-0.0
2017	21	INTL	Surprise Saguaros	96	85	22	3	2	0	8	22	1	1	0	.259	.330	.341	.671	.082	.338	23	8	.300	88	-1	+0	—	—	+3	0.2
2018	22	A+	Charlotte Stone Crabs	449	385	86	26	0	8	47	119	9	5	0	.223	.321	.353	.674	.130	.295	27	10	.304	91	-5	+1	—	—	+13	0.9
2019	23	AAA	Durham Bulls	155	131	38	11	1	9	21	46	3	1	0	.290	.400	.595	.995	.305	.382	30	14	.430	187	+15	+0	—	—	+4	2.0
2019	23	AA	Montgomery Biscuits	277	220	55	20	0	12	47	70	4	11	4	.250	.391	.505	.896	.255	.299	25	17	.387	154	+17	+1	—	—	+8	2.6
2021	25	MLB	Seattle Mariners	15	13	1	1	0	0	2	9	0	0	0	.077	.200	.154	.354	.077	.250	60	13	.179	-5	-2	+0	+1	+1	+0	0.1
2021	25	AAA	Tacoma Rainiers	403	357	80	14	2	20	41	114	2	6	2	.224	.307	.443	.750	.218	.265	28	10	.329	110	+5	+0	—	—	+11	1.7
2022	26	MLB	Pittsburgh Pirates	34	33	4	1	0	0	1	10	0	0	0	.121	.147	.152	.299	.030	.174	29	3	.138	-36	-5	+0	-2	+1	+1	-0.5
2022	26	AAA	Indianapolis Indians	344	306	78	16	2	12	32	90	4	13	2	.255	.333	.438	.771	.183	.320	26	9	.341	119	+8	+2	—	—	+10	1.9
2023	27	AAA	Salt Lake Bees	406	333	87	24	0	13	67	98	2	9	4	.261	.388	.450	.839	.189	.327	24	17	.373	143	+20	+0	—	—	+12	3.2
2023	27	ROK	ACL Angels	15	14	3	2	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	.214	.267	.357	.624	.143	.273	20	7	.278	71	-0	+0	—	—	+0	-0.0
2024	28	AAA	Iowa Cubs	276	227	43	12	0	9	41	79	2	9	1	.189	.319	.361	.680	.172	.234	29	15	.305	91	-3	+1	—	—	+8	0.7
2024	28	AA	Northwest Arkansas Naturals	30	28	4	0	0	1	2	10	0	0	0	.143	.200	.250	.450	.107	.176	33	7	.206	16	-3	+0	—	—	+1	-0.2
2024	28	INTL	Algodoneros de Guasave	63	54	5	2	0	2	6	31	2	1	0	.093	.210	.241	.450	.148	.143	49	10	.211	20	-6	+0	—	—	+2	-0.4
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			49	46	5	2	0	0	3	19	0	0	0	.109	.163	.152	.315	.043	.185	39	6	.151	-27	-7	+0	-1	+3	+1	-0.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Kevin Padlo (OGILVIE)	30	26	45	53	59	.195/.285/.332	.137	.274	6	5	32%	10%	74	-0.0	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Justin Leone 2008 · AAA	31	42→41	48→50	52→55	48	.212/.290/.355	.142	.274	16	14	28%	9%	81	+0.4	.199/.276/.341	.142	.265	16	16	30%	9%	71	-0.3	.169/.251/.300	.130	.226	15	14	31%	10%	50	-1.0
✕David Matranga 2008 · AAA	31	40	46→45	50	43	.204/.272/.327	.122	.263	14	12	28%	7%	66	-0.6	.217/.291/.342	.125	.292	13	9	29%	8%	78	+0.2	.211/.297/.329	.119	.288	12	5	29%	9%	75	+0.0
✕Zack Short 2023 · MLB	28	37→39	46→50	46→45	50	.191/.285/.319	.128	.261	14	9	31%	11%	70	-0.3	.189/.283/.313	.124	.261	14	10	31%	11%	68	-0.5	.168/.270/.287	.119	.228	14	8	31%	11%	54	-0.9
✕Ryan Cordell 2021 · MLB	29	42→41	45→55	49→50	40	.211/.264/.333	.122	.283	13	11	30%	6%	63	-0.8	.207/.271/.370	.163	.326	22	14	41%	7%	77	+0.1	.151/.220/.316	.164	.233	26	18	47%	7%	40	-0.9
✕Brandon Hicks 2016 · MLB	30	37→40	46→50	47→50	40	.188/.262/.313	.125	.291	14	6	38%	8%	58	-1.2	.194/.263/.307	.113	.327	12	10	41%	8%	57	-1.2	.169/.240/.260	.091	.301	11	12	45%	8%	32	-1.5
✕Brandon Larson 2006 · MLB	30	43→42	49→50	45	45	.221/.292/.366	.145	.284	17	7	28%	8%	85	+0.7	.227/.277/.383	.156	.291	20	6	29%	6%	82	+0.5	.217/.262/.366	.149	.273	21	5	29%	5%	68	-0.2
✕Michael Pérez 2023 · MLB	30	34	49→50	45→40	46	.185/.257/.324	.139	.228	18	4	28%	8%	59	-1.1	.194/.268/.328	.134	.254	17	4	30%	8%	65	-0.7	.175/.254/.294	.120	.232	15	0	31%	8%	49	-0.8
✕D.J. Peterson 2022 · AAA	30	40→44	48→55	50→40	39	.209/.262/.347	.138	.280	16	10	31%	5%	67	-0.5	.208/.279/.374	.166	.290	21	6	34%	7%	82	+0.5	.176/.257/.344	.168	.236	23	1	35%	8%	62	-0.5
✕Seth Bynum 2011 · AAA	30	41→44	51→55	49→50	38	.216/.260/.371	.155	.290	19	10	32%	6%	72	-0.2	.208/.257/.339	.131	.293	15	11	33%	6%	63	-0.9	.195/.247/.313	.118	.278	13	8	34%	5%	48	-1.2
✕Stevie Berman 2023 · AAA	28	39	46→50	48→40	48	.200/.287/.330	.129	.255	14	5	26%	9%	73	-0.1	.215/.296/.335	.120	.285	13	7	27%	9%	79	+0.3	.199/.298/.266	.067	.267	9	0	27%	12%	60	-0.2
✕Brett Carroll 2013 · MLB	30	42→45	47→55	47→50	43	.215/.279/.349	.135	.272	15	11	26%	6%	75	-0.0	.208/.273/.344	.136	.278	16	11	30%	7%	71	-0.3	.183/.263/.334	.151	.230	22	11	31%	8%	60	-0.5
✕Taylor Featherston 2019 · MLB	29	38→45	45→50	54→50	37	.192/.249/.311	.118	.281	13	12	35%	6%	52	-1.6	.183/.238/.309	.126	.331	15	9	47%	5%	47	-1.9	.155/.208/.283	.128	.303	17	5	52%	4%	25	-2.6
✕Jake Hager 2022 · MLB	29	36→46	48→50	52→50	40	.194/.248/.334	.140	.266	17	10	34%	6%	57	-1.2	.203/.262/.317	.114	.278	10	9	29%	7%	59	-1.1	.194/.252/.288	.094	.273	7	7	30%	6%	44	-0.8
✕Jason Smith 2007 · MLB	30	44→35	49→55	53→50	39	.225/.269/.376	.151	.292	16	13	28%	5%	76	+0.1	.207/.243/.354	.147	.291	17	9	34%	4%	60	-1.0	.178/.208/.309	.131	.254	16	7	37%	3%	31	-1.7
✕Caleb Hamilton 2023 · MLB	28	36	50→45	48→45	47	.189/.279/.338	.149	.279	19	6	37%	11%	72	-0.2	.177/.257/.305	.128	.279	16	7	40%	9%	55	-1.4	.109/.194/.201	.091	.171	14	5	44%	9%	0	-1.3
✕Brooks Conrad 2010 · MLB	30	37→44	50→55	52→50	42	.199/.257/.351	.151	.256	17	10	30%	7%	66	-0.6	.225/.291/.401	.176	.294	21	11	30%	8%	93	+1.3	.223/.297/.436	.213	.288	28	7	32%	9%	101	+0.6
✕Brian O'Keefe 2023 · AAA	30	42	51→55	45→40	40	.218/.273/.375	.158	.294	20	5	33%	6%	79	+0.3	.204/.265/.371	.167	.260	21	4	30%	7%	75	-0.0	.182/.248/.350	.167	.219	22	2	29%	8%	59	-0.5
✕Chris Owings 2023 · MLB	31	40→50	47→50	50→55	44	.205/.272/.343	.138	.276	15	13	31%	8%	70	-0.3	.203/.276/.336	.133	.294	16	11	34%	8%	70	-0.3	.193/.274/.320	.127	.282	16	11	35%	9%	62	-0.5
✕Adam Fox 2011 · AAA	29	38→44	47→50	50→45	41	.201/.252/.331	.130	.251	16	9	27%	5%	58	-1.2	.202/.247/.332	.130	.256	13	9	26%	5%	56	-1.3	.183/.221/.321	.138	.225	13	6	25%	4%	37	-1.1
✕Jonathan Davis 2022 · MLB	30	41→51	45	52→55	47	.202/.302/.325	.123	.271	12	19	28%	9%	79	+0.3	.222/.307/.336	.114	.302	10	22	28%	9%	83	+0.6	.221/.303/.332	.112	.308	10	22	29%	9%	76	+0.0

Contract

Career Projections (MLE) Show advanced cols

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Career Path Comps

Career Projections (MLE)