Brett Wisely
2B Gwinnett Stripers| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 25 | AAASF | 181 | .301/.391/.487 | 6 | 5 | 104 | — | .264/.330/.393 |
| 2024 | 25 | MLBSF | 272 | .238/.281/.345 | 4 | 2 | 76 | 0.4 | |
| 2025 | 26 | AAAATL | 351 | .256/.338/.390 | 7 | 12 | 61 | — | .217/.272/.311 |
| 2025 | 26 | MLBATL | 63 | .185/.279/.315 | 1 | 1 | 65 | 0.0 | |
| 2026 | 27 | AAAATL | 517 | .281/.402/.436 | 11 | 29 | 91 | — | .236/.327/.352 |
| 2027PROJ45% MLB | 28 | MLBATL | 107 | .222/.297/.340 | 2 | 4 | 81 | 0.1 | |
| 2028PROJ53% MLB | 29 | MLBATL | 144 | .219/.294/.333 | 3 | 4 | 78 | 0.0 | |
| 2029PROJ58% MLB | 30 | MLBATL | 157 | .216/.291/.325 | 3 | 4 | 75 | -0.1 |
Tools · Splits · ContractCON 40 / POW 40
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 22 | A+ | Bowling Green Hot Rods | — | 134 | 112 | 36 | 6 | 0 | 8 | 20 | 29 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 321 | 424 | 589 | 1.014 | 268 | 364 | 22 | 15 | 434 | 124 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 22 | A | Charleston RiverDogs | — | 306 | 274 | 80 | 13 | 1 | 11 | 28 | 69 | 1 | 28 | 7 | 292 | 360 | 467 | 827 | 175 | 352 | 23 | 9 | 364 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | AAA | Durham Bulls | — | 23 | 21 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 238 | 273 | 333 | 606 | 95 | 312 | 26 | 4 | 260 | 43 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | AA | Montgomery Biscuits | — | 500 | 430 | 118 | 23 | 6 | 15 | 62 | 104 | 5 | 31 | 11 | 274 | 372 | 460 | 833 | 186 | 329 | 21 | 12 | 369 | 92 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | MLB | San Francisco Giants | — | 131 | 120 | 21 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 40 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 175 | 233 | 267 | 499 | 92 | 241 | 31 | 7 | 225 | 41 | -9 | +0 | +3 | +1 | +3 | -0.2 |
| 2023 | 24 | AAA | Sacramento River Cats | — | 280 | 221 | 63 | 20 | 1 | 6 | 47 | 64 | 5 | 7 | 3 | 285 | 421 | 466 | 887 | 181 | 370 | 23 | 17 | 389 | 112 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | MLB | San Francisco Giants | — | 272 | 252 | 60 | 13 | 1 | 4 | 13 | 65 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 238 | 281 | 345 | 626 | 107 | 301 | 24 | 5 | 276 | 76 | -8 | -1 | +5 | +2 | +6 | 0.4 |
| 2024 | 25 | AAA | Sacramento River Cats | — | 181 | 156 | 47 | 9 | 1 | 6 | 23 | 28 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 301 | 391 | 487 | 878 | 186 | 333 | 15 | 13 | 385 | 104 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 26 | MLB | Atlanta Braves | — | 63 | 54 | 10 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 14 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 185 | 279 | 315 | 594 | 130 | 231 | 22 | 11 | 264 | 65 | -3 | -0 | +0 | +1 | +1 | 0.0 |
| 2025 | 26 | AAA | Gwinnett Stripers | — | 351 | 308 | 79 | 18 | 1 | 7 | 34 | 67 | 4 | 12 | 0 | 256 | 338 | 390 | 728 | 133 | 304 | 19 | 10 | 325 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 27 | AAA | Gwinnett Stripers | — | 517 | 424 | 119 | 29 | 2 | 11 | 77 | 104 | 9 | 29 | 5 | 281 | 402 | 436 | 838 | 156 | 345 | 20 | 15 | 374 | 91 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MLB Career | — | — | 466 | 426 | 91 | 22 | 1 | 7 | 29 | 119 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 214 | 267 | 319 | 586 | 106 | 276 | 26 | 6 | 260 | 62 | -21 | -1 | +8 | +5 | +10 | 0.1 | ||
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 22 | A+ MLE | Bowling Green Hot Rods | — | 134 | 117 | 31 | 4 | 0 | 7 | 15 | 38 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 265 | 348 | 479 | 827 | 214 | 314 | 28 | 11 | 351 | 124 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 22 | A MLE | Charleston RiverDogs | — | 306 | 283 | 67 | 11 | 1 | 8 | 19 | 97 | 1 | 28 | 7 | 237 | 287 | 367 | 655 | 131 | 323 | 32 | 6 | 283 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | AAA MLE | Durham Bulls | — | 23 | 21 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 238 | 273 | 333 | 606 | 95 | 285 | 30 | 4 | 232 | 43 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | AA MLE | Montgomery Biscuits | — | 500 | 448 | 106 | 19 | 6 | 13 | 44 | 123 | 5 | 31 | 11 | 237 | 312 | 393 | 705 | 156 | 290 | 25 | 9 | 304 | 92 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | MLB MLE | San Francisco Giants | — | 131 | 120 | 21 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 40 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 175 | 233 | 267 | 499 | 92 | 241 | 31 | 7 | 229 | 41 | -9 | +0 | +3 | +1 | +3 | -0.2 |
| 2023 | 24 | AAA MLE | Sacramento River Cats | — | 280 | 233 | 60 | 18 | 1 | 5 | 35 | 71 | 5 | 7 | 3 | 258 | 366 | 408 | 774 | 150 | 329 | 25 | 12 | 334 | 112 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | MLB MLE | San Francisco Giants | — | 272 | 252 | 61 | 13 | 1 | 4 | 13 | 65 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 242 | 285 | 349 | 634 | 107 | 301 | 24 | 5 | 281 | 76 | -8 | -1 | +5 | +2 | +6 | 0.4 |
| 2024 | 25 | AAA MLE | Sacramento River Cats | — | 181 | 163 | 43 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 16 | 31 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 264 | 330 | 393 | 722 | 129 | 302 | 17 | 9 | 322 | 104 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 26 | MLB MLE | Atlanta Braves | — | 63 | 54 | 10 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 14 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 185 | 279 | 315 | 594 | 130 | 231 | 22 | 11 | 264 | 65 | -3 | -0 | +0 | +1 | +1 | 0.0 |
| 2025 | 26 | AAA MLE | Gwinnett Stripers | — | 351 | 322 | 70 | 13 | 1 | 5 | 20 | 82 | 4 | 12 | 0 | 217 | 272 | 311 | 582 | 93 | 266 | 23 | 6 | 258 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 27 | AAA MLE | Gwinnett Stripers | — | 517 | 449 | 106 | 24 | 2 | 8 | 52 | 125 | 9 | 29 | 5 | 236 | 327 | 352 | 679 | 116 | 300 | 24 | 10 | 303 | 91 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 22 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 440 | 400 | 98 | 15 | 1 | 15 | 34 | 135 | 1 | 31 | 8 | 245 | 306 | 400 | 706 | 155 | 327 | 31 | 8 | 304 | 92 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 22 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 440 | 386 | 116 | 19 | 1 | 19 | 48 | 98 | 1 | 31 | 8 | 301 | 379 | 503 | 882 | 202 | 355 | 22 | 11 | 385 | 92 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 523 | 470 | 111 | 21 | 6 | 13 | 44 | 130 | 5 | 32 | 11 | 236 | 308 | 389 | 698 | 153 | 297 | 25 | 8 | 301 | 90 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 523 | 451 | 123 | 25 | 6 | 15 | 63 | 110 | 5 | 32 | 11 | 273 | 368 | 455 | 823 | 182 | 328 | 21 | 12 | 364 | 90 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 411 | 353 | 82 | 23 | 1 | 7 | 44 | 111 | 5 | 9 | 4 | 232 | 326 | 363 | 688 | 130 | 314 | 27 | 11 | 301 | 90 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 411 | 341 | 84 | 25 | 1 | 8 | 56 | 104 | 5 | 9 | 4 | 246 | 361 | 396 | 757 | 150 | 326 | 25 | 14 | 337 | 90 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | MLB MLE | 2 teams | — | 453 | 415 | 105 | 20 | 2 | 9 | 29 | 96 | 2 | 7 | 7 | 253 | 305 | 376 | 681 | 123 | 306 | 21 | 6 | 297 | 87 | -7 | -1 | +5 | +2 | +10 | 0.9 |
| 2024 | 25 | MLB RAW | 2 teams | — | 453 | 408 | 107 | 22 | 2 | 10 | 36 | 93 | 2 | 7 | 7 | 262 | 325 | 400 | 725 | 137 | 314 | 21 | 8 | 320 | 87 | -7 | -1 | +5 | +2 | +10 | 0.9 |
| 2025 | 26 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 414 | 376 | 80 | 17 | 1 | 6 | 27 | 96 | 4 | 13 | 1 | 213 | 273 | 311 | 584 | 98 | 267 | 23 | 7 | 259 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 26 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 414 | 362 | 89 | 22 | 1 | 8 | 41 | 81 | 4 | 13 | 1 | 246 | 329 | 378 | 708 | 133 | 293 | 20 | 10 | 315 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 27 | AAA MLE | Gwinnett Stripers | — | 517 | 449 | 106 | 24 | 2 | 8 | 52 | 125 | 9 | 29 | 5 | 236 | 327 | 352 | 679 | 116 | 306 | 24 | 10 | 303 | 91 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 27 | AAA RAW | Gwinnett Stripers | — | 517 | 424 | 119 | 29 | 2 | 11 | 77 | 104 | 9 | 29 | 5 | 281 | 402 | 436 | 838 | 156 | 345 | 20 | 15 | 374 | 91 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 22 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 440 | 402 | 98 | 15 | 1 | 15 | 34 | 135 | 1 | 31 | 8 | 244 | 306 | 398 | 704 | 154 | 320 | 31 | 8 | 304 | 92 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 523 | 469 | 111 | 21 | 6 | 13 | 44 | 130 | 5 | 32 | 11 | 237 | 308 | 390 | 698 | 154 | 290 | 25 | 8 | 301 | 90 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 411 | 359 | 82 | 23 | 1 | 7 | 44 | 111 | 5 | 9 | 4 | 228 | 326 | 357 | 682 | 128 | 301 | 27 | 11 | 301 | 90 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | MLB MLE | 2 teams | — | 453 | 419 | 105 | 20 | 2 | 9 | 29 | 96 | 2 | 7 | 7 | 251 | 305 | 372 | 677 | 122 | 301 | 21 | 6 | 297 | 87 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 26 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 414 | 380 | 80 | 17 | 1 | 6 | 27 | 96 | 4 | 13 | 1 | 211 | 273 | 308 | 581 | 97 | 261 | 23 | 7 | 259 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 27 | AAA MLE | Gwinnett Stripers | — | 517 | 451 | 106 | 24 | 2 | 8 | 52 | 125 | 9 | 29 | 5 | 235 | 327 | 350 | 678 | 115 | 300 | 24 | 10 | 303 | 91 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 25 | MLB MLE | 2 teams | — | 453 | 419 | 105 | 20 | 2 | 9 | 29 | 96 | 2 | 7 | 7 | 251 | 305 | 372 | 677 | 122 | 301 | 21 | 6 | 297 | 87 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 26 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 414 | 380 | 80 | 17 | 1 | 6 | 27 | 96 | 4 | 13 | 1 | 211 | 273 | 308 | 581 | 97 | 261 | 23 | 7 | 259 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 27 | AAA MLE | Gwinnett Stripers | — | 517 | 451 | 106 | 24 | 2 | 8 | 52 | 125 | 9 | 29 | 5 | 235 | 327 | 350 | 678 | 115 | 300 | 24 | 10 | 303 | 91 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB MLE | ATL | 45% | 380 | 340 | 76 | 16 | 2 | 7 | 32 | 87 | 5 | 14 | 3 | 222 | 297 | 340 | 637 | 118 | 274 | 23 | 8 | 288 | 81 | -9 | +2 | +2 | +1 | +8 | 0.4 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB CTX | ATL | 45% | 107 | 96 | 20 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 25 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 222 | 297 | 340 | 637 | 118 | 274 | 23 | 8 | 288 | 81 | -2 | +0 | +0 | +0 | +2 | 0.1 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 29 | MLB MLE | ATL | 53% | 272 | 244 | 54 | 11 | 1 | 5 | 23 | 63 | 3 | 8 | 2 | 219 | 294 | 333 | 628 | 114 | 273 | 23 | 8 | 284 | 78 | -7 | +1 | -0 | +1 | +6 | 0.1 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB MLE | ATL | 58% | 272 | 244 | 53 | 11 | 1 | 5 | 23 | 64 | 3 | 7 | 2 | 216 | 291 | 325 | 616 | 109 | 271 | 24 | 8 | 279 | 75 | -8 | +1 | -1 | +1 | +6 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB CTX | ATL | 53% | 144 | 129 | 29 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 12 | 33 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 219 | 294 | 333 | 628 | 114 | 273 | 23 | 8 | 284 | 78 | -4 | +0 | -0 | +1 | +3 | 0.0 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB CTX | ATL | 58% | 157 | 141 | 31 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 13 | 37 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 216 | 291 | 325 | 616 | 109 | 271 | 24 | 8 | 279 | 75 | -5 | +0 | -1 | +1 | +3 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 767 | 696 | 151 | 34 | 3 | 13 | 54 | 189 | 6 | 13 | 7 | 217 | 279 | 330 | 610 | 114 | 276 | 25 | 7 | 269 | 84 | -29 | -0 | +8 | +6 | +17 | 0.1 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 590 | 129 | 29 | 3 | 11 | 46 | 160 | 5 | 11 | 6 | 219 | 281 | 334 | 615 | 115 | 278 | 25 | 7 | 269 | 84 | -25 | -0 | +7 | +5 | +14 | 0.1 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 3540 | 3164 | 736 | 152 | 16 | 72 | 296 | 875 | 35 | 144 | 42 | 233 | 305 | 359 | 664 | 126 | 296 | 25 | 8 | 292 | 84 | -41 | +1 | +8 | +7 | +27 | 0.3 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 581 | 135 | 28 | 3 | 13 | 54 | 161 | 6 | 26 | 8 | 232 | 304 | 358 | 662 | 126 | 296 | 25 | 8 | 292 | 84 | -21 | +1 | +4 | +4 | +14 | 0.1 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 AAAGwinnett Stripers · 517 PAwOBA .367 → .303 (−64)K% 20.1% → 24.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.12% | ÷1.000 | ×1.200 | — | — | 24.14% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 14.51% | ÷1.000 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.003 | 10.04% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.74% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.003 | 1.64% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.06% | ÷1.000 | ×0.930 | ×0.967 | ×1.003 | 21.71% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.06% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | ×0.967 | ×1.003 | 7.30% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.62% | ÷1.000 | ×0.970 | ×0.967 | ×1.003 | 0.59% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.44% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.003 | 2.41% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.967.
Result: wOBA .367 → .303; ISO .156 → .123; BABIP .345 → .300. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AAAGwinnett Stripers · 351 PAwOBA .317 → .258 (−59)K% 19.1% → 23.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 19.09% | ÷0.976 | ×1.200 | — | — | 23.46% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.12% | ÷1.140 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.018 | 5.62% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.14% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.018 | 1.09% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.99% | ÷0.968 | ×0.930 | ×0.964 | ×1.018 | 20.72% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.47% | ÷1.162 | ×0.830 | ×0.964 | ×1.018 | 5.23% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.41% | ÷0.900 | ×0.970 | ×0.964 | ×1.018 | 0.44% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.90% | ÷0.961 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.018 | 2.15% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 92, 1B 94, 2B 132, 3B 80, K 95, BB 128 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.964.
Result: wOBA .317 → .258; ISO .133 → .100; BABIP .304 → .266. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AAASacramento River Cats · 181 PAwOBA .377 → .322 (−55)K% 15.5% → 17.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 15.47% | ÷1.081 | ×1.200 | — | — | 17.17% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.71% | ÷1.032 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.033 | 8.78% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.033 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.22% | ÷0.976 | ×0.930 | ×0.970 | ×1.033 | 23.12% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.03% | ÷1.052 | ×0.830 | ×0.970 | ×1.033 | 5.56% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.78% | ÷1.091 | ×0.970 | ×0.970 | ×1.033 | 0.70% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.69% | ÷1.010 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.033 | 3.35% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 102, 1B 95, 2B 110, 3B 118, K 116, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.970.
Result: wOBA .377 → .322; ISO .186 → .146; BABIP .333 → .302. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AAASacramento River Cats · 280 PAwOBA .383 → .334 (−49)K% 22.9% → 25.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 22.86% | ÷1.087 | ×1.200 | — | — | 25.24% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 16.79% | ÷0.981 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.048 | 12.38% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.79% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.048 | 1.76% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.93% | ÷0.992 | ×0.930 | ×0.950 | ×1.048 | 21.40% |
| Doubles /BIP | 12.74% | ÷0.992 | ×0.830 | ×0.950 | ×1.048 | 10.61% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.64% | ÷0.956 | ×0.970 | ×0.950 | ×1.048 | 0.64% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.82% | ÷1.057 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.048 | 2.65% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 111, 1B 98, 2B 98, 3B 91, K 117, BB 96 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 27.2 → +4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .383 → .334; ISO .181 → .153; BABIP .370 → .329. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 AAMontgomery Biscuits · 500 PAwOBA .360 → .304 (−56)K% 20.8% → 24.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.80% | ÷1.032 | ×1.220 | — | — | 24.59% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.20% | ÷0.984 | ×0.680 | — | ×1.027 | 8.66% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.00% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×1.027 | 0.86% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.70% | ÷1.001 | ×0.920 | ×0.961 | ×1.027 | 20.59% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.06% | ÷1.090 | ×0.910 | ×0.961 | ×1.027 | 5.81% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.84% | ÷0.955 | ×0.880 | ×0.961 | ×1.027 | 1.67% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.60% | ÷0.970 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.027 | 3.90% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 94, 1B 100, 2B 118, 3B 91, K 106, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.961.
Result: wOBA .360 → .304; ISO .186 → .160; BABIP .329 → .290. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 AAADurham Bulls · 23 PAwOBA .265 → .232 (−33)K% 26.1% → 31.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 26.09% | ÷0.999 | ×1.200 | — | — | 31.34% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 4.35% | ÷1.059 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.050 | 2.97% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.050 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.00% | ÷0.988 | ×0.930 | — | ×1.050 | 19.77% |
| Doubles /BIP | 13.33% | ÷1.091 | ×0.830 | — | ×1.050 | 10.65% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.970 | — | ×1.050 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.034 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.050 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 107, 1B 98, 2B 118, 3B 130, K 100, BB 112 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.2 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .265 → .232; ISO .095 → .077; BABIP .312 → .285. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 ACharleston RiverDogs · 306 PAwOBA .356 → .283 (−73)K% 22.5% → 31.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 22.55% | ÷0.966 | ×1.360 | — | — | 31.75% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.15% | ÷1.028 | ×0.690 | — | — | 6.14% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.33% | — | ×0.780 | — | — | 0.25% |
| Singles /BIP | 26.83% | ÷0.968 | ×0.920 | ×0.979 | — | 24.95% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.34% | ÷0.871 | ×0.830 | ×0.979 | — | 5.92% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.49% | ÷1.150 | ×0.910 | ×0.979 | — | 0.38% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.37% | ÷1.026 | ×0.800 | — | — | 4.18% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 105, 1B 94, 2B 74, 3B 130, K 93, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.0 → +0.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.979.
Result: wOBA .356 → .283; ISO .175 → .133; BABIP .352 → .323. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 A+Bowling Green Hot Rods · 134 PAwOBA .429 → .351 (−78)K% 21.6% → 28.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 21.64% | ÷1.027 | ×1.350 | — | — | 28.45% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 14.93% | ÷0.953 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.012 | 11.25% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.810 | — | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 26.51% | ÷0.957 | ×0.910 | ×0.958 | ×1.012 | 24.43% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.23% | ÷1.135 | ×0.830 | ×0.958 | ×1.012 | 5.13% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.820 | ×0.958 | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 9.64% | ÷0.978 | ×0.830 | — | ×1.012 | 8.28% |
Factors used: level-wide A+ factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 96, 1B 91, 2B 127, 3B 130, K 105, BB 91 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.958.
Result: wOBA .429 → .351; ISO .268 → .216; BABIP .364 → .314. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).