Jordan Walker

RF St. Louis Cardinals

Age 25 R/R 6'6" / 250 lbs MLB HR -14%BB -5% Svc 3.256 · Ctrl thru 2029

Overview

MLB40-MANArb-1FA 2030

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2024	22	AAASTL	377	.263/.328/.427	9	4	78	—	.236/.285/.365
2024	22	MLBSTL	178	.201/.256/.366	5	1	73	-1.3
2025	23	AAA/AASTL	60	.185/.267/.352	2	1	33	—	.145/.217/.255
2025	23	MLBSTL	396	.215/.278/.306	6	10	67	-1.8
2026	24	MLBSTL	667	.269/.329/.466	29	22	125	2.9
2027PROJ	25	MLBSTL	614	.250/.311/.427	24	29	109	1.4
2028PROJ	26	MLBSTL	614	.250/.311/.426	24	29	108	1.4
2029PROJ	27	MLBSTL	606	.249/.309/.423	23	28	107	1.3

Last 3 seasons WAR -0.2 · Next 3 projected WAR 4.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2029Service3.256First FA2030

2027Arb-1$3M2028Arb-2$6M2029Arb-3$8M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2024-2026

Avg EV90

Speed90

Bat Spd90

Barrel%75

xwOBA52

Form.222/.281/.377 ▼▼ rolling true talent (60d window) · proj .251/.309/.435

CompsJustin Maxwell (age 25) · Jonny DeLuca (age 26) · Chris Young (age 25)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†vL 113109vR 97

AVG/OBP/SLG.250 / .311 / .427

PA614

HR24

SB29

K%27

BB%7

BABIP309

ISO179

MLB%100%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$17M ctrl surplus

Tools · Recent Form · Splits · ContractCON 35 / POW 55

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2024-2026

CONTACT35

xAVG

320.237

POWER55

Barrel%

7511.9

Avg EV

9092.3

Bat Spd

9077.7

EYE45

scouting grade only

SPEED60

Sprint

9029.1

Recent Formrolling true talent ⓘ

K%33%▼▼36% over 103 PA (60d) · proj 27%

BB%7%·7% over 103 PA (60d) · proj 7%

ISO.155▼.105 over 95 AB (60d) · proj .184

HR/BB5.3%▼3.4% over 59 BBE (60d) · proj 6.3%

BABIP.303▼.228 over 57 BIP (60d) · proj .308

SLASH.222/.281/.377▼▼proj .251/.309/.435

Platoon Splits2024-2026 · 681 PA

vs LHP

vs RHP

Edge

187

494

—

wRC+

107

◀◀L

wOBA

326

271

◀◀L

ISO

180

127

◀◀L

BABIP

314

298

◀L

27.8%

32.2%

◀L

BB%

9.1%

6.1%

◀◀L

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Arb-1

MLB Debut 2023

Service 3.256 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2029

First FA Year 2030

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Arb-1	$3M	+1.5	$12M	+$9M
2028	Arb-2	$6M	+1.4	$10M	+$5M
2029	Arb-3	$8M	+1.3	$9M	+$3M
Totals		$16M		$31M	+$17M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2021	19	A+	Peoria Chiefs	—	244	226	66	14	3	8	15	66	3	13	2	292	344	487	831	195	382	27	6	366	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	19	A	Palm Beach Cardinals	—	122	99	37	11	1	6	18	21	3	1	0	374	483	687	1.170	313	419	17	15	493	180	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	20	AA	Springfield Cardinals	—	536	461	141	31	3	19	58	116	9	22	5	306	394	510	904	204	365	22	11	393	122	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	20	INTL	Salt River Rafters	—	90	77	22	6	0	5	10	23	1	3	2	286	375	558	933	273	333	26	11	398	155	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	21	MLB	St. Louis Cardinals	—	465	420	116	19	2	16	37	104	6	7	4	276	343	445	789	169	331	22	8	350	126	+14	-0	-12	-6	+10	0.6
2023	21	AAA	Memphis Redbirds	—	135	113	27	6	0	4	16	32	4	4	0	239	353	398	752	159	291	24	12	337	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	22	MLB	St. Louis Cardinals	—	178	164	33	10	1	5	10	50	2	1	0	201	256	366	622	165	252	28	6	274	73	-6	+0	-5	-6	+4	-1.3
2024	22	AAA	Memphis Redbirds	—	377	342	90	23	3	9	31	73	2	4	3	263	328	427	755	164	309	19	8	334	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	MLB	St. Louis Cardinals	—	396	363	78	13	1	6	29	126	3	10	3	215	278	306	584	91	310	32	7	267	67	-16	+1	-7	-5	+9	-1.8
2025	23	AAA	Memphis Redbirds	—	17	16	4	0	0	0	1	6	0	0	0	250	294	250	544		400	35	6	254	28	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	AA	Springfield Cardinals	—	43	38	6	3	0	2	5	12	0	1	0	158	256	395	651	237	167	28	12	289	35	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	24	MLB	St. Louis Cardinals	—	667	609	164	33	0	29	50	174	4	22	5	269	329	466	795	197	329	26	7	349	125	+20	+2	-1	-7	+14	2.9
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	1706	1556	391	75	4	56	126	454	15	40	12	251	313	413	726	161	318	27	7	322	104	+9	+3	-25	-24	+37	-0.1
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2021	19	A+ MLE	Peoria Chiefs	—	244	231	55	12	2	6	10	89	3	13	2	238	279	385	664	147	360	36	4	286	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	19	A MLE	Palm Beach Cardinals	—	122	105	36	10	1	6	12	28	3	1	0	343	425	629	1.054	286	394	23	10	434	180	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	20	AA MLE	Springfield Cardinals	—	536	479	135	30	3	15	40	138	9	22	5	282	348	451	799	169	352	26	7	348	122	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	21	MLB MLE	St. Louis Cardinals	—	465	420	116	18	2	17	37	104	6	7	4	276	343	450	793	174	331	22	8	354	126	+14	-0	-12	-6	+10	0.6
2023	21	AAA MLE	Memphis Redbirds	—	135	118	24	5	0	3	11	39	4	4	0	203	293	322	615	119	269	29	8	284	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	22	MLB MLE	St. Louis Cardinals	—	178	164	33	10	1	5	10	50	2	1	0	201	256	366	622	165	252	28	6	276	73	-6	+0	-5	-6	+4	-1.3
2024	22	AAA MLE	Memphis Redbirds	—	377	351	83	21	3	6	22	92	2	4	3	236	285	365	650	128	299	24	6	284	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	MLB MLE	St. Louis Cardinals	—	396	364	77	12	1	6	28	126	3	10	3	212	273	299	573	88	310	32	7	267	67	-16	+1	-7	-5	+9	-1.8
2025	23	AAA MLE	Memphis Redbirds	—	17	16	3	0	0	0	1	8	0	0	0	188	235	188	423		398	47	6	210	28	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	AA MLE	Springfield Cardinals	—	43	39	5	3	0	1	4	15	0	1	0	128	209	282	491	154	155	35	9	220	35	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	24	MLB MLE	St. Louis Cardinals	—	667	610	165	32	0	31	49	174	4	22	5	270	329	475	804	205	329	26	7	353	125	+20	+2	-1	-7	+14	2.9
2021	19	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	366	335	90	22	3	11	23	117	6	14	2	269	327	451	778	182	378	32	6	335	113	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	19	A+ RAW	2 teams	—	366	325	103	25	4	14	33	87	6	14	2	317	390	548	938	231	394	24	9	408	113	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	20	AA MLE	2 teams	—	626	559	159	35	4	18	47	162	10	25	7	284	351	458	809	174	362	26	8	348	122	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	20	AA RAW	2 teams	—	626	538	163	37	3	24	68	139	10	25	7	303	391	517	908	214	361	22	11	394	122	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	21	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	600	538	141	24	2	20	48	143	10	11	4	262	334	426	760	164	319	24	8	339	115	+11	+1	-12	-6	+13	0.6
2023	21	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	600	533	143	25	2	20	53	136	10	11	4	268	346	435	781	167	323	23	9	347	115	+11	+1	-12	-6	+13	0.6
2024	22	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	555	515	117	31	4	12	32	142	4	5	3	227	278	373	650	146	288	26	6	281	77	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	22	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	555	506	123	33	4	14	41	123	4	5	3	243	305	407	712	164	292	22	7	315	77	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	MLB MLE	3 teams	—	456	420	86	15	1	8	32	148	3	11	3	205	266	302	568	98	294	32	7	260	62	-20	+1	-7	-5	+10	-2.1
2025	23	MLB RAW	3 teams	—	456	417	88	16	1	8	35	144	3	11	3	211	277	312	589	101	301	32	8	269	62	-20	+1	-7	-5	+10	-2.1
2026	24	MLB MLE	St. Louis Cardinals	—	667	610	165	32	0	31	49	174	4	22	5	270	329	475	804	205	328	26	7	353	125	+20	+2	-1	-7	+14	2.9
2026	24	MLB RAW	St. Louis Cardinals	—	667	609	164	33	0	29	50	174	4	22	5	269	329	466	795	197	329	26	7	349	125	+20	+2	-1	-7	+14	2.9
2021	19	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	366	334	90	22	3	11	23	117	6	14	2	269	327	452	779	183	371	32	6	335	113	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	20	AA MLE	2 teams	—	626	564	159	35	4	18	47	162	10	25	7	282	351	454	805	172	352	26	8	348	122	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	21	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	600	537	141	24	2	20	48	143	10	11	4	263	334	426	760	164	317	24	8	339	115	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	22	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	555	514	117	31	4	12	32	142	4	5	3	228	278	374	651	146	284	26	6	281	77	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	MLB MLE	3 teams	—	456	418	86	15	1	8	32	148	3	11	3	206	266	304	570	98	299	32	7	260	62	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	24	MLB MLE	St. Louis Cardinals	—	667	609	165	32	0	31	49	174	4	22	5	271	329	476	805	205	329	26	7	353	125	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	22	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	555	514	117	31	4	12	32	142	4	5	3	228	278	374	651	146	284	26	6	281	77	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	MLB MLE	3 teams	—	456	418	86	15	1	8	32	148	3	11	3	206	266	304	570	98	299	32	7	260	62	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	24	MLB MLE	St. Louis Cardinals	—	667	609	165	32	0	31	49	174	4	22	5	271	329	476	805	205	329	26	7	353	125	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	25	MLB MLE	STL	100%	587	535	134	24	1	24	43	157	4	28	5	251	312	435	747	184	308	27	7	329	109	+6	+4	-3	-6	+13	1.5
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	25	MLB CTX	STL	100%	614	560	140	26	1	24	45	164	4	29	6	250	311	427	737	176	309	27	7	325	109	+6	+3	-3	-7	+13	1.4
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	STL	100%	614	560	140	25	1	25	45	164	4	29	6	251	312	435	746	184	307	27	7	328	108	+6	+3	-3	-7	+13	1.4
2029	27	MLB MLE	STL	100%	606	552	139	25	1	25	45	163	4	28	6	250	311	432	742	182	307	27	7	327	107	+5	+3	-3	-6	+13	1.3
2030	28	MLB MLE	STL	100%	592	539	134	24	1	24	44	161	4	24	5	248	308	427	735	179	305	27	7	324	105	+4	+3	-3	-6	+13	1.0
2031	29	MLB MLE	STL	100%	571	521	128	23	0	23	42	157	3	20	4	245	305	420	725	175	303	27	7	320	102	+2	+2	-4	-6	+12	0.7
2032	30	MLB MLE	STL	100%	555	507	122	22	0	21	40	154	3	16	4	241	301	410	711	169	300	28	7	314	99	-1	+2	-5	-6	+12	0.2
2033	31	MLB MLE	STL	100%	536	490	116	20	0	20	38	151	3	11	3	236	295	400	695	164	296	28	7	308	94	-4	+1	-5	-6	+12	-0.2
2034	32	MLB MLE	STL	100%	512	469	107	18	0	18	36	146	2	6	2	230	288	386	674	156	290	29	7	299	88	-7	+0	-6	-5	+11	-0.7
2028	26	MLB CTX	STL	100%	614	560	140	26	1	24	45	164	4	29	6	250	311	426	737	176	309	27	7	325	108	+6	+3	-3	-7	+13	1.4
2029	27	MLB CTX	STL	100%	606	552	138	26	1	23	45	163	4	28	6	249	309	423	733	174	308	27	7	323	107	+5	+3	-3	-6	+13	1.3
2030	28	MLB CTX	STL	100%	592	539	133	25	1	22	44	161	4	24	5	247	307	418	725	172	307	27	7	320	105	+4	+3	-3	-6	+13	1.0
2031	29	MLB CTX	STL	100%	571	521	127	24	0	21	42	157	3	20	4	244	304	411	715	167	305	27	7	316	102	+2	+2	-4	-6	+12	0.7
2032	30	MLB CTX	STL	100%	555	507	122	23	0	20	40	154	3	16	4	240	300	402	702	162	302	28	7	311	99	-1	+2	-5	-6	+12	0.2
2033	31	MLB CTX	STL	100%	536	490	116	21	0	19	38	151	3	11	3	235	294	392	687	157	297	28	7	304	94	-4	+1	-5	-6	+12	-0.2
2034	32	MLB CTX	STL	100%	512	469	107	19	0	17	36	146	2	6	2	229	287	379	666	150	292	29	7	296	88	-7	+0	-6	-5	+11	-0.7
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	5692	5194	1274	239	7	202	416	1550	38	174	42	245	306	411	717	165	309	27	7	317	103	+14	+18	-53	-67	+123	3.6
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	593	145	27	1	23	48	177	4	20	5	245	305	410	715	165	308	27	7	317	103	+2	+2	-6	-8	+14	0.4
Career	—	MLE		—	7870	7175	1784	341	18	281	566	2146	64	251	60	249	309	419	728	170	313	27	7	320	103	+20	+21	-56	-74	+137	5.0
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	593	146	28	1	23	47	177	5	21	5	246	307	413	720	167	310	27	7	320	103	+2	+2	-6	-8	+14	0.5

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2025 AASpringfield Cardinals · 43 PAwOBA .281 → .220 (−60)K% 27.9% → 34.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	27.91%	÷0.992	×1.220	—	—	34.32%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	11.63%	÷0.987	×0.700	—	×1.027	8.47%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.870	—	×1.027	0.00%
Singles /BIP	3.85%	÷0.966	×0.920	—	×1.027	3.76%
Doubles /BIP	11.54%	÷0.916	×0.840	—	×1.027	10.87%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.900	×0.940	—	×1.027	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	7.69%	÷1.105	×0.800	—	×1.027	5.72%

Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 121, 1B 93, 2B 83, 3B 80, K 98, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .281 → .220; ISO .237 → .181; BABIP .167 → .155. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAAMemphis Redbirds · 17 PAwOBA .248 → .210 (−38)K% 35.3% → 44.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	35.29%	÷0.953	×1.200	—	—	44.45%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	5.88%	÷0.954	×0.690	—	×1.050	4.47%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.940	—	×1.050	0.00%
Singles /BIP	40.00%	÷0.982	×0.930	—	×1.050	39.78%
Doubles /BIP	0.00%	÷1.033	×0.830	—	×1.050	0.00%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.900	×0.970	—	×1.050	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷0.869	×0.700	—	×1.050	0.00%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 74, 1B 96, 2B 107, 3B 80, K 91, BB 91 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.2 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .248 → .210; ISO .000 → .000; BABIP .400 → .398. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAAMemphis Redbirds · 377 PAwOBA .327 → .284 (−43)K% 19.4% → 24.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	19.36%	÷0.953	×1.200	—	—	24.38%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	8.22%	÷1.014	×0.690	—	×1.050	5.87%
HBP% /PA	0.53%	—	×0.940	—	×1.050	0.52%
Singles /BIP	20.45%	÷0.991	×0.930	×1.005	×1.050	20.25%
Doubles /BIP	8.55%	÷0.920	×0.830	×1.005	×1.050	8.14%
Triples /BIP	1.12%	÷1.150	×0.970	×1.005	×1.050	0.99%
Home runs /BIP	3.35%	÷1.020	×0.700	—	×1.050	2.41%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 104, 1B 98, 2B 84, 3B 130, K 91, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (5.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.005.

Result: wOBA .327 → .284; ISO .164 → .132; BABIP .309 → .299. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAAMemphis Redbirds · 135 PAwOBA .334 → .284 (−50)K% 23.7% → 28.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	23.70%	÷0.990	×1.200	—	—	28.74%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	11.85%	÷1.010	×0.690	—	×1.050	8.50%
HBP% /PA	2.96%	—	×0.940	—	×1.050	2.92%
Singles /BIP	20.99%	÷1.040	×0.930	×1.007	×1.050	19.84%
Doubles /BIP	7.41%	÷0.969	×0.830	×1.007	×1.050	6.71%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.150	×0.970	×1.007	×1.050	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	4.94%	÷0.955	×0.700	—	×1.050	3.80%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 91, 1B 108, 2B 94, 3B 130, K 98, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (6.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.007.

Result: wOBA .334 → .284; ISO .159 → .129; BABIP .291 → .269. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AASpringfield Cardinals · 536 PAwOBA .388 → .348 (−40)K% 21.6% → 25.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	21.64%	÷1.024	×1.220	—	—	25.79%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	10.63%	÷1.044	×0.700	—	×1.050	7.49%
HBP% /PA	1.68%	—	×0.870	—	×1.050	1.53%
Singles /BIP	25.51%	÷1.012	×0.920	×1.023	×1.050	24.89%
Doubles /BIP	8.99%	÷0.935	×0.840	×1.023	×1.050	8.67%
Triples /BIP	0.87%	÷0.900	×0.940	×1.023	×1.050	0.98%
Home runs /BIP	5.51%	÷1.069	×0.800	—	×1.050	4.33%

Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 114, 1B 102, 2B 87, 3B 80, K 105, BB 109 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 24.8 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.023.

Result: wOBA .388 → .348; ISO .204 → .179; BABIP .365 → .352. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 A+Peoria Chiefs · 244 PAwOBA .354 → .286 (−68)K% 27.0% → 36.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	27.05%	÷1.000	×1.350	—	—	36.53%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	5.74%	÷0.984	×0.710	—	×1.050	4.35%
HBP% /PA	1.23%	—	×0.810	—	×1.050	1.05%
Singles /BIP	25.62%	÷0.988	×0.910	×1.008	×1.050	24.98%
Doubles /BIP	8.75%	÷0.945	×0.830	×1.008	×1.050	8.14%
Triples /BIP	1.88%	÷1.150	×0.820	×1.008	×1.050	1.42%
Home runs /BIP	5.00%	÷1.063	×0.830	—	×1.050	4.10%

Factors used: level-wide A+ factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 113, 1B 98, 2B 89, 3B 130, K 100, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 22.8 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.008.

Result: wOBA .354 → .286; ISO .195 → .146; BABIP .382 → .360. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 APalm Beach Cardinals · 122 PAwOBA .488 → .434 (−54)K% 17.2% → 22.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	17.21%	÷1.034	×1.360	—	—	22.63%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	14.75%	÷1.071	×0.690	—	×1.045	9.93%
HBP% /PA	2.46%	—	×0.780	—	×1.045	2.00%
Singles /BIP	24.36%	÷1.037	×0.920	×1.049	×1.045	23.68%
Doubles /BIP	14.10%	÷1.014	×0.830	×1.049	×1.045	12.65%
Triples /BIP	1.28%	÷1.000	×0.910	×1.049	×1.045	1.28%
Home runs /BIP	7.69%	÷0.924	×0.800	—	×1.045	6.96%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 85, 1B 107, 2B 103, 3B 100, K 107, BB 114 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 22.0 → +4.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.049.

Result: wOBA .488 → .434; ISO .313 → .291; BABIP .419 → .394. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Jay Brucelast yr '20 career totals — 13 seasons, 6,603 PA	9.9	6,603	318	65	245	314	469	-71	-54	19.6	19.5
/162	664	32	7	-7.1	-5.4	2.0	pk7: 19
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 12 projected seasons	9.5	6,306	238	204	248	305	419	-68	-93	14.5	14.4
/162	664	25	21	-7.1	-9.8	1.5	pk7: 14
#2Derek Bell'91-'01 * career totals — 10 seasons, 5,068 PA	7.6	5,068	134	170	264*	322*	414*	-34	-29	11.8	13.5
/162	664	18	22	-4.4	-3.8	1.5	pk7: 15
#3Wil Myerslast yr '23 career totals — 11 seasons, 4,290 PA	6.5	4,290	156	107	252	326	437	-47	-45	10.7	10.8
/162	664	24	17	-7.3	-6.9	1.7	pk7: 11
#4Juan Encarnacion'97-'07 * career totals — 10 seasons, 5,095 PA	7.7	5,095	156	127	258*	304*	426*	-35	-21	9.1	9.1
/162	664	20	17	-4.6	-2.7	1.2	pk7: 9
#5Al Cowens'74-'86 * career totals — 13 seasons, 6,038 PA	9.1	6,038	108	120	266*	320*	431*	-57	-44	6.9	8.8
/162	664	12	13	-6.3	-4.8	0.8	pk7: 11
#6Gregory Polancolast yr '21 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,220 PA	4.8	3,220	96	98	241	309	409	-34	-28	3.8	4.4
/162	664	20	20	-7.1	-5.8	0.8	pk7: 5

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Jordan Walker (OGILVIE)	25	35	55	60	45	249/309/431	182	308	25	29	27%	7%	109	+2.0	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Justin Maxwell 2009 · MLB	25	41→45	54→60	55→60	45	220/288/396	176	278	22	23	29%	8%	92	+0.7	219/298/369	150	319	17	29	34%	9%	89	+0.5	222/296/434	212	299	27	17	34%	9%	103	+0.7
✕Jonny DeLuca 2024 · MLB	26	43→37	56→60	56→55	47	232/299/428	196	258	24	15	21%	7%	103	+1.6	234/290/376	142	279	14	22	21%	6%	87	+0.4	237/287/370	132	284	13	27	21%	6%	85	+0.1
●Chris Young 2009 · MLB	25	46→48	56→60	53→55	48	240/303/442	201	277	23	17	23%	8%	107	+1.9	237/318/424	187	285	21	18	23%	10%	109	+2.0	231/322/413	182	275	20	20	23%	11%	109	+2.1
✕Joey Wiemer 2023 · AAA	24	44	52→55	56→55	42	224/289/391	167	304	20	23	32%	7%	91	+0.7	205/279/337	132	284	14	17	31%	8%	75	-0.5	188/270/304	117	259	13	16	31%	9%	63	-0.9
●Oneil Cruz 2024 · MLB	25	45→55	55→60	55→60	45	236/302/427	191	305	23	20	30%	8%	103	+1.6	241/313/430	189	323	24	28	31%	9%	109	+2.0	242/319/436	194	325	25	34	32%	10%	113	+2.0
●Jazz Chisholm Jr. 2023 · MLB	25	49→50	59→60	56→60	45	255/318/475	220	315	27	24	28%	8%	121	+2.9	253/317/457	204	313	27	31	27%	8%	116	+2.5	247/318/446	199	301	28	36	27%	9%	115	+2.1
✕Davis Schneider 2024 · MLB	25	44→45	56→55	51→50	53	228/330/428	200	300	23	11	30%	12%	115	+2.4	209/318/382	173	278	20	9	30%	13%	100	+1.3	187/312/348	161	246	20	8	30%	14%	91	+0.4
✕Aaron Palensky 2024 · AAA	25	37→32	54→50	54→55	44	201/287/382	182	269	21	18	33%	8%	88	+0.5	204/286/326	122	277	12	19	29%	9%	75	-0.5	169/264/227	58	238	2	28	27%	10%	44	-1.0
●Zack Gelof 2024 · MLB	24	50→53	55	55	45	249/315/436	187	334	22	22	31%	8%	111	+2.1	229/296/404	175	307	22	23	31%	8%	97	+1.1	222/292/398	176	286	24	24	30%	8%	94	+0.7
✕Casper Wells 2009 · AA	24	43→44	55→60	53→50	44	226/299/413	188	272	22	16	26%	7%	100	+1.3	225/292/415	190	290	22	10	30%	7%	98	+1.2	226/296/429	204	279	23	7	27%	7%	101	+0.9
●Royce Lewis 2023 · MLB	24	52→51	51→60	56→50	47	259/321/431	172	315	18	23	23%	7%	112	+2.2	258/315/457	199	302	27	14	24%	7%	116	+2.5	245/300/432	188	279	27	12	23%	7%	105	+1.0
✕Christopher Morel 2024 · MLB	25	45→46	61→60	49→50	44	239/306/463	224	311	29	12	32%	8%	114	+2.4	218/292/398	180	279	24	10	30%	9%	94	+0.9	203/280/362	159	257	22	8	30%	8%	82	-0.0
●Harrison Bader 2020 · MLB	26	45→55	52→55	52→55	45	232/311/400	168	301	21	17	29%	8%	101	+1.4	243/313/419	176	298	21	17	25%	7%	106	+1.8	246/306/404	158	305	19	16	25%	6%	101	+0.8
●Jo Adell 2024 · MLB	25	42→47	58→65	50	39	224/285/429	205	300	26	11	34%	6%	99	+1.2	226/289/430	204	271	28	11	28%	7%	101	+1.4	228/290/425	197	264	28	9	26%	6%	101	+1.3
●Wilyer Abreu 2024 · MLB	25	44→48	51→60	52→50	53	225/318/385	160	296	20	17	30%	12%	100	+1.3	238/313/429	191	290	23	11	25%	10%	108	+1.9	237/310/437	200	277	24	9	24%	9%	110	+1.8
✕Daulton Varsho 2021 · MLB	25	47→50	51→60	55→50	47	238/304/401	163	278	18	18	22%	7%	99	+1.2	233/297/426	193	268	24	14	23%	8%	102	+1.5	227/293/421	194	258	25	15	23%	8%	100	+1.1
✕Anthony Volpe 2024 · MLB	23	42→50	52→55	58→55	48	218/296/393	175	269	19	27	26%	9%	94	+0.9	225/286/370	145	282	14	22	25%	7%	84	+0.2	226/286/365	138	282	13	24	24%	7%	83	+0.1
✕Alexander Canario 2024 · MLB	24	41→36	55→60	52→50	40	215/276/403	188	297	24	13	35%	7%	89	+0.5	220/284/380	160	317	20	10	35%	8%	86	+0.3	208/276/362	155	297	21	9	36%	8%	78	-0.1
●Wil Myers 2017 · MLB	26	50→54	54→60	54→55	52	255/329/439	183	305	22	20	23%	10%	116	+2.5	250/324/451	201	320	24	19	28%	10%	118	+2.6	244/321/445	201	321	24	20	30%	10%	115	+2.1
●Lane Thomas 2021 · MLB	25	43→52	51→55	48→55	43	222/286/387	165	294	19	14	31%	7%	89	+0.5	240/308/409	169	306	18	12	26%	8%	101	+1.4	248/309/424	176	306	20	21	25%	7%	106	+1.8

Jordan Walker

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps