Alexander Canario

Alexander CanarioLF Pittsburgh Pirates

Age 26 R/R 6'0" / 215 lbs MLB Svc 3.000 · Ctrl thru 2028

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 284 proj PA

wRC+†vL 5965vR 80

AVG/OBP/SLG.218 / .282 / .379

PA284

HR10

SB5

K%31

BB%8

ISO163

MLB%100%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · Splits · ContractCON 40 / POW 60

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2023-2025

CONTACT40

Whiff%

1019.6%

xwOBA

360.293

POWER60

Barrel%

7411.8

Avg EV

3087.6

Bat Spd

9076.0

EYE45

Chase%

3534.6%

SPEED55

Sprint

6628.1

Platoon Splits2024-2025 · 254 PA

vs LHP

vs RHP

Edge

108

146

—

wRC+

▶▶R

wOBA

263

290

▶R

ISO

152

105

◀◀L

BABIP

254

363

▶▶R

34.3%

34.9%

—

BB%

7.4%

7.5%

—

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Arb-1

MLB Debut 2023

Service 3.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2028

First FA Year 2029

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Arb-1	$0.2M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.2M
2027	Arb-2	$1M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.2M
2028	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$2M		$2M	+$0.4M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2017	17	ROK	DSL Giants	—	274	249	53	12	3	4	19	58	5	18	11	213	282	333	615	120	261	21	7	268	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	17	ROK	DSL Giants	—	274	235	69	17	4	5	33	40	5	18	11	294	392	464	856	170	335	15	12	381	149	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	18	ROK	AZL Giants Black	—	208	186	31	3	1	4	17	73	3	8	5	167	248	258	506	91	245	35	8	233	37	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	18	ROK	AZL Giants Black	—	208	176	44	5	2	6	27	51	3	8	5	250	359	403	763	153	317	25	13	342	120	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	19	ROK	AZL Giants Orange	—	46	44	12	2	1	5	1	13	1	1	0	273	304	705	1.009	432	269	28	2	409	171	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	19	ROK	AZL Giants Orange	—	46	43	17	3	1	7	2	9	1	1	0	395	435	1.000	1.435	605	370	20	4	600	317	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	21	A	2 teams	—	456	427	74	14	3	14	24	178	0	21	8	173	217	319	536	145	250	39	5	232	36	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	21	A	2 teams	—	456	408	94	20	4	18	43	125	0	21	8	230	304	431	735	201	281	27	9	322	104	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	22	AA	4 teams	—	567	511	106	24	2	32	45	214	7	23	3	207	281	450	731	243	276	38	8	309	95	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	22	AA	4 teams	—	567	493	122	28	3	38	63	159	7	23	3	247	341	548	889	300	281	28	11	383	151	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	23	AAA	5 teams	—	318	291	63	15	2	11	21	111	4	4	0	216	278	395	674	179	304	35	7	290	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	23	AAA	5 teams	—	318	279	75	20	2	10	33	89	4	4	0	269	354	462	817	194	357	28	10	360	134	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	24	AAA	3 teams	—	406	363	72	15	0	17	35	150	6	7	2	198	280	380	660	182	278	37	9	288	79	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	24	AAA	3 teams	—	406	351	91	21	0	23	47	116	6	7	2	259	356	516	872	256	318	29	12	381	149	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	25	MLB	2 teams	—	316	289	63	8	1	8	23	108	1	10	1	218	278	336	614	118	312	34	7	275	68	-11	+2	-1	-3	+9	-0.6
2025	25	MLB	2 teams	—	316	286	60	8	1	10	26	106	1	10	1	210	278	350	628	140	289	34	8	281	73	-10	+2	-1	-3	+9	-0.4
▸ 2026 Season
2026	26	MLB	PIT	—	284	258	56	9	1	10	22	88	2	5	1	217	284	376	660	159	286	31	8	296	85	-5	+1	+2	-3	+8	0.2
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	27	MLB	PIT	65%	339	308	67	11	1	12	26	105	2	6	1	218	283	377	659	159	285	31	8	296	85	-6	+1	+2	-4	+10	0.3
2027	27	MLB	PIT	65%	220	200	44	7	1	8	17	68	1	4	1	220	284	385	669	165	284	31	8	290	80	-5	+0	+1	-2	+6	0.1
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	499	458	103	15	3	16	36	167	2	8	2	225	284	376	660	151	314	33	7	291	81	-11	+1	+0	-14	+14	-0.9
/ 162G	—			—	650	597	135	20	4	21	47	218	3	10	3	226	286	379	665	152	316	34	7	291	81	-14	+1	+0	-18	+18	-1.2
Career	—			—	3214	2926	597	113	15	117	233	1098	31	103	32	204	270	373	643	169	277	34	7	281	73	-98	+8	+3	-34	+91	-3.1
/ 162G	—			—	650	592	121	23	3	24	47	222	6	21	6	204	270	375	645	171	277	34	7	281	73	-20	+2	+1	-7	+18	-0.6

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2017	17	ROK	DSL Giants	—	274	235	69	17	4	5	33	40	5	18	11	294	392	464	856	170	335	15	12	381	149	+15	-1	—	—	+8	2.3
2018	18	ROK	AZL Giants Black	—	208	176	44	5	2	6	27	51	3	8	5	250	359	403	763	153	317	25	13	342	120	+5	-0	—	—	+6	1.0
2019	19	ROK	AZL Giants Orange	—	46	43	17	3	1	7	2	9	1	1	0	395	435	1.000	1.435	605	370	20	4	600	317	+11	+0	—	—	+1	1.3
2021	21	A+	South Bend Cubs	—	182	170	38	6	1	9	10	46	0	6	5	224	267	429	696	206	248	25	5	302	89	-2	-1	—	—	+5	0.2
2021	21	A	San Jose Giants	—	274	238	56	14	3	9	33	79	0	15	3	235	328	433	761	197	307	29	12	335	114	+4	+2	—	—	+8	1.4
2022	22	AAA	Iowa Cubs	—	84	65	15	2	0	6	13	21	4	3	0	231	390	538	929	308	231	25	15	398	162	+6	+1	—	—	+2	0.9
2022	22	AA	Tennessee Smokies	—	350	310	77	18	2	24	36	91	2	17	3	248	330	552	882	303	269	26	10	379	148	+19	+2	—	—	+10	3.2
2022	22	A+	South Bend Cubs	—	100	89	25	6	0	7	10	35	1	3	0	281	360	584	944	303	383	35	10	408	171	+8	+1	—	—	+3	1.2
2022	22	INTL	Aguilas Cibaenas	—	33	29	5	2	1	1	4	12	0	0	0	172	273	414	687	241	250	36	12	302	89	-0	+0	—	—	+1	0.1
2023	23	MLB	Chicago Cubs	—	17	17	5	1	1	1	0	8	0	0	0	294	294	647	941	353	500	47	0	399	164	+1	+0	-0	-3	+0	-0.2
2023	23	AAA	Iowa Cubs	—	161	145	40	12	0	8	15	45	0	2	0	276	344	524	868	248	344	28	9	377	146	+8	+0	—	—	+5	1.4
2023	23	A+	South Bend Cubs	—	46	39	10	1	0	0	6	14	1	0	0	256	370	282	652	26	400	30	13	312	97	-0	+0	—	—	+1	0.1
2023	23	ROK	ACL Cubs	—	26	21	6	2	1	1	4	5	1	0	0	286	423	619	1.042	333	333	19	15	446	200	+3	+0	—	—	+1	0.4
2023	23	INTL	Aguilas Cibaenas	—	68	57	14	4	0	0	8	17	2	2	0	246	358	316	674	70	341	25	12	312	97	-0	+0	—	—	+2	0.2
2024	24	MLB	Chicago Cubs	—	28	25	7	1	0	1	2	11	1	1	0	280	357	440	797	160	462	39	7	358	132	+1	+0	+0	-4	+1	-0.2
2024	24	AAA	Iowa Cubs	—	283	247	60	13	0	18	32	86	3	5	2	243	337	514	851	271	292	30	11	371	142	+13	+0	—	—	+8	2.2
2024	24	INTL	Aguilas Cibaenas	—	95	79	24	7	0	4	13	19	2	1	0	304	415	544	959	241	351	20	14	417	177	+8	+0	—	—	+3	1.1
2025	25	MLB	Pittsburgh Pirates	—	234	216	47	6	1	6	17	80	0	3	1	218	275	338	613	120	313	34	7	275	69	-8	+0	-1	-3	+7	-0.6
2025	25	INTL	Leones del Escogido	—	82	70	13	2	0	4	9	26	1	7	0	186	287	386	673	200	214	32	11	296	84	-1	+1	—	—	+2	0.2
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	279	258	59	8	2	8	19	99	1	4	1	229	284	368	652	140	336	35	7	291	81	-6	+0	-1	-11	+8	-1.0

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Michael Saunderslast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 2,711 PA	8	2,711	81	55	233	305	399	-12	-13	4.1	4.5
	/162	664	20	13	233	305	399	-2.9	-3.2	1.0	pk7: 5
#2Chris Heiseylast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 1,758 PA	8	1,758	62	25	238	296	413	-18	+3	3.0	3.2
	/162	664	23	9	238	296	413	-6.7	+1.0	1.1	pk7: 4
#3John Mayberry Jr.last yr '15 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,506 PA	6	1,506	54	15	234	298	417	-6	-18	1.7	1.7
	/162	664	24	7	234	298	417	-2.8	-8.1	0.8	pk7: 2
#4Jake Cavelast yr '24 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,564 PA	7	1,564	45	13	236	292	400	-11	-6	1.3	1.3
#4Jake Cavelast yr '24 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,564 PA	/162	664	19	6	236	292	400	-4.5	-2.5	0.6	pk7: 1
#5Nick Senzellast yr '24 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,633 PA	6	1,633	40	33	232	299	363	+6	-14	0.9	0.9
	/162	664	16	13	232	299	363	+2.4	-5.8	0.4	pk7: 1
#6Chad Pinderlast yr '22 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,740 PA	7	1,740	62	5	242	294	417	-17	-20	0.6	0.6
	/162	664	24	2	242	294	417	-6.5	-7.6	0.2	pk7: 1
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 3 projected seasons	3	738	24	11	220	280	370	-8	-1	-0.2	-0.2
	/162	664	22	10	220	280	370	-7.1	-0.7	-0.2	pk7: -0

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Alexander Canario (OGILVIE)	26	40	60	55	45	218/282/379	162	286	10	5	31%	8%	85	+0.3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Stuart Fairchild 2022 · MLB	26	44→42	51→50	51→55	46	225/296/386	161	279	18	12	26%	8%	91	+1.1	222/301/376	154	297	17	17	30%	7%	92	+1.2	220/316/365	145	284	15	26	26%	9%	92	+0.7
●Trayce Thompson 2017 · MLB	26	44→47	51→65	51→50	44	226/282/393	166	281	19	12	27%	7%	87	+0.8	182/232/318	136	255	16	9	34%	6%	46	-2.0	211/299/435	223	292	31	7	37%	10%	103	+1.1
✕Sean Bouchard 2023 · MLB	27	43→41	54→55	52→50	50	221/307/408	188	288	21	13	30%	10%	102	+1.8	208/299/363	155	294	17	15	32%	10%	87	+0.8	177/275/304	127	268	13	16	36%	10%	59	-0.5
✕Kevin Padlo 2022 · MLB	26	38→40	55	48→50	41	209/273/391	182	282	24	10	35%	8%	83	+0.6	194/263/337	143	269	16	13	33%	8%	65	-0.7	175/255/305	131	241	15	14	32%	9%	52	-1.0
✕Eric Wood 2019 · AAA	26	42→48	52→55	51→45	43	222/280/390	169	278	20	8	28%	7%	85	+0.7	225/279/378	153	299	18	8	30%	6%	82	+0.5	206/262/356	150	273	19	2	31%	6%	66	-0.3
✕Jabari Blash 2015 · AAA	26	37→41	53→60	46→50	42	197/281/370	173	278	22	10	36%	8%	82	+0.5	208/303/397	189	294	24	7	35%	10%	98	+1.6	199/309/387	188	287	24	5	36%	12%	95	+1.0
✕Drew Robinson 2018 · MLB	26	40	53→55	49→50	46	212/285/390	178	284	21	12	32%	9%	88	+0.9	221/294/375	154	351	16	13	38%	9%	87	+0.8	196/277/339	144	353	15	13	45%	10%	69	-0.2
✕Ben Johnson 2007 · MLB	26	46	51→50	51→45	47	234/304/400	166	295	19	11	27%	8%	98	+1.6	229/296/345	116	298	11	10	25%	8%	80	+0.4	225/295/287	62	296	4	6	23%	8%	62	-0.4
●Mike Wilson 2010 · AAA	27	38→48	54→60	54→50	41	203/282/375	173	283	22	9	36%	8%	84	+0.6	230/303/403	173	301	22	10	30%	8%	99	+1.7	233/307/410	177	297	22	9	28%	9%	98	+1.0
✕Clint Frazier 2021 · MLB	26	46→45	54→55	46→50	47	239/311/420	181	298	21	7	27%	8%	106	+2.2	205/296/337	132	295	14	9	33%	10%	79	+0.3	180/276/289	109	272	11	10	35%	10%	57	-0.6
✕Alex Castellanos 2013 · MLB	26	45→49	51→55	52→50	41	229/293/398	169	302	18	15	30%	6%	93	+1.3	203/267/344	141	286	16	15	33%	6%	69	-0.4	198/258/327	129	294	12	8	35%	6%	57	-0.6
✕John Mayberry Jr. 2010 · MLB	26	39→48	52→55	50	40	210/261/380	170	263	20	9	29%	5%	75	-0.0	238/287/398	160	288	19	12	24%	6%	91	+1.1	243/295/401	158	287	19	12	22%	6%	91	+0.9
●Mike Hessman 2005 · MLB	27	41→36	53→65	48→45	42	218/278/388	170	277	21	7	29%	7%	85	+0.7	184/254/370	186	239	27	6	35%	7%	71	-0.3	197/276/419	222	259	31	4	36%	8%	91	+1.0
✕Travis Blankenhorn 2023 · MLB	26	45	50→55	50	40	227/285/381	154	313	18	12	32%	6%	85	+0.7	202/272/369	167	265	21	5	32%	7%	78	+0.2	179/255/348	169	228	22	1	32%	8%	61	-0.6
✕Travis Demeritte 2021 · MLB	26	43→44	53→60	48→50	41	219/286/397	178	313	21	7	36%	8%	90	+1.0	213/272/380	167	323	21	11	38%	7%	79	+0.3	194/252/361	167	290	22	12	40%	7%	63	-0.4
✕Ryan Cordell 2018 · AAA	26	41→42	50	51→50	40	214/262/365	151	274	18	14	29%	6%	71	-0.3	204/254/325	121	278	13	12	30%	6%	57	-1.2	179/233/303	124	254	15	13	35%	6%	41	-1.0
✕Michael Hermosillo 2021 · MLB	26	39→46	49→55	49→55	38	199/276/345	145	291	17	13	36%	6%	72	-0.2	222/309/399	177	296	21	15	31%	7%	101	+1.8	207/290/404	197	249	27	18	29%	6%	92	+0.4
✕J.J. Matijevic 2022 · AAA	26	41→42	55→60	51→50	40	214/276/403	189	310	24	9	38%	8%	88	+0.9	227/288/415	188	312	22	11	33%	7%	95	+1.4	223/286/412	189	301	22	12	32%	7%	91	+0.8
✕Peyton Burdick 2023 · MLB	26	35→32	51→55	50	44	187/277/350	163	274	19	12	37%	9%	75	-0.0	186/266/343	157	299	19	12	42%	8%	69	-0.4	165/248/320	156	268	21	12	44%	8%	53	-1.0
✕Jake Rogers 2021 · MLB	26	38→40	52→60	49→45	43	202/278/367	165	273	21	5	33%	8%	79	+0.3	237/301/444	207	322	27	7	33%	8%	108	+2.3	221/284/435	214	280	29	2	32%	7%	97	+0.7