Alexander Canario
LF Pittsburgh Pirates| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 23 | AAA/A+/ROK/INTL2 orgs | 301 | .267/.358/.450 | 9 | 4 | 83 | — | .225/.289/.389 | |
| 2023 | 23 | MLBCHC | 17 | .294/.294/.647 | 1 | 0 | 149 | -0.2 | ||
| 2024 | 24 | AAA/INTL2 orgs | 378 | .258/.356/.521 | 22 | 6 | 99 | — | .196/.273/.380 | |
| 2024 | 24 | MLBCHC | 28 | .280/.357/.440 | 1 | 1 | 129 | -0.2 | ||
| 2025 | 25 | INTLLeones del Es… | 82 | .186/.288/.386 | 4 | 7 | 86 | — | ||
| 2025 | 25 | MLBPIT | 234 | .218/.275/.338 | 6 | 3 | 75 | -0.7 | ||
| 2026 | 26 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
| 2027PROJ | 27 | MLBPIT | 177 | .221/.289/.384 | 6 | 3 | 92 | 0.1 | ||
| 2028PROJ82% MLB | 28 | MLBPIT | 184 | .219/.287/.379 | 6 | 3 | 90 | 0.0 | ||
Tools · Splits · ContractCON 40 / POW 60
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2017 | 17 | ROK | DSL Giants | — | 274 | 235 | 69 | 17 | 4 | 5 | 33 | 40 | 5 | 18 | 11 | 294 | 392 | 464 | 856 | 170 | 335 | 15 | 12 | 381 | 50 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 18 | ROK | AZL Giants Black | — | 208 | 176 | 44 | 5 | 2 | 6 | 27 | 51 | 3 | 8 | 5 | 250 | 359 | 403 | 763 | 153 | 317 | 25 | 13 | 342 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 19 | ROK | AZL Giants Orange | — | 46 | 43 | 17 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 2 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 395 | 435 | 1.000 | 1.435 | 605 | 370 | 20 | 4 | 600 | 165 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 21 | A+ | South Bend Cubs | — | 182 | 170 | 38 | 6 | 1 | 9 | 10 | 46 | 0 | 6 | 5 | 224 | 267 | 429 | 696 | 206 | 248 | 25 | 5 | 302 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 21 | A | San Jose Giants | — | 274 | 238 | 56 | 14 | 3 | 9 | 33 | 79 | 0 | 15 | 3 | 235 | 328 | 433 | 761 | 197 | 307 | 29 | 12 | 335 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | AAA | Iowa Cubs | — | 84 | 65 | 15 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 13 | 21 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 231 | 390 | 538 | 929 | 308 | 231 | 25 | 15 | 398 | 107 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | AA | Tennessee Smokies | — | 350 | 310 | 77 | 18 | 2 | 24 | 36 | 91 | 2 | 17 | 3 | 248 | 330 | 552 | 882 | 303 | 269 | 26 | 10 | 379 | 98 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | A+ | South Bend Cubs | — | 100 | 89 | 25 | 6 | 0 | 7 | 10 | 35 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 281 | 360 | 584 | 944 | 303 | 383 | 35 | 10 | 408 | 90 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | INTL | Aguilas Cibaenas | — | 33 | 29 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 172 | 273 | 414 | 687 | 241 | 250 | 36 | 12 | 302 | 90 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | MLB | Chicago Cubs | — | 17 | 17 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 294 | 294 | 647 | 941 | 353 | 500 | 47 | 0 | 399 | 149 | +1 | +0 | -0 | -3 | +0 | -0.2 |
| 2023 | 23 | AAA | Iowa Cubs | — | 161 | 145 | 40 | 12 | 0 | 8 | 15 | 45 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 276 | 344 | 524 | 868 | 248 | 344 | 28 | 9 | 377 | 86 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | A+ | South Bend Cubs | — | 46 | 39 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 14 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 256 | 370 | 282 | 652 | 26 | 400 | 30 | 13 | 312 | 46 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | ROK | ACL Cubs | — | 26 | 21 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 286 | 423 | 619 | 1.042 | 333 | 333 | 19 | 15 | 446 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | INTL | Aguilas Cibaenas | — | 68 | 57 | 14 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 17 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 246 | 358 | 316 | 674 | 70 | 341 | 25 | 12 | 312 | 98 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | MLB | Chicago Cubs | — | 28 | 25 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 280 | 357 | 440 | 797 | 160 | 462 | 39 | 7 | 358 | 129 | +1 | +0 | +0 | -4 | +1 | -0.2 |
| 2024 | 24 | AAA | Iowa Cubs | — | 283 | 247 | 60 | 13 | 0 | 18 | 32 | 86 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 243 | 337 | 514 | 851 | 271 | 292 | 30 | 11 | 371 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | INTL | Aguilas Cibaenas | — | 95 | 79 | 24 | 7 | 0 | 4 | 13 | 19 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 304 | 415 | 544 | 959 | 241 | 351 | 20 | 14 | 417 | 168 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | MLB | Pittsburgh Pirates | — | 234 | 216 | 47 | 6 | 1 | 6 | 17 | 80 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 218 | 275 | 338 | 613 | 120 | 313 | 34 | 7 | 275 | 75 | -7 | +0 | -1 | -3 | +5 | -0.7 |
| 2025 | 25 | INTL | Leones del Escogido | — | 82 | 70 | 13 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 9 | 26 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 186 | 287 | 386 | 673 | 200 | 214 | 32 | 11 | 296 | 86 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MLB Career | — | — | 279 | 258 | 59 | 8 | 2 | 8 | 19 | 99 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 229 | 284 | 368 | 652 | 140 | 336 | 35 | 7 | 291 | 83 | -6 | +0 | -1 | -11 | +6 | -1.2 | ||
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2017 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Giants | — | 274 | 246 | 44 | 10 | 2 | 2 | 22 | 49 | 5 | 18 | 11 | 179 | 260 | 260 | 520 | 81 | 215 | 18 | 8 | 242 | 50 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 18 | ROK MLE | AZL Giants Black | — | 208 | 186 | 32 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 17 | 73 | 3 | 8 | 5 | 172 | 252 | 263 | 516 | 91 | 252 | 35 | 8 | 238 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 19 | ROK MLE | AZL Giants Orange | — | 46 | 44 | 13 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 13 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 295 | 326 | 727 | 1.053 | 432 | 276 | 28 | 2 | 412 | 165 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 21 | A+ MLE | South Bend Cubs | — | 182 | 173 | 31 | 4 | 1 | 8 | 7 | 61 | 0 | 6 | 5 | 179 | 211 | 353 | 564 | 173 | 217 | 34 | 4 | 238 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 21 | A MLE | San Jose Giants | — | 274 | 252 | 44 | 10 | 2 | 7 | 19 | 112 | 0 | 15 | 3 | 175 | 232 | 313 | 546 | 139 | 272 | 41 | 7 | 240 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | AAA MLE | Iowa Cubs | — | 84 | 69 | 14 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 9 | 26 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 203 | 329 | 449 | 779 | 246 | 223 | 31 | 11 | 327 | 107 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | AA MLE | Tennessee Smokies | — | 350 | 320 | 70 | 18 | 2 | 19 | 26 | 116 | 2 | 17 | 3 | 219 | 282 | 466 | 747 | 247 | 264 | 33 | 7 | 313 | 98 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | A+ MLE | South Bend Cubs | — | 100 | 92 | 19 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 7 | 44 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 207 | 270 | 413 | 683 | 207 | 331 | 44 | 7 | 301 | 90 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | MLB MLE | Chicago Cubs | — | 17 | 17 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 294 | 294 | 647 | 941 | 353 | 500 | 47 | 0 | 388 | 149 | +1 | +0 | -0 | -3 | +0 | -0.2 |
| 2023 | 23 | AAA MLE | Iowa Cubs | — | 161 | 149 | 34 | 10 | 0 | 6 | 11 | 53 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 228 | 281 | 416 | 697 | 188 | 300 | 33 | 7 | 295 | 86 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | A+ MLE | South Bend Cubs | — | 46 | 41 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 18 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 220 | 304 | 244 | 548 | 24 | 363 | 39 | 9 | 236 | 46 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | ROK MLE | ACL Cubs | — | 26 | 23 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 217 | 308 | 478 | 786 | 261 | 241 | 27 | 8 | 299 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | MLB MLE | Chicago Cubs | — | 28 | 25 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 280 | 357 | 440 | 797 | 160 | 462 | 39 | 7 | 359 | 129 | +1 | +0 | +0 | -4 | +1 | -0.2 |
| 2024 | 24 | AAA MLE | Iowa Cubs | — | 283 | 255 | 50 | 11 | 0 | 12 | 24 | 104 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 196 | 273 | 380 | 653 | 184 | 265 | 37 | 8 | 281 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | MLB MLE | Pittsburgh Pirates | — | 234 | 216 | 47 | 6 | 1 | 6 | 17 | 80 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 218 | 275 | 338 | 613 | 120 | 313 | 34 | 7 | 279 | 75 | -7 | +0 | -1 | -3 | +5 | -0.7 |
| 2017 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Giants | — | 274 | 246 | 44 | 10 | 2 | 2 | 22 | 49 | 5 | 18 | 11 | 179 | 260 | 260 | 520 | 81 | 214 | 18 | 8 | 242 | 50 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 17 | ROK RAW | DSL Giants | — | 274 | 235 | 69 | 17 | 4 | 5 | 33 | 40 | 5 | 18 | 11 | 294 | 392 | 464 | 856 | 170 | 335 | 15 | 12 | 381 | 50 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 18 | ROK MLE | AZL Giants Black | — | 208 | 186 | 32 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 17 | 73 | 3 | 8 | 5 | 172 | 252 | 263 | 516 | 91 | 255 | 35 | 8 | 238 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 18 | ROK RAW | AZL Giants Black | — | 208 | 176 | 44 | 5 | 2 | 6 | 27 | 51 | 3 | 8 | 5 | 250 | 359 | 403 | 763 | 153 | 317 | 25 | 13 | 342 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 19 | ROK MLE | AZL Giants Orange | — | 46 | 44 | 13 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 13 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 295 | 326 | 727 | 1.053 | 432 | 308 | 28 | 2 | 412 | 165 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 19 | ROK RAW | AZL Giants Orange | — | 46 | 43 | 17 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 2 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 395 | 435 | 1.000 | 1.435 | 605 | 370 | 20 | 4 | 600 | 165 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 21 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 456 | 424 | 75 | 14 | 3 | 14 | 27 | 173 | 0 | 21 | 8 | 177 | 226 | 323 | 549 | 146 | 252 | 38 | 6 | 239 | 48 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 21 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 456 | 408 | 94 | 20 | 4 | 18 | 43 | 125 | 0 | 21 | 8 | 230 | 304 | 431 | 735 | 201 | 281 | 27 | 9 | 322 | 48 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | AA MLE | 4 teams | — | 567 | 511 | 108 | 25 | 2 | 30 | 45 | 197 | 7 | 23 | 3 | 211 | 284 | 444 | 728 | 233 | 272 | 35 | 8 | 313 | 98 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | AA RAW | 4 teams | — | 567 | 493 | 122 | 28 | 3 | 38 | 63 | 159 | 7 | 23 | 3 | 247 | 341 | 548 | 889 | 300 | 281 | 28 | 11 | 383 | 98 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | AAA MLE | 5 teams | — | 318 | 290 | 65 | 16 | 2 | 10 | 22 | 110 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 224 | 288 | 397 | 685 | 172 | 320 | 35 | 7 | 291 | 83 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | AAA RAW | 5 teams | — | 318 | 279 | 75 | 20 | 2 | 10 | 33 | 89 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 269 | 354 | 462 | 817 | 194 | 357 | 28 | 10 | 360 | 83 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | AAA MLE | 3 teams | — | 406 | 364 | 73 | 16 | 0 | 16 | 34 | 150 | 6 | 7 | 2 | 201 | 280 | 376 | 656 | 176 | 285 | 37 | 8 | 288 | 81 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | AAA RAW | 3 teams | — | 406 | 351 | 91 | 21 | 0 | 23 | 47 | 116 | 6 | 7 | 2 | 259 | 356 | 516 | 872 | 256 | 318 | 29 | 12 | 381 | 81 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | MLB MLE | 2 teams | — | 316 | 289 | 64 | 8 | 1 | 9 | 23 | 108 | 1 | 10 | 1 | 221 | 281 | 349 | 631 | 128 | 314 | 34 | 7 | 279 | 75 | -9 | +2 | -1 | -3 | +7 | -0.6 |
| 2025 | 25 | MLB RAW | 2 teams | — | 316 | 286 | 60 | 8 | 1 | 10 | 26 | 106 | 1 | 10 | 1 | 210 | 278 | 350 | 628 | 140 | 289 | 34 | 8 | 281 | 75 | -9 | +2 | -1 | -3 | +7 | -0.6 |
| 2017 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Giants | — | 274 | 245 | 44 | 10 | 2 | 2 | 22 | 49 | 5 | 18 | 11 | 180 | 260 | 261 | 521 | 82 | 215 | 18 | 8 | 242 | 50 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 18 | ROK MLE | AZL Giants Black | — | 208 | 186 | 32 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 17 | 73 | 3 | 8 | 5 | 172 | 252 | 263 | 516 | 91 | 252 | 35 | 8 | 238 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 19 | ROK MLE | AZL Giants Orange | — | 46 | 44 | 13 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 13 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 295 | 326 | 727 | 1.053 | 432 | 276 | 28 | 2 | 412 | 165 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 21 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 456 | 426 | 75 | 14 | 3 | 14 | 27 | 173 | 0 | 21 | 8 | 176 | 226 | 322 | 548 | 146 | 250 | 38 | 6 | 239 | 48 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | AA MLE | 4 teams | — | 567 | 510 | 108 | 25 | 2 | 30 | 45 | 197 | 7 | 23 | 3 | 212 | 284 | 445 | 729 | 233 | 270 | 35 | 8 | 313 | 98 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | AAA MLE | 5 teams | — | 318 | 289 | 65 | 16 | 2 | 10 | 22 | 110 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 225 | 288 | 398 | 686 | 173 | 319 | 35 | 7 | 291 | 83 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | AAA MLE | 3 teams | — | 406 | 363 | 73 | 16 | 0 | 16 | 34 | 150 | 6 | 7 | 2 | 201 | 280 | 377 | 657 | 176 | 283 | 37 | 8 | 288 | 81 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | MLB MLE | 2 teams | — | 316 | 289 | 64 | 8 | 1 | 9 | 23 | 108 | 1 | 10 | 1 | 221 | 281 | 349 | 631 | 128 | 313 | 34 | 7 | 279 | 75 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 24 | AAA MLE | 3 teams | — | 406 | 363 | 73 | 16 | 0 | 16 | 34 | 150 | 6 | 7 | 2 | 201 | 280 | 377 | 657 | 176 | 283 | 37 | 8 | 288 | 81 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | MLB MLE | 2 teams | — | 316 | 289 | 64 | 8 | 1 | 9 | 23 | 108 | 1 | 10 | 1 | 221 | 281 | 349 | 631 | 128 | 313 | 34 | 7 | 279 | 75 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB MLE | PIT | 100% | 284 | 257 | 57 | 9 | 1 | 11 | 23 | 85 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 223 | 291 | 395 | 686 | 171 | 285 | 30 | 8 | 304 | 92 | -3 | +1 | +1 | -3 | +6 | 0.3 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB CTX | PIT | 100% | 177 | 160 | 35 | 6 | 1 | 6 | 14 | 53 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 221 | 289 | 384 | 674 | 164 | 285 | 30 | 8 | 299 | 92 | -2 | +0 | +1 | -2 | +4 | 0.1 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 28 | MLB MLE | PIT | 82% | 225 | 203 | 44 | 7 | 1 | 8 | 18 | 68 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 221 | 289 | 389 | 678 | 168 | 283 | 30 | 8 | 301 | 90 | -3 | +0 | +0 | -2 | +5 | 0.0 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB CTX | PIT | 82% | 184 | 166 | 36 | 6 | 1 | 6 | 15 | 55 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 219 | 287 | 379 | 666 | 161 | 283 | 30 | 8 | 296 | 90 | -2 | +0 | +0 | -2 | +4 | 0.0 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 463 | 424 | 95 | 14 | 3 | 14 | 34 | 154 | 2 | 7 | 2 | 224 | 285 | 370 | 655 | 146 | 314 | 33 | 7 | 293 | 76 | -8 | +1 | -1 | -13 | +10 | -1.1 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 595 | 134 | 20 | 4 | 20 | 48 | 216 | 3 | 10 | 3 | 225 | 286 | 373 | 659 | 148 | 315 | 33 | 7 | 293 | 76 | -11 | +1 | -1 | -18 | +14 | -1.6 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 2993 | 2717 | 554 | 107 | 14 | 105 | 223 | 994 | 30 | 98 | 32 | 204 | 272 | 370 | 641 | 166 | 274 | 33 | 7 | 281 | 76 | -10 | +1 | +0 | -15 | +15 | -1.0 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 590 | 120 | 23 | 3 | 23 | 48 | 216 | 7 | 21 | 7 | 203 | 271 | 369 | 641 | 166 | 273 | 33 | 7 | 281 | 76 | -10 | +1 | +0 | -15 | +14 | -1.0 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2024 AAAIowa Cubs · 283 PAwOBA .362 → .281 (−81)K% 30.4% → 36.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 30.39% | ÷0.998 | ×1.200 | — | — | 36.56% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.31% | ÷0.949 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.048 | 8.62% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.06% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.048 | 1.04% |
| Singles /BIP | 18.01% | ÷0.994 | ×0.930 | ×0.986 | ×1.048 | 17.42% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.07% | ÷0.962 | ×0.830 | ×0.986 | ×1.048 | 7.20% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.970 | ×0.986 | ×1.048 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 11.18% | ÷1.079 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.048 | 7.60% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 116, 1B 99, 2B 92, 3B 100, K 100, BB 90 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 27.2 → +4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.986.
Result: wOBA .362 → .281; ISO .271 → .185; BABIP .292 → .265. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AAAIowa Cubs · 161 PAwOBA .368 → .295 (−74)K% 28.0% → 32.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 27.95% | ÷1.019 | ×1.200 | — | — | 32.91% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.32% | ÷1.014 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.050 | 6.66% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.050 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.00% | ÷1.025 | ×0.930 | ×0.981 | ×1.050 | 18.70% |
| Doubles /BIP | 12.00% | ÷1.049 | ×0.830 | ×0.981 | ×1.050 | 9.78% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.916 | ×0.970 | ×0.981 | ×1.050 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 8.00% | ÷0.965 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.050 | 6.09% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 93, 1B 105, 2B 110, 3B 83, K 104, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.981.
Result: wOBA .368 → .295; ISO .248 → .188; BABIP .344 → .300. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 A+South Bend Cubs · 46 PAwOBA .305 → .236 (−69)K% 30.4% → 40.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 30.43% | ÷0.966 | ×1.270 | — | — | 39.99% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.04% | ÷1.060 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.998 | 8.72% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.17% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×0.998 | 1.71% |
| Singles /BIP | 36.00% | ÷0.988 | ×0.920 | — | ×0.998 | 33.46% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.00% | ÷1.140 | ×0.810 | — | ×0.998 | 2.84% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.850 | — | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.197 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 139, 1B 98, 2B 128, 3B 130, K 93, BB 112 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .305 → .236; ISO .026 → .017; BABIP .400 → .363. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 ROKACL Cubs · 26 PAwOBA .435 → .299 (−136)K% 19.2% → 27.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 19.23% | ÷1.000 | ×1.440 | — | — | 27.69% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 15.38% | ÷1.000 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.965 | 9.20% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.85% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.965 | 2.67% |
| Singles /BIP | 12.50% | ÷1.000 | ×0.820 | — | ×0.965 | 9.89% |
| Doubles /BIP | 12.50% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.965 | 8.69% |
| Triples /BIP | 6.25% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.965 | 4.34% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.25% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.965 | 4.70% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 19.5 → −3.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.5 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .435 → .299; ISO .333 → .236; BABIP .333 → .241. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 AATennessee Smokies · 350 PAwOBA .370 → .313 (−57)K% 26.0% → 33.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 26.00% | ÷0.958 | ×1.220 | — | — | 33.13% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.00% | ÷0.940 | ×0.680 | — | ×1.042 | 7.54% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.57% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×1.042 | 0.50% |
| Singles /BIP | 15.07% | ÷0.982 | ×0.920 | ×1.014 | ×1.042 | 14.92% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.22% | ÷0.929 | ×0.910 | ×1.014 | ×1.042 | 8.51% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.91% | ÷0.973 | ×0.880 | ×1.014 | ×1.042 | 0.87% |
| Home runs /BIP | 10.96% | ÷1.010 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.042 | 9.04% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 102, 1B 96, 2B 86, 3B 95, K 92, BB 88 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 24.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.014.
Result: wOBA .370 → .313; ISO .303 → .248; BABIP .269 → .264. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 A+South Bend Cubs · 100 PAwOBA .397 → .301 (−95)K% 35.0% → 44.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 35.00% | ÷1.003 | ×1.270 | — | — | 44.34% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.00% | ÷0.986 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.012 | 7.29% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.00% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×1.012 | 0.80% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.22% | ÷1.010 | ×0.920 | — | ×1.012 | 20.48% |
| Doubles /BIP | 11.11% | ÷1.020 | ×0.810 | — | ×1.012 | 8.93% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.097 | ×0.850 | — | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 12.96% | ÷0.938 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.012 | 11.19% |
Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 88, 1B 102, 2B 104, 3B 119, K 101, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .397 → .301; ISO .303 → .227; BABIP .383 → .331. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 AAAIowa Cubs · 84 PAwOBA .392 → .327 (−64)K% 25.0% → 30.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.00% | ÷0.988 | ×1.200 | — | — | 30.36% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 15.48% | ÷1.048 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.050 | 10.70% |
| HBP% /PA | 4.76% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.050 | 4.70% |
| Singles /BIP | 15.91% | ÷0.985 | ×0.930 | ×1.035 | ×1.050 | 16.31% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.55% | ÷0.967 | ×0.830 | ×1.035 | ×1.050 | 4.24% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.118 | ×0.970 | ×1.035 | ×1.050 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 13.64% | ÷0.996 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.050 | 10.06% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 99, 1B 97, 2B 93, 3B 124, K 98, BB 110 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (5.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.035.
Result: wOBA .392 → .327; ISO .308 → .241; BABIP .231 → .223. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 ASan Jose Giants · 274 PAwOBA .330 → .240 (−90)K% 28.8% → 40.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 28.83% | ÷0.959 | ×1.360 | — | — | 40.87% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.04% | ÷1.203 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.015 | 7.01% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.015 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 18.87% | ÷0.977 | ×0.920 | ×0.984 | ×1.015 | 17.76% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.81% | ÷1.014 | ×0.830 | ×0.984 | ×1.015 | 7.20% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.89% | ÷1.098 | ×0.910 | ×0.984 | ×1.015 | 1.56% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.66% | ÷1.008 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.015 | 4.56% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 102, 1B 95, 2B 103, 3B 120, K 92, BB 141 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.984.
Result: wOBA .330 → .240; ISO .197 → .144; BABIP .307 → .272. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .