Alexander CanarioLF Pittsburgh Pirates
Age 26 R/R 6'0" / 215 lbs MLB BB +7% Svc 3.000 · Ctrl thru 2028
wRC+†vL 5978vR 80
AVG/OBP/SLG.207 / .273 / .370
PA284
HR11
SB5
K%34
BB%8
xwOBA.295
Barrel%12.4%
MLB%100%
BAT: -6.9 runs (wOBA-derived runs vs avg)-7BATRUN: +1.0 runs (SB/CS + UBR baserunning)+1RUNFLD: -0.0 runs (Defensive runs vs avg)-0FLDPOS: -3.0 runs (Positional adjustment)-3POSREP: +8.0 runs (Replacement-level credit)+8REPTotal WAR: -0.10-0.1WAR
Scouting · nowfuture
HIT
4040
PWR
6060
SPD
5555
EYE
4945
trajectory · 10 yrs
-0.1peak
2026
Barrel%
7812.4
xwOBA
380.295
Avg EV
2887.4
Whiff%
100.192
Chase%
340.349
Speed
6628.1
Bat Spd
9076.0

Contract

ESTIMATED  ·  service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status   Arb-1
MLB Debut   2023
Service   3.000 yrs.days
Team Control Through   2028
First FA Year   2029
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2026Arb-1$0.2M
2027Arb-2$0.4M
2028Arb-3$0.6M
Totals $-2M $-2M +$0.0M

Career Projections (MLE)

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

YearAge LvlTeam PAAB H2B3BHR BBSOHBP SBCS AVGOBPSLGOPS ISOBABIP K%BB% wOBAwRC+ BATRUNFLDPOSREP WAR
201717 ROKDSL Giants 274249 531234 19585 1811 .213.282.333.615 .120.261 217 .268 63 -11 -1 +0 -3 +8 -0.7
201818 ROKAZL Giants Black 208186 31314 17733 85 .167.248.258.506 .091.245 358 .233 37 -15 -0 +0 -2 +6 -1.2
201919 ROKAZL Giants Orange 4644 12215 1131 10 .273.304.7051.009 .432.269 282 .409 171 +4 +0 +0 -0 +1 0.5
202121 A2 teams 456425 7514315 261710 218 .176.224.329.553 .153.246 386 .241 43 -30 +1 +0 -5 +13 -2.1
202222 AA4 teams 567513 10724233 432037 233 .209.279.456.735 .248.264 368 .313 97 -2 +3 +0 -6 +16 1.2
202323 AAA5 teams 318291 6616211 211104 40 .227.288.409.697 .182.320 357 .294 83 -6 +1 -0 -3 +9 0.0
202424 AAA3 teams 406365 7415019 331506 72 .203.280.400.680 .197.278 378 .292 82 -8 +1 +0 -4 +12 -0.0
202525 MLB2 teams 316289 62718 231081 101 .215.275.329.603 .114.307 347 .263 60 -14 +2 -1 -3 +9 -0.9
▸ 2026 Season
202626 MLBPIT 284258 548111 22972 51 .209.277.376.653 .167.282 348 .288 78 -7 +1 -0 -3 +8 -0.1
▸ 2027+ Projections — Projections at projected PA · Park-neutral MLB equivalent · Marcel + aging curve
202727 MLBPIT 339307 6410113 271162 61 .208.277.375.651 .166.282 348 .288 79 -8 +1 -0 -4 +10 -0.1
202828 MLBPIT 365331 6810114 291252 51 .205.273.369.642 .163.282 348 .287 78 -9 +1 -1 -4 +10 -0.3
202929 MLBPIT 370336 6910114 291282 51 .205.272.366.639 .161.281 358 .285 76 -10 +1 -1 -4 +10 -0.4
203030 MLBPIT 373338 6910114 301302 40 .204.273.364.637 .160.279 358 .282 74 -11 +1 -2 -4 +11 -0.6
203131 MLBPIT 358325 6510113 281272 20 .200.268.357.625 .157.277 358 .278 71 -12 +0 -3 -4 +10 -0.8
203232 MLBPIT 339307 619112 271222 10 .199.268.352.620 .153.275 368 .273 67 -13 +0 -4 -4 +10 -1.0
203333 MLBPIT 309281 548110 241131 00 .192.258.335.593 .142.274 378 .268 63 -13 +0 -4 -3 +9 -1.2
203434 MLBPIT 266242 45618 211001 00 .186.254.318.572 .132.272 388 .261 58 -13 +0 -5 -3 +8 -1.3
▸ Career Totals (MLE all levels + projections)
Career 55945087 102917422208 420194443 12034 .202.269.368.637 .166.277 358 .279 72 -178 +10 -21 -60 +158 -9.2
/ 162G 650591 12020324 492265 144 .203.270.369.639 .166.278 358 .279 72 -21 +1 -2 -7 +18 -1.1

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

YearAge LvlTeam PAAB H2B3BHR BBSOHBP SBCS AVGOBPSLGOPS ISOBABIP K%BB% wOBAwRC+ BATRUNFLDPOSREP WAR
201717 ROKDSL Giants 274235 691745 33405 1811 .294.392.464.856 .170.335 1512 .381 149 +15 -1 +8 2.3
201818 ROKAZL Giants Black 208176 44526 27513 85 .250.359.403.763 .153.317 2513 .342 120 +5 -0 +6 1.0
201919 ROKAZL Giants Orange 4643 17317 291 10 .395.4351.0001.435 .605.370 204 .600 317 +11 +0 +1 1.3
202121 A+South Bend Cubs 182170 38619 10460 65 .224.267.429.696 .206.248 255 .302 89 -2 -1 +5 0.2
202121 ASan Jose Giants 274238 561439 33790 153 .235.328.433.761 .197.307 2912 .335 114 +4 +2 +8 1.4
202222 AAAIowa Cubs 8465 15206 13214 30 .231.390.538.929 .308.231 2515 .398 162 +6 +1 +2 0.9
202222 AATennessee Smokies 350310 7718224 36912 173 .248.330.552.882 .303.269 2610 .379 148 +19 +2 +10 3.2
202222 A+South Bend Cubs 10089 25607 10351 30 .281.360.584.944 .303.383 3510 .408 171 +8 +1 +3 1.2
202222 INTLAguilas Cibaenas 3329 5211 4120 00 .172.273.414.687 .241.250 3612 .302 89 -0 +0 +1 0.1
202323 MLBChicago Cubs 1717 5111 080 00 .294.294.647.941 .353.500 470 .399 164 +1 +0 -0 -3 +0 -0.2
202323 AAAIowa Cubs 161145 401208 15450 20 .276.344.524.868 .248.344 289 .377 146 +8 +0 +5 1.4
202323 A+South Bend Cubs 4639 10100 6141 00 .256.370.282.652 .026.400 3013 .312 97 -0 +0 +1 0.1
202323 ROKACL Cubs 2621 6211 451 00 .286.423.6191.042 .333.333 1915 .446 200 +3 +0 +1 0.4
202323 INTLAguilas Cibaenas 6857 14400 8172 20 .246.358.316.674 .070.341 2512 .312 97 -0 +0 +2 0.2
202424 MLBChicago Cubs 2825 7101 2111 10 .280.357.440.797 .160.462 397 .358 132 +1 +0 +0 -4 +1 -0.2
202424 AAAIowa Cubs 283247 6013018 32863 52 .243.337.514.851 .271.292 3011 .371 142 +13 +0 +8 2.2
202424 INTLAguilas Cibaenas 9579 24704 13192 10 .304.415.544.959 .241.351 2014 .417 177 +8 +0 +3 1.1
202525 MLBPittsburgh Pirates 234216 47616 17800 31 .218.275.338.613 .120.313 347 .275 69 -8 +0 -1 -3 +7 -0.6
202525 INTLLeones del Escogido 8270 13204 9261 70 .186.287.386.673 .200.214 3211 .296 84 -1 +1 +2 0.2
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career 279258 59828 19991 41 .229.284.368.652 .140.336 357 .291 81 -6 +0 -1 -11 +8 -1.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

Scouting At Match Age Next 3 Yrs Peak 3 Yrs
Comp Age HIT PWR SPD EYE AVG/OBP/SLG ISOBABIP HRSB K%BB% wRC+WAR AVG/OBP/SLG ISOBABIP HRSB K%BB% wRC+WAR AVG/OBP/SLG ISOBABIP HRSB K%BB% wRC+WAR
Alexander Canario (OGILVIE) 26 40 60 55 45 .207/.273/.370 .163.282 115 34% 8% 78 +0.1
Kevin Padlo
2022 · MLB
26 37→40 54→55 48→50 42 .201/.271/.377 .176.280 2210 36% 8% 79 +0.3 .195/.263/.334 .139.273 1613 33% 8% 64 -0.8 .180/.260/.311.131.248151432%9%55-0.8
Peyton Burdick
2023 · MLB
26 36→33 52→55 50 44 .192/.280/.359 .167.275 2012 36% 9% 79 +0.3 .185/.266/.345 .160.294 2012 41% 8% 69 -0.4 .162/.246/.317.156.267211245%8%51-1.1
Jabari Blash
2015 · AAA
26 38→40 53→60 46→50 44 .204/.288/.378 .175.284 2210 35% 9% 87 +0.8 .210/.302/.404 .194.292 258 35% 10% 99 +1.7 .201/.308/.395.194.28425536%11%96+1.0
Travis Demeritte
2021 · MLB
26 41→43 53→60 48→50 41 .212/.280/.385 .172.302 207 35% 8% 85 +0.7 .215/.275/.384 .169.322 2111 38% 7% 82 +0.5 .197/.256/.365.168.292221239%7%65-0.3
Mike Wilson
2010 · AAA
27 38→48 54→60 54→50 40 .203/.280/.380 .178.285 239 36% 7% 84 +0.6 .226/.299/.398 .172.297 2210 30% 8% 96 +1.5 .227/.301/.397.171.29022929%9%92+0.7
J.J. Matijevic
2022 · AAA
26 39→41 53→55 52→50 39 .204/.265/.374 .170.305 219 39% 8% 76 +0.0 .217/.279/.391 .174.301 2111 33% 7% 85 +0.7 .211/.275/.382.171.285201232%7%78+0.2
Kevin Smith
2022 · MLB
26 38→45 54→55 52→50 39 .206/.262/.384 .178.276 2216 34% 6% 77 +0.1 .207/.256/.352 .145.293 1715 34% 6% 66 -0.6 .197/.240/.322.125.287161536%5%49-1.1
Drew Robinson
2018 · MLB
26 39→41 52→55 49→50 46 .205/.281/.375 .170.279 2013 33% 9% 82 +0.5 .216/.291/.369 .153.343 1613 38% 9% 84 +0.6 .187/.269/.319.133.348141346%10%60-0.4
Weston Wilson
2022 · AAA
27 40→43 55 51→55 45 .219/.283/.402 .182.267 2513 28% 8% 90 +1.0 .216/.279/.378 .162.291 2121 32% 8% 82 +0.5 .215/.294/.402.188.269262530%10%92+0.8
Grant Witherspoon
2023 · AAA
26 44→45 52→55 49→50 41 .227/.279/.394 .166.299 2113 31% 6% 86 +0.8 .208/.274/.347 .139.301 1612 34% 8% 72 -0.2 .173/.252/.292.119.260151137%9%46-0.8
Wendell Rijo
2022 · AAA
26 40→42 53→55 47→50 40 .218/.270/.388 .170.274 229 30% 6% 81 +0.4 .220/.281/.366 .146.293 1617 29% 7% 80 +0.4 .223/.287/.368.145.289152727%7%81+0.3
Travis Blankenhorn
2023 · MLB
26 44→43 51→55 49→50 41 .225/.284/.382 .157.302 1912 32% 7% 85 +0.7 .208/.276/.381 .173.269 225 31% 7% 82 +0.5 .184/.258/.359.175.23223131%7%66-0.4
Ryan Cordell
2018 · AAA
26 41 50→55 51→50 40 .216/.263/.367 .151.276 1814 29% 5% 72 -0.2 .207/.256/.332 .125.280 1312 30% 6% 59 -1.1 .182/.237/.307.125.258161335%6%44-0.9
Michael Hermosillo
2021 · MLB
26 39→46 49→55 49→55 38 .201/.276/.347 .146.291 1713 36% 6% 73 -0.1 .223/.311/.402 .179.301 2115 32% 7% 102 +1.9 .209/.294/.409.200.252281829%6%95+0.5
Daniel Palka
2018 · AAA
26 41→43 53→60 47→50 37 .215/.262/.383 .168.298 229 35% 6% 76 +0.0 .219/.277/.401 .182.288 254 32% 7% 87 +0.8 .212/.281/.401.189.26526430%8%87+0.7
Kent Matthes
2014 · AAA
27 40→49 55→60 50 37 .220/.261/.409 .189.274 2412 30% 4% 83 +0.6 .201/.246/.342 .141.271 1511 31% 5% 58 -1.2 .184/.230/.315.130.24914831%5%41-1.3
Ruben Cardenas
2023 · AAA
25 39→42 57→55 45→50 37 .216/.263/.404 .189.279 279 34% 6% 82 +0.5 .222/.281/.396 .174.282 2310 29% 6% 88 +0.9 .221/.285/.395.175.272231127%6%86+0.6
Stuart Fairchild
2023 · MLB
27 44→43 53→50 50→55 42 .227/.302/.402 .174.300 2113 30% 7% 98 +1.6 .225/.303/.374 .149.296 1619 28% 8% 92 +1.2 .217/.302/.357.140.282152527%8%83+0.3
Kyle Russell
2012 · AAA
26 41→44 54→60 51→45 38 .208/.273/.395 .187.323 229 41% 7% 84 +0.6 .202/.269/.353 .151.309 177 38% 8% 72 -0.2 .181/.255/.315.133.27215637%8%56-0.5
Jake Rogers
2021 · MLB
26 37→40 52→55 49→45 43 .199/.274/.359 .160.270 205 34% 8% 76 +0.0 .230/.296/.426 .196.314 257 33% 8% 102 +1.8 .213/.276/.413.200.26928232%7%88+0.4