Bobby Dalbec

1B Omaha Storm Chasers

Age 32 R/R 6'3" / 225 lbs AAA HR -15%K -8% Svc 7.000 · Ctrl thru 2027

Overview

AAAExt / FA-dealFA 2028

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2023	28	AAABOS	493	.269/.384/.557	33	18	86	—	.199/.292/.383
2023	28	MLBBOS	53	.204/.264/.306	1	1	58	-1.2
2024	29	AAABOS	410	.252/.338/.479	20	11	60	—	.188/.250/.340
2024	29	MLBBOS	93	.133/.217/.193	1	3	16	-1.6
2025	30	AAAKC	455	.269/.351/.525	24	5	70	—	.195/.260/.363
2025	30	MLBCWS	21	.222/.333/.278	0	0	82	-0.8
2026	31	No MLB games played
2027PROJ10% MLB	32	MLBKC	24	.193/.261/.341	1	1	72	-0.0
2028PROJ27% MLB	33	MLBKC	65	.185/.252/.323	2	2	64	-0.3

Last 3 seasons WAR -3.6 · Next 2 projected WAR -0.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2027Service7.000First FA2028

2027Ext / FA-deal$1M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2023-2025

Bat Spd69

Barrel%55

Speed47

Avg EV33

xwOBA10

CompsJason Repko (age 31) · Brad Eldred (age 32) · Jose Vargas (age 31)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†vL 7472vR 66

AVG/OBP/SLG.193 / .261 / .341

PA24

HR1

K%33

BB%8

BABIP273

ISO182

MLB%10%

Value2027 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · Splits · ContractCON 45 / POW 60

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2023-2025

CONTACT45

xAVG

100.145

POWER60

Barrel%

558.9

Avg EV

3387.8

Bat Spd

6973.3

EYE45

scouting grade only

SPEED45

Sprint

4727.4

Platoon Splits2024 · 93 PA

vs LHP

vs RHP

Edge

—

wRC+

-16

▶▶R

wOBA

144

233

▶▶R

ISO

—

106

—

BABIP

267

250

◀L

53.8%

40.7%

▶▶R

BB%

7.7%

9.3%

▶▶R

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status FA

MLB Debut 2020

Service 7.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2027

First FA Year 2028

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Ext / FA-deal	$1M	—	—	—
Totals		$1M		$-0.2M	-$1M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2017	22	A	Greenville Drive	—	329	284	70	15	0	13	36	123	7	4	5	246	346	437	782	190	383	37	11	348	35	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	22	ROK	GCL Red Sox	—	32	27	7	1	0	0	5	9	0	1	0	259	375	296	671	37	389	28	16	319	26	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	23	AA	Portland Sea Dogs	—	124	111	29	8	1	6	6	46	5	0	0	261	328	514	841	252	377	37	5	362	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	23	A+	Salem Red Sox	—	419	344	88	27	2	26	60	130	8	3	1	256	379	573	951	317	318	31	14	405	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	23	INTL	Mesa Solar Sox	—	90	73	16	6	0	3	15	32	2	0	0	219	367	425	791	205	342	36	17	358	128	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	24	AAA	Pawtucket Red Sox	—	123	113	29	4	0	7	5	29	3	0	2	257	306	478	784	221	278	24	4	339	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	24	AA	Portland Sea Dogs	—	439	359	84	15	2	20	68	110	11	6	4	234	372	454	826	220	278	25	15	369	81	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	25	MLB	Boston Red Sox	—	92	80	21	3	0	8	10	39	2	0	0	263	359	600	959	337	394	42	11	413	165	+7	+0	-0	-2	+2	0.7
2021	26	MLB	Boston Red Sox	—	453	417	100	21	5	25	28	156	7	2	0	240	299	494	793	254	316	34	6	345	116	+9	+0	-11	-8	+10	0.0
2022	27	MLB	Boston Red Sox	—	353	317	68	9	2	12	29	118	3	3	0	215	287	369	656	155	293	33	8	292	82	-8	+1	-3	-7	+8	-1.0
2022	27	AAA	Worcester Red Sox	—	53	48	12	0	0	5	3	14	1	1	0	250	308	562	870	312	233	26	6	369	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	28	MLB	Boston Red Sox	—	53	49	10	2	0	1	4	28	0	1	0	204	264	306	570	102	450	53	8	260	58	-3	+0	-1	-10	+1	-1.2
2023	28	AAA	Worcester Red Sox	—	493	413	111	14	3	33	64	169	13	18	2	269	384	557	941	288	364	34	13	408	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	29	MLB	Boston Red Sox	—	93	83	11	2	0	1	8	43	1	3	0	133	217	193	410	60	256	46	9	196	16	-9	+1	+0	-9	+2	-1.6
2024	29	AAA	Worcester Red Sox	—	410	361	91	20	1	20	46	148	1	11	1	252	338	479	817	227	364	36	11	359	60	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	30	MLB	Chicago White Sox	—	21	18	4	1	0	0	3	6	0	0	0	222	333	278	611	56	333	29	14	290	82	-0	+0	+1	-8	+0	-0.8
2025	30	AAA	Omaha Storm Chasers	—	455	402	108	27	2	24	45	155	6	5	0	269	351	525	876	256	373	34	10	381	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	1065	964	214	38	7	47	82	390	13	9	0	222	292	422	714	200	314	37	8	315	99	-1	+2	-14	-44	+23	-3.5
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2017	22	A MLE	Greenville Drive	—	329	297	47	10	0	6	23	165	7	4	5	158	235	253	488	94	321	50	7	220	35	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	22	ROK MLE	GCL Red Sox	—	32	29	5	1	0	0	3	13	0	1	0	172	250	207	457	34	305	41	9	207	26	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	23	AA MLE	Portland Sea Dogs	—	124	114	23	6	1	4	3	57	5	0	0	202	254	377	631	175	330	46	2	267	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	23	A+ MLE	Salem Red Sox	—	419	365	61	16	1	21	39	192	8	3	1	167	262	389	651	222	245	46	9	284	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	24	AAA MLE	Pawtucket Red Sox	—	123	114	27	4	0	6	4	35	3	0	2	237	281	430	711	193	264	28	3	295	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	24	AA MLE	Portland Sea Dogs	—	439	383	73	11	2	17	44	136	11	6	4	191	292	363	655	172	237	31	10	288	81	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	25	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	—	92	80	21	3	0	8	10	39	2	0	0	263	359	600	959	337	394	42	11	412	165	+7	+0	-0	-2	+2	0.7
2021	26	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	—	453	418	99	19	6	26	27	156	7	2	0	237	294	498	792	261	316	34	6	340	116	+9	+0	-11	-8	+10	0.0
2022	27	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	—	353	317	66	8	2	12	29	118	3	3	0	208	281	360	640	151	293	33	8	289	82	-8	+1	-3	-7	+8	-1.0
2022	27	AAA MLE	Worcester Red Sox	—	53	49	10	0	0	4	2	17	1	1	0	204	250	449	699	245	207	32	4	290	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	28	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	—	53	49	10	2	0	1	4	28	0	1	0	204	264	306	570	102	450	53	8	254	58	-3	+0	-1	-10	+1	-1.2
2023	28	AAA MLE	Worcester Red Sox	—	493	433	86	8	3	22	44	198	13	18	2	199	292	383	675	185	291	40	9	296	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	29	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	—	93	83	11	2	0	1	8	43	1	3	0	133	217	193	410	60	256	46	9	192	16	-9	+1	+0	-9	+2	-1.6
2024	29	AAA MLE	Worcester Red Sox	—	410	377	71	16	1	13	30	177	1	11	1	188	250	340	590	151	304	43	7	257	60	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	30	MLB MLE	Chicago White Sox	—	21	18	4	1	0	0	3	6	0	0	0	222	333	278	611	56	333	29	14	289	82	-0	+0	+1	-8	+0	-0.8
2025	30	AAA MLE	Omaha Storm Chasers	—	455	416	81	21	2	15	31	185	6	5	0	195	260	363	623	168	297	41	7	272	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	22	A MLE	2 teams	—	361	326	53	11	0	6	26	178	7	5	5	163	240	252	491	89	329	49	7	219	34	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	22	A RAW	2 teams	—	361	311	77	16	0	13	41	132	7	5	5	248	348	424	773	177	383	37	11	346	34	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	23	A+ MLE	3 teams	—	633	559	98	26	2	29	50	291	15	3	1	175	261	385	646	209	278	46	8	280	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	23	A+ RAW	3 teams	—	633	528	133	41	3	35	81	208	15	3	1	252	367	540	907	288	333	33	13	390	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	24	AA MLE	2 teams	—	562	497	98	14	2	22	48	170	14	6	6	197	286	366	652	169	247	30	9	290	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	24	AA RAW	2 teams	—	562	472	113	19	2	27	73	139	14	6	6	239	358	460	818	220	278	25	13	363	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	25	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	—	92	80	21	3	0	8	10	39	2	0	0	263	359	600	959	337	394	42	11	412	165	+7	+0	-0	-2	+2	0.7
2020	25	MLB RAW	Boston Red Sox	—	92	80	21	3	0	8	10	39	2	0	0	263	359	600	959	337	394	42	11	413	165	+7	+0	-0	-2	+2	0.7
2021	26	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	—	453	418	99	19	6	26	27	156	7	2	0	237	294	498	792	261	308	34	6	340	116	+9	+0	-11	-8	+10	0.0
2021	26	MLB RAW	Boston Red Sox	—	453	417	100	21	5	25	28	156	7	2	0	240	299	494	793	254	316	34	6	345	116	+9	+0	-11	-8	+10	0.0
2022	27	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	406	366	77	8	2	16	31	135	4	4	0	210	279	374	654	164	277	33	8	289	82	-9	+1	-3	-7	+9	-1.0
2022	27	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	406	365	80	9	2	17	32	132	4	4	0	219	289	395	684	175	285	33	8	302	82	-9	+1	-3	-7	+9	-1.0
2023	28	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	546	482	95	10	3	23	48	226	13	19	2	197	287	373	661	176	305	41	9	292	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	28	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	546	462	121	16	3	34	68	197	13	19	2	262	372	530	902	268	372	36	12	393	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	29	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	503	460	82	18	1	14	38	220	2	14	1	178	244	313	557	135	298	44	8	245	52	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	29	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	503	444	102	22	1	21	54	191	2	14	1	230	316	426	742	196	346	38	11	328	52	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	30	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	476	434	85	22	2	15	34	191	6	5	0	196	264	359	623	164	304	40	7	273	71	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	30	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	476	420	112	28	2	24	48	161	6	5	0	267	350	514	864	248	371	34	10	377	71	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	22	A MLE	2 teams	—	361	325	53	11	0	6	26	178	7	5	5	163	240	252	492	89	320	49	7	219	34	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	23	A+ MLE	3 teams	—	633	563	98	26	2	29	50	291	15	3	1	174	261	382	643	208	264	46	8	280	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	24	AA MLE	2 teams	—	562	495	98	14	2	22	48	170	14	6	6	198	286	368	654	170	243	30	9	290	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	25	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	—	92	80	21	3	0	8	10	39	2	0	0	263	359	600	959	337	394	42	11	412	165	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	26	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	—	453	416	99	19	6	26	27	156	7	2	0	238	294	500	794	262	316	34	6	340	116	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	27	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	406	368	77	8	2	16	31	135	4	4	0	209	279	372	652	163	282	33	8	289	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	28	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	546	480	95	10	3	23	48	226	13	19	2	198	287	375	662	177	306	41	9	292	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	29	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	503	458	82	18	1	14	38	220	2	14	1	179	244	314	558	135	295	44	8	245	52	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	30	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	476	433	85	22	2	15	34	191	6	5	0	196	264	360	624	164	299	40	7	273	71	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	29	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	503	458	82	18	1	14	38	220	2	14	1	179	244	314	558	135	295	44	8	245	52	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	30	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	476	433	85	22	2	15	34	191	6	5	0	196	264	360	624	164	299	40	7	273	71	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	32	MLB MLE	KC	10%	380	345	68	14	2	12	28	134	4	16	3	196	264	352	616	156	275	35	7	275	72	-13	+2	+1	-7	+8	-0.5
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	32	MLB CTX	KC	10%	24	22	5	1	0	1	2	8	0	1	0	193	261	341	602	148	273	33	8	269	72	-1	+0	+0	-0	+1	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	33	MLB MLE	KC	27%	238	217	40	8	1	7	17	86	2	7	2	188	255	334	589	146	266	36	7	264	64	-10	+1	-4	-4	+5	-1.3
2028	33	MLB CTX	KC	27%	65	59	11	2	0	2	5	23	1	2	0	185	252	323	576	139	264	35	8	258	64	-3	+0	-1	-1	+1	-0.3
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	1130	1023	225	40	7	49	87	413	14	11	0	220	290	416	706	196	311	37	8	311	77	-4	+2	-15	-45	+24	-3.8
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	588	129	23	4	28	50	238	8	6	0	219	289	415	704	196	311	37	8	311	77	-2	+1	-9	-26	+14	-2.2
Career	—	MLE		—	4508	4055	791	148	20	174	347	1776	74	75	19	195	271	370	641	175	289	39	8	281	77	-19	+4	-18	-53	+33	-5.3
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	585	114	21	3	25	50	256	11	11	3	195	271	369	641	174	289	39	8	281	77	-8	+2	-7	-22	+14	-2.3

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2025 AAAOmaha Storm Chasers · 455 PAwOBA .372 → .272 (−100)K% 34.1% → 40.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	34.07%	÷1.007	×1.200	—	—	40.58%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	9.67%	÷0.935	×0.690	—	×0.972	6.94%
HBP% /PA	1.32%	—	×0.940	—	×0.972	1.20%
Singles /BIP	22.27%	÷1.108	×0.930	×1.007	×0.972	18.28%
Doubles /BIP	10.93%	÷1.006	×0.830	×1.007	×0.972	8.83%
Triples /BIP	0.81%	÷0.900	×0.970	×1.007	×0.972	0.85%
Home runs /BIP	9.72%	÷1.003	×0.700	—	×0.972	6.59%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 101, 1B 122, 2B 101, 3B 80, K 101, BB 87 — applied at half strength. Age: age 30 vs a level average of 27.2 → −2.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.007.

Result: wOBA .372 → .272; ISO .256 → .176; BABIP .373 → .297. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAAWorcester Red Sox · 410 PAwOBA .351 → .257 (−93)K% 36.1% → 43.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	36.10%	÷1.004	×1.200	—	—	43.13%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	11.22%	÷1.049	×0.690	—	×0.982	7.24%
HBP% /PA	0.24%	—	×0.940	—	×0.982	0.23%
Singles /BIP	23.47%	÷1.036	×0.930	×0.985	×0.982	20.38%
Doubles /BIP	9.39%	÷0.951	×0.830	×0.985	×0.982	7.92%
Triples /BIP	0.47%	÷1.143	×0.970	×0.985	×0.982	0.39%
Home runs /BIP	9.39%	÷0.996	×0.700	—	×0.982	6.48%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 99, 1B 107, 2B 90, 3B 129, K 101, BB 110 — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 27.2 → −1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.985.

Result: wOBA .351 → .257; ISO .227 → .158; BABIP .364 → .304. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAAWorcester Red Sox · 493 PAwOBA .399 → .296 (−103)K% 34.3% → 40.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	34.28%	÷1.023	×1.200	—	—	40.22%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	12.98%	÷0.986	×0.690	—	×0.992	9.02%
HBP% /PA	2.64%	—	×0.940	—	×0.992	2.46%
Singles /BIP	25.00%	÷0.996	×0.930	×0.954	×0.992	22.08%
Doubles /BIP	5.74%	÷1.309	×0.830	×0.954	×0.992	3.44%
Triples /BIP	1.23%	÷0.905	×0.970	×0.954	×0.992	1.25%
Home runs /BIP	13.52%	÷1.008	×0.700	—	×0.992	9.32%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 102, 1B 99, 2B 162, 3B 81, K 105, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.954.

Result: wOBA .399 → .296; ISO .288 → .195; BABIP .364 → .291. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAAWorcester Red Sox · 53 PAwOBA .365 → .290 (−75)K% 26.4% → 31.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	26.42%	÷1.013	×1.200	—	—	31.29%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	5.66%	÷0.987	×0.690	—	×1.003	3.97%
HBP% /PA	1.89%	—	×0.940	—	×1.003	1.78%
Singles /BIP	20.59%	÷1.010	×0.930	—	×1.003	19.01%
Doubles /BIP	0.00%	÷1.179	×0.830	—	×1.003	0.00%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.970	—	×1.003	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	14.71%	÷0.939	×0.700	—	×1.003	10.99%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 88, 1B 102, 2B 136, 3B 100, K 103, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .365 → .290; ISO .312 → .229; BABIP .233 → .207. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AAPortland Sea Dogs · 439 PAwOBA .356 → .288 (−68)K% 25.1% → 30.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	25.06%	÷0.991	×1.220	—	—	30.85%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	14.12%	÷0.997	×0.700	—	×1.012	10.04%
HBP% /PA	2.51%	—	×0.850	—	×1.012	2.16%
Singles /BIP	18.88%	÷1.016	×0.970	×0.950	×1.012	17.32%
Doubles /BIP	6.02%	÷1.158	×0.860	×0.950	×1.012	4.30%
Triples /BIP	0.80%	÷1.150	×0.950	×0.950	×1.012	0.64%
Home runs /BIP	8.03%	÷0.953	×0.780	—	×1.012	6.65%

Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 91, 1B 103, 2B 132, 3B 130, K 98, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .356 → .288; ISO .220 → .178; BABIP .278 → .237. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AAAPawtucket Red Sox · 123 PAwOBA .334 → .295 (−40)K% 23.6% → 28.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	23.58%	÷1.002	×1.200	—	—	28.24%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	4.07%	÷0.963	×0.690	—	×1.048	3.05%
HBP% /PA	2.44%	—	×0.940	—	×1.048	2.40%
Singles /BIP	21.43%	÷0.953	×0.930	×0.950	×1.048	20.82%
Doubles /BIP	4.76%	÷0.896	×0.830	×0.950	×1.048	4.39%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.900	×0.970	×0.950	×1.048	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	8.33%	÷1.038	×0.840	—	×1.048	7.07%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 108, 1B 91, 2B 79, 3B 80, K 100, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 27.2 → +4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .334 → .295; ISO .221 → .185; BABIP .278 → .264. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 A+Salem Red Sox · 419 PAwOBA .400 → .284 (−116)K% 31.0% → 45.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	31.03%	÷0.960	×1.420	—	—	45.91%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	14.08%	÷0.939	×0.630	—	×0.998	9.43%
HBP% /PA	1.91%	—	×0.860	—	×0.998	1.64%
Singles /BIP	15.42%	÷1.066	×0.940	×0.950	×0.998	12.90%
Doubles /BIP	12.62%	÷1.102	×0.830	×0.950	×0.998	9.01%
Triples /BIP	0.93%	÷1.037	×0.800	×0.950	×0.998	0.68%
Home runs /BIP	12.15%	÷0.936	×0.900	—	×0.998	11.65%

Factors used: league row CAR. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 87, 1B 113, 2B 120, 3B 107, K 92, BB 88 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .400 → .284; ISO .317 → .238; BABIP .318 → .245. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 AAPortland Sea Dogs · 124 PAwOBA .355 → .267 (−88)K% 37.1% → 46.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	37.10%	÷0.982	×1.220	—	—	46.09%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	4.03%	÷1.051	×0.700	—	×1.027	2.76%
HBP% /PA	4.03%	—	×0.850	—	×1.027	3.52%
Singles /BIP	21.54%	÷1.001	×0.970	×0.967	×1.027	20.73%
Doubles /BIP	12.31%	÷1.052	×0.860	×0.967	×1.027	9.99%
Triples /BIP	1.54%	÷1.150	×0.950	×0.967	×1.027	1.26%
Home runs /BIP	9.23%	÷1.166	×0.780	—	×1.027	6.34%

Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 133, 1B 100, 2B 110, 3B 130, K 96, BB 110 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.967.

Result: wOBA .355 → .267; ISO .252 → .168; BABIP .377 → .330. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1John Mayberry Jr.last yr '15 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,506 PA	2.3	1,506	54	15	234	298	417	-6	-18	1.7	1.7
/162	664	24	7	-2.8	-8.1	0.8	pk7: 2
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 5 projected seasons	1.7	1,133	50	12	221	287	421	-20	-17	0.8	0.9
/162	664	29	7	-11.9	-10.2	0.5	pk7: 1
#2Andy Kosco'65-'74 * career totals — 8 seasons, 2,102 PA	3.2	2,102	73	5	243*	278*	440*	-22	-12	0.1	0.8
/162	664	23	2	-7.1	-3.6	0.0	pk7: 2
#3Eric Anthony'89-'97 * career totals — 9 seasons, 2,243 PA	3.4	2,243	78	24	225*	300*	410*	-22	-22	0.1	0.6
/162	664	23	7	-6.7	-6.6	0.0	pk7: 1
#4Chad Pinderlast yr '22 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,740 PA	2.6	1,740	62	5	242	294	417	-17	-20	0.6	0.6
/162	664	24	2	-6.5	-7.6	0.2	pk7: 1
#5Karim Garcia'95-'04 * career totals — 6 seasons, 1,560 PA	2.3	1,560	66	10	231*	269*	413*	-16	-3	-1.0	0.1
/162	664	28	4	-6.7	-1.3	-0.4	pk7: 1
#6Seth Brownlast yr '25 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,799 PA	2.7	1,799	74	24	227	293	421	-23	-34	-0.8	-0.8
/162	664	27	9	-8.6	-12.4	-0.3	pk7: -1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Bobby Dalbec (OGILVIE)	32	45	60	45	45	195/262/349	154	275	8	10	35%	7%	72	-0.3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Jason Repko 2012 · MLB	31	45→47	45→50	52→55	44	225/283/340	115	281	13	21	25%	6%	76	-0.4	215/275/344	129	278	14	14	27%	7%	75	-0.5	181/242/317	136	231	13	10	27%	6%	54	-0.8
✕Brad Eldred 2012 · MLB	32	37→39	54→65	47→45	38	206/259/382	176	262	23	10	31%	5%	78	-0.3	230/282/450	220	296	30	11	32%	6%	103	+1.5	224/274/519	295	267	43	9	35%	6%	115	+1.1
✕Jose Vargas 2019 · AAA	31	43	55	41→40	37	229/271/405	176	305	24	9	33%	5%	88	+0.4	250/289/467	217	315	31	7	30%	5%	109	+2.0	254/284/507	253	303	39	2	31%	3%	114	+1.1
✕Matt Carson 2013 · MLB	32	46→50	50→60	49→50	40	235/279/394	160	292	18	12	26%	5%	88	+0.4	214/264/334	120	283	14	14	28%	5%	68	-1.0	196/251/301	105	260	12	15	29%	5%	54	-1.1
✕John Andreoli 2022 · AAA	32	40→50	46→45	50→60	46	191/285/319	128	316	13	14	40%	11%	74	-0.6	180/272/311	131	309	15	19	42%	11%	67	-1.1	135/240/256	121	221	16	23	44%	12%	41	-2.1
✕Justin Leone 2009 · AAA	32	39	49→50	52→55	50	205/285/355	150	258	17	18	27%	10%	81	-0.1	191/261/317	126	270	13	13	32%	8%	63	-1.3	124/191/212	89	184	9	6	37%	7%	13	-2.0
✕Keon Broxton 2021 · MLB	31	41→51	47→55	53→60	38	196/265/324	128	336	15	25	44%	8%	67	-1.1	188/262/304	116	366	14	17	48%	8%	61	-1.5	132/213/215	83	277	12	20	53%	8%	22	-2.2
✕Christian Bethancourt 2024 · MLB	32	45→53	51→50	48→50	39	235/270/392	157	286	19	6	26%	4%	84	+0.1	203/239/343	140	254	18	8	28%	4%	61	-1.5	175/207/299	124	214	18	9	28%	3%	36	-1.2
✕Brett Carroll 2013 · MLB	30	42→46	47→55	47→50	43	212/274/346	134	270	15	11	27%	6%	74	-0.5	204/269/335	131	275	16	10	30%	7%	70	-0.8	176/254/321	145	220	21	11	30%	8%	59	-0.9
✕Jamie Romak 2017 · MLB	31	40→48	51→55	49→45	41	211/269/376	165	288	19	7	33%	7%	80	-0.2	239/293/434	195	314	24	11	31%	6%	102	+1.5	239/279/528	288	282	41	10	32%	4%	115	+0.4
✕Michael A. Taylor 2022 · MLB	31	47→54	48→55	47→60	42	236/290/371	135	308	16	15	28%	6%	86	+0.3	235/293/378	143	308	18	14	29%	7%	89	+0.5	224/284/367	143	297	19	15	30%	7%	84	+0.1
✕Brandon Snyder 2019 · MLB	32	39→49	52→55	46→45	38	209/266/371	163	288	21	6	35%	6%	78	-0.3	192/250/356	164	290	22	5	40%	5%	69	-0.9	162/223/323	161	237	24	2	42%	5%	49	-1.4
✕Kyle Garlick 2024 · MLB	32	39→49	52→60	46→40	40	206/273/366	160	290	21	5	36%	7%	80	-0.2	190/256/324	134	269	16	4	34%	7%	63	-1.3	164/231/286	122	226	16	1	34%	7%	44	-2.9
●Reynaldo Rodriguez 2019 · AAA	33	43→45	44→55	50	45	213/275/324	111	279	12	15	28%	8%	70	-0.9	267/311/489	222	299	31	13	22%	5%	122	+2.9	288/324/555	267	305	41	11	20%	4%	144	+2.0
✕Chris Dominguez 2018 · MLB	31	44→50	47→50	50	32	222/257/357	135	300	16	13	32%	3%	70	-0.8	218/261/346	128	300	14	13	31%	4%	70	-0.9	194/235/311	117	267	12	12	31%	3%	51	-1.1
✕Ryan LaMarre 2022 · MLB	33	47→52	46→45	53→60	42	228/295/358	130	318	13	23	31%	7%	86	+0.3	220/297/342	122	308	12	21	31%	7%	82	+0.0	200/284/303	103	284	11	24	31%	7%	66	-0.3
✕D.J. Peterson 2022 · AAA	30	43→45	48→55	50→40	41	217/276/355	138	293	16	11	31%	6%	78	-0.3	208/278/364	156	283	19	7	32%	7%	81	-0.1	175/251/330	155	229	21	1	33%	7%	61	-0.9
✕Mike Wilson 2015 · AAA	32	42→52	49→55	41→50	41	215/273/362	147	294	18	7	33%	7%	78	-0.3	222/287/362	140	310	16	10	32%	7%	84	+0.1	184/266/293	109	258	15	5	33%	6%	59	-0.3
✕Brad Snyder 2013 · MLB	31	46→51	51→55	49→50	38	231/276/391	159	321	18	15	33%	6%	86	+0.3	228/278/379	151	333	17	10	35%	6%	83	+0.1	225/276/374	149	323	18	6	35%	7%	80	-0.1
✕Nick Gorneault 2010 · AAA	31	39→48	46→55	45→50	41	200/253/325	125	262	14	11	29%	6%	62	-1.4	206/257/335	129	273	14	10	29%	6%	65	-1.2	192/243/325	133	246	15	7	28%	6%	55	-1.2

Bobby Dalbec

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps