Brandon Snyder

Pos1B

B/TR/R

Born1986-11-23

Age (2027)40

No MLB projection yet. Career stats below are historical.

Overview

AAALAST SEASON 2021

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2018	31	AAATB	438	.253/.333/.465	18	2	60	—	.187/.247/.349
2019	32	AAACOL	458	.257/.317/.537	31	3	51	—	.169/.220/.345
2021	34	AAAWSH	238	.207/.321/.419	12	0	45	—	.151/.241/.288

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2005	18	ROK	Bluefield Orioles	—	180	144	39	8	0	8	28	36	1	7	2	271	393	493	886	222	292	20	16	378	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
2006	19	A	Delmarva Shorebirds	—	159	144	28	12	0	3	9	55	0	0	0	194	242	340	582	146	281	35	6	250	17	—	—	—	—	—	—
2007	20	A	Delmarva Shorebirds	—	501	448	127	23	3	11	44	107	6	0	2	283	355	422	777	138	349	21	9	347	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2008	21	A+	Frederick Keys	—	477	436	137	33	2	13	29	82	4	3	2	314	362	489	851	174	356	17	6	370	95	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	22	AAA	Norfolk Tides	—	297	262	65	18	2	2	24	64	5	3	1	248	323	355	678	107	312	22	8	302	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	22	AA	Bowie Baysox	—	233	201	69	19	1	10	27	45	2	0	1	343	426	597	1.023	254	396	19	12	440	152	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	23	MLB	Baltimore Orioles	—	20	20	6	2	0	0	0	3	0	0	1	300	300	400	700	100	353	15	0	309	96	-0	-0	+1	-7	+0	-0.7
2010	23	AAA	Norfolk Tides	—	376	339	87	22	1	9	28	101	7	4	1	257	326	407	733	150	338	27	7	327	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	24	MLB	Baltimore Orioles	—	17	13	3	1	0	0	3	4	1	0	0	231	412	308	719	77	333	24	18	348	122	+0	+0	-1	-9	+0	-0.9
2011	24	AAA	Norfolk Tides	—	494	448	117	21	1	14	32	91	5	1	2	261	318	406	724	145	293	18	6	318	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	25	MLB	Texas Rangers	—	69	65	18	2	0	3	3	26	0	0	0	277	309	446	755	169	417	38	4	329	102	+0	+0	-0	-3	+1	-0.2
2012	25	AAA	Round Rock Express	—	92	87	22	7	0	2	4	30	0	0	0	253	286	402	688	149	364	33	4	301	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	26	MLB	Boston Red Sox	—	52	50	9	3	0	2	0	16	2	0	0	180	212	360	572	180	219	31	0	252	52	-3	+0	+0	+1	+1	-0.0
2013	26	AAA	Pawtucket Red Sox	—	277	249	65	16	1	10	20	69	7	3	1	261	333	454	787	193	322	25	7	348	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	27	AAA	Pawtucket Red Sox	—	141	126	26	6	0	8	11	50	3	1	0	206	286	444	730	238	261	35	8	320	37	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	28	AA	Bowie Baysox	—	376	334	93	26	2	11	37	105	4	1	0	278	357	467	824	189	374	28	10	365	64	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	29	MLB	Atlanta Braves	—	47	46	11	5	1	4	1	16	0	0	0	239	255	652	907	413	269	34	2	382	150	+3	+0	-0	+1	+1	0.5
2016	29	AAA	Gwinnett Braves	—	160	147	48	8	0	3	8	35	1	6	0	327	365	442	808	116	402	22	5	352	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	30	AAA	Syracuse Chiefs	—	486	418	110	24	1	23	52	127	11	4	4	263	360	490	850	227	319	26	11	372	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	31	AAA	Durham Bulls	—	438	387	98	24	2	18	42	146	4	2	0	253	333	465	798	212	351	33	10	348	60	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	32	AAA	Fresno Grizzlies	—	458	417	107	24	0	31	26	153	11	3	1	257	317	537	854	281	321	33	6	368	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	34	AAA	Rochester Red Wings	—	238	203	42	7	0	12	26	71	8	0	0	207	321	419	739	212	248	30	11	331	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	205	194	47	13	1	9	7	65	3	0	1	242	279	459	738	216	317	32	3	321	104	+1	-0	-0	-17	+4	-1.3
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2005	18	ROK MLE	Bluefield Orioles	—	180	155	33	6	0	7	17	51	1	7	2	213	295	387	682	174	238	28	9	296	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
2006	19	A MLE	Delmarva Shorebirds	—	159	147	22	9	0	2	6	74	0	0	0	150	183	252	435	102	255	47	4	193	17	—	—	—	—	—	—
2007	20	A MLE	Delmarva Shorebirds	—	501	463	109	18	3	9	29	143	6	0	2	235	289	346	635	110	315	29	6	275	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2008	21	A+ MLE	Frederick Keys	—	477	447	121	27	2	11	18	116	4	3	2	271	305	414	719	143	325	24	4	308	95	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	22	AAA MLE	Norfolk Tides	—	297	269	62	16	2	2	17	77	5	3	1	230	289	327	616	97	294	26	6	269	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	22	AA MLE	Bowie Baysox	—	233	211	68	18	1	8	17	55	2	0	1	322	378	531	909	209	387	24	7	393	152	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	23	MLB MLE	Baltimore Orioles	—	20	20	6	2	0	0	0	3	0	0	1	300	300	400	700	100	353	15	0	310	96	-0	-0	+1	-7	+0	-0.7
2010	23	AAA MLE	Norfolk Tides	—	376	348	75	19	1	6	19	122	7	4	1	216	270	328	598	112	312	32	5	265	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	24	MLB MLE	Baltimore Orioles	—	17	13	3	1	0	0	3	4	1	0	0	231	412	308	719	77	333	24	18	349	122	+0	+0	-1	-9	+0	-0.9
2011	24	AAA MLE	Norfolk Tides	—	494	456	102	17	1	12	24	114	5	1	2	224	270	344	614	121	256	23	5	264	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	25	MLB MLE	Texas Rangers	—	69	65	18	2	0	3	3	26	0	0	0	277	309	446	755	169	417	38	4	319	102	+0	+0	-0	-3	+1	-0.2
2012	25	AAA MLE	Round Rock Express	—	92	88	19	6	0	2	3	37	0	0	0	216	242	352	594	136	321	40	3	235	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	26	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	—	52	50	9	3	0	2	0	16	2	0	0	180	212	360	572	180	219	31	0	245	52	-3	+0	+0	+1	+1	-0.0
2013	26	AAA MLE	Pawtucket Red Sox	—	277	257	58	12	1	8	12	81	7	3	1	226	279	374	653	148	293	29	4	283	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	27	AAA MLE	Pawtucket Red Sox	—	141	130	20	5	0	5	7	61	3	1	0	154	214	308	522	154	220	43	5	223	37	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	28	AA MLE	Bowie Baysox	—	376	347	73	20	1	7	24	130	4	1	0	210	269	334	604	124	310	35	6	263	64	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	29	MLB MLE	Atlanta Braves	—	47	46	11	5	1	4	1	16	0	0	0	239	255	652	907	413	269	34	2	390	150	+3	+0	-0	+1	+1	0.5
2016	29	AAA MLE	Gwinnett Braves	—	160	150	41	6	0	2	5	40	1	6	0	273	301	353	655	80	342	25	3	290	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	30	AAA MLE	Syracuse Chiefs	—	486	439	91	17	1	19	31	152	11	4	4	207	277	380	657	173	258	31	6	287	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	31	AAA MLE	Durham Bulls	—	438	401	75	16	2	15	28	170	4	2	0	187	247	349	596	162	266	39	6	257	60	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	32	AAA MLE	Fresno Grizzlies	—	458	426	72	15	0	20	17	207	11	3	1	169	220	345	565	176	251	45	4	244	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	34	AAA MLE	Rochester Red Wings	—	238	212	32	5	0	8	17	87	8	0	0	151	241	288	528	137	203	37	7	235	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2005	18	ROK MLE	Bluefield Orioles	—	180	155	33	6	0	7	17	51	1	7	2	213	295	387	682	174	252	28	9	296	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
2005	18	ROK RAW	Bluefield Orioles	—	180	144	39	8	0	8	28	36	1	7	2	271	393	493	886	222	292	20	16	378	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
2006	19	A MLE	Delmarva Shorebirds	—	159	147	22	9	0	2	6	74	0	0	0	150	183	252	435	102	270	47	4	193	17	—	—	—	—	—	—
2006	19	A RAW	Delmarva Shorebirds	—	159	144	28	12	0	3	9	55	0	0	0	194	242	340	582	146	281	35	6	250	17	—	—	—	—	—	—
2007	20	A MLE	Delmarva Shorebirds	—	501	463	109	18	3	9	29	143	6	0	2	235	289	346	635	110	319	29	6	275	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2007	20	A RAW	Delmarva Shorebirds	—	501	448	127	23	3	11	44	107	6	0	2	283	355	422	777	138	349	21	9	347	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2008	21	A+ MLE	Frederick Keys	—	477	447	121	27	2	11	18	116	4	3	2	271	305	414	719	143	336	24	4	308	95	—	—	—	—	—	—
2008	21	A+ RAW	Frederick Keys	—	477	436	137	33	2	13	29	82	4	3	2	314	362	489	851	174	356	17	6	370	95	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	22	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	530	481	129	33	3	10	33	132	7	3	2	268	324	412	736	143	342	25	6	324	105	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	22	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	530	463	134	37	3	12	51	109	7	3	2	289	369	460	829	171	348	21	10	363	105	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	23	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	396	368	81	21	1	6	19	125	7	4	2	220	272	332	603	111	314	32	5	267	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	23	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	396	359	93	24	1	9	28	104	7	4	2	259	325	407	732	148	339	26	7	326	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	24	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	511	469	105	18	1	12	27	118	6	1	2	224	275	343	618	119	267	23	5	267	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	24	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	511	461	120	22	1	14	35	95	6	1	2	260	321	403	724	143	294	19	7	319	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	25	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	161	153	36	7	0	5	6	63	0	0	0	235	264	379	643	144	365	39	4	271	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	25	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	161	152	40	9	0	5	7	56	0	0	0	263	296	421	717	158	385	35	4	313	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	26	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	329	307	67	15	1	10	12	97	9	3	1	218	268	371	640	153	284	29	4	277	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	26	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	329	299	74	19	1	12	20	85	9	3	1	247	314	438	752	191	305	26	6	333	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	27	AAA MLE	Pawtucket Red Sox	—	141	130	20	5	0	5	7	61	3	1	0	154	214	308	522	154	231	43	5	223	37	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	27	AAA RAW	Pawtucket Red Sox	—	141	126	26	6	0	8	11	50	3	1	0	206	286	444	730	238	261	35	8	320	37	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	28	AA MLE	Bowie Baysox	—	376	347	73	20	1	7	24	130	4	1	0	210	269	334	604	124	313	35	6	263	64	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	28	AA RAW	Bowie Baysox	—	376	334	93	26	2	11	37	105	4	1	0	278	357	467	824	189	374	28	10	365	64	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	29	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	207	196	53	11	1	7	6	56	1	6	0	270	296	444	739	173	338	27	3	313	98	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	29	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	207	193	59	13	1	7	9	51	1	6	0	306	340	492	832	187	377	25	4	359	98	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	30	AAA MLE	Syracuse Chiefs	—	486	439	91	17	1	19	31	152	11	4	4	207	277	380	657	173	264	31	6	287	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	30	AAA RAW	Syracuse Chiefs	—	486	418	110	24	1	23	52	127	11	4	4	263	360	490	850	227	319	26	11	372	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	31	AAA MLE	Durham Bulls	—	438	401	75	16	2	15	28	170	4	2	0	187	247	349	596	162	271	39	6	257	60	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	31	AAA RAW	Durham Bulls	—	438	387	98	24	2	18	42	146	4	2	0	253	333	465	798	212	351	33	10	348	60	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	32	AAA MLE	Fresno Grizzlies	—	458	426	72	15	0	20	17	207	11	3	1	169	220	345	565	176	256	45	4	244	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	32	AAA RAW	Fresno Grizzlies	—	458	417	107	24	0	31	26	153	11	3	1	257	317	537	854	281	321	33	6	368	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	34	AAA MLE	Rochester Red Wings	—	238	212	32	5	0	8	17	87	8	0	0	151	241	288	528	137	203	37	7	235	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	34	AAA RAW	Rochester Red Wings	—	238	203	42	7	0	12	26	71	8	0	0	207	321	419	739	212	248	30	11	331	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2005	18	ROK MLE	Bluefield Orioles	—	180	160	33	6	0	7	17	51	1	7	2	206	295	375	670	169	238	28	9	296	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
2006	19	A MLE	Delmarva Shorebirds	—	159	152	22	9	0	2	6	74	0	0	0	145	183	243	426	99	255	47	4	193	17	—	—	—	—	—	—
2007	20	A MLE	Delmarva Shorebirds	—	501	461	109	18	3	9	29	143	6	0	2	236	289	347	636	111	315	29	6	275	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2008	21	A+ MLE	Frederick Keys	—	477	452	121	27	2	11	18	116	4	3	2	268	305	409	714	142	325	24	4	308	95	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	22	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	530	485	129	33	3	10	33	132	7	3	2	266	324	408	733	142	335	25	6	324	105	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	23	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	396	367	81	21	1	6	19	125	7	4	2	221	272	332	604	112	314	32	5	267	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	24	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	511	473	105	18	1	12	27	118	6	1	2	222	275	340	615	118	259	23	5	267	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	25	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	161	154	36	7	0	5	6	63	0	0	0	234	264	377	641	143	362	39	4	271	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	26	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	329	305	67	15	1	10	12	97	9	3	1	220	268	374	642	154	281	29	4	277	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	27	AAA MLE	Pawtucket Red Sox	—	141	130	20	5	0	5	7	61	3	1	0	154	214	308	522	154	220	43	5	223	37	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	28	AA MLE	Bowie Baysox	—	376	345	73	20	1	7	24	130	4	1	0	212	269	336	606	125	310	35	6	263	64	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	29	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	207	198	53	11	1	7	6	56	1	6	0	268	296	439	735	172	325	27	3	313	98	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	30	AAA MLE	Syracuse Chiefs	—	486	441	91	17	1	19	31	152	11	4	4	206	277	379	655	172	258	31	6	287	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	31	AAA MLE	Durham Bulls	—	438	403	75	16	2	15	28	170	4	2	0	186	247	347	595	161	266	39	6	257	60	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	32	AAA MLE	Fresno Grizzlies	—	458	427	72	15	0	20	17	207	11	3	1	169	220	344	565	176	251	45	4	244	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	34	AAA MLE	Rochester Red Wings	—	238	211	32	5	0	8	17	87	8	0	0	152	241	289	530	137	203	37	7	235	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	205	194	47	13	1	9	7	65	3	0	1	242	279	459	738	216	317	32	3	321	72	+1	-0	-0	-17	+4	-1.3
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	615	149	41	3	29	22	206	10	0	3	242	280	460	740	218	316	32	3	321	72	+3	-1	-1	-54	+14	-4.1
Career	—	MLE		—	5588	5141	1119	243	16	153	297	1782	82	38	18	218	271	360	632	143	296	32	5	274	72	+1	-0	-0	-17	+4	-1.3
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	598	130	28	2	18	35	207	10	4	2	217	273	361	634	144	295	32	5	274	72	+3	-1	-1	-54	+14	-4.1

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2021 AAARochester Red Wings · 238 PAwOBA .324 → .235 (−89)K% 29.8% → 36.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	29.83%	÷0.979	×1.200	—	—	36.56%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	10.92%	÷1.014	×0.690	—	×0.940	6.99%
HBP% /PA	3.36%	—	×0.940	—	×0.940	2.97%
Singles /BIP	17.42%	÷0.994	×0.930	×0.987	×0.940	15.12%
Doubles /BIP	5.30%	÷1.005	×0.830	×0.987	×0.940	4.06%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.150	×0.920	×0.987	×0.940	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	9.09%	÷0.968	×0.700	—	×0.940	6.18%

Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 94, 1B 99, 2B 101, 3B 130, K 96, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 35 vs a level average of 27.2 → −6.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (7.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.987.

Result: wOBA .324 → .235; ISO .212 → .142; BABIP .248 → .203. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AAAFresno Grizzlies · 458 PAwOBA .360 → .244 (−116)K% 33.4% → 45.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	33.41%	÷0.953	×1.290	—	—	45.22%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	5.46%	÷0.990	×0.710	—	×0.942	3.69%
HBP% /PA	2.40%	—	×0.980	—	×0.942	2.22%
Singles /BIP	19.70%	÷0.959	×0.900	×0.950	×0.942	16.54%
Doubles /BIP	9.09%	÷0.976	×0.810	×0.950	×0.942	6.75%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.140	×0.810	×0.950	×0.942	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	11.74%	÷0.962	×0.780	—	×0.942	8.97%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 92, 1B 92, 2B 95, 3B 128, K 91, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 33 vs a level average of 27.2 → −5.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (5.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .360 → .244; ISO .281 → .181; BABIP .321 → .251. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 AAADurham Bulls · 438 PAwOBA .343 → .257 (−86)K% 33.3% → 38.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	33.33%	÷1.032	×1.200	—	—	38.75%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	9.59%	÷0.986	×0.690	—	×0.952	6.39%
HBP% /PA	0.91%	—	×0.940	—	×0.952	0.82%
Singles /BIP	22.41%	÷1.052	×0.930	×0.950	×0.952	17.92%
Doubles /BIP	9.96%	÷1.091	×0.830	×0.950	×0.952	6.85%
Triples /BIP	0.83%	÷0.993	×0.970	×0.950	×0.952	0.73%
Home runs /BIP	7.47%	÷0.970	×0.840	—	×0.952	6.16%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 94, 1B 110, 2B 118, 3B 99, K 106, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 32 vs a level average of 27.2 → −4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .343 → .257; ISO .212 → .164; BABIP .351 → .266. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 AAASyracuse Chiefs · 486 PAwOBA .363 → .287 (−76)K% 26.1% → 31.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	26.13%	÷1.005	×1.200	—	—	31.20%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	9.88%	÷1.033	×0.690	—	×0.962	6.35%
HBP% /PA	2.26%	—	×0.940	—	×0.962	2.05%
Singles /BIP	21.31%	÷0.997	×0.930	×0.964	×0.962	18.42%
Doubles /BIP	8.25%	÷1.081	×0.830	×0.964	×0.962	5.87%
Triples /BIP	0.34%	÷1.150	×0.970	×0.964	×0.962	0.27%
Home runs /BIP	7.90%	÷0.980	×0.840	—	×0.962	6.52%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 96, 1B 99, 2B 116, 3B 130, K 101, BB 107 — applied at half strength. Age: age 31 vs a level average of 27.2 → −3.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.964.

Result: wOBA .363 → .287; ISO .227 → .182; BABIP .319 → .258. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2016 AAAGwinnett Braves · 160 PAwOBA .349 → .290 (−59)K% 21.9% → 25.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	21.88%	÷1.046	×1.200	—	—	25.09%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	5.00%	÷1.022	×0.690	—	×0.972	3.28%
HBP% /PA	0.62%	—	×0.940	—	×0.972	0.57%
Singles /BIP	33.04%	÷1.017	×0.930	×0.980	×0.972	28.78%
Doubles /BIP	7.14%	÷0.991	×0.830	×0.980	×0.972	5.70%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.150	×0.970	×0.980	×0.972	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	2.68%	÷1.132	×0.840	—	×0.972	1.93%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 126, 1B 103, 2B 98, 3B 130, K 109, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 30 vs a level average of 27.2 → −2.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.980.

Result: wOBA .349 → .290; ISO .116 → .089; BABIP .402 → .342. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2015 AABowie Baysox · 376 PAwOBA .356 → .263 (−93)K% 27.9% → 34.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	27.93%	÷0.989	×1.220	—	—	34.46%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	9.84%	÷1.014	×0.700	—	×0.958	6.51%
HBP% /PA	1.06%	—	×0.850	—	×0.958	0.87%
Singles /BIP	23.58%	÷1.023	×0.970	×0.958	×0.958	20.54%
Doubles /BIP	11.35%	÷0.999	×0.860	×0.958	×0.958	8.98%
Triples /BIP	0.87%	÷1.123	×0.950	×0.958	×0.958	0.68%
Home runs /BIP	4.80%	÷1.197	×0.780	—	×0.958	3.00%

Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 139, 1B 105, 2B 100, 3B 125, K 98, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 24.8 → −4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.958.

Result: wOBA .356 → .263; ISO .189 → .127; BABIP .374 → .310. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2014 AAAPawtucket Red Sox · 141 PAwOBA .313 → .223 (−90)K% 35.5% → 43.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	35.46%	÷0.980	×1.200	—	—	43.40%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	7.80%	÷1.084	×0.690	—	×0.992	4.93%
HBP% /PA	2.13%	—	×0.940	—	×0.992	1.98%
Singles /BIP	15.79%	÷0.976	×0.930	×0.950	×0.992	14.17%
Doubles /BIP	7.89%	÷0.937	×0.830	×0.950	×0.992	6.59%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.104	×0.970	×0.950	×0.992	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	10.53%	÷1.240	×0.840	—	×0.992	7.07%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 148, 1B 95, 2B 87, 3B 121, K 96, BB 117 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .313 → .223; ISO .238 → .155; BABIP .261 → .220. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2013 AAAPawtucket Red Sox · 277 PAwOBA .337 → .283 (−54)K% 24.9% → 29.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	24.91%	÷1.018	×1.200	—	—	29.38%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	6.50%	÷1.069	×0.690	—	×1.003	4.21%
HBP% /PA	2.53%	—	×0.940	—	×1.003	2.38%
Singles /BIP	21.11%	÷0.964	×0.930	×1.014	×1.003	20.71%
Doubles /BIP	8.89%	÷1.083	×0.830	×1.014	×1.003	6.93%
Triples /BIP	0.56%	÷0.957	×0.970	×1.014	×1.003	0.57%
Home runs /BIP	5.56%	÷1.068	×0.840	—	×1.003	4.38%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 114, 1B 93, 2B 117, 3B 91, K 104, BB 114 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.014.

Result: wOBA .337 → .283; ISO .193 → .151; BABIP .322 → .293. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).