Nick Podkul
1B Birmingham Barons| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 26 | AAA/AAPHI | 231 | .284/.409/.584 | 14 | 0 | 113 | — | .231/.335/.446 |
| 2024 | 27 | AAA/AA2 orgs | 315 | .239/.362/.413 | 11 | 1 | 68 | — | .193/.283/.318 |
| 2025 | 28 | AACWS | 92 | .158/.304/.171 | 0 | 0 | 12 | — | .136/.239/.148 |
| 2027PROJMLE | 30 | MLBCWS | 2 | .202/.286/.337 | 0 | 0 | 76 | -0.0 | |
| 2028PROJ23% MLB | 31 | MLBCWS | 22 | .200/.283/.330 | 1 | 0 | 73 | -0.1 |
Tools · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2019 | 22 | A+ | Dunedin Blue Jays | — | 132 | 110 | 25 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 22 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 227 | 336 | 300 | 636 | 73 | 270 | 17 | 13 | 290 | 43 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 22 | A | Lansing Lugnuts | — | 241 | 201 | 51 | 13 | 2 | 2 | 33 | 41 | 5 | 12 | 1 | 254 | 372 | 368 | 741 | 114 | 306 | 17 | 14 | 338 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 24 | AA | New Hampshire Fisher Cats | — | 209 | 181 | 37 | 9 | 1 | 7 | 23 | 51 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 204 | 308 | 381 | 689 | 177 | 242 | 24 | 11 | 310 | 50 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 25 | AAA | Buffalo Bisons | — | 215 | 175 | 37 | 6 | 0 | 5 | 33 | 61 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 211 | 355 | 331 | 687 | 120 | 294 | 28 | 15 | 321 | 67 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 26 | AAA | Lehigh Valley IronPigs | — | 34 | 25 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 280 | 471 | 560 | 1.031 | 280 | 278 | 15 | 15 | 456 | 134 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 26 | AA | Reading Fightin Phils | — | 197 | 165 | 47 | 8 | 3 | 12 | 27 | 41 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 285 | 398 | 588 | 986 | 303 | 310 | 21 | 14 | 424 | 109 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 27 | AAA | Lehigh Valley IronPigs | — | 220 | 182 | 42 | 7 | 0 | 9 | 34 | 70 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 231 | 364 | 418 | 781 | 187 | 320 | 32 | 15 | 354 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 27 | AA | Birmingham Barons | — | 95 | 82 | 21 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 12 | 26 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 256 | 358 | 402 | 760 | 146 | 352 | 27 | 13 | 344 | 62 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 28 | AA | Birmingham Barons | — | 92 | 76 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 32 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 158 | 304 | 171 | 475 | 13 | 273 | 35 | 15 | 244 | 12 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2019 | 22 | A+ MLE | Dunedin Blue Jays | — | 132 | 115 | 22 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 32 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 191 | 273 | 261 | 534 | 70 | 231 | 24 | 9 | 232 | 43 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 22 | A MLE | Lansing Lugnuts | — | 241 | 212 | 43 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 22 | 59 | 5 | 12 | 1 | 203 | 293 | 283 | 576 | 80 | 266 | 24 | 9 | 262 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 24 | AA MLE | New Hampshire Fisher Cats | — | 209 | 187 | 31 | 7 | 1 | 6 | 17 | 63 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 166 | 250 | 310 | 560 | 144 | 207 | 30 | 8 | 242 | 50 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 25 | AAA MLE | Buffalo Bisons | — | 215 | 185 | 35 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 23 | 72 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 189 | 299 | 281 | 580 | 92 | 286 | 33 | 11 | 267 | 67 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 26 | AAA MLE | Lehigh Valley IronPigs | — | 34 | 26 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 231 | 412 | 385 | 796 | 154 | 241 | 18 | 12 | 366 | 134 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 26 | AA MLE | Reading Fightin Phils | — | 197 | 173 | 40 | 6 | 3 | 9 | 19 | 50 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 231 | 321 | 457 | 778 | 225 | 264 | 25 | 10 | 330 | 109 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 27 | AAA MLE | Lehigh Valley IronPigs | — | 220 | 193 | 36 | 6 | 0 | 6 | 23 | 82 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 187 | 286 | 311 | 597 | 124 | 285 | 37 | 10 | 271 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 27 | AA MLE | Birmingham Barons | — | 95 | 87 | 18 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 32 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 207 | 274 | 333 | 607 | 126 | 302 | 34 | 7 | 260 | 62 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 28 | AA MLE | Birmingham Barons | — | 92 | 81 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 38 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 136 | 239 | 148 | 387 | 12 | 247 | 41 | 10 | 186 | 12 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 22 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 373 | 327 | 64 | 13 | 2 | 2 | 34 | 91 | 6 | 17 | 3 | 196 | 283 | 266 | 549 | 70 | 261 | 24 | 9 | 251 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 22 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 373 | 311 | 76 | 16 | 3 | 3 | 50 | 63 | 6 | 17 | 3 | 244 | 360 | 344 | 704 | 100 | 293 | 17 | 13 | 321 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 24 | AA MLE | New Hampshire Fisher Cats | — | 209 | 187 | 31 | 7 | 1 | 6 | 17 | 63 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 166 | 250 | 310 | 560 | 144 | 210 | 30 | 8 | 242 | 50 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 24 | AA RAW | New Hampshire Fisher Cats | — | 209 | 181 | 37 | 9 | 1 | 7 | 23 | 51 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 204 | 308 | 381 | 689 | 177 | 242 | 24 | 11 | 310 | 50 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 25 | AAA MLE | Buffalo Bisons | — | 215 | 185 | 35 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 23 | 72 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 189 | 299 | 281 | 580 | 92 | 284 | 33 | 11 | 267 | 67 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 25 | AAA RAW | Buffalo Bisons | — | 215 | 175 | 37 | 6 | 0 | 5 | 33 | 61 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 211 | 355 | 331 | 687 | 120 | 294 | 28 | 15 | 321 | 67 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 26 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 231 | 199 | 45 | 7 | 3 | 10 | 23 | 56 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 226 | 330 | 442 | 773 | 216 | 261 | 24 | 10 | 335 | 113 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 26 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 231 | 190 | 54 | 9 | 3 | 14 | 32 | 46 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 284 | 409 | 584 | 993 | 300 | 305 | 20 | 14 | 429 | 113 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 27 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 315 | 279 | 54 | 9 | 1 | 8 | 31 | 114 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 194 | 286 | 319 | 605 | 125 | 293 | 36 | 10 | 268 | 67 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 27 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 315 | 264 | 63 | 11 | 1 | 11 | 46 | 96 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 239 | 362 | 413 | 775 | 174 | 331 | 30 | 15 | 351 | 67 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 28 | AA MLE | Birmingham Barons | — | 92 | 81 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 38 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 136 | 239 | 148 | 387 | 12 | 256 | 41 | 10 | 186 | 12 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 28 | AA RAW | Birmingham Barons | — | 92 | 76 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 32 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 158 | 304 | 171 | 475 | 13 | 273 | 35 | 15 | 244 | 12 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 22 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 373 | 330 | 64 | 13 | 2 | 2 | 34 | 91 | 6 | 17 | 3 | 194 | 283 | 264 | 547 | 70 | 254 | 24 | 9 | 251 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 24 | AA MLE | New Hampshire Fisher Cats | — | 209 | 186 | 31 | 7 | 1 | 6 | 17 | 63 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 167 | 250 | 312 | 562 | 145 | 207 | 30 | 8 | 242 | 50 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 25 | AAA MLE | Buffalo Bisons | — | 215 | 184 | 35 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 23 | 72 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 190 | 299 | 283 | 582 | 92 | 286 | 33 | 11 | 267 | 67 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 26 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 231 | 198 | 45 | 7 | 3 | 10 | 23 | 56 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 227 | 330 | 444 | 775 | 217 | 261 | 24 | 10 | 335 | 113 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 27 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 315 | 276 | 54 | 9 | 1 | 8 | 31 | 114 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 196 | 286 | 322 | 608 | 127 | 290 | 36 | 10 | 268 | 67 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 28 | AA MLE | Birmingham Barons | — | 92 | 81 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 38 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 136 | 239 | 148 | 387 | 12 | 247 | 41 | 10 | 186 | 12 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 27 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 315 | 276 | 54 | 9 | 1 | 8 | 31 | 114 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 196 | 286 | 322 | 608 | 127 | 290 | 36 | 10 | 268 | 67 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 28 | AA MLE | Birmingham Barons | — | 92 | 81 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 38 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 136 | 239 | 148 | 387 | 12 | 247 | 41 | 10 | 186 | 12 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 30 | MLB MLE | CWS | 2% | 200 | 177 | 35 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 18 | 59 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 201 | 286 | 334 | 620 | 133 | 265 | 30 | 9 | 281 | 76 | -6 | +0 | +0 | -4 | +4 | -0.2 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 30 | MLB CTX | CWS | 2% | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 202 | 286 | 337 | 624 | 135 | 266 | 50 | 0 | 282 | 76 | -0 | +0 | +0 | -0 | +0 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 31 | MLB MLE | CWS | 23% | 97 | 87 | 16 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 28 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 199 | 282 | 327 | 609 | 128 | 263 | 29 | 9 | 276 | 73 | -3 | +0 | -3 | -2 | +2 | -0.5 |
| 2028 | 31 | MLB CTX | CWS | 23% | 22 | 20 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 200 | 283 | 330 | 613 | 130 | 263 | 27 | 9 | 278 | 73 | -1 | +0 | -1 | -0 | +0 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 22 | 20 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 250 | 318 | 450 | 768 | 200 | 308 | 27 | 9 | 278 | 67 | -1 | +0 | -1 | -0 | +0 | -0.1 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 591 | 149 | 30 | 0 | 30 | 59 | 177 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 252 | 320 | 455 | 775 | 203 | 310 | 27 | 9 | 278 | 67 | -21 | +0 | -19 | -12 | +14 | -3.8 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 1637 | 1438 | 274 | 48 | 7 | 35 | 156 | 493 | 33 | 28 | 6 | 191 | 285 | 307 | 591 | 116 | 261 | 30 | 10 | 267 | 67 | -6 | +1 | -3 | -4 | +4 | -0.8 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 571 | 109 | 19 | 3 | 14 | 62 | 196 | 13 | 11 | 2 | 191 | 285 | 308 | 593 | 117 | 261 | 30 | 10 | 267 | 67 | -20 | +2 | -9 | -12 | +14 | -2.5 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2025 AABirmingham Barons · 92 PAwOBA .239 → .186 (−54)K% 34.8% → 41.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 34.78% | ÷1.020 | ×1.220 | — | — | 41.62% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 15.22% | ÷1.020 | ×0.680 | — | ×0.968 | 9.82% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.17% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×0.968 | 1.77% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.00% | ÷0.954 | ×0.920 | ×0.974 | ×0.968 | 22.74% |
| Doubles /BIP | 2.27% | ÷0.984 | ×0.910 | ×0.974 | ×0.968 | 1.98% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.880 | ×0.974 | ×0.968 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.784 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.968 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 57, 1B 91, 2B 97, 3B 130, K 104, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 24.8 → −3.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.974.
Result: wOBA .239 → .186; ISO .013 → .011; BABIP .273 → .247. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AAALehigh Valley IronPigs · 220 PAwOBA .345 → .271 (−74)K% 31.8% → 37.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 31.82% | ÷1.022 | ×1.200 | — | — | 37.35% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 15.45% | ÷1.021 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.003 | 10.47% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.82% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.003 | 1.71% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.21% | ÷0.985 | ×0.930 | ×0.980 | ×1.003 | 21.54% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.25% | ÷0.960 | ×0.830 | ×0.980 | ×1.003 | 5.31% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.970 | ×0.980 | ×1.003 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 8.04% | ÷0.989 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.003 | 5.70% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 98, 1B 97, 2B 92, 3B 130, K 104, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.980.
Result: wOBA .345 → .271; ISO .187 → .137; BABIP .320 → .285. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AABirmingham Barons · 95 PAwOBA .336 → .260 (−75)K% 27.4% → 34.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 27.37% | ÷0.980 | ×1.220 | — | — | 34.08% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.63% | ÷1.081 | ×0.680 | — | ×0.978 | 7.77% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.05% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×0.978 | 0.86% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.00% | ÷0.979 | ×0.920 | ×0.950 | ×0.978 | 21.83% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.14% | ÷0.990 | ×0.910 | ×0.950 | ×0.978 | 6.10% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.79% | ÷1.044 | ×0.880 | ×0.950 | ×0.978 | 1.40% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.57% | ÷0.935 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.978 | 2.99% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 87, 1B 96, 2B 98, 3B 109, K 96, BB 116 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 24.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .336 → .260; ISO .146 → .119; BABIP .352 → .302. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AAReading Fightin Phils · 197 PAwOBA .415 → .330 (−85)K% 20.8% → 25.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.81% | ÷1.000 | ×1.220 | — | — | 25.38% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.71% | ÷0.975 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.988 | 9.72% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.03% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.988 | 1.71% |
| Singles /BIP | 19.35% | ÷1.017 | ×0.970 | ×0.950 | ×0.988 | 17.33% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.45% | ÷0.999 | ×0.860 | ×0.950 | ×0.988 | 5.21% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.42% | ÷1.005 | ×0.950 | ×0.950 | ×0.988 | 2.15% |
| Home runs /BIP | 9.68% | ÷1.050 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.988 | 7.10% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 110, 1B 103, 2B 100, 3B 101, K 100, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 24.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .415 → .330; ISO .303 → .232; BABIP .310 → .264. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AAALehigh Valley IronPigs · 34 PAwOBA .444 → .366 (−79)K% 14.7% → 17.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 14.71% | ÷0.996 | ×1.200 | — | — | 17.72% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 14.71% | ÷0.982 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.018 | 10.51% |
| HBP% /PA | 11.76% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.018 | 11.26% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.00% | ÷1.016 | ×0.930 | — | ×1.018 | 18.63% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.00% | ÷1.117 | ×0.830 | — | ×1.018 | 3.78% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.105 | ×0.970 | — | ×1.018 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 10.00% | ÷1.028 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.018 | 6.93% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 106, 1B 103, 2B 123, 3B 121, K 99, BB 96 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .444 → .366; ISO .280 → .202; BABIP .278 → .241. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 AAABuffalo Bisons · 215 PAwOBA .314 → .267 (−47)K% 28.4% → 33.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 28.37% | ÷1.018 | ×1.200 | — | — | 33.45% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 15.35% | ÷1.032 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.033 | 10.60% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.79% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.033 | 2.71% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.81% | ÷0.960 | ×0.930 | ×1.010 | ×1.033 | 23.06% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.26% | ÷0.984 | ×0.830 | ×1.010 | ×1.033 | 4.63% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.149 | ×0.970 | ×1.010 | ×1.033 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.39% | ÷0.951 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.033 | 3.33% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 90, 1B 92, 2B 97, 3B 130, K 104, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.010.
Result: wOBA .314 → .267; ISO .120 → .096; BABIP .294 → .286. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 AANew Hampshire Fisher Cats · 209 PAwOBA .304 → .242 (−62)K% 24.4% → 30.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 24.40% | ÷0.990 | ×1.220 | — | — | 30.06% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.00% | ÷0.966 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.012 | 7.96% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.91% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×1.012 | 1.65% |
| Singles /BIP | 15.38% | ÷1.022 | ×0.940 | ×0.950 | ×1.012 | 13.60% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.92% | ÷1.039 | ×0.870 | ×0.950 | ×1.012 | 5.57% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.77% | ÷0.900 | ×0.920 | ×0.950 | ×1.012 | 0.76% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.38% | ÷0.973 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.012 | 4.37% |
Factors used: level-wide AA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 95, 1B 104, 2B 108, 3B 80, K 98, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .304 → .242; ISO .177 → .141; BABIP .242 → .207. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2019 ALansing Lugnuts · 241 PAwOBA .332 → .262 (−70)K% 17.0% → 24.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 17.01% | ÷0.950 | ×1.360 | — | — | 24.35% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.28% | ÷1.016 | ×0.690 | — | — | 9.02% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.07% | — | ×0.780 | — | — | 1.62% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.25% | ÷0.972 | ×0.920 | ×0.950 | — | 19.11% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.12% | ÷0.979 | ×0.830 | ×0.950 | — | 6.55% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.25% | ÷1.050 | ×0.910 | ×0.950 | — | 1.03% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.25% | ÷1.113 | ×0.800 | — | — | 0.90% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 123, 1B 94, 2B 96, 3B 110, K 90, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.0 → +0.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .332 → .262; ISO .114 → .088; BABIP .306 → .266. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).