J.J. Matijevic
| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 25 | AAA/AA2 orgs | 457 | .254/.342/.512 | 25 | 6 | 79 | — | .204/.272/.388 | |
| 2022 | 26 | AAAHOU | 282 | .285/.374/.561 | 16 | 10 | 114 | — | .245/.310/.455 | |
| 2022 | 26 | MLBHOU | 71 | .209/.254/.328 | 2 | 1 | 63 | -0.8 | ||
| 2023 | 27 | AAAHOU | 495 | .244/.331/.441 | 16 | 8 | 75 | — | .210/.272/.364 | |
| 2024 | 28 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
| 2025 | 29 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
| 2026 | 30 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2017 | 21 | A | Quad Cities River Bandits | — | 26 | 24 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 125 | 192 | 250 | 442 | 125 | 143 | 35 | 4 | 205 | -20 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 22 | A+ | Buies Creek Astros | — | 376 | 335 | 89 | 20 | 3 | 19 | 36 | 103 | 1 | 10 | 13 | 266 | 339 | 513 | 852 | 248 | 323 | 27 | 10 | 368 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 22 | A | Quad Cities River Bandits | — | 56 | 48 | 17 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 10 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 354 | 446 | 708 | 1.155 | 354 | 400 | 18 | 14 | 491 | 149 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 23 | AA | Corpus Christi Hooks | — | 312 | 281 | 69 | 21 | 1 | 9 | 27 | 97 | 2 | 8 | 0 | 246 | 316 | 423 | 740 | 178 | 339 | 31 | 9 | 327 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 23 | A+ | Fayetteville Woodpeckers | — | 20 | 18 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 333 | 400 | 722 | 1.122 | 389 | 333 | 20 | 10 | 478 | 135 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 23 | INTL | Peoria Javelinas | — | 111 | 102 | 26 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 8 | 35 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 255 | 315 | 412 | 727 | 157 | 349 | 32 | 7 | 324 | 106 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 25 | AAA | Sugar Land Skeeters | — | 317 | 282 | 69 | 19 | 3 | 16 | 33 | 98 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 245 | 326 | 504 | 829 | 259 | 314 | 31 | 10 | 361 | 73 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 25 | AA | Corpus Christi Hooks | — | 140 | 120 | 33 | 4 | 0 | 9 | 20 | 37 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 275 | 379 | 533 | 912 | 258 | 324 | 26 | 14 | 399 | 92 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 26 | MLB | Houston Astros | — | 71 | 67 | 14 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 25 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 209 | 254 | 328 | 582 | 119 | 300 | 35 | 3 | 263 | 63 | -3 | +0 | -0 | -6 | +2 | -0.8 |
| 2022 | 26 | AAA | Sugar Land Space Cowboys | — | 282 | 246 | 70 | 16 | 2 | 16 | 33 | 68 | 2 | 10 | 2 | 285 | 374 | 561 | 935 | 276 | 331 | 24 | 12 | 405 | 114 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 27 | AAA | Sugar Land Space Cowboys | — | 495 | 435 | 106 | 26 | 6 | 16 | 54 | 122 | 3 | 8 | 1 | 244 | 331 | 441 | 773 | 198 | 300 | 25 | 11 | 341 | 75 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MLB Career | — | — | 71 | 67 | 14 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 25 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 209 | 254 | 328 | 582 | 119 | 300 | 35 | 3 | 263 | 64 | -3 | +0 | -0 | -6 | +2 | -0.8 | ||
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2017 | 21 | A MLE | Quad Cities River Bandits | — | 26 | 24 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 125 | 192 | 250 | 442 | 125 | 127 | 46 | 4 | 139 | -20 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 22 | A+ MLE | Buies Creek Astros | — | 376 | 348 | 72 | 16 | 2 | 16 | 23 | 149 | 1 | 10 | 13 | 207 | 258 | 402 | 660 | 195 | 293 | 40 | 6 | 280 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 22 | A MLE | Quad Cities River Bandits | — | 56 | 51 | 15 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 14 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 294 | 357 | 549 | 906 | 255 | 354 | 25 | 9 | 388 | 149 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 23 | AA MLE | Corpus Christi Hooks | — | 312 | 290 | 53 | 16 | 1 | 6 | 18 | 124 | 2 | 8 | 0 | 183 | 235 | 307 | 542 | 124 | 290 | 40 | 6 | 241 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 23 | A+ MLE | Fayetteville Woodpeckers | — | 20 | 19 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 316 | 350 | 684 | 1.034 | 368 | 286 | 30 | 5 | 368 | 135 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 25 | AAA MLE | Sugar Land Skeeters | — | 317 | 291 | 57 | 16 | 2 | 12 | 24 | 117 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 196 | 259 | 388 | 648 | 192 | 274 | 37 | 8 | 276 | 73 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 25 | AA MLE | Corpus Christi Hooks | — | 140 | 126 | 28 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 14 | 47 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 222 | 300 | 389 | 689 | 167 | 302 | 34 | 10 | 304 | 92 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 26 | MLB MLE | Houston Astros | — | 71 | 67 | 14 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 25 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 209 | 254 | 328 | 582 | 119 | 300 | 35 | 3 | 262 | 63 | -3 | +0 | -0 | -6 | +2 | -0.8 |
| 2022 | 26 | AAA MLE | Sugar Land Space Cowboys | — | 282 | 257 | 63 | 14 | 2 | 12 | 22 | 83 | 2 | 10 | 2 | 245 | 310 | 455 | 765 | 210 | 317 | 29 | 8 | 336 | 114 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 27 | AAA MLE | Sugar Land Space Cowboys | — | 495 | 453 | 95 | 24 | 5 | 12 | 36 | 147 | 3 | 8 | 1 | 210 | 272 | 364 | 637 | 155 | 278 | 30 | 7 | 279 | 75 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 21 | A MLE | Quad Cities River Bandits | — | 26 | 24 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 125 | 192 | 250 | 442 | 125 | 182 | 46 | 4 | 139 | -20 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 21 | A RAW | Quad Cities River Bandits | — | 26 | 24 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 125 | 192 | 250 | 442 | 125 | 143 | 35 | 4 | 205 | -20 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 22 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 432 | 400 | 87 | 21 | 3 | 18 | 27 | 163 | 1 | 13 | 13 | 217 | 269 | 420 | 689 | 202 | 309 | 38 | 6 | 294 | 85 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 22 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 432 | 383 | 106 | 26 | 4 | 22 | 44 | 113 | 1 | 13 | 13 | 277 | 353 | 538 | 891 | 261 | 333 | 26 | 10 | 384 | 85 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 23 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 443 | 412 | 79 | 23 | 1 | 11 | 26 | 173 | 3 | 9 | 3 | 192 | 245 | 333 | 577 | 141 | 296 | 39 | 6 | 249 | 54 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 23 | AA RAW | 3 teams | — | 443 | 401 | 101 | 24 | 2 | 15 | 37 | 136 | 3 | 9 | 3 | 252 | 320 | 434 | 754 | 182 | 341 | 31 | 8 | 333 | 54 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 25 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 457 | 418 | 85 | 20 | 2 | 18 | 37 | 164 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 203 | 270 | 390 | 660 | 187 | 283 | 36 | 8 | 285 | 79 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 25 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 457 | 402 | 102 | 23 | 3 | 25 | 53 | 135 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 254 | 342 | 512 | 855 | 259 | 317 | 30 | 12 | 373 | 79 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 26 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 353 | 324 | 77 | 16 | 2 | 14 | 24 | 108 | 4 | 11 | 2 | 238 | 298 | 429 | 727 | 191 | 310 | 31 | 7 | 321 | 103 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 26 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 353 | 313 | 84 | 18 | 2 | 18 | 35 | 93 | 4 | 11 | 2 | 268 | 349 | 511 | 861 | 243 | 325 | 26 | 10 | 376 | 103 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 27 | AAA MLE | Sugar Land Space Cowboys | — | 495 | 453 | 95 | 24 | 5 | 12 | 36 | 147 | 3 | 8 | 1 | 210 | 272 | 364 | 637 | 155 | 279 | 30 | 7 | 279 | 75 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 27 | AAA RAW | Sugar Land Space Cowboys | — | 495 | 435 | 106 | 26 | 6 | 16 | 54 | 122 | 3 | 8 | 1 | 244 | 331 | 441 | 773 | 198 | 300 | 25 | 11 | 341 | 75 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 21 | A MLE | Quad Cities River Bandits | — | 26 | 24 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 125 | 192 | 250 | 442 | 125 | 127 | 46 | 4 | 139 | -20 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 22 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 432 | 401 | 87 | 21 | 3 | 18 | 27 | 163 | 1 | 13 | 13 | 217 | 269 | 419 | 688 | 202 | 301 | 38 | 6 | 294 | 85 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 23 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 443 | 411 | 79 | 23 | 1 | 11 | 26 | 173 | 3 | 9 | 3 | 192 | 245 | 333 | 578 | 141 | 290 | 39 | 6 | 249 | 54 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 25 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 457 | 416 | 85 | 20 | 2 | 18 | 37 | 164 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 204 | 270 | 392 | 662 | 188 | 283 | 36 | 8 | 285 | 79 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 26 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 353 | 322 | 77 | 16 | 2 | 14 | 24 | 108 | 4 | 11 | 2 | 239 | 298 | 432 | 730 | 193 | 314 | 31 | 7 | 321 | 103 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 27 | AAA MLE | Sugar Land Space Cowboys | — | 495 | 453 | 95 | 24 | 5 | 12 | 36 | 147 | 3 | 8 | 1 | 210 | 272 | 364 | 637 | 155 | 278 | 30 | 7 | 279 | 75 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 71 | 67 | 14 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 25 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 209 | 254 | 328 | 582 | 119 | 300 | 35 | 3 | 263 | 77 | -3 | +0 | -0 | -6 | +2 | -0.8 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 613 | 128 | 18 | 0 | 18 | 18 | 229 | 18 | 9 | 0 | 209 | 252 | 326 | 579 | 117 | 301 | 35 | 3 | 263 | 77 | -28 | +2 | -1 | -58 | +14 | -7.2 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 2206 | 2031 | 426 | 104 | 13 | 74 | 151 | 767 | 13 | 47 | 21 | 210 | 269 | 383 | 652 | 173 | 293 | 35 | 7 | 282 | 77 | -3 | +0 | -0 | -6 | +2 | -0.8 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 598 | 126 | 31 | 4 | 22 | 44 | 226 | 4 | 14 | 6 | 211 | 269 | 386 | 655 | 176 | 295 | 35 | 7 | 282 | 77 | -28 | +2 | -1 | -58 | +14 | -7.2 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2023 AAASugar Land Space Cowboys · 495 PAwOBA .334 → .279 (−55)K% 24.6% → 29.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 24.65% | ÷1.000 | ×1.200 | — | — | 29.57% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.91% | ÷1.028 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.992 | 7.26% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.61% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.992 | 0.57% |
| Singles /BIP | 18.53% | ÷0.981 | ×0.930 | ×1.001 | ×0.992 | 17.45% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.31% | ÷0.882 | ×0.830 | ×1.001 | ×0.992 | 7.76% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.92% | ÷1.056 | ×0.970 | ×1.001 | ×0.992 | 1.75% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.11% | ÷0.896 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.992 | 3.96% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 79, 1B 96, 2B 76, 3B 111, K 100, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.001.
Result: wOBA .334 → .279; ISO .198 → .165; BABIP .300 → .278. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 AAASugar Land Space Cowboys · 282 PAwOBA .392 → .336 (−56)K% 24.1% → 29.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 24.11% | ÷0.986 | ×1.200 | — | — | 29.34% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.64% | ÷0.953 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.003 | 7.72% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.71% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.003 | 0.67% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.22% | ÷0.982 | ×0.930 | ×1.050 | ×1.003 | 20.16% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.99% | ÷0.952 | ×0.830 | ×1.050 | ×1.003 | 8.25% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.12% | ÷0.900 | ×0.970 | ×1.050 | ×1.003 | 1.28% |
| Home runs /BIP | 8.99% | ÷0.917 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.003 | 6.88% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 83, 1B 96, 2B 90, 3B 80, K 97, BB 91 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .392 → .336; ISO .276 → .224; BABIP .331 → .317. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 AAASugar Land Skeeters · 317 PAwOBA .352 → .276 (−75)K% 30.9% → 37.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 30.91% | ÷1.002 | ×1.200 | — | — | 37.03% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.41% | ÷0.975 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.018 | 7.50% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.32% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.018 | 0.30% |
| Singles /BIP | 16.85% | ÷1.023 | ×0.930 | ×0.976 | ×1.018 | 15.22% |
| Doubles /BIP | 10.33% | ÷0.923 | ×0.830 | ×0.976 | ×1.018 | 9.22% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.63% | ÷1.150 | ×0.920 | ×0.976 | ×1.018 | 1.30% |
| Home runs /BIP | 8.70% | ÷0.935 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.018 | 6.62% |
Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 87, 1B 105, 2B 85, 3B 130, K 100, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.976.
Result: wOBA .352 → .276; ISO .259 → .197; BABIP .314 → .274. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 AACorpus Christi Hooks · 140 PAwOBA .389 → .304 (−85)K% 26.4% → 33.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 26.43% | ÷0.959 | ×1.220 | — | — | 33.63% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 14.29% | ÷0.990 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.988 | 9.84% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.10% | ÷1.002 | ×0.940 | ×1.050 | ×0.988 | 23.45% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.82% | ÷0.987 | ×0.870 | ×1.050 | ×0.988 | 4.41% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.920 | ×1.050 | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 10.84% | ÷1.074 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.988 | 7.78% |
Factors used: level-wide AA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 115, 1B 100, 2B 97, 3B 130, K 92, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 24.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .389 → .304; ISO .258 → .183; BABIP .324 → .302. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2019 AACorpus Christi Hooks · 312 PAwOBA .320 → .241 (−79)K% 31.1% → 39.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 31.09% | ÷0.958 | ×1.220 | — | — | 39.61% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.65% | ÷1.043 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.012 | 5.88% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.64% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×1.012 | 0.56% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.65% | ÷1.011 | ×0.920 | ×0.950 | ×1.012 | 18.07% |
| Doubles /BIP | 11.41% | ÷0.949 | ×0.840 | ×0.950 | ×1.012 | 9.71% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.54% | ÷0.995 | ×0.940 | ×0.950 | ×1.012 | 0.49% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.89% | ÷1.067 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.012 | 3.71% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 113, 1B 102, 2B 90, 3B 99, K 92, BB 109 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .320 → .241; ISO .178 → .131; BABIP .339 → .290. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2019 A+Fayetteville Woodpeckers · 20 PAwOBA .464 → .368 (−96)K% 20.0% → 28.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.00% | ÷0.983 | ×1.420 | — | — | 28.88% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.630 | — | ×0.988 | 6.22% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.860 | — | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.43% | ÷1.029 | ×0.940 | — | ×0.988 | 19.34% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.14% | ÷1.068 | ×0.830 | — | ×0.988 | 5.49% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 14.29% | ÷0.969 | ×0.900 | — | ×0.988 | 13.11% |
Factors used: league row CAR. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 94, 1B 106, 2B 114, 3B 130, K 97, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .464 → .368; ISO .389 → .323; BABIP .333 → .286. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2018 A+Buies Creek Astros · 376 PAwOBA .362 → .280 (−82)K% 27.4% → 39.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 27.39% | ÷0.980 | ×1.420 | — | — | 39.68% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.57% | ÷1.007 | ×0.630 | — | ×0.998 | 5.98% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.27% | — | ×0.860 | — | ×0.998 | 0.23% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.26% | ÷1.029 | ×0.940 | ×1.009 | ×0.998 | 18.65% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.62% | ÷0.915 | ×0.830 | ×1.009 | ×0.998 | 7.87% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.29% | ÷0.931 | ×0.800 | ×1.009 | ×0.998 | 1.12% |
| Home runs /BIP | 8.19% | ÷0.962 | ×0.900 | — | ×0.998 | 7.65% |
Factors used: league row CAR. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 92, 1B 106, 2B 83, 3B 86, K 96, BB 101 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.009.
Result: wOBA .362 → .280; ISO .248 → .201; BABIP .323 → .293. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2018 AQuad Cities River Bandits · 56 PAwOBA .473 → .388 (−85)K% 17.9% → 24.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 17.86% | ÷0.976 | ×1.360 | — | — | 24.90% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.50% | ÷0.968 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.990 | 8.82% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×0.990 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 18.42% | ÷0.939 | ×0.920 | — | ×0.990 | 17.86% |
| Doubles /BIP | 15.79% | ÷1.012 | ×0.830 | — | ×0.990 | 12.82% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.63% | ÷0.973 | ×0.910 | — | ×0.990 | 2.44% |
| Home runs /BIP | 7.89% | ÷0.973 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.990 | 6.42% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 95, 1B 88, 2B 102, 3B 95, K 95, BB 94 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.0 → −1.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .473 → .388; ISO .354 → .286; BABIP .400 → .354. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .