Wilyer Abreu — OGILVIE

Wilyer AbreuRF Boston Red Sox

Age 27 L/L 5'10" / 215 lbs MLB H +3% Svc 2.238S2 · Ctrl thru 2029

2026 ROS PROJECTION400 act + 266 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†vL 75121vR 139

AVG/OBP/SLG.260 / .332 / .448

PA266

HR9

K%22

BB%9

BABIP311

ISO189

MLB%100%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control

Tools · Splits · ContractCON 45 / POW 55

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2024-2026

CONTACT45

Whiff%

778.2%

xwOBA

710.332

POWER55

Barrel%

7511.9

Avg EV

7690.9

Bat Spd

7574.0

EYE50

Chase%

9022.0%

SPEED50

Sprint

6628.1

Platoon Splits2024-2026 · 973 PA

vs LHP

vs RHP

Edge

165

808

—

wRC+

130

▶▶R

wOBA

279

355

▶▶R

ISO

114

231

▶▶R

BABIP

271

314

▶R

21.2%

26.1%

◀◀L

BB%

7.9%

8.7%

▶R

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb SUPER-2

MLB Debut 2023

Service 2.238 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2029

First FA Year 2030

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext	$0.3M	+1.2	$9M	+$9M
2027	Arb-2	$8M	+4.1	$30M	+$24M
2028	Arb-3	$12M	+3.8	$26M	+$16M
2029	Arb-4	$17M	+3.5	$22M	+$10M
Totals		$37M		$88M	+$59M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2017	18	ROK	DSL Astros Blue	—	138	124	26	3	1	0	9	42	4	7	4	210	285	250	535	40	313	30	7	239	41	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	18	ROK	DSL Astros Blue	—	138	119	34	5	1	0	14	29	4	7	4	286	380	345	724	59	374	21	10	334	114	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	19	ROK	2 teams	—	188	172	26	8	0	0	13	54	0	8	4	151	211	198	408	47	218	29	7	188	2	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	19	ROK	2 teams	—	188	166	38	14	0	0	19	40	0	8	4	229	308	313	621	84	299	21	10	282	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	20	A	Quad Cities River Bandits	—	138	127	26	4	1	1	9	39	2	4	5	205	268	276	544	71	287	28	7	246	46	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	20	A	Quad Cities River Bandits	—	138	122	33	7	2	1	14	29	2	4	5	270	355	385	740	115	348	21	10	336	115	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	21	INTL	Aguilas del Zulia	—	17	16	2	0	0	0	1	4	0	2	0	125	176	125	301		167	24	6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	21	INTL	Aguilas del Zulia	—	17	16	2	0	0	0	1	4	0	2	0	125	176	125	301		167	24	6	148	-29	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	22	A+	Asheville Tourists	—	331	300	55	9	1	9	25	135	5	10	11	183	258	310	568	127	293	41	8	249	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	22	A+	Asheville Tourists	—	331	287	77	15	1	16	38	99	5	10	11	268	364	495	858	226	353	30	11	378	147	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	23	AA	2 teams	—	648	551	109	23	0	19	84	224	4	34	4	198	308	343	651	145	284	35	13	290	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	23	AA	2 teams	—	648	511	122	31	0	19	124	171	4	34	4	239	391	411	802	172	312	26	19	361	134	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	24	AAA	2 teams	—	448	393	93	11	1	21	50	108	1	11	2	237	324	430	754	193	269	24	11	331	111	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	24	AAA	2 teams	—	448	375	106	17	1	24	68	97	1	11	2	283	394	525	919	243	318	22	15	401	165	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	25	MLB	Boston Red Sox	—	447	399	96	29	2	15	40	125	3	8	3	241	314	436	751	195	307	28	9	326	108	+4	+0	+5	-5	+13	1.8
2024	25	MLB	Boston Red Sox	—	447	399	101	33	2	15	40	125	3	8	3	253	326	459	784	206	326	28	9	342	120	+10	+0	+5	-5	+13	2.4
2025	26	MLB	Boston Red Sox	—	417	373	88	15	0	22	40	101	0	6	3	236	310	453	763	217	261	24	10	322	105	+2	+0	+6	-4	+12	1.6
2025	26	MLB	Boston Red Sox	—	417	373	92	17	0	22	40	101	0	6	3	247	320	469	789	223	277	24	10	344	121	+10	+0	+6	-4	+12	2.4
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	27	MLB	BOS	—	400	354	92	20	3	11	39	82	1	6	3	260	335	427	762	167	305	20	10	329	110	+5	+0	+1	-4	+11	1.3
YTD	27	MLB	BOS	—	400	353	92	20	3	11	39	82	1	6	3	261	335	428	763	167	306	20	10	335	114	+6	+0	+1	-4	+11	1.4
ROS	27	MLB	BOS	100%	266	238	62	16	1	9	25	60	1	4	2	260	332	448	781	189	312	22	9	347	124	+7	+0	+5	-3	+8	1.7
ROS	27	MLB	BOS	100%	267	238	64	17	1	9	26	60	1	4	2	269	343	462	806	193	321	22	10	351	127	+8	+0	+5	-3	+8	1.8
FULL	27	MLB	BOS	—	667	592	156	37	4	20	65	142	2	10	5	264	338	441	779	177	312	21	10	338	117	+13	+0	+5	-7	+19	3.0
TOT	27	MLB	BOS	—	666	592	154	36	4	20	64	142	2	10	5	260	334	435	769	175	307	21	10	336	116	+12	+0	+5	-7	+19	2.9
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	28	MLB	BOS	100%	653	583	153	40	2	22	63	148	2	10	4	262	336	451	788	189	313	23	10	347	123	+17	+0	+10	-7	+19	4.0
2028	29	MLB	BOS	100%	640	571	150	39	2	22	62	146	2	9	3	263	337	454	791	191	312	23	10	344	122	+16	+1	+10	-7	+18	3.8
2029	30	MLB	BOS	100%	627	559	145	38	1	21	61	145	2	8	3	259	334	444	778	184	310	23	10	341	119	+14	+0	+9	-7	+18	3.4
2030	31	MLB	BOS	100%	615	549	139	36	1	20	60	144	1	7	3	253	328	432	760	179	306	23	10	336	116	+11	+0	+8	-7	+17	3.0
2031	32	MLB	BOS	100%	603	539	133	34	1	19	58	143	1	6	2	247	321	419	740	173	301	24	10	329	110	+7	+0	+7	-6	+17	2.5
2032	33	MLB	BOS	100%	520	464	112	28	1	16	50	126	1	4	1	241	317	409	726	168	294	24	10	320	103	+2	+0	+5	-6	+15	1.7
2033	34	MLB	BOS	96%	439	393	91	22	1	13	42	109	1	2	1	232	307	392	699	160	285	25	10	309	95	-3	+0	+3	-5	+12	0.8
2034	35	MLB	BOS	91%	372	334	73	17	1	10	35	96	0	1	1	219	293	365	658	147	275	26	9	296	85	-6	-0	+1	-4	+11	0.1
2027	28	MLB	BOS	100%	653	583	156	42	2	22	63	148	2	10	4	268	341	460	801	192	321	23	10	351	127	+20	+0	+10	-7	+19	4.3
2028	29	MLB	BOS	100%	640	571	153	41	2	22	62	146	2	9	3	268	342	462	804	194	320	23	10	349	125	+18	+1	+10	-7	+18	4.0
2029	30	MLB	BOS	100%	627	559	148	40	1	21	61	145	2	8	3	265	339	453	792	188	318	23	10	346	123	+16	+0	+9	-7	+18	3.7
2030	31	MLB	BOS	100%	615	549	143	39	1	20	60	144	1	7	3	260	334	444	779	184	315	23	10	341	119	+13	+0	+8	-7	+17	3.3
2031	32	MLB	BOS	100%	603	539	137	37	1	19	58	143	1	6	2	254	328	432	760	178	310	24	10	334	114	+9	+0	+7	-6	+17	2.8
2032	33	MLB	BOS	100%	520	464	115	30	1	16	50	126	1	4	1	248	322	420	743	172	303	24	10	325	107	+4	+0	+5	-6	+15	1.9
2033	34	MLB	BOS	96%	419	375	90	23	1	12	40	104	1	2	1	240	315	403	718	163	293	25	10	313	98	-1	+0	+3	-4	+12	0.9
2034	35	MLB	BOS	91%	339	304	68	17	0	9	32	87	0	1	0	224	298	368	666	145	282	26	9	300	88	-5	+0	+1	-4	+10	0.2
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	5632	5030	1291	342	12	189	541	1352	14	68	26	257	331	442	773	185	313	24	10	338	117	+109	+3	+67	-58	+160	28.6
/ 162G	—			—	650	581	148	39	1	22	62	156	2	8	3	255	329	439	768	184	310	24	10	338	117	+13	+0	+8	-7	+18	3.3
Career	—			—	7507	6685	1579	372	17	239	727	1949	30	141	56	236	314	404	718	168	295	26	10	316	100	-1	+6	+67	-74	+213	21.5
/ 162G	—			—	650	579	136	32	1	21	63	169	3	12	5	235	314	402	716	168	293	26	10	316	100	-0	+0	+6	-6	+18	1.9

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2017	18	ROK	DSL Astros Blue	—	138	119	34	5	1	0	14	29	4	7	4	286	380	345	724	59	374	21	10	334	114	+2	-0	—	—	+4	0.6
2018	19	ROK	GCL Astros	—	160	139	31	11	0	0	18	32	0	8	4	223	312	302	614	79	287	20	11	280	72	-5	+0	—	—	+5	-0.0
2018	19	INTL	Aguilas del Zulia	—	28	27	7	3	0	0	1	8	0	0	0	259	286	370	656	111	368	29	4	292	81	-1	+0	—	—	+1	0.0
2019	20	A	Quad Cities River Bandits	—	138	122	33	7	2	1	14	29	2	4	5	270	355	385	740	115	348	21	10	336	115	+2	-1	—	—	+4	0.5
2020	21	INTL	Aguilas del Zulia	—	17	16	2	0	0	0	1	4	0	2	0	125	176	125	301		167	24	6	148	-29	-2	+0	—	—	+0	-0.2
2021	22	A+	Asheville Tourists	—	331	287	77	15	1	16	38	99	5	10	11	268	364	495	858	226	353	30	11	378	147	+18	-2	—	—	+9	2.5
2022	23	AA	Portland Sea Dogs	—	579	457	113	29	0	19	114	153	4	31	3	247	402	435	837	188	325	26	20	377	146	+30	+5	—	—	+16	5.3
2022	23	INTL	Scottsdale Scorpions	—	69	54	9	2	0	0	10	18	0	3	1	167	297	204	501	37	220	26	14	230	34	-5	+0	—	—	+2	-0.3
2023	24	MLB	Boston Red Sox	—	85	76	24	6	0	2	9	23	0	3	1	316	388	474	862	158	431	27	11	384	152	+5	+0	-0	+2	+2	0.9
2023	24	AAA	Worcester Red Sox	—	363	299	82	11	1	22	59	74	1	8	1	274	396	538	934	264	290	20	16	405	168	+28	+1	—	—	+10	4.0
2024	25	MLB	Boston Red Sox	—	447	399	101	33	2	15	40	125	3	8	3	253	326	459	784	206	326	28	9	342	120	+10	+0	+5	-5	+13	2.4
2025	26	MLB	Boston Red Sox	—	417	373	92	17	0	22	40	101	0	6	3	247	320	469	789	223	277	24	10	344	121	+10	+0	+6	-4	+12	2.4
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	949	848	217	56	2	39	89	249	3	17	7	256	329	465	793	209	313	26	9	347	124	+25	+1	+11	-8	+27	5.7

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Alex Gordonlast yr '20 AS×3GG×7SS career totals — 14 seasons, 7,250 PA	14	7,250	190	113	257	338	410	-58	+22	27.4	26.4
	/162	664	17	10	257	338	410	-5.3	+2.0	2.5	pk7: 25
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 13 projected seasons	13	6,409	215	81	252	322	434	-69	+39	19.7	17.6
	/162	664	22	8	252	322	434	-7.1	+4.0	2.0	pk7: 16
#2José Cruz Jr.last yr '08 career totals — 9 seasons, 4,179 PA	9	4,179	153	81	247	336	445	-35	-7	17.4	17.2
	/162	664	24	13	247	336	445	-5.6	-1.1	2.8	pk7: 17
#3Austin Kearnslast yr '12 career totals — 11 seasons, 4,148 PA	11	4,148	121	33	254	351	415	-42	-4	15.7	15.9
	/162	664	19	5	254	351	415	-6.8	-0.6	2.5	pk7: 16
#4Kendrys Moraleslast yr '19 career totals — 13 seasons, 5,357 PA	13	5,357	213	6	265	327	453	-95	-16	14.9	15.2
	/162	664	26	1	265	327	453	-11.8	-2.0	1.8	pk7: 16
#5Jay Paytonlast yr '08 career totals — 9 seasons, 4,422 PA	9	4,422	119	45	278	322	425	-33	-0	13.2	13.4
#5Jay Paytonlast yr '08 career totals — 9 seasons, 4,422 PA	/162	664	18	7	278	322	425	-5.0	-0.0	2.0	pk7: 14
#6Josh Reddicklast yr '21 career totals — 13 seasons, 4,879 PA	13	4,879	146	61	262	321	426	-52	-8	13.1	13.0
	/162	664	20	8	262	321	426	-7.1	-1.1	1.8	pk7: 13

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Wilyer Abreu (OGILVIE)	27	45	55	50	50	260/334/435	175	307	20	10	21%	10%	116	+2.9	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
●Matt Joyce 2012 · MLB	27	50→53	55→60	50	55	254/336/450	197	296	21	12	22%	10%	124	+3.4	245/336/430	185	285	21	8	21%	11%	119	+3.1	238/352/447	209	270	25	3	21%	15%	125	+2.2
✕Jordan Luplow 2021 · MLB	27	48	54→65	46→50	55	247/334/438	192	288	21	9	22%	11%	120	+3.1	215/310/422	207	249	27	8	25%	11%	107	+2.2	193/293/392	199	214	28	7	25%	11%	90	+0.5
●Chas McCormick 2022 · MLB	27	47→51	52→55	48→55	47	243/313/407	164	307	21	11	28%	8%	104	+2.0	245/322/409	164	312	21	14	27%	9%	108	+2.3	239/319/393	154	302	20	17	26%	9%	101	+1.2
✕Gregory Polanco 2020 · MLB	28	48→55	55→60	53→55	51	248/321/440	193	293	21	12	23%	10%	115	+2.8	220/290/396	176	280	22	16	29%	9%	92	+1.2	201/272/370	169	252	22	19	29%	8%	73	-0.1
●Trent Grisham 2023 · MLB	26	42→50	53→60	51→55	52	221/312/396	175	271	20	12	26%	11%	101	+1.8	212/315/390	178	263	21	10	27%	12%	101	+1.8	221/330/419	198	244	27	6	22%	13%	112	+1.6
✕Aaron Altherr 2018 · MLB	27	49→52	54→55	50	48	250/323/442	192	305	21	12	25%	8%	117	+2.9	210/293/366	156	281	17	10	30%	9%	85	+0.7	175/269/307	132	240	15	9	32%	10%	59	-0.5
✕Jake Fraley 2023 · MLB	28	47→50	54→60	51→55	56	242/340/415	172	300	23	15	26%	12%	117	+2.9	252/328/403	151	297	17	23	20%	9%	108	+2.3	253/326/393	140	296	15	27	19%	9%	102	+1.0
●Jay Bruce 2015 · MLB	28	45→54	55→65	48→50	48	235/303/420	186	286	23	10	26%	9%	103	+1.9	236/302/449	213	269	27	7	23%	8%	110	+2.4	239/307/473	234	261	30	5	22%	9%	113	+2.7
●Ryan Church 2007 · MLB	28	48→55	53→55	50→45	49	245/319/419	175	301	20	11	25%	9%	109	+2.4	263/336/431	168	316	17	7	21%	9%	119	+3.1	271/344/428	157	322	14	5	19%	9%	114	+1.9
●Kole Calhoun 2015 · MLB	27	54→57	52→60	48→50	49	271/327/448	178	311	19	9	20%	8%	120	+3.1	264/329/434	170	310	20	5	21%	8%	117	+2.9	257/332/422	164	301	19	3	21%	9%	112	+2.8
●Michael Saunders 2015 · MLB	28	51→52	51→55	50→55	53	254/331/427	173	313	17	14	24%	10%	115	+2.8	243/318/415	172	311	18	6	26%	10%	108	+2.3	218/289/383	165	274	18	2	27%	8%	83	+0.4
●Josh Reddick 2014 · MLB	27	45→55	56→60	52→50	52	239/309/432	193	266	23	10	21%	9%	108	+2.3	265/325/442	177	289	20	9	16%	8%	118	+3.0	282/342/440	158	302	17	9	13%	8%	119	+2.7
✕DJ Stewart 2021 · MLB	27	42→47	55→60	44→50	51	224/310/412	188	265	23	8	25%	10%	104	+2.0	224/324/413	189	278	25	5	28%	11%	111	+2.5	212/319/414	202	253	29	2	28%	11%	105	+1.0
✕John Bowker 2010 · MLB	27	51→55	52→55	47→45	48	261/323/433	172	304	19	8	21%	8%	115	+2.7	252/302/421	169	294	20	5	21%	6%	102	+1.9	235/272/391	156	273	19	2	22%	4%	78	+0.2
✕Cavan Biggio 2022 · MLB	27	45→48	49→60	52→50	57	225/330/378	153	290	17	11	27%	13%	104	+2.0	218/323/355	137	290	14	8	27%	12%	95	+1.4	208/324/337	128	281	13	8	28%	12%	91	+0.6
✕Josh VanMeter 2022 · MLB	27	44→47	54→55	48→50	53	231/318/420	188	283	22	10	26%	11%	109	+2.4	205/303/346	141	268	15	9	27%	12%	84	+0.6	172/284/282	110	228	12	9	28%	13%	58	-0.4
●Luke Raley 2022 · MLB	27	49→48	56→60	50	38	252/322/443	191	327	25	11	30%	5%	118	+3.0	248/326/447	199	328	25	14	31%	6%	121	+3.2	245/327/458	213	323	28	15	31%	7%	121	+2.1
●Jake Lamb 2017 · MLB	26	50→55	55→60	52→45	50	252/325/455	203	313	21	6	26%	10%	121	+3.2	233/331/427	194	286	22	6	25%	12%	116	+2.8	220/331/403	184	268	21	4	25%	13%	102	+1.2
✕Jackie Bradley Jr. 2017 · MLB	27	50→54	53→55	52→50	50	251/326/435	183	303	19	9	23%	9%	116	+2.8	237/317/412	175	291	19	11	24%	9%	107	+2.2	224/310/393	169	278	18	12	25%	9%	94	+1.2
●LaMonte Wade Jr. 2022 · MLB	28	47→57	56→55	48→45	52	244/326/437	193	280	23	9	22%	10%	117	+2.9	250/348/425	175	290	21	5	20%	12%	123	+3.3	251/365/407	155	295	18	2	20%	14%	121	+2.2