Wilyer Abreu

RF Boston Red Sox

Age 28 L/L 5'10" / 215 lbs MLB HR -5%K -4% Svc 3.238 · Ctrl thru 2029

Overview

MLB40-MANArb-1FA 2030

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR
2024	25	MLBBOS	447	.253/.326/.459	15	8	111	1.7
2025	26	MLBBOS	417	.247/.320/.469	22	6	110	1.6
2026	27	MLBBOS	681	.248/.330/.446	24	8	109	1.6
2027PROJ	28	MLBBOS	614	.255/.329/.461	25	9	116	3.0
2028PROJ	29	MLBBOS	614	.252/.326/.454	24	7	113	2.6
2029PROJ	30	MLBBOS	614	.248/.322/.445	23	5	110	2.2

Last 3 seasons WAR 4.9 · Next 3 projected WAR 7.8Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2029Service3.238First FA2030

2027Arb-1$6M2028Arb-2$9M2029Arb-3$12M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2024-2026

Barrel%76

Bat Spd75

xwOBA74

Avg EV72

Speed63

Form.238/.311/.419 ▼ rolling true talent (60d window) · proj .247/.320/.451

CompsTravis Shaw (age 28) · Scott Schebler (age 28) · Matt Joyce (age 28)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†vL 98116vR 122

AVG/OBP/SLG.255 / .329 / .461

PA614

HR25

SB9

K%22

BB%9

BABIP294

ISO209

MLB%100%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$35M ctrl surplus

Tools · Recent Form · Splits · ContractCON 45 / POW 55

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2024-2026

CONTACT45

xAVG

400.243

POWER55

Barrel%

7612.0

Avg EV

7290.6

Bat Spd

7574.0

EYE50

scouting grade only

SPEED50

Sprint

6328.0

Recent Formrolling true talent ⓘ

K%23%·23% over 109 PA (60d) · proj 22%

BB%9%·9% over 109 PA (60d) · proj 10%

ISO.181▼.143 over 98 AB (60d) · proj .204

HR/BB4.7%▼2.7% over 73 BBE (60d) · proj 6.1%

BABIP.282·.268 over 71 BIP (60d) · proj .283

SLASH.238/.311/.419▼proj .247/.320/.451

Platoon Splits2024-2026 · 973 PA

vs LHP

vs RHP

Edge

165

808

—

wRC+

126

▶▶R

wOBA

279

355

▶▶R

ISO

114

231

▶▶R

BABIP

271

314

▶R

21.2%

26.1%

◀◀L

BB%

7.9%

8.7%

▶R

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Arb-1

MLB Debut 2023

Service 3.238 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2029

First FA Year 2030

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Arb-1	$6M	+2.9	$26M	+$20M
2028	Arb-2	$9M	+2.6	$20M	+$12M
2029	Arb-3	$12M	+2.2	$15M	+$5M
Totals		$27M		$60M	+$37M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2017	18	ROK	DSL Astros Blue	—	138	119	34	5	1	0	14	29	4	7	4	286	380	345	724	59	374	21	10	334	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	19	ROK	GCL Astros	—	160	139	31	11	0	0	18	32	0	8	4	223	312	302	614	79	287	20	11	280	14	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	19	INTL	Aguilas del Zulia	—	28	27	7	3	0	0	1	8	0	0	0	259	286	370	656	111	368	29	4	292	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	20	A	Quad Cities River Bandits	—	138	122	33	7	2	1	14	29	2	4	5	270	355	385	740	115	348	21	10	336	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	21	INTL	Aguilas del Zulia	—	17	16	2	0	0	0	1	4	0	2	0	125	176	125	301		167	24	6	148	-14	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	22	A+	Asheville Tourists	—	331	287	77	15	1	16	38	99	5	10	11	268	364	495	858	226	353	30	11	378	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	23	AA	Portland Sea Dogs	—	579	457	113	29	0	19	114	153	4	31	3	247	402	435	837	188	325	26	20	377	90	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	23	INTL	Scottsdale Scorpions	—	69	54	9	2	0	0	10	18	0	3	1	167	297	204	501	37	220	26	14	230	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	24	MLB	Boston Red Sox	—	85	76	24	6	0	2	9	23	0	3	1	316	388	474	862	158	431	27	11	384	138	+4	+0	-0	+2	+2	0.8
2023	24	AAA	Worcester Red Sox	—	363	299	82	11	1	22	59	74	1	8	1	274	396	538	934	264	290	20	16	405	103	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	25	MLB	Boston Red Sox	—	447	399	101	33	2	15	40	125	3	8	3	253	326	459	784	206	326	28	9	342	111	+6	+0	+5	-5	+10	1.7
2025	26	MLB	Boston Red Sox	—	417	373	92	17	0	22	40	101	0	6	3	247	320	469	789	223	277	24	10	344	110	+5	+0	+6	-4	+9	1.6
2026	27	MLB	Boston Red Sox	—	681	597	148	38	4	24	71	141	3	8	4	248	330	446	775	198	282	21	10	339	109	+7	+0	+1	-7	+15	1.6
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	1630	1445	365	94	6	63	160	390	6	25	11	253	329	457	786	204	300	24	10	344	119	+36	+1	+12	-15	+35	7.1
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2017	18	ROK MLE	DSL Astros Blue	—	138	123	23	3	1	0	10	35	4	7	4	187	270	228	498	41	255	25	7	225	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	19	ROK MLE	GCL Astros	—	160	146	22	7	0	0	11	46	0	8	4	151	210	199	409	48	215	29	7	189	14	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	20	A MLE	Quad Cities River Bandits	—	138	127	27	5	1	1	9	39	2	4	5	213	275	291	567	79	301	28	7	255	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	22	A+ MLE	Asheville Tourists	—	331	299	57	10	1	11	26	134	5	10	11	191	267	341	608	151	292	40	8	262	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	23	AA MLE	Portland Sea Dogs	—	579	491	101	23	0	15	80	188	4	31	3	206	322	344	666	138	292	32	14	301	90	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	24	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	—	85	76	23	5	0	2	9	23	0	3	1	303	376	447	824	145	431	27	11	372	138	+4	+0	-0	+2	+2	0.8
2023	24	AAA MLE	Worcester Red Sox	—	363	316	71	7	1	17	42	87	1	8	1	225	318	415	732	190	248	24	12	320	103	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	25	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	—	447	399	96	29	2	15	40	125	3	8	3	241	314	436	751	195	326	28	9	333	111	+6	+0	+5	-5	+10	1.7
2025	26	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	—	417	378	90	15	0	23	35	101	0	6	3	238	303	460	763	222	277	24	8	331	110	+5	+0	+6	-4	+9	1.6
2026	27	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	—	681	602	144	34	4	25	68	141	3	8	4	239	319	434	753	194	282	21	10	330	109	+7	+0	+1	-7	+15	1.6
2017	18	ROK MLE	DSL Astros Blue	—	138	123	23	3	1	0	10	35	4	7	4	187	270	228	498	41	258	25	7	225	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	18	ROK RAW	DSL Astros Blue	—	138	119	34	5	1	0	14	29	4	7	4	286	380	345	724	59	374	21	10	334	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	19	ROK MLE	2 teams	—	188	172	27	9	0	0	13	54	0	8	4	157	216	209	426	52	227	29	7	189	14	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	19	ROK RAW	2 teams	—	188	166	38	14	0	0	19	40	0	8	4	229	308	313	621	84	299	21	10	282	14	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	20	A MLE	Quad Cities River Bandits	—	138	127	27	5	1	1	9	39	2	4	5	213	275	291	567	79	299	28	7	255	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	20	A RAW	Quad Cities River Bandits	—	138	122	33	7	2	1	14	29	2	4	5	270	355	385	740	115	348	21	10	336	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	21	INTL MLE	Aguilas del Zulia	—	17	16	2	0	0	0	1	4	0	2	0	125	176	125	301		167	24	6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	21	INTL RAW	Aguilas del Zulia	—	17	16	2	0	0	0	1	4	0	2	0	125	176	125	301		167	24	6	148	-14	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	22	A+ MLE	Asheville Tourists	—	331	299	57	10	1	11	26	134	5	10	11	191	267	341	608	151	297	40	8	262	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	22	A+ RAW	Asheville Tourists	—	331	287	77	15	1	16	38	99	5	10	11	268	364	495	858	226	353	30	11	378	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	23	AA MLE	2 teams	—	648	546	114	26	0	17	89	210	4	34	4	209	324	350	674	141	296	32	14	301	90	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	23	AA RAW	2 teams	—	648	511	122	31	0	19	124	171	4	34	4	239	391	411	802	172	312	26	19	361	90	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	24	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	448	392	95	13	1	19	51	110	1	11	2	242	331	426	757	184	285	25	11	330	109	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	24	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	448	375	106	17	1	24	68	97	1	11	2	283	394	525	919	243	318	22	15	401	109	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	25	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	—	447	399	96	29	2	15	40	125	3	8	3	241	314	436	751	195	307	28	9	333	111	+6	+0	+5	-5	+10	1.7
2024	25	MLB RAW	Boston Red Sox	—	447	399	101	33	2	15	40	125	3	8	3	253	326	459	784	206	326	28	9	342	111	+6	+0	+5	-5	+10	1.7
2025	26	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	—	417	378	90	15	0	23	35	101	0	6	3	238	303	460	763	222	261	24	8	331	110	+5	+0	+6	-4	+9	1.6
2025	26	MLB RAW	Boston Red Sox	—	417	373	92	17	0	22	40	101	0	6	3	247	320	469	789	223	277	24	10	344	110	+5	+0	+6	-4	+9	1.6
2026	27	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	—	681	602	144	34	4	25	68	141	3	8	4	239	319	434	753	194	269	21	10	330	109	+7	+0	+1	-7	+15	1.6
2026	27	MLB RAW	Boston Red Sox	—	681	597	148	38	4	24	71	141	3	8	4	248	330	446	775	198	282	21	10	339	109	+7	+0	+1	-7	+15	1.6
2017	18	ROK MLE	DSL Astros Blue	—	138	123	23	3	1	0	10	35	4	7	4	187	270	228	498	41	255	25	7	225	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	19	ROK MLE	2 teams	—	188	173	27	9	0	0	13	54	0	8	4	156	216	208	424	52	215	29	7	189	14	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	20	A MLE	Quad Cities River Bandits	—	138	126	27	5	1	1	9	39	2	4	5	214	275	294	569	79	301	28	7	255	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	22	A+ MLE	Asheville Tourists	—	331	297	57	10	1	11	26	134	5	10	11	192	267	343	610	152	292	40	8	262	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	23	AA MLE	2 teams	—	648	550	114	26	0	17	89	210	4	34	4	207	324	347	671	140	292	32	14	301	90	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	24	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	448	393	95	13	1	19	51	110	1	11	2	242	331	425	756	183	283	25	11	330	109	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	25	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	—	447	401	96	29	2	15	40	125	3	8	3	239	314	434	748	195	326	28	9	333	111	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	26	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	—	417	379	90	15	0	23	35	101	0	6	3	237	303	459	762	222	277	24	8	331	110	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	27	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	—	681	605	144	34	4	25	68	141	3	8	4	238	319	431	751	193	282	21	10	330	109	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	25	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	—	447	401	96	29	2	15	40	125	3	8	3	239	314	434	748	195	326	28	9	333	111	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	26	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	—	417	379	90	15	0	23	35	101	0	6	3	237	303	459	762	222	277	24	8	331	110	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	27	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	—	681	605	144	34	4	25	68	141	3	8	4	238	319	431	751	193	282	21	10	330	109	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	28	MLB MLE	BOS	100%	601	537	133	29	3	25	57	135	2	9	2	247	322	451	774	204	283	22	9	339	116	+11	+1	+10	-6	+13	2.9
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	28	MLB CTX	BOS	100%	614	549	140	34	3	25	58	138	2	9	2	255	329	461	790	206	294	22	9	346	116	+12	+1	+10	-7	+13	3.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	29	MLB MLE	BOS	100%	614	549	135	30	3	25	58	140	2	7	2	244	319	444	764	200	281	23	9	335	113	+10	+1	+8	-7	+13	2.6
2029	30	MLB MLE	BOS	100%	614	549	132	29	3	24	58	142	2	5	2	241	315	435	750	195	278	23	9	330	110	+7	+0	+8	-7	+13	2.2
2030	31	MLB MLE	BOS	100%	603	540	127	28	2	23	56	141	2	1	1	235	309	424	733	188	274	23	9	323	105	+3	-0	+7	-6	+13	1.7
2031	32	MLB MLE	BOS	100%	580	521	119	26	2	21	53	139	1	0	1	229	302	408	710	179	268	24	9	314	98	-1	-0	+6	-6	+13	1.1
2032	33	MLB MLE	BOS	100%	506	454	101	21	2	18	46	124	1	0	0	220	292	389	681	169	260	25	9	302	91	-6	+0	+4	-5	+11	0.4
2028	29	MLB CTX	BOS	100%	614	549	138	33	3	24	58	140	2	7	2	252	326	454	780	202	293	23	9	342	113	+10	+1	+8	-7	+13	2.6
2029	30	MLB CTX	BOS	100%	614	549	135	33	2	23	58	142	2	5	2	248	322	445	766	197	290	23	9	337	110	+7	+0	+8	-7	+13	2.2
2030	31	MLB CTX	BOS	100%	603	540	131	32	2	22	56	141	2	1	1	242	316	433	749	191	285	23	9	330	105	+3	-0	+7	-6	+13	1.7
2031	32	MLB CTX	BOS	100%	580	521	123	29	2	21	53	139	1	0	1	235	308	417	725	182	278	24	9	320	98	-1	-0	+6	-6	+13	1.1
2032	33	MLB CTX	BOS	100%	506	454	103	24	1	17	46	124	1	0	0	226	298	398	696	171	270	25	9	308	91	-6	+0	+4	-5	+11	0.4
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	4547	4058	995	245	16	170	431	1076	14	38	17	245	320	439	759	194	290	24	9	334	98	+50	+1	+44	-46	+99	15.0
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	580	142	35	2	24	62	154	2	5	2	245	320	436	756	191	291	24	10	334	98	+7	+0	+6	-7	+14	2.1
Career	—	MLE		—	6984	6216	1424	308	25	247	671	1777	32	120	48	229	307	406	713	177	278	25	10	313	98	+61	+2	+54	-53	+112	18.0
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	579	133	29	2	23	62	165	3	11	4	230	307	406	713	176	278	25	10	313	98	+8	+0	+7	-7	+14	2.3

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2023 AAAWorcester Red Sox · 363 PAwOBA .398 → .320 (−77)K% 20.4% → 23.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	20.39%	÷1.023	×1.200	—	—	23.92%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	15.98%	÷0.986	×0.690	—	×1.048	11.72%
HBP% /PA	0.28%	—	×0.940	—	×1.048	0.27%
Singles /BIP	21.33%	÷0.996	×0.930	×0.953	×1.048	19.88%
Doubles /BIP	4.89%	÷1.309	×0.830	×0.953	×1.048	3.09%
Triples /BIP	0.44%	÷0.905	×0.970	×0.953	×1.048	0.48%
Home runs /BIP	9.78%	÷1.008	×0.700	—	×1.048	7.12%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 102, 1B 99, 2B 162, 3B 81, K 105, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 27.2 → +4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.953.

Result: wOBA .398 → .320; ISO .264 → .198; BABIP .290 → .248. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAPortland Sea Dogs · 579 PAwOBA .370 → .301 (−70)K% 26.4% → 32.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	26.42%	÷0.994	×1.220	—	—	32.44%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	19.69%	÷1.026	×0.700	—	×1.027	13.79%
HBP% /PA	0.69%	—	×0.850	—	×1.027	0.60%
Singles /BIP	21.38%	÷0.983	×0.970	×0.950	×1.027	20.59%
Doubles /BIP	9.54%	÷1.066	×0.860	×0.950	×1.027	7.51%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.150	×0.950	×0.950	×1.027	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	6.25%	÷1.004	×0.780	—	×1.027	4.99%

Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 101, 1B 97, 2B 113, 3B 130, K 99, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .370 → .301; ISO .188 → .151; BABIP .325 → .292. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 A+Asheville Tourists · 331 PAwOBA .369 → .262 (−107)K% 29.9% → 40.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	29.91%	÷0.995	×1.350	—	—	40.60%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	11.48%	÷1.044	×0.710	—	×1.012	7.90%
HBP% /PA	1.51%	—	×0.810	—	×1.012	1.24%
Singles /BIP	23.94%	÷0.983	×0.910	×0.950	×1.012	21.30%
Doubles /BIP	7.98%	÷1.111	×0.830	×0.950	×1.012	5.73%
Triples /BIP	0.53%	÷0.910	×0.820	×0.950	×1.012	0.46%
Home runs /BIP	8.51%	÷1.131	×0.830	—	×1.012	6.32%

Factors used: level-wide A+ factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 126, 1B 97, 2B 122, 3B 82, K 99, BB 109 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .369 → .262; ISO .226 → .149; BABIP .353 → .292. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AQuad Cities River Bandits · 138 PAwOBA .325 → .255 (−70)K% 21.0% → 28.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	21.01%	÷1.006	×1.360	—	—	28.40%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	9.42%	÷1.010	×0.690	—	×1.030	6.63%
HBP% /PA	1.45%	—	×0.780	—	×1.030	1.16%
Singles /BIP	24.73%	÷0.979	×0.920	×0.950	×1.030	22.73%
Doubles /BIP	7.53%	÷1.128	×0.830	×0.950	×1.030	5.42%
Triples /BIP	2.15%	÷1.150	×0.910	×0.950	×1.030	1.67%
Home runs /BIP	1.08%	÷0.964	×0.800	—	×1.030	0.92%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 93, 1B 96, 2B 126, 3B 130, K 101, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.0 → +3.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .325 → .255; ISO .115 → .083; BABIP .348 → .301. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 ROKGCL Astros · 160 PAwOBA .275 → .189 (−86)K% 20.0% → 28.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	20.00%	÷1.000	×1.440	—	—	28.80%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	11.25%	÷1.000	×0.620	—	×1.008	7.03%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.720	—	×1.008	0.00%
Singles /BIP	18.69%	÷1.000	×0.820	×0.950	×1.008	14.67%
Doubles /BIP	10.28%	÷1.000	×0.720	×0.950	×1.008	7.08%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.720	×0.950	×1.008	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.780	—	×1.008	0.00%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 19.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .275 → .189; ISO .079 → .052; BABIP .287 → .215. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 DSLDSL Astros Blue · 138 PAwOBA .328 → .225 (−104)K% 21.0% → 25.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	21.01%	÷1.000	×1.220	—	—	25.64%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	10.14%	÷1.000	×0.700	—	×1.008	7.15%
HBP% /PA	2.90%	—	×0.700	—	×1.008	2.04%
Singles /BIP	31.11%	÷1.000	×0.680	×1.017	×1.008	21.68%
Doubles /BIP	5.56%	÷1.000	×0.600	×1.017	×1.008	3.42%
Triples /BIP	1.11%	÷1.000	×0.600	×1.017	×1.008	0.68%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.470	—	×1.008	0.00%

Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 18.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.017.

Result: wOBA .328 → .225; ISO .059 → .036; BABIP .374 → .255. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Alex Gordonlast yr '20 AS×3GG×7SS career totals — 14 seasons, 7,250 PA	10.9	7,250	190	113	257	338	410	-58	+22	27.4	26.4
/162	664	17	10	-5.3	+2.0	2.5	pk7: 25
#2Rob Deer'84-'96 * career totals — 10 seasons, 4,512 PA	6.8	4,512	230	43	218*	322*	466*	-51	+17	16.9	16.3
/162	664	34	6	-7.4	+2.5	2.5	pk7: 16
#3Brad Wilkersonlast yr '08 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,753 PA	5.7	3,753	122	53	247	350	440	-35	-8	15.8	16.3
/162	664	22	9	-6.2	-1.4	2.8	pk7: 17
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 10 projected seasons	7.8	5,161	199	47	242	314	437	-55	+30	14.3	13.7
/162	664	26	6	-7.1	+3.9	1.8	pk7: 13
#4Marty Cordova'95-'03 * career totals — 8 seasons, 3,833 PA	5.8	3,833	122	57	262*	330*	434*	-50	+26	12.5	13.0
/162	664	21	10	-8.7	+4.5	2.2	pk7: 14
#5Adam Duvalllast yr '24 career totals — 11 seasons, 3,723 PA	5.6	3,723	195	22	227	287	459	-31	+11	11.0	11.8
/162	664	35	4	-5.5	+2.0	2.0	pk7: 13
#6Carmelo Martinez'83-'91 * career totals — 9 seasons, 3,356 PA	5.1	3,356	108	10	243*	336*	438*	-44	+21	11.9	11.7
/162	664	21	2	-8.7	+4.2	2.4	pk7: 12

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Wilyer Abreu (OGILVIE)	28	45	55	50	50	245/320/447	202	283	25	9	22%	10%	116	+2.5	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
●Travis Shaw 2018 · MLB	28	49→52	56→60	51→45	48	255/318/452	198	298	24	8	23%	8%	116	+2.5	231/321/429	198	268	26	6	24%	11%	112	+2.2	215/316/406	191	247	26	4	24%	12%	105	+1.1
✕Scott Schebler 2019 · MLB	28	46→52	56→60	44→50	47	242/311/432	191	278	24	6	23%	7%	109	+2.0	201/268/337	136	261	17	5	29%	7%	71	-0.8	164/223/270	106	233	12	4	34%	5%	37	-1.6
●Matt Joyce 2013 · MLB	28	49→52	55→60	48→50	54	251/332/444	194	289	22	9	22%	10%	118	+2.7	235/325/398	163	277	18	6	21%	11%	105	+1.7	234/345/446	212	261	26	3	21%	14%	124	+1.9
✕Gregory Polanco 2020 · MLB	28	47→57	55→60	53→55	50	244/313/440	195	285	22	12	23%	9%	111	+2.1	219/286/396	177	276	22	16	28%	8%	91	+0.7	200/268/369	169	248	23	19	29%	8%	78	-0.2
●Scott Hairston 2008 · MLB	28	48→51	57→60	52→50	49	251/316/449	198	283	24	6	21%	8%	114	+2.4	247/306/439	192	280	23	9	21%	7%	108	+1.9	241/302/425	184	271	23	10	20%	7%	105	+1.1
●Josh Reddick 2015 · MLB	28	48→58	55→60	51→50	50	251/312/443	191	278	22	8	19%	8%	111	+2.1	272/328/438	166	292	18	9	14%	8%	116	+2.5	280/336/438	158	299	17	9	13%	8%	119	+2.4
●LaMonte Wade Jr. 2022 · MLB	28	46→55	55	48→45	53	241/324/430	189	278	23	9	22%	10%	113	+2.3	244/341/416	172	282	21	5	20%	12%	116	+2.5	245/354/396	151	285	18	2	20%	13%	117	+1.8
✕Jake Lamb 2019 · MLB	28	44→54	57→60	44→45	53	233/320/431	198	276	24	6	25%	11%	112	+2.2	211/308/371	160	263	19	4	26%	11%	94	+0.9	216/303/362	146	282	18	1	28%	10%	88	+0.2
✕John Rodriguez 2006 · MLB	28	47	56→55	52→40	44	248/312/442	194	299	25	9	26%	7%	112	+2.2	243/316/405	162	306	17	5	25%	8%	104	+1.6	236/316/384	148	302	15	1	25%	8%	97	+0.5
✕Armando Rios 2001 · MLB	29	49	56→55	50→45	55	254/326/459	205	274	21	8	17%	10%	120	+2.8	251/310/408	157	287	17	6	18%	8%	102	+1.5	248/303/384	136	284	15	3	18%	7%	94	+0.3
●Max Kepler 2022 · MLB	29	42→52	59→60	52→50	55	227/314/439	212	238	26	9	19%	10%	112	+2.2	239/316/407	168	269	20	6	19%	9%	105	+1.7	244/317/403	159	278	18	2	19%	9%	105	+1.2
●Seth Smith 2011 · MLB	28	49→55	55→60	51→50	55	255/330/447	192	278	22	7	18%	10%	118	+2.7	250/318/424	174	290	18	7	20%	9%	109	+2.0	254/345/433	179	297	17	0	19%	11%	121	+2.3
✕Jake Fraley 2023 · MLB	28	47	53→55	51→55	55	241/338/410	168	298	22	15	26%	12%	113	+2.3	253/327/404	151	299	17	23	20%	9%	107	+1.9	254/325/394	139	298	15	27	19%	9%	104	+0.9
✕Daulton Varsho 2024 · MLB	28	42→50	55→60	50	48	228/293/414	187	260	24	15	23%	8%	98	+1.2	221/285/413	192	261	24	12	25%	8%	95	+0.9	215/279/403	188	251	23	11	25%	7%	91	+0.5
✕Jason Martin 2024 · MLB	28	45→52	56→60	47→50	46	237/300/428	191	296	24	9	28%	8%	103	+1.6	234/293/397	163	299	19	10	27%	7%	93	+0.8	224/284/390	166	279	20	8	27%	7%	86	+0.2
✕Jackie Bradley Jr. 2018 · MLB	28	49→57	54→55	50	50	251/324/433	183	295	21	9	23%	8%	114	+2.3	233/312/407	174	288	19	13	25%	9%	103	+1.6	227/311/402	175	284	19	14	26%	9%	102	+1.1
✕Casper Wells 2013 · MLB	28	45→44	55→60	48→50	47	232/306/425	193	286	21	8	27%	8%	105	+1.7	205/273/323	118	285	12	7	30%	8%	69	-0.9	126/186/148	22	188	0	0	30%	7%	-4	-1.1
✕Tyrone Taylor 2022 · MLB	28	48→54	56→60	53→55	46	251/316/445	194	294	23	10	23%	7%	114	+2.3	244/297/441	197	290	22	12	24%	6%	105	+1.7	239/289/432	193	287	20	14	24%	5%	101	+0.8
✕Ryan Noda 2024 · MLB	28	46→49	54→55	49→50	53	226/337/409	184	320	22	9	34%	12%	114	+2.3	189/311/337	148	284	17	8	36%	13%	88	+0.5	161/290/291	130	244	16	8	37%	13%	69	-0.7
✕Kyle Lewis 2023 · MLB	28	42→48	54→55	49→40	50	225/307/394	170	280	24	7	29%	10%	99	+1.2	251/317/419	168	321	22	5	27%	8%	107	+1.9	273/336/441	168	351	22	0	27%	8%	116	+1.5

Wilyer Abreu

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps