Wilyer Abreu — OGILVIE

Wilyer AbreuRF Boston Red Sox

Age 27 L/L 5'10" / 215 lbs MLB Svc 2.238S2 · Ctrl thru 2029 peak 2.2 · 2026

wRC+†vL 69121vR 132

AVG/OBP/SLG.243 / .316 / .449

PA447

HR20

SB5

K%26

BB%9

MLB%100%

Scouting · now → future

HIT

45→45

PWR

55→55

SPD

50→50

EYE

53↘50

trajectory · 10 yrs

1.8peak

2026

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb SUPER-2

MLB Debut 2023

Service 2.238 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2029

First FA Year 2027

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	Arb-1	$0.8M	+2.2	$18M	+$17M
2027	Arb-2	$4M	+2.2	$18M	+$14M
2028	Arb-3	$7M	+1.9	$16M	+$9M
2029	Arb-4	$9M	+1.7	$15M	+$6M
Totals		$22M		$67M	+$45M

Career Projections (MLE)

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2017	18	ROK	DSL Astros Blue	138	124	26	3	1	0	9	42	4	7	4	.210	.285	.250	.535	.040	.313	30	7	.239	41	-9	-0	+0	-1	+4	-0.7
2018	19	ROK	2 teams	188	172	26	8	0	0	13	54	0	8	4	.151	.211	.198	.408	.047	.218	29	7	.188	2	-21	+0	+0	-2	+5	-1.8
2019	20	A	Quad Cities River Bandits	138	127	27	5	1	1	9	37	2	4	5	.213	.275	.291	.567	.079	.292	27	7	.246	46	-8	-1	+0	-1	+4	-0.7
2020	21	INTL	Aguilas del Zulia	17	16	2	0	0	0	1	4	0	2	0	.125	.176	.125	.301	.000	.167	24	6	—	—	—	—	+0	-0	—	—
2021	22	A+	Asheville Tourists	331	301	55	8	1	10	24	135	5	10	11	.183	.255	.316	.570	.133	.287	41	7	.251	50	-19	-2	+0	-4	+9	-1.5
2022	23	AA	2 teams	648	548	111	25	0	19	87	220	4	34	4	.203	.316	.352	.668	.150	.289	34	13	.297	85	-11	+5	+0	-7	+18	0.6
2023	24	AAA	2 teams	448	393	95	13	1	21	50	110	1	11	2	.242	.329	.440	.769	.198	.278	25	11	.335	115	+7	+1	-0	+2	+13	2.3
2024	25	MLB	Boston Red Sox	447	399	98	29	2	16	40	125	3	8	3	.246	.319	.449	.768	.203	.312	28	9	.327	108	+4	+0	+5	-5	+13	1.8
2025	26	MLB	Boston Red Sox	417	373	90	16	0	22	40	101	0	6	3	.241	.315	.461	.776	.220	.269	24	10	.326	107	+3	+0	+6	-4	+12	1.7
▸ 2026 Season (actual · ROS · total)
2026	27	MLB	Boston Red Sox	99	91	26	4	1	3	8	19	0	0	1	.286	.343	.451	.794	.165	.333	19	8	.348	125	+3	-0	+1	-1	+3	0.5
ROS	27	MLB	BOS	348	313	79	16	1	15	31	84	1	5	2	.252	.322	.454	.775	.201	.300	24	9	.342	120	+8	+0	+3	-4	+10	1.8
TOT	27	MLB	BOS	447	404	105	20	2	18	39	103	1	5	3	.260	.327	.453	.780	.193	.305	23	9	.343	121	+11	-0	+4	-5	+13	2.2
▸ 2027+ Projections — Projections at projected PA · Park-neutral MLB equivalent · Marcel + aging curve
2027	28	MLB	BOS	444	400	101	20	2	19	40	92	1	6	2	.253	.322	.455	.777	.203	.282	21	9	.341	119	+9	+0	+3	-5	+13	2.1
2028	29	MLB	BOS	434	390	99	20	2	18	40	91	1	5	2	.254	.325	.454	.779	.200	.281	21	9	.339	117	+8	+0	+3	-5	+12	1.9
2029	30	MLB	BOS	425	382	95	19	2	17	39	90	1	4	1	.249	.320	.442	.762	.194	.280	21	9	.335	115	+7	+0	+2	-5	+12	1.7
2030	31	MLB	BOS	410	368	90	18	1	16	38	89	1	2	1	.245	.317	.429	.746	.185	.278	22	9	.332	112	+6	+0	+1	-4	+12	1.4
2031	32	MLB	BOS	391	351	85	17	1	15	36	87	1	0	0	.242	.314	.425	.739	.182	.277	22	9	.327	108	+4	+0	+0	-4	+11	1.1
2032	33	MLB	BOS	361	324	77	15	1	14	33	83	1	0	0	.238	.310	.420	.730	.182	.275	23	9	.321	104	+2	+0	-1	-4	+10	0.7
2033	34	MLB	BOS	317	285	66	13	1	11	29	75	0	0	0	.232	.303	.400	.703	.168	.273	24	9	.314	98	-1	+0	-2	-3	+9	0.3
2034	35	MLB	BOS	264	238	54	10	1	9	24	65	0	0	0	.227	.298	.391	.688	.164	.271	25	9	.306	92	-2	+0	-3	-3	+7	-0.1
2035	36	MLB	BOS	207	187	42	8	1	7	18	53	0	0	0	.225	.293	.390	.683	.166	.267	26	9	.296	85	-4	+0	-4	-2	+6	-0.4
▸ Career Totals (MLE all levels + projections)
Career	—			6373	5691	1318	263	19	230	601	1637	26	112	44	.232	.308	.406	.714	.174	.281	26	9	.312	97	-20	+5	+12	-62	+181	11.8
/ 162G	—			650	580	134	27	2	23	61	167	3	11	4	.231	.307	.403	.710	.172	.282	26	9	.312	97	-2	+1	+1	-6	+18	1.2

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2017	18	ROK	DSL Astros Blue	138	119	34	5	1	0	14	29	4	7	4	.286	.380	.345	.724	.059	.374	21	10	.334	114	+2	-0	—	—	+4	0.6
2018	19	ROK	GCL Astros	160	139	31	11	0	0	18	32	0	8	4	.223	.312	.302	.614	.079	.287	20	11	.280	72	-5	+0	—	—	+5	-0.0
2018	19	INTL	Aguilas del Zulia	28	27	7	3	0	0	1	8	0	0	0	.259	.286	.370	.656	.111	.368	29	4	.292	81	-1	+0	—	—	+1	0.0
2019	20	A	Quad Cities River Bandits	138	122	33	7	2	1	14	29	2	4	5	.270	.355	.385	.740	.115	.348	21	10	.336	115	+2	-1	—	—	+4	0.5
2020	21	INTL	Aguilas del Zulia	17	16	2	0	0	0	1	4	0	2	0	.125	.176	.125	.301	.000	.167	24	6	.148	-29	-2	+0	—	—	+0	-0.2
2021	22	A+	Asheville Tourists	331	287	77	15	1	16	38	99	5	10	11	.268	.364	.495	.858	.226	.353	30	11	.378	147	+18	-2	—	—	+9	2.5
2022	23	AA	Portland Sea Dogs	579	457	113	29	0	19	114	153	4	31	3	.247	.402	.435	.837	.188	.325	26	20	.377	146	+30	+5	—	—	+16	5.3
2022	23	INTL	Scottsdale Scorpions	69	54	9	2	0	0	10	18	0	3	1	.167	.297	.204	.501	.037	.220	26	14	.230	34	-5	+0	—	—	+2	-0.3
2023	24	MLB	Boston Red Sox	85	76	24	6	0	2	9	23	0	3	1	.316	.388	.474	.862	.158	.431	27	11	.384	152	+5	+0	-0	+2	+2	0.9
2023	24	AAA	Worcester Red Sox	363	299	82	11	1	22	59	74	1	8	1	.274	.396	.538	.934	.264	.290	20	16	.405	168	+28	+1	—	—	+10	4.0
2024	25	MLB	Boston Red Sox	447	399	101	33	2	15	40	125	3	8	3	.253	.326	.459	.784	.206	.326	28	9	.342	120	+10	+0	+5	-5	+13	2.4
2025	26	MLB	Boston Red Sox	417	373	92	17	0	22	40	101	0	6	3	.247	.320	.469	.789	.223	.277	24	10	.344	121	+10	+0	+6	-4	+12	2.4
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			949	848	217	56	2	39	89	249	3	17	7	.256	.329	.465	.793	.209	.313	26	9	.347	124	+25	+1	+11	-8	+27	5.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Wilyer Abreu (OGILVIE)	27	45	55	50	50	.252/.322/.451	.199	.282	19	6	20%	9%	120	+2.3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Gregory Polanco 2019 · MLB	27	48→55	57→60	52→55	53	.252/.323/.457	.205	.279	23	14	20%	9%	121	+3.2	.231/.303/.419	.188	.284	23	14	26%	9%	102	+1.9	.210/.280/.379	.169	.266	22	17	29%	8%	77	+0.1
✕Jake Lamb 2018 · MLB	27	47→54	57→60	48→45	56	.246/.338/.453	.208	.295	24	6	25%	12%	126	+3.5	.225/.324/.403	.178	.279	20	5	25%	12%	108	+2.3	.224/.314/.381	.158	.293	20	1	29%	10%	95	+0.8
✕John Rodriguez 2006 · MLB	28	48→47	56→55	52→40	45	.249/.317/.443	.194	.301	25	10	26%	7%	115	+2.8	.247/.321/.412	.165	.311	18	6	25%	8%	108	+2.3	.239/.321/.389	.150	.307	15	1	25%	9%	99	+0.7
●Jay Bruce 2014 · MLB	27	48→55	59→65	45→50	51	.253/.327/.469	.216	.301	26	8	25%	10%	126	+3.5	.237/.304/.433	.196	.284	23	9	25%	9%	107	+2.2	.243/.311/.484	.240	.266	31	5	22%	9%	115	+2.8
✕Scott Schebler 2018 · MLB	27	45→52	56→60	48→50	43	.238/.299/.432	.195	.275	24	8	24%	6%	105	+2.1	.223/.296/.382	.159	.269	20	5	25%	8%	91	+1.1	.191/.264/.317	.126	.251	16	4	30%	7%	57	-0.8
●Scott Hairston 2007 · MLB	27	47→51	56→60	49→50	46	.249/.307/.442	.192	.289	25	6	23%	7%	110	+2.4	.249/.310/.449	.200	.284	24	7	21%	8%	113	+2.6	.250/.308/.455	.205	.279	24	9	20%	7%	112	+1.6
✕Austin Meadows 2022 · MLB	27	47→56	61→65	45→55	52	.251/.329/.480	.229	.281	28	8	22%	10%	129	+3.7	.233/.312/.389	.156	.265	17	6	18%	9%	98	+1.6	.221/.313/.301	.080	.257	3	0	14%	10%	76	+0.0
✕Ike Davis 2014 · MLB	27	43→53	58→60	45→40	56	.232/.325/.436	.203	.272	26	4	25%	12%	117	+2.9	.227/.318/.385	.158	.273	18	3	22%	12%	100	+1.7	.219/.307/.356	.137	.265	15	0	22%	11%	85	+0.4
●Vinnie Pasquantino 2023 · MLB	25	48→49	57→60	50→40	55	.253/.328/.453	.199	.261	25	5	15%	9%	121	+3.2	.252/.320/.443	.191	.261	23	3	14%	8%	116	+2.8	.253/.317/.449	.195	.259	25	1	14%	8%	111	+2.1
✕Jordan Luplow 2021 · MLB	27	48→47	54→65	47→50	54	.244/.326/.431	.187	.285	20	9	22%	10%	115	+2.8	.219/.314/.430	.211	.254	27	8	25%	11%	111	+2.5	.196/.295/.398	.202	.217	28	7	25%	11%	90	+0.5
✕DJ Stewart 2021 · MLB	27	42→48	54→60	44→50	50	.224/.307/.403	.178	.267	22	9	25%	9%	101	+1.8	.224/.325/.409	.185	.279	24	5	28%	11%	110	+2.4	.212/.318/.409	.197	.253	28	2	28%	11%	104	+0.9
●Ian Happ 2022 · MLB	27	42→52	58→60	47→50	52	.225/.317/.427	.202	.281	26	9	29%	11%	111	+2.5	.249/.339/.436	.187	.309	20	10	25%	11%	122	+3.3	.246/.351/.433	.188	.299	21	10	23%	13%	122	+3.7
●Matt Joyce 2012 · MLB	27	50→56	54→60	50	54	.254/.336/.447	.193	.299	20	12	22%	10%	123	+3.3	.253/.343/.434	.181	.298	20	8	21%	11%	123	+3.3	.245/.344/.413	.168	.290	18	5	21%	12%	109	+1.9
●Josh Reddick 2014 · MLB	27	44→54	55→60	51→50	51	.235/.304/.426	.190	.262	23	10	21%	9%	105	+2.1	.260/.321/.439	.179	.283	21	9	16%	8%	115	+2.7	.283/.343/.446	.162	.302	18	9	13%	8%	122	+2.9
✕Chris Duncan 2008 · MLB	27	48→50	58→60	41→40	51	.250/.326/.452	.202	.307	27	3	27%	10%	121	+3.2	.231/.315/.380	.149	.288	17	4	24%	11%	98	+1.6	.202/.286/.307	.105	.254	11	3	24%	10%	63	-0.4
●Andy Tracy 2001 · MLB	27	50→48	58→55	50→45	50	.258/.335/.464	.206	.319	27	7	27%	10%	128	+3.6	.233/.309/.412	.179	.311	22	8	31%	9%	103	+1.9	.233/.303/.420	.187	.276	24	5	25%	8%	104	+1.7
✕Rowdy Tellez 2022 · MLB	27	47→50	58→60	42→45	48	.252/.318/.459	.208	.287	27	3	23%	8%	120	+3.1	.225/.300/.415	.190	.248	26	3	21%	9%	101	+1.8	.222/.284/.391	.169	.257	24	1	24%	8%	84	+0.4
●LaMonte Wade Jr. 2022 · MLB	28	45→54	53→55	48→45	53	.232/.318/.404	.172	.266	20	9	22%	10%	105	+2.1	.241/.339/.409	.168	.280	20	5	21%	12%	115	+2.8	.244/.359/.388	.144	.287	17	2	20%	14%	115	+1.9
●Eddie Rosario 2019 · MLB	27	53→55	54→60	45→50	44	.274/.311/.452	.178	.307	22	9	19%	5%	115	+2.7	.268/.306/.469	.201	.280	28	8	16%	5%	118	+3.0	.258/.298/.465	.207	.259	30	8	15%	5%	110	+1.7
●Lars Nootbaar 2023 · MLB	25	45→53	56→55	48→50	56	.236/.325/.429	.194	.271	23	9	22%	11%	115	+2.7	.243/.339/.413	.170	.287	19	10	21%	12%	116	+2.8	.242/.341/.394	.152	.286	17	8	20%	13%	107	+1.9

Contract

Career Projections (MLE) Show advanced cols

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Career Path Comps

Career Projections (MLE)