Ryan Noda

1B Norfolk Tides

Age 31 L/L 6'1" / 217 lbs AAA HR +9% Svc 4.000 · Ctrl thru 2028

Overview

AAAArb-2FA 2029

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2024	28	AAAOAK	447	.224/.393/.486	22	5	85	—	.176/.308/.358
2024	28	MLBOakland Athle…	111	.137/.255/.211	1	0	39	-1.6
2025	29	AAABAL	291	.188/.413/.361	10	6	74	—	.150/.312/.275
2025	29	MLBBAL	59	.106/.276/.170	1	1	22	-1.1
2026	30	AAABAL	352	.222/.365/.387	11	7	62	—	.179/.290/.299
2027PROJ10% MLB	31	MLBBAL	24	.191/.307/.335	1	0	82	-0.0
2028PROJ27% MLB	32	MLBBAL	68	.185/.299/.319	2	1	76	-0.2

Last 3 seasons WAR -2.7 · Next 2 projected WAR -0.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2028Service4.000First FA2029

2027Arb-2$0.4M2028Arb-3$0.7M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2023-2025

Barrel%71

Avg EV66

Bat Spd60

xwOBA54

Speed17

CompsYoshi Tsutsugo (age 31) · Daniel Palka (age 31) · Michael Pérez (age 31)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†82

AVG/OBP/SLG.191 / .307 / .335

PA24

HR1

K%33

BB%12

BABIP270

ISO200

MLB%10%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$1M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 20 / POW 45

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2023-2025

CONTACT20

xAVG

100.193

POWER45

Barrel%

7111.3

Avg EV

6690.2

Bat Spd

6072.4

EYE60

scouting grade only

SPEED40

Sprint

1725.9

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Arb-2

MLB Debut 2023

Service 4.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2028

First FA Year 2029

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Arb-2	$0.4M	—	—	—
2028	Arb-3	$0.7M	—	—	—
Totals		$0.0M		$-0.9M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2017	21	ROK	Bluefield Blue Jays	—	276	214	78	18	3	7	59	60	3	7	4	364	507	575	1.082	210	483	22	21	475	124	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	22	A	Lansing Lugnuts	—	527	403	103	24	4	20	109	135	10	14	4	256	425	484	909	228	328	26	21	402	89	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	23	A+	Dunedin Blue Jays	—	469	378	90	27	1	13	74	138	10	14	2	238	377	418	795	180	330	29	16	355	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	25	AA	Tulsa Drillers	—	475	384	96	15	1	29	74	127	12	3	1	250	387	521	908	271	288	27	16	395	96	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	26	AAA	Oklahoma City Dodgers	—	574	464	120	23	1	25	92	162	15	20	4	259	398	474	872	216	339	28	16	388	92	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	27	MLB	Oakland Athletics	—	495	406	93	22	1	16	77	170	10	3	1	229	365	406	772	177	347	34	16	350	125	+15	+0	-6	-9	+11	1.1
2023	27	AAA	Las Vegas Aviators	—	18	10	4	2	0	2	8	3	0	0	0	400	667	1.200	1.867	800	400	17	44	684	275	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	28	MLB	Oakland Athletics	—	111	95	13	4	0	1	14	37	1	0	0	137	255	211	465	74	211	33	13	225	39	-8	+0	-0	-10	+2	-1.6
2024	28	AAA	Las Vegas Aviators	—	447	348	78	21	2	22	89	134	8	5	1	224	393	486	879	261	289	30	20	389	85	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	29	MLB	Baltimore Orioles	—	59	47	5	0	0	1	11	25	0	1	0	106	276	170	446	64	190	42	19	227	22	-5	+0	-0	-6	+1	-1.1
2025	29	AAA	Norfolk Tides	—	291	208	39	6	0	10	66	94	14	6	1	188	413	361	774	173	271	32	23	363	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	30	AAA	Norfolk Tides	—	352	284	63	12	1	11	53	108	11	7	1	222	365	387	752	165	313	31	15	342	62	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	665	548	111	26	1	18	102	232	11	4	1	203	339	352	691	150	310	35	15	318	101	+1	+0	-7	-25	+14	-1.7
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2017	21	ROK MLE	Bluefield Blue Jays	—	276	238	65	14	2	6	35	85	3	7	4	273	373	424	798	151	401	31	13	351	124	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	22	A MLE	Lansing Lugnuts	—	527	439	83	18	3	15	73	186	10	14	4	189	318	346	664	157	274	35	14	300	89	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	23	A+ MLE	Dunedin Blue Jays	—	469	399	65	21	1	8	53	203	10	14	2	163	277	281	558	118	282	43	11	256	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	25	AA MLE	Tulsa Drillers	—	475	411	82	12	1	24	47	161	12	3	1	200	300	409	709	209	246	34	10	310	96	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	26	AAA MLE	Oklahoma City Dodgers	—	574	497	105	20	1	18	59	193	15	20	4	211	313	364	678	153	299	34	10	304	92	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	27	MLB MLE	Oakland Athletics	—	495	407	94	21	1	18	76	170	10	3	1	231	365	420	785	189	347	34	15	354	125	+15	+0	-6	-9	+11	1.1
2023	27	AAA MLE	Las Vegas Aviators	—	18	13	4	2	0	2	5	4	0	0	0	308	500	923	1.423	615	265	22	28	574	275	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	28	MLB MLE	Oakland Athletics	—	111	95	13	4	0	1	14	37	1	0	0	137	255	211	465	74	211	33	13	226	39	-8	+0	-0	-10	+2	-1.6
2024	28	AAA MLE	Las Vegas Aviators	—	447	374	66	16	2	16	63	157	8	5	1	176	308	358	666	182	240	35	14	294	85	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	29	MLB MLE	Baltimore Orioles	—	59	49	5	0	0	1	9	25	0	1	0	102	241	163	405	61	190	42	15	201	22	-5	+0	-0	-6	+1	-1.1
2025	29	AAA MLE	Norfolk Tides	—	291	233	35	5	0	8	41	117	14	6	1	150	312	275	587	124	238	40	14	277	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	30	AAA MLE	Norfolk Tides	—	352	301	54	10	1	8	36	130	11	7	1	179	290	299	589	120	268	37	10	260	62	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	21	ROK MLE	Bluefield Blue Jays	—	276	238	65	14	2	6	35	85	3	7	4	273	373	424	798	151	401	31	13	351	124	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	21	ROK RAW	Bluefield Blue Jays	—	276	214	78	18	3	7	59	60	3	7	4	364	507	575	1.082	210	483	22	21	475	124	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	22	A MLE	Lansing Lugnuts	—	527	439	83	18	3	15	73	186	10	14	4	189	318	346	664	157	280	35	14	300	89	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	22	A RAW	Lansing Lugnuts	—	527	403	103	24	4	20	109	135	10	14	4	256	425	484	909	228	328	26	21	402	89	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	23	A+ MLE	Dunedin Blue Jays	—	469	399	65	21	1	8	53	203	10	14	2	163	277	281	558	118	294	43	11	256	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	23	A+ RAW	Dunedin Blue Jays	—	469	378	90	27	1	13	74	138	10	14	2	238	377	418	795	180	330	29	16	355	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	25	AA MLE	Tulsa Drillers	—	475	411	82	12	1	24	47	161	12	3	1	200	300	409	709	209	251	34	10	310	96	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	25	AA RAW	Tulsa Drillers	—	475	384	96	15	1	29	74	127	12	3	1	250	387	521	908	271	288	27	16	395	96	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	26	AAA MLE	Oklahoma City Dodgers	—	574	497	105	20	1	18	59	193	15	20	4	211	313	364	678	153	301	34	10	304	92	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	26	AAA RAW	Oklahoma City Dodgers	—	574	464	120	23	1	25	92	162	15	20	4	259	398	474	872	216	339	28	16	388	92	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	27	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	513	420	98	23	1	20	81	174	10	3	1	233	370	436	806	202	342	34	16	361	131	+19	+0	-6	-9	+11	1.5
2023	27	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	513	416	97	24	1	18	85	173	10	3	1	233	376	425	801	192	348	34	17	361	131	+19	+0	-6	-9	+11	1.5
2024	28	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	558	469	79	20	2	17	77	194	9	5	1	168	297	328	626	160	238	35	14	280	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	28	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	558	443	91	25	2	23	103	171	9	5	1	205	366	427	792	221	271	31	18	356	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	29	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	350	282	40	5	0	9	50	142	14	7	1	142	301	255	556	113	231	41	14	264	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	29	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	350	255	44	6	0	11	77	119	14	7	1	173	390	325	716	153	258	34	22	340	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	30	AAA MLE	Norfolk Tides	—	352	301	54	10	1	8	36	130	11	7	1	179	290	299	589	120	280	37	10	260	62	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	30	AAA RAW	Norfolk Tides	—	352	284	63	12	1	11	53	108	11	7	1	222	365	387	752	165	313	31	15	342	62	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	21	ROK MLE	Bluefield Blue Jays	—	276	236	65	14	2	6	35	85	3	7	4	275	373	428	801	153	401	31	13	351	124	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	22	A MLE	Lansing Lugnuts	—	527	439	83	18	3	15	73	186	10	14	4	189	318	346	664	157	274	35	14	300	89	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	23	A+ MLE	Dunedin Blue Jays	—	469	403	65	21	1	8	53	203	10	14	2	161	277	278	555	117	282	43	11	256	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	25	AA MLE	Tulsa Drillers	—	475	413	82	12	1	24	47	161	12	3	1	199	300	407	707	208	246	34	10	310	96	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	26	AAA MLE	Oklahoma City Dodgers	—	574	495	105	20	1	18	59	193	15	20	4	212	313	366	679	154	299	34	10	304	92	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	27	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	513	417	98	23	1	20	81	174	10	3	1	235	370	439	809	204	344	34	16	361	131	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	28	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	558	467	79	20	2	17	77	194	9	5	1	169	297	330	627	161	234	35	14	280	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	29	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	350	283	40	5	0	9	50	142	14	7	1	141	301	254	555	113	230	41	14	264	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	30	AAA MLE	Norfolk Tides	—	352	302	54	10	1	8	36	130	11	7	1	179	290	298	588	119	268	37	10	260	62	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	28	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	558	467	79	20	2	17	77	194	9	5	1	169	297	330	627	161	234	35	14	280	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	29	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	350	283	40	5	0	9	50	142	14	7	1	141	301	254	555	113	230	41	14	264	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	30	AAA MLE	Norfolk Tides	—	352	302	54	10	1	8	36	130	11	7	1	179	290	298	588	119	268	37	10	260	62	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	31	MLB MLE	BAL	10%	380	323	60	11	1	10	45	126	9	6	2	188	304	326	630	138	266	33	12	290	82	-8	+0	+1	-7	+8	-0.3
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	31	MLB CTX	BAL	10%	24	20	4	1	0	1	3	8	1	0	0	191	307	335	641	143	270	33	12	294	82	-1	+0	+0	-0	+1	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	32	MLB MLE	BAL	27%	250	213	39	7	1	6	29	84	6	2	1	181	297	310	607	129	259	34	12	281	76	-7	+0	-3	-4	+5	-0.9
2028	32	MLB CTX	BAL	27%	68	58	11	2	0	2	8	23	2	1	0	185	299	319	618	134	263	34	12	285	76	-2	+0	-1	-1	+1	-0.2
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	733	606	122	28	1	20	110	255	13	5	1	201	336	350	686	149	306	35	15	315	87	-1	+1	-8	-27	+16	-1.9
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	537	109	25	1	18	98	226	12	4	1	203	339	354	693	151	308	35	15	315	87	-1	+1	-7	-24	+14	-1.7
Career	—	MLE		—	4582	3871	748	157	14	137	568	1631	106	86	21	193	313	347	660	154	287	36	12	297	87	-11	+1	-10	-34	+25	-3.0
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	549	105	22	2	19	81	231	15	12	3	191	312	342	654	151	284	36	12	297	87	-6	+0	-5	-19	+14	-1.7

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAANorfolk Tides · 352 PAwOBA .334 → .260 (−75)K% 30.7% → 36.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	30.68%	÷1.000	×1.200	—	—	36.82%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	15.06%	÷1.000	×0.690	—	×0.972	10.10%
HBP% /PA	3.12%	—	×0.940	—	×0.972	2.86%
Singles /BIP	22.16%	÷1.000	×0.930	×0.990	×0.972	19.82%
Doubles /BIP	6.82%	÷1.000	×0.830	×0.990	×0.972	5.44%
Triples /BIP	0.57%	÷1.000	×0.970	×0.990	×0.972	0.53%
Home runs /BIP	6.25%	÷1.000	×0.700	—	×0.972	4.25%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 30 vs a level average of 27.2 → −2.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.990.

Result: wOBA .334 → .260; ISO .165 → .120; BABIP .313 → .268. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAANorfolk Tides · 291 PAwOBA .357 → .277 (−80)K% 32.3% → 40.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	32.30%	÷0.967	×1.200	—	—	40.08%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	21.99%	÷1.063	×0.690	—	×0.982	14.02%
HBP% /PA	4.81%	—	×0.940	—	×0.982	4.44%
Singles /BIP	20.18%	÷0.959	×0.930	×0.971	×0.982	18.65%
Doubles /BIP	5.26%	÷0.978	×0.830	×0.971	×0.982	4.26%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.900	×0.970	×0.971	×0.982	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	8.77%	÷0.945	×0.700	—	×0.982	6.38%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 89, 1B 92, 2B 96, 3B 80, K 93, BB 113 — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 27.2 → −1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.971.

Result: wOBA .357 → .277; ISO .173 → .136; BABIP .271 → .238. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAALas Vegas Aviators · 447 PAwOBA .380 → .294 (−86)K% 30.0% → 35.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	29.98%	÷1.022	×1.200	—	—	35.20%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	19.69%	÷0.952	×0.690	—	×0.992	14.15%
HBP% /PA	1.79%	—	×0.940	—	×0.992	1.67%
Singles /BIP	15.42%	÷0.974	×0.930	×0.986	×0.992	14.41%
Doubles /BIP	9.81%	÷1.088	×0.830	×0.986	×0.992	7.32%
Triples /BIP	0.93%	÷1.150	×0.970	×0.986	×0.992	0.77%
Home runs /BIP	10.28%	÷1.001	×0.700	—	×0.992	7.13%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 100, 1B 95, 2B 118, 3B 130, K 104, BB 90 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.986.

Result: wOBA .380 → .294; ISO .261 → .190; BABIP .289 → .240. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAALas Vegas Aviators · 18 PAwOBA .666 → .574 (−93)K% 16.7% → 19.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	16.67%	÷1.017	×1.200	—	—	19.66%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	38.89%	÷1.055	×0.690	—	×1.003	25.52%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.940	—	×1.003	0.00%
Singles /BIP	0.00%	÷0.993	×0.930	—	×1.003	0.00%
Doubles /BIP	28.57%	÷1.124	×0.830	—	×1.003	21.17%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.133	×0.970	—	×1.003	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	28.57%	÷0.996	×0.700	—	×1.003	20.15%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 99, 1B 99, 2B 125, 3B 127, K 103, BB 111 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .666 → .574; ISO .800 → .805; BABIP .400 → .265. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAAOklahoma City Dodgers · 574 PAwOBA .379 → .304 (−76)K% 28.2% → 33.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	28.22%	÷1.009	×1.200	—	—	33.56%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	15.68%	÷1.073	×0.690	—	×1.018	10.27%
HBP% /PA	2.61%	—	×0.940	—	×1.018	2.50%
Singles /BIP	23.51%	÷1.027	×0.930	×0.988	×1.018	21.42%
Doubles /BIP	7.62%	÷0.958	×0.830	×0.988	×1.018	6.64%
Triples /BIP	0.33%	÷0.955	×0.970	×0.988	×1.018	0.34%
Home runs /BIP	8.28%	÷0.997	×0.700	—	×1.018	5.92%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 99, 1B 105, 2B 92, 3B 91, K 102, BB 115 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.988.

Result: wOBA .379 → .304; ISO .216 → .166; BABIP .339 → .299. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AATulsa Drillers · 475 PAwOBA .388 → .310 (−78)K% 26.7% → 33.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	26.74%	÷0.966	×1.220	—	—	33.75%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	15.16%	÷1.051	×0.690	—	×0.998	9.94%
HBP% /PA	2.53%	—	×0.850	—	×0.998	2.14%
Singles /BIP	19.84%	÷1.030	×0.940	×0.973	×0.998	17.57%
Doubles /BIP	5.84%	÷1.026	×0.870	×0.973	×0.998	4.80%
Triples /BIP	0.39%	÷0.900	×0.920	×0.973	×0.998	0.39%
Home runs /BIP	11.28%	÷0.935	×0.780	—	×0.998	9.40%

Factors used: level-wide AA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 87, 1B 106, 2B 105, 3B 80, K 93, BB 110 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.973.

Result: wOBA .388 → .310; ISO .271 → .226; BABIP .288 → .246. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 A+Dunedin Blue Jays · 469 PAwOBA .349 → .256 (−93)K% 29.4% → 43.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	29.42%	÷0.966	×1.420	—	—	43.25%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	15.14%	÷0.993	×0.750	—	×0.998	11.41%
HBP% /PA	2.13%	—	×0.930	—	×0.998	1.98%
Singles /BIP	20.42%	÷1.029	×0.920	×0.950	×0.998	17.31%
Doubles /BIP	11.25%	÷0.992	×0.960	×0.950	×0.998	10.32%
Triples /BIP	0.42%	÷1.150	×0.810	×0.950	×0.998	0.28%
Home runs /BIP	5.42%	÷1.194	×0.880	—	×0.998	3.99%

Factors used: league row FSL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 139, 1B 106, 2B 98, 3B 130, K 93, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .349 → .256; ISO .180 → .123; BABIP .330 → .282. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 ALansing Lugnuts · 527 PAwOBA .395 → .300 (−95)K% 25.6% → 35.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	25.62%	÷0.989	×1.360	—	—	35.24%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	20.11%	÷0.995	×0.690	—	—	13.95%
HBP% /PA	1.90%	—	×0.780	—	—	1.48%
Singles /BIP	20.52%	÷1.018	×0.920	×0.980	—	18.17%
Doubles /BIP	8.96%	÷1.033	×0.830	×0.980	—	7.05%
Triples /BIP	1.49%	÷1.150	×0.910	×0.980	—	1.16%
Home runs /BIP	7.46%	÷1.034	×0.800	—	—	5.77%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 107, 1B 104, 2B 107, 3B 130, K 98, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.0 → +0.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.980.

Result: wOBA .395 → .300; ISO .228 → .172; BABIP .328 → .274. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Daniel Vogelbachlast yr '24 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,913 PA	2.9	1,913	81	0	220	342	411	-29	-16	4.4	4.4
/162	664	28	0	-10.2	-5.6	1.5	pk7: 4
#2Ricky Ledee'98-'07 * career totals — 9 seasons, 2,307 PA	3.5	2,307	63	29	233*	311*	398*	-19	-6	2.4	3.1
/162	664	18	8	-5.5	-1.8	0.7	pk7: 4
#3Dan Johnson'05-'15 * career totals — 5 seasons, 1,625 PA	2.4	1,625	57	1	226*	330*	401*	-30	-3	2.2	2.8
/162	664	23	0	-12.2	-1.2	0.9	pk7: 3
#4Norm Miller'65-'74 * career totals — 6 seasons, 1,561 PA	2.4	1,561	24	16	238*	325*	391*	-14	-3	2.4	2.7
/162	664	10	7	-6.1	-1.3	1.0	pk7: 3
#5Connor Joelast yr '25 career totals — 5 seasons, 1,646 PA	2.5	1,646	35	13	241	335	387	-21	-16	1.9	1.9
/162	664	14	5	-8.3	-6.6	0.7	pk7: 2
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 3 projected seasons	1.1	757	20	5	201	332	350	-14	-11	0.5	0.6
/162	664	18	4	-11.9	-9.5	0.5	pk7: 1
#6Eric Anthony'89-'97 * career totals — 9 seasons, 2,243 PA	3.4	2,243	78	24	225*	300*	410*	-22	-22	0.1	0.6
/162	664	23	7	-6.7	-6.6	0.0	pk7: 1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Ryan Noda (OGILVIE)	31	20	45	40	60	186/301/323	137	266	6	4	33%	12%	82	+0.0	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Yoshi Tsutsugo 2023 · MLB	31	42→41	49→50	39→30	52	216/299/359	143	271	18	2	27%	10%	87	+0.4	224/310/364	140	307	16	7	30%	11%	93	+0.8	208/312/349	140	296	16	5	32%	12%	87	+0.2
✕Daniel Palka 2023 · AAA	31	42→43	51→55	44→50	45	219/280/375	156	275	20	4	28%	8%	84	+0.1	211/266/349	138	275	17	6	29%	7%	72	-0.7	185/238/306	121	238	16	4	29%	6%	49	-1.7
✕Michael Pérez 2024 · MLB	31	33	47→50	45→40	46	180/252/303	123	227	16	4	29%	8%	57	-1.8	205/274/328	123	274	14	5	29%	7%	71	-0.8	182/256/298	116	243	13	0	29%	7%	55	-0.8
✕Matt Skole 2019 · AAA	30	37→40	47→50	46→40	44	194/259/328	134	252	15	4	29%	8%	65	-1.2	204/280/343	139	282	16	5	32%	9%	77	-0.3	186/273/327	141	252	19	0	33%	10%	71	-0.6
✕Ryan Langerhans 2013 · MLB	33	40→41	48→50	45→50	50	202/294/346	144	291	16	11	34%	11%	83	+0.1	209/286/357	148	299	17	8	33%	9%	82	-0.0	184/263/338	154	248	20	2	34%	9%	66	-0.5
✕Jon Singleton 2023 · AAA	31	36→46	50	47→45	53	188/290/338	150	264	18	5	34%	13%	80	-0.2	207/295/364	157	266	20	3	29%	11%	87	+0.4	197/286/348	151	245	20	1	28%	11%	79	-0.2
✕Jason Conti 2006 · MLB	31	42→40	45	44→50	40	210/259/331	121	279	13	6	29%	6%	65	-1.2	217/267/328	111	286	11	8	27%	6%	68	-1.0	205/249/275	71	267	7	5	25%	5%	47	-0.8
✕Graham Koonce 2006 · AAA	31	42→40	53→55	43→30	45	224/287/395	171	272	22	3	27%	7%	91	+0.7	208/281/381	173	260	22	4	29%	8%	86	+0.3	183/264/359	175	222	23	2	29%	9%	74	-0.3
✕Baltazar Lopez 2015 · AAA	31	46	50	42→45	40	231/283/380	149	305	18	5	30%	6%	86	+0.3	218/279/314	96	342	9	7	36%	7%	69	-0.9	201/270/244	43	352	4	2	40%	7%	51	-0.4
✕Joe Borchard 2010 · MLB	31	39→43	49→55	45	40	205/254/353	148	266	17	6	30%	6%	69	-0.9	214/265/357	143	286	15	5	30%	6%	74	-0.6	209/260/353	144	278	15	2	30%	6%	70	-0.7
✕Carlos Ibarra 2015 · AAA	31	43	44→50	38→40	39	217/255/329	112	275	13	4	26%	4%	63	-1.4	212/251/299	87	264	8	5	22%	5%	54	-2.0	203/236/260	56	248	4	0	19%	3%	38	-0.9
✕Brad Nelson 2014 · AAA	31	41→50	50	45→50	46	217/275/364	147	262	18	4	25%	7%	80	-0.2	210/264/329	119	254	13	6	23%	6%	67	-1.1	180/229/262	82	212	9	0	20%	6%	38	-1.4
✕Mike Costanzo 2014 · MLB	30	41→50	46→50	40	43	208/268/341	133	284	14	4	31%	7%	71	-0.8	207/265/334	127	304	14	7	34%	7%	68	-1.0	151/205/242	91	238	13	0	41%	6%	25	-1.0
✕Brett Carroll 2013 · MLB	30	42→46	47→55	47→50	43	212/274/346	134	270	15	11	27%	6%	74	-0.5	204/269/335	131	275	16	10	30%	7%	70	-0.8	176/254/321	145	220	21	11	30%	8%	59	-0.9
●Mike Ford 2023 · MLB	31	38→48	46→55	47→30	50	196/279/322	126	246	14	3	26%	10%	72	-0.7	223/302/392	169	270	22	4	25%	9%	96	+1.0	216/297/392	177	256	24	2	26%	9%	92	+0.4
✕Valentino Pascucci 2010 · AAA	31	40→42	51→55	48→45	48	211/290/369	159	273	20	5	30%	9%	86	+0.3	208/288/370	162	288	20	3	33%	10%	86	+0.3	194/280/355	161	272	21	0	35%	10%	77	-0.2
✕Anthony Bemboom 2021 · MLB	31	40	46→40	41→45	45	204/270/328	124	257	14	5	26%	7%	70	-0.9	205/274/322	117	264	12	5	26%	8%	69	-0.9	193/262/294	101	249	10	2	26%	8%	56	-0.6
✕Ryan Fitzgerald 2024 · AAA	30	38→48	48→50	46→45	42	198/260/344	146	262	14	9	30%	7%	69	-0.9	216/277/347	131	281	13	9	27%	7%	76	-0.4	227/285/352	125	285	12	9	24%	6%	78	-0.2
✕Josh Lester 2024 · MLB	30	37→44	51→55	47→40	38	203/247/362	159	257	20	5	30%	5%	69	-0.9	210/258/360	150	259	19	6	26%	6%	72	-0.7	195/243/346	151	226	20	2	24%	6%	62	-1.1
✕Cody Ransom 2007 · MLB	31	38→39	49→55	46→50	41	200/260/342	142	271	17	7	32%	7%	69	-0.9	204/268/369	165	259	20	12	29%	7%	78	-0.3	206/286/402	196	277	25	6	34%	9%	92	+0.4

Ryan Noda

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps