Ryan Noda — OGILVIE

Ryan Noda1B Norfolk Tides

Age 30 L/L 6'1" / 217 lbs AAA HR +8% Svc 3.000 · Ctrl thru 2028

2026 ROS PROJECTION191 act + 159 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†95

AVG/OBP/SLG.209 / .329 / .358

PA159

HR5

K%35

BB%13

BABIP311

ISO149

MLB%10%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · ContractCON 20 / POW 45

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2023-2025

CONTACT20

Whiff%

1614.8%

xwOBA

540.313

POWER45

Barrel%

7111.3

Avg EV

6690.2

Bat Spd

6072.4

EYE60

Chase%

9022.3%

SPEED40

Sprint

1725.9

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Arb-1

MLB Debut 2023

Service 3.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2028

First FA Year 2029

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Arb-1	$0.1M	+0.0	$0.0M	+$0.0M (cut)
2027	Arb-2	$0.4M	—	—	—
2028	Arb-3	$0.7M	—	—	—
Totals		$0.0M		$-2M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2017	21	ROK	Bluefield Blue Jays	—	276	238	66	14	2	6	35	85	3	7	4	277	377	429	805	151	408	31	13	356	131	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	21	ROK	Bluefield Blue Jays	—	276	214	78	18	3	7	59	60	3	7	4	364	507	575	1.082	210	483	22	21	475	222	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	22	A	Lansing Lugnuts	—	527	438	81	18	3	14	74	188	10	14	4	185	316	336	652	151	278	36	14	293	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	22	A	Lansing Lugnuts	—	527	403	103	24	4	20	109	135	10	14	4	256	425	484	909	228	328	26	21	402	166	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	23	A+	Dunedin Blue Jays	—	469	398	60	20	0	7	54	210	10	14	2	151	268	254	522	103	283	45	12	245	46	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	23	A+	Dunedin Blue Jays	—	469	378	90	27	1	13	74	138	10	14	2	238	377	418	795	180	330	29	16	355	130	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	25	AA	Tulsa Drillers	—	475	413	83	11	1	29	45	176	12	3	1	201	298	443	741	242	254	37	9	320	103	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	25	AA	Tulsa Drillers	—	475	384	96	15	1	29	74	127	12	3	1	250	387	521	908	271	288	27	16	395	161	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	26	AAA	Oklahoma City Dodgers	—	574	500	99	20	1	19	56	205	15	20	4	198	298	356	654	158	287	36	10	292	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	26	AAA	Oklahoma City Dodgers	—	574	464	120	23	1	25	92	162	15	20	4	259	398	474	872	216	339	28	16	388	155	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	27	MLB	2 teams	—	513	420	100	25	1	19	81	174	10	3	1	238	374	438	812	200	354	34	16	358	132	+19	+0	-6	-9	+15	1.9
2023	27	MLB	2 teams	—	513	416	97	24	1	18	85	173	10	3	1	233	376	425	801	192	348	34	17	361	135	+20	+0	-6	-9	+15	2.0
2024	28	AAA	2 teams	—	558	463	74	18	1	17	83	202	9	5	1	160	299	313	612	153	232	36	15	281	73	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	28	AAA	2 teams	—	558	443	91	25	2	23	103	171	9	5	1	205	366	427	792	221	271	31	18	356	131	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	29	AAA	2 teams	—	350	282	43	5	0	11	50	146	14	7	1	152	309	287	596	135	250	42	14	275	69	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	29	AAA	2 teams	—	350	255	44	6	0	11	77	119	14	7	1	173	390	325	716	153	258	34	22	340	118	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	30	AAA	BAL	—	191	164	38	5	0	5	18	71	6	6	1	232	330	354	683	122	375	37	9	301	89	-2	+1	+0	-3	+5	0.0
YTD	30	AAA	BAL	—	191	156	42	6	0	6	26	59	6	6	1	269	394	423	817	154	396	31	14	366	138	+8	+1	+0	-3	+5	1.1
ROS	30	AAA	BAL	10%	159	134	28	5	0	5	20	56	4	3	1	209	329	358	687	149	302	35	13	309	95	-1	+0	+0	-3	+5	0.1
ROS	30	MLB	BAL	10%	16	14	3	0	0	1	2	6	0	0	0	214	312	429	741	214	307	38	12	295	84	-0	+0	+0	-0	+0	-0.0
FULL	30	AAA	BAL	—	207	178	41	5	0	6	20	77	6	6	1	230	328	360	688	129	368	37	10	301	88	-3	+1	+0	-4	+6	0.0
TOT	30	AAA	BAL	—	350	298	66	10	0	10	38	127	10	9	2	221	329	356	685	134	346	36	11	305	91	-3	+1	+0	-6	+10	0.2
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	31	MLB	BAL	27%	582	492	100	17	1	18	71	206	14	9	2	203	321	352	672	148	299	35	12	305	91	-6	+1	-1	-10	+16	0.0
2028	32	MLB	BAL	37%	570	481	95	15	1	17	70	204	14	7	2	198	317	339	656	141	293	36	12	298	86	-9	+1	-2	-10	+16	-0.4
2027	31	MLB	BAL	27%	159	135	28	5	0	5	19	56	4	2	1	207	323	356	678	148	304	35	12	291	81	-3	+0	-0	-3	+5	-0.2
2028	32	MLB	BAL	37%	213	180	35	6	0	6	26	76	5	3	1	194	313	328	641	133	298	36	12	285	76	-6	+0	-1	-4	+6	-0.4
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	1053	877	177	37	1	30	149	370	20	9	3	202	331	349	680	147	306	35	14	307	93	-8	+1	-8	-32	+30	-1.9
/ 162G	—			—	650	541	110	23	1	19	92	228	12	6	2	203	331	355	686	152	307	35	14	307	93	-5	+0	-5	-20	+18	-1.2
Career	—			—	5053	4259	829	168	11	162	639	1852	115	92	23	195	316	353	669	159	293	37	13	301	89	-66	+9	-10	-90	+143	-1.4
/ 162G	—			—	650	548	107	22	1	21	82	238	15	12	3	195	316	354	670	159	294	37	13	301	89	-8	+1	-1	-12	+18	-0.2

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2017	21	ROK	Bluefield Blue Jays	—	276	214	78	18	3	7	59	60	3	7	4	364	507	575	1.082	210	483	22	21	475	222	+38	-0	—	—	+8	4.7
2018	22	A	Lansing Lugnuts	—	527	403	103	24	4	20	109	135	10	14	4	256	425	484	909	228	328	26	21	402	166	+39	+1	—	—	+15	5.7
2019	23	A+	Dunedin Blue Jays	—	469	378	90	27	1	13	74	138	10	14	2	238	377	418	795	180	330	29	16	355	130	+16	+2	—	—	+13	3.2
2021	25	AA	Tulsa Drillers	—	475	384	96	15	1	29	74	127	12	3	1	250	387	521	908	271	288	27	16	395	161	+33	+0	—	—	+13	4.7
2022	26	AAA	Oklahoma City Dodgers	—	574	464	120	23	1	25	92	162	15	20	4	259	398	474	872	216	339	28	16	388	155	+36	+2	—	—	+16	5.5
2023	27	MLB	Oakland Athletics	—	495	406	93	22	1	16	77	170	10	3	1	229	365	406	772	177	347	34	16	350	126	+14	+0	-6	-9	+14	1.4
2023	27	AAA	Las Vegas Aviators	—	18	10	4	2	0	2	8	3	0	0	0	400	667	1.200	1.867	800	400	17	44	684	381	+6	+0	—	—	+1	0.6
2024	28	MLB	Oakland Athletics	—	111	95	13	4	0	1	14	37	1	0	0	137	255	211	465	74	211	33	13	225	30	-9	+0	-0	-10	+3	-1.6
2024	28	AAA	Las Vegas Aviators	—	447	348	78	21	2	22	89	134	8	5	1	224	393	486	879	261	289	30	20	389	156	+28	+1	—	—	+13	4.2
2025	29	MLB	Baltimore Orioles	—	59	47	5	0	0	1	11	25	0	1	0	106	276	170	446	64	190	42	19	227	32	-5	+0	-0	-6	+2	-1.0
2025	29	AAA	Norfolk Tides	—	291	208	39	6	0	10	66	94	14	6	1	188	413	361	774	173	271	32	23	363	136	+12	+1	—	—	+8	2.1
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	665	548	111	26	1	18	102	232	11	4	1	203	339	352	691	150	310	35	15	318	101	+1	+0	-7	-25	+19	-1.2

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Michael Saunderslast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 2,711 PA	8	2,711	81	55	233	305	399	-12	-13	4.1	4.5
	/162	664	20	13	233	305	399	-2.9	-3.2	1.0	pk7: 5
#2Daniel Vogelbachlast yr '24 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,913 PA	7	1,913	81	0	220	342	411	-29	-16	4.4	4.4
	/162	664	28	0	220	342	411	-10.2	-5.6	1.5	pk7: 4
#3Daric Bartonlast yr '14 career totals — 8 seasons, 2,085 PA	8	2,085	30	13	247	356	365	-37	-10	3.0	3.4
	/162	664	10	4	247	356	365	-11.9	-3.1	0.9	pk7: 4
#4Ji Man Choilast yr '23 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,823 PA	7	1,823	65	6	234	338	423	-33	-31	1.8	1.8
	/162	664	24	2	234	338	423	-11.9	-11.3	0.7	pk7: 2
#5Travis Sniderlast yr '15 career totals — 8 seasons, 1,971 PA	8	1,971	54	22	244	311	399	-21	-17	1.4	1.8
	/162	664	18	7	244	311	399	-7.1	-5.8	0.5	pk7: 2
#6Darin Ruflast yr '23 career totals — 8 seasons, 1,653 PA	8	1,653	64	6	237	329	420	-28	-31	1.0	1.7
#6Darin Ruflast yr '23 career totals — 8 seasons, 1,653 PA	/162	664	26	2	237	329	420	-11.3	-12.4	0.4	pk7: 2
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 4 projected seasons	4	1,072	30	10	202	328	350	-19	-14	0.5	0.6
	/162	664	19	6	202	328	350	-11.9	-8.9	0.3	pk7: 1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Ryan Noda (OGILVIE)	30	20	45	40	60	221/329/356	134	346	10	9	36%	11%	91	+0.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Yoshi Tsutsugo 2022 · MLB	30	43	55→50	42→30	53	228/314/412	184	273	23	3	25%	11%	105	+2.1	227/315/379	152	301	18	4	29%	11%	97	+1.5	216/313/352	135	294	17	2	30%	12%	88	+0.5
●Jon Singleton 2023 · AAA	31	37→47	54→55	47→45	53	199/303/376	178	278	22	5	35%	13%	92	+1.2	214/304/391	177	277	23	3	30%	11%	96	+1.5	203/294/371	168	257	23	1	29%	11%	84	+0.5
✕Daniel Palka 2021 · MLB	29	38→44	53→55	44→50	44	206/270/375	170	267	22	5	32%	8%	78	+0.2	223/285/394	171	285	22	5	29%	8%	89	+0.9	217/279/385	168	275	23	3	29%	8%	80	+0.3
✕Jabari Blash 2018 · MLB	29	41	54→60	42→50	50	208/319/385	177	308	22	6	37%	12%	102	+1.8	223/313/434	211	326	28	9	38%	10%	111	+2.5	208/296/460	252	287	36	10	40%	9%	107	+1.4
●Mike Ford 2022 · MLB	30	35→45	55	46→30	47	198/274/375	177	232	24	3	27%	8%	80	+0.4	219/301/386	167	266	21	4	26%	9%	94	+1.3	223/311/397	174	263	23	2	24%	10%	98	+0.8
✕Andy Wilkins 2019 · MLB	30	32→42	55	51→45	42	189/256/365	176	245	24	6	34%	8%	69	-0.4	193/262/347	154	306	20	7	41%	8%	67	-0.5	131/216/258	127	220	19	0	48%	9%	25	-1.2
✕Greg Bird 2022 · MLB	29	36→46	52→55	43→30	45	198/268/358	160	252	20	3	30%	8%	72	-0.2	204/268/341	137	272	16	7	30%	7%	68	-0.5	175/244/283	108	235	13	4	30%	8%	40	-1.0
✕Ryan Langerhans 2012 · MLB	32	43→40	51→50	45→50	51	217/309/375	158	302	19	13	33%	11%	94	+1.3	206/295/357	151	303	17	9	35%	11%	84	+0.6	184/282/331	147	270	16	5	35%	12%	69	-0.2
✕Brad Nelson 2013 · AAA	30	44→48	53→50	44→50	48	230/295/400	170	275	21	4	25%	8%	95	+1.4	215/270/347	132	260	16	4	23%	7%	69	-0.4	196/249/303	106	235	13	1	22%	6%	49	-1.1
✕Kirk Nieuwenhuis 2018 · MLB	30	42→50	48→60	45→50	49	205/298/349	144	304	16	11	35%	11%	83	+0.6	209/285/332	123	326	11	10	36%	9%	72	-0.2	194/270/311	116	314	7	8	37%	8%	58	-0.6
✕Graham Koonce 2006 · AAA	31	43→41	54→55	43→30	45	228/291/402	174	277	23	3	27%	7%	94	+1.3	213/286/391	178	267	23	4	29%	8%	89	+1.0	191/275/374	183	232	24	2	29%	9%	78	+0.1
✕Jeff Larish 2012 · MLB	29	43→46	54→55	43→45	44	226/291/406	180	295	22	4	31%	8%	95	+1.4	201/270/336	135	299	14	6	35%	8%	67	-0.5	159/239/256	97	252	4	0	35%	10%	30	-1.1
✕Mike Costanzo 2014 · MLB	30	41→48	46→50	40	43	208/268/341	133	288	14	4	32%	8%	68	-0.5	207/263/334	127	314	14	7	36%	7%	63	-0.8	146/202/239	92	246	14	0	45%	6%	14	-1.0
✕Baltazar Lopez 2014 · AAA	30	45	49→50	40→45	38	227/276/372	146	321	18	4	34%	6%	79	+0.3	222/276/340	118	332	13	6	35%	6%	70	-0.3	215/288/266	52	372	5	2	40%	8%	58	-0.2
✕Jason Conti 2005 · MLB	30	47→41	44→45	40→50	45	231/290/355	124	304	11	8	27%	8%	80	+0.4	218/268/336	118	288	12	6	28%	6%	66	-0.6	209/257/318	109	276	12	4	28%	5%	54	-0.9
✕Michael Pérez 2022 · MLB	29	35	49→50	40	46	187/262/332	145	237	17	4	29%	8%	63	-0.8	186/260/320	134	240	17	4	29%	8%	59	-1.1	167/245/284	117	216	16	1	31%	8%	43	-0.9
✕Ryan Fitzgerald 2023 · AAA	29	37→42	52→55	43→45	42	199/262/366	167	247	19	7	28%	6%	72	-0.2	207/272/356	149	273	16	9	29%	7%	73	-0.1	226/290/351	125	289	12	8	25%	7%	75	+0.0
✕Chris Parmelee 2019 · AAA	31	40→50	49→55	44→45	46	208/275/352	144	273	17	6	30%	8%	73	-0.1	216/284/401	185	316	25	6	38%	8%	91	+1.1	187/265/386	199	258	31	0	39%	9%	78	+0.1
✕Simon Pond 2006 · MLB	29	43→42	51→55	47→45	41	224/278/385	162	297	20	8	31%	6%	84	+0.6	221/276/364	143	301	15	6	30%	7%	76	+0.1	212/268/350	139	286	13	3	30%	7%	69	-0.3
✕Valentino Pascucci 2010 · AAA	31	41→45	52→55	48→45	48	216/297/379	163	280	20	5	30%	10%	90	+1.0	216/297/382	166	300	21	3	33%	10%	91	+1.1	207/295/373	166	295	22	0	35%	10%	85	+0.5