Jo Adell

RF Cleveland Guardians

Age 28 R/R 6'2" / 215 lbs MLB Svc 5.494 · Ctrl thru 2027

Overview

MLB40-MANArb-3FA 2028

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR
2024	25	MLBLAA	451	.207/.281/.402	20	15	90	-0.5
2025	26	MLBLAA	573	.236/.292/.485	37	5	114	1.1
2026	27	MLBCLE	660	.240/.301/.401	23	5	96	0.3
2027PROJ	28	MLBCLE	614	.248/.308/.443	28	7	109	1.4
2028PROJ	29	MLBCLE	614	.246/.305/.437	27	5	107	1.0
2029PROJ	30	MLBCLE	594	.243/.302/.430	26	3	104	0.7

Last 3 seasons WAR 0.9 · Next 3 projected WAR 3.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2027Service5.494First FA2028

2027Arb-3$8M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2024-2026

Bat Spd90

Barrel%79

xwOBA75

Avg EV73

Speed71

Form.251/.320/.424 · rolling true talent (60d window) · proj .248/.305/.443

CompsTyrone Taylor (age 28) · Scott Hairston (age 28) · Donnie Murphy (age 28)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†vL 115109vR 92

AVG/OBP/SLG.248 / .308 / .443

PA614

HR28

SB7

K%25

BB%6

BABIP288

ISO194

MLB%100%

Value2027 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · Recent Form · Splits · ContractCON 50 / POW 60

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2024-2026

CONTACT50

xAVG

470.249

POWER60

Barrel%

7912.5

Avg EV

7390.7

Bat Spd

9077.2

EYE45

scouting grade only

SPEED55

Sprint

7128.3

Recent Formrolling true talent ⓘ

K%22%▲▲20% over 115 PA (60d) · proj 25%

BB%7%▲▲9% over 115 PA (60d) · proj 6%

ISO.173▼.137 over 102 AB (60d) · proj .195

HR/BB5.5%▼3.8% over 80 BBE (60d) · proj 6.8%

BABIP.288·.299 over 77 BIP (60d) · proj .287

SLASH.251/.320/.424·proj .248/.305/.443

Platoon Splits2024-2026 · 1141 PA

vs LHP

vs RHP

Edge

249

892

—

wRC+

149

◀◀L

wOBA

388

300

◀◀L

ISO

312

185

◀◀L

BABIP

270

254

◀L

20.1%

28.0%

◀◀L

BB%

7.2%

5.8%

◀◀L

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Arb-3

MLB Debut 2020

Service 5.494 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2027

First FA Year 2028

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Arb-3	$8M	+1.6	$13M	+$5M
Totals		$8M		$13M	+$5M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2017	18	ROK	Orem Owlz	—	222	203	66	11	8	5	14	49	3	8	2	325	377	532	909	207	407	22	6	394	73	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	19	AA	Mobile BayBears	—	71	63	15	6	0	2	6	22	2	2	0	238	324	429	753	190	333	31	8	336	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	19	A+	Inland Empire 66ers	—	262	238	69	19	3	12	15	63	6	9	2	290	346	546	892	256	345	24	6	385	104	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	19	A	Burlington Bees	—	108	95	31	7	1	6	11	26	1	4	1	326	402	611	1.012	284	391	24	10	434	112	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	20	AAA	Salt Lake Bees	—	132	121	32	11	0	0	10	43	0	1	0	264	318	355	674	91	410	33	8	304	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	20	AA	Mobile BayBears	—	182	159	49	15	0	8	19	41	3	6	0	308	392	553	946	245	369	23	10	412	103	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	20	A+	Inland Empire 66ers	—	27	25	7	1	0	2	1	10	1	0	0	280	333	560	893	280	385	37	4	389	83	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	20	INTL	Mesa Solar Sox	—	111	99	27	8	0	3	11	29	1	3	0	273	351	444	796	172	358	26	10	355	126	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	21	MLB	Los Angeles Angels	—	132	124	20	4	0	3	7	55	1	0	1	161	212	266	478	105	258	42	5	218	34	-10	-0	-5	-1	+3	-1.5
2021	22	MLB	Los Angeles Angels	—	140	130	32	5	2	4	8	32	1	2	1	246	295	408	703	162	298	23	6	309	96	-1	+0	-1	-5	+3	-0.3
2021	22	AAA	Salt Lake Bees	—	339	311	90	17	4	23	22	99	4	8	2	289	344	592	936	302	351	29	6	401	103	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	23	MLB	Los Angeles Angels	—	285	268	60	12	2	8	11	107	4	4	2	224	264	373	637	149	338	38	4	282	78	-8	+0	-4	-5	+6	-1.0
2022	23	AAA	Salt Lake Bees	—	180	155	37	15	0	13	20	56	3	3	2	239	337	587	924	348	273	31	11	392	93	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	24	MLB	Los Angeles Angels	—	62	58	12	3	1	3	4	25	0	1	0	207	258	448	706	241	300	40	6	307	94	-0	+0	+1	-4	+1	-0.3
2023	24	AAA	Salt Lake Bees	—	330	278	76	15	0	24	40	87	7	9	1	273	376	586	962	313	306	26	12	411	103	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	25	MLB	Los Angeles Angels	—	451	405	84	15	2	20	35	126	7	15	10	207	281	402	684	195	244	28	8	302	90	-6	-1	-4	-5	+10	-0.5
2025	26	MLB	Los Angeles Angels	—	573	526	124	18	1	37	33	151	10	5	1	236	292	485	777	249	257	26	6	338	114	+10	+1	-13	+2	+12	1.1
2026	27	MLB	Cleveland Guardians	—	660	603	145	26	1	23	34	157	18	5	0	240	301	401	702	161	285	24	5	312	96	-3	+1	-2	-7	+14	0.3
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	2303	2114	477	83	9	98	132	653	41	32	15	226	284	412	696	187	276	28	6	307	94	-17	+0	-28	-26	+50	-2.1
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2017	18	ROK MLE	Orem Owlz	—	222	209	49	7	5	4	8	71	3	8	2	234	273	373	646	139	329	32	4	276	73	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	19	AA MLE	Mobile BayBears	—	71	65	13	5	0	2	4	27	2	2	0	200	268	369	637	169	313	38	6	275	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	19	A+ MLE	Inland Empire 66ers	—	262	243	59	14	2	11	11	81	6	9	2	243	292	453	745	210	315	31	4	322	104	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	19	A MLE	Burlington Bees	—	108	98	25	5	1	5	8	37	1	4	1	255	318	480	797	224	333	34	7	333	112	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	20	AAA MLE	Salt Lake Bees	—	132	124	26	8	0	0	8	55	0	1	0	210	258	274	532	65	366	42	6	231	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	20	AA MLE	Mobile BayBears	—	182	165	40	12	0	6	13	52	3	6	0	242	309	424	734	182	313	29	7	320	103	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	20	A+ MLE	Inland Empire 66ers	—	27	25	6	1	0	2	1	13	1	0	0	240	296	520	816	280	353	48	4	291	83	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	21	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Angels	—	132	124	20	4	0	3	7	55	1	0	1	161	212	266	478	105	258	42	5	219	34	-10	-0	-5	-1	+3	-1.5
2021	22	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Angels	—	140	130	32	5	2	4	8	32	1	2	1	246	295	408	703	162	298	23	6	310	96	-1	+0	-1	-5	+3	-0.3
2021	22	AAA MLE	Salt Lake Bees	—	339	318	77	14	3	18	15	121	4	8	2	242	285	475	760	233	325	36	4	321	103	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	23	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Angels	—	285	269	60	12	2	8	11	107	4	4	2	223	264	372	636	149	338	38	4	283	78	-8	+0	-4	-5	+6	-1.0
2022	23	AAA MLE	Salt Lake Bees	—	180	161	30	13	0	9	14	68	3	3	2	186	264	435	699	248	245	38	8	305	93	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	24	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Angels	—	62	58	12	3	1	3	4	25	0	1	0	207	258	448	706	241	300	40	6	308	94	-0	+0	+1	-4	+1	-0.3
2023	24	AAA MLE	Salt Lake Bees	—	330	293	64	13	0	18	27	103	7	9	1	218	300	447	747	229	257	31	8	321	103	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	25	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Angels	—	451	407	85	16	2	20	34	126	7	15	10	209	281	405	687	197	244	28	8	301	90	-6	-1	-4	-5	+10	-0.5
2025	26	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Angels	—	573	529	124	19	1	36	33	151	10	5	1	234	292	478	770	244	257	26	6	337	114	+10	+1	-13	+2	+12	1.1
2026	27	MLB MLE	Cleveland Guardians	—	660	604	145	26	1	23	33	157	18	5	0	240	299	401	700	161	285	24	5	310	96	-3	+1	-2	-7	+14	0.3
2017	18	ROK MLE	Orem Owlz	—	222	209	49	7	5	4	8	71	3	8	2	234	273	373	646	139	333	32	4	276	73	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	18	ROK RAW	Orem Owlz	—	222	203	66	11	8	5	14	49	3	8	2	325	377	532	909	207	407	22	6	394	73	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	19	A+ MLE	3 teams	—	441	406	98	24	3	18	23	144	9	15	3	241	297	448	745	207	324	33	5	317	101	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	19	A+ RAW	3 teams	—	441	396	115	32	4	20	32	111	9	15	3	290	356	543	899	253	354	25	7	389	101	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	20	AA MLE	4 teams	—	452	417	94	28	0	10	29	160	5	10	0	225	284	365	648	139	339	35	6	283	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	20	AA RAW	4 teams	—	452	404	115	35	0	13	41	123	5	10	0	285	357	468	825	183	379	27	9	365	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	21	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Angels	—	132	124	20	4	0	3	7	55	1	0	1	161	212	266	478	105	258	42	5	219	34	-10	-0	-5	-1	+3	-1.5
2020	21	MLB RAW	Los Angeles Angels	—	132	124	20	4	0	3	7	55	1	0	1	161	212	266	478	105	258	42	5	218	34	-10	-0	-5	-1	+3	-1.5
2021	22	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	479	448	109	20	5	21	23	153	5	10	3	243	288	451	739	208	319	32	5	318	101	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	22	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	479	441	122	22	6	27	30	131	5	10	3	277	330	537	867	261	333	27	6	374	101	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	23	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	465	430	91	26	2	17	25	175	7	7	4	212	266	400	666	188	307	38	5	291	83	-9	-0	-4	-5	+10	-0.8
2022	23	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	465	423	97	27	2	21	31	163	7	7	4	229	292	452	744	222	314	35	7	325	83	-9	-0	-4	-5	+10	-0.8
2023	24	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	392	351	76	16	1	21	31	128	7	10	1	217	293	447	740	231	268	33	8	319	102	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	24	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	392	336	88	18	1	27	44	112	7	10	1	262	357	562	920	301	305	29	11	395	102	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	25	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Angels	—	451	407	85	16	2	20	34	126	7	15	10	209	281	405	687	197	246	28	8	301	90	-6	-1	-4	-5	+10	-0.5
2024	25	MLB RAW	Los Angeles Angels	—	451	405	84	15	2	20	35	126	7	15	10	207	281	402	684	195	244	28	8	302	90	-6	-1	-4	-5	+10	-0.5
2025	26	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Angels	—	573	529	124	19	1	36	33	151	10	5	1	234	292	478	770	244	257	26	6	337	114	+10	+1	-13	+2	+12	1.1
2025	26	MLB RAW	Los Angeles Angels	—	573	526	124	18	1	37	33	151	10	5	1	236	292	485	777	249	257	26	6	338	114	+10	+1	-13	+2	+12	1.1
2026	27	MLB MLE	Cleveland Guardians	—	660	604	145	26	1	23	33	157	18	5	0	240	299	401	700	161	284	24	5	310	96	-3	+1	-2	-7	+14	0.3
2026	27	MLB RAW	Cleveland Guardians	—	660	603	145	26	1	23	34	157	18	5	0	240	301	401	702	161	285	24	5	312	96	-3	+1	-2	-7	+14	0.3
2017	18	ROK MLE	Orem Owlz	—	222	209	49	7	5	4	8	71	3	8	2	234	273	373	646	139	329	32	4	276	73	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	19	A+ MLE	3 teams	—	441	406	98	24	3	18	23	144	9	15	3	241	297	448	745	207	319	33	5	317	101	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	20	AA MLE	4 teams	—	452	415	94	28	0	10	29	160	5	10	0	227	284	366	650	140	337	35	6	283	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	21	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Angels	—	132	123	20	4	0	3	7	55	1	0	1	163	212	268	480	106	258	42	5	219	34	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	22	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	479	448	109	20	5	21	23	153	5	10	3	243	288	451	739	208	317	32	5	318	101	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	23	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	465	430	91	26	2	17	25	175	7	7	4	212	266	400	666	188	302	38	5	291	83	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	24	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	392	351	76	16	1	21	31	128	7	10	1	217	293	447	740	231	264	33	8	319	102	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	25	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Angels	—	451	407	85	16	2	20	34	126	7	15	10	209	281	405	687	197	244	28	8	301	90	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	26	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Angels	—	573	525	124	19	1	36	33	151	10	5	1	236	292	482	774	246	257	26	6	337	114	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	27	MLB MLE	Cleveland Guardians	—	660	604	145	26	1	23	33	157	18	5	0	240	299	401	700	161	285	24	5	310	96	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	25	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Angels	—	451	407	85	16	2	20	34	126	7	15	10	209	281	405	687	197	244	28	8	301	90	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	26	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Angels	—	573	525	124	19	1	36	33	151	10	5	1	236	292	482	774	246	257	26	6	337	114	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	27	MLB MLE	Cleveland Guardians	—	660	604	145	26	1	23	33	157	18	5	0	240	299	401	700	161	285	24	5	310	96	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	28	MLB MLE	CLE	100%	580	529	130	21	1	26	32	142	14	7	2	248	308	443	751	195	287	24	6	330	109	+6	+1	-1	-6	+13	1.6
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	28	MLB CTX	CLE	100%	614	561	139	23	1	28	34	151	14	7	2	248	308	443	751	195	288	25	6	330	109	+7	+1	-1	-7	+13	1.4
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	29	MLB MLE	CLE	100%	614	561	137	22	1	27	34	152	14	5	1	246	305	437	742	192	286	25	6	326	107	+5	+1	-2	-7	+13	1.0
2029	30	MLB MLE	CLE	100%	594	544	131	21	1	26	32	149	13	3	1	243	301	430	731	187	284	25	5	322	104	+3	+0	-3	-6	+13	0.7
2030	31	MLB MLE	CLE	100%	568	520	124	20	1	24	30	145	13	2	1	238	296	420	716	181	281	26	5	316	100	-0	+0	-4	-6	+12	0.3
2031	32	MLB MLE	CLE	100%	552	506	118	18	1	23	29	144	12	2	0	233	290	406	696	173	276	26	5	308	94	-4	+0	-4	-6	+12	-0.2
2032	33	MLB MLE	CLE	100%	506	464	106	16	1	20	26	135	11	1	0	226	282	390	672	164	271	27	5	298	88	-7	+0	-5	-5	+11	-0.7
2033	34	MLB MLE	CLE	100%	448	414	90	13	0	17	22	122	9	1	0	217	272	370	642	153	263	27	5	285	79	-11	+0	-6	-5	+10	-1.2
2028	29	MLB CTX	CLE	100%	614	561	138	23	1	27	34	152	14	5	1	246	305	437	743	191	287	25	6	327	107	+5	+1	-2	-7	+13	1.0
2029	30	MLB CTX	CLE	100%	594	544	133	22	1	26	32	149	13	3	1	243	302	430	732	186	285	25	5	322	104	+3	+0	-3	-6	+13	0.7
2030	31	MLB CTX	CLE	100%	568	520	124	20	1	24	30	145	13	2	1	239	297	420	717	181	282	26	5	316	100	-0	+0	-4	-6	+12	0.3
2031	32	MLB CTX	CLE	100%	552	506	119	19	1	23	29	144	12	2	0	234	291	407	697	173	277	26	5	308	94	-4	+0	-4	-6	+12	-0.2
2032	33	MLB CTX	CLE	100%	506	464	105	16	0	20	26	135	11	1	0	227	282	391	673	164	272	27	5	298	88	-7	+0	-5	-5	+11	-0.7
2033	34	MLB CTX	CLE	100%	448	414	90	13	0	17	22	122	9	1	0	218	272	371	643	153	264	27	5	286	79	-11	+0	-6	-5	+10	-1.2
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	5585	5123	1186	196	13	235	305	1500	113	46	18	232	289	412	702	181	278	27	5	309	96	-31	+2	-52	-61	+121	-2.1
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	596	138	23	2	27	35	175	13	5	2	232	288	413	701	181	280	27	5	309	96	-4	+0	-6	-7	+14	-0.2
Career	—	MLE		—	8163	7495	1736	319	26	338	453	2318	158	106	30	232	290	416	706	185	286	28	6	309	96	-24	+3	-53	-67	+134	-0.8
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	597	138	25	2	27	36	185	13	8	2	231	289	415	705	184	286	28	6	309	96	-3	+0	-6	-7	+14	-0.1

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2023 AAASalt Lake Bees · 330 PAwOBA .401 → .321 (−80)K% 26.4% → 31.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	26.36%	÷1.010	×1.200	—	—	31.33%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	11.21%	÷1.005	×0.690	—	×1.048	8.07%
HBP% /PA	2.12%	—	×0.940	—	×1.048	2.09%
Singles /BIP	19.37%	÷1.058	×0.930	×0.954	×1.048	17.04%
Doubles /BIP	7.85%	÷0.967	×0.830	×0.954	×1.048	6.74%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.900	×0.970	×0.954	×1.048	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	12.57%	÷1.003	×0.700	—	×1.048	9.19%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 101, 1B 112, 2B 93, 3B 80, K 102, BB 101 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 27.2 → +4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.954.

Result: wOBA .401 → .321; ISO .313 → .238; BABIP .306 → .257. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAASalt Lake Bees · 180 PAwOBA .385 → .305 (−81)K% 31.1% → 37.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	31.11%	÷0.989	×1.200	—	—	37.75%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	11.11%	÷1.034	×0.690	—	×1.050	7.79%
HBP% /PA	1.67%	—	×0.940	—	×1.050	1.65%
Singles /BIP	9.09%	÷0.993	×0.930	×0.992	×1.050	8.87%
Doubles /BIP	15.15%	÷0.956	×0.830	×0.992	×1.050	13.70%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.150	×0.970	×0.992	×1.050	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	13.13%	÷0.978	×0.700	—	×1.050	9.87%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 96, 1B 99, 2B 91, 3B 130, K 98, BB 107 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.992.

Result: wOBA .385 → .305; ISO .348 → .266; BABIP .273 → .245. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAASalt Lake Bees · 339 PAwOBA .392 → .321 (−71)K% 29.2% → 35.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	29.20%	÷0.982	×1.200	—	—	35.68%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	6.49%	÷1.090	×0.690	—	×1.050	4.31%
HBP% /PA	1.18%	—	×0.940	—	×1.050	1.16%
Singles /BIP	21.70%	÷1.032	×0.930	×1.031	×1.050	21.17%
Doubles /BIP	8.02%	÷1.002	×0.830	×1.031	×1.050	7.19%
Triples /BIP	1.89%	÷1.150	×0.920	×1.031	×1.050	1.63%
Home runs /BIP	10.85%	÷0.907	×0.700	—	×1.050	8.80%

Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 81, 1B 106, 2B 100, 3B 130, K 96, BB 118 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (5.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.031.

Result: wOBA .392 → .321; ISO .302 → .236; BABIP .351 → .325. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AAMobile BayBears · 182 PAwOBA .403 → .320 (−82)K% 22.5% → 28.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	22.53%	÷0.956	×1.220	—	—	28.75%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	10.44%	÷1.020	×0.680	—	×1.050	7.31%
HBP% /PA	1.65%	—	×0.840	—	×1.050	1.45%
Singles /BIP	22.03%	÷1.066	×0.920	×0.950	×1.050	18.98%
Doubles /BIP	12.71%	÷1.054	×0.910	×0.950	×1.050	10.94%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.902	×0.880	×0.950	×1.050	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	6.78%	÷1.050	×0.800	—	×1.050	5.42%

Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 110, 1B 113, 2B 111, 3B 80, K 91, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 24.8 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .403 → .320; ISO .245 → .195; BABIP .369 → .313. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AAASalt Lake Bees · 132 PAwOBA .296 → .231 (−65)K% 32.6% → 41.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	32.58%	÷1.009	×1.290	—	—	41.65%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	7.58%	÷0.980	×0.710	—	×1.050	5.76%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.980	—	×1.050	0.00%
Singles /BIP	26.92%	÷1.007	×0.900	—	×1.050	25.27%
Doubles /BIP	14.10%	÷1.062	×0.810	—	×1.050	11.30%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.900	×0.810	—	×1.050	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷1.059	×0.780	—	×1.050	0.00%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 112, 1B 101, 2B 112, 3B 80, K 102, BB 96 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (7.2 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .296 → .231; ISO .091 → .065; BABIP .410 → .366. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 A+Inland Empire 66ers · 27 PAwOBA .377 → .291 (−86)K% 37.0% → 49.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	37.04%	÷0.997	×1.340	—	—	49.79%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	3.70%	÷0.968	×0.710	—	×1.042	2.83%
HBP% /PA	3.70%	—	×0.790	—	×1.042	3.05%
Singles /BIP	26.67%	÷1.024	×0.910	—	×1.042	24.70%
Doubles /BIP	6.67%	÷0.985	×0.820	—	×1.042	5.78%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.150	×0.760	—	×1.042	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	13.33%	÷0.939	×0.920	—	×1.042	13.62%

Factors used: league row CAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 88, 1B 105, 2B 97, 3B 130, K 99, BB 94 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .377 → .291; ISO .280 → .223; BABIP .385 → .353. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 A+Inland Empire 66ers · 262 PAwOBA .377 → .322 (−54)K% 24.0% → 30.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	24.05%	÷1.044	×1.340	—	—	30.88%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	5.73%	÷0.986	×0.710	—	×1.050	4.33%
HBP% /PA	2.29%	—	×0.790	—	×1.050	1.90%
Singles /BIP	20.00%	÷0.977	×0.910	×1.007	×1.050	19.70%
Doubles /BIP	10.86%	÷1.087	×0.820	×1.007	×1.050	8.66%
Triples /BIP	1.71%	÷0.978	×0.760	×1.007	×1.050	1.41%
Home runs /BIP	6.86%	÷0.978	×0.920	—	×1.050	6.77%

Factors used: league row CAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 96, 1B 95, 2B 117, 3B 96, K 109, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 22.8 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.007.

Result: wOBA .377 → .322; ISO .256 → .220; BABIP .345 → .315. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 ABurlington Bees · 108 PAwOBA .426 → .333 (−93)K% 24.1% → 33.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	24.07%	÷0.970	×1.360	—	—	33.76%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	10.19%	÷1.042	×0.690	—	×1.045	7.05%
HBP% /PA	0.93%	—	×0.780	—	×1.045	0.75%
Singles /BIP	24.64%	÷1.009	×0.920	×0.953	×1.045	22.38%
Doubles /BIP	10.14%	÷1.147	×0.830	×0.953	×1.045	7.31%
Triples /BIP	1.45%	÷0.900	×0.910	×0.953	×1.045	1.46%
Home runs /BIP	8.70%	÷0.907	×0.800	—	×1.045	8.01%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 81, 1B 102, 2B 129, 3B 80, K 94, BB 108 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 22.0 → +4.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.953.

Result: wOBA .426 → .333; ISO .284 → .228; BABIP .391 → .333. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 14 projected seasons	9.3	6,199	263	54	234	289	417	-33	-74	12.9	13.0
/162	664	28	6	-3.6	-7.9	1.4	pk7: 13
#1Hubie Brooks'80-'94 * career totals — 15 seasons, 6,476 PA	9.8	6,476	149	64	267*	314*	435*	-12	-70	10.1	11.2
/162	664	15	7	-1.3	-7.1	1.0	pk7: 12
#2Pete Incaviglia'86-'98 * career totals — 11 seasons, 4,677 PA	7.0	4,677	206	33	242*	307*	466*	-56	-19	9.9	10.5
/162	664	29	5	-8.0	-2.7	1.4	pk7: 11
#3Kole Calhounlast yr '23 career totals — 11 seasons, 4,963 PA	7.5	4,963	179	33	242	316	418	-54	-33	8.3	9.6
/162	664	24	4	-7.3	-4.4	1.1	pk7: 11
#4Hunter Renfroelast yr '25 career totals — 9 seasons, 3,727 PA	5.6	3,727	188	15	235	297	458	-40	-32	7.3	8.0
/162	664	33	3	-7.1	-5.7	1.3	pk7: 9
#5Anthony Santanderlast yr '25 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,305 PA	5.0	3,305	161	10	241	305	459	-35	-36	6.7	7.2
/162	664	32	2	-7.1	-7.3	1.4	pk7: 8
#6Cory Snyder'86-'94 * career totals — 9 seasons, 3,933 PA	5.9	3,933	149	28	243*	290*	445*	-35	-18	4.7	5.7
/162	664	25	5	-5.9	-3.0	0.8	pk7: 7

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Jo Adell (OGILVIE)	28	50	60	55	45	246/305/439	194	287	28	7	25%	6%	109	+2.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Tyrone Taylor 2022 · MLB	28	48→54	56→60	53→55	46	251/316/445	194	294	23	10	23%	7%	114	+2.3	244/297/441	197	290	22	12	24%	6%	105	+1.7	239/289/432	193	287	20	14	24%	5%	101	+0.8
●Scott Hairston 2008 · MLB	28	48→51	57→60	52→50	49	251/316/449	198	283	24	6	21%	8%	114	+2.4	247/306/439	192	280	23	9	21%	7%	108	+1.9	241/302/425	184	271	23	10	20%	7%	105	+1.1
✕Donnie Murphy 2011 · MLB	28	44→40	57→65	48→45	41	236/287/440	204	289	25	5	28%	6%	102	+1.5	221/282/406	185	268	22	6	26%	6%	92	+0.7	209/273/393	185	253	23	5	27%	6%	85	+0.1
✕Khalil Greene 2008 · MLB	28	48→53	55→60	51→45	45	249/298/445	196	275	22	6	19%	6%	107	+1.8	228/279/388	160	259	19	7	20%	6%	86	+0.3	210/262/346	135	241	17	6	21%	5%	70	-0.5
●Tony Batista 2002 · MLB	28	46→47	60→65	46→45	45	248/292/465	217	259	29	6	18%	5%	109	+2.0	239/282/432	193	245	26	6	16%	5%	98	+1.2	234/275/425	191	234	27	7	14%	4%	95	+1.0
●Travis Shaw 2018 · MLB	28	49→52	56→60	51→45	48	255/318/452	198	298	24	8	23%	8%	116	+2.5	231/321/429	198	268	26	6	24%	11%	112	+2.2	215/316/406	191	247	26	4	24%	12%	105	+1.1
●Dansby Swanson 2022 · MLB	28	48→55	55	48→55	47	251/315/441	190	303	23	10	25%	8%	112	+2.2	256/321/429	173	318	21	13	25%	8%	111	+2.1	253/322/417	164	314	20	14	25%	9%	109	+2.1
✕Jake Fox 2010 · MLB	28	49→53	60	47→45	43	260/317/478	218	291	27	6	22%	6%	122	+2.9	233/289/407	174	268	20	3	21%	5%	95	+1.0	218/273/378	160	242	20	0	20%	5%	80	-0.1
✕Paul DeJong 2022 · MLB	28	41→51	57→65	47→45	49	223/305/414	191	257	26	7	25%	9%	103	+1.5	208/272/384	176	259	25	6	30%	7%	84	+0.1	223/275/397	174	292	25	5	32%	5%	88	+0.3
✕Kyle Lewis 2023 · MLB	28	42→48	54→55	49→40	50	225/307/394	170	280	24	7	29%	10%	99	+1.2	251/317/419	168	321	22	5	27%	8%	107	+1.9	273/336/441	168	351	22	0	27%	8%	116	+1.5
●Harrison Bader 2022 · MLB	28	47→57	56→55	50→55	46	248/315/442	194	294	24	14	24%	7%	112	+2.2	241/289/376	135	283	15	24	20%	5%	87	+0.4	246/306/404	158	305	19	16	25%	6%	101	+0.8
✕Rocco Baldelli 2010 · MLB	28	45→55	54→55	48→55	45	238/302/410	172	283	23	7	25%	7%	100	+1.3	233/284/380	147	295	17	8	26%	6%	86	+0.3	213/235/329	116	281	12	5	29%	2%	55	-0.4
●Pedro Feliz 2004 · MLB	29	45→54	57→60	46→45	42	244/280/437	194	266	26	6	20%	4%	98	+1.2	256/293/448	192	277	23	4	17%	5%	105	+1.7	252/289/436	185	272	21	2	17%	5%	102	+1.5
●Cody Ross 2009 · MLB	28	50→55	60→65	50→45	46	264/324/492	228	301	27	7	22%	7%	127	+3.3	265/319/450	185	309	21	8	21%	7%	116	+2.5	261/320/435	173	305	20	7	21%	7%	113	+2.1
●Jonathan Schoop 2021 · MLB	29	48→56	58→60	44→45	40	256/301/455	199	294	27	3	24%	4%	110	+2.1	250/295/400	150	293	18	4	21%	5%	95	+0.9	243/288/378	135	286	15	3	21%	5%	88	+0.3
✕Lane Thomas 2024 · MLB	28	50→52	54→55	50→55	44	254/311/438	184	311	22	14	25%	7%	110	+2.1	236/306/403	167	297	19	22	26%	8%	100	+1.3	221/303/376	155	280	17	26	26%	10%	93	+0.5
●Javier Báez 2021 · MLB	28	48→58	60→65	49→55	37	257/292/479	222	314	28	12	28%	4%	113	+2.3	249/294/432	183	316	24	14	28%	5%	103	+1.5	244/290/409	165	307	21	14	27%	4%	96	+1.0
●Adam Jones 2014 · MLB	28	53→56	56→60	49→50	42	277/315/469	193	306	25	13	19%	4%	119	+2.7	268/305/448	180	297	24	7	19%	4%	110	+2.1	264/305/434	170	288	24	2	17%	4%	107	+2.0
●Hunter Renfroe 2020 · MLB	28	41→47	65	50→45	44	235/295/482	248	271	34	6	28%	8%	115	+2.4	235/300/473	238	264	33	5	25%	8%	114	+2.4	244/305/457	213	275	28	1	23%	8%	113	+2.1
✕Chris Heisey 2012 · MLB	27	47→53	55	50→55	44	247/303/431	184	286	24	11	23%	6%	105	+1.7	241/290/395	154	290	17	11	23%	5%	92	+0.7	235/281/378	143	282	14	11	22%	5%	84	+0.1

Jo Adell

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps