Paul DeJong

SS Toledo Mud Hens

Age 33 R/R 6'0" / 205 lbs AAA HR -8% Svc 10.000 · Ctrl thru 2027

Overview

AAAExt / FA-dealFA 2028

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2024	30	MLBKC	482	.227/.279/.427	24	2	101	2.1
2025	31	AAWSH	46	.275/.356/.375	1	1	70	—	.244/.311/.341
2025	31	MLBWSH	208	.228/.273/.373	6	4	78	0.1
2026	32	AAADET	110	.188/.361/.447	6	0	61	—	.130/.259/.293
2027PROJ10% MLB	33	MLBDET	14	.208/.274/.383	1	0	87	0.0
2028PROJ	34	MLBDET	110	.199/.264/.362	4	0	78	-0.4

Last 3 seasons WAR 2.2 · Next 2 projected WAR -0.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2027Service10.000First FA2028

2027Ext / FA-deal$2M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2023-2025

Bat Spd58

Barrel%55

Speed30

xwOBA26

Avg EV23

CompsCody Ransom (age 33) · Carlos Pérez (age 33) · Anthony Recker (age 32)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†vL 8887vR 84

AVG/OBP/SLG.208 / .274 / .383

PA14

HR1

K%29

BB%7

BABIP260

ISO231

MLB%10%

Value2027 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · Splits · ContractCON 35 / POW 55

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2023-2025

CONTACT35

xAVG

100.212

POWER55

Barrel%

558.9

Avg EV

2387.0

Bat Spd

5872.2

EYE35

scouting grade only

SPEED45

Sprint

3026.5

Platoon Splits2024-2025 · 690 PA

vs LHP

vs RHP

Edge

192

498

—

wRC+

▶▶R

wOBA

277

307

▶R

ISO

198

177

◀L

BABIP

249

308

▶▶R

38.0%

30.7%

▶▶R

BB%

6.3%

4.4%

◀◀L

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status FA

MLB Debut 2017

Service 10.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2027

First FA Year 2028

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Ext / FA-deal	$2M	+0.0	$0.1M	-$1M
Totals		$2M		$0.1M	-$1M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2015	21	A	Peoria Chiefs	—	247	219	63	12	3	5	23	43	3	13	4	288	363	438	802	151	335	17	9	356	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	21	ROK	Johnson City Cardinals	—	45	37	18	6	0	4	6	9	2	0	0	486	578	973	1.551	486	583	20	13	643	193	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	22	AA	Springfield Cardinals	—	552	496	129	29	2	22	40	144	10	3	2	260	328	460	788	200	318	26	7	345	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	22	INTL	Glendale Desert Dogs	—	74	69	16	1	0	1	3	21	0	1	1	232	264	290	554	58	306	28	4	245	52	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	23	MLB	St. Louis Cardinals	—	443	417	119	26	1	25	21	124	4	1	0	285	326	532	858	247	349	28	5	373	142	+22	+0	-8	+7	+10	3.2
2017	23	AAA	Memphis Redbirds	—	190	177	53	9	0	13	9	46	2	0	2	299	340	571	911	271	336	24	5	392	93	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	24	MLB	St. Louis Cardinals	—	490	436	105	25	1	19	36	123	12	1	1	241	315	433	749	193	288	25	7	330	110	+6	-0	-4	+5	+11	1.8
2018	24	AAA	Memphis Redbirds	—	15	13	4	2	0	1	1	4	0	0	0	308	357	692	1.049	385	333	27	7	417	141	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	25	MLB	St. Louis Cardinals	—	664	583	136	31	1	30	62	149	13	9	5	233	321	444	765	211	259	22	9	337	118	+14	-0	+10	+7	+14	4.6
2020	26	MLB	St. Louis Cardinals	—	174	152	38	6	0	3	17	50	1	1	0	250	329	349	678	99	340	29	10	303	93	-1	+0	-1	+2	+4	0.3
2021	27	MLB	St. Louis Cardinals	—	402	356	70	10	1	19	35	103	9	4	1	197	285	390	675	194	216	26	9	302	95	-2	+0	+6	+4	+9	1.8
2022	28	MLB	St. Louis Cardinals	—	237	210	33	9	0	6	21	79	4	3	2	157	247	286	533	129	213	33	9	244	54	-13	-0	+5	+5	+5	0.2
2022	28	AAA	Memphis Redbirds	—	230	201	50	10	0	17	20	52	2	1	1	249	323	552	875	303	237	23	9	367	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	29	MLB	San Francisco Giants	—	400	372	77	13	0	14	21	121	5	4	4	207	259	355	614	148	264	30	5	274	76	-11	-1	+9	+5	+9	1.0
2023	29	AAA	Memphis Redbirds	—	40	34	12	3	0	2	5	12	1	0	0	353	450	618	1.068	265	500	30	12	464	121	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	30	MLB	Kansas City Royals	—	482	445	101	17	0	24	23	156	9	2	2	227	279	427	706	200	285	32	5	309	101	+1	-0	+5	+5	+10	2.1
2025	31	MLB	Washington Nationals	—	208	193	44	10	0	6	11	70	1	4	0	228	273	373	646	145	317	34	5	284	78	-6	+1	+0	+1	+5	0.1
2025	31	AA	Harrisburg Senators	—	46	40	11	1	0	1	4	12	1	1	1	275	356	375	731	100	357	26	9	327	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	32	AAA	Toledo Mud Hens	—	110	85	16	4	0	6	21	28	2	0	1	188	361	447	808	259	189	25	19	356	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	3500	3164	723	147	4	146	247	975	58	29	15	229	296	416	712	187	278	28	7	314	99	-5	-0	+21	+41	+76	13.6
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2015	21	A MLE	Peoria Chiefs	—	247	227	55	9	3	4	15	59	3	13	4	242	298	361	659	119	300	24	6	284	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	21	ROK MLE	Johnson City Cardinals	—	45	39	13	4	0	3	4	13	2	0	0	333	422	667	1.089	333	437	29	9	454	193	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	22	AA MLE	Springfield Cardinals	—	552	508	111	24	2	15	28	172	10	3	2	219	273	362	635	144	287	31	5	277	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	23	MLB MLE	St. Louis Cardinals	—	443	418	120	25	1	27	20	124	4	1	0	287	326	545	871	258	349	28	5	378	142	+22	+0	-8	+7	+10	3.2
2017	23	AAA MLE	Memphis Redbirds	—	190	179	43	7	0	10	7	59	2	0	2	240	277	447	724	207	291	31	4	306	93	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	24	MLB MLE	St. Louis Cardinals	—	490	439	105	24	1	20	34	123	12	1	1	239	311	435	746	196	288	25	7	331	110	+6	-0	-4	+5	+11	1.8
2018	24	AAA MLE	Memphis Redbirds	—	15	13	4	2	0	1	1	5	0	0	0	308	357	692	1.049	385	295	33	7	377	141	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	25	MLB MLE	St. Louis Cardinals	—	664	584	137	30	1	32	61	149	13	9	5	235	321	454	774	219	259	22	9	342	118	+14	-0	+10	+7	+14	4.6
2020	26	MLB MLE	St. Louis Cardinals	—	174	152	38	6	0	3	17	50	1	1	0	250	329	349	678	99	340	29	10	306	93	-1	+0	-1	+2	+4	0.3
2021	27	MLB MLE	St. Louis Cardinals	—	402	356	71	10	1	20	35	103	9	4	1	199	287	402	689	202	216	26	9	309	95	-2	+0	+6	+4	+9	1.8
2022	28	MLB MLE	St. Louis Cardinals	—	237	210	33	9	0	6	21	79	4	3	2	157	247	286	533	129	213	33	9	248	54	-13	-0	+5	+5	+5	0.2
2022	28	AAA MLE	Memphis Redbirds	—	230	208	38	8	0	11	13	64	2	1	1	183	238	380	617	197	185	28	6	268	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	29	MLB MLE	San Francisco Giants	—	400	372	79	13	0	15	21	121	5	4	4	212	264	368	632	156	264	30	5	281	76	-11	-1	+9	+5	+9	1.0
2023	29	AAA MLE	Memphis Redbirds	—	40	36	9	2	0	1	3	15	1	0	0	250	325	389	714	139	417	38	8	347	121	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	30	MLB MLE	Kansas City Royals	—	482	445	103	17	0	26	23	156	9	2	2	231	283	445	728	213	285	32	5	318	101	+1	-0	+5	+5	+10	2.1
2025	31	MLB MLE	Washington Nationals	—	208	193	44	10	0	6	11	70	1	4	0	228	273	373	646	145	317	34	5	283	78	-6	+1	+0	+1	+5	0.1
2025	31	AA MLE	Harrisburg Senators	—	46	41	10	1	0	1	3	15	1	1	1	244	311	341	653	98	320	33	7	271	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	32	AAA MLE	Toledo Mud Hens	—	110	92	12	3	0	4	14	34	2	0	1	130	259	293	553	163	145	31	13	258	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	21	A MLE	2 teams	—	292	267	68	13	3	7	18	72	5	13	4	255	314	404	718	150	321	25	6	310	96	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	21	A RAW	2 teams	—	292	256	81	18	3	9	29	52	5	13	4	316	397	516	912	199	365	18	10	400	96	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	22	AA MLE	2 teams	—	626	577	125	27	2	17	31	195	10	4	3	217	269	359	627	142	290	31	5	277	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	22	AA RAW	2 teams	—	626	565	145	30	2	23	43	165	10	4	3	257	320	439	759	182	317	26	7	333	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	23	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	633	597	163	32	1	37	27	183	6	1	2	273	311	516	827	243	332	29	4	356	127	+21	-1	-8	+7	+14	3.3
2017	23	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	633	594	172	35	1	38	30	170	6	1	2	290	330	544	874	254	345	27	5	379	127	+21	-1	-8	+7	+14	3.3
2018	24	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	505	452	109	26	1	21	35	128	12	1	1	241	313	442	755	201	285	25	7	333	111	+7	-0	-4	+5	+11	1.9
2018	24	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	505	449	109	27	1	20	37	127	12	1	1	243	317	441	758	198	289	25	7	332	111	+7	-0	-4	+5	+11	1.9
2019	25	MLB MLE	St. Louis Cardinals	—	664	584	137	30	1	32	61	149	13	9	5	235	321	454	774	219	257	22	9	342	118	+14	-0	+10	+7	+14	4.6
2019	25	MLB RAW	St. Louis Cardinals	—	664	583	136	31	1	30	62	149	13	9	5	233	321	444	765	211	259	22	9	337	118	+14	-0	+10	+7	+14	4.6
2020	26	MLB MLE	St. Louis Cardinals	—	174	152	38	6	0	3	17	50	1	1	0	250	329	349	678	99	340	29	10	306	93	-1	+0	-1	+2	+4	0.3
2020	26	MLB RAW	St. Louis Cardinals	—	174	152	38	6	0	3	17	50	1	1	0	250	329	349	678	99	340	29	10	303	93	-1	+0	-1	+2	+4	0.3
2021	27	MLB MLE	St. Louis Cardinals	—	402	356	71	10	1	20	35	103	9	4	1	199	287	402	689	202	217	26	9	309	95	-2	+0	+6	+4	+9	1.8
2021	27	MLB RAW	St. Louis Cardinals	—	402	356	70	10	1	19	35	103	9	4	1	197	285	390	675	194	216	26	9	302	95	-2	+0	+6	+4	+9	1.8
2022	28	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	467	418	71	16	0	18	34	143	6	4	3	170	242	337	580	167	199	31	7	258	61	-22	-0	+5	+5	+10	-0.2
2022	28	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	467	411	83	19	0	23	41	131	6	4	3	202	284	416	700	214	226	28	9	305	61	-22	-0	+5	+5	+10	-0.2
2023	29	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	440	408	89	15	0	17	24	136	6	4	4	218	272	380	652	162	280	31	5	287	80	-10	-1	+9	+5	+10	1.2
2023	29	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	440	406	89	16	0	16	26	133	6	4	4	219	276	377	653	158	282	30	6	291	80	-10	-1	+9	+5	+10	1.2
2024	30	MLB MLE	Kansas City Royals	—	482	445	103	17	0	26	23	156	9	2	2	231	283	445	728	213	287	32	5	318	101	+1	-0	+5	+5	+10	2.1
2024	30	MLB RAW	Kansas City Royals	—	482	445	101	17	0	24	23	156	9	2	2	227	279	427	706	200	285	32	5	309	101	+1	-0	+5	+5	+10	2.1
2025	31	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	254	234	54	11	0	7	14	85	2	5	1	231	280	368	648	137	322	33	6	281	76	-7	+1	+0	+1	+6	0.0
2025	31	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	254	233	55	11	0	7	15	82	2	5	1	236	288	373	661	137	324	32	6	292	76	-7	+1	+0	+1	+6	0.0
2026	32	AAA MLE	Toledo Mud Hens	—	110	92	12	3	0	4	14	34	2	0	1	130	259	293	553	163	143	31	13	258	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	32	AAA RAW	Toledo Mud Hens	—	110	85	16	4	0	6	21	28	2	0	1	188	361	447	808	259	189	25	19	356	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	21	A MLE	2 teams	—	292	267	68	13	3	7	18	72	5	13	4	255	314	404	718	150	321	25	6	310	96	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	22	AA MLE	2 teams	—	626	580	125	27	2	17	31	195	10	4	3	216	269	357	626	141	287	31	5	277	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	23	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	633	595	163	32	1	37	27	183	6	1	2	274	311	518	829	244	332	29	4	356	127	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	24	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	505	453	109	26	1	21	35	128	12	1	1	241	313	442	754	201	288	25	7	333	111	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	25	MLB MLE	St. Louis Cardinals	—	664	585	137	30	1	32	61	149	13	9	5	234	321	453	774	219	259	22	9	342	118	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	26	MLB MLE	St. Louis Cardinals	—	174	154	38	6	0	3	17	50	1	1	0	247	329	344	674	97	340	29	10	306	93	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	27	MLB MLE	St. Louis Cardinals	—	402	355	71	10	1	20	35	103	9	4	1	200	287	403	690	203	216	26	9	309	95	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	28	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	467	424	71	16	0	18	34	143	6	4	3	167	242	333	575	165	199	31	7	258	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	29	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	440	407	89	15	0	17	24	136	6	4	4	219	272	381	653	162	278	31	5	287	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	30	MLB MLE	Kansas City Royals	—	482	447	103	17	0	26	23	156	9	2	2	230	283	443	726	213	285	32	5	318	101	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	31	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	254	236	54	11	0	7	14	85	2	5	1	229	280	364	644	136	317	33	6	281	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	32	AAA MLE	Toledo Mud Hens	—	110	93	12	3	0	4	14	34	2	0	1	129	259	290	550	161	145	31	13	258	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	30	MLB MLE	Kansas City Royals	—	482	447	103	17	0	26	23	156	9	2	2	230	283	443	726	213	285	32	5	318	101	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	31	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	254	236	54	11	0	7	14	85	2	5	1	229	280	364	644	136	317	33	6	281	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	32	AAA MLE	Toledo Mud Hens	—	110	93	12	3	0	4	14	34	2	0	1	129	259	290	550	161	145	31	13	258	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	33	MLB MLE	DET	10%	220	200	42	8	0	9	15	67	3	3	1	213	279	395	673	182	265	30	7	298	87	-3	+0	+0	+2	+5	0.2
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	33	MLB CTX	DET	10%	14	13	3	0	0	1	1	4	0	0	0	208	274	383	658	175	260	29	7	291	87	-0	+0	+0	+0	+0	0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	34	MLB MLE	DET	100%	110	101	20	4	0	4	7	34	1	0	0	203	267	373	640	170	255	31	6	284	78	-3	+0	-5	+1	+2	-0.4
2028	34	MLB CTX	DET	100%	110	101	20	4	0	4	7	34	1	0	0	199	264	362	626	163	251	31	6	278	78	-3	+0	-5	+1	+2	-0.4
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	3610	3265	743	151	4	150	254	1009	59	29	15	228	295	414	709	187	277	28	7	313	95	-8	-0	+17	+42	+78	13.2
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	588	134	27	1	27	46	182	11	5	3	228	297	415	712	187	278	28	7	313	95	-1	-0	+3	+8	+14	2.4
Career	—	MLE		—	5295	4807	1086	215	9	219	349	1509	84	50	27	226	290	411	701	185	277	28	7	308	95	-10	+0	+17	+44	+81	13.5
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	590	133	26	1	27	43	185	10	6	3	225	289	410	699	185	275	28	7	308	95	-2	+0	+3	+8	+14	2.3

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAAToledo Mud Hens · 110 PAwOBA .354 → .258 (−96)K% 25.5% → 30.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	25.45%	÷1.000	×1.200	—	—	30.55%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	19.09%	÷1.000	×0.690	—	×0.942	12.41%
HBP% /PA	1.82%	—	×0.940	—	×0.942	1.61%
Singles /BIP	10.53%	÷1.000	×0.930	×0.950	×0.942	8.76%
Doubles /BIP	7.02%	÷1.000	×0.830	×0.950	×0.942	5.21%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.970	×0.950	×0.942	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	10.53%	÷1.000	×0.700	—	×0.942	6.94%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 33 vs a level average of 27.2 → −5.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (5.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .354 → .258; ISO .259 → .187; BABIP .189 → .145. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAHarrisburg Senators · 46 PAwOBA .326 → .271 (−54)K% 26.1% → 31.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	26.09%	÷0.997	×1.220	—	—	31.94%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	8.70%	÷0.967	×0.700	—	×0.940	5.92%
HBP% /PA	2.17%	—	×0.850	—	×0.940	1.74%
Singles /BIP	32.14%	÷1.009	×0.970	—	×0.940	29.06%
Doubles /BIP	3.57%	÷0.887	×0.860	—	×0.940	3.26%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.913	×0.950	—	×0.940	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	3.57%	÷0.963	×0.780	—	×0.940	2.72%

Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 93, 1B 102, 2B 77, 3B 83, K 99, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 32 vs a level average of 24.8 → −6.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (7.2 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .326 → .271; ISO .100 → .079; BABIP .357 → .320. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAAMemphis Redbirds · 40 PAwOBA .452 → .347 (−105)K% 30.0% → 36.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	30.00%	÷0.990	×1.200	—	—	36.38%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	12.50%	÷1.010	×0.690	—	×0.972	8.30%
HBP% /PA	2.50%	—	×0.940	—	×0.972	2.28%
Singles /BIP	31.82%	÷1.040	×0.930	—	×0.972	27.65%
Doubles /BIP	13.64%	÷0.969	×0.830	—	×0.972	11.36%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.150	×0.970	—	×0.972	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	9.09%	÷0.955	×0.700	—	×0.972	6.48%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 91, 1B 108, 2B 94, 3B 130, K 98, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 30 vs a level average of 27.2 → −2.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .452 → .347; ISO .265 → .192; BABIP .500 → .417. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAAMemphis Redbirds · 230 PAwOBA .368 → .268 (−100)K% 22.6% → 27.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	22.61%	÷0.976	×1.200	—	—	27.81%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	8.70%	÷1.053	×0.690	—	×0.982	5.59%
HBP% /PA	0.87%	—	×0.940	—	×0.982	0.80%
Singles /BIP	15.44%	÷1.051	×0.930	×0.958	×0.982	12.85%
Doubles /BIP	6.71%	÷1.019	×0.830	×0.958	×0.982	5.14%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.150	×0.970	×0.958	×0.982	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	11.41%	÷1.048	×0.700	—	×0.982	7.49%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 110, 1B 110, 2B 104, 3B 130, K 95, BB 111 — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 27.2 → −1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.958.

Result: wOBA .368 → .268; ISO .303 → .208; BABIP .237 → .185. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 AAAMemphis Redbirds · 15 PAwOBA .433 → .377 (−56)K% 26.7% → 35.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	26.67%	÷0.975	×1.290	—	—	35.28%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	6.67%	÷0.960	×0.710	—	×1.033	5.09%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.980	—	×1.033	0.00%
Singles /BIP	11.11%	÷0.984	×0.900	—	×1.033	10.49%
Doubles /BIP	22.22%	÷0.957	×0.810	—	×1.033	19.43%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.984	×0.810	—	×1.033	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	11.11%	÷0.909	×0.780	—	×1.033	9.84%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 82, 1B 97, 2B 91, 3B 97, K 95, BB 92 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .433 → .377; ISO .385 → .337; BABIP .333 → .295. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 AAAMemphis Redbirds · 190 PAwOBA .382 → .306 (−76)K% 24.2% → 30.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	24.21%	÷1.010	×1.290	—	—	30.93%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	4.74%	÷0.997	×0.710	—	×1.048	3.54%
HBP% /PA	1.05%	—	×0.980	—	×1.048	1.08%
Singles /BIP	23.66%	÷1.001	×0.900	×0.961	×1.048	21.42%
Doubles /BIP	6.87%	÷1.021	×0.810	×0.961	×1.048	5.48%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.135	×0.810	×0.961	×1.048	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	9.92%	÷0.980	×0.780	—	×1.048	8.28%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 96, 1B 100, 2B 104, 3B 127, K 102, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 27.2 → +4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.961.

Result: wOBA .382 → .306; ISO .271 → .210; BABIP .336 → .291. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2016 AASpringfield Cardinals · 552 PAwOBA .338 → .277 (−61)K% 26.1% → 31.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	26.09%	÷1.019	×1.220	—	—	31.22%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	6.88%	÷0.999	×0.700	—	×1.027	4.95%
HBP% /PA	1.81%	—	×0.870	—	×1.027	1.62%
Singles /BIP	21.59%	÷0.966	×0.920	×0.966	×1.027	20.41%
Doubles /BIP	8.24%	÷0.986	×0.840	×0.966	×1.027	6.96%
Triples /BIP	0.57%	÷0.900	×0.940	×0.966	×1.027	0.59%
Home runs /BIP	6.25%	÷1.155	×0.800	—	×1.027	4.45%

Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 131, 1B 93, 2B 97, 3B 80, K 104, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.966.

Result: wOBA .338 → .277; ISO .200 → .149; BABIP .318 → .287. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2015 APeoria Chiefs · 247 PAwOBA .349 → .284 (−65)K% 17.4% → 23.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	17.41%	÷0.992	×1.360	—	—	23.87%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	9.31%	÷1.086	×0.690	—	—	5.92%
HBP% /PA	1.21%	—	×0.780	—	—	0.95%
Singles /BIP	24.43%	÷0.982	×0.920	×0.987	—	22.59%
Doubles /BIP	6.82%	÷1.036	×0.830	×0.987	—	5.39%
Triples /BIP	1.70%	÷0.900	×0.910	×0.987	—	1.70%
Home runs /BIP	2.84%	÷0.992	×0.800	—	—	2.29%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 98, 1B 96, 2B 107, 3B 80, K 98, BB 117 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.0 → +0.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.987.

Result: wOBA .349 → .284; ISO .151 → .122; BABIP .335 → .300. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Rougned Odorlast yr '23 career totals — 10 seasons, 4,424 PA	6.7	4,424	178	70	230	288	422	+16	+32	15.2	15.0
/162	664	27	11	+2.4	+4.9	2.3	pk7: 15
#2Zack Cozartlast yr '19 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,350 PA	5.0	3,350	85	21	246	300	398	+33	+38	14.2	14.8
/162	664	17	4	+6.6	+7.6	2.8	pk7: 15
#3Jose Hernandez'91-'06 * career totals — 14 seasons, 5,089 PA	7.7	5,089	168	41	242*	299*	406*	+28	+19	13.0	14.3
/162	664	22	5	+3.7	+2.5	1.7	pk7: 16
#4Mike Pagliarulo'84-'95 * career totals — 11 seasons, 4,317 PA	6.5	4,317	134	18	238*	304*	423*	+14	+21	14.1	14.0
/162	664	21	3	+2.2	+3.2	2.2	pk7: 14
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 10 projected seasons	5.5	3,624	151	30	228	293	416	+38	+39	12.8	13.0
/162	664	28	5	+7.0	+7.1	2.3	pk7: 13
#5Danny Espinosalast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,267 PA	4.9	3,267	98	64	221	297	378	+16	+36	11.0	11.4
/162	664	20	13	+3.2	+7.3	2.2	pk7: 12
#6Kevin Elster'86-'00 * career totals — 9 seasons, 3,225 PA	4.9	3,225	88	14	223*	294*	388*	+34	+9	7.9	8.1
/162	664	18	3	+7.0	+1.9	1.6	pk7: 8

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Paul DeJong (OGILVIE)	33	35	55	45	35	211/276/391	180	265	6	2	30%	7%	87	+0.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Cody Ransom 2009 · MLB	33	38→39	53→55	48→50	44	206/269/380	173	255	22	11	29%	7%	81	-0.1	212/273/380	168	268	20	10	28%	7%	82	+0.0	206/286/402	196	277	25	6	34%	9%	92	+0.4
✕Carlos Pérez 2024 · MLB	33	38→48	53→55	46→45	46	209/273/378	169	228	23	2	21%	7%	82	+0.0	209/273/380	171	232	21	3	21%	7%	82	+0.0	196/260/370	174	213	22	1	21%	7%	73	-0.4
✕Anthony Recker 2016 · MLB	32	37→47	52→50	45	42	200/266/362	162	268	21	5	33%	8%	76	-0.4	205/275/343	138	277	15	5	30%	8%	75	-0.5	193/262/327	134	259	15	2	30%	7%	64	-0.6
✕Dustin Garneau 2022 · MLB	34	36→38	56→50	47→45	44	203/278/395	192	255	24	5	31%	8%	88	+0.5	196/273/342	146	258	17	7	30%	7%	74	-0.5	133/224/239	106	174	13	2	31%	7%	32	-1.2
✕Donnie Murphy 2014 · MLB	31	41→40	55→65	47→45	41	221/283/406	185	271	23	7	28%	6%	93	+0.8	203/267/337	134	257	16	6	27%	6%	71	-0.8	166/234/261	95	210	12	0	27%	7%	39	-1.0
✕Miguel Olivo 2012 · MLB	34	45→50	54→60	45→50	38	236/272/409	172	291	23	8	28%	5%	88	+0.5	234/266/399	165	293	22	6	28%	4%	84	+0.1	230/263/370	140	302	17	9	29%	4%	74	-0.3
✕Taylor Motter 2023 · MLB	33	40→49	54→50	49→55	51	216/293/397	181	254	23	4	25%	10%	94	+0.9	208/272/342	134	281	15	11	30%	8%	73	-0.6	181/242/282	101	257	10	13	32%	7%	45	-1.4
✕John Hicks 2023 · MLB	33	40→50	53→55	49→50	35	216/253/385	169	288	21	13	33%	4%	76	-0.4	204/256/330	126	288	13	17	32%	6%	64	-1.3	155/214/229	73	228	6	27	33%	6%	25	-1.4
✕Valentino Pascucci 2011 · AAA	32	39→42	53→55	47→45	49	210/294/381	171	272	22	4	31%	10%	91	+0.6	204/286/360	156	292	20	3	35%	10%	83	+0.1	191/278/337	147	274	19	0	36%	10%	73	-0.5
✕Eliezer Alfonzo 2012 · MLB	33	42→52	53→55	45→40	36	225/260/391	166	267	23	5	26%	3%	80	-0.1	246/278/430	184	288	26	4	25%	3%	97	+1.1	246/273/407	160	291	24	2	24%	2%	86	+0.2
●Robinson Chirinos 2017 · MLB	33	43→46	56→60	40→50	49	229/308/427	198	263	24	3	23%	8%	107	+1.8	236/339/446	210	295	26	4	28%	10%	122	+3.0	229/342/435	206	294	26	2	29%	11%	120	+1.8
✕Tim Beckham 2022 · MLB	32	44→54	54→55	45→50	41	231/279/407	176	294	22	6	29%	6%	91	+0.6	253/306/387	134	334	16	9	28%	6%	96	+1.0	302/351/401	100	411	13	6	28%	5%	109	+0.6
✕Mike Hessman 2010 · MLB	32	34→35	58→65	42→45	41	197/273/403	206	265	27	5	36%	8%	88	+0.5	195/259/381	186	251	25	4	33%	7%	78	-0.3	185/246/365	180	222	24	3	30%	7%	68	-0.8
✕Brooks Conrad 2014 · MLB	34	43	57→55	41→50	43	228/292/425	197	305	26	6	33%	8%	100	+1.3	194/252/339	145	256	18	4	31%	6%	65	-1.2	168/226/298	130	218	16	1	31%	6%	45	-1.5
✕Carlos M. Rodriguez 2014 · AAA	32	40→42	52→50	42→40	39	212/270/375	162	293	22	4	35%	6%	80	-0.1	205/263/322	117	289	14	4	32%	6%	65	-1.2	208/254/310	102	292	10	1	31%	5%	57	-1.1
✕Eric Haase 2024 · MLB	31	44→42	50→65	48→40	42	227/277/378	151	289	19	6	28%	6%	83	+0.1	224/281/371	147	317	19	5	34%	7%	83	+0.1	213/275/368	155	309	22	1	37%	7%	80	-0.0
✕Luke Montz 2015 · MLB	32	36→44	59→55	41→40	44	210/279/417	208	258	29	5	31%	8%	94	+0.9	197/266/341	144	289	15	8	35%	8%	71	-0.8	128/202/252	124	189	12	3	38%	8%	26	-1.3
✕Trayce Thompson 2024 · MLB	33	42→49	57→60	49→50	45	217/303/416	200	313	26	8	37%	10%	102	+1.5	188/254/334	146	272	18	12	36%	8%	65	-1.2	164/225/296	132	232	16	12	36%	7%	44	-1.9
✕Kyle Garlick 2024 · MLB	32	39→49	52→60	46→40	40	206/273/366	160	290	21	5	36%	7%	80	-0.2	190/256/324	134	269	16	4	34%	7%	63	-1.3	164/231/286	122	226	16	1	34%	7%	44	-2.9
✕Lorenzo Quintana 2021 · AAA	32	42	52→50	45	38	224/267/387	163	268	20	9	25%	4%	82	-0.0	228/275/367	139	283	15	5	25%	5%	80	-0.2	222/269/358	136	272	15	2	24%	4%	73	-0.3

Paul DeJong

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps