Anthony Santander

RF Buffalo Bisons

Age 32 S/R 6'1" / 230 lbs AAA Svc 8.942 · Ctrl thru 2029 ILInjured 60-Day (D60)

Overview

AAAIL-6040-MANExtFA 2028

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2024	29	MLBBAL	665	.235/.311/.506	44	2	121	2.0
2025	30	AAATOR	38	.219/.342/.469	2	0	70	—	.176/.263/.382
2025	30	MLBTOR	221	.175/.273/.294	6	0	61	-1.1
2026	31	AAATOR	21	.235/.381/.294	0	0	56	—	.222/.333/.278
2027PROJ45% MLB	32	MLBTOR	37	.229/.308/.443	2	0	109	0.1
2028PROJ	33	MLBTOR	118	.220/.298/.423	6	0	101	-0.3

Last 3 seasons WAR 1.0 · Next 2 projected WAR -0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2029Service8.942First FA2028Options2

2027Ext$18M2028Ext$18M2029Ext$18M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2023-2025

Avg EV64

Barrel%62

xwOBA56

Bat Spd56

Speed20

CompsGarrett Jones (age 32) · Luis Valbuena (age 32) · Rick Ankiel (age 31)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†vL 109109vR 109

AVG/OBP/SLG.229 / .308 / .443

PA37

HR2

K%22

BB%8

BABIP247

ISO206

MLB%45%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$36M ctrl surplus

Tools · Splits · Contract

ToolsStatcast %ile · 2023-2025

CONTACT

xAVG

150.223

POWER

Barrel%

6210.0

Avg EV

6490.1

Bat Spd

5672.0

SPEED

Sprint

2026.0

Platoon Splits2024-2025 · 886 PA

vs LHP

vs RHP

Edge

235

651

—

wRC+

111

▶R

wOBA

311

333

▶R

ISO

211

241

▶R

BABIP

232

221

◀L

26.8%

19.5%

▶▶R

BB%

8.9%

—

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status FA

MLB Debut 2017

Service 8.942 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2029

First FA Year 2028

OPTDEF 20%

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Ext	$18M	+0.1	$0.4M	-$18M
2028	Ext	$18M	—	—	—
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$37M		$-0.8M	-$36M

Options · projected decision
2030	CLUB OPT	$18.5M / $0.0M buyout	DECLINE
2031	CLUB OPT	$15.0M / $5.0M buyout	DECLINE

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2012	17	ROK	AZL Indians	—	176	154	47	15	1	4	13	37	7	6	3	305	385	494	879	188	374	21	7	386	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	18	A	Lake County Captains	—	238	219	53	13	0	5	13	43	6	6	3	242	303	370	672	128	281	18	5	304	52	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	19	A	Lake County Captains	—	181	163	30	9	1	1	17	49	0	2	0	184	261	270	531	86	254	27	9	245	7	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	20	A	Lake County Captains	—	276	248	69	16	0	10	18	53	6	4	2	278	342	464	806	185	312	19	7	352	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	20	INTL	Navegantes del Magallanes	—	22	20	2	0	0	0	1	5	1	1	0	100	182	100	282		133	23	5	147	-14	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	21	A+	Lynchburg Hillcats	—	574	500	145	42	0	20	54	118	12	10	5	290	373	494	867	204	339	21	9	378	89	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	22	MLB	Baltimore Orioles	—	31	30	8	3	0	0	0	8	0	0	0	267	267	367	633	100	348	26	0	270	70	-1	+0	+0	-2	+1	-0.2
2017	22	AA	Bowie Baysox	—	59	50	19	5	0	5	7	9	1	0	0	380	466	780	1.246	400	378	15	12	518	190	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	22	INTL	Salt River Rafters	—	77	72	15	4	1	1	2	18	1	1	0	208	240	333	573	125	255	23	3	248	54	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	23	MLB	Baltimore Orioles	—	108	101	20	5	1	1	6	21	1	1	0	198	250	297	547	99	241	19	6	248	53	-6	+0	+0	-6	+2	-1.0
2018	23	AAA	Norfolk Tides	—	47	44	8	3	0	2	2	9	0	0	0	182	217	386	604	205	176	19	4	258	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	23	AA	Bowie Baysox	—	222	209	54	9	3	5	10	32	1	4	1	258	295	402	697	144	282	14	5	306	64	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	23	INTL	Tigres de Aragua	—	207	183	46	13	2	5	18	26	2	3	0	251	325	426	751	175	266	13	9	328	108	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	24	MLB	Baltimore Orioles	—	405	380	99	20	1	20	19	86	2	1	2	261	299	476	776	216	285	21	5	336	107	+3	-1	-5	-7	+9	-0.0
2019	24	AAA	Norfolk Tides	—	209	193	50	15	0	5	13	38	2	3	2	259	312	415	727	155	298	18	6	322	64	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	25	MLB	Baltimore Orioles	—	165	153	40	13	1	11	10	25	2	0	1	261	315	575	890	314	248	15	6	383	128	+6	-0	+2	-2	+4	0.9
2021	26	MLB	Baltimore Orioles	—	438	406	98	24	0	18	23	101	4	1	1	241	289	433	722	192	275	23	5	315	94	-3	-0	-7	-5	+9	-0.5
2022	27	MLB	Baltimore Orioles	—	647	574	138	24	0	33	55	122	13	0	2	240	321	455	776	214	248	19	9	341	114	+11	-1	-6	-7	+14	1.1
2023	28	MLB	Baltimore Orioles	—	656	591	152	41	1	28	55	152	6	5	1	257	327	472	799	215	299	23	8	350	119	+15	+1	-3	-7	+14	1.9
2024	29	MLB	Baltimore Orioles	—	665	595	140	25	2	44	58	129	7	2	0	235	311	506	816	271	225	19	9	353	121	+17	+0	-5	-7	+14	2.0
2025	30	MLB	Toronto Blue Jays	—	221	194	34	5	0	6	25	61	1	0	0	175	273	294	567	119	219	28	11	262	61	-10	+0	-2	-3	+5	-1.1
2025	30	AAA	Buffalo Bisons	—	38	32	7	2	0	2	6	6	0	0	0	219	342	469	811	250	208	16	16	359	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	31	AAA	Buffalo Bisons	—	21	17	4	1	0	0	4	4	0	0	0	235	381	294	675	59	308	19	19	323	56	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	3336	3024	729	160	6	161	251	705	36	10	7	241	307	458	765	217	260	21	8	334	112	+49	-1	-26	-45	+72	5.1
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2012	17	ROK MLE	AZL Indians	—	176	159	35	10	1	3	8	53	7	6	3	220	287	352	640	132	290	30	5	271	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	18	A MLE	Lake County Captains	—	238	222	45	11	0	4	10	59	6	6	3	203	256	306	563	104	254	25	4	245	52	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	19	A MLE	Lake County Captains	—	181	168	23	6	1	1	12	68	0	2	0	137	194	202	397	65	217	38	7	179	7	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	20	A MLE	Lake County Captains	—	276	255	58	14	0	7	11	71	6	4	2	227	276	365	640	137	271	26	4	274	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	21	A+ MLE	Lynchburg Hillcats	—	574	521	122	31	0	18	33	175	12	10	5	234	295	397	692	163	303	30	6	300	89	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	22	MLB MLE	Baltimore Orioles	—	31	30	8	3	0	0	0	8	0	0	0	267	267	367	633	100	348	26	0	271	70	-1	+0	+0	-2	+1	-0.2
2017	22	AA MLE	Bowie Baysox	—	59	53	17	4	0	4	4	11	1	0	0	321	379	623	1.002	302	349	19	7	449	190	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	23	MLB MLE	Baltimore Orioles	—	108	101	20	5	1	1	6	21	1	1	0	198	250	297	547	99	241	19	6	246	53	-6	+0	+0	-6	+2	-1.0
2018	23	AAA MLE	Norfolk Tides	—	47	45	7	2	0	2	1	11	0	0	0	156	174	333	507	178	159	23	2	224	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	23	AA MLE	Bowie Baysox	—	222	212	50	8	3	4	7	41	1	4	1	236	264	358	622	123	265	18	3	263	64	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	24	MLB MLE	Baltimore Orioles	—	405	380	96	20	1	18	19	86	2	1	2	253	292	453	744	200	285	21	5	326	107	+3	-1	-5	-7	+9	-0.0
2019	24	AAA MLE	Norfolk Tides	—	209	198	43	12	0	5	8	47	2	3	2	217	255	354	608	136	257	22	4	263	64	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	25	MLB MLE	Baltimore Orioles	—	165	156	39	13	1	10	7	25	2	0	1	250	291	538	829	288	248	15	4	358	128	+6	-0	+2	-2	+4	0.9
2021	26	MLB MLE	Baltimore Orioles	—	438	406	95	24	0	16	23	101	4	1	1	234	282	411	693	177	275	23	5	307	94	-3	-0	-7	-5	+9	-0.5
2022	27	MLB MLE	Baltimore Orioles	—	647	575	136	23	0	33	54	122	13	0	2	237	316	449	765	212	248	19	8	337	114	+11	-1	-6	-7	+14	1.1
2023	28	MLB MLE	Baltimore Orioles	—	656	592	149	39	1	28	54	152	6	5	1	252	321	463	783	211	299	23	8	344	119	+15	+1	-3	-7	+14	1.9
2024	29	MLB MLE	Baltimore Orioles	—	665	598	138	24	2	44	55	129	7	2	0	231	303	498	801	268	225	19	8	347	121	+17	+0	-5	-7	+14	2.0
2025	30	MLB MLE	Toronto Blue Jays	—	221	195	34	5	0	6	24	61	1	0	0	174	268	292	560	118	219	28	11	258	61	-10	+0	-2	-3	+5	-1.1
2025	30	AAA MLE	Buffalo Bisons	—	38	34	6	1	0	2	4	7	0	0	0	176	263	382	646	206	169	18	11	272	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	31	AAA MLE	Buffalo Bisons	—	21	18	4	1	0	0	3	5	0	0	0	222	333	278	611	56	265	24	14	251	56	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	17	ROK MLE	AZL Indians	—	176	159	35	10	1	3	8	53	7	6	3	220	287	352	640	132	305	30	5	271	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	17	ROK RAW	AZL Indians	—	176	154	47	15	1	4	13	37	7	6	3	305	385	494	879	188	374	21	7	386	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	18	A MLE	Lake County Captains	—	238	222	45	11	0	4	10	59	6	6	3	203	256	306	563	104	258	25	4	245	52	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	18	A RAW	Lake County Captains	—	238	219	53	13	0	5	13	43	6	6	3	242	303	370	672	128	281	18	5	304	52	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	19	A MLE	Lake County Captains	—	181	168	23	6	1	1	12	68	0	2	0	137	194	202	397	65	220	38	7	179	7	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	19	A RAW	Lake County Captains	—	181	163	30	9	1	1	17	49	0	2	0	184	261	270	531	86	254	27	9	245	7	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	20	A MLE	2 teams	—	298	275	62	15	0	7	12	77	7	5	2	225	276	356	632	131	282	26	4	274	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	20	A RAW	2 teams	—	298	268	71	16	0	10	19	58	7	5	2	265	330	437	766	172	299	19	6	337	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	21	A+ MLE	Lynchburg Hillcats	—	574	521	122	31	0	18	33	175	12	10	5	234	295	397	692	163	310	30	6	300	89	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	21	A+ RAW	Lynchburg Hillcats	—	574	500	145	42	0	20	54	118	12	10	5	290	373	494	867	204	339	21	9	378	89	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	22	INTL MLE	3 teams	—	167	153	49	14	0	8	8	36	2	1	0	320	362	569	931	248	363	22	5	388	149	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	22	INTL RAW	3 teams	—	167	152	42	12	1	6	9	35	2	1	0	276	325	487	812	211	313	21	5	348	149	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	23	AA MLE	4 teams	—	584	550	118	24	6	10	23	112	4	8	1	215	251	335	586	120	249	19	4	253	58	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	23	AA RAW	4 teams	—	584	537	128	30	6	13	36	88	4	8	1	238	291	389	680	151	261	15	6	299	58	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	24	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	614	578	141	33	1	23	27	133	4	4	4	244	282	424	706	180	277	22	4	305	92	-6	-1	-5	-7	+13	-0.5
2019	24	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	614	573	149	35	1	25	32	124	4	4	4	260	304	455	759	195	290	20	5	331	92	-6	-1	-5	-7	+13	-0.5
2020	25	MLB MLE	Baltimore Orioles	—	165	156	39	13	1	10	7	25	2	0	1	250	291	538	829	288	240	15	4	358	128	+6	-0	+2	-2	+4	0.9
2020	25	MLB RAW	Baltimore Orioles	—	165	153	40	13	1	11	10	25	2	0	1	261	315	575	890	314	248	15	6	383	128	+6	-0	+2	-2	+4	0.9
2021	26	MLB MLE	Baltimore Orioles	—	438	406	95	24	0	16	23	101	4	1	1	234	282	411	693	177	270	23	5	307	94	-3	-0	-7	-5	+9	-0.5
2021	26	MLB RAW	Baltimore Orioles	—	438	406	98	24	0	18	23	101	4	1	1	241	289	433	722	192	275	23	5	315	94	-3	-0	-7	-5	+9	-0.5
2022	27	MLB MLE	Baltimore Orioles	—	647	575	136	23	0	33	54	122	13	0	2	237	316	449	765	212	242	19	8	337	114	+11	-1	-6	-7	+14	1.1
2022	27	MLB RAW	Baltimore Orioles	—	647	574	138	24	0	33	55	122	13	0	2	240	321	455	776	214	248	19	9	341	114	+11	-1	-6	-7	+14	1.1
2023	28	MLB MLE	Baltimore Orioles	—	656	592	149	39	1	28	54	152	6	5	1	252	321	463	783	211	291	23	8	344	119	+15	+1	-3	-7	+14	1.9
2023	28	MLB RAW	Baltimore Orioles	—	656	591	152	41	1	28	55	152	6	5	1	257	327	472	799	215	299	23	8	350	119	+15	+1	-3	-7	+14	1.9
2024	29	MLB MLE	Baltimore Orioles	—	665	598	138	24	2	44	55	129	7	2	0	231	303	498	801	268	219	19	8	347	121	+17	+0	-5	-7	+14	2.0
2024	29	MLB RAW	Baltimore Orioles	—	665	595	140	25	2	44	58	129	7	2	0	235	311	506	816	271	225	19	9	353	121	+17	+0	-5	-7	+14	2.0
2025	30	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	259	229	41	7	0	8	28	68	1	0	0	179	271	314	586	135	214	26	11	260	62	-12	+0	-2	-3	+6	-1.1
2025	30	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	259	226	41	7	0	8	31	67	1	0	0	181	283	319	602	137	217	26	12	276	62	-12	+0	-2	-3	+6	-1.1
2026	31	AAA MLE	Buffalo Bisons	—	21	18	4	1	0	0	3	5	0	0	0	222	333	278	611	56	308	24	14	251	56	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	31	AAA RAW	Buffalo Bisons	—	21	17	4	1	0	0	4	4	0	0	0	235	381	294	675	59	308	19	19	323	56	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	17	ROK MLE	AZL Indians	—	176	159	35	10	1	3	8	53	7	6	3	220	287	352	640	132	290	30	5	271	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	18	A MLE	Lake County Captains	—	238	220	45	11	0	4	10	59	6	6	3	205	256	309	565	105	254	25	4	245	52	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	19	A MLE	Lake County Captains	—	181	167	23	6	1	1	12	68	0	2	0	138	194	204	398	66	217	38	7	179	7	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	20	A MLE	2 teams	—	298	277	62	15	0	7	12	77	7	5	2	224	276	354	629	130	271	26	4	274	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	21	A+ MLE	Lynchburg Hillcats	—	574	524	122	31	0	18	33	175	12	10	5	233	295	395	690	162	303	30	6	300	89	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	22	INTL MLE	3 teams	—	167	155	49	14	0	8	8	36	2	1	0	316	362	561	923	245	349	22	5	388	149	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	23	AA MLE	4 teams	—	584	552	118	24	6	10	23	112	4	8	1	214	251	333	585	120	245	19	4	253	58	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	24	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	614	578	141	33	1	23	27	133	4	4	4	244	282	424	706	180	276	22	4	305	92	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	25	MLB MLE	Baltimore Orioles	—	165	155	39	13	1	10	7	25	2	0	1	252	291	542	833	290	248	15	4	358	128	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	26	MLB MLE	Baltimore Orioles	—	438	408	95	24	0	16	23	101	4	1	1	233	282	409	691	176	275	23	5	307	94	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	27	MLB MLE	Baltimore Orioles	—	647	575	136	23	0	33	54	122	13	0	2	237	316	449	765	212	248	19	8	337	114	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	28	MLB MLE	Baltimore Orioles	—	656	591	149	39	1	28	54	152	6	5	1	252	321	464	784	212	299	23	8	344	119	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	29	MLB MLE	Baltimore Orioles	—	665	598	138	24	2	44	55	129	7	2	0	231	303	498	801	268	225	19	8	347	121	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	30	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	259	228	41	7	0	8	28	68	1	0	0	180	271	316	587	136	211	26	11	260	62	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	31	AAA MLE	Buffalo Bisons	—	21	18	4	1	0	0	3	5	0	0	0	222	333	278	611	56	265	24	14	251	56	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	29	MLB MLE	Baltimore Orioles	—	665	598	138	24	2	44	55	129	7	2	0	231	303	498	801	268	225	19	8	347	121	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	30	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	259	228	41	7	0	8	28	68	1	0	0	180	271	316	587	136	211	26	11	260	62	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	31	AAA MLE	Buffalo Bisons	—	21	18	4	1	0	0	3	5	0	0	0	222	333	278	611	56	265	24	14	251	56	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	32	MLB MLE	TOR	45%	198	175	41	7	1	10	19	44	2	2	1	228	307	442	749	213	246	22	10	329	109	+2	+0	-0	-2	+4	0.2
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	32	MLB CTX	TOR	45%	37	34	7	1	0	2	3	8	0	0	0	229	308	443	750	214	247	22	8	329	109	+0	+0	-0	-0	+1	0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	33	MLB MLE	TOR	100%	118	105	23	4	0	6	11	27	1	0	0	220	298	422	720	203	239	23	9	317	101	+0	+0	-4	-1	+3	-0.3
2028	33	MLB CTX	TOR	100%	118	105	23	4	0	6	11	27	1	0	0	220	298	423	722	203	240	23	9	318	101	+0	+0	-4	-1	+3	-0.3
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	3454	3129	752	164	6	167	262	732	37	10	7	240	307	457	763	216	260	21	8	334	93	+50	-1	-30	-46	+75	4.8
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	589	141	31	1	31	49	138	7	2	1	239	305	453	759	214	259	21	8	334	93	+9	-0	-6	-9	+14	0.9
Career	—	MLE		—	5884	5379	1237	282	13	223	376	1361	77	51	23	230	290	412	701	182	264	23	6	305	93	+50	-1	-30	-47	+77	5.0
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	594	136	31	1	25	42	150	9	6	3	229	290	411	701	182	262	23	6	305	93	+9	-0	-5	-9	+14	0.9

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAABuffalo Bisons · 21 PAwOBA .316 → .251 (−65)K% 19.0% → 22.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	19.05%	÷1.000	×1.200	—	—	22.86%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	19.05%	÷1.000	×0.690	—	×0.952	12.51%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.940	—	×0.952	0.00%
Singles /BIP	23.08%	÷1.000	×0.930	—	×0.952	20.43%
Doubles /BIP	7.69%	÷1.000	×0.830	—	×0.952	6.08%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.970	—	×0.952	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.700	—	×0.952	0.00%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 32 vs a level average of 27.2 → −4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.8 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .316 → .251; ISO .059 → .049; BABIP .308 → .265. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAABuffalo Bisons · 38 PAwOBA .349 → .272 (−78)K% 15.8% → 19.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	15.79%	÷0.988	×1.200	—	—	19.18%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	15.79%	÷0.984	×0.690	—	×0.962	10.65%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.940	—	×0.962	0.00%
Singles /BIP	11.54%	÷1.007	×0.930	—	×0.962	10.25%
Doubles /BIP	7.69%	÷1.098	×0.830	—	×0.962	5.60%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.986	×0.970	—	×0.962	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	7.69%	÷0.847	×0.700	—	×0.962	6.12%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 69, 1B 101, 2B 120, 3B 97, K 98, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 31 vs a level average of 27.2 → −3.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.8 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .349 → .272; ISO .250 → .200; BABIP .208 → .169. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AAANorfolk Tides · 209 PAwOBA .313 → .263 (−50)K% 18.2% → 22.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	18.18%	÷0.973	×1.200	—	—	22.41%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	5.74%	÷1.103	×0.690	—	×1.033	3.71%
HBP% /PA	0.96%	—	×0.940	—	×1.033	0.93%
Singles /BIP	19.35%	÷1.033	×0.930	×0.950	×1.033	17.11%
Doubles /BIP	9.68%	÷0.990	×0.830	×0.950	×1.033	7.96%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.954	×0.970	×0.950	×1.033	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	3.23%	÷0.889	×0.840	—	×1.033	3.15%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 78, 1B 107, 2B 98, 3B 91, K 95, BB 121 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .313 → .263; ISO .155 → .138; BABIP .298 → .257. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 AABowie Baysox · 222 PAwOBA .301 → .263 (−38)K% 14.4% → 18.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	14.41%	÷0.960	×1.220	—	—	18.32%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	4.50%	÷0.978	×0.700	—	×1.012	3.26%
HBP% /PA	0.45%	—	×0.850	—	×1.012	0.39%
Singles /BIP	20.90%	÷0.996	×0.970	×0.972	×1.012	20.02%
Doubles /BIP	5.08%	÷0.971	×0.860	×0.972	×1.012	4.43%
Triples /BIP	1.69%	÷0.900	×0.950	×0.972	×1.012	1.76%
Home runs /BIP	2.82%	÷1.060	×0.780	—	×1.012	2.10%

Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 112, 1B 99, 2B 94, 3B 80, K 92, BB 96 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.972.

Result: wOBA .301 → .263; ISO .144 → .118; BABIP .282 → .265. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 AAANorfolk Tides · 47 PAwOBA .256 → .224 (−32)K% 19.1% → 22.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	19.15%	÷1.009	×1.200	—	—	22.77%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	4.26%	÷0.997	×0.690	—	×1.048	3.09%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.940	—	×1.048	0.00%
Singles /BIP	8.57%	÷0.984	×0.930	—	×1.048	8.49%
Doubles /BIP	8.57%	÷1.063	×0.830	—	×1.048	7.01%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.150	×0.970	—	×1.048	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	5.71%	÷0.964	×0.840	—	×1.048	5.22%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 93, 1B 97, 2B 113, 3B 130, K 102, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 27.2 → +4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .256 → .224; ISO .205 → .180; BABIP .176 → .159. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 AABowie Baysox · 59 PAwOBA .509 → .449 (−60)K% 15.3% → 19.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	15.25%	÷0.970	×1.220	—	—	19.19%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	10.17%	÷1.061	×0.700	—	×1.027	6.89%
HBP% /PA	1.69%	—	×0.850	—	×1.027	1.48%
Singles /BIP	21.95%	÷0.993	×0.970	—	×1.027	22.01%
Doubles /BIP	12.20%	÷1.043	×0.860	—	×1.027	10.32%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.016	×0.950	—	×1.027	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	12.20%	÷0.998	×0.780	—	×1.027	9.79%

Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 100, 1B 99, 2B 109, 3B 103, K 94, BB 112 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .509 → .449; ISO .400 → .339; BABIP .378 → .349. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2016 A+Lynchburg Hillcats · 574 PAwOBA .372 → .300 (−72)K% 20.6% → 30.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	20.56%	÷0.956	×1.420	—	—	30.53%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	9.23%	÷1.015	×0.630	—	×1.012	5.80%
HBP% /PA	2.09%	—	×0.860	—	×1.012	1.82%
Singles /BIP	21.73%	÷0.969	×0.940	×0.960	×1.012	20.48%
Doubles /BIP	10.99%	÷1.000	×0.830	×0.960	×1.012	8.86%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.037	×0.800	×0.960	×1.012	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	5.24%	÷0.932	×0.900	—	×1.012	5.11%

Factors used: league row CAR. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 86, 1B 94, 2B 100, 3B 107, K 91, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.960.

Result: wOBA .372 → .300; ISO .204 → .172; BABIP .339 → .303. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2015 ALake County Captains · 276 PAwOBA .345 → .274 (−71)K% 19.2% → 25.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	19.20%	÷1.014	×1.360	—	—	25.76%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	5.80%	÷0.995	×0.690	—	×1.015	4.08%
HBP% /PA	2.17%	—	×0.780	—	×1.015	1.72%
Singles /BIP	22.05%	÷1.007	×0.920	×0.950	×1.015	19.42%
Doubles /BIP	8.21%	÷0.902	×0.830	×0.950	×1.015	7.28%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.103	×0.910	×0.950	×1.015	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	5.13%	÷1.169	×0.800	—	×1.015	3.56%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 134, 1B 101, 2B 80, 3B 121, K 103, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .345 → .274; ISO .185 → .137; BABIP .312 → .271. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 9 projected seasons	5.2	3,464	169	10	241	305	460	-37	-36	10.7	11.1
/162	664	32	2	-7.1	-7.0	2.0	pk7: 12
#1Pete Incaviglia'86-'98 * career totals — 11 seasons, 4,677 PA	7.0	4,677	206	33	242*	307*	466*	-56	-19	9.9	10.5
/162	664	29	5	-8.0	-2.7	1.4	pk7: 11
#2Henry Rodriguez'92-'02 * career totals — 9 seasons, 3,343 PA	5.0	3,343	160	10	247*	307*	472*	-39	-10	9.3	10.2
/162	664	32	2	-7.7	-2.0	1.8	pk7: 11
#3Hunter Renfroelast yr '25 career totals — 9 seasons, 3,727 PA	5.6	3,727	188	15	235	297	458	-40	-32	7.3	8.0
/162	664	33	3	-7.1	-5.7	1.3	pk7: 9
#4Nick Esasky'83-'90 * career totals — 7 seasons, 3,064 PA	4.6	3,064	122	18	248*	329*	480*	-33	-30	6.9	7.1
/162	664	26	4	-7.2	-6.5	1.5	pk7: 7
#5Brandon Mosslast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,459 PA	5.2	3,459	160	11	238	315	455	-53	-41	5.9	5.9
/162	664	31	2	-10.2	-7.9	1.1	pk7: 6
#6Franmil Reyeslast yr '23 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,078 PA	3.1	2,078	108	6	249	310	464	-22	-18	5.5	5.5
/162	664	35	2	-7.1	-5.7	1.8	pk7: 6

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Anthony Santander (OGILVIE)	32	—	—	—	—	226/305/438	212	246	5	1	22%	9%	109	+0.3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Garrett Jones 2013 · MLB	32	48→52	59→60	47→50	49	258/314/472	214	283	27	6	20%	8%	118	+2.7	247/302/437	190	287	22	3	22%	7%	106	+1.8	239/295/415	176	282	19	1	22%	7%	99	+0.8
✕Luis Valbuena 2018 · MLB	32	41→51	59→60	38→50	54	226/313/435	209	256	28	3	24%	11%	110	+2.1	220/284/386	166	289	21	7	30%	8%	88	+0.4	196/244/328	132	273	18	6	35%	6%	60	-0.8
✕Rick Ankiel 2010 · MLB	31	45→48	57→65	44→50	44	240/293/436	196	276	25	6	24%	6%	103	+1.5	233/290/389	156	298	17	9	27%	7%	91	+0.6	227/284/376	148	298	16	9	28%	7%	86	+0.1
●Jorge Soler 2024 · MLB	32	43→52	64→70	41→45	53	243/328/484	240	274	33	2	25%	10%	127	+3.3	234/321/435	201	289	25	2	27%	10%	113	+2.3	221/313/403	182	282	21	0	28%	10%	103	+1.1
✕Marcus Thames 2009 · MLB	32	42→46	69→70	37→40	44	247/300/510	263	270	39	4	26%	7%	123	+3.0	247/308/444	197	293	28	3	25%	8%	110	+2.1	252/319/431	178	303	26	0	25%	8%	111	+1.1
✕Jay Bruce 2020 · MLB	33	41→51	62→65	42→50	48	232/294/461	229	251	31	4	23%	8%	109	+2.0	223/285/434	211	255	27	6	25%	8%	99	+1.3	192/239/448	256	194	33	0	23%	6%	87	+0.1
✕Hunter Renfroe 2024 · MLB	32	45→47	57→65	41→45	48	243/304/444	201	276	26	2	23%	8%	109	+2.0	232/297/392	160	268	19	4	21%	8%	94	+0.9	222/289/371	149	251	18	1	20%	8%	87	+0.2
✕Pedro Álvarez 2018 · MLB	31	41→48	57→65	48→45	43	227/278/421	194	268	27	3	27%	7%	94	+0.9	227/281/400	173	281	24	5	28%	7%	91	+0.6	216/276/386	170	258	27	0	28%	7%	84	+0.1
✕Seth Brown 2024 · MLB	32	42→48	60→65	50	47	231/295/445	214	270	28	9	27%	8%	106	+1.8	237/294/413	176	297	24	7	28%	7%	98	+1.2	229/286/392	163	292	24	6	29%	7%	88	+0.2
●Eduardo Escobar 2020 · MLB	31	48→57	60	47→50	48	258/311/477	219	277	28	5	19%	7%	119	+2.7	247/301/444	197	277	24	3	20%	7%	107	+1.9	243/298/428	184	286	22	1	23%	7%	103	+1.2
●Robinson Chirinos 2017 · MLB	33	43→46	56→60	40→50	49	229/308/427	198	263	24	3	23%	8%	107	+1.8	236/339/446	210	295	26	4	28%	10%	122	+3.0	229/342/435	206	294	26	2	29%	11%	120	+1.8
✕Derek Dietrich 2021 · MLB	32	43→53	59→55	45→40	47	231/332/442	210	269	27	5	25%	8%	120	+2.8	188/291/335	147	265	17	4	34%	7%	81	-0.1	151/259/274	123	226	14	0	37%	7%	53	-0.9
●Jorge Cantu 2015 · AAA	33	41→51	61→55	49→40	46	234/293/450	215	251	31	7	22%	7%	107	+1.8	241/296/386	145	277	17	6	19%	6%	92	+0.7	233/290/363	130	274	14	4	20%	6%	85	+0.2
✕Didi Gregorius 2021 · MLB	31	48→55	56→60	46→50	49	252/303/442	190	255	24	8	14%	6%	107	+1.9	221/279/364	143	240	15	6	15%	6%	80	-0.1	202/263/328	127	222	12	4	15%	6%	67	-0.5
✕Alex Dickerson 2022 · MLB	32	49→56	58→60	49→45	48	257/324/462	206	292	26	4	22%	8%	120	+2.8	217/275/369	152	264	18	5	25%	7%	80	-0.1	183/235/311	127	226	14	1	25%	6%	49	-1.6
✕Eric Karros 2001 · MLB	33	46→55	58→55	42→40	53	248/320/450	202	263	27	5	19%	9%	116	+2.5	254/315/413	159	281	19	5	17%	8%	105	+1.7	260/318/403	143	286	17	3	16%	7%	104	+1.3
✕Jarrod Saltalamacchia 2017 · MLB	32	39→49	54→60	44→40	51	206/299/381	175	281	22	2	34%	12%	93	+0.8	174/252/292	118	277	14	4	39%	9%	55	-2.0	119/193/189	70	205	8	1	43%	8%	8	-1.8
✕Mark Trumbo 2018 · MLB	32	45→53	58→65	48→45	46	243/298/438	194	282	27	2	25%	7%	105	+1.7	240/296/420	180	287	24	4	25%	7%	100	+1.3	253/307/429	176	299	26	0	24%	7%	107	+1.1
✕DJ Stewart 2024 · MLB	30	40→49	58→60	45→50	50	220/314/418	198	262	27	4	28%	10%	107	+1.8	196/297/342	146	262	18	8	31%	11%	84	+0.1	155/276/261	106	216	14	8	32%	12%	58	-0.7
✕Justin Upton 2021 · MLB	33	43→53	59→65	41→55	49	234/320/437	203	283	28	5	28%	10%	114	+2.3	215/299/394	179	279	24	7	31%	10%	96	+1.0	193/283/365	172	249	24	5	32%	10%	84	+0.1

Anthony Santander

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps