Hunter Renfroe

RF Kansas City Royals

Age 35 R/R 6'1" / 230 lbs MLB HR -15%K -8% Svc 11.000 · Ctrl thru 2027

Overview

MLBExt / FA-dealFA 2028

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR
2023	31	MLBCIN	548	.233/.299/.416	20	0	96	-0.2
2024	32	MLBKC	424	.229/.298/.392	15	1	99	-0.1
2025	33	MLBKC	108	.182/.243/.242	0	0	38	-1.0
2026	34	No MLB games played
2027PROJ	35	MLBKC	154	.228/.297/.385	5	2	95	0.1
2028PROJ	36	MLBKC	112	.216/.284/.358	3	0	84	-0.7

Last 3 seasons WAR -1.3 · Next 2 projected WAR -0.7Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2027Service11.000First FA2028

2027Ext / FA-deal$1M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2023-2025

Bat Spd80

Avg EV40

Speed40

Barrel%36

xwOBA32

CompsFernando Tatis (age 34) · Omar Ramirez (age 35) · Juan Diaz (age 34)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†vL 9895vR 86

AVG/OBP/SLG.228 / .297 / .385

PA154

HR5

K%21

BB%8

BABIP261

ISO173

MLB%100%

Value2027 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · Splits · Contract

ToolsStatcast %ile · 2023-2025

CONTACT

xAVG

100.217

POWER

Barrel%

366.3

Avg EV

4088.4

Bat Spd

8074.5

SPEED

Sprint

4027.0

Platoon Splits2024-2025 · 532 PA

vs LHP

vs RHP

Edge

168

364

—

wRC+

◀◀L

wOBA

303

281

◀L

ISO

157

136

◀L

BABIP

251

248

—

17.3%

20.9%

◀◀L

BB%

8.9%

8.0%

◀L

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status FA

MLB Debut 2016

Service 11.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2027

First FA Year 2028

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Ext / FA-deal	$1M	+0.1	$0.4M	-$0.6M
Totals		$1M		$0.4M	-$0.6M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2013	21	A	Fort Wayne TinCaps	—	72	66	14	5	0	2	4	23	1	0	0	212	268	379	646	167	293	32	6	284	14	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	22	AA	San Antonio Missions	—	251	224	52	12	0	5	25	53	0	2	1	232	309	353	662	121	280	21	10	299	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	22	A+	Lake Elsinore Storm	—	316	278	82	21	3	16	28	81	7	9	3	295	374	565	939	270	359	26	9	404	114	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	22	INTL	Surprise Saguaros	—	113	102	29	9	1	6	8	23	2	0	0	284	348	569	917	284	311	20	7	394	152	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	23	AAA	El Paso Chihuahuas	—	95	90	30	5	2	6	4	20	0	1	0	333	362	633	995	300	369	21	4	424	116	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	23	AA	San Antonio Missions	—	463	421	109	22	3	14	33	112	3	4	1	259	317	425	742	166	316	24	7	326	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	24	MLB	San Diego Padres	—	36	35	13	3	0	4	1	5	0	0	0	371	389	800	1.189	429	346	14	3	508	219	+5	+0	-0	-6	+1	-0.1
2016	24	AAA	El Paso Chihuahuas	—	563	533	163	34	5	30	22	115	4	5	2	306	338	557	895	251	339	20	4	386	81	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	25	MLB	San Diego Padres	—	479	445	103	25	1	26	27	140	6	3	0	231	285	467	752	236	275	29	6	328	109	+5	+1	-3	-6	+10	0.7
2017	25	AAA	El Paso Chihuahuas	—	61	55	28	7	1	4	6	7	0	1	0	509	557	891	1.448	382	545	11	10	616	224	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	26	MLB	San Diego Padres	—	441	403	100	23	1	26	30	109	3	2	1	248	305	504	809	256	271	25	7	348	121	+11	+0	-3	-5	+10	1.3
2018	26	AAA	El Paso Chihuahuas	—	43	41	9	1	0	2	2	10	0	0	0	220	256	390	646	171	241	23	5	285	26	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	27	MLB	San Diego Padres	—	494	440	95	19	1	33	46	154	2	5	0	216	293	489	782	273	239	31	9	337	113	+8	+1	+4	-5	+11	1.8
2020	28	MLB	Tampa Bay Rays	—	139	122	19	5	0	8	14	37	2	2	0	156	254	393	647	238	141	27	10	286	82	-3	+0	-1	-1	+3	-0.2
2021	29	MLB	Boston Red Sox	—	572	521	135	33	0	31	44	130	1	1	2	259	318	501	819	242	284	23	8	354	121	+14	-1	-1	-6	+12	2.0
2022	30	MLB	Milwaukee Brewers	—	522	474	121	23	1	29	39	121	4	1	1	255	317	492	809	236	281	23	7	351	122	+14	-0	-5	-6	+11	1.5
2023	31	MLB	Cincinnati Reds	—	548	498	116	31	0	20	44	125	3	0	0	233	299	416	715	183	270	23	8	316	96	-3	+0	-5	-6	+12	-0.2
2024	32	MLB	Kansas City Royals	—	424	385	88	18	0	15	36	84	2	1	1	229	298	392	690	164	254	20	8	308	99	-0	-0	-5	-5	+9	-0.1
2025	33	MLB	Kansas City Royals	—	108	99	18	6	0	0	8	21	0	0	0	182	243	242	485	61	228	19	7	224	38	-8	+0	-3	-1	+2	-1.0
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	3763	3422	808	186	4	192	289	926	23	15	5	236	300	461	761	225	264	25	8	332	111	+48	+1	-23	-47	+82	6.1
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2013	21	A MLE	Fort Wayne TinCaps	—	72	68	10	3	0	2	2	32	1	0	0	147	183	279	463	132	227	44	3	189	14	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	22	AA MLE	San Antonio Missions	—	251	232	48	10	0	4	17	69	0	2	1	207	261	302	563	95	267	27	7	249	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	22	A+ MLE	Lake Elsinore Storm	—	316	287	69	16	2	16	19	107	7	9	3	240	304	477	781	237	315	34	6	336	114	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	23	AAA MLE	El Paso Chihuahuas	—	95	91	24	4	1	5	3	26	0	1	0	264	287	495	782	231	320	27	3	339	116	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	23	AA MLE	San Antonio Missions	—	463	431	92	17	2	12	23	142	3	4	1	213	258	346	604	132	280	31	5	267	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	24	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	—	36	36	13	3	0	4	0	5	0	0	0	361	361	778	1.139	417	346	14	0	492	219	+5	+0	-0	-6	+1	-0.1
2016	24	AAA MLE	El Paso Chihuahuas	—	563	541	129	27	4	20	14	156	4	5	2	238	263	414	677	176	291	28	2	288	81	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	25	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	—	479	446	104	27	1	25	26	140	6	3	0	233	285	466	751	233	275	29	5	329	109	+5	+1	-3	-6	+10	0.7
2017	25	AAA MLE	El Paso Chihuahuas	—	61	57	24	6	1	3	4	9	0	1	0	421	459	719	1.178	298	468	15	7	499	224	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	26	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	—	441	405	101	25	1	25	28	109	3	2	1	249	303	501	804	252	271	25	6	348	121	+11	+0	-3	-5	+10	1.3
2018	26	AAA MLE	El Paso Chihuahuas	—	43	42	7	1	0	1	1	13	0	0	0	167	186	262	448	95	206	30	2	206	26	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	27	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	—	494	441	95	20	1	32	45	154	2	5	0	215	291	483	774	268	239	31	9	336	113	+8	+1	+4	-5	+11	1.8
2020	28	MLB MLE	Tampa Bay Rays	—	139	122	19	5	0	8	14	37	2	2	0	156	254	393	647	238	141	27	10	289	82	-3	+0	-1	-1	+3	-0.2
2021	29	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	—	572	521	131	29	0	32	44	130	1	1	2	251	311	491	802	240	284	23	8	347	121	+14	-1	-1	-6	+12	2.0
2022	30	MLB MLE	Milwaukee Brewers	—	522	475	122	25	1	28	38	121	4	1	1	257	317	491	808	234	281	23	7	349	122	+14	-0	-5	-6	+11	1.5
2023	31	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	—	548	498	116	32	0	19	44	125	3	0	0	233	299	412	711	179	270	23	8	309	96	-3	+0	-5	-6	+12	-0.2
2024	32	MLB MLE	Kansas City Royals	—	424	385	89	18	0	16	36	84	2	1	1	231	300	403	703	171	254	20	8	315	99	-0	-0	-5	-5	+9	-0.1
2025	33	MLB MLE	Kansas City Royals	—	108	99	18	6	0	0	8	21	0	0	0	182	243	242	485	61	228	19	7	224	38	-8	+0	-3	-1	+2	-1.0
2013	21	A MLE	Fort Wayne TinCaps	—	72	68	10	3	0	2	2	32	1	0	0	147	183	279	463	132	235	44	3	189	14	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	21	A RAW	Fort Wayne TinCaps	—	72	66	14	5	0	2	4	23	1	0	0	212	268	379	646	167	293	32	6	284	14	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	22	A+ MLE	3 teams	—	680	622	141	31	3	24	43	211	9	11	4	227	286	402	688	175	298	31	6	297	87	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	22	A+ RAW	3 teams	—	680	604	163	42	4	27	61	157	9	11	4	270	346	487	832	217	319	23	9	364	87	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	23	AA MLE	2 teams	—	558	522	118	21	4	17	26	168	3	5	1	226	267	379	646	153	294	30	5	279	75	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	23	AA RAW	2 teams	—	558	511	139	27	5	20	37	132	3	5	1	272	325	462	787	190	325	24	7	342	75	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	24	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	599	577	142	30	4	24	14	161	4	5	2	246	269	437	706	191	298	27	2	300	89	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	24	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	599	568	176	37	5	34	23	120	4	5	2	310	341	572	913	262	340	20	4	394	89	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	25	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	540	503	129	33	2	28	30	149	6	4	0	256	306	497	803	241	309	28	6	349	122	+14	+1	-3	-6	+12	1.8
2017	25	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	540	500	131	32	2	30	33	147	6	4	0	262	315	514	829	252	312	27	6	361	122	+14	+1	-3	-6	+12	1.8
2018	26	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	484	447	108	25	1	27	29	122	3	2	1	242	292	483	775	242	267	25	6	335	113	+7	+0	-3	-5	+10	1.0
2018	26	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	484	444	109	24	1	28	32	119	3	2	1	245	301	493	794	248	268	25	7	343	113	+7	+0	-3	-5	+10	1.0
2019	27	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	—	494	441	95	20	1	32	45	154	2	5	0	215	291	483	774	268	241	31	9	336	113	+8	+1	+4	-5	+11	1.8
2019	27	MLB RAW	San Diego Padres	—	494	440	95	19	1	33	46	154	2	5	0	216	293	489	782	273	239	31	9	337	113	+8	+1	+4	-5	+11	1.8
2020	28	MLB MLE	Tampa Bay Rays	—	139	122	19	5	0	8	14	37	2	2	0	156	254	393	647	238	141	27	10	289	82	-3	+0	-1	-1	+3	-0.2
2020	28	MLB RAW	Tampa Bay Rays	—	139	122	19	5	0	8	14	37	2	2	0	156	254	393	647	238	141	27	10	286	82	-3	+0	-1	-1	+3	-0.2
2021	29	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	—	572	521	131	29	0	32	44	130	1	1	2	251	311	491	802	240	271	23	8	347	121	+14	-1	-1	-6	+12	2.0
2021	29	MLB RAW	Boston Red Sox	—	572	521	135	33	0	31	44	130	1	1	2	259	318	501	819	242	284	23	8	354	121	+14	-1	-1	-6	+12	2.0
2022	30	MLB MLE	Milwaukee Brewers	—	522	475	122	25	1	28	38	121	4	1	1	257	317	491	808	234	286	23	7	349	122	+14	-0	-5	-6	+11	1.5
2022	30	MLB RAW	Milwaukee Brewers	—	522	474	121	23	1	29	39	121	4	1	1	255	317	492	809	236	281	23	7	351	122	+14	-0	-5	-6	+11	1.5
2023	31	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	—	548	498	116	32	0	19	44	125	3	0	0	233	299	412	711	179	272	23	8	309	96	-3	+0	-5	-6	+12	-0.2
2023	31	MLB RAW	Cincinnati Reds	—	548	498	116	31	0	20	44	125	3	0	0	233	299	416	715	183	270	23	8	316	96	-3	+0	-5	-6	+12	-0.2
2024	32	MLB MLE	Kansas City Royals	—	424	385	89	18	0	16	36	84	2	1	1	231	300	403	703	171	255	20	8	315	99	-0	-0	-5	-5	+9	-0.1
2024	32	MLB RAW	Kansas City Royals	—	424	385	88	18	0	15	36	84	2	1	1	229	298	392	690	164	254	20	8	308	99	-0	-0	-5	-5	+9	-0.1
2025	33	MLB MLE	Kansas City Royals	—	108	99	18	6	0	0	8	21	0	0	0	182	243	242	485	61	228	19	7	224	38	-8	+0	-3	-1	+2	-1.0
2025	33	MLB RAW	Kansas City Royals	—	108	99	18	6	0	0	8	21	0	0	0	182	243	242	485	61	228	19	7	224	38	-8	+0	-3	-1	+2	-1.0
2013	21	A MLE	Fort Wayne TinCaps	—	72	69	10	3	0	2	2	32	1	0	0	145	183	275	458	130	227	44	3	189	14	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	22	A+ MLE	3 teams	—	680	623	141	31	3	24	43	211	9	11	4	226	286	401	688	175	294	31	6	297	87	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	23	AA MLE	2 teams	—	558	524	118	21	4	17	26	168	3	5	1	225	267	378	645	153	287	30	5	279	75	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	24	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	599	576	142	30	4	24	14	161	4	5	2	247	269	438	706	191	294	27	2	300	89	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	25	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	540	499	129	33	2	28	30	149	6	4	0	259	306	501	807	242	297	28	6	349	122	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	26	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	484	449	108	25	1	27	29	122	3	2	1	241	292	481	773	241	265	25	6	335	113	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	27	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	—	494	444	95	20	1	32	45	154	2	5	0	214	291	480	771	266	239	31	9	336	113	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	28	MLB MLE	Tampa Bay Rays	—	139	122	19	5	0	8	14	37	2	2	0	156	254	393	647	238	141	27	10	289	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	29	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	—	572	522	131	29	0	32	44	130	1	1	2	251	311	490	801	239	284	23	8	347	121	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	30	MLB MLE	Milwaukee Brewers	—	522	475	122	25	1	28	38	121	4	1	1	257	317	491	808	234	281	23	7	349	122	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	31	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	—	548	496	116	32	0	19	44	125	3	0	0	234	299	413	712	179	270	23	8	309	96	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	32	MLB MLE	Kansas City Royals	—	424	383	89	18	0	16	36	84	2	1	1	232	300	405	705	172	254	20	8	315	99	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	33	MLB MLE	Kansas City Royals	—	108	99	18	6	0	0	8	21	0	0	0	182	243	242	485	61	228	19	7	224	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	32	MLB MLE	Kansas City Royals	—	424	383	89	18	0	16	36	84	2	1	1	232	300	405	705	172	254	20	8	315	99	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	33	MLB MLE	Kansas City Royals	—	108	99	18	6	0	0	8	21	0	0	0	182	243	242	485	61	228	19	7	224	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	35	MLB MLE	KC	100%	248	224	52	11	1	8	21	52	1	3	1	232	301	396	697	164	263	21	8	309	95	-1	+0	-0	-3	+5	0.1
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	35	MLB CTX	KC	100%	154	139	33	7	1	5	13	32	1	2	1	228	297	385	682	157	261	21	8	303	95	-1	+0	-0	-2	+3	0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	36	MLB MLE	KC	100%	112	101	21	4	0	3	9	24	1	0	0	219	287	369	656	150	252	21	8	292	84	-2	+0	-6	-1	+2	-0.7
2028	36	MLB CTX	KC	100%	112	101	21	4	0	3	9	24	1	0	0	216	284	358	642	142	250	21	8	287	84	-2	+0	-6	-1	+2	-0.7
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	3875	3523	829	190	4	195	298	950	24	15	5	235	299	458	757	222	264	25	8	331	100	+46	+1	-30	-49	+84	5.4
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	591	140	32	1	33	50	159	4	3	1	237	301	462	763	225	265	24	8	331	100	+8	+0	-5	-8	+14	0.9
Career	—	MLE		—	6006	5520	1292	289	17	265	395	1571	42	39	13	234	290	437	727	203	275	26	7	316	100	+45	+1	-30	-50	+87	5.5
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	597	140	31	2	29	43	170	5	4	1	235	291	439	730	204	275	26	7	316	100	+7	+0	-5	-8	+14	0.9

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2018 AAAEl Paso Chihuahuas · 43 PAwOBA .267 → .206 (−61)K% 23.3% → 30.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	23.26%	÷0.983	×1.290	—	—	30.52%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	2.33%	÷0.986	×0.710	—	×1.018	1.70%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.980	—	×1.018	0.00%
Singles /BIP	19.35%	÷1.032	×0.900	—	×1.018	17.19%
Doubles /BIP	3.23%	÷1.098	×0.810	—	×1.018	2.42%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.150	×0.810	—	×1.018	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	6.45%	÷1.045	×0.780	—	×1.018	4.90%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 109, 1B 106, 2B 120, 3B 130, K 97, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .267 → .206; ISO .171 → .122; BABIP .241 → .206. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 AAAEl Paso Chihuahuas · 61 PAwOBA .597 → .499 (−98)K% 11.5% → 14.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	11.48%	÷1.005	×1.290	—	—	14.73%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	8.20%	÷0.921	×0.710	—	×1.033	6.53%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.980	—	×1.033	0.00%
Singles /BIP	33.33%	÷1.040	×0.900	—	×1.033	29.80%
Doubles /BIP	14.58%	÷0.983	×0.810	—	×1.033	12.41%
Triples /BIP	2.08%	÷1.049	×0.810	—	×1.033	1.66%
Home runs /BIP	8.33%	÷1.087	×0.780	—	×1.033	6.18%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 117, 1B 108, 2B 97, 3B 110, K 101, BB 84 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .597 → .499; ISO .382 → .299; BABIP .545 → .468. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2016 AAAEl Paso Chihuahuas · 563 PAwOBA .376 → .288 (−88)K% 20.4% → 27.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	20.43%	÷0.951	×1.290	—	—	27.71%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	3.37%	÷1.004	×0.710	—	×1.048	2.50%
HBP% /PA	0.71%	—	×0.980	—	×1.048	0.73%
Singles /BIP	22.49%	÷1.026	×0.900	×0.974	×1.048	20.14%
Doubles /BIP	8.13%	÷0.987	×0.810	×0.974	×1.048	6.82%
Triples /BIP	1.20%	÷1.028	×0.810	×0.974	×1.048	0.96%
Home runs /BIP	7.18%	÷1.160	×0.780	—	×1.048	5.06%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 132, 1B 105, 2B 97, 3B 106, K 90, BB 101 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 27.2 → +4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.974.

Result: wOBA .376 → .288; ISO .251 → .174; BABIP .339 → .291. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2015 AASan Antonio Missions · 463 PAwOBA .320 → .267 (−53)K% 24.2% → 30.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	24.19%	÷0.963	×1.220	—	—	30.66%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	6.91%	÷1.010	×0.700	—	×1.027	4.92%
HBP% /PA	0.65%	—	×0.870	—	×1.027	0.58%
Singles /BIP	22.65%	÷0.984	×0.920	×0.950	×1.027	20.68%
Doubles /BIP	7.12%	÷0.989	×0.840	×0.950	×1.027	5.90%
Triples /BIP	0.97%	÷1.124	×0.940	×0.950	×1.027	0.79%
Home runs /BIP	4.53%	÷0.885	×0.800	—	×1.027	4.20%

Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 77, 1B 97, 2B 98, 3B 125, K 93, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .320 → .267; ISO .166 → .141; BABIP .316 → .280. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2015 AAAEl Paso Chihuahuas · 95 PAwOBA .416 → .339 (−77)K% 21.1% → 27.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	21.05%	÷0.980	×1.290	—	—	27.72%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	4.21%	÷0.972	×0.710	—	×1.050	3.23%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.980	—	×1.050	0.00%
Singles /BIP	24.29%	÷1.017	×0.900	×0.972	×1.050	21.94%
Doubles /BIP	7.14%	÷0.970	×0.810	×0.972	×1.050	6.09%
Triples /BIP	2.86%	÷1.150	×0.810	×0.972	×1.050	2.05%
Home runs /BIP	8.57%	÷0.919	×0.780	—	×1.050	7.64%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 84, 1B 103, 2B 94, 3B 130, K 96, BB 94 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.972.

Result: wOBA .416 → .339; ISO .300 → .241; BABIP .369 → .320. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2014 A+Lake Elsinore Storm · 316 PAwOBA .394 → .336 (−58)K% 25.6% → 33.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	25.63%	÷1.013	×1.340	—	—	33.90%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	7.91%	÷0.955	×0.710	—	×1.012	5.95%
HBP% /PA	2.22%	—	×0.790	—	×1.012	1.77%
Singles /BIP	21.32%	÷0.982	×0.910	×0.961	×1.012	19.23%
Doubles /BIP	10.66%	÷0.963	×0.820	×0.961	×1.012	8.83%
Triples /BIP	1.52%	÷0.900	×0.760	×0.961	×1.012	1.25%
Home runs /BIP	8.12%	÷0.875	×0.920	—	×1.012	8.64%

Factors used: league row CAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 75, 1B 96, 2B 93, 3B 80, K 103, BB 91 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.961.

Result: wOBA .394 → .336; ISO .270 → .247; BABIP .359 → .315. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2014 AASan Antonio Missions · 251 PAwOBA .293 → .249 (−44)K% 21.1% → 27.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	21.12%	÷0.942	×1.220	—	—	27.36%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	9.96%	÷1.083	×0.700	—	×1.042	6.71%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.870	—	×1.042	0.00%
Singles /BIP	20.47%	÷0.948	×0.920	×0.985	×1.042	20.39%
Doubles /BIP	7.02%	÷1.020	×0.840	×0.985	×1.042	5.93%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.065	×0.940	×0.985	×1.042	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	2.92%	÷0.960	×0.800	—	×1.042	2.54%

Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 92, 1B 90, 2B 104, 3B 113, K 88, BB 117 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 24.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.985.

Result: wOBA .293 → .249; ISO .121 → .100; BABIP .280 → .267. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2013 AFort Wayne TinCaps · 72 PAwOBA .270 → .189 (−81)K% 31.9% → 44.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	31.94%	÷0.986	×1.360	—	—	44.07%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	4.17%	÷0.951	×0.690	—	×1.015	3.07%
HBP% /PA	1.39%	—	×0.780	—	×1.015	1.10%
Singles /BIP	16.28%	÷1.026	×0.920	×0.950	×1.015	14.07%
Doubles /BIP	11.63%	÷1.204	×0.830	×0.950	×1.015	7.73%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.956	×0.910	×0.950	×1.015	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	4.65%	÷0.907	×0.800	—	×1.015	4.16%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 81, 1B 105, 2B 141, 3B 91, K 97, BB 90 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .270 → .189; ISO .167 → .114; BABIP .293 → .227. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 11 projected seasons	6.0	3,993	196	17	235	296	455	-43	-35	10.6	10.9
/162	664	33	3	-7.1	-5.9	1.8	pk7: 11
#1Pete Incaviglia'86-'98 * career totals — 11 seasons, 4,677 PA	7.0	4,677	206	33	242*	307*	466*	-56	-19	9.9	10.5
/162	664	29	5	-8.0	-2.7	1.4	pk7: 11
#2Henry Rodriguez'92-'02 * career totals — 9 seasons, 3,343 PA	5.0	3,343	160	10	247*	307*	472*	-39	-10	9.3	10.2
/162	664	32	2	-7.7	-2.0	1.8	pk7: 11
#3Kole Calhounlast yr '23 career totals — 11 seasons, 4,963 PA	7.5	4,963	179	33	242	316	418	-54	-33	8.3	9.6
/162	664	24	4	-7.3	-4.4	1.1	pk7: 11
#4Anthony Santanderlast yr '25 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,305 PA	5.0	3,305	161	10	241	305	459	-35	-36	6.7	7.2
/162	664	32	2	-7.1	-7.3	1.4	pk7: 8
#5Cory Snyder'86-'94 * career totals — 9 seasons, 3,933 PA	5.9	3,933	149	28	243*	290*	445*	-35	-18	4.7	5.7
/162	664	25	5	-5.9	-3.0	0.8	pk7: 7
#6Franmil Reyeslast yr '23 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,078 PA	3.1	2,078	108	6	249	310	464	-22	-18	5.5	5.5
/162	664	35	2	-7.1	-5.7	1.8	pk7: 6

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Hunter Renfroe (OGILVIE)	35	—	—	—	—	230/298/393	163	263	5	2	21%	8%	95	+0.3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Fernando Tatis 2009 · MLB	34	47→52	52→55	47→45	48	241/305/410	169	278	20	7	21%	8%	101	+1.4	250/310/410	160	287	17	7	19%	7%	103	+1.5	273/327/425	151	304	13	6	14%	5%	113	+1.4
✕Omar Ramirez 2006 · AAA	35	47	49→50	51→50	50	239/296/387	148	259	17	11	16%	7%	92	+0.7	244/302/370	126	272	13	11	15%	7%	91	+0.6	255/315/359	104	282	9	10	13%	7%	90	+0.2
✕Juan Diaz 2008 · AAA	34	45	52→60	48→30	42	235/286/401	166	286	20	8	26%	6%	92	+0.7	232/284/373	141	290	16	8	25%	6%	84	+0.2	226/271/366	141	267	19	0	23%	5%	74	-0.1
✕George Arias 2006 · AAA	34	45→44	54→55	49→40	49	236/288/409	173	247	22	6	16%	7%	95	+0.9	227/284/393	166	238	21	6	15%	7%	89	+0.5	207/266/373	166	203	23	1	13%	6%	78	-0.2
✕Luis Alfonso Garcia 2014 · AAA	35	47→54	53→55	46→40	50	246/313/415	169	282	22	4	22%	9%	105	+1.7	230/292/377	147	263	20	3	21%	8%	88	+0.5	221/286/354	132	253	18	1	20%	8%	80	-0.1
✕Hiram Bocachica 2011 · AAA	35	46	48→55	48→55	47	234/300/376	143	273	16	12	21%	7%	91	+0.7	215/292/369	154	259	17	18	23%	8%	87	+0.4	180/270/341	161	209	18	24	23%	9%	72	-0.4
✕Kevin Pillar 2024 · MLB	35	44→54	56→55	49→55	42	237/280/424	186	265	24	10	22%	5%	95	+1.0	232/286/380	148	276	16	18	22%	5%	87	+0.4	228/292/374	147	273	15	23	22%	5%	89	+0.3
✕Jake Fox 2016 · AAA	34	43→53	52→60	47→45	43	229/284/394	165	261	21	4	22%	5%	90	+0.6	212/262/354	142	267	16	4	27%	6%	72	-0.7	193/239/329	136	240	16	0	27%	5%	55	-1.5
✕Adam Rosales 2018 · MLB	35	44→50	51→55	45	40	225/281/387	162	304	19	7	32%	6%	86	+0.3	198/248/332	134	258	16	5	29%	5%	61	-1.5	175/223/296	120	224	15	3	29%	5%	42	-1.8
✕Cody Ransom 2011 · MLB	35	40→39	51→55	48→50	43	212/270/375	162	264	19	8	28%	7%	80	-0.2	216/286/399	183	290	23	8	32%	8%	92	+0.7	206/286/402	196	277	25	6	34%	9%	92	+0.4
✕Jesse Gutierrez 2013 · AAA	35	49→55	54→55	46→30	48	255/310/431	176	268	22	3	15%	6%	108	+1.9	233/287/348	115	284	12	5	22%	6%	80	-0.2	230/281/315	85	295	8	0	24%	5%	68	-0.5
✕Chris Richard 2009 · AAA	35	44→52	53→55	49→50	43	229/293/405	176	283	21	8	27%	7%	96	+1.0	223/287/395	172	269	21	4	25%	7%	91	+0.7	212/280/383	171	248	21	1	24%	8%	83	+0.1
✕Adonis García 2019 · MLB	34	51→54	48→50	49→50	44	254/296/393	138	277	16	9	16%	4%	93	+0.8	214/271/329	115	258	13	14	22%	6%	70	-0.9	181/235/262	81	221	9	16	22%	4%	39	-1.3
✕Brett Harper 2016 · AAA	35	46→51	54→60	46→30	44	242/303/406	164	299	24	6	28%	7%	99	+1.3	233/288/380	147	293	20	5	27%	6%	88	+0.4	223/276/357	134	277	19	0	26%	6%	77	-0.2
✕Mario Valenzuela 2011 · AAA	34	50→57	51→55	50→40	45	254/301/413	159	287	19	7	19%	6%	100	+1.3	261/311/421	160	306	20	5	21%	6%	105	+1.7	264/313/414	149	314	20	2	22%	6%	103	+0.8
●John Lindsey 2012 · AAA	35	44→51	50→60	44→30	39	227/287/382	155	287	17	3	27%	5%	88	+0.5	231/300/429	198	285	26	2	28%	6%	105	+1.7	221/296/425	204	267	29	0	29%	6%	100	+1.0
✕So Taguchi 2004 · MLB	35	49→58	54→45	52→50	50	253/310/434	181	277	22	10	18%	7%	108	+1.9	264/311/390	126	294	11	15	14%	6%	98	+1.2	275/328/371	96	309	7	15	13%	6%	100	+0.8
✕Andy Tracy 2010 · AAA	36	41→45	53→55	48→45	48	218/287/387	169	254	22	6	24%	8%	89	+0.5	222/293/398	176	276	22	6	27%	9%	94	+0.9	216/291/396	180	268	22	4	28%	9%	91	+0.5
✕Ty Wigginton 2012 · MLB	34	47→55	50→60	47→50	49	241/302/393	152	266	18	6	18%	7%	96	+1.0	228/300/365	137	274	16	6	22%	9%	89	+0.5	227/306/357	130	272	17	2	22%	10%	90	+0.4
✕Yadiel Hernandez 2022 · MLB	34	49→54	53→55	46→45	46	254/308/422	168	300	23	7	24%	7%	105	+1.7	249/297/389	140	311	16	7	24%	6%	93	+0.8	266/311/405	139	325	16	4	23%	6%	103	+0.8

Hunter Renfroe

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps