Carlos Correa

SS Houston Astros

Age 32 R/R 6'3" / 220 lbs MLB HR -6% Svc 11.692 · Ctrl thru 2028 ILInjured 60-Day (D60)

Overview

MLBIL-6040-MANExtFA 2028

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR
2024	29	MLBMIN	367	.310/.391/.517	14	0	148	3.9
2025	30	MLBHOU	584	.276/.333/.402	13	0	107	2.7
2026	31	MLBHOU	141	.279/.371/.418	3	1	120	1.0
2027PROJ	32	MLBHOU	127	.273/.342/.423	3	1	114	0.6
2028PROJ	33	MLBHOU	426	.265/.334/.405	11	2	107	1.3
2029PROJ	34	MLBHOU	328	.255/.323/.384	8	1	98	0.5

Last 3 seasons WAR 7.7 · Next 3 projected WAR 2.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2028Service11.692First FA2028Options5NTC

2027Ext$33M2028Ext$33M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2024-2026

xwOBA84

Bat Spd72

Avg EV67

Barrel%49

Speed43

CompsWilson Ramos (age 32) · Dioner Navarro (age 32) · Welington Castillo (age 32)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†vL 117114vR 103

AVG/OBP/SLG.273 / .342 / .423

PA127

HR3

K%19

BB%9

BABIP316

ISO132

MLB%100%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control-$51M ctrl surplus

Tools · Splits · Contract

ToolsStatcast %ile · 2024-2026

CONTACT

xAVG

830.278

POWER

Barrel%

498.1

Avg EV

6790.3

Bat Spd

7273.6

SPEED

Sprint

4327.2

Platoon Splits2024-2026 · 1055 PA

vs LHP

vs RHP

Edge

260

795

—

wRC+

136

117

◀L

wOBA

369

341

◀L

ISO

198

137

◀◀L

BABIP

312

339

▶R

17.3%

18.5%

◀L

BB%

10.0%

8.3%

◀◀L

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status FA

MLB Debut 2015

Service 11.692 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2028

First FA Year 2028

NTCOPT

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Ext	$33M	+0.7	$3M	-$31M
2028	Ext	$33M	+1.3	$10M	-$20M
Totals		$67M		$12M	-$51M

Options · projected decision
2029	CLUB OPT	$32.0M / $0.0M buyout	DECLINE
2030	CLUB OPT	$25.0M / $0.0M buyout	DECLINE
2031	CLUB OPT	$20.0M / $0.0M buyout	DECLINE
2032	CLUB OPT	$15.0M / $0.0M buyout	DECLINE
2033	CLUB OPT	$10.0M / $0.0M buyout	DECLINE

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2012	17	ROK	Greeneville Astros	—	204	190	49	14	2	3	12	44	1	6	1	258	305	400	705	142	322	22	6	312	40	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	17	INTL	Gigantes de Carolina	—	52	49	10	2	0	0	2	15	0	1	1	204	235	245	480	41	294	29	4	215	32	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	18	A	Quad Cities River Bandits	—	519	450	144	33	3	9	58	83	8	10	10	320	407	467	874	147	375	16	11	389	113	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	19	A+	Lancaster JetHawks	—	293	249	81	16	6	6	36	45	5	20	4	325	421	510	931	185	373	15	12	408	124	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	20	MLB	Houston Astros	—	432	387	108	22	1	22	40	78	1	14	4	279	348	512	860	233	296	18	9	373	136	+18	+1	-2	+7	+9	3.5
2015	20	AAA	Fresno Grizzlies	—	113	98	27	6	1	3	12	14	0	3	1	276	355	449	804	173	286	12	11	348	93	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	20	AA	Corpus Christi Hooks	—	133	117	45	15	2	7	15	25	1	15	0	385	459	726	1.185	342	447	19	11	506	179	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	21	MLB	Houston Astros	—	660	577	158	36	3	20	75	139	5	13	3	274	362	451	813	177	328	21	11	361	125	+20	+1	-8	+7	+14	3.5
2017	22	MLB	Houston Astros	—	481	422	133	25	1	24	53	92	2	2	1	315	394	550	944	235	352	19	11	410	158	+33	+0	+0	+5	+10	5.0
2017	22	AAA	Fresno Grizzlies	—	16	14	4	0	0	0	1	4	0	0	0	286	333	286	619		364	25	6	270	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	23	MLB	Houston Astros	—	468	402	96	20	1	15	53	111	2	3	0	239	330	405	736	167	282	24	11	323	101	+0	+1	+17	+5	+10	3.4
2018	23	AA	Corpus Christi Hooks	—	18	16	3	1	0	1	2	5	0	0	0	188	278	438	715	250	200	28	11	315	41	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	24	MLB	Houston Astros	—	321	280	78	16	1	21	35	75	2	1	0	279	363	568	931	289	303	23	11	399	156	+21	+0	+10	+4	+7	4.3
2019	24	AAA	Round Rock Express	—	24	21	7	3	0	0	3	5	0	0	0	333	417	476	893	143	438	21	12	399	107	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	25	MLB	Houston Astros	—	221	201	53	9	0	5	16	49	3	0	0	264	327	383	710	119	324	22	7	320	97	-1	+0	+5	+2	+5	1.1
2021	26	MLB	Houston Astros	—	640	555	155	34	1	26	75	116	4	0	0	279	369	485	854	205	308	18	12	375	137	+28	+0	+13	+7	+14	6.3
2022	27	MLB	Minnesota Twins	—	590	522	152	24	1	22	61	121	3	0	1	291	369	467	836	176	339	21	10	369	134	+24	-0	+1	+6	+13	4.4
2023	28	MLB	Minnesota Twins	—	580	514	118	29	2	18	59	131	4	0	0	230	314	399	713	169	272	23	10	318	99	-1	+0	+2	+6	+13	2.1
2024	29	MLB	Minnesota Twins	—	367	319	99	20	2	14	40	61	3	0	0	310	391	517	908	207	343	17	11	396	148	+21	+0	+5	+4	+8	3.9
2025	30	MLB	Houston Astros	—	584	537	148	29	0	13	45	113	1	0	0	276	333	402	735	127	328	19	8	329	107	+5	+0	+2	+6	+13	2.7
2026	31	MLB	Houston Astros	—	141	122	34	8	0	3	18	26	0	1	0	279	371	418	789	139	330	18	13	354	120	+3	+0	+2	+2	+3	1.0
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	5485	4838	1332	272	13	203	570	1112	30	34	9	275	355	463	818	187	316	20	10	360	130	+196	+3	+48	+62	+119	43.7
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2012	17	ROK MLE	Greeneville Astros	—	204	195	37	10	1	2	7	62	1	6	1	190	222	282	504	92	273	30	3	228	40	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	18	A MLE	Quad Cities River Bandits	—	519	469	135	32	3	7	39	110	8	10	10	288	353	414	766	126	356	21	8	335	113	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	19	A+ MLE	Lancaster JetHawks	—	293	258	75	14	5	5	27	64	5	20	4	291	369	442	811	151	361	22	9	352	124	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	20	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	—	432	389	108	21	1	23	38	78	1	14	4	278	343	514	858	237	296	18	9	369	136	+18	+1	-2	+7	+9	3.5
2015	20	AAA MLE	Fresno Grizzlies	—	113	102	25	5	1	2	8	18	0	3	1	245	300	373	673	127	264	16	7	306	93	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	20	AA MLE	Corpus Christi Hooks	—	133	122	41	14	2	5	10	32	1	15	0	336	391	607	998	270	428	24	8	433	179	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	21	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	—	660	582	157	34	3	21	70	139	5	13	3	270	353	447	800	177	328	21	11	353	125	+20	+1	-8	+7	+14	3.5
2017	22	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	—	481	427	133	24	1	25	48	92	2	2	1	311	384	548	932	237	352	19	10	401	158	+33	+0	+0	+5	+10	5.0
2017	22	AAA MLE	Fresno Grizzlies	—	16	14	4	0	0	0	1	5	0	0	0	286	333	286	619		352	31	6	262	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	23	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	—	468	405	95	19	1	15	50	111	2	3	0	235	322	398	719	163	282	24	11	317	101	+0	+1	+17	+5	+10	3.4
2018	23	AA MLE	Corpus Christi Hooks	—	18	17	3	1	0	1	1	6	0	0	0	176	222	412	634	235	166	33	6	229	41	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	24	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	—	321	280	78	15	1	22	35	75	2	1	0	279	363	575	938	296	303	23	11	398	156	+21	+0	+10	+4	+7	4.3
2019	24	AAA MLE	Round Rock Express	—	24	22	6	2	0	0	2	6	0	0	0	273	333	364	697	91	398	25	8	326	107	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	25	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	—	221	203	53	9	0	5	14	49	3	0	0	261	318	379	697	118	324	22	6	311	97	-1	+0	+5	+2	+5	1.1
2021	26	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	—	640	557	154	32	1	27	73	116	4	0	0	276	364	483	847	206	308	18	11	370	137	+28	+0	+13	+7	+14	6.3
2022	27	MLB MLE	Minnesota Twins	—	590	524	152	24	1	22	59	121	3	0	1	290	365	466	831	176	339	21	10	367	134	+24	-0	+1	+6	+13	4.4
2023	28	MLB MLE	Minnesota Twins	—	580	517	118	29	2	18	56	131	4	0	0	228	308	397	705	168	272	23	10	314	99	-1	+0	+2	+6	+13	2.1
2024	29	MLB MLE	Minnesota Twins	—	367	324	99	20	2	14	36	61	3	0	0	306	380	509	889	204	343	17	10	387	148	+21	+0	+5	+4	+8	3.9
2025	30	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	—	584	537	145	27	0	13	45	113	1	0	0	270	328	393	721	123	328	19	8	326	107	+5	+0	+2	+6	+13	2.7
2026	31	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	—	141	123	34	8	0	3	17	26	0	1	0	276	364	415	779	138	330	18	12	345	120	+3	+0	+2	+2	+3	1.0
2012	17	ROK MLE	2 teams	—	256	244	49	13	2	3	9	78	1	7	2	201	232	307	540	107	282	30	4	228	40	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	17	ROK RAW	2 teams	—	256	239	59	16	2	3	14	59	1	7	2	247	291	368	660	121	316	23	5	293	40	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	18	A MLE	Quad Cities River Bandits	—	519	469	135	32	3	7	39	110	8	10	10	288	353	414	766	126	362	21	8	335	113	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	18	A RAW	Quad Cities River Bandits	—	519	450	144	33	3	9	58	83	8	10	10	320	407	467	874	147	375	16	11	389	113	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	19	A+ MLE	Lancaster JetHawks	—	293	258	75	14	5	5	27	64	5	20	4	291	369	442	811	151	365	22	9	352	124	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	19	A+ RAW	Lancaster JetHawks	—	293	249	81	16	6	6	36	45	5	20	4	325	421	510	931	185	373	15	12	408	124	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	20	MLB MLE	3 teams	—	678	612	174	40	4	30	57	127	2	32	5	284	347	510	857	225	312	19	8	371	137	+30	+4	-2	+7	+15	5.6
2015	20	MLB RAW	3 teams	—	678	602	180	43	4	32	67	117	2	32	5	299	371	543	914	244	322	17	10	395	137	+30	+4	-2	+7	+15	5.6
2016	21	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	—	660	582	157	34	3	21	70	139	5	13	3	270	353	447	800	177	320	21	11	353	125	+20	+1	-8	+7	+14	3.5
2016	21	MLB RAW	Houston Astros	—	660	577	158	36	3	20	75	139	5	13	3	274	362	451	813	177	328	21	11	361	125	+20	+1	-8	+7	+14	3.5
2017	22	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	497	441	136	24	1	25	49	97	2	2	1	308	380	537	917	229	343	20	10	397	155	+32	+0	+0	+5	+11	5.0
2017	22	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	497	436	137	25	1	24	54	96	2	2	1	314	392	541	934	227	352	19	11	406	155	+32	+0	+0	+5	+11	5.0
2018	23	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	486	422	98	20	1	16	51	117	2	3	0	232	318	398	716	166	273	24	10	314	98	-1	+1	+17	+5	+11	3.3
2018	23	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	486	418	99	21	1	16	55	116	2	3	0	237	328	407	735	170	279	24	11	323	98	-1	+1	+17	+5	+11	3.3
2019	24	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	345	302	85	18	1	22	37	81	2	1	0	281	364	566	930	285	310	23	11	393	152	+21	+0	+10	+4	+7	4.4
2019	24	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	345	301	85	19	1	21	38	80	2	1	0	282	367	561	928	279	314	23	11	399	152	+21	+0	+10	+4	+7	4.4
2020	25	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	—	221	203	53	9	0	5	14	49	3	0	0	261	318	379	697	118	320	22	6	311	97	-1	+0	+5	+2	+5	1.1
2020	25	MLB RAW	Houston Astros	—	221	201	53	9	0	5	16	49	3	0	0	264	327	383	710	119	324	22	7	320	97	-1	+0	+5	+2	+5	1.1
2021	26	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	—	640	557	154	32	1	27	73	116	4	0	0	276	364	483	847	206	302	18	11	370	137	+28	+0	+13	+7	+14	6.3
2021	26	MLB RAW	Houston Astros	—	640	555	155	34	1	26	75	116	4	0	0	279	369	485	854	205	308	18	12	375	137	+28	+0	+13	+7	+14	6.3
2022	27	MLB MLE	Minnesota Twins	—	590	524	152	24	1	22	59	121	3	0	1	290	365	466	831	176	338	21	10	367	134	+24	-0	+1	+6	+13	4.4
2022	27	MLB RAW	Minnesota Twins	—	590	522	152	24	1	22	61	121	3	0	1	291	369	467	836	176	339	21	10	369	134	+24	-0	+1	+6	+13	4.4
2023	28	MLB MLE	Minnesota Twins	—	580	517	118	29	2	18	56	131	4	0	0	228	308	397	705	168	270	23	10	314	99	-1	+0	+2	+6	+13	2.1
2023	28	MLB RAW	Minnesota Twins	—	580	514	118	29	2	18	59	131	4	0	0	230	314	399	713	169	272	23	10	318	99	-1	+0	+2	+6	+13	2.1
2024	29	MLB MLE	Minnesota Twins	—	367	324	99	20	2	14	36	61	3	0	0	306	380	509	889	204	336	17	10	387	148	+21	+0	+5	+4	+8	3.9
2024	29	MLB RAW	Minnesota Twins	—	367	319	99	20	2	14	40	61	3	0	0	310	391	517	908	207	343	17	11	396	148	+21	+0	+5	+4	+8	3.9
2025	30	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	—	584	537	145	27	0	13	45	113	1	0	0	270	328	393	721	123	320	19	8	326	107	+5	+0	+2	+6	+13	2.7
2025	30	MLB RAW	Houston Astros	—	584	537	148	29	0	13	45	113	1	0	0	276	333	402	735	127	328	19	8	329	107	+5	+0	+2	+6	+13	2.7
2026	31	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	—	141	123	34	8	0	3	17	26	0	1	0	276	364	415	779	138	326	18	12	345	120	+3	+0	+2	+2	+3	1.0
2026	31	MLB RAW	Houston Astros	—	141	122	34	8	0	3	18	26	0	1	0	279	371	418	789	139	330	18	13	354	120	+3	+0	+2	+2	+3	1.0
2012	17	ROK MLE	2 teams	—	256	244	49	13	2	3	9	78	1	7	2	201	232	307	540	107	273	30	4	228	40	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	18	A MLE	Quad Cities River Bandits	—	519	467	135	32	3	7	39	110	8	10	10	289	353	415	768	126	356	21	8	335	113	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	19	A+ MLE	Lancaster JetHawks	—	293	259	75	14	5	5	27	64	5	20	4	290	369	440	809	151	361	22	9	352	124	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	20	MLB MLE	3 teams	—	678	614	174	40	4	30	57	127	2	32	5	283	347	508	855	225	316	19	8	371	137	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	21	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	—	660	580	157	34	3	21	70	139	5	13	3	271	353	448	801	178	328	21	11	353	125	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	22	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	497	443	136	24	1	25	49	97	2	2	1	307	380	535	915	228	352	20	10	397	155	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	23	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	486	430	98	20	1	16	51	117	2	3	0	228	318	391	709	163	278	24	10	314	98	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	24	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	345	303	85	18	1	22	37	81	2	1	0	281	364	564	928	284	310	23	11	393	152	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	25	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	—	221	202	53	9	0	5	14	49	3	0	0	262	318	381	699	119	324	22	6	311	97	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	26	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	—	640	558	154	32	1	27	73	116	4	0	0	276	364	482	846	206	308	18	11	370	137	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	27	MLB MLE	Minnesota Twins	—	590	523	152	24	1	22	59	121	3	0	1	291	365	467	832	176	339	21	10	367	134	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	28	MLB MLE	Minnesota Twins	—	580	515	118	29	2	18	56	131	4	0	0	229	308	398	707	169	272	23	10	314	99	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	29	MLB MLE	Minnesota Twins	—	367	325	99	20	2	14	36	61	3	0	0	305	380	508	888	203	343	17	10	387	148	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	30	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	—	584	533	145	27	0	13	45	113	1	0	0	272	328	396	723	124	328	19	8	326	107	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	31	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	—	141	123	34	8	0	3	17	26	0	1	0	276	364	415	779	138	330	18	12	345	120	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	29	MLB MLE	Minnesota Twins	—	367	325	99	20	2	14	36	61	3	0	0	305	380	508	888	203	343	17	10	387	148	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	30	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	—	584	533	145	27	0	13	45	113	1	0	0	272	328	396	723	124	328	19	8	326	107	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	31	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	—	141	123	34	8	0	3	17	26	0	1	0	276	364	415	779	138	330	18	12	345	120	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	32	MLB MLE	HOU	100%	304	272	73	14	1	8	28	57	1	2	0	270	340	419	758	149	311	19	9	337	114	+5	+0	-1	+3	+7	0.7
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	32	MLB CTX	HOU	100%	127	114	30	6	0	3	12	24	0	1	0	273	342	423	765	150	316	19	9	340	114	+2	+0	-0	+1	+3	0.6
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	33	MLB MLE	HOU	100%	426	384	101	19	1	11	38	83	1	2	0	262	331	402	733	139	306	19	9	327	107	+4	+0	-5	+5	+9	1.3
2029	34	MLB MLE	HOU	100%	328	295	75	14	0	8	29	66	1	1	0	253	320	381	701	128	298	20	9	314	98	-1	+0	-5	+4	+7	0.5
2030	35	MLB MLE	HOU	100%	132	120	29	5	0	3	11	28	0	0	0	242	308	358	666	116	289	21	8	299	89	-2	+0	-6	+1	+3	-0.3
2028	33	MLB CTX	HOU	100%	426	384	102	20	1	11	38	83	1	2	0	265	334	405	739	140	310	19	9	329	107	+4	+0	-5	+5	+9	1.3
2029	34	MLB CTX	HOU	100%	328	295	75	14	0	8	29	66	1	1	0	255	323	384	707	129	302	20	9	316	98	-1	+0	-5	+4	+7	0.5
2030	35	MLB CTX	HOU	100%	132	120	29	5	0	3	11	28	0	0	0	245	311	361	672	117	294	21	8	302	89	-2	+0	-6	+1	+3	-0.3
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	6371	5637	1538	311	14	225	648	1289	32	37	9	273	351	453	804	180	315	20	10	355	120	+197	+4	+32	+72	+138	45.1
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	575	157	32	1	23	66	132	3	4	1	273	350	452	803	179	315	20	10	355	120	+20	+0	+3	+7	+14	4.6
Career	—	MLE		—	7870	7028	1899	388	27	256	729	1631	47	93	26	270	343	442	785	172	316	21	9	345	120	+199	+4	+32	+73	+141	45.8
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	580	156	32	2	21	60	135	4	8	2	269	341	440	781	171	315	21	9	345	120	+20	+0	+3	+7	+14	4.6

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2019 AAARound Rock Express · 24 PAwOBA .389 → .326 (−63)K% 20.8% → 26.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	20.83%	÷1.022	×1.290	—	—	26.30%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	12.50%	÷1.030	×0.710	—	×1.033	8.90%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.980	—	×1.033	0.00%
Singles /BIP	25.00%	÷0.966	×0.900	—	×1.033	24.07%
Doubles /BIP	18.75%	÷0.995	×0.810	—	×1.033	15.77%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.126	×0.810	—	×1.033	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷0.948	×0.780	—	×1.033	0.00%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 90, 1B 93, 2B 99, 3B 125, K 104, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .389 → .326; ISO .143 → .117; BABIP .438 → .398. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 AACorpus Christi Hooks · 18 PAwOBA .306 → .229 (−78)K% 27.8% → 34.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	27.78%	÷0.997	×1.220	—	—	33.99%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	11.11%	÷1.036	×0.700	—	×1.012	7.60%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.870	—	×1.012	0.00%
Singles /BIP	9.09%	÷1.023	×0.920	—	×1.012	8.27%
Doubles /BIP	9.09%	÷1.075	×0.840	—	×1.012	7.19%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.900	×0.940	—	×1.012	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	9.09%	÷1.059	×0.800	—	×1.012	6.95%

Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 112, 1B 105, 2B 115, 3B 80, K 99, BB 107 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .306 → .229; ISO .250 → .184; BABIP .200 → .166. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 AAAFresno Grizzlies · 16 PAwOBA .281 → .262 (−19)K% 25.0% → 32.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	25.00%	÷0.992	×1.290	—	—	32.50%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	6.25%	÷1.028	×0.710	—	×1.050	4.53%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.980	—	×1.050	0.00%
Singles /BIP	40.00%	÷0.978	×0.900	—	×1.050	38.65%
Doubles /BIP	0.00%	÷0.926	×0.810	—	×1.050	0.00%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.150	×0.810	—	×1.050	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷0.963	×0.780	—	×1.050	0.00%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 93, 1B 96, 2B 85, 3B 130, K 98, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.2 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .281 → .262; ISO .000 → .000; BABIP .364 → .352. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2015 AACorpus Christi Hooks · 133 PAwOBA .490 → .433 (−57)K% 18.8% → 23.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	18.80%	÷0.964	×1.220	—	—	23.80%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	10.53%	÷1.003	×0.700	—	×1.050	7.71%
HBP% /PA	0.75%	—	×0.870	—	×1.050	0.69%
Singles /BIP	22.83%	÷1.022	×0.920	×1.035	×1.050	22.32%
Doubles /BIP	16.30%	÷0.963	×0.840	×1.035	×1.050	15.45%
Triples /BIP	2.17%	÷0.900	×0.940	×1.035	×1.050	2.47%
Home runs /BIP	7.61%	÷1.059	×0.800	—	×1.050	6.04%

Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 112, 1B 104, 2B 93, 3B 80, K 93, BB 101 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 24.8 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.035.

Result: wOBA .490 → .433; ISO .342 → .297; BABIP .447 → .428. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2015 AAAFresno Grizzlies · 113 PAwOBA .345 → .306 (−39)K% 12.4% → 15.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	12.39%	÷1.020	×1.290	—	—	15.67%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	9.73%	÷0.987	×0.710	—	×1.050	7.35%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.980	—	×1.050	0.00%
Singles /BIP	20.24%	÷0.972	×0.900	×1.006	×1.050	19.80%
Doubles /BIP	7.14%	÷1.051	×0.810	×1.006	×1.050	5.82%
Triples /BIP	1.19%	÷1.021	×0.810	×1.006	×1.050	1.00%
Home runs /BIP	3.57%	÷1.060	×0.780	—	×1.050	2.76%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 112, 1B 94, 2B 110, 3B 104, K 104, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (6.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.006.

Result: wOBA .345 → .306; ISO .173 → .143; BABIP .286 → .264. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2014 A+Lancaster JetHawks · 293 PAwOBA .402 → .352 (−49)K% 15.4% → 21.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	15.36%	÷0.948	×1.340	—	—	21.72%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	12.29%	÷0.987	×0.710	—	×1.042	9.21%
HBP% /PA	1.71%	—	×0.790	—	×1.042	1.40%
Singles /BIP	25.98%	÷0.999	×0.910	×1.050	×1.042	25.88%
Doubles /BIP	7.84%	÷0.963	×0.820	×1.050	×1.042	7.30%
Triples /BIP	2.94%	÷0.915	×0.760	×1.050	×1.042	2.67%
Home runs /BIP	2.94%	÷1.234	×0.920	—	×1.042	2.29%

Factors used: league row CAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 147, 1B 100, 2B 93, 3B 83, K 90, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.

Result: wOBA .402 → .352; ISO .185 → .155; BABIP .373 → .361. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2013 AQuad Cities River Bandits · 519 PAwOBA .378 → .335 (−43)K% 16.0% → 21.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	15.99%	÷1.032	×1.360	—	—	21.08%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	10.40%	÷0.993	×0.690	—	×1.045	7.55%
HBP% /PA	1.54%	—	×0.780	—	×1.045	1.26%
Singles /BIP	26.98%	÷1.047	×0.920	×1.031	×1.045	25.55%
Doubles /BIP	8.99%	÷0.920	×0.830	×1.031	×1.045	8.75%
Triples /BIP	0.82%	÷1.070	×0.910	×1.031	×1.045	0.75%
Home runs /BIP	2.45%	÷1.034	×0.800	—	×1.045	1.98%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 107, 1B 109, 2B 84, 3B 114, K 106, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 22.0 → +4.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.031.

Result: wOBA .378 → .335; ISO .147 → .131; BABIP .375 → .356. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2012 ROKGreeneville Astros · 204 PAwOBA .302 → .228 (−74)K% 21.6% → 30.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	21.57%	÷1.000	×1.420	—	—	30.63%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	5.39%	÷1.000	×0.640	—	×1.022	3.53%
HBP% /PA	0.49%	—	×0.740	—	×1.022	0.37%
Singles /BIP	20.55%	÷1.000	×0.840	×1.035	×1.022	18.27%
Doubles /BIP	9.59%	÷1.000	×0.740	×1.035	×1.022	7.51%
Triples /BIP	1.37%	÷1.000	×0.740	×1.035	×1.022	1.07%
Home runs /BIP	2.05%	÷1.000	×0.800	—	×1.022	1.68%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 19.5 → +2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.035.

Result: wOBA .302 → .228; ISO .142 → .103; BABIP .322 → .273. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 16 projected seasons	9.8	6,512	229	38	274	348	453	+66	+90	44.5	38.1
/162	664	23	4	+6.8	+9.2	4.5	pk7: 32
#1Jhonny Peraltalast yr '17 career totals — 14 seasons, 7,291 PA	11.0	7,291	202	17	267	329	423	+66	+63	42.9	37.5
/162	664	18	2	+6.1	+5.8	3.9	pk7: 32
#2Anthony Rendonlast yr '24 career totals — 12 seasons, 5,022 PA	7.6	5,022	158	55	280	364	464	+18	+21	38.5	37.2
/162	664	21	7	+2.4	+2.8	5.1	pk7: 36
#3Eric Chavez'98-'14 * career totals — 15 seasons, 6,227 PA	9.4	6,227	260	50	259*	335*	466*	+9	+49	39.9	37.1
/162	664	28	5	+1.0	+5.2	4.3	pk7: 34
#4DJ LeMahieulast yr '25 career totals — 15 seasons, 6,822 PA	10.3	6,822	126	93	289	350	409	+24	+66	40.2	36.1
/162	664	12	9	+2.4	+6.4	3.9	pk7: 32
#5Roy Smalley'75-'87 * career totals — 13 seasons, 6,594 PA	9.9	6,594	163	27	253*	344*	418*	+20	+50	33.1	30.5
/162	664	16	3	+2.0	+5.1	3.3	pk7: 28
#6John Valentin'92-'02 * career totals — 10 seasons, 4,511 PA	6.8	4,511	124	47	267*	344*	445*	+31	+38	27.5	27.1
/162	664	18	7	+4.6	+5.6	4.0	pk7: 27

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Carlos Correa (OGILVIE)	32	—	—	—	—	268/337/415	148	311	4	1	19%	9%	114	+0.6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Wilson Ramos 2020 · MLB	32	57→61	50→55	47→30	50	285/337/436	151	312	19	2	16%	7%	118	+2.7	255/306/414	159	284	21	4	18%	6%	102	+1.5	232/275/395	164	253	24	0	20%	5%	86	+0.1
✕Dioner Navarro 2016 · MLB	32	52→61	49→50	47→45	51	262/315/401	140	284	17	4	15%	7%	102	+1.5	227/287/357	130	268	14	5	20%	7%	82	-0.0	195/261/292	97	238	9	1	21%	8%	57	-0.7
✕Welington Castillo 2019 · MLB	32	50→56	52→55	48→30	42	256/303/415	159	317	22	4	26%	6%	101	+1.4	229/290/401	172	290	22	5	28%	7%	93	+0.8	205/266/409	204	245	28	0	29%	6%	88	+0.2
✕Kevan Smith 2021 · MLB	33	51→54	47→50	49→40	50	252/320/389	137	288	14	7	18%	8%	101	+1.4	221/287/336	115	291	11	8	26%	8%	77	-0.3	162/217/192	30	235	0	0	29%	7%	17	-0.8
●Asdrúbal Cabrera 2018 · MLB	32	56→63	52→60	45→50	50	280/339/452	172	312	19	5	17%	8%	123	+3.0	262/327/444	182	299	21	4	19%	9%	117	+2.6	254/322/441	187	289	22	2	20%	9%	115	+1.8
✕Gio Urshela 2023 · MLB	31	55→61	48→55	50→40	47	273/322/421	147	319	16	3	20%	7%	109	+2.0	263/306/379	116	307	11	4	18%	6%	93	+0.8	256/296/352	96	301	8	2	17%	5%	83	+0.1
✕John Jaso 2016 · MLB	32	54→57	49→50	44→45	56	266/349/425	159	309	15	5	18%	10%	120	+2.8	251/339/416	165	294	16	4	19%	11%	115	+2.4	243/339/410	166	284	16	1	19%	11%	114	+1.4
●Marlon Byrd 2010 · MLB	32	57→63	51→60	47→50	48	283/338/457	174	317	17	8	17%	6%	124	+3.1	273/324/410	137	311	13	6	16%	5%	107	+1.9	265/308/466	201	329	25	2	27%	5%	117	+2.5
✕Stephen Vogt 2017 · MLB	32	50→59	52→60	42→40	50	257/313/426	170	280	19	2	17%	7%	107	+1.9	245/301/428	183	275	21	4	19%	7%	103	+1.6	227/291/414	187	259	22	2	22%	8%	97	+0.6
✕David Freitas 2021 · MLB	32	55→60	46→45	44→40	49	269/331/400	131	322	13	4	20%	8%	108	+1.9	223/286/342	119	271	13	7	22%	8%	78	-0.3	204/257/306	102	247	11	0	22%	6%	58	-0.4
✕A.J. Ellis 2013 · MLB	32	52→54	44→45	41→40	57	254/348/376	122	301	12	2	19%	11%	109	+2.0	232/325/351	119	271	12	2	18%	11%	95	+1.0	219/320/329	110	252	11	0	17%	12%	91	+0.4
✕Zack Cozart 2019 · MLB	33	50→56	53→60	52→50	55	256/333/443	186	279	19	4	16%	9%	118	+2.7	219/290/349	130	248	13	6	17%	8%	82	-0.0	121/178/142	21	144	0	0	15%	5%	-8	-1.2
✕Jean Segura 2022 · MLB	32	56→62	47→50	49→60	50	276/332/419	143	305	14	9	15%	7%	112	+2.2	250/309/355	105	283	12	14	16%	7%	89	+0.5	246/304/328	82	279	10	17	15%	7%	82	-0.0
✕Kevin Plawecki 2022 · MLB	31	54→59	44→45	47→30	50	264/327/385	121	301	12	5	16%	7%	103	+1.5	233/294/335	102	278	9	3	19%	7%	79	-0.2	216/275/308	92	258	8	0	19%	7%	64	-0.6
●Marco Scutaro 2008 · MLB	32	53→63	44→45	48→45	57	255/328/377	122	278	11	6	13%	10%	101	+1.4	265/343/375	110	289	10	8	11%	10%	107	+1.8	272/347/387	115	291	10	8	10%	10%	111	+2.2
✕Daniel Descalso 2019 · MLB	32	46→56	51→50	48→45	58	232/334/401	168	284	17	4	24%	13%	109	+2.0	201/297/334	133	273	14	6	29%	12%	81	-0.1	159/261/244	85	219	9	5	30%	12%	48	-0.9
●Chris Iannetta 2015 · MLB	32	50→58	48→60	44→45	60	241/354/387	146	309	14	4	25%	14%	114	+2.4	223/323/380	157	281	18	3	25%	12%	101	+1.4	221/324/409	187	276	23	0	27%	12%	110	+1.0
✕Shea Hillenbrand 2007 · MLB	32	56→62	51→55	44→40	45	284/325/448	164	298	19	4	13%	4%	117	+2.6	252/286/380	128	272	15	5	14%	4%	86	+0.3	240/257/318	77	262	9	0	12%	2%	60	-0.9
✕Ryan Doumit 2013 · MLB	32	52→62	52→55	44→45	46	266/317/439	173	298	19	2	18%	6%	112	+2.2	243/297/396	153	284	18	4	21%	7%	95	+0.9	232/289/373	141	272	16	2	21%	7%	87	+0.2
✕Aledmys Díaz 2022 · MLB	31	49→57	50→55	43→45	46	247/305/403	156	278	17	4	18%	6%	100	+1.3	233/283/370	137	265	15	4	18%	5%	84	+0.1	231/279/365	133	261	15	2	18%	5%	81	-0.0

Carlos Correa

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps