Carlos CorreaSS Houston Astros
Age 31 R/R 6'3" / 220 lbs MLB HR +6% Svc 10.692 · Ctrl thru 2028 ILInjured 60-Day (D60)
2026 ROS PROJECTION141 act + 198 ros · stats below = ROS only
wRC+†vL 148142vR 125
AVG/OBP/SLG.267 / .342 / .409
PA198
HR5
K%19
BB%10
BABIP311
ISO142
MLB%100%
Value2026 · WAR
BAT: +8.2 runs (wOBA-derived runs vs avg)+8BATRUN: +0.6 runs (SB/CS + UBR baserunning)+1RUNFLD: +1.6 runs (Defensive runs vs avg)+2FLDPOS: +3.6 runs (Positional adjustment)+4POSREP: +9.6 runs (Replacement-level credit)+10REPTotal WAR: +2.40+2.4WAR
0.02.55.01.02.81.9-$35M ctrl surplus26272829303132333435
projected WAR paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit post-control
Tools · Splits · ContractCON 63 / POW 55
Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2024-2026
CONTACT63
Whiff%
817.8%
xwOBA
840.348
POWER55
Barrel%
498.1
Avg EV
6790.3
Bat Spd
7273.6
EYE56
Chase%
7726.4%
SPEED48
Sprint
4327.2
DEFENSE65
scouting grade only
Platoon Splits2024-2026 · 1055 PA
vs LHP
vs RHP
Edge
PA
260
795
wRC+
140
119
◀◀L
wOBA
369
341
L
ISO
198
137
◀◀L
BABIP
312
339
R
K%
17.3%
18.5%
L
BB%
10.0%
8.3%
◀◀L
Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status   FA
MLB Debut   2015
Service   10.692 yrs.days
Team Control Through   2028
First FA Year   2027
NTCOPT
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2026ROSExt$13M+1.0$4M-$9M
2027Ext$33M+2.8$21M-$9M
2028Ext$33M+1.9$13M-$14M
Totals $80M $38M -$33M
Options · projected decision
2029CLUB OPT$32.0M / $0.0M buyoutDECLINE
2030CLUB OPT$25.0M / $0.0M buyoutDECLINE
2031CLUB OPT$20.0M / $0.0M buyoutDECLINE
2032CLUB OPT$15.0M / $0.0M buyoutDECLINE
2033CLUB OPT$10.0M / $0.0M buyoutDECLINE
Underwater contract
Projected production over the remaining contract is worth -$33M less than the salary owed. Most often this reflects an aging-curve fade that was visible at signing — the team paid a premium for the early years.

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

YearAge LvlTeam MLB% PAAB H2B3BHR BBSOHBP SBCS AVGOBPSLGOPS ISOBABIP K%BB% wOBAwRC+ BATRUNFLDPOSREP WAR
201217 ROK2 teams 256244 471223 9781 72 193224295519 102270 304 223 29
201217 ROK2 teams 256239 591623 14591 72 247291368660 121316 235 293 82
201318 AQuad Cities River Bandits 519470 1293427 381068 1010 274339400739 126340 207 324 106
201318 AQuad Cities River Bandits 519450 1443339 58838 1010 320407467874 147375 1611 389 156
201419 A+Lancaster JetHawks 293259 731464 26675 204 282359429787 147361 239 336 115
201419 A+Lancaster JetHawks 293249 811666 36455 204 325421510931 185373 1512 408 170
201520 MLB3 teams 678611 17040428 581302 325 278343494837 216309 199 358 132 +25 +4 -2 +7 +19 5.5
201520 MLB3 teams 678602 18043432 671172 325 299371543914 244322 1710 395 161 +46 +4 -2 +7 +19 7.7
201621 MLBHouston Astros 660577 15434319 751395 133 267356435791 168320 2111 344 121 +16 +1 -8 +7 +19 3.6
201621 MLBHouston Astros 660577 15836320 751395 133 274362451813 177328 2111 361 134 +26 +1 -8 +7 +19 4.6
201722 MLB2 teams 497436 13424123 54972 21 307386525911 218346 2011 384 152 +29 +0 +0 +5 +14 5.0
201722 MLB2 teams 497436 13725124 54962 21 314392541934 227352 1911 406 168 +38 +0 +0 +5 +14 6.0
201823 MLB2 teams 486419 9620115 541172 30 229320389709 160272 2411 305 92 -5 +1 +17 +5 +14 3.3
201823 MLB2 teams 486418 9921116 551162 30 237328407735 170279 2411 323 105 +3 +1 +17 +5 +14 4.0
201924 MLB2 teams 345302 8218120 37812 10 272355536891 265302 2311 379 148 +19 +0 +10 +4 +10 4.3
201924 MLB2 teams 345301 8519121 38802 10 282367561928 279314 2311 399 163 +25 +0 +10 +4 +10 4.9
202025 MLBHouston Astros 221201 53905 16493 00 264327383710 119324 227 303 90 -2 +0 +5 +2 +6 1.1
202025 MLBHouston Astros 221201 53905 16493 00 264327383710 119324 227 320 103 +1 +0 +5 +2 +6 1.4
202126 MLBHouston Astros 640555 15233125 751164 00 274364472836 198302 1812 359 133 +24 +0 +13 +7 +18 6.3
202126 MLBHouston Astros 640555 15534126 751164 00 279369485854 205308 1812 375 145 +32 +0 +13 +7 +18 7.2
202227 MLBMinnesota Twins 590522 15224122 611213 01 291369467836 176339 2110 362 135 +24 -0 +1 +6 +17 4.8
202227 MLBMinnesota Twins 590522 15224122 611213 01 291369467836 176339 2110 369 141 +27 -0 +1 +6 +17 5.2
202328 MLBMinnesota Twins 580514 11829218 591314 00 230314399713 169272 2310 310 95 -3 +0 +2 +6 +16 2.3
202328 MLBMinnesota Twins 580514 11829218 591314 00 230314399713 169272 2310 318 102 +1 +0 +2 +6 +16 2.7
202429 MLBMinnesota Twins 367320 9920214 40613 00 309391516907 206341 1711 383 151 +21 +0 +5 +4 +10 4.2
202429 MLBMinnesota Twins 367319 9920214 40613 00 310391517908 207343 1711 396 161 +25 +0 +5 +4 +10 4.6
202530 MLBHouston Astros 584537 14528012 451131 00 270328389717 119322 198 319 102 +1 +0 +2 +6 +17 2.7
202530 MLBHouston Astros 584537 14829013 451131 00 276333402735 127328 198 329 110 +7 +0 +2 +6 +17 3.3
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD31 MLBHOU 141122 34803 18260 10 279371418789 139330 1813 345 122 +4 +0 +2 +2 +4 1.2
YTD31 MLBHOU 141122 34803 18260 10 279371418789 139330 1813 354 129 +5 +0 +2 +2 +4 1.3
ROS31 MLBHOU 100% 198176 471005 19371 10 267342409751 142317 1910 343 121 +5 +0 -1 +2 +6 1.2
ROS31 MLBHOU 100% 198176 481105 19371 10 273347420767 148320 1910 345 122 +5 +0 -1 +2 +6 1.3
FULL31 MLBHOU 339298 821908 37631 20 275357419777 144323 1911 345 122 +8 +0 +2 +4 +10 2.4
TOT31 MLBHOU 339298 811808 37631 20 272354413767 141319 1911 344 121 +8 +0 +2 +4 +10 2.4
▸ 2027+ Projections   WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ
202732 MLBHOU 100% 572510 13629114 561101 20 267340410750 143312 1910 336 116 +10 +0 -5 +6 +16 2.8
202833 MLBHOU 100% 494442 11524112 48971 10 260334400734 140307 2010 328 110 +5 +0 -6 +5 +14 2.0
202934 MLBHOU 100% 417373 941919 40851 10 252326381707 129301 2010 318 102 +1 +0 -6 +4 +12 1.1
203035 MLBHOU 100% 354316 781518 34751 00 247322377699 130293 2110 307 93 -3 +0 -7 +4 +10 0.4
203136 MLBHOU 100% 295265 621116 28650 00 234307351658 117285 229 295 84 -5 +0 -7 +3 +8 -0.1
203237 MLBHOU 100% 232208 46804 22530 00 221296317613 96276 239 282 74 -7 +0 -8 +2 +7 -0.6
202732 MLBHOU 100% 572510 13830115 561101 20 271344422765 151316 1910 338 117 +11 +0 -5 +6 +16 2.9
202833 MLBHOU 100% 494442 11624112 48971 10 262336403739 140311 2010 330 111 +6 +0 -6 +5 +14 2.0
202934 MLBHOU 100% 417373 9519110 40851 10 255329391720 137303 2010 320 103 +2 +0 -6 +4 +12 1.2
203035 MLBHOU 100% 354316 781518 34751 00 247322377699 130296 2110 309 95 -2 +0 -7 +4 +10 0.5
203136 MLBHOU 100% 295265 621116 28650 00 234307351658 117288 229 297 85 -5 +0 -7 +3 +8 -0.1
203237 MLBHOU 100% 232208 46804 22530 00 221296317613 96279 239 284 75 -6 +0 -8 +2 +7 -0.5
▸ Career Totals
Career 79067006 188138218260 799160835 389 268346439786 171312 2010 348 124 +216 +4 +7 +88 +224 55.0
/ 162G 650576 15331121 661323 31 266345432777 167308 2010 348 124 +18 +0 +1 +7 +18 4.5
Career 92788257 218245531273 894192850 9326 264340426766 162312 2110 334 114 +143 +8 +7 +99 +263 53.1
/ 162G 650578 15332219 631354 72 265342426767 161312 2110 334 114 +10 +1 +0 +7 +18 3.7

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

YearAge LvlTeam MLB% PAAB H2B3BHR BBSOHBP SBCS AVGOBPSLGOPS ISOBABIP K%BB% wOBAwRC+ BATRUNFLDPOSREP WAR
201217 ROKGreeneville Astros 204190 491423 12441 61 258305400705 142322 226 312 97 -1 +1 +6 0.6
201217 INTLGigantes de Carolina 5249 10200 2150 11 204235245480 41294 294 215 23 -5 -0 +1 -0.3
201318 AQuad Cities River Bandits 519450 1443339 58838 1010 320407467874 147375 1611 389 156 +33 -2 +15 4.6
201419 A+Lancaster JetHawks 293249 811666 36455 204 325421510931 185373 1512 408 170 +23 +2 +8 3.5
201520 MLBHouston Astros 432387 10822122 40781 144 279348512860 233296 189 373 144 +21 +1 -2 +7 +12 4.1
201520 AAAFresno Grizzlies 11398 27613 12140 31 276355449804 173286 1211 348 124 +3 +0 +3 0.7
201520 AACorpus Christi Hooks 133117 451527 15251 150 3854597261.185 342447 1911 506 245 +22 +3 +4 2.9
201621 MLBHouston Astros 660577 15836320 751395 133 274362451813 177328 2111 361 134 +26 +1 -8 +7 +19 4.6
201722 MLBHouston Astros 481422 13325124 53922 21 315394550944 235352 1911 410 172 +39 +0 +0 +5 +14 6.0
201722 AAAFresno Grizzlies 1614 4000 140 00 286333286619 364 256 270 65 -1 +0 +0 -0.0
201823 MLBHouston Astros 468402 9620115 531112 30 239330405736 167282 2411 323 106 +3 +1 +17 +5 +13 4.0
201823 AACorpus Christi Hooks 1816 3101 250 00 188278438715 250200 2811 315 99 -0 +0 +1 0.1
201924 MLBHouston Astros 321280 7816121 35752 10 279363568931 289303 2311 399 163 +23 +0 +10 +4 +9 4.7
201924 AAARound Rock Express 2421 7300 350 00 333417476893 143438 2112 399 163 +2 +0 +1 0.2
202025 MLBHouston Astros 221201 53905 16493 00 264327383710 119324 227 320 103 +1 +0 +5 +2 +6 1.4
202126 MLBHouston Astros 640555 15534126 751164 00 279369485854 205308 1812 375 145 +32 +0 +13 +7 +18 7.2
202227 MLBMinnesota Twins 590522 15224122 611213 01 291369467836 176339 2110 369 141 +27 -0 +1 +6 +17 5.2
202328 MLBMinnesota Twins 580514 11829218 591314 00 230314399713 169272 2310 318 102 +1 +0 +2 +6 +16 2.7
202429 MLBMinnesota Twins 367319 9920214 40613 00 310391517908 207343 1711 396 161 +25 +0 +5 +4 +10 4.6
202530 MLBHouston Astros 584537 14829013 451131 00 276333402735 127328 198 329 110 +7 +0 +2 +6 +17 3.3
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career 53444716 129826413200 552108630 339 275355464819 189316 2010 360 134 +205 +3 +46 +61 +151 47.6

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 gamesYRSPAHRSBAVGOBPSLGPOSFLDWARJAWS
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION
career totals — every cell rolls up across 19 projected seasons
198,18826539269343439+78+10750.541.1
/162664223+6.4+8.74.1pk7: 32
#1A.J. Pierzynskilast yr '16
AS×3SS×2
career totals — 17 seasons, 7,778 PA
177,77818815280318420+116+8147.138.8
/162664161+9.9+6.94.0pk7: 31
#2Jhonny Peraltalast yr '17
career totals — 14 seasons, 7,291 PA
147,29120217267329423+66+6342.937.5
/162664182+6.1+5.83.9pk7: 32
#3Asdrúbal Cabreralast yr '21
career totals — 15 seasons, 7,401 PA
157,40119591266329423+58+1138.232.2
/162664178+5.2+1.03.4pk7: 26
#4Jason Variteklast yr '11
career totals — 12 seasons, 5,047 PA
125,04716622255343431+61+1533.130.8
/162664223+8.0+1.94.4pk7: 28
#5Ramon Hernandezlast yr '13
career totals — 14 seasons, 5,543 PA
145,5431668263326418+65+5733.730.7
/162664201+7.7+6.94.0pk7: 28
#6Wilson Ramoslast yr '21
career totals — 12 seasons, 3,786 PA
123,7861361271318432+68+6128.026.7
/162664240+11.9+10.74.9pk7: 25

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

Scouting At Match Age Next 3 Yrs Peak 3 Yrs
Comp Age HIT PWR SPD EYE AVG/OBP/SLG ISOBABIP HRSB K%BB% wRC+WAR AVG/OBP/SLG ISOBABIP HRSB K%BB% wRC+WAR AVG/OBP/SLG ISOBABIP HRSB K%BB% wRC+WAR
Carlos Correa (OGILVIE) 31 60→63 51→55 51→48 56 272/354/413 141319 82 19% 11% 121 +2.4
Wilson Ramos
2020 · MLB
32 56→60 50→60 47→30 52 282/340/435 152308 192 16% 8% 121 +3.2 256/309/417 161284 214 18% 7% 105 +2.1 236/279/40416825724020%5%86+0.3
Gio Urshela
2023 · MLB
31 55→60 48→55 50→40 47 273/323/419 146319 163 20% 7% 111 +2.5 264/308/381 117309 114 18% 6% 94 +1.3 260/300/359993058217%5%82+0.2
John Jaso
2015 · MLB
31 54→57 49→50 51→45 58 268/358/426 158306 156 17% 11% 127 +3.6 262/349/424 162308 144 19% 11% 122 +3.3 255/351/42016630114119%12%119+1.6
Ryan Doumit
2012 · MLB
31 52→62 50→55 46→45 51 262/326/420 158293 184 18% 8% 112 +2.6 256/313/418 162295 183 19% 7% 106 +2.2 249/306/40715828818120%7%95+0.9
Dioner Navarro
2015 · MLB
31 54→61 48→50 46→45 50 270/320/407 137293 174 15% 7% 106 +2.2 239/296/370 131274 154 18% 7% 86 +0.8 211/277/32110924912120%8%64-0.3
Marco Scutaro
2007 · MLB
31 53→63 45 51→45 55 256/323/390 134284 107 14% 9% 102 +1.9 261/340/374 113287 108 12% 10% 105 +2.1 298/352/39395314657%7%112+2.4
Asdrúbal Cabrera
2018 · MLB
32 54→63 52→55 45→50 51 274/337/445 171305 195 17% 8% 123 +3.3 260/327/441 181296 214 19% 9% 118 +3.0 253/322/44018728722220%9%113+1.9
Stephen Vogt
2017 · MLB
32 52→61 52→60 42→40 52 262/323/431 170287 192 17% 8% 114 +2.7 250/308/438 188281 214 19% 8% 110 +2.4 233/300/42619326522222%9%99+0.8
Marwin Gonzalez
2020 · MLB
31 51→58 51→55 43→50 50 260/326/422 162305 194 22% 8% 113 +2.6 223/294/354 131272 155 23% 8% 82 +0.5 194/269/30511223913524%7%58-0.5
Logan Forsythe
2018 · MLB
31 51→56 48→55 42→50 55 250/344/399 150310 157 23% 11% 115 +2.7 231/322/339 108301 105 24% 11% 90 +1.0 227/317/315882967423%11%79+0.2
Aledmys Díaz
2022 · MLB
31 49→58 49→55 43→45 47 247/310/398 151280 164 19% 6% 100 +1.7 233/287/367 134267 144 18% 6% 82 +0.5 232/283/36313026414218%5%76+0.0
Shea Hillenbrand
2006 · MLB
31 58→62 50→55 49→40 46 292/338/454 162305 174 11% 4% 126 +3.5 268/306/412 144287 173 13% 4% 102 +1.8 263/294/39913728017113%3%90+0.8
Chris Iannetta
2015 · MLB
32 50→57 48→60 44→45 61 243/360/394 151311 154 25% 14% 121 +3.2 225/327/385 160284 183 25% 12% 105 +2.1 216/316/38717226521026%12%98+0.9
José A. Martínez
2019 · MLB
31 58→68 51→50 43→50 51 289/348/449 159332 185 18% 8% 128 +3.7 266/333/414 148322 175 21% 9% 113 +2.6 278/350/41413633915621%10%118+1.9
Marlon Byrd
2010 · MLB
32 57→63 51→60 47→50 49 285/343/460 175319 178 17% 7% 129 +3.7 274/326/410 136313 136 16% 5% 109 +2.4 268/316/47020233425227%5%116+2.8
Matthew LeCroy
2007 · MLB
31 50 53→55 46→30 53 256/337/422 167304 223 23% 10% 118 +3.0 208/275/317 109252 115 21% 7% 65 -0.7 165/226/231672025020%6%20-1.9
Starlin Castro
2021 · MLB
31 55→63 50 44→50 46 275/315/436 160309 184 18% 6% 111 +2.5 263/317/385 122313 115 18% 7% 98 +1.6 278/332/369913375018%8%97+0.9
Wilson Betemit
2013 · MLB
31 54→56 51→60 44→40 48 266/331/431 165346 174 27% 9% 117 +2.9 229/290/372 143311 174 30% 8% 85 +0.7 186/249/32513925119134%8%56-1.0
David Freese
2014 · MLB
31 56→59 48→55 40 52 276/350/421 145331 153 21% 9% 122 +3.3 263/333/407 144332 153 24% 8% 112 +2.6 287/377/45516835820023%10%137+2.4
Kevin Plawecki
2022 · MLB
31 54→56 44→45 47→30 50 263/325/383 120299 125 16% 7% 102 +1.8 231/294/333 102280 93 20% 7% 76 +0.1 212/275/305932599021%7%58-0.5