Kyle Freeland — OGILVIE

Kyle Freeland P Colorado Rockies

Age 33 LHP 6'4" / 202 lbs MLB Svc 8.0 · Ctrl thru 2026 peak 1.2 · 2026 ILInjured 15-Day (D15)

2026 ROS PROJECTION127 act + 12 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 100108vR 117

ERA4.21

FIP4.05

K%17.9%

BB%5.2%

K-BB%12.7%

ROS IP12

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 139 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit option yr━ post-control-$19M ctrl surplus

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4040

CTRL7070

CMD6060

K†3040

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p1091.4

Whiff%

p3022.5%

p2518.6%

xwOBA vs

p210.346

CT+1.5 (22%)

CH+1.0 (13%)

SI (9%)

CU (22%)

FB-0.6 (33%)

SL-0.9 (10%)

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status FA

MLB Debut 2017

Service 8.837 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2026

First FA Year 2027

OPT

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext	$1M	+0.1	$0.3M	-$0.7M
Totals		$1M		$0.3M	-$0.7M

Options · projected decision
2027	PLAYER OPT	$17.0M / $0.0M buyout	EXERCISE

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2015	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	9	9	47	196	28	10	5	100%	5.2	8.7%	5.4%	3.2%	4.5%	4.05	5.51	—
2015	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	9	9	47	196	28	10	5	100%	5.2	14.3%	5.1%	9.2%	2.6%	4.05	3.94	—
2016	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	26	162	675	108	44	16	100%	6.2	13.6%	7.0%	6.5%	2.4%	3.89	4.17	—
2016	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	26	162	675	108	44	16	100%	6.2	16.0%	6.5%	9.5%	2.4%	3.89	3.87	—
2017	24	MLB MLE	Colorado Rockies	33	28	156	688	107	59	17	85%	4.7	15.6%	8.6%	7.0%	2.2%	4.10	4.08	+1.5
2017	24	MLB RAW	Colorado Rockies	33	28	156	688	107	59	17	85%	4.7	15.6%	8.6%	7.0%	2.5%	4.10	4.28	+1.1
2018	25	MLB MLE	Colorado Rockies	33	33	202	844	173	68	17	100%	6.1	20.5%	8.1%	12.4%	1.8%	2.85	3.37	+3.8
2018	25	MLB RAW	Colorado Rockies	33	33	202	844	173	68	17	100%	6.1	20.5%	8.1%	12.4%	2.0%	2.85	3.49	+3.5
2019	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	28	134	616	107	52	29	100%	4.8	16.8%	8.6%	8.3%	4.2%	7.19	5.09	-0.3
2019	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	28	28	134	616	107	52	29	100%	4.8	17.4%	8.4%	8.9%	4.7%	7.19	5.48	-0.9
2020	27	MLB MLE	Colorado Rockies	13	13	71	304	46	23	9	100%	5.4	15.1%	7.6%	7.6%	2.6%	4.33	4.22	+0.6
2020	27	MLB RAW	Colorado Rockies	13	13	71	304	46	23	9	100%	5.4	15.1%	7.6%	7.6%	3.0%	4.33	4.43	+0.4
2021	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	25	131	552	109	39	20	100%	5.2	20.4%	7.2%	13.2%	3.4%	4.13	4.18	+1.1
2021	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	25	131	552	109	39	20	100%	5.2	19.7%	7.1%	12.7%	3.6%	4.13	4.32	+0.9
2022	29	MLB MLE	Colorado Rockies	31	31	175	766	131	53	19	100%	5.6	17.1%	6.9%	10.2%	2.2%	4.53	3.74	+2.4
2022	29	MLB RAW	Colorado Rockies	31	31	175	766	131	53	19	100%	5.6	17.1%	6.9%	10.2%	2.5%	4.53	3.92	+2.0
2023	30	MLB MLE	Colorado Rockies	29	29	156	677	94	42	29	100%	5.4	13.9%	6.2%	7.7%	3.8%	5.03	4.80	+0.2
2023	30	MLB MLE	Colorado Rockies	29	29	156	677	94	42	29	100%	5.4	13.9%	6.2%	7.7%	3.8%	5.03	4.80	+0.2
2023	30	MLB RAW	Colorado Rockies	29	29	156	677	94	42	29	100%	5.4	13.9%	6.2%	7.7%	4.3%	5.03	5.12	-0.4
2024	31	MIX MLE	3 levels	24	24	123	529	94	31	23	100%	5.1	17.3%	5.3%	12.0%	4.0%	5.04	4.49	+0.6
2024	31	MIX MLE	3 levels	24	24	123	529	94	31	23	100%	5.1	17.3%	5.3%	12.0%	4.0%	5.04	4.49	+0.6
2024	31	MIX RAW	3 levels	24	24	123	529	94	31	23	100%	5.1	17.8%	5.9%	11.9%	4.3%	5.04	4.75	+0.2
2025	32	MLB MLE	Colorado Rockies	31	31	163	709	124	36	22	100%	5.2	17.5%	5.1%	12.4%	2.8%	4.98	3.78	+2.2
2025	32	MLB MLE	Colorado Rockies	31	31	163	709	124	36	22	100%	5.2	17.5%	5.1%	12.4%	2.8%	4.98	3.78	+2.2
2025	32	MLB RAW	Colorado Rockies	31	31	163	709	124	36	22	100%	5.2	17.5%	5.1%	12.4%	3.1%	4.98	4.00	+1.7
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			259	254	1385	6020	1047	408	204	98%	5.3	17.4%	6.8%	10.6%	3.4%	4.71	4.39	+8.3
▸ 2026 season
YTD	33	MLB MLE	Colorado Rockies	24	23	127	563	108	29	24	96%	5.3	18.6%	5.1%	13.5%	3.8%	6.22	4.28	+0.9
YTD	33	MLB MLE	Colorado Rockies	24	23	127	563	108	29	24	96%	5.3	18.6%	5.1%	13.5%	3.8%	6.22	4.28	+0.9
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	33	AA RAW	COL	1	0	3	9	5	1	0	0%	3.0	55.6%	11.1%	44.4%	0.0%	0.00	-0.18	—
2026	33	MLB RAW	COL	23	23	124	554	103	28	24	100%	5.4	18.6%	5.1%	13.5%	4.3%	6.37	4.55	+0.5
SO FAR	33	MLB RAW	COL	23	23	124	554	103	28	24	100%	5.4	18.6%	5.1%	13.5%	4.3%	6.37	4.55	+0.5
ROS	33	MLB MLE	COL	2	2	12	49	9	3	2	100%	5.8	17.9%	5.2%	12.7%	3.3%	4.21	4.05	+0.1
ROS	33	MLB CTX	COL	2	2	12	51	9	3	2	100%	6.0	17.9%	5.2%	12.7%	3.8%	4.48	4.32	+0.1
2026 TOT	33	MLB MLE	COL	—	—	139	612	117	32	26	—	—	19.1%	5.2%	13.9%	4.2%	6.05	4.26	+1.0
FULL	33	MLB A+C	COL	—	—	136	574	117	32	26	—	—	20.3%	5.5%	14.8%	4.5%	6.21	4.55	+1.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	34	MLB MLE	COL	21	21	125	529	89	30	21	100%	6.0	16.8%	5.7%	11.1%	4.1%	4.96	5.01	-0.2
2028	35	MLB MLE	COL	19	19	112	475	75	29	21	100%	5.9	15.8%	6.2%	9.6%	4.4%	5.19	5.35	-0.6
2027	34	MLB CTX	COL	21	21	125	528	88	30	25	100%	6.0	16.8%	5.7%	11.1%	4.7%	5.30	5.35	-0.2
2028	35	MLB CTX	COL	19	19	112	473	75	29	24	100%	5.9	15.8%	6.2%	9.6%	5.1%	5.56	5.72	-0.6
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		301	296	1634	7072	1219	470	255	98%	5.4	17.2%	6.6%	10.6%	3.6%	4.81	4.46	+8.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		37	36	200	866	149	58	31	98%	5.4	17.2%	6.6%	10.6%	3.6%	4.81	4.46	+1.0
Career	—	MLE		306	300	1646	7119	1196	488	213	98%	5.4	16.8%	6.9%	9.9%	3.0%	4.64	4.19	+7.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		37	36	200	865	145	59	26	98%	5.4	16.8%	6.9%	9.9%	3.0%	4.64	4.19	+0.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Kyle Freeland (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.53	16.0%	5.3%	3.1%	—	5.17	16.3%	10.4%	238	+0.64	—	—	—
Jon Lester L 2017 · 4.00 FIP	33	SP	4.00	23.6%	7.5%	3.5%	.306	4.30	19.9%	12.5%	414	+0.30	2.81	1,144	74
Wei-Yin Chen L 2018 · 4.29 FIP	33	SP	4.29	19.4%	7.2%	3.5%	.279	4.85	20.5%	15.3%	68	+0.56	3.68	549	72
Mike Minor L 2021 · 4.30 FIP	33	SP	4.30	22.3%	6.1%	4.2%	.287	5.10	18.0%	10.9%	114	+0.80	2.43	807	72
Cole Hamels L 2017 · 4.28 FIP	33	SP	4.28	17.1%	8.5%	2.8%	.244	4.05	23.3%	14.8%	332	-0.23	3.21	893	68
J.A. Happ L 2016 · 3.84 FIP	33	SP	3.84	20.5%	7.5%	2.8%	.265	4.05	23.3%	16.2%	484	+0.21	3.37	1,053	61
Drew Smyly L 2022 · 4.16 FIP	33	SP	4.16	20.4%	5.8%	3.7%	.271	4.66	22.3%	13.5%	201	+0.50	2.00	840	61
Gio Gonzalez L 2019 · 3.79 FIP	33	SP	3.79	21.7%	9.6%	2.4%	.300	4.91	22.2%	9.8%	32	+1.12	2.90	864	58
Clayton Richard L 2017 · 3.89 FIP	33	SP	3.89	17.6%	6.2%	2.7%	.343	4.67	14.7%	5.9%	204	+0.78	3.56	574	55
Wade LeBlanc L 2018 · 4.23 FIP	33	SP	4.23	19.6%	5.9%	3.7%	.271	5.12	16.4%	10.2%	227	+0.89	3.65	609	54
David Price L 2019 · 3.47 FIP	33	SP	3.47	27.9%	7.0%	3.4%	.332	3.76	19.4%	13.1%	114	+0.29	2.65	922	53
CC Sabathia L 2015 · 4.31 FIP	35	SP	4.31	18.9%	6.5%	3.6%	.311	3.97	20.1%	12.1%	481	-0.34	3.76	756	52
Eric Stults L 2015 · 4.27 FIP	35	SP	4.27	14.5%	5.9%	3.0%	.266	—	—	—	—	—	4.27	138	50
Jorge De La Rosa L 2015 · 3.86 FIP	34	SP	3.86	21.1%	9.8%	2.4%	.284	4.36	18.4%	8.9%	256	+0.50	3.86	405	49
C.J. Wilson L 2015 · 3.69 FIP	34	SP	3.69	19.9%	8.0%	2.3%	.272	—	—	—	—	—	3.69	132	49
Tsuyoshi Wada L 2015 · 3.66 FIP	34	SP	3.66	16.8%	7.1%	2.0%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.66	119	48
Jonathan Sánchez L 2019 · 4.73 FIP	36	SP	4.73	18.1%	8.3%	3.9%	.339	—	—	—	—	—	4.73	109	47
Jorge Castillo L 2015 · 4.50 FIP	33	SP	4.50	16.8%	9.2%	3.0%	.292	4.95	12.4%	7.2%	186	+0.45	4.50	408	45
Oscar Rivera L 2015 · 3.68 FIP	34	SP	3.68	14.2%	6.9%	1.7%	.298	4.66	10.4%	3.0%	129	+0.98	3.68	237	45
Roy Merritt L 2017 · 3.95 FIP	31	SP	3.95	16.2%	5.8%	2.7%	.339	—	—	—	—	—	3.93	129	45
Felix Doubront L 2019 · 3.44 FIP	31	SP	3.44	17.6%	5.0%	2.1%	.354	—	—	—	—	—	3.44	291	44

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.8	121	16.2%	5.7%	1.49	4.94
Cole Irvin ('24)	2.9	118	17.1%	5.6%	1.28	4.46
Zach Plesac ('23)	2.3	93	18.4%	6.3%	1.39	4.20
Yonny Chirinos ('24)	1.7	84	18.9%	6.6%	1.38	4.37
Homer Bailey ('19)	1.9	96	18.5%	7.8%	1.34	5.56
Daniel Mengden ('19)	1.5	73	17.3%	7.7%	1.24	4.68
Mike Foltynewicz ('21)	4.0	134	21.4%	7.7%	1.46	4.45