Kyle Freeland — OGILVIE

Kyle Freeland P Colorado Rockies

Age 33 LHP 6'4" / 202 lbs MLB Svc 8.0 · Ctrl thru 2026 peak 1.7 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION88 act + 59 ip · rates below = ROS only

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 104114vR 123

ERA4.33

FIP4.10

K%18.4%

BB%4.9%

K-BB%13.5%

ROS IP59

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 147 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit option yr━ post-control

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4040

CTRL7070

CMD6060

K†3040

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p1091.5

Whiff%

p3322.9%

p3319.7%

xwOBA vs

p100.359

CT+1.5 (22%)

CH+1.0 (15%)

SI (5%)

CU (23%)

FB-0.6 (31%)

SL-0.9 (10%)

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status FA

MLB Debut 2017

Service 8.837 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2026

First FA Year 2027

OPT

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext	$5M	+0.8	$3M	-$2M
Totals		$5M		$3M	-$2M

Options · projected decision
2027	PLAYER OPT	$17.0M / $0.0M buyout	EXERCISE

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2015	22	MIX	2 levels	9	9	47	196	28	10	5	100%	5.2	8.7%	5.4%	3.2%	5.7%	4.05	6.17	—
2015	22	MIX	2 levels	9	9	47	196	28	10	5	100%	5.2	14.3%	5.1%	9.2%	2.6%	4.05	3.94	—
2016	23	MIX	2 levels	26	26	162	675	108	44	16	100%	6.2	13.6%	7.0%	6.5%	2.2%	3.89	4.03	—
2016	23	MIX	2 levels	26	26	162	675	108	44	16	100%	6.2	16.0%	6.5%	9.5%	2.4%	3.89	3.87	—
2017	24	MLB	Colorado Rockies	33	28	156	688	107	59	17	85%	4.7	15.6%	8.6%	7.0%	1.9%	4.10	3.91	+2.7
2017	24	MLB	Colorado Rockies	33	28	156	688	107	59	17	85%	4.7	15.6%	8.6%	7.0%	2.5%	4.10	4.28	+2.0
2018	25	MLB	Colorado Rockies	33	33	202	844	173	68	17	100%	6.1	20.5%	8.1%	12.4%	1.5%	2.85	3.24	+5.1
2018	25	MLB	Colorado Rockies	33	33	202	844	173	68	17	100%	6.1	20.5%	8.1%	12.4%	2.0%	2.85	3.49	+4.5
2019	26	MIX	2 levels	28	28	134	616	107	52	29	100%	4.8	16.8%	8.6%	8.3%	3.7%	7.19	4.78	+1.0
2019	26	MIX	2 levels	28	28	134	616	107	52	29	100%	4.8	17.4%	8.4%	8.9%	4.7%	7.19	5.48	-0.1
2020	27	MLB	Colorado Rockies	13	13	71	304	46	23	9	100%	5.4	15.1%	7.6%	7.6%	2.3%	4.33	4.03	+0.6
2020	27	MLB	Colorado Rockies	13	13	71	304	46	23	9	100%	5.4	15.1%	7.6%	7.6%	3.0%	4.33	4.43	+0.3
2021	28	MIX	2 levels	25	25	131	552	109	39	20	100%	5.2	20.4%	7.2%	13.2%	3.0%	4.13	3.92	+2.3
2021	28	MIX	2 levels	25	25	131	552	109	39	20	100%	5.2	19.7%	7.1%	12.7%	3.6%	4.13	4.32	+1.7
2022	29	MLB	Colorado Rockies	31	31	175	766	131	53	19	100%	5.6	17.1%	6.9%	10.2%	1.9%	4.53	3.58	+3.7
2022	29	MLB	Colorado Rockies	31	31	175	766	131	53	19	100%	5.6	17.1%	6.9%	10.2%	2.5%	4.53	3.92	+3.0
2023	30	MLB	Colorado Rockies	29	29	156	677	94	42	29	100%	5.4	13.9%	6.2%	7.7%	3.3%	5.03	4.52	+1.6
2023	30	MLB	Colorado Rockies	29	29	156	677	94	42	29	100%	5.4	13.9%	6.2%	7.7%	4.3%	5.03	5.12	+0.5
2024	31	MIX	3 levels	24	24	123	529	94	31	23	100%	5.1	17.3%	5.3%	12.0%	3.4%	5.04	4.20	+1.7
2024	31	MIX	3 levels	24	24	123	529	94	31	23	100%	5.1	17.8%	5.9%	11.9%	4.3%	5.04	4.75	+0.9
2025	32	MLB	Colorado Rockies	31	31	163	709	124	36	22	100%	5.2	17.5%	5.1%	12.4%	2.4%	4.98	3.57	+3.5
2025	32	MLB	Colorado Rockies	31	31	163	709	124	36	22	100%	5.2	17.5%	5.1%	12.4%	3.1%	4.98	4.00	+2.7
▸ 2026 Season
2026	33	MLB	Colorado Rockies	17	17	88	402	79	18	18	100%	5.2	19.7%	4.5%	15.2%	4.5%	7.36	4.47	+0.7
ROS	33	MLB	COL	10	10	59	248	45	12	9	100%	5.9	18.4%	4.9%	13.5%	3.5%	4.33	4.10	+0.3
ROS	33	MLB	COL	10	10	59	249	46	12	10	100%	5.9	18.4%	4.9%	13.5%	4.0%	4.62	4.39	+0.1
2026 TOT	33	MLB	COL	—	—	147	650	124	30	27	—	—	19.2%	4.6%	14.5%	4.1%	6.15	4.32	+1.9
2026 FULL	33	MLB	COL	—	—	147	619	124	30	28	—	—	20.1%	4.9%	15.2%	4.5%	6.27	4.50	+1.5
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	34	MLB	COL	21	21	125	529	91	28	20	100%	6.0	17.2%	5.4%	11.8%	3.8%	4.79	4.82	+0.8
2028	35	MLB	COL	19	19	112	475	77	28	20	100%	5.9	16.2%	5.9%	10.3%	4.2%	5.01	5.16	+0.3
2029	36	MLB	COL	17	17	100	420	64	27	19	100%	5.9	15.2%	6.5%	8.7%	4.6%	5.32	5.53	-0.2
2027	34	MLB	COL	21	21	125	528	91	28	23	100%	6.0	17.2%	5.4%	11.8%	4.4%	5.11	5.14	+0.4
2028	35	MLB	COL	19	19	112	473	77	28	23	100%	5.9	16.2%	5.9%	10.3%	4.8%	5.36	5.51	-0.1
2029	36	MLB	COL	17	17	100	422	64	28	22	100%	5.9	15.2%	6.5%	8.7%	5.3%	5.70	5.91	-0.6
▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections)
Career	—			321	316	1744	7539	1300	494	276	98%	5.4	17.2%	6.6%	10.7%	3.7%	4.85	4.49	+18.6
/ 200 IP	—			37	36	200	865	149	57	32	98%	5.4	17.2%	6.6%	10.7%	3.7%	4.85	4.49	+2.1
Career	—			299	294	1607	6958	1170	478	187	98%	5.4	16.8%	6.9%	10.0%	2.7%	4.67	4.03	+25.8
/ 200 IP	—			37	37	200	866	146	59	23	98%	5.4	16.8%	6.9%	10.0%	2.7%	4.67	4.03	+3.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Kyle Freeland (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.34	16.0%	5.3%	2.8%	—	5.14	16.3%	10.4%	337	+0.80	—	—	—
CC Sabathia L 2028 · 4.30 FIP	35	SP	4.30	18.9%	6.5%	3.6%	.311	3.96	20.1%	12.1%	481	-0.34	3.75	756	52
Eric Stults L 2028 · 4.25 FIP	35	SP	4.25	14.5%	5.9%	2.9%	.266	—	—	—	—	—	4.25	138	49
C.J. Wilson L 2027 · 3.77 FIP	34	SP	3.77	19.9%	8.0%	2.4%	.272	—	—	—	—	—	3.77	132	49
Jorge De La Rosa L 2027 · 3.68 FIP	34	SP	3.68	21.1%	9.8%	2.1%	.284	4.20	18.4%	8.9%	256	+0.52	3.68	405	48
Jon Lester L 2026 · 3.88 FIP	33	SP	3.88	23.6%	7.5%	3.3%	.306	4.18	19.9%	12.5%	414	+0.30	2.74	1,144	48
Tsuyoshi Wada L 2027 · 3.68 FIP	34	SP	3.68	16.8%	7.1%	2.0%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.68	119	47
Wei-Yin Chen L 2026 · 4.30 FIP	33	SP	4.30	19.4%	7.2%	3.5%	.279	4.87	20.5%	15.3%	68	+0.57	3.68	549	47
Mike Minor L 2026 · 4.28 FIP	33	SP	4.28	22.3%	6.1%	4.2%	.287	5.11	18.0%	10.9%	114	+0.83	2.42	807	47
J.A. Happ L 2026 · 3.84 FIP	33	SP	3.84	20.5%	7.5%	2.8%	.265	4.04	23.3%	16.2%	484	+0.20	3.28	1,053	47
Jonathan Sánchez L 2029 · 4.65 FIP	36	SP	4.65	18.1%	8.3%	3.7%	.339	—	—	—	—	—	4.65	109	46
Clayton Richard L 2026 · 4.05 FIP	33	SP	4.05	17.6%	6.2%	3.0%	.343	4.78	14.7%	5.9%	204	+0.73	3.58	574	45
Oscar Rivera L 2027 · 3.85 FIP	34	SP	3.85	14.2%	6.9%	2.0%	.298	4.45	10.4%	3.0%	129	+0.60	3.85	237	45
Felix Doubront L 2024 · 3.39 FIP	31	SP	3.39	17.6%	5.0%	2.1%	.354	—	—	—	—	—	3.39	291	44
Jorge Castillo L 2026 · 4.40 FIP	33	SP	4.40	16.8%	9.2%	2.8%	.292	4.68	12.4%	7.2%	186	+0.28	4.40	408	44
Roy Merritt L 2024 · 3.88 FIP	31	SP	3.88	16.2%	5.8%	2.6%	.339	—	—	—	—	—	3.88	129	44
Wade LeBlanc L 2026 · 4.28 FIP	33	SP	4.28	19.6%	5.9%	3.8%	.271	5.15	16.4%	10.2%	227	+0.87	3.53	609	44
Mauricio Lara L 2029 · 3.57 FIP	36	SP	3.57	13.9%	6.9%	1.4%	.310	3.70	12.1%	5.1%	220	+0.13	3.57	444	44
Cole Hamels L 2026 · 4.30 FIP	33	SP	4.30	17.1%	8.5%	2.9%	.244	3.94	23.3%	14.8%	332	-0.36	3.22	893	44
Drew Smyly L 2026 · 4.03 FIP	33	SP	4.03	20.4%	5.8%	3.5%	.271	4.52	22.3%	13.5%	201	+0.49	2.01	840	43
Yusei Kikuchi L 2026 · 3.25 FIP	33	SP	3.25	28.0%	6.0%	3.2%	.308	4.04	22.6%	13.3%	209	+0.79	3.25	1,019	42

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	Yrs	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	4	119	16.2%	5.7%	1.46	4.89
Jordan Zimmermann ('19)	5	142	17.2%	5.2%	1.44	5.06
Jeremy Hellickson ('19)	5	126	17.5%	6.6%	1.44	4.49
Ricky Nolasco ('17)	3	139	18.1%	6.5%	1.38	4.85
Cole Irvin ('24)	5	118	17.1%	5.6%	1.28	4.46
Iván Nova ('19)	5	158	16.3%	5.3%	1.38	4.40
Zach Plesac ('23)	5	93	18.4%	6.3%	1.39	4.20