Jordan Lyles
P
Oklahoma City Baseball Club
+0.4
WAR
Age 35
RHP
6'5" / 230 lbs
AAA
peak 0.4 · 2026
ERA5.46
FIP4.91
xFIP5.59
SIERA5.10
K%19.0%
BB%7.6%
K-BB%11.4%
IP155
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.4peak
2026
K†4040
FB Velo
p1091.2
Whiff%
p1320.1%
K%
p1016.0%
xwOBA vs
p270.339
SL+0.6 (14%)
CT (18%)
CH (19%)
SI (10%)
CU (12%)
FB (35%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 24 | MLB | Colorado Rockies | 10 | 10 | 49 | 212 | 30 | 18 | 2 | 14.2% | 8.5% | 0.9% | 5.14 | 3.49 | +0.8 |
| 2016 | 25 | MLB | Colorado Rockies | 48 | 13 | 103 | 472 | 61 | 44 | 9 | 12.2% | 9.5% | 1.8% | 5.66 | 4.27 | +1.2 |
| 2017 | 26 | MLB | San Diego Padres | 43 | 10 | 90 | 411 | 75 | 28 | 17 | 17.7% | 6.9% | 4.4% | 7.03 | 4.91 | +0.3 |
| 2018 | 27 | MLB | Milwaukee Brewers | 37 | 10 | 93 | 405 | 88 | 27 | 16 | 22.6% | 6.7% | 3.0% | 4.92 | 3.69 | +1.6 |
| 2019 | 28 | MLB | Milwaukee Brewers | 29 | 29 | 146 | 620 | 153 | 56 | 26 | 24.4% | 8.8% | 4.1% | 4.06 | 4.42 | +1.5 |
| 2020 | 29 | MLB | Texas Rangers | 12 | 9 | 58 | 266 | 36 | 23 | 12 | 13.5% | 8.6% | 4.9% | 7.02 | 5.72 | -0.5 |
| 2021 | 30 | MLB | Texas Rangers | 32 | 30 | 180 | 769 | 146 | 56 | 38 | 19.0% | 7.3% | 4.6% | 5.15 | 4.93 | +0.8 |
| 2022 | 31 | MLB | Baltimore Orioles | 32 | 32 | 179 | 774 | 144 | 52 | 26 | 18.6% | 6.7% | 3.5% | 4.42 | 4.32 | +2.0 |
| 2023 | 32 | MLB | Kansas City Royals | 31 | 31 | 178 | 748 | 120 | 45 | 39 | 16.0% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 6.28 | 5.26 | +0.1 |
| 2024 | 33 | MLB | Kansas City Royals | 10 | 4 | 20 | 89 | 15 | 7 | 3 | 15.1% | 7.5% | 5.3% | 4.87 | 5.69 | -0.2 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 35 | MLB | MIL | 26 | 26 | 144 | 607 | 107 | 46 | 23 | 17.6% | 7.6% | 3.8% | 5.52 | 5.03 | +0.4 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 36 | MLB | MIL | 23 | 23 | 125 | 528 | 89 | 41 | 21 | 16.9% | 7.8% | 3.9% | 5.32 | 5.19 | +0.2 |
| 2028 | 37 | MLB | MIL | 20 | 20 | 108 | 455 | 73 | 37 | 18 | 16.1% | 8.1% | 4.0% | 5.35 | 5.36 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 284 | 178 | 1096 | 4766 | 862 | 356 | 184 | 18.1% | 7.5% | 3.9% | 5.34 | 4.64 | +8.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 52 | 32 | 200 | 869 | 157 | 65 | 34 | 18.1% | 7.5% | 3.9% | 5.34 | 4.64 | +1.5 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Jordan Lyles (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.03 | 17.6% | 7.6% | 3.8% | — | 5.27 | 16.5% | 8.5% | 233 | +0.24 | — | — | — |
| Ryan Vogelsong R 2029 · 4.44 FIP | 38 | SP | 4.44 | 18.1% | 9.4% | 3.1% | .295 | 4.88 | 16.7% | 6.3% | 82 | +0.44 | 4.44 | 217 | 77 |
| Kyle Lohse R 2027 · 5.01 FIP | 36 | SP | 5.01 | 16.2% | 6.0% | 4.6% | .309 | 5.01 | 14.8% | 8.8% | 59 | +0.00 | 5.01 | 211 | 76 |
| Ubaldo Jiménez R 2024 · 5.00 FIP | 33 | SP | 5.00 | 21.5% | 9.0% | 4.7% | .325 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.63 | 469 | 75 |
| Jeremy Guthrie R 2027 · 5.35 FIP | 36 | SP | 5.35 | 12.7% | 6.5% | 4.5% | .309 | 4.87 | 11.6% | 3.0% | 87 | -0.48 | 4.87 | 235 | 74 |
| Tomoyuki Sugano R 2026 · 4.89 FIP | 35 | SP | 4.89 | 15.7% | 5.0% | 4.5% | .279 | 5.58 | 19.0% | 14.2% | 17 | +0.69 | 4.89 | 174 | 74 |
| Jarrett Grube R 2026 · 4.47 FIP | 35 | SP | 4.47 | 15.8% | 8.1% | 3.1% | .296 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.71 | 393 | 74 |
| Josh Lindblom R 2026 · 5.02 FIP | 35 | SP | 5.02 | 20.8% | 8.8% | 4.7% | .270 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.54 | 348 | 73 |
| Yoanner Negrin R 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 35 | SP | 3.89 | 17.5% | 8.1% | 2.3% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.15 | 485 | 71 |
| Aaron Harang R 2028 · 4.43 FIP | 37 | SP | 4.43 | 14.4% | 6.4% | 3.2% | .288 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.43 | 172 | 71 |
| Ricky Nolasco R 2025 · 4.67 FIP | 34 | SP | 4.67 | 18.2% | 7.0% | 4.0% | .307 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.21 | 425 | 71 |
| Yasutomo Kubo R 2029 · 3.94 FIP | 38 | SP | 3.94 | 20.4% | 4.7% | 3.6% | .327 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.94 | 152 | 69 |
| James Shields R 2026 · 5.12 FIP | 35 | SP | 5.12 | 20.1% | 9.3% | 4.6% | .271 | 4.83 | 17.7% | 8.7% | 205 | -0.29 | 4.12 | 720 | 67 |
| Marco Estrada R 2026 · 5.18 FIP | 35 | SP | 5.18 | 16.4% | 8.0% | 4.5% | .283 | 7.04 | 10.4% | 2.9% | 24 | +1.86 | 4.10 | 710 | 67 |
| Aníbal Sánchez R 2026 · 3.84 FIP | 35 | SP | 3.84 | 18.8% | 6.7% | 2.7% | .258 | 5.06 | 17.2% | 7.8% | 135 | +1.22 | 3.64 | 869 | 65 |
| Daniel McCutchen R 2024 · 4.81 FIP | 33 | SP | 4.81 | 10.8% | 5.9% | 3.4% | .353 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.32 | 287 | 65 |
| Chien-Ming Wang R 2026 · 4.26 FIP | 35 | SP | 4.26 | 7.6% | 6.1% | 1.9% | .354 | 4.56 | 13.0% | 5.2% | 53 | +0.30 | 4.26 | 183 | 63 |
| Colby Lewis R 2026 · 3.91 FIP | 35 | SP | 3.91 | 16.5% | 4.6% | 2.9% | .283 | 4.67 | 15.5% | 9.6% | 116 | +0.76 | 3.91 | 321 | 63 |
| Dan Haren R 2025 · 4.29 FIP | 34 | SP | 4.29 | 17.2% | 4.7% | 3.7% | .251 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.29 | 187 | 61 |
| Chris Smith R 2026 · 3.86 FIP | 35 | SP | 3.86 | 20.8% | 8.9% | 2.5% | .279 | 4.81 | 15.6% | 8.1% | 130 | +0.95 | 3.81 | 413 | 60 |
| Hisashi Iwakuma R 2026 · 4.21 FIP | 35 | SP | 4.21 | 17.6% | 5.1% | 3.5% | .307 | 6.12 | 12.5% | 3.1% | 31 | +1.91 | 3.86 | 360 | 59 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.