Jordan Lyles — OGILVIE

Jordan Lyles P Oklahoma City Baseball Club

Age 35 RHP 6'5" / 230 lbs AAA peak 0.6 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 12 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 127119vR 111

ERA5.09

FIP5.06

K%18.2%

BB%7.5%

K-BB%10.8%

ROS IP12

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 12 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4545

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p1091.2

Whiff%

p1320.1%

p1016.0%

xwOBA vs

p270.339

SL+0.6 (14%)

CT (18%)

CH (19%)

SI (10%)

CU (12%)

FB (35%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2015	24	MLB MLE	Colorado Rockies	10	10	49	212	30	18	2	100%	4.9	14.2%	8.5%	5.7%	0.8%	5.14	3.44	+0.9
2015	24	MLB RAW	Colorado Rockies	10	10	49	212	30	18	2	100%	4.9	14.2%	8.5%	5.7%	0.9%	5.14	3.51	+0.8
2016	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	48	13	103	472	61	44	9	27%	2.2	12.2%	9.5%	2.7%	1.7%	5.66	4.22	+0.4
2016	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	48	13	103	472	61	44	9	27%	2.2	12.9%	9.3%	3.6%	1.9%	5.66	4.33	+0.3
2017	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	43	10	90	411	75	28	17	23%	2.1	17.7%	6.9%	10.8%	4.0%	7.03	4.70	-0.2
2017	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	43	10	90	411	75	28	17	23%	2.1	18.2%	6.8%	11.4%	4.1%	7.03	4.83	-0.3
2018	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	37	10	93	405	88	27	16	27%	2.5	22.6%	6.7%	15.9%	3.1%	4.92	3.73	+0.9
2018	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	37	10	93	405	88	27	16	27%	2.5	21.7%	6.7%	15.1%	4.0%	4.92	4.31	+0.3
2019	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	29	146	620	153	56	26	100%	5.0	24.4%	8.8%	15.5%	4.0%	4.06	4.34	+1.0
2019	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	29	29	146	620	153	56	26	100%	5.0	24.7%	9.0%	15.6%	4.2%	4.06	4.47	+0.7
2020	29	MLB MLE	Texas Rangers	12	9	58	266	36	23	12	75%	4.8	13.5%	8.6%	4.9%	4.2%	7.02	5.36	-0.3
2020	29	MLB RAW	Texas Rangers	12	9	58	266	36	23	12	75%	4.8	13.5%	8.6%	4.9%	4.5%	7.02	5.75	-0.5
2021	30	MLB MLE	Texas Rangers	32	30	180	769	146	56	38	94%	5.6	19.0%	7.3%	11.7%	4.6%	5.15	4.94	-0.1
2021	30	MLB RAW	Texas Rangers	32	30	180	769	146	56	38	94%	5.6	19.0%	7.3%	11.7%	4.9%	5.15	5.16	-0.5
2022	31	MLB MLE	Baltimore Orioles	32	32	179	774	144	52	26	100%	5.6	18.6%	6.7%	11.9%	3.4%	4.42	4.24	+1.4
2022	31	MLB RAW	Baltimore Orioles	32	32	179	774	144	52	26	100%	5.6	18.6%	6.7%	11.9%	3.4%	4.42	4.25	+1.4
2023	32	MLB MLE	Kansas City Royals	31	31	178	748	120	45	39	100%	5.7	16.0%	6.0%	10.0%	5.6%	6.28	5.60	-1.4
2023	32	MLB MLE	Kansas City Royals	31	31	178	748	120	45	39	100%	5.7	16.0%	6.0%	10.0%	5.6%	6.28	5.60	-1.4
2023	32	MLB RAW	Kansas City Royals	31	31	178	748	120	45	39	100%	5.7	16.0%	6.0%	10.0%	5.2%	6.28	5.36	-0.9
2024	33	MIX MLE	2 levels	10	4	20	89	15	7	3	40%	2.0	14.2%	6.4%	7.8%	5.3%	4.87	5.60	-0.2
2024	33	MIX MLE	2 levels	10	4	20	89	15	7	3	40%	2.0	14.2%	6.4%	7.8%	5.3%	4.87	5.60	-0.2
2024	33	MIX RAW	2 levels	10	4	20	89	15	7	3	40%	2.0	16.9%	7.9%	9.0%	3.4%	4.87	4.58	-0.0
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			263	158	1005	4355	796	321	174	60%	3.8	18.3%	7.4%	10.9%	4.0%	5.29	4.72	+2.0
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	35	MLB	KC	2	2	12	51	9	4	2	100%	6.0	18.2%	7.5%	10.8%	4.0%	5.09	5.06	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	36	MLB MLE	KC	21	21	127	537	93	43	23	100%	6.1	17.2%	8.1%	9.2%	4.3%	5.30	5.43	-0.7
2028	37	MLB MLE	KC	18	18	111	469	76	41	22	100%	6.2	16.1%	8.7%	7.4%	4.8%	5.62	5.83	-1.1
2027	36	MLB CTX	KC	21	21	127	536	92	43	22	100%	6.0	17.2%	8.1%	9.2%	4.0%	5.12	5.25	-0.7
2028	37	MLB CTX	KC	18	18	111	469	76	41	21	100%	6.2	16.1%	8.7%	7.4%	4.4%	5.42	5.63	-1.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		302	197	1244	5362	964	405	216	65%	4.1	18.0%	7.6%	10.4%	4.0%	5.29	4.75	+2.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		49	32	200	862	155	65	35	65%	4.1	18.0%	7.6%	10.4%	4.0%	5.29	4.75	+0.3
Career	—	MLE		284	178	1096	4766	862	355	183	63%	3.9	18.1%	7.5%	10.6%	3.8%	5.34	4.63	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		52	32	200	869	157	65	33	63%	3.9	18.1%	7.5%	10.6%	3.8%	5.34	4.63	+0.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jordan Lyles (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.06	18.2%	7.5%	4.0%	—	5.62	16.7%	8.3%	238	+0.56	—	—	—
Kyle Lohse R 2015 · 4.77 FIP	36	SP-	4.77	16.2%	6.0%	4.2%	.309	4.97	14.8%	8.8%	59	+0.20	4.77	211	76
Ryan Vogelsong R 2015 · 4.45 FIP	38	SP-	4.45	18.1%	9.4%	3.1%	.295	4.79	16.7%	6.3%	82	+0.34	4.45	217	76
Jake Peavy R 2016 · 4.35 FIP	35	SP-	4.35	19.6%	6.7%	3.7%	.318	—	—	—	—	—	4.07	262	75
Mike Pelfrey R 2017 · 5.69 FIP	33	SP-	5.69	14.5%	10.6%	4.5%	.266	—	—	—	—	—	3.70	404	74
Ubaldo Jiménez R 2017 · 4.95 FIP	33	SP-	4.95	21.5%	9.0%	4.6%	.325	—	—	—	—	—	3.63	469	73
Matt Garza R 2017 · 4.57 FIP	33	SP	4.57	15.7%	8.1%	3.2%	.283	—	—	—	—	—	4.00	365	68
Jesse Estrada R 2019 · 4.34 FIP	35	SP-	4.34	14.4%	6.6%	2.9%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	3.80	257	67
Chris Young R 2015 · 4.69 FIP	36	SP-	4.69	16.6%	8.6%	3.5%	.209	6.33	21.1%	11.4%	119	+1.64	4.69	242	67
Jeremy Guthrie R 2015 · 5.44 FIP	36	SP-	5.44	12.7%	6.5%	4.7%	.309	4.85	11.6%	3.0%	87	-0.59	4.85	235	66
Josh Lindblom R 2022 · 5.07 FIP	35	SP	5.07	20.8%	8.8%	4.8%	.270	—	—	—	—	—	3.50	348	65
Frankie De La Cruz R 2019 · 4.38 FIP	35	SP-	4.38	16.2%	8.0%	3.0%	.322	—	—	—	—	—	3.77	240	63
Jerome Williams R 2016 · 5.81 FIP	34	SW	5.81	11.7%	6.1%	5.3%	.286	—	—	—	—	—	4.72	195	58
Ricky Nolasco R 2017 · 4.84 FIP	34	SP	4.84	18.2%	7.0%	4.4%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.22	425	58
Alfredo Simon R 2016 · 5.55 FIP	35	SP-	5.55	12.3%	9.6%	4.1%	.335	—	—	—	—	—	4.61	261	58
Brandon McCarthy R 2018 · 4.69 FIP	35	SP	4.69	19.2%	6.2%	4.4%	.332	—	—	—	—	—	3.09	248	57
Logan Ondrusek R 2019 · 6.18 FIP	34	SP-	6.18	16.6%	8.9%	6.1%	.326	4.34	19.2%	11.9%	43	-1.84	4.34	138	57
Scott Feldman R 2017 · 4.58 FIP	34	SP	4.58	19.7%	7.0%	4.1%	.292	—	—	—	—	—	3.92	297	56
Shaun Marcum R 2015 · 4.04 FIP	33	SP	4.04	17.8%	6.0%	3.1%	.281	—	—	—	—	—	4.04	123	56
Jarrett Grube R 2017 · 4.41 FIP	35	SP	4.41	15.8%	8.1%	3.0%	.296	—	—	—	—	—	3.75	393	56
Walter Silva R 2015 · 4.15 FIP	38	SP	4.15	14.8%	7.4%	2.5%	.311	3.91	10.4%	3.7%	209	-0.24	3.67	428	56

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.9	127	17.3%	8.0%	1.67	5.31
Dan Straily ('19)	2.7	136	20.0%	8.9%	1.72	4.54
Homer Bailey ('19)	1.9	96	18.5%	7.8%	1.34	5.56
Mike Foltynewicz ('21)	4.0	134	21.4%	7.7%	1.46	4.45
James Kaprielian ('23)	1.6	105	20.5%	9.6%	1.26	4.58
Dylan Bundy ('22)	4.5	130	22.0%	7.3%	1.61	4.75
Josiah Gray ('23)	1.9	126	22.6%	10.8%	1.88	4.64