Jordan Lyles

P Oklahoma City Baseball Club

Age 36 RHP 6'5" / 230 lbs AAA Svc 16.0 · Ctrl thru 2027 peak 0.5 · 2027

Overview

AAARPExt / FA-dealFA 2028

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2022	31	MLBBAL	32	32	179	4.42	4.25	18.6%	6.7%	2.4
2023	32	MLBKC	31	31	178	6.28	5.36	16.0%	6.0%	0.1
2024	33	MIX2 levels	10	4	20	4.87	4.58	16.9%	7.9%	-0.0	K 14.7% · BB 6.4% · FIP 5.56
2025	34	No MLB games played
2026	35	No MLB games played
2027PROJ	36	MLBKC	3	3	20	4.42	4.44	22.2%	9.0%	0.2
2028PROJ	37	MLBKC	17	17	101	4.53	4.70	21.1%	9.7%	0.6
2029PROJ	38	MLBKC	12	12	73	4.87	5.11	19.9%	10.4%	0.1

Last 3 seasons WAR 2.5 · Next 3 projected WAR 1.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2027Service16.000First FA2028

2027Ext / FA-deal$9M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2023

xwOBA vs27

FB Velo10

K%10

CompsJesse Estrada (age 35) · Austin Bibens-Dirkx (age 36) · Jarrett Grube (age 35)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 120112vR 103

ERA4.42

FIP4.44

K%22.2%

BB%9.0%

K-BB%13.1%

Proj IP142

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 142 IP

Statcast · Contract

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p1091.2

Whiff%

p1320.1%

p1016.0%

xwOBA vs

p270.339

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status FA

MLB Debut 2011

Service 16.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2027

First FA Year 2028

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Ext / FA-deal	$9M	+0.2	$0.9M	-$8M
Totals		$9M		$0.9M	-$8M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2011	20	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	20	15	94	415	67	25	14	75%	4.7	16.1%	6.0%	10.1%	3.5%	5.36	4.40	+1.1
2011	20	MLB RAW	Houston Astros	20	15	94	415	67	25	14	75%	4.7	16.1%	6.0%	10.1%	3.4%	5.36	4.41	+1.1
2012	21	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	25	25	141	628	99	38	20	100%	5.7	15.8%	6.1%	9.7%	3.3%	5.09	4.33	+1.8
2012	21	MLB RAW	Houston Astros	25	25	141	628	99	38	20	100%	5.7	15.8%	6.1%	9.7%	3.2%	5.09	4.35	+1.7
2013	22	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	27	25	142	642	93	48	17	93%	5.2	14.5%	7.5%	7.0%	2.7%	5.59	4.32	+1.8
2013	22	MLB RAW	Houston Astros	27	25	142	642	93	48	17	93%	5.2	14.5%	7.5%	7.0%	2.6%	5.59	4.36	+1.7
2014	23	MLB MLE	Colorado Rockies	22	22	127	546	90	45	12	100%	5.8	16.5%	8.2%	8.2%	1.9%	4.33	3.82	+2.4
2014	23	MLB RAW	Colorado Rockies	22	22	127	546	90	45	12	100%	5.8	16.5%	8.2%	8.2%	2.2%	4.33	3.98	+2.2
2015	24	MLB MLE	Colorado Rockies	10	10	49	212	30	18	2	100%	4.9	14.2%	8.5%	5.7%	0.8%	5.14	3.44	+1.2
2015	24	MLB RAW	Colorado Rockies	10	10	49	212	30	18	2	100%	4.9	14.2%	8.5%	5.7%	0.9%	5.14	3.51	+1.1
2016	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	48	13	103	472	61	44	9	27%	2.2	12.2%	9.5%	2.7%	1.7%	5.66	4.22	+0.4
2016	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	48	13	103	472	61	44	9	27%	2.2	12.9%	9.3%	3.6%	1.9%	5.66	4.33	+0.3
2017	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	43	10	90	411	75	28	17	23%	2.1	17.7%	6.9%	10.8%	4.0%	7.03	4.70	-0.2
2017	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	43	10	90	411	75	28	17	23%	2.1	18.2%	6.8%	11.4%	4.1%	7.03	4.83	-0.3
2018	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	37	10	93	405	88	27	16	27%	2.5	22.6%	6.7%	15.9%	3.1%	4.92	3.73	+0.9
2018	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	37	10	93	405	88	27	16	27%	2.5	21.7%	6.7%	15.1%	4.0%	4.92	4.31	+0.3
2019	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	29	146	620	153	56	26	100%	5.0	24.4%	8.8%	15.5%	4.0%	4.06	4.34	+1.8
2019	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	29	29	146	620	153	56	26	100%	5.0	24.7%	9.0%	15.6%	4.2%	4.06	4.47	+1.6
2020	29	MLB MLE	Texas Rangers	12	9	58	266	36	23	12	75%	4.8	13.5%	8.6%	4.9%	4.2%	7.02	5.36	+0.0
2020	29	MLB RAW	Texas Rangers	12	9	58	266	36	23	12	75%	4.8	13.5%	8.6%	4.9%	4.5%	7.02	5.75	-0.2
2021	30	MLB MLE	Texas Rangers	32	30	180	769	146	56	38	94%	5.6	19.0%	7.3%	11.7%	4.6%	5.15	4.94	+0.9
2021	30	MLB RAW	Texas Rangers	32	30	180	769	146	56	38	94%	5.6	19.0%	7.3%	11.7%	4.9%	5.15	5.16	+0.5
2022	31	MLB MLE	Baltimore Orioles	32	32	179	774	144	52	26	100%	5.6	18.6%	6.7%	11.9%	3.4%	4.42	4.24	+2.4
2022	31	MLB RAW	Baltimore Orioles	32	32	179	774	144	52	26	100%	5.6	18.6%	6.7%	11.9%	3.4%	4.42	4.25	+2.4
2023	32	MLB MLE	Kansas City Royals	31	31	178	748	120	45	39	100%	5.7	16.0%	6.0%	10.0%	5.6%	6.28	5.60	-0.4
2023	32	MLB RAW	Kansas City Royals	31	31	178	748	120	45	39	100%	5.7	16.0%	6.0%	10.0%	5.2%	6.28	5.36	+0.1
2024	33	MIX MLE	2 levels	10	4	20	89	15	7	3	40%	2.0	14.7%	6.4%	8.3%	5.3%	4.87	5.56	-0.2
2024	33	MIX MLE	2 levels	10	4	20	89	15	7	3	40%	2.0	14.7%	6.4%	8.3%	5.3%	4.87	5.56	-0.2
2024	33	MIX RAW	2 levels	10	4	20	89	15	7	3	40%	2.0	16.9%	7.9%	9.0%	3.4%	4.87	4.58	-0.0
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			357	245	1509	6586	1145	477	237	69%	4.2	17.4%	7.2%	10.1%	3.6%	5.22	4.57	+14.5
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	36	MLB	KC	3	3	20	84	19	8	3	100%	6.7	22.2%	9.0%	13.1%	3.1%	4.42	4.44	+0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	37	MLB MLE	KC	17	17	101	426	90	41	15	100%	5.9	21.1%	9.7%	11.4%	3.5%	4.67	4.84	+0.6
2029	38	MLB MLE	KC	12	12	73	309	62	32	12	100%	6.1	19.9%	10.4%	9.5%	3.9%	5.03	5.27	+0.1
2028	37	MLB CTX	KC	17	17	101	426	90	41	14	100%	5.9	21.1%	9.7%	11.4%	3.2%	4.53	4.70	+0.6
2029	38	MLB CTX	KC	12	12	73	308	61	32	11	100%	6.1	19.9%	10.4%	9.5%	3.6%	4.87	5.11	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		386	274	1683	7321	1296	550	262	71%	4.4	17.7%	7.5%	10.2%	3.6%	5.17	4.52	+17.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		46	33	200	870	154	65	31	71%	4.4	17.7%	7.5%	10.2%	3.6%	5.17	4.52	+2.0
Career	—	MLE		378	265	1600	6997	1211	511	246	70%	4.2	17.3%	7.3%	10.0%	3.5%	5.26	4.50	+15.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		47	33	200	875	151	64	31	70%	4.2	17.3%	7.3%	10.0%	3.5%	5.26	4.50	+1.8

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2024 AAAOklahoma City Baseball Club · 15 IPFIP 4.91 → 5.56 (+0.65)K% 17.1% → 14.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	17.14%	—	×0.860	14.74%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.14%	—	×0.900	6.43%
HR / BF /BF	4.29%	÷0.896	×1.100	5.26%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 79).

Result: FIP 4.91 → 5.56, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AAAIndianapolis Indians · 5 IPFIP 4.71 → 5.54 (+0.83)K% 33.3% → 29.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	33.33%	—	×0.880	29.33%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	14.29%	—	×1.050	15.00%
HR / BF /BF	4.76%	÷0.953	×1.100	5.50%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors — K ×0.88, BB ×1.05, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 91).

Result: FIP 4.71 → 5.54, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 AAAEl Paso Chihuahuas · 6 IPFIP 9.31 → 9.81 (+0.50)K% 11.8% → 10.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	11.76%	—	×0.880	10.35%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.88%	—	×1.050	6.18%
HR / BF /BF	11.76%	÷1.045	×1.100	12.39%

Result: FIP 9.31 → 9.81, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 AAAEl Paso Chihuahuas · 20 IPFIP 2.81 → 3.10 (+0.29)K% 23.0% → 20.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.99%	—	×0.880	20.23%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.05%	—	×1.050	8.45%
HR / BF /BF	1.15%	÷1.087	×1.100	1.16%

Result: FIP 2.81 → 3.10, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2016 AAAAlbuquerque Isotopes · 45 IPFIP 4.39 → 4.48 (+0.09)K% 14.6% → 12.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	14.57%	—	×0.880	12.82%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.05%	—	×1.050	9.50%
HR / BF /BF	2.51%	÷1.202	×1.100	2.30%

Result: FIP 4.39 → 4.48, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jordan Lyles (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	3.1%	—	5.02	20.6%	10.6%	174	+0.58	—	—	—
Jesse Estrada R 2019 · 4.34 FIP	35	SP-	4.34	14.4%	6.6%	2.9%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	3.80	257	67
Austin Bibens-Dirkx R 2021 · 4.20 FIP	36	SP-	4.20	15.8%	5.6%	3.1%	.333	—	—	—	—	—	3.97	567	66
Jarrett Grube R 2017 · 4.41 FIP	35	SP	4.41	15.8%	8.1%	3.0%	.296	—	—	—	—	—	3.75	393	64
Yasutomo Kubo R 2019 · 3.98 FIP	38	SP	3.98	20.4%	4.7%	3.6%	.327	—	—	—	—	—	3.98	152	62
Frankie De La Cruz R 2019 · 4.38 FIP	35	SP-	4.38	16.2%	8.0%	3.0%	.322	—	—	—	—	—	2.87	262	62
Chris Smith R 2017 · 5.08 FIP	36	SP-	5.08	15.6%	7.5%	4.3%	.286	—	—	—	—	—	3.79	477	60
Jorge Martinez R 2019 · 3.71 FIP	34	SP	3.71	16.3%	5.7%	2.3%	.348	—	—	—	—	—	3.53	214	60
David Buchanan R 2024 · 4.26 FIP	35	SP-	4.26	14.7%	6.5%	2.9%	.337	5.56	12.2%	4.1%	29	+1.30	3.88	560	59
Yoanner Negrin R 2019 · 3.87 FIP	35	SP	3.87	17.5%	8.1%	2.2%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	3.15	485	58
Walter Silva R 2015 · 4.15 FIP	38	SP	4.15	14.8%	7.4%	2.5%	.311	3.91	10.4%	3.7%	209	-0.24	3.67	453	57
Kenshin Kawakami R 2010 · 4.06 FIP	35	SP	4.06	15.1%	5.6%	2.8%	.293	—	—	—	—	—	3.97	244	56
Jose Oyervides R 2017 · 5.38 FIP	35	SP	5.38	18.0%	6.3%	5.5%	.254	5.66	16.3%	5.1%	115	+0.28	3.01	407	56
Pablo Ortega R 2015 · 4.52 FIP	38	SP	4.52	8.6%	7.3%	2.2%	.291	4.24	11.5%	6.0%	236	-0.28	4.01	375	49
Angel Castro R 2017 · 3.51 FIP	34	SP	3.51	14.5%	7.4%	1.3%	.332	—	—	—	—	—	3.51	292	47
Jonathan Castellanos R 2017 · 4.91 FIP	35	SP	4.91	8.4%	9.2%	2.5%	.314	5.24	11.0%	2.0%	67	+0.33	3.40	394	47
Francisco Rodriguez R 2019 · 5.18 FIP	36	SP	5.18	10.7%	9.3%	3.3%	.339	—	—	—	—	—	3.16	334	46
Juan Delgadillo R 2017 · 4.47 FIP	34	SP	4.47	10.9%	6.2%	2.7%	.311	—	—	—	—	—	4.47	143	43
Ivan Maldonado R 2016 · 5.41 FIP	36	SP	5.41	6.4%	9.7%	3.0%	.325	—	—	—	—	—	4.60	172	42
Logan Duran R 2019 · 3.66 FIP	37	SP-	3.66	15.5%	8.9%	1.4%	.427	—	—	—	—	—	3.42	187	42
Jon Leicester R 2015 · 3.76 FIP	36	SP	3.76	12.3%	5.9%	1.7%	.333	—	—	—	—	—	3.76	113	41

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 2,161 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 910 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	9.1	114	18.1%	7.8%	1.38	5.12
Bruce Chen ('15)	7.7	102	17.2%	8.2%	1.51	4.62
Lew Krausse ('61-'74, 0 WAR*)	6.4	128	17.0%*	8.7%*	1.31*	4.97*
Willie Blair ('90-'01, 1 WAR*)	6.4	106	16.4%*	7.2%*	1.32*	4.86*
Derek Holland ('21)	7.3	113	19.7%	8.4%	1.35	4.62
Ramon Ortiz ('13)	7.2	121	14.1%	7.9%	1.46	4.95
Neal Heaton ('82-'93, 6 WAR*)	7.5	126	14.6%*	8.0%*	1.23*	4.66*