Jordan Lyles
P
Oklahoma City Baseball Club
Age 35
RHP
6'5" / 230 lbs
AAA
peak 0.5 · 2026
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 154 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 131122vR 113
ERA5.10
FIP5.08
K%18.3%
BB%7.6%
K-BB%10.8%
ROS IP155
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 154 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p1091.2
Whiff%
p1320.1%
K%
p1016.0%
xwOBA vs
p270.339
SL+0.6 (14%)
CT (18%)
CH (19%)
SI (10%)
CU (12%)
FB (35%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 24 | MLB | Colorado Rockies | 10 | 10 | 49 | 212 | 30 | 18 | 2 | 100% | 4.9 | 14.2% | 8.5% | 5.7% | 0.7% | 5.14 | 3.38 | +0.7 |
| 2015 | 24 | MLB | Colorado Rockies | 10 | 10 | 49 | 212 | 30 | 18 | 2 | 100% | 4.9 | 14.2% | 8.5% | 5.7% | 0.9% | 5.14 | 3.51 | +0.6 |
| 2016 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 48 | 13 | 103 | 472 | 61 | 44 | 9 | 27% | 2.2 | 12.2% | 9.5% | 2.7% | 1.5% | 5.66 | 4.09 | +1.6 |
| 2016 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 48 | 13 | 103 | 472 | 61 | 44 | 9 | 27% | 2.2 | 12.9% | 9.3% | 3.6% | 1.9% | 5.66 | 4.33 | +1.3 |
| 2017 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 43 | 10 | 90 | 411 | 75 | 28 | 17 | 23% | 2.1 | 17.7% | 6.9% | 10.8% | 4.4% | 7.03 | 4.90 | +0.3 |
| 2017 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 43 | 10 | 90 | 411 | 75 | 28 | 17 | 23% | 2.1 | 18.2% | 6.8% | 11.4% | 4.1% | 7.03 | 4.83 | +0.4 |
| 2018 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 37 | 10 | 93 | 405 | 88 | 27 | 16 | 27% | 2.5 | 22.6% | 6.7% | 15.9% | 3.4% | 4.92 | 3.89 | +1.5 |
| 2018 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 37 | 10 | 93 | 405 | 88 | 27 | 16 | 27% | 2.5 | 21.7% | 6.7% | 15.1% | 4.0% | 4.92 | 4.31 | +1.0 |
| 2019 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 29 | 29 | 146 | 620 | 153 | 56 | 26 | 100% | 5.0 | 24.4% | 8.8% | 15.5% | 4.3% | 4.06 | 4.55 | +1.5 |
| 2019 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 29 | 29 | 146 | 620 | 153 | 56 | 26 | 100% | 5.0 | 24.7% | 9.0% | 15.6% | 4.2% | 4.06 | 4.47 | +1.6 |
| 2020 | 29 | MLB | Texas Rangers | 12 | 9 | 58 | 266 | 36 | 23 | 12 | 75% | 4.8 | 13.5% | 8.6% | 4.9% | 4.4% | 7.02 | 5.47 | -0.6 |
| 2020 | 29 | MLB | Texas Rangers | 12 | 9 | 58 | 266 | 36 | 23 | 12 | 75% | 4.8 | 13.5% | 8.6% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 7.02 | 5.75 | -0.8 |
| 2021 | 30 | MLB | Texas Rangers | 32 | 30 | 180 | 769 | 146 | 56 | 38 | 94% | 5.6 | 19.0% | 7.3% | 11.7% | 4.8% | 5.15 | 5.07 | +0.7 |
| 2021 | 30 | MLB | Texas Rangers | 32 | 30 | 180 | 769 | 146 | 56 | 38 | 94% | 5.6 | 19.0% | 7.3% | 11.7% | 4.9% | 5.15 | 5.16 | +0.5 |
| 2022 | 31 | MLB | Baltimore Orioles | 32 | 32 | 179 | 774 | 144 | 52 | 26 | 100% | 5.6 | 18.6% | 6.7% | 11.9% | 3.1% | 4.42 | 4.10 | +2.7 |
| 2022 | 31 | MLB | Baltimore Orioles | 32 | 32 | 179 | 774 | 144 | 52 | 26 | 100% | 5.6 | 18.6% | 6.7% | 11.9% | 3.4% | 4.42 | 4.25 | +2.4 |
| 2023 | 32 | MLB | Kansas City Royals | 31 | 31 | 178 | 748 | 120 | 45 | 39 | 100% | 5.7 | 16.0% | 6.0% | 10.0% | 5.6% | 6.28 | 5.57 | -0.3 |
| 2023 | 32 | MLB | Kansas City Royals | 31 | 31 | 178 | 748 | 120 | 45 | 39 | 100% | 5.7 | 16.0% | 6.0% | 10.0% | 5.2% | 6.28 | 5.36 | +0.1 |
| 2024 | 33 | MIX | 2 levels | 10 | 4 | 20 | 89 | 15 | 7 | 3 | 40% | 2.0 | 15.1% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 5.9% | 4.87 | 6.04 | -0.4 |
| 2024 | 33 | MIX | 2 levels | 10 | 4 | 20 | 89 | 15 | 7 | 3 | 40% | 2.0 | 16.9% | 7.9% | 9.0% | 3.4% | 4.87 | 4.58 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 35 | MLB | KC | 23 | 23 | 144 | 607 | 111 | 46 | 24 | 100% | 6.3 | 18.3% | 7.6% | 10.8% | 4.0% | 5.10 | 5.08 | +0.5 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 36 | MLB | KC | 21 | 21 | 127 | 537 | 93 | 44 | 23 | 100% | 6.1 | 17.3% | 8.2% | 9.1% | 4.4% | 5.31 | 5.45 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 37 | MLB | KC | 18 | 18 | 111 | 469 | 76 | 41 | 22 | 100% | 6.2 | 16.2% | 8.8% | 7.4% | 4.8% | 5.64 | 5.85 | -0.6 |
| 2027 | 36 | MLB | KC | 21 | 21 | 127 | 536 | 93 | 44 | 23 | 100% | 6.0 | 17.3% | 8.2% | 9.1% | 4.2% | 5.23 | 5.37 | +0.0 |
| 2028 | 37 | MLB | KC | 18 | 18 | 111 | 469 | 76 | 41 | 22 | 100% | 6.2 | 16.2% | 8.8% | 7.4% | 4.6% | 5.55 | 5.76 | -0.5 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 302 | 197 | 1244 | 5362 | 965 | 406 | 218 | 65% | 4.1 | 18.0% | 7.6% | 10.4% | 4.1% | 5.31 | 4.78 | +9.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 49 | 32 | 200 | 862 | 155 | 65 | 35 | 65% | 4.1 | 18.0% | 7.6% | 10.4% | 4.1% | 5.31 | 4.78 | +1.5 | ||
| Career | — | 284 | 178 | 1096 | 4766 | 862 | 356 | 187 | 63% | 3.9 | 18.1% | 7.5% | 10.6% | 3.9% | 5.34 | 4.67 | +9.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 52 | 32 | 200 | 869 | 157 | 65 | 34 | 63% | 3.9 | 18.1% | 7.5% | 10.6% | 3.9% | 5.34 | 4.67 | +1.7 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Jordan Lyles (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.08 | 18.3% | 7.6% | 4.0% | — | 5.64 | 16.8% | 8.3% | 238 | +0.56 | — | — | — |
| Ryan Vogelsong R 2029 · 4.46 FIP | 38 | SP- | 4.46 | 18.1% | 9.4% | 3.1% | .295 | 4.67 | 16.7% | 6.3% | 82 | +0.21 | 4.46 | 217 | 76 |
| Kyle Lohse R 2027 · 4.98 FIP | 36 | SP- | 4.98 | 16.2% | 6.0% | 4.5% | .309 | 5.53 | 14.8% | 8.8% | 59 | +0.55 | 4.98 | 211 | 75 |
| Ubaldo Jiménez R 2024 · 5.02 FIP | 33 | SP- | 5.02 | 21.5% | 9.0% | 4.7% | .325 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.67 | 469 | 70 |
| Mike Pelfrey R 2024 · 5.65 FIP | 33 | SP- | 5.65 | 14.5% | 10.6% | 4.4% | .266 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.70 | 404 | 70 |
| Jake Peavy R 2026 · 4.36 FIP | 35 | SP- | 4.36 | 19.6% | 6.7% | 3.8% | .318 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.09 | 262 | 70 |
| Jesse Estrada R 2026 · 4.91 FIP | 35 | SP- | 4.91 | 14.4% | 6.6% | 4.0% | .312 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.71 | 257 | 68 |
| Chris Young R 2027 · 4.67 FIP | 36 | SP- | 4.67 | 16.6% | 8.6% | 3.4% | .209 | 6.29 | 21.1% | 11.4% | 119 | +1.62 | 4.67 | 242 | 67 |
| Jeremy Guthrie R 2027 · 5.42 FIP | 36 | SP- | 5.42 | 12.7% | 6.5% | 4.7% | .309 | 5.00 | 11.6% | 3.0% | 87 | -0.42 | 5.00 | 235 | 66 |
| Jason Hammel R 2026 · 4.34 FIP | 35 | SW | 4.34 | 15.8% | 6.0% | 3.3% | .342 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.43 | 645 | 65 |
| Matt Garza R 2024 · 4.74 FIP | 33 | SP | 4.74 | 15.7% | 8.1% | 3.5% | .283 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.12 | 365 | 64 |
| Frankie De La Cruz R 2026 · 4.34 FIP | 35 | SP- | 4.34 | 16.2% | 8.0% | 2.9% | .322 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.70 | 240 | 63 |
| Josh Lindblom R 2026 · 5.22 FIP | 35 | SP | 5.22 | 20.8% | 8.8% | 5.0% | .270 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.66 | 348 | 62 |
| Chris Smith R 2026 · 4.08 FIP | 35 | SP- | 4.08 | 20.8% | 8.9% | 2.9% | .279 | 5.11 | 15.6% | 8.1% | 130 | +1.03 | 3.93 | 413 | 60 |
| David Buchanan R 2026 · 4.23 FIP | 35 | SP- | 4.23 | 15.1% | 7.6% | 2.6% | .337 | 5.96 | 12.5% | 3.1% | 29 | +1.73 | 4.23 | 443 | 58 |
| Tomoyuki Sugano R 2026 · 4.91 FIP | 35 | SP | 4.91 | 15.7% | 5.0% | 4.5% | .279 | 5.23 | 13.4% | 7.0% | 84 | +0.32 | 4.91 | 241 | 57 |
| Shaun Marcum R 2024 · 3.94 FIP | 33 | SP | 3.94 | 17.8% | 6.0% | 2.9% | .281 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.94 | 123 | 56 |
| Jarrett Grube R 2026 · 4.16 FIP | 35 | SP | 4.16 | 15.8% | 8.1% | 2.5% | .296 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.49 | 393 | 55 |
| Walter Silva R 2029 · 3.95 FIP | 38 | SP | 3.95 | 14.8% | 7.4% | 2.1% | .311 | 3.96 | 10.4% | 3.7% | 209 | +0.01 | 3.68 | 428 | 55 |
| Ricky Nolasco R 2025 · 4.98 FIP | 34 | SP | 4.98 | 18.2% | 7.0% | 4.6% | .307 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.21 | 425 | 54 |
| Jerome Williams R 2025 · 5.94 FIP | 34 | SW | 5.94 | 11.7% | 6.1% | 5.6% | .286 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.79 | 195 | 54 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 127 | 17.4% | 8.1% | 1.68 | 5.33 |
| Dan Straily ('19) | 4 | 136 | 20.0% | 8.9% | 1.72 | 4.54 |
| Matt Cain ('17) | 3 | 91 | 15.2% | 8.2% | 1.51 | 5.58 |
| Homer Bailey ('19) | 4 | 96 | 18.5% | 7.8% | 1.34 | 5.56 |
| Matt Garza ('17) | 3 | 122 | 15.5% | 8.5% | 1.26 | 5.10 |
| Ricky Nolasco ('17) | 3 | 139 | 18.1% | 6.5% | 1.38 | 4.85 |
| Jason Vargas ('19) | 4 | 116 | 18.5% | 8.2% | 1.38 | 4.57 |