Joshua Kuroda-Grauer
2B Las Vegas Aviators| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 21 | A+/AOAK | 113 | .344/.442/.365 | 0 | 5 | 106 | — | .312/.398/.333 |
| 2025 | 22 | AA/A+/INTL2 orgs | 614 | .301/.366/.384 | 2 | 34 | 78 | — | .252/.304/.309 |
| 2026 | 23 | AAA/AAOAK | 375 | .321/.368/.474 | 7 | 15 | 113 | — | .302/.339/.435 |
| 2026 | 23 | MLBOAK | 74 | .366/.392/.507 | 1 | 0 | 146 | 0.7 | |
| 2027PROJ45% MLB | 24 | MLBOAK | 70 | .289/.329/.407 | 1 | 2 | 100 | 0.2 | |
| 2028PROJ59% MLB | 25 | MLBOAK | 313 | .289/.331/.414 | 5 | 8 | 103 | 1.0 | |
| 2029PROJ65% MLB | 26 | MLBOAK | 384 | .288/.332/.417 | 6 | 10 | 104 | 1.3 |
Tools · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 21 | A+ | Lansing Lugnuts | — | 50 | 42 | 12 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 286 | 400 | 333 | 733 | 48 | 308 | 6 | 10 | 346 | 85 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 21 | A | Stockton Ports | — | 63 | 54 | 21 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 389 | 476 | 389 | 865 | 429 | 8 | 11 | 403 | 122 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2025 | 22 | AA | Midland RockHounds | — | 183 | 163 | 49 | 9 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 12 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 301 | 374 | 393 | 766 | 92 | 313 | 7 | 8 | 347 | 93 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A+ | Lansing Lugnuts | — | 366 | 334 | 98 | 21 | 1 | 0 | 26 | 37 | 5 | 26 | 6 | 293 | 353 | 362 | 716 | 69 | 330 | 10 | 7 | 326 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | INTL | Mesa Solar Sox | — | 65 | 58 | 20 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 7 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 345 | 415 | 483 | 898 | 138 | 392 | 11 | 8 | 401 | 157 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | MLB | Athletics | — | 74 | 71 | 26 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 366 | 392 | 507 | 899 | 141 | 417 | 14 | 3 | 399 | 146 | +4 | -0 | +0 | +2 | +2 | 0.7 |
| 2026 | 23 | AAA | Las Vegas Aviators | — | 225 | 202 | 70 | 13 | 3 | 1 | 17 | 16 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 347 | 405 | 455 | 861 | 109 | 367 | 7 | 8 | 381 | 130 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | AA | Midland RockHounds | — | 150 | 144 | 41 | 11 | 1 | 6 | 5 | 15 | 1 | 11 | 3 | 285 | 313 | 500 | 813 | 215 | 285 | 10 | 3 | 355 | 87 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MLB Career | — | — | 74 | 71 | 26 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 366 | 392 | 507 | 899 | 141 | 417 | 14 | 3 | 399 | 156 | +5 | -0 | +0 | +2 | +2 | 0.8 | ||
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 21 | A+ MLE | Lansing Lugnuts | — | 50 | 43 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 256 | 360 | 302 | 662 | 47 | 277 | 8 | 8 | 294 | 85 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 21 | A MLE | Stockton Ports | — | 63 | 56 | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 357 | 429 | 357 | 786 | 399 | 11 | 8 | 349 | 122 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2025 | 22 | AA MLE | Midland RockHounds | — | 183 | 167 | 47 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 15 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 281 | 341 | 359 | 700 | 78 | 294 | 8 | 5 | 305 | 93 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A+ MLE | Lansing Lugnuts | — | 366 | 342 | 81 | 14 | 1 | 0 | 18 | 48 | 5 | 26 | 6 | 237 | 285 | 284 | 569 | 47 | 273 | 13 | 5 | 251 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | MLB MLE | Athletics | — | 74 | 71 | 25 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 352 | 378 | 479 | 857 | 127 | 417 | 14 | 3 | 384 | 146 | +4 | -0 | +0 | +2 | +2 | 0.7 |
| 2026 | 23 | AAA MLE | Las Vegas Aviators | — | 225 | 207 | 70 | 12 | 3 | 1 | 12 | 19 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 338 | 383 | 440 | 822 | 101 | 361 | 8 | 5 | 360 | 130 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | AA MLE | Midland RockHounds | — | 150 | 145 | 36 | 9 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 18 | 1 | 11 | 3 | 248 | 273 | 428 | 701 | 179 | 257 | 12 | 3 | 297 | 87 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 21 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 113 | 99 | 31 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 11 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 313 | 398 | 333 | 732 | 20 | 352 | 10 | 8 | 325 | 106 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 21 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 113 | 96 | 33 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 8 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 344 | 442 | 365 | 807 | 21 | 375 | 7 | 11 | 378 | 106 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A+ MLE | 3 teams | — | 614 | 569 | 143 | 24 | 1 | 2 | 31 | 71 | 12 | 34 | 6 | 251 | 304 | 308 | 611 | 56 | 284 | 12 | 5 | 269 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A+ RAW | 3 teams | — | 614 | 555 | 167 | 36 | 2 | 2 | 45 | 56 | 12 | 34 | 6 | 301 | 366 | 384 | 750 | 83 | 331 | 9 | 7 | 340 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | AAA MLE | 3 teams | — | 449 | 423 | 132 | 27 | 4 | 7 | 18 | 47 | 5 | 15 | 5 | 312 | 348 | 444 | 792 | 132 | 336 | 10 | 4 | 343 | 118 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | AAA RAW | 3 teams | — | 449 | 417 | 137 | 31 | 4 | 8 | 24 | 41 | 5 | 15 | 5 | 329 | 372 | 480 | 852 | 151 | 348 | 9 | 5 | 375 | 118 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 21 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 113 | 98 | 31 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 11 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 316 | 398 | 337 | 735 | 20 | 345 | 10 | 8 | 325 | 106 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A+ MLE | 3 teams | — | 614 | 566 | 143 | 24 | 1 | 2 | 31 | 71 | 12 | 34 | 6 | 253 | 304 | 309 | 613 | 57 | 280 | 12 | 5 | 269 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | AAA MLE | 3 teams | — | 449 | 423 | 132 | 27 | 4 | 7 | 18 | 47 | 5 | 15 | 5 | 312 | 348 | 444 | 792 | 132 | 335 | 10 | 4 | 343 | 118 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 21 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 113 | 98 | 31 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 11 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 316 | 398 | 337 | 735 | 20 | 345 | 10 | 8 | 325 | 106 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A+ MLE | 3 teams | — | 614 | 566 | 143 | 24 | 1 | 2 | 31 | 71 | 12 | 34 | 6 | 253 | 304 | 309 | 613 | 57 | 280 | 12 | 5 | 269 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | AAA MLE | 3 teams | — | 449 | 423 | 132 | 27 | 4 | 7 | 18 | 47 | 5 | 15 | 5 | 312 | 348 | 444 | 792 | 132 | 335 | 10 | 4 | 343 | 118 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB MLE | OAK | 45% | 380 | 355 | 101 | 20 | 3 | 5 | 17 | 45 | 5 | 10 | 2 | 281 | 321 | 391 | 712 | 111 | 308 | 12 | 4 | 317 | 100 | +0 | +1 | +0 | +1 | +8 | 0.7 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB CTX | OAK | 45% | 70 | 66 | 19 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 289 | 329 | 407 | 736 | 117 | 318 | 11 | 4 | 326 | 100 | +0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | +2 | 0.2 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 25 | MLB MLE | OAK | 59% | 532 | 495 | 138 | 27 | 3 | 8 | 25 | 66 | 7 | 14 | 3 | 281 | 323 | 399 | 722 | 118 | 307 | 12 | 5 | 320 | 103 | +2 | +2 | +1 | +2 | +12 | 1.8 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB MLE | OAK | 65% | 589 | 548 | 154 | 30 | 4 | 10 | 29 | 76 | 7 | 15 | 4 | 279 | 324 | 402 | 726 | 123 | 307 | 13 | 5 | 322 | 104 | +3 | +1 | +1 | +2 | +13 | 2.0 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB MLE | OAK | 67% | 566 | 525 | 146 | 28 | 4 | 10 | 29 | 76 | 7 | 14 | 3 | 277 | 323 | 400 | 722 | 123 | 306 | 13 | 5 | 321 | 103 | +2 | +2 | +1 | +2 | +12 | 1.9 |
| 2031 | 28 | MLB MLE | OAK | 67% | 551 | 511 | 140 | 27 | 3 | 10 | 29 | 78 | 6 | 11 | 3 | 274 | 321 | 396 | 717 | 122 | 305 | 14 | 5 | 318 | 102 | +1 | +1 | -0 | +2 | +12 | 1.6 |
| 2032 | 29 | MLB MLE | OAK | 66% | 536 | 496 | 134 | 26 | 3 | 9 | 29 | 80 | 6 | 9 | 3 | 270 | 318 | 391 | 709 | 121 | 303 | 15 | 5 | 315 | 99 | -0 | +1 | -1 | +2 | +12 | 1.3 |
| 2033 | 30 | MLB MLE | OAK | 65% | 521 | 482 | 129 | 25 | 3 | 8 | 28 | 79 | 6 | 6 | 2 | 268 | 315 | 384 | 699 | 116 | 302 | 15 | 5 | 311 | 97 | -2 | +0 | -2 | +2 | +11 | 1.0 |
| 2034 | 31 | MLB MLE | OAK | 65% | 506 | 470 | 125 | 24 | 3 | 8 | 26 | 79 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 264 | 310 | 375 | 685 | 111 | 300 | 16 | 5 | 305 | 93 | -4 | -0 | -2 | +2 | +11 | 0.6 |
| 2035 | 32 | MLB MLE | OAK | 65% | 279 | 260 | 67 | 13 | 1 | 4 | 14 | 45 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 258 | 304 | 363 | 666 | 104 | 297 | 16 | 5 | 298 | 87 | -4 | -0 | -3 | +1 | +6 | -0.1 |
| 2036 | 33 | MLB MLE | OAK | 64% | 244 | 228 | 58 | 11 | 1 | 3 | 12 | 41 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 252 | 296 | 348 | 644 | 96 | 292 | 17 | 5 | 288 | 81 | -5 | +0 | -4 | +1 | +5 | -0.3 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB CTX | OAK | 59% | 313 | 291 | 85 | 18 | 2 | 5 | 15 | 39 | 4 | 8 | 2 | 289 | 331 | 414 | 745 | 125 | 318 | 12 | 5 | 330 | 103 | +1 | +1 | +0 | +1 | +7 | 1.0 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB CTX | OAK | 65% | 384 | 357 | 103 | 22 | 3 | 6 | 19 | 50 | 5 | 10 | 2 | 288 | 332 | 417 | 748 | 129 | 317 | 13 | 5 | 331 | 104 | +2 | +1 | +0 | +1 | +8 | 1.3 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB CTX | OAK | 67% | 376 | 350 | 100 | 21 | 3 | 6 | 19 | 51 | 4 | 9 | 2 | 285 | 330 | 414 | 745 | 129 | 316 | 14 | 5 | 330 | 103 | +1 | +1 | +0 | +1 | +8 | 1.3 |
| 2031 | 28 | MLB CTX | OAK | 67% | 370 | 344 | 97 | 21 | 2 | 6 | 19 | 52 | 4 | 8 | 2 | 282 | 328 | 410 | 739 | 128 | 315 | 14 | 5 | 327 | 102 | +1 | +1 | -0 | +1 | +8 | 1.1 |
| 2032 | 29 | MLB CTX | OAK | 66% | 354 | 328 | 91 | 19 | 2 | 6 | 19 | 53 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 278 | 326 | 405 | 731 | 127 | 314 | 15 | 5 | 324 | 99 | -0 | +0 | -1 | +1 | +8 | 0.9 |
| 2033 | 30 | MLB CTX | OAK | 65% | 340 | 315 | 86 | 18 | 2 | 5 | 18 | 52 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 276 | 322 | 398 | 720 | 122 | 312 | 15 | 5 | 320 | 97 | -1 | +0 | -1 | +1 | +7 | 0.7 |
| 2034 | 31 | MLB CTX | OAK | 65% | 328 | 305 | 83 | 17 | 2 | 5 | 17 | 51 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 272 | 317 | 388 | 706 | 117 | 310 | 16 | 5 | 314 | 93 | -3 | +0 | -1 | +1 | +7 | 0.4 |
| 2035 | 32 | MLB CTX | OAK | 65% | 180 | 167 | 44 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 29 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 266 | 311 | 376 | 687 | 110 | 306 | 16 | 5 | 306 | 87 | -3 | +0 | -2 | +1 | +4 | 0.0 |
| 2036 | 33 | MLB CTX | OAK | 64% | 157 | 147 | 39 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 26 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 260 | 303 | 361 | 664 | 101 | 302 | 17 | 5 | 296 | 81 | -4 | +0 | -3 | +1 | +3 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 2876 | 2675 | 754 | 160 | 18 | 44 | 145 | 413 | 32 | 49 | 13 | 282 | 326 | 404 | 731 | 123 | 318 | 14 | 5 | 324 | 97 | -1 | +5 | -6 | +12 | +62 | 7.3 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 605 | 170 | 36 | 4 | 10 | 33 | 93 | 7 | 11 | 3 | 281 | 326 | 403 | 729 | 122 | 316 | 14 | 5 | 324 | 97 | -0 | +1 | -1 | +3 | +14 | 1.7 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 5655 | 5251 | 1438 | 272 | 31 | 81 | 286 | 768 | 73 | 132 | 35 | 274 | 320 | 384 | 704 | 110 | 306 | 14 | 5 | 311 | 97 | -4 | +6 | -10 | +18 | +99 | 11.2 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 604 | 165 | 31 | 4 | 9 | 33 | 88 | 8 | 15 | 4 | 273 | 319 | 382 | 702 | 109 | 306 | 14 | 5 | 311 | 97 | -1 | +1 | -1 | +3 | +14 | 1.6 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 AAALas Vegas Aviators · 225 PAwOBA .376 → .360 (−16)K% 7.1% → 8.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 7.11% | ÷1.000 | ×1.200 | — | — | 8.53% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.56% | ÷1.000 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.050 | 5.47% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.33% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.050 | 1.32% |
| Singles /BIP | 28.49% | ÷1.000 | ×0.930 | ×1.027 | ×1.050 | 28.57% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.99% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | ×1.027 | ×1.050 | 6.25% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.61% | ÷1.000 | ×0.970 | ×1.027 | ×1.050 | 1.69% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.54% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.050 | 0.40% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.027.
Result: wOBA .376 → .360; ISO .109 → .102; BABIP .367 → .361. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2026 AAMidland RockHounds · 150 PAwOBA .345 → .297 (−47)K% 10.0% → 12.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 10.00% | ÷1.000 | ×1.220 | — | — | 12.20% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 3.33% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.027 | 2.40% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.67% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×1.027 | 0.60% |
| Singles /BIP | 17.83% | ÷1.000 | ×0.920 | ×0.992 | ×1.027 | 16.71% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.53% | ÷1.000 | ×0.840 | ×0.992 | ×1.027 | 7.30% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.78% | ÷1.000 | ×0.940 | ×0.992 | ×1.027 | 0.74% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.65% | ÷1.000 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.027 | 3.82% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.992.
Result: wOBA .345 → .297; ISO .215 → .179; BABIP .285 → .257. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 A+Lansing Lugnuts · 366 PAwOBA .317 → .251 (−66)K% 10.1% → 13.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 10.11% | ÷0.969 | ×1.270 | — | — | 13.25% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.10% | ÷1.048 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.012 | 4.87% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.37% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×1.012 | 1.09% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.59% | ÷1.078 | ×0.920 | ×1.003 | ×1.012 | 22.17% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.07% | ÷1.199 | ×0.810 | ×1.003 | ×1.012 | 4.85% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.34% | ÷1.150 | ×0.850 | ×1.003 | ×1.012 | 0.25% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.921 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 84, 1B 116, 2B 140, 3B 130, K 94, BB 110 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.003.
Result: wOBA .317 → .251; ISO .069 → .047; BABIP .330 → .273. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AAMidland RockHounds · 183 PAwOBA .340 → .305 (−35)K% 6.6% → 8.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 6.56% | ÷0.988 | ×1.220 | — | — | 8.10% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.65% | ÷1.078 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.042 | 5.18% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.73% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×1.042 | 2.48% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.17% | ÷1.012 | ×0.920 | ×1.030 | ×1.042 | 24.53% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.96% | ÷1.131 | ×0.840 | ×1.030 | ×1.042 | 4.75% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.940 | ×1.030 | ×1.042 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.32% | ÷1.043 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.042 | 1.06% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 109, 1B 102, 2B 126, 3B 130, K 98, BB 116 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 24.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.030.
Result: wOBA .340 → .305; ISO .092 → .075; BABIP .313 → .294. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AStockton Ports · 63 PAwOBA .393 → .349 (−44)K% 7.9% → 10.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 7.94% | ÷1.015 | ×1.360 | — | — | 10.63% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.11% | ÷1.021 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.015 | 7.62% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.17% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.015 | 2.51% |
| Singles /BIP | 42.86% | ÷1.004 | ×0.920 | — | ×1.015 | 39.87% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.979 | ×0.830 | — | ×1.015 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.910 | — | ×1.015 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.164 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.015 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 133, 1B 101, 2B 96, 3B 80, K 103, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .393 → .349; ISO .000 → .000; BABIP .429 → .399. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 A+Lansing Lugnuts · 50 PAwOBA .338 → .294 (−44)K% 6.0% → 7.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 6.00% | ÷0.974 | ×1.270 | — | — | 7.82% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.00% | ÷0.974 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.027 | 7.49% |
| HBP% /PA | 6.00% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×1.027 | 4.87% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.64% | ÷1.036 | ×0.920 | — | ×1.027 | 23.38% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.13% | ÷0.992 | ×0.810 | — | ×1.027 | 4.30% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.850 | — | ×1.027 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.867 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.027 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 73, 1B 107, 2B 98, 3B 130, K 95, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .338 → .294; ISO .048 → .041; BABIP .308 → .277. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .