L.J. Hoes
| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2014 | 24 | AAA/INTL2 orgs | 210 | .305/.372/.406 | 3 | 5 | 100 | — | .273/.342/.364 | |
| 2014 | 24 | MLBHOU | 136 | .172/.235/.287 | 3 | 0 | 41 | -1.2 | ||
| 2015 | 25 | AAACOL | 429 | .295/.386/.400 | 3 | 26 | 97 | — | .273/.344/.357 | |
| 2015 | 25 | MLBHOU | 16 | .267/.312/.267 | 0 | 0 | 68 | -0.5 | ||
| 2016 | 26 | AAABAL | 443 | .242/.320/.331 | 6 | 8 | 63 | — | .227/.281/.315 | |
| 2017 | 27 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
| 2018 | 28 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
| 2019 | 29 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
| 2020 | 30 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
| 2021 | 31 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
| 2022 | 32 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
| 2023 | 33 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
| 2024 | 34 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
| 2025 | 35 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
| 2026 | 36 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2008 | 18 | ROK | GCL Orioles | — | 191 | 159 | 49 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 30 | 22 | 0 | 10 | 0 | 308 | 418 | 390 | 808 | 82 | 350 | 12 | 16 | 367 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2009 | 19 | A | Delmarva Shorebirds | — | 465 | 431 | 112 | 19 | 0 | 2 | 23 | 80 | 3 | 20 | 5 | 260 | 302 | 318 | 620 | 58 | 312 | 17 | 5 | 278 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 20 | A+ | Frederick Keys | — | 413 | 353 | 98 | 19 | 2 | 3 | 53 | 70 | 3 | 10 | 8 | 278 | 377 | 368 | 745 | 91 | 337 | 17 | 13 | 339 | 84 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 21 | AA | Bowie Baysox | — | 393 | 344 | 105 | 17 | 1 | 6 | 43 | 56 | 0 | 16 | 7 | 305 | 382 | 413 | 795 | 108 | 347 | 14 | 11 | 354 | 116 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 21 | A+ | Frederick Keys | — | 173 | 158 | 38 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 25 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 241 | 298 | 342 | 640 | 101 | 267 | 14 | 6 | 288 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 22 | AAA | Norfolk Tides | — | 357 | 317 | 95 | 14 | 4 | 3 | 34 | 43 | 4 | 8 | 7 | 300 | 375 | 397 | 772 | 98 | 338 | 12 | 10 | 348 | 108 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 22 | AA | Bowie Baysox | — | 229 | 196 | 52 | 9 | 3 | 2 | 31 | 33 | 1 | 12 | 5 | 265 | 368 | 372 | 741 | 107 | 311 | 14 | 14 | 338 | 98 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 22 | INTL | Mesa Solar Sox | — | 77 | 70 | 18 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 14 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 257 | 325 | 286 | 610 | 29 | 321 | 18 | 9 | 285 | 79 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 23 | MLB | Houston Astros | — | 184 | 170 | 48 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 12 | 35 | 1 | 7 | 1 | 282 | 333 | 365 | 698 | 82 | 348 | 19 | 7 | 314 | 96 | -1 | +1 | -6 | -7 | +4 | -0.9 |
| 2013 | 23 | AAA | Norfolk Tides | — | 430 | 365 | 111 | 25 | 1 | 3 | 58 | 56 | 5 | 7 | 7 | 304 | 407 | 403 | 809 | 99 | 352 | 13 | 13 | 368 | 119 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 24 | MLB | Houston Astros | — | 136 | 122 | 21 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 31 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 172 | 235 | 287 | 522 | 115 | 198 | 23 | 7 | 231 | 41 | -10 | +0 | -2 | -4 | +3 | -1.2 |
| 2014 | 24 | AAA | Oklahoma City RedHawks | — | 148 | 128 | 38 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 16 | 30 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 297 | 384 | 391 | 774 | 94 | 371 | 20 | 11 | 349 | 92 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 24 | INTL | Leones del Caracas | — | 62 | 59 | 19 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 322 | 344 | 441 | 785 | 119 | 391 | 19 | 3 | 343 | 118 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 25 | MLB | Houston Astros | — | 16 | 15 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 267 | 312 | 267 | 579 | 333 | 19 | 6 | 270 | 68 | -1 | +0 | +1 | -5 | +0 | -0.5 | |
| 2015 | 25 | AAA | Fresno Grizzlies | — | 429 | 370 | 109 | 24 | 3 | 3 | 52 | 62 | 3 | 26 | 8 | 295 | 386 | 400 | 786 | 105 | 344 | 14 | 12 | 354 | 97 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 26 | AAA | Norfolk Tides | — | 443 | 396 | 96 | 13 | 2 | 6 | 43 | 58 | 2 | 8 | 8 | 242 | 320 | 331 | 651 | 88 | 269 | 13 | 10 | 297 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MLB Career | — | — | 336 | 307 | 73 | 12 | 2 | 4 | 23 | 69 | 1 | 7 | 1 | 238 | 293 | 329 | 622 | 91 | 290 | 21 | 7 | 278 | 75 | -10 | +1 | -7 | -15 | +7 | -2.5 | ||
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2008 | 18 | ROK MLE | GCL Orioles | — | 191 | 170 | 43 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 19 | 32 | 0 | 10 | 0 | 253 | 328 | 312 | 640 | 59 | 303 | 17 | 10 | 289 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2009 | 19 | A MLE | Delmarva Shorebirds | — | 465 | 439 | 108 | 17 | 0 | 2 | 15 | 107 | 3 | 20 | 5 | 246 | 276 | 298 | 574 | 52 | 308 | 23 | 3 | 249 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 20 | A+ MLE | Frederick Keys | — | 413 | 370 | 94 | 18 | 2 | 2 | 36 | 97 | 3 | 10 | 8 | 254 | 325 | 330 | 655 | 76 | 332 | 23 | 9 | 293 | 84 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 21 | AA MLE | Bowie Baysox | — | 393 | 358 | 113 | 16 | 1 | 5 | 29 | 66 | 0 | 16 | 7 | 316 | 367 | 408 | 775 | 92 | 368 | 17 | 7 | 339 | 116 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 21 | A+ MLE | Frederick Keys | — | 173 | 161 | 36 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 35 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 224 | 269 | 304 | 573 | 81 | 268 | 20 | 4 | 255 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 22 | AAA MLE | Norfolk Tides | — | 357 | 328 | 98 | 13 | 5 | 3 | 23 | 52 | 4 | 8 | 7 | 299 | 352 | 396 | 748 | 98 | 344 | 15 | 6 | 328 | 108 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 22 | AA MLE | Bowie Baysox | — | 229 | 205 | 55 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 22 | 40 | 1 | 12 | 5 | 268 | 342 | 380 | 723 | 112 | 321 | 17 | 10 | 313 | 98 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 23 | MLB MLE | Houston Astros | — | 184 | 170 | 48 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 12 | 35 | 1 | 7 | 1 | 282 | 333 | 365 | 698 | 82 | 348 | 19 | 7 | 311 | 96 | -1 | +1 | -6 | -7 | +4 | -0.9 |
| 2013 | 23 | AAA MLE | Norfolk Tides | — | 430 | 381 | 116 | 24 | 1 | 3 | 42 | 70 | 5 | 7 | 7 | 304 | 381 | 396 | 777 | 92 | 364 | 16 | 10 | 344 | 119 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 24 | MLB MLE | Houston Astros | — | 136 | 122 | 21 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 31 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 172 | 235 | 287 | 522 | 115 | 198 | 23 | 7 | 229 | 41 | -10 | +0 | -2 | -4 | +3 | -1.2 |
| 2014 | 24 | AAA MLE | Oklahoma City RedHawks | — | 148 | 132 | 36 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 39 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 273 | 342 | 364 | 706 | 91 | 358 | 26 | 8 | 304 | 92 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 25 | MLB MLE | Houston Astros | — | 16 | 15 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 267 | 312 | 267 | 579 | 333 | 19 | 6 | 269 | 68 | -1 | +0 | +1 | -5 | +0 | -0.5 | |
| 2015 | 25 | AAA MLE | Fresno Grizzlies | — | 429 | 384 | 105 | 20 | 3 | 2 | 38 | 79 | 3 | 26 | 8 | 273 | 344 | 357 | 700 | 83 | 330 | 18 | 9 | 311 | 97 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 26 | AAA MLE | Norfolk Tides | — | 443 | 410 | 93 | 11 | 2 | 7 | 29 | 71 | 2 | 8 | 8 | 227 | 281 | 315 | 596 | 88 | 255 | 16 | 7 | 262 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2008 | 18 | ROK MLE | GCL Orioles | — | 191 | 170 | 43 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 19 | 32 | 0 | 10 | 0 | 253 | 328 | 312 | 640 | 59 | 304 | 17 | 10 | 289 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2008 | 18 | ROK RAW | GCL Orioles | — | 191 | 159 | 49 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 30 | 22 | 0 | 10 | 0 | 308 | 418 | 390 | 808 | 82 | 350 | 12 | 16 | 367 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2009 | 19 | A MLE | Delmarva Shorebirds | — | 465 | 439 | 108 | 17 | 0 | 2 | 15 | 107 | 3 | 20 | 5 | 246 | 276 | 298 | 574 | 52 | 317 | 23 | 3 | 249 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2009 | 19 | A RAW | Delmarva Shorebirds | — | 465 | 431 | 112 | 19 | 0 | 2 | 23 | 80 | 3 | 20 | 5 | 260 | 302 | 318 | 620 | 58 | 312 | 17 | 5 | 278 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 20 | A+ MLE | Frederick Keys | — | 413 | 370 | 94 | 18 | 2 | 2 | 36 | 97 | 3 | 10 | 8 | 254 | 325 | 330 | 655 | 76 | 337 | 23 | 9 | 293 | 84 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 20 | A+ RAW | Frederick Keys | — | 413 | 353 | 98 | 19 | 2 | 3 | 53 | 70 | 3 | 10 | 8 | 278 | 377 | 368 | 745 | 91 | 337 | 17 | 13 | 339 | 84 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 21 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 566 | 519 | 150 | 23 | 1 | 7 | 36 | 101 | 3 | 20 | 9 | 289 | 339 | 378 | 716 | 89 | 345 | 18 | 6 | 313 | 98 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 21 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 566 | 502 | 143 | 24 | 1 | 9 | 53 | 81 | 3 | 20 | 9 | 285 | 357 | 390 | 747 | 106 | 322 | 14 | 9 | 334 | 98 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 22 | AAA MLE | 3 teams | — | 663 | 603 | 171 | 25 | 9 | 5 | 52 | 104 | 5 | 24 | 14 | 284 | 345 | 380 | 725 | 96 | 335 | 16 | 8 | 322 | 104 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 22 | AAA RAW | 3 teams | — | 663 | 583 | 165 | 25 | 7 | 5 | 72 | 90 | 5 | 24 | 14 | 283 | 367 | 376 | 742 | 93 | 327 | 14 | 11 | 337 | 104 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 23 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 614 | 551 | 164 | 31 | 3 | 4 | 54 | 105 | 6 | 14 | 8 | 298 | 367 | 387 | 753 | 89 | 360 | 17 | 9 | 334 | 112 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 23 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 614 | 535 | 159 | 32 | 3 | 4 | 70 | 91 | 6 | 14 | 8 | 297 | 385 | 391 | 775 | 93 | 351 | 15 | 11 | 352 | 112 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 24 | AAA MLE | 3 teams | — | 346 | 310 | 69 | 13 | 0 | 6 | 27 | 85 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 223 | 289 | 323 | 612 | 100 | 283 | 25 | 8 | 268 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 24 | AAA RAW | 3 teams | — | 346 | 309 | 78 | 15 | 0 | 6 | 28 | 73 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 252 | 319 | 359 | 678 | 107 | 308 | 21 | 8 | 302 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 25 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 445 | 399 | 109 | 20 | 3 | 2 | 39 | 82 | 3 | 26 | 8 | 273 | 342 | 353 | 696 | 80 | 336 | 18 | 9 | 309 | 96 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 25 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 445 | 385 | 113 | 24 | 3 | 3 | 53 | 65 | 3 | 26 | 8 | 294 | 383 | 395 | 778 | 101 | 344 | 15 | 12 | 351 | 96 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 26 | AAA MLE | Norfolk Tides | — | 443 | 410 | 93 | 11 | 2 | 7 | 29 | 71 | 2 | 8 | 8 | 227 | 281 | 315 | 596 | 88 | 257 | 16 | 7 | 262 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 26 | AAA RAW | Norfolk Tides | — | 443 | 396 | 96 | 13 | 2 | 6 | 43 | 58 | 2 | 8 | 8 | 242 | 320 | 331 | 651 | 88 | 269 | 13 | 10 | 297 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2008 | 18 | ROK MLE | GCL Orioles | — | 191 | 170 | 43 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 19 | 32 | 0 | 10 | 0 | 253 | 328 | 312 | 640 | 59 | 303 | 17 | 10 | 289 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2009 | 19 | A MLE | Delmarva Shorebirds | — | 465 | 444 | 108 | 17 | 0 | 2 | 15 | 107 | 3 | 20 | 5 | 243 | 276 | 295 | 571 | 52 | 308 | 23 | 3 | 249 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 20 | A+ MLE | Frederick Keys | — | 413 | 371 | 94 | 18 | 2 | 2 | 36 | 97 | 3 | 10 | 8 | 253 | 325 | 329 | 654 | 75 | 332 | 23 | 9 | 293 | 84 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 21 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 566 | 522 | 150 | 23 | 1 | 7 | 36 | 101 | 3 | 20 | 9 | 287 | 339 | 375 | 714 | 88 | 337 | 18 | 6 | 313 | 98 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 22 | AAA MLE | 3 teams | — | 663 | 601 | 171 | 25 | 9 | 5 | 52 | 104 | 5 | 24 | 14 | 285 | 345 | 381 | 726 | 97 | 335 | 16 | 8 | 322 | 104 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 23 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 614 | 549 | 164 | 31 | 3 | 4 | 54 | 105 | 6 | 14 | 8 | 299 | 367 | 388 | 755 | 89 | 359 | 17 | 9 | 334 | 112 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 24 | AAA MLE | 3 teams | — | 346 | 314 | 69 | 13 | 0 | 6 | 27 | 85 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 220 | 289 | 318 | 608 | 99 | 281 | 25 | 8 | 268 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 25 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 445 | 400 | 109 | 20 | 3 | 2 | 39 | 82 | 3 | 26 | 8 | 273 | 342 | 352 | 695 | 80 | 330 | 18 | 9 | 309 | 96 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 26 | AAA MLE | Norfolk Tides | — | 443 | 409 | 93 | 11 | 2 | 7 | 29 | 71 | 2 | 8 | 8 | 227 | 281 | 315 | 597 | 88 | 255 | 16 | 7 | 262 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 336 | 307 | 73 | 12 | 2 | 4 | 23 | 69 | 1 | 7 | 1 | 238 | 293 | 329 | 622 | 91 | 290 | 21 | 7 | 278 | 88 | -10 | +1 | -7 | -15 | +7 | -2.5 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 594 | 141 | 23 | 4 | 8 | 44 | 133 | 2 | 14 | 2 | 237 | 292 | 330 | 622 | 93 | 289 | 20 | 7 | 278 | 88 | -20 | +2 | -14 | -29 | +14 | -4.8 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 4146 | 3771 | 1001 | 161 | 22 | 36 | 307 | 784 | 27 | 137 | 65 | 265 | 325 | 348 | 674 | 83 | 324 | 19 | 7 | 298 | 88 | -10 | +1 | -7 | -15 | +7 | -2.5 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 591 | 157 | 25 | 3 | 6 | 48 | 123 | 4 | 21 | 10 | 266 | 325 | 349 | 674 | 83 | 324 | 19 | 7 | 298 | 88 | -20 | +2 | -14 | -29 | +14 | -4.8 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2016 AAANorfolk Tides · 443 PAwOBA .291 → .262 (−29)K% 13.1% → 16.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 13.09% | ÷0.983 | ×1.200 | — | — | 15.98% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.71% | ÷1.046 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.018 | 6.52% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.45% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.018 | 0.43% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.19% | ÷1.027 | ×0.930 | ×1.041 | ×1.018 | 21.29% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.85% | ÷1.021 | ×0.830 | ×1.041 | ×1.018 | 3.31% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.59% | ÷1.150 | ×0.970 | ×1.041 | ×1.018 | 0.53% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.78% | ÷0.776 | ×0.840 | — | ×1.018 | 1.96% |
Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 55, 1B 105, 2B 104, 3B 130, K 97, BB 109 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.041.
Result: wOBA .291 → .262; ISO .088 → .088; BABIP .269 → .255. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2015 AAAFresno Grizzlies · 429 PAwOBA .347 → .311 (−36)K% 14.5% → 18.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 14.45% | ÷1.020 | ×1.290 | — | — | 18.28% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.89% | ÷0.987 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.033 | 8.83% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.70% | — | ×0.980 | — | ×1.033 | 0.71% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.65% | ÷0.972 | ×0.900 | ×1.050 | ×1.033 | 25.76% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.79% | ÷1.051 | ×0.810 | ×1.050 | ×1.033 | 6.52% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.97% | ÷1.021 | ×0.810 | ×1.050 | ×1.033 | 0.84% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.97% | ÷1.060 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.033 | 0.74% |
Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 112, 1B 94, 2B 110, 3B 104, K 104, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .347 → .311; ISO .105 → .087; BABIP .344 → .330. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2014 AAAOklahoma City RedHawks · 148 PAwOBA .343 → .304 (−39)K% 20.3% → 26.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.27% | ÷0.994 | ×1.290 | — | — | 26.32% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.81% | ÷0.977 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.048 | 8.24% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.35% | — | ×0.980 | — | ×1.048 | 1.39% |
| Singles /BIP | 30.61% | ÷1.018 | ×0.900 | ×1.050 | ×1.048 | 29.79% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.12% | ÷0.935 | ×0.810 | ×1.050 | ×1.048 | 5.84% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.810 | ×1.050 | ×1.048 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.04% | ÷1.042 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.048 | 1.60% |
Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 108, 1B 104, 2B 87, 3B 130, K 99, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 27.2 → +4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .343 → .304; ISO .094 → .079; BABIP .371 → .358. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2013 AAANorfolk Tides · 430 PAwOBA .360 → .344 (−17)K% 13.0% → 16.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 13.02% | ÷0.967 | ×1.200 | — | — | 16.16% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.49% | ÷1.001 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.050 | 9.76% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.16% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.050 | 1.15% |
| Singles /BIP | 26.54% | ÷0.970 | ×0.930 | ×1.050 | ×1.050 | 28.05% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.09% | ÷0.956 | ×0.830 | ×1.050 | ×1.050 | 7.74% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.32% | ÷0.900 | ×0.970 | ×1.050 | ×1.050 | 0.38% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.97% | ÷1.006 | ×0.840 | — | ×1.050 | 0.85% |
Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 101, 1B 94, 2B 91, 3B 80, K 93, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .360 → .344; ISO .099 → .095; BABIP .352 → .364. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2012 AAANorfolk Tides · 357 PAwOBA .340 → .328 (−12)K% 12.0% → 14.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 12.04% | ÷0.999 | ×1.200 | — | — | 14.47% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.52% | ÷1.066 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.050 | 6.47% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.12% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.050 | 1.11% |
| Singles /BIP | 27.01% | ÷1.001 | ×0.930 | ×1.050 | ×1.050 | 27.66% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.11% | ÷0.984 | ×0.830 | ×1.050 | ×1.050 | 4.75% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.46% | ÷0.900 | ×0.970 | ×1.050 | ×1.050 | 1.73% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.09% | ÷0.870 | ×0.840 | — | ×1.050 | 1.11% |
Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 74, 1B 100, 2B 97, 3B 80, K 100, BB 113 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (5.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .340 → .328; ISO .098 → .101; BABIP .338 → .344. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2012 AABowie Baysox · 229 PAwOBA .328 → .313 (−15)K% 14.4% → 17.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 14.41% | ÷1.000 | ×1.220 | — | — | 17.59% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.10% | ÷0.978 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.042 | 9.77% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.44% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×1.042 | 0.39% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.31% | ÷1.027 | ×0.970 | ×1.050 | ×1.042 | 24.10% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.52% | ÷0.932 | ×0.860 | ×1.050 | ×1.042 | 5.58% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.84% | ÷0.900 | ×0.950 | ×1.050 | ×1.042 | 2.13% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.23% | ÷1.018 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.042 | 0.98% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 104, 1B 105, 2B 86, 3B 80, K 100, BB 96 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 24.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .328 → .313; ISO .107 → .108; BABIP .311 → .321. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2011 AABowie Baysox · 393 PAwOBA .348 → .339 (−9)K% 14.2% → 16.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 14.25% | ÷1.037 | ×1.220 | — | — | 16.76% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.94% | ÷1.068 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.050 | 7.53% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×1.050 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 28.12% | ÷0.979 | ×0.970 | ×1.050 | ×1.050 | 30.71% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.90% | ÷1.020 | ×0.860 | ×1.050 | ×1.050 | 5.49% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.35% | ÷0.975 | ×0.950 | ×1.050 | ×1.050 | 0.37% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.08% | ÷1.109 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.050 | 1.54% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 122, 1B 96, 2B 104, 3B 95, K 107, BB 114 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 24.8 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .348 → .339; ISO .108 → .094; BABIP .347 → .368. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2011 A+Frederick Keys · 173 PAwOBA .282 → .255 (−27)K% 14.5% → 20.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 14.45% | ÷1.027 | ×1.420 | — | — | 19.97% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.78% | ÷0.936 | ×0.630 | — | ×1.027 | 4.00% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.73% | — | ×0.860 | — | ×1.027 | 1.53% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.05% | ÷1.002 | ×0.940 | ×1.050 | ×1.027 | 21.30% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.26% | ÷0.904 | ×0.830 | ×1.050 | ×1.027 | 5.21% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.800 | ×1.050 | ×1.027 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.26% | ÷1.173 | ×0.900 | — | ×1.027 | 1.78% |
Factors used: league row CAR. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 135, 1B 100, 2B 81, 3B 80, K 105, BB 87 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .282 → .255; ISO .101 → .086; BABIP .267 → .268. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .