Tarik Skubal — OGILVIE

Tarik Skubal P Detroit Tigers

Age 29 LHP 6'3" / 240 lbs MLB Svc 5.0 · Ctrl thru 2026 peak 6.4 · 2026 ILActive (A) · expected back 2026-07-01

2026 ROS PROJECTION81 act + 75 ip · rates below = ROS only

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 6271vR 80

ERA2.60

FIP2.59

K%30.9%

BB%4.2%

K-BB%26.7%

ROS IP75

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 155 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—50

STUF6060

CTRL6060

CMD6060

K†7070

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p8196.7

Whiff%

p9031.5%

p9030.0%

xwOBA vs

p850.278

CH+3.4 (25%)

FB+1.8 (57%)

SL+1.0 (14%)

SI (19%)

CU (4%)

Contract CONFIRMED · hand-curated extension

Status Arb-3

MLB Debut 2020

Service 5.663 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2026

First FA Year 2027

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext	$13M	+1.9	$15M	+$3M
Totals		$13M		$15M	+$3M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2018	21	MIX	2 levels	5	1	10	39	16	2	0	20%	2.1	41.0%	5.1%	35.9%	0.0%	0.00	0.29	—
2018	21	MIX	2 levels	5	1	10	39	16	2	0	20%	2.1	41.0%	5.1%	35.9%	0.0%	0.00	0.58	—
2019	22	MIX	2 levels	24	24	123	490	179	37	7	100%	5.1	28.8%	8.5%	20.3%	1.7%	2.42	2.67	—
2019	22	MIX	2 levels	24	24	123	490	179	37	7	100%	5.1	36.5%	7.6%	29.0%	1.4%	2.42	1.83	—
2020	23	MLB	Detroit Tigers	8	7	32	134	37	11	9	88%	4.0	27.6%	8.2%	19.4%	7.3%	5.62	5.84	-0.5
2020	23	MLB	Detroit Tigers	8	7	32	134	37	11	9	88%	4.0	27.6%	8.2%	19.4%	6.7%	5.62	5.47	-0.3
2021	24	MLB	Detroit Tigers	31	29	149	634	164	47	35	94%	4.8	25.9%	7.4%	18.5%	6.0%	4.34	5.17	+0.4
2021	24	MLB	Detroit Tigers	31	29	149	634	164	47	35	94%	4.8	25.9%	7.4%	18.5%	5.5%	4.34	4.89	+0.9
2022	25	MLB	Detroit Tigers	21	21	118	477	117	32	9	100%	5.6	24.5%	6.7%	17.8%	2.1%	3.52	3.01	+3.3
2022	25	MLB	Detroit Tigers	21	21	118	477	117	32	9	100%	5.6	24.5%	6.7%	17.8%	1.9%	3.52	2.92	+3.4
2023	26	MIX	3 levels	20	20	95	366	122	17	5	100%	4.8	32.9%	4.5%	28.4%	1.4%	2.56	1.67	+4.0
2023	26	MIX	3 levels	20	20	95	366	122	17	5	100%	4.8	33.3%	4.6%	28.7%	1.4%	2.56	1.75	+3.9
2024	27	MLB	Detroit Tigers	31	31	192	753	228	35	15	100%	6.2	30.3%	4.6%	25.6%	2.2%	2.39	2.33	+6.9
2024	27	MLB	Detroit Tigers	31	31	192	753	228	35	15	100%	6.2	30.3%	4.6%	25.6%	2.0%	2.39	2.29	+7.0
2025	28	MLB	Detroit Tigers	31	31	195	748	241	33	18	100%	6.3	32.2%	4.4%	27.8%	2.6%	2.21	2.38	+6.9
2025	28	MLB	Detroit Tigers	31	31	195	748	241	33	18	100%	6.3	32.2%	4.4%	27.8%	2.4%	2.21	2.34	+7.0
▸ 2026 Season
2026	29	MLB	Detroit Tigers	14	14	81	314	95	11	10	100%	5.8	30.0%	3.7%	26.3%	3.4%	2.90	2.89	+2.0
ROS	29	MLB	DET	12	12	75	315	97	13	9	100%	6.2	30.9%	4.2%	26.7%	2.9%	2.60	2.59	+2.0
ROS	29	MLB	DET	12	12	75	317	98	13	9	100%	6.2	30.9%	4.2%	26.7%	2.7%	2.54	2.53	+2.1
2026 TOT	29	MLB	DET	—	—	155	629	192	24	19	—	—	30.6%	3.8%	26.7%	3.0%	2.76	2.75	+4.8
2026 FULL	29	MLB	DET	—	—	150	635	192	24	19	—	—	30.3%	3.8%	26.5%	2.9%	2.82	2.64	+4.9
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	30	MLB	DET	29	29	173	730	222	33	22	100%	6.0	30.4%	4.5%	26.0%	3.1%	3.07	3.15	+4.5
2028	31	MLB	DET	27	27	161	680	202	33	22	100%	6.0	29.7%	4.8%	24.9%	3.3%	3.26	3.38	+3.8
2029	32	MLB	DET	25	25	149	629	182	33	22	100%	6.0	28.9%	5.2%	23.7%	3.5%	3.49	3.64	+3.1
2030	33	MLB	DET	23	23	137	577	162	33	22	100%	5.9	28.1%	5.7%	22.4%	3.8%	3.75	3.92	+2.4
2031	34	MLB	DET	21	21	124	525	143	32	22	100%	5.9	27.2%	6.2%	21.0%	4.1%	4.03	4.22	+1.7
2032	35	MLB	DET	19	19	112	471	123	32	21	100%	5.9	26.2%	6.7%	19.5%	4.4%	4.35	4.56	+1.1
2033	36	MLB	DET	16	16	99	417	105	31	20	100%	6.2	25.2%	7.3%	17.8%	4.8%	4.70	4.93	+0.5
2027	30	MLB	DET	29	29	173	730	222	33	21	100%	6.0	30.4%	4.5%	26.0%	2.9%	3.00	3.08	+4.7
2028	31	MLB	DET	27	27	161	680	202	33	21	100%	6.0	29.7%	4.8%	24.9%	3.1%	3.18	3.30	+3.9
2029	32	MLB	DET	25	25	149	629	182	33	21	100%	6.0	28.9%	5.2%	23.7%	3.4%	3.41	3.56	+3.2
2030	33	MLB	DET	23	23	137	578	162	33	21	100%	6.0	28.1%	5.7%	22.4%	3.6%	3.66	3.83	+2.5
2031	34	MLB	DET	21	21	124	524	142	32	21	100%	5.9	27.2%	6.2%	21.0%	3.9%	3.93	4.12	+1.9
2032	35	MLB	DET	19	19	112	473	124	32	20	100%	5.9	26.2%	6.7%	19.5%	4.3%	4.25	4.46	+1.2
2033	36	MLB	DET	16	16	99	418	105	31	19	100%	6.2	25.2%	7.3%	17.8%	4.6%	4.59	4.82	+0.6
▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections)
Career	—			322	319	1871	7698	2214	422	254	99%	5.8	28.8%	5.5%	23.3%	3.3%	3.33	3.17	+48.7
/ 200 IP	—			34	34	200	823	237	45	27	99%	5.8	28.8%	5.5%	23.3%	3.3%	3.33	3.17	+5.2
Career	—			185	178	995	3955	1159	230	118	96%	5.4	29.3%	5.8%	23.5%	3.0%	2.92	3.00	+27.9
/ 200 IP	—			37	36	200	795	233	46	24	96%	5.4	29.3%	5.8%	23.5%	3.0%	2.92	3.00	+5.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Tarik Skubal (OGILVIE)	—	—	2.73	32.3%	4.6%	2.5%	—	3.38	29.7%	24.9%	483	+0.65	—	—	—
James Paxton L 2026 · 3.26 FIP	29	SP	3.26	32.2%	6.5%	3.8%	.298	3.61	29.3%	20.7%	171	+0.35	2.48	924	42
Shota Imanaga L 2027 · 3.58 FIP	30	SP	3.58	25.1%	4.0%	3.8%	.262	4.76	22.1%	16.8%	253	+1.18	3.58	426	41
Patrick Corbin L 2026 · 2.20 FIP	29	SP	2.20	30.7%	5.6%	1.8%	.298	4.13	23.6%	16.0%	439	+1.93	2.20	1,825	40
David Price L 2026 · 2.65 FIP	29	SP	2.65	25.3%	5.1%	1.9%	.288	3.56	24.2%	18.0%	481	+0.91	2.65	922	38
Clayton Kershaw L 2026 · 3.11 FIP	29	SP	3.11	29.7%	4.4%	3.6%	.267	3.51	25.8%	20.8%	398	+0.40	1.52	1,477	36
Francisco Liriano L 2028 · 3.07 FIP	31	SP	3.07	26.5%	8.9%	2.0%	.289	4.65	20.7%	8.8%	394	+1.58	3.07	650	36
Cole Hamels L 2028 · 3.22 FIP	31	SP	3.22	24.4%	6.7%	2.4%	.288	4.02	21.7%	13.2%	539	+0.80	3.22	893	35
Jon Lester L 2028 · 2.74 FIP	31	SP	2.74	25.0%	5.7%	1.9%	.299	3.75	22.7%	15.3%	565	+1.01	2.74	1,144	35
Madison Bumgarner L 2026 · 3.79 FIP	29	SP	3.79	24.1%	4.7%	3.9%	.282	4.58	17.7%	11.3%	347	+0.79	2.81	1,257	32
J.A. Happ L 2029 · 3.28 FIP	32	SP	3.28	21.1%	5.7%	2.2%	.308	3.72	23.1%	15.9%	518	+0.44	3.28	1,053	29
Scott Kazmir L 2028 · 3.72 FIP	31	SP	3.72	20.3%	7.7%	2.5%	.268	4.46	21.6%	12.9%	148	+0.74	3.72	395	29
Juan Pablo Oramas L 2026 · 3.84 FIP	29	SP	3.84	21.2%	8.0%	2.8%	.337	—	—	—	—	—	3.37	440	24
Gio Gonzalez L 2026 · 2.90 FIP	29	SP	2.90	22.3%	8.7%	1.1%	.336	3.75	21.7%	12.8%	549	+0.85	2.90	864	23
Jaime García L 2026 · 2.89 FIP	29	SP	2.89	19.0%	5.9%	1.2%	.265	4.24	19.7%	11.0%	411	+1.35	2.89	540	22
Max Scherzer R 2028 · 2.61 FIP	31	SP	2.61	30.7%	3.6%	3.0%	.264	2.68	33.4%	27.4%	650	+0.07	2.13	1,761	20
Jimmy Nelson R 2025 · 2.87 FIP	28	SP	2.87	27.3%	6.5%	2.3%	.333	4.37	26.9%	12.3%	62	+1.50	1.32	650	19
Dallas Keuchel L 2026 · 3.64 FIP	29	SP	3.64	21.4%	8.0%	2.4%	.254	3.67	17.7%	10.7%	381	+0.03	2.77	1,377	19
Eric Jokisch L 2026 · 3.80 FIP	29	SP	3.80	16.3%	7.4%	2.1%	.323	—	—	—	—	—	3.80	412	19
Wade LeBlanc L 2028 · 3.53 FIP	31	SP-	3.53	20.3%	5.3%	2.7%	.289	4.64	18.7%	13.0%	351	+1.11	3.53	609	18
Ryan Bollinger L 2024 · 3.53 FIP	27	SP	3.53	17.1%	7.5%	1.7%	.290	—	—	—	—	—	3.53	112	18

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	Yrs	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	8	142	28.9%	5.4%	1.38	3.55
Corey Kluber ('23)	8	149	26.1%	5.4%	1.05	3.48
Kenta Maeda ('24)	8	122	25.9%	6.9%	1.30	4.17
Joe Musgrove ('24)	9	117	23.9%	6.0%	1.13	3.73
Madison Bumgarner ('22) AS×4SS	8	155	22.7%	5.9%	1.23	3.70
Stephen Strasburg ('21)	6	135	29.4%	6.8%	0.98	3.32
Masahiro Tanaka ('20)	6	153	22.6%	5.0%	1.41	3.88