Tarik Skubal — OGILVIE

Tarik Skubal P Los Angeles Dodgers

Age 29 LHP 6'3" / 240 lbs MLB Svc 5.0 · Ctrl thru 2026 peak 6.6 · 2026 ILActive (A) · expected back 2026-07-01

2026 ROS PROJECTION145 act + 16 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 6270vR 78

ERA2.44

FIP2.41

K%30.5%

BB%4.5%

K-BB%26.1%

ROS IP16

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 160 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—50

STUF6060

CTRL6060

CMD6060

K†7070

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p8296.8

Whiff%

p8831.3%

p9029.9%

xwOBA vs

p900.270

CH+3.4 (26%)

FB+1.8 (55%)

SL+1.0 (14%)

SI (18%)

CU (5%)

Contract CONFIRMED · hand-curated extension

Status Arb-3

MLB Debut 2020

Service 5.663 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2026

First FA Year 2027

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext	$3M	+0.4	$2M	-$0.9M
Totals		$3M		$2M	-$0.9M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2018	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	5	1	10	39	16	2	0	20%	2.1	41.0%	5.1%	35.9%	0.0%	0.00	0.29	—
2018	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	5	1	10	39	16	2	0	20%	2.1	41.0%	5.1%	35.9%	0.0%	0.00	0.58	—
2019	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	24	123	490	179	37	7	100%	5.1	28.8%	8.5%	20.3%	1.7%	2.42	2.68	—
2019	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	24	123	490	179	37	7	100%	5.1	36.5%	7.6%	29.0%	1.4%	2.42	1.83	—
2020	23	MLB MLE	Detroit Tigers	8	7	32	134	37	11	9	88%	4.0	27.6%	8.2%	19.4%	7.0%	5.62	5.66	-0.3
2020	23	MLB RAW	Detroit Tigers	8	7	32	134	37	11	9	88%	4.0	27.6%	8.2%	19.4%	6.7%	5.62	5.47	-0.2
2021	24	MLB MLE	Detroit Tigers	31	29	149	634	164	47	35	94%	4.8	25.9%	7.4%	18.5%	5.8%	4.34	5.02	-0.2
2021	24	MLB RAW	Detroit Tigers	31	29	149	634	164	47	35	94%	4.8	25.9%	7.4%	18.5%	5.5%	4.34	4.89	+0.0
2022	25	MLB MLE	Detroit Tigers	21	21	118	477	117	32	9	100%	5.6	24.5%	6.7%	17.8%	2.0%	3.52	2.96	+2.9
2022	25	MLB RAW	Detroit Tigers	21	21	118	477	117	32	9	100%	5.6	24.5%	6.7%	17.8%	1.9%	3.52	2.92	+2.9
2023	26	MIX MLE	3 levels	20	20	95	366	122	17	5	100%	4.8	32.9%	4.5%	28.4%	1.3%	2.56	1.63	+4.1
2023	26	MIX MLE	3 levels	20	20	95	366	122	17	5	100%	4.8	32.9%	4.5%	28.4%	1.3%	2.56	1.63	+4.1
2023	26	MIX RAW	3 levels	20	20	95	366	122	17	5	100%	4.8	33.3%	4.6%	28.7%	1.4%	2.56	1.75	+3.9
2024	27	MLB MLE	Detroit Tigers	31	31	192	753	228	35	15	100%	6.2	30.3%	4.6%	25.6%	2.1%	2.39	2.27	+6.6
2024	27	MLB MLE	Detroit Tigers	31	31	192	753	228	35	15	100%	6.2	30.3%	4.6%	25.6%	2.1%	2.39	2.27	+6.6
2024	27	MLB RAW	Detroit Tigers	31	31	192	753	228	35	15	100%	6.2	30.3%	4.6%	25.6%	2.0%	2.39	2.29	+6.6
2025	28	MLB MLE	Detroit Tigers	31	31	195	748	241	33	18	100%	6.3	32.2%	4.4%	27.8%	2.5%	2.21	2.32	+6.6
2025	28	MLB MLE	Detroit Tigers	31	31	195	748	241	33	18	100%	6.3	32.2%	4.4%	27.8%	2.5%	2.21	2.32	+6.6
2025	28	MLB RAW	Detroit Tigers	31	31	195	748	241	33	18	100%	6.3	32.2%	4.4%	27.8%	2.4%	2.21	2.34	+6.6
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			160	157	906	3604	1053	196	103	98%	5.7	29.2%	5.4%	23.8%	2.9%	3.04	2.90	+22.8
▸ 2026 season
YTD	29	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Dodgers	24	24	145	565	170	24	13	100%	6.0	29.9%	4.4%	25.5%	2.3%	2.74	2.38	+4.8
YTD	29	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Dodgers	24	24	145	565	170	24	13	100%	6.0	29.9%	4.4%	25.5%	2.3%	2.74	2.38	+4.8
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	29	A+ RAW	LAD	1	1	5	17	6	0	0	100%	5.0	35.3%	0.0%	35.3%	0.0%	0.00	0.12	—
2026	29	MLB RAW	LAD	23	23	140	548	164	24	13	100%	6.1	29.9%	4.4%	25.5%	2.4%	2.84	2.43	+4.5
SO FAR	29	MLB RAW	LAD	23	23	140	548	164	24	13	100%	6.1	29.9%	4.4%	25.5%	2.4%	2.84	2.43	+4.5
ROS	29	MLB MLE	LAD	3	3	16	67	20	3	2	100%	5.3	30.5%	4.5%	26.1%	2.4%	2.44	2.41	+0.5
ROS	29	MLB CTX	LAD	3	3	16	68	21	3	2	100%	5.3	30.5%	4.5%	26.1%	2.5%	2.50	2.47	+0.5
2026 TOT	29	MLB MLE	LAD	—	—	160	632	190	27	15	—	—	30.1%	4.3%	25.9%	2.3%	2.71	2.38	+5.3
FULL	29	MLB A+C	LAD	—	—	155	656	190	27	15	—	—	29.0%	4.1%	24.9%	2.2%	2.80	2.40	+5.1
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	30	MLB MLE	LAD	29	29	173	730	219	35	19	100%	6.0	30.1%	4.8%	25.3%	2.6%	2.91	2.98	+4.2
2028	31	MLB MLE	LAD	27	27	161	680	200	35	19	100%	6.0	29.3%	5.1%	24.2%	2.8%	3.09	3.21	+3.4
2029	32	MLB MLE	LAD	25	25	149	629	179	35	19	100%	6.0	28.5%	5.5%	23.0%	3.1%	3.31	3.46	+2.6
2030	33	MLB MLE	LAD	23	23	137	577	160	34	19	100%	5.9	27.7%	6.0%	21.7%	3.4%	3.57	3.74	+1.9
2031	34	MLB MLE	LAD	21	21	124	525	141	34	19	100%	5.9	26.8%	6.5%	20.3%	3.7%	3.86	4.05	+1.3
2032	35	MLB MLE	LAD	19	19	112	471	122	33	19	100%	5.9	25.8%	7.0%	18.8%	4.0%	4.17	4.38	+0.7
2033	36	MLB MLE	LAD	16	16	99	417	103	32	18	100%	6.2	24.8%	7.6%	17.2%	4.4%	4.52	4.75	+0.2
2027	30	MLB CTX	LAD	29	29	173	730	220	35	20	100%	6.0	30.1%	4.8%	25.3%	2.7%	2.97	3.04	+4.2
2028	31	MLB CTX	LAD	27	27	161	680	199	35	20	100%	6.0	29.3%	5.1%	24.2%	3.0%	3.16	3.28	+3.4
2029	32	MLB CTX	LAD	25	25	149	629	179	35	20	100%	6.0	28.5%	5.5%	23.0%	3.2%	3.38	3.53	+2.6
2030	33	MLB CTX	LAD	23	23	137	578	160	34	20	100%	6.0	27.7%	6.0%	21.7%	3.5%	3.65	3.82	+1.9
2031	34	MLB CTX	LAD	21	21	124	524	140	34	20	100%	5.9	26.8%	6.5%	20.3%	3.8%	3.95	4.14	+1.3
2032	35	MLB CTX	LAD	19	19	112	473	122	33	20	100%	5.9	25.8%	7.0%	18.8%	4.2%	4.26	4.47	+0.7
2033	36	MLB CTX	LAD	16	16	99	418	104	32	19	100%	6.2	24.8%	7.6%	17.2%	4.6%	4.62	4.85	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		322	319	1877	7700	2197	436	244	99%	5.8	28.5%	5.7%	22.9%	3.2%	3.33	3.15	+41.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	821	234	46	26	99%	5.8	28.5%	5.7%	22.9%	3.2%	3.33	3.15	+4.4
Career	—	MLE		195	188	1059	4206	1234	243	116	96%	5.4	29.3%	5.8%	23.6%	2.8%	2.90	2.87	+37.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		37	36	200	794	233	46	22	96%	5.4	29.3%	5.8%	23.6%	2.8%	2.90	2.87	+3.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Tarik Skubal (OGILVIE)	—	—	2.68	32.3%	4.6%	2.5%	—	3.20	29.4%	24.2%	483	+0.52	—	—	—
Patrick Corbin L 2018 · 2.30 FIP	29	SP	2.30	30.7%	5.6%	2.0%	.298	4.13	23.6%	16.0%	439	+1.83	2.30	1,829	68
James Paxton L 2018 · 3.21 FIP	29	SP	3.21	32.2%	6.5%	3.7%	.298	3.63	29.3%	20.7%	171	+0.42	2.46	924	65
Chris Sale L 2018 · 1.56 FIP	29	SP	1.56	38.4%	5.5%	1.8%	.272	3.12	34.0%	28.0%	190	+1.56	1.56	1,561	63
Clayton Kershaw L 2017 · 2.93 FIP	29	SP	2.93	29.7%	4.4%	3.2%	.267	3.32	25.8%	20.8%	398	+0.39	1.44	1,477	59
Madison Bumgarner L 2019 · 3.78 FIP	29	SP	3.78	24.1%	4.7%	3.8%	.282	4.80	17.7%	11.3%	347	+1.02	2.80	1,257	53
David Price L 2015 · 2.65 FIP	29	SP	2.65	25.3%	5.1%	1.9%	.288	3.63	24.2%	18.0%	481	+0.98	2.65	922	40
Francisco Liriano L 2015 · 3.14 FIP	31	SP	3.14	26.5%	8.9%	2.1%	.289	4.64	20.7%	8.8%	394	+1.50	3.14	650	37
Dallas Keuchel L 2017 · 3.76 FIP	29	SP	3.76	21.4%	8.0%	2.6%	.254	3.72	17.7%	10.7%	381	-0.04	2.86	1,402	37
Cole Hamels L 2015 · 3.21 FIP	31	SP	3.21	24.4%	6.7%	2.4%	.288	4.05	21.7%	13.2%	539	+0.84	3.21	893	37
Jon Lester L 2015 · 2.81 FIP	31	SP	2.81	25.0%	5.7%	2.0%	.299	3.86	22.7%	15.3%	565	+1.05	2.81	1,144	36
Jimmy Nelson R 2017 · 2.76 FIP	28	SP	2.76	27.3%	6.5%	2.1%	.333	4.28	26.9%	12.3%	62	+1.52	1.32	650	35
Andrew Heaney L 2020 · 3.53 FIP	29	SP	3.53	25.1%	6.5%	3.2%	.297	4.06	27.3%	19.4%	350	+0.53	3.19	1,197	32
Jacob deGrom R 2017 · 3.35 FIP	29	SP	3.35	28.9%	6.5%	3.4%	.300	2.04	32.9%	27.5%	489	-1.31	0.74	1,538	32
Jake Odorizzi R 2019 · 3.16 FIP	29	SP	3.16	27.1%	8.1%	2.4%	.299	4.33	19.8%	12.5%	225	+1.17	3.16	1,048	31
Wei-Yin Chen L 2015 · 3.88 FIP	30	SP	3.88	19.3%	5.2%	3.2%	.288	4.31	19.3%	13.2%	290	+0.43	3.68	549	30
Scott Kazmir L 2015 · 3.84 FIP	31	SP	3.84	20.3%	7.7%	2.7%	.268	4.30	21.6%	12.9%	148	+0.46	3.84	395	30
J.A. Happ L 2015 · 3.37 FIP	32	SP	3.37	21.1%	5.7%	2.4%	.308	3.73	23.1%	15.9%	518	+0.36	3.37	1,053	30
Stephen Strasburg R 2017 · 2.42 FIP	29	SP	2.42	29.1%	6.0%	1.8%	.267	3.08	29.4%	23.0%	339	+0.66	2.42	811	30
Tyler Skaggs L 2019 · 3.64 FIP	28	SP	3.64	23.3%	8.4%	2.6%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	3.18	372	30
Masahiro Tanaka R 2018 · 3.71 FIP	29	SP	3.71	25.0%	5.5%	3.7%	.279	4.02	20.2%	15.1%	230	+0.31	3.34	918	29

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	5.7	142	28.6%	5.7%	1.23	3.40
Joe Musgrove ('24)	5.3	117	23.9%	6.0%	1.13	3.73
Noah Syndergaard ('23)	4.7	134	23.8%	5.5%	0.95	3.70
Kenta Maeda ('24)	4.9	122	25.9%	6.9%	1.30	4.17
Trevor Bauer ('21)	5.6	159	26.8%	8.7%	1.13	3.68
Julio Urías ('23)	3.6	102	24.2%	6.6%	1.06	3.13
Hyun Jin Ryu ('23)	3.5	101	22.0%	5.4%	1.17	3.27