Tarik Skubal — OGILVIE

Tarik Skubal P Los Angeles Dodgers

Age 30 LHP 6'3" / 240 lbs MLB Svc 5.0 · Ctrl thru 2026 peak 6.0 · 2027 ILActive (A) · expected back 2026-07-01

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTION0 act + 170 ip · rates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 6573vR 81

ERA2.74

FIP2.72

K%31.6%

BB%4.5%

K-BB%27.1%

ROS IP170

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 170 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—50

STUF6060

CTRL6060

CMD6060

K†7070

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p8296.8

Whiff%

p9031.7%

p9030.0%

xwOBA vs

p900.266

CH+3.4 (26%)

FB+1.8 (56%)

SL+1.0 (14%)

SI (17%)

CU (5%)

Contract CONFIRMED · hand-curated extension

Status Arb-3

MLB Debut 2020

Service 5.663 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2026

First FA Year 2027

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2018	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	5	1	10	39	16	2	0	20%	2.1	41.0%	5.1%	35.9%	0.0%	0.00	0.29	—
2018	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	5	1	10	39	16	2	0	20%	2.1	41.0%	5.1%	35.9%	0.0%	0.00	0.58	—
2019	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	24	123	490	179	37	7	100%	5.1	28.8%	8.5%	20.3%	1.7%	2.42	2.68	—
2019	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	24	123	490	179	37	7	100%	5.1	36.5%	7.6%	29.0%	1.4%	2.42	1.83	—
2020	23	MLB MLE	Detroit Tigers	8	7	32	134	37	11	9	88%	4.0	27.6%	8.2%	19.4%	7.0%	5.62	5.66	-0.3
2020	23	MLB RAW	Detroit Tigers	8	7	32	134	37	11	9	88%	4.0	27.6%	8.2%	19.4%	6.7%	5.62	5.47	-0.2
2021	24	MLB MLE	Detroit Tigers	31	29	149	634	164	47	35	94%	4.8	25.9%	7.4%	18.5%	5.8%	4.34	5.02	-0.2
2021	24	MLB RAW	Detroit Tigers	31	29	149	634	164	47	35	94%	4.8	25.9%	7.4%	18.5%	5.5%	4.34	4.89	+0.0
2022	25	MLB MLE	Detroit Tigers	21	21	118	477	117	32	9	100%	5.6	24.5%	6.7%	17.8%	2.0%	3.52	2.96	+2.9
2022	25	MLB RAW	Detroit Tigers	21	21	118	477	117	32	9	100%	5.6	24.5%	6.7%	17.8%	1.9%	3.52	2.92	+2.9
2023	26	MIX MLE	3 levels	20	20	95	366	122	17	5	100%	4.8	32.9%	4.5%	28.4%	1.3%	2.56	1.63	+4.1
2023	26	MIX RAW	3 levels	20	20	95	366	122	17	5	100%	4.8	33.3%	4.6%	28.7%	1.4%	2.56	1.75	+3.9
2024	27	MLB MLE	Detroit Tigers	31	31	192	753	228	35	15	100%	6.2	30.3%	4.6%	25.6%	2.1%	2.39	2.27	+6.6
2024	27	MLB MLE	Detroit Tigers	31	31	192	753	228	35	15	100%	6.2	30.3%	4.6%	25.6%	2.1%	2.39	2.27	+6.6
2024	27	MLB RAW	Detroit Tigers	31	31	192	753	228	35	15	100%	6.2	30.3%	4.6%	25.6%	2.0%	2.39	2.29	+6.6
2025	28	MLB MLE	Detroit Tigers	31	31	195	748	241	33	18	100%	6.3	32.2%	4.4%	27.8%	2.5%	2.21	2.32	+6.6
2025	28	MLB MLE	Detroit Tigers	31	31	195	748	241	33	18	100%	6.3	32.2%	4.4%	27.8%	2.5%	2.21	2.32	+6.6
2025	28	MLB RAW	Detroit Tigers	31	31	195	748	241	33	18	100%	6.3	32.2%	4.4%	27.8%	2.4%	2.21	2.34	+6.6
2026	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	27	164	637	192	27	14	100%	6.1	30.0%	4.4%	25.6%	2.2%	2.64	2.31	+5.6
2026	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	27	164	637	192	27	14	100%	6.1	30.0%	4.4%	25.6%	2.2%	2.64	2.31	+5.6
2026	29	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	27	164	637	192	27	14	100%	6.1	30.1%	4.2%	25.9%	2.2%	2.64	2.36	+5.4
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			163	160	925	3676	1075	199	104	98%	5.7	29.2%	5.4%	23.8%	2.8%	3.02	2.88	+23.6
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	30	MLB	LAD	28	28	170	718	227	32	17	100%	6.1	31.6%	4.5%	27.1%	2.4%	2.74	2.72	+4.7
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	31	MLB MLE	LAD	26	26	159	671	207	33	18	100%	6.1	30.8%	4.9%	26.0%	2.7%	2.86	2.95	+3.9
2029	32	MLB MLE	LAD	25	25	147	621	187	33	18	100%	5.9	30.0%	5.2%	24.8%	2.9%	3.07	3.20	+3.1
2030	33	MLB MLE	LAD	22	22	135	570	166	32	18	100%	6.1	29.2%	5.7%	23.5%	3.2%	3.32	3.48	+2.3
2031	34	MLB MLE	LAD	20	20	123	519	147	32	18	100%	6.1	28.3%	6.2%	22.1%	3.5%	3.60	3.79	+1.6
2032	35	MLB MLE	LAD	18	18	110	466	127	31	18	100%	6.1	27.3%	6.8%	20.6%	3.8%	3.91	4.12	+1.0
2033	36	MLB MLE	LAD	16	16	98	412	108	30	17	100%	6.1	26.3%	7.3%	18.9%	4.2%	4.26	4.49	+0.5
2034	37	MLB MLE	LAD	14	14	85	360	91	29	17	100%	6.1	25.2%	8.0%	17.2%	4.6%	4.64	4.89	+0.0
2028	31	MLB CTX	LAD	26	26	159	671	207	33	19	100%	6.1	30.8%	4.9%	26.0%	2.8%	2.92	3.01	+3.9
2029	32	MLB CTX	LAD	24	24	147	621	186	33	19	100%	6.1	30.0%	5.2%	24.8%	3.0%	3.14	3.27	+3.1
2030	33	MLB CTX	LAD	22	22	135	570	166	32	19	100%	6.1	29.2%	5.7%	23.5%	3.3%	3.39	3.55	+2.3
2031	34	MLB CTX	LAD	20	20	123	519	147	32	19	100%	6.2	28.3%	6.2%	22.1%	3.6%	3.68	3.87	+1.6
2032	35	MLB CTX	LAD	18	18	110	464	127	31	18	100%	6.1	27.3%	6.8%	20.6%	4.0%	4.00	4.21	+1.0
2033	36	MLB CTX	LAD	16	16	98	414	109	30	18	100%	6.1	26.3%	7.3%	18.9%	4.4%	4.36	4.59	+0.5
2034	37	MLB CTX	LAD	14	14	85	359	90	29	17	100%	6.1	25.2%	8.0%	17.2%	4.8%	4.75	5.00	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		306	303	1782	7295	2108	419	233	99%	5.8	28.9%	5.7%	23.1%	3.2%	3.31	3.14	+39.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	819	237	47	26	99%	5.8	28.9%	5.7%	23.1%	3.2%	3.31	3.14	+4.4
Career	—	MLE		198	191	1078	4278	1256	246	117	96%	5.4	29.4%	5.7%	23.6%	2.7%	2.88	2.85	+35.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		37	35	200	794	233	46	22	96%	5.4	29.4%	5.7%	23.6%	2.7%	2.88	2.85	+4.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Tarik Skubal (OGILVIE)	—	—	2.72	31.6%	4.5%	2.4%	—	3.20	30.1%	24.8%	441	+0.48	—	—	—
Erik Bedard L 2009 · 3.42 FIP	30	SP	3.42	25.9%	9.8%	2.3%	.264	3.88	22.2%	12.9%	255	+0.46	2.96	1,317	47
Wei-Yin Chen L 2015 · 3.88 FIP	30	SP	3.88	19.3%	5.2%	3.2%	.288	4.31	19.3%	13.2%	290	+0.43	3.63	1,065	45
Wandy Rodriguez L 2009 · 3.40 FIP	30	SP	3.40	22.7%	6.8%	2.5%	.296	3.80	19.3%	12.2%	592	+0.40	3.37	1,572	39
Shota Imanaga L 2024 · 3.71 FIP	30	SP	3.71	25.1%	4.0%	4.0%	.262	4.76	22.8%	17.9%	319	+1.05	3.71	492	33
Jacob deGrom R 2018 · 1.69 FIP	30	SP	1.69	32.2%	5.1%	1.2%	.277	1.93	36.4%	31.3%	364	+0.24	0.74	1,692	32
Corey Kluber R 2016 · 3.10 FIP	30	SP	3.10	26.4%	6.5%	2.6%	.267	2.73	29.6%	25.0%	454	-0.37	2.16	1,636	22
Yu Darvish R 2017 · 3.59 FIP	30	SP	3.59	27.3%	7.4%	3.4%	.279	3.53	30.7%	23.5%	295	-0.06	1.97	1,798	22
Shohei Ohtani R 2023 · 3.58 FIP	29	SP	3.58	31.5%	10.4%	3.3%	.230	2.13	29.7%	23.1%	133	-1.45	1.76	613	21
Matt Tomshaw L 2019 · 3.09 FIP	30	SP-	3.09	21.6%	4.5%	2.3%	.297	8.67	18.4%	13.6%	53	+5.58	3.04	681	20
Juan Pablo Oramas L 2019 · 3.60 FIP	29	SP	3.60	21.2%	8.0%	2.3%	.337	—	—	—	—	—	3.46	440	19
Ryan Verdugo L 2017 · 3.36 FIP	30	SP-	3.36	22.7%	5.4%	2.7%	.333	—	—	—	—	—	3.36	153	17
Tanner Roark R 2017 · 3.88 FIP	30	SP	3.88	21.4%	7.6%	3.0%	.294	4.48	20.3%	13.2%	393	+0.60	2.40	1,194	16
Marco Estrada R 2013 · 3.81 FIP	30	SP	3.81	23.0%	5.7%	3.5%	.260	4.34	20.4%	12.6%	508	+0.53	3.28	1,244	16
Paul Oseguera L 2015 · 3.83 FIP	31	SP	3.83	17.6%	8.5%	2.1%	.297	5.62	5.6%	-6.9%	28	+1.79	3.83	162	15
Michael Pineda R 2019 · 3.79 FIP	30	SP	3.79	23.3%	4.5%	3.8%	.288	4.20	18.0%	13.4%	208	+0.41	2.00	1,034	15
Ryan Bollinger L 2018 · 3.56 FIP	27	SP	3.56	17.1%	7.5%	1.7%	.290	—	—	—	—	—	3.56	112	15
Tsuyoshi Wada L 2014 · 3.60 FIP	33	SP	3.60	19.7%	6.2%	2.5%	.290	3.66	16.8%	9.7%	119	+0.06	3.60	188	14
Jose De Paula L 2019 · 3.31 FIP	31	SP	3.31	19.0%	7.6%	1.6%	.394	—	—	—	—	—	3.31	118	13
Scott Diamond L 2016 · 3.46 FIP	30	SP	3.46	12.7%	4.8%	1.5%	.326	—	—	—	—	—	3.46	659	13
Jameson Taillon R 2022 · 3.74 FIP	30	SP	3.74	20.7%	4.4%	3.4%	.274	4.37	19.6%	14.2%	466	+0.63	3.12	1,401	13

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 497 starter careers (1990-2025).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	9.8	130	29.1%	5.6%	1.18	3.22
Stephen Strasburg ('22)	7.3	134	28.9%	6.6%	0.91	3.24
Yu Darvish ('25)	8.9	137	28.4%	7.7%	1.17	3.65
Corey Kluber ('23)	8.2	149	25.8%	5.5%	0.97	3.44
Pablo López ('25)	4.8	121	24.9%	6.3%	1.07	3.81
Johan Santana ('12)	10.1	169	24.1%	6.9%	0.98	3.20
David Price ('22)	10.7	165	23.6%	6.4%	0.93	3.32