Tarik Skubal
P
Detroit Tigers
+3.3
WAR
INJURED · Injured 15-Day (D15) · expected back 2026-07-01
Tarik Skubal — left elbow loose-bodies surgery 2026-05-04. Expected return in 4-8 weeks per Heyman / MLB sources. With ~10 weeks lost from a 26-week season, ROS workload ~65% of full pre-season projection.
Age 29
LHP
6'3" / 240 lbs
MLB
Svc 5.0 · Ctrl thru 2027
peak 4.3 · 2027
ERA2.60
FIP2.75
xFIP2.75
SIERA2.93
K%31.0%
BB%4.9%
K-BB%26.1%
IP180
trajectory · 10 yrs
4.3peak
2027
K†7070
FB Velo
p7996.6
Whiff%
p8230.3%
K%
p8128.0%
xwOBA vs
p680.294
CH+3.4 (26%)
FB+1.8 (58%)
SL+1.0 (14%)
SI (19%)
CU (3%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 21 | A | West Michigan Whitecaps | 5 | 1 | 10 | 39 | 16 | 2 | 0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | — | — |
| 2019 | 22 | AA | Erie SeaWolves | 24 | 24 | 123 | 490 | 179 | 37 | 7 | 28.8% | 8.5% | 1.7% | 2.42 | 2.67 | +3.7 |
| 2020 | 23 | MLB | Detroit Tigers | 8 | 7 | 32 | 134 | 37 | 11 | 9 | 27.6% | 8.2% | 6.9% | 5.62 | 5.61 | -0.2 |
| 2021 | 24 | MLB | Detroit Tigers | 31 | 29 | 149 | 634 | 164 | 47 | 35 | 25.9% | 7.4% | 5.7% | 4.34 | 4.98 | +0.5 |
| 2022 | 25 | MLB | Detroit Tigers | 21 | 21 | 118 | 477 | 117 | 32 | 9 | 24.5% | 6.7% | 2.0% | 3.52 | 2.98 | +3.1 |
| 2023 | 26 | MLB | Detroit Tigers | 20 | 20 | 95 | 366 | 122 | 17 | 5 | 32.9% | 4.5% | 1.4% | 2.56 | 1.64 | +3.9 |
| 2024 | 27 | MLB | Detroit Tigers | 31 | 31 | 192 | 753 | 228 | 35 | 15 | 30.3% | 4.6% | 2.0% | 2.39 | 2.23 | +6.7 |
| 2025 | 28 | MLB | Detroit Tigers | 31 | 31 | 195 | 748 | 241 | 33 | 18 | 32.2% | 4.4% | 2.3% | 2.21 | 2.20 | +6.9 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 29 | MLB | Detroit Tigers | 4 | 4 | 24 | 95 | 23 | 4 | 1 | 24.2% | 4.2% | 1.1% | 2.22 | 2.17 | +0.8 |
| ROS | 29 | MLB | DET | 15 | 15 | 84 | 356 | 107 | 17 | 8 | 29.9% | 4.8% | 2.1% | 2.16 | 2.34 | +2.7 |
| 2026 Total | 29 | MLB | DET | — | — | 109 | 451 | 130 | 21 | 9 | 28.7% | 4.6% | 1.9% | 2.17 | 2.30 | +3.7 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 30 | MLB | DET | 27 | 27 | 151 | 637 | 188 | 31 | 14 | 29.5% | 4.9% | 2.2% | 2.70 | 2.81 | +4.3 |
| 2028 | 31 | MLB | DET | 25 | 25 | 135 | 572 | 165 | 29 | 13 | 28.9% | 5.0% | 2.3% | 2.83 | 2.91 | +3.7 |
| 2029 | 32 | MLB | DET | 22 | 22 | 121 | 510 | 144 | 26 | 12 | 28.3% | 5.1% | 2.3% | 2.95 | 3.03 | +3.1 |
| 2030 | 33 | MLB | DET | 20 | 20 | 107 | 453 | 125 | 24 | 11 | 27.6% | 5.3% | 2.4% | 3.07 | 3.15 | +2.6 |
| 2031 | 34 | MLB | DET | 17 | 17 | 95 | 401 | 108 | 22 | 10 | 26.9% | 5.5% | 2.5% | 3.20 | 3.29 | +2.1 |
| 2032 | 35 | MLB | DET | 15 | 15 | 83 | 351 | 92 | 20 | 9 | 26.2% | 5.8% | 2.6% | 3.35 | 3.44 | +1.6 |
| 2033 | 36 | MLB | DET | 13 | 13 | 72 | 305 | 84 | 16 | 8 | 27.4% | 5.2% | 2.8% | 3.34 | 3.34 | +1.4 |
| 2034 | 37 | MLB | DET | 11 | 11 | 62 | 263 | 70 | 14 | 8 | 26.6% | 5.5% | 2.9% | 3.44 | 3.51 | +1.0 |
| 2035 | 38 | MLB | DET | 53 | — | 53 | 225 | 58 | 13 | 7 | 25.8% | 5.8% | 3.0% | 3.60 | 3.70 | +0.8 |
| 2036 | 39 | MLB | DET | 46 | — | 46 | 193 | 48 | 12 | 6 | 24.9% | 6.1% | 3.2% | 3.77 | 3.89 | +0.5 |
| 2037 | 40 | MLB | DET | 39 | — | 39 | 165 | 40 | 11 | 5 | 24.1% | 6.4% | 3.3% | 3.95 | 4.07 | +0.4 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 175 | 168 | 939 | 3736 | 1088 | 222 | 101 | 29.1% | 5.9% | 2.7% | 2.91 | 2.89 | +25.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 37 | 36 | 200 | 796 | 232 | 47 | 22 | 29.1% | 5.9% | 2.7% | 2.91 | 2.89 | +5.5 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Tarik Skubal (OGILVIE) | — | — | 2.61 | 32.8% | 4.9% | 2.3% | — | 2.91 | 28.9% | 23.9% | 407 | +0.30 | — | — | — |
| Jaime García L 2026 · 2.96 FIP | 29 | SP- | 2.96 | 19.0% | 5.9% | 1.3% | .265 | 4.28 | 19.7% | 11.0% | 411 | +1.32 | 2.96 | 540 | 36 |
| Ryan Bollinger L 2024 · 3.57 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.57 | 17.1% | 7.5% | 1.7% | .290 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.57 | 112 | 35 |
| Mike Montgomery L 2026 · 3.67 FIP | 29 | SP- | 3.67 | 16.1% | 6.6% | 2.0% | .300 | 5.25 | 17.4% | 8.6% | 108 | +1.58 | 3.50 | 764 | 34 |
| Irwin Delgado L 2025 · 3.50 FIP | 28 | SP- | 3.50 | 18.7% | 10.2% | 1.2% | .345 | 4.75 | 15.6% | 6.1% | 89 | +1.25 | 3.50 | 383 | 32 |
| Greg Smith L 2028 · 3.37 FIP | 31 | SP- | 3.37 | 11.8% | 5.3% | 1.1% | .284 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.37 | 120 | 31 |
| Nick Greenwood L 2025 · 3.68 FIP | 28 | SP- | 3.68 | 11.2% | 2.9% | 2.1% | .288 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.68 | 241 | 30 |
| Alejandro Astorga L 2026 · 3.73 FIP | 29 | SP- | 3.73 | 15.0% | 9.1% | 1.4% | .290 | 4.01 | 14.4% | 6.2% | 116 | +0.28 | 3.73 | 311 | 28 |
| Jo-Jo Reyes L 2027 · 3.51 FIP | 30 | SP | 3.51 | 14.9% | 6.4% | 1.6% | .326 | 3.34 | 16.3% | 10.7% | 90 | -0.17 | 3.02 | 240 | 26 |
| Roenis Elías L 2026 · 3.14 FIP | 29 | SP- | 3.14 | 17.8% | 8.4% | 0.9% | .275 | 4.47 | 21.8% | 13.9% | 50 | +1.33 | 3.14 | 564 | 26 |
| Chris Rusin L 2026 · 2.93 FIP | 29 | SP- | 2.93 | 19.7% | 6.0% | 1.3% | .302 | 3.80 | 17.8% | 10.7% | 205 | +0.87 | 2.93 | 488 | 26 |
| David Price L 2026 · 2.58 FIP | 29 | SP | 2.58 | 25.3% | 5.1% | 1.8% | .288 | 3.59 | 24.2% | 18.0% | 481 | +1.01 | 2.58 | 922 | 26 |
| Edgar Olmos L 2024 · 3.66 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.66 | 18.9% | 9.7% | 1.7% | .252 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.20 | 203 | 25 |
| Scott Diamond L 2026 · 3.78 FIP | 29 | SP | 3.78 | 12.6% | 4.3% | 2.2% | .330 | 3.45 | 12.7% | 7.9% | 166 | -0.33 | 3.45 | 316 | 25 |
| Matt Tomshaw L 2026 · 3.51 FIP | 29 | SP | 3.51 | 14.6% | 4.7% | 1.9% | .374 | 4.89 | 20.6% | 16.0% | 164 | +1.38 | 3.08 | 681 | 25 |
| Cole Hamels L 2028 · 3.22 FIP | 31 | SP | 3.22 | 24.4% | 6.7% | 2.4% | .288 | 4.09 | 21.7% | 13.2% | 539 | +0.87 | 3.22 | 893 | 25 |
| Eric Jokisch L 2026 · 3.79 FIP | 29 | SP | 3.79 | 16.3% | 7.4% | 2.1% | .323 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.79 | 412 | 25 |
| Clayton Richard L 2028 · 3.51 FIP | 31 | SP- | 3.51 | 10.8% | 4.2% | 1.4% | .264 | 4.12 | 16.3% | 8.6% | 424 | +0.61 | 3.51 | 574 | 24 |
| Jacob Latz L 2026 · 3.69 FIP | 29 | SP- | 3.69 | 23.0% | 11.2% | 2.0% | .270 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.22 | 408 | 24 |
| Tony Watson L 2027 · 2.54 FIP | 30 | SW | 2.54 | 21.2% | 5.5% | 1.0% | .245 | 3.54 | 22.3% | 17.1% | 200 | +1.00 | 2.22 | 405 | 24 |
| Juan Pablo Oramas L 2026 · 3.56 FIP | 29 | SP | 3.56 | 21.2% | 8.0% | 2.2% | .337 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.41 | 440 | 24 |
Contract
CONFIRMED · hand-curated extension
Status Arb-3
MLB Debut 2020
Service 5.663 yrs.days
Team Control Through 2027
First FA Year 2028
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | Arb-3 | $9M | +3.3 | $26M | +$17M |
| 2027 | Ext / FA-deal | $14M | +4.3 | $35M | +$21M |
| Totals | $23M | $62M | +$39M | ||