Cal Raleigh — OGILVIE

Cal RaleighC Seattle Mariners

Age 29 S/R 6'2" / 235 lbs MLB HR +3% Svc 4.494 · Ctrl thru 2030 peak 4.9 · 2026

wRC+†vL 124118vR 115

AVG/OBP/SLG.230 / .332 / .502

PA520

HR35

SB8

K%27

BB%12

xwOBA.322

Barrel%13.0%

MLB%100%

Scouting · now → future

HIT

45→45

PWR

60→60

SPD

40→40

EYE

64↘40

trajectory · 10 yrs

4.7peak

2026

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Arb-2

MLB Debut 2021

Service 4.494 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2030

First FA Year 2031

NTCOPT

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	Arb-2	$18M	+4.9	$39M	+$22M
2027	Arb-3	$18M	+4.8	$40M	+$22M
2028	Ext / FA-deal	$18M	+4.3	$36M	+$19M
2029	Ext / FA-deal	$18M	+3.9	$34M	+$17M
2030	Ext / FA-deal	$18M	+3.4	$31M	+$13M
Totals		$88M		$180M	+$92M

Options · projected decision
2031	VESTING OPT	$2031.0M / $0.0M buyout	—
2032	VESTING OPT	$20.0M / $2.0M buyout	—

Career Projections (MLE)

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2019	22	A+	2 teams	507	473	101	18	0	33	29	154	3	4	0	.214	.263	.461	.724	.247	.236	30	6	.309	95	-3	+1	+0	+9	+14	2.2
2021	24	AAA	2 teams	347	319	74	29	1	9	17	84	5	3	2	.232	.282	.414	.695	.182	.280	24	5	.301	89	-4	-0	+4	+6	+10	1.6
2022	25	MLB	2 teams	445	399	84	21	1	27	39	131	2	1	0	.211	.284	.471	.755	.261	.232	29	9	.326	108	+4	+0	+16	+8	+13	4.1
2023	26	MLB	Seattle Mariners	569	513	121	23	1	30	54	158	1	0	0	.236	.310	.460	.770	.224	.279	28	9	.334	114	+9	+0	+19	+10	+16	5.5
2024	27	MLB	Seattle Mariners	628	546	122	16	0	35	70	176	6	6	1	.223	.318	.445	.763	.222	.255	28	11	.325	107	+5	+1	+24	+11	+18	5.9
2025	28	MLB	Seattle Mariners	705	596	146	24	0	58	97	188	9	14	4	.245	.359	.577	.936	.332	.249	27	14	.381	150	+40	+1	+20	+13	+20	9.6
▸ 2026 Season (actual · ROS · total)
2026	29	MLB	Seattle Mariners	114	101	20	4	0	5	12	33	0	2	0	.198	.283	.386	.669	.188	.234	29	11	.294	83	-2	+0	+4	+2	+3	0.8
ROS	29	MLB	SEA	406	352	79	13	0	26	48	111	3	6	1	.224	.323	.483	.806	.259	.247	27	12	.352	127	+13	+1	+8	+7	+12	4.1
TOT	29	MLB	SEA	520	453	99	17	0	31	60	144	3	8	1	.219	.314	.461	.775	.243	.242	28	12	.339	118	+10	+1	+12	+9	+15	4.9
▸ 2027+ Projections — Projections at projected PA · Park-neutral MLB equivalent · Marcel + aging curve
2027	30	MLB	SEA	520	450	100	17	0	32	61	111	4	7	1	.222	.320	.473	.794	.251	.219	21	12	.349	125	+15	+1	+8	+9	+15	4.9
2028	31	MLB	SEA	504	435	96	16	0	31	60	110	4	4	1	.221	.321	.471	.792	.251	.217	22	12	.345	122	+13	+0	+7	+9	+14	4.4
2029	32	MLB	SEA	489	424	91	15	0	29	58	109	4	2	0	.215	.315	.455	.770	.241	.215	22	12	.340	118	+10	+0	+6	+9	+14	4.0
2030	33	MLB	SEA	473	411	87	14	0	28	56	109	3	0	0	.212	.311	.450	.761	.238	.213	23	12	.334	114	+7	+0	+5	+8	+13	3.5
2031	34	MLB	SEA	458	399	81	13	0	26	53	109	3	0	0	.203	.301	.431	.732	.228	.210	24	12	.326	108	+4	+0	+4	+8	+13	3.0
2032	35	MLB	SEA	442	385	76	12	0	24	51	110	3	0	0	.197	.296	.416	.712	.218	.207	25	12	.317	101	+1	+0	+3	+8	+13	2.5
2033	36	MLB	SEA	376	328	63	10	0	20	43	97	2	0	0	.192	.290	.405	.695	.213	.203	26	11	.307	93	-3	+0	+1	+7	+11	1.6
2034	37	MLB	SEA	310	270	50	8	0	15	35	83	2	0	0	.185	.283	.381	.665	.196	.198	27	11	.296	84	-5	+0	-1	+6	+9	0.8
2035	38	MLB	SEA	243	213	37	6	0	11	27	67	1	0	0	.174	.270	.357	.627	.183	.193	28	11	.283	75	-7	+0	-3	+4	+7	0.2
2036	39	MLB	SEA	184	161	27	4	0	8	20	52	1	0	0	.168	.264	.342	.605	.174	.187	28	11	.271	65	-7	+0	-5	+3	+5	-0.3
▸ Career Totals (MLE all levels + projections)
Career	—			7606	6674	1435	259	3	442	818	1959	56	47	10	.215	.306	.453	.759	.238	.230	26	11	.330	110	+89	+5	+118	+136	+216	57.5
/ 162G	—			650	570	122	22	0	38	70	167	5	4	1	.214	.305	.453	.758	.239	.228	26	11	.330	110	+8	+0	+10	+12	+18	4.9

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2019	22	AA	Arkansas Travelers	159	145	33	6	0	7	14	47	0	0	0	.228	.296	.414	.709	.186	.286	30	9	.315	99	-0	+0	—	—	+5	0.5
2019	22	A+	Modesto Nuts	348	310	81	19	0	22	33	69	3	4	0	.261	.338	.535	.874	.274	.267	20	9	.378	148	+19	+1	—	—	+10	3.0
2021	24	MLB	Seattle Mariners	148	139	25	12	0	2	7	52	1	0	0	.180	.224	.309	.534	.129	.267	35	5	.237	40	-10	+0	+4	+6	+4	0.4
2021	24	AAA	Tacoma Rainiers	199	176	57	21	1	9	14	25	4	3	2	.324	.387	.608	.995	.284	.327	13	7	.420	179	+18	-0	—	—	+6	2.4
2022	25	MLB	Seattle Mariners	415	370	78	20	1	27	38	122	2	1	0	.211	.288	.489	.777	.278	.226	29	9	.334	114	+6	+0	+16	+8	+12	4.3
2022	25	AAA	Tacoma Rainiers	30	28	8	2	0	1	2	7	0	0	0	.286	.333	.464	.798	.179	.350	23	7	.352	128	+1	+0	—	—	+1	0.2
2023	26	MLB	Seattle Mariners	569	513	119	23	1	30	54	158	1	0	0	.232	.306	.456	.762	.224	.273	28	9	.335	115	+10	+0	+19	+10	+16	5.5
2024	27	MLB	Seattle Mariners	628	546	120	16	0	34	70	176	6	6	1	.220	.315	.436	.751	.216	.251	28	11	.331	112	+8	+1	+24	+11	+18	6.3
2025	28	MLB	Seattle Mariners	705	596	147	24	0	60	97	188	9	14	4	.247	.360	.589	.949	.342	.248	27	14	.407	170	+55	+1	+20	+13	+20	11.2
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			2465	2164	489	95	2	153	266	696	19	21	5	.226	.316	.484	.800	.258	.252	28	11	.349	125	+70	+2	+82	+48	+70	27.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Cal Raleigh (OGILVIE)	29	45	60	40	40	.223/.321/.478	.255	.220	33	8	21%	12%	127	+3.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Gary Sánchez 2022 · MLB	29	35→45	63→65	43→45	51	.212/.305/.441	.229	.242	33	2	29%	10%	110	+2.4	.210/.296/.398	.188	.257	25	3	28%	10%	95	+1.4	.219/.305/.417	.199	.255	30	1	27%	9%	101	+0.8
●Yasmani Grandal 2018 · MLB	29	46→56	60→65	36→40	55	.246/.333/.460	.215	.286	29	2	25%	12%	126	+3.5	.244/.350/.459	.215	.290	27	4	24%	14%	132	+4.0	.235/.383/.454	.220	.273	28	2	24%	19%	137	+2.9
●Matt Chapman 2022 · MLB	29	43→53	62→65	44→50	52	.235/.326/.466	.232	.285	31	3	29%	11%	124	+3.4	.237/.327/.439	.202	.303	24	5	28%	11%	118	+3.0	.244/.337/.451	.208	.299	24	10	25%	11%	122	+3.2
●Mike Moustakas 2018 · MLB	29	50→54	63→65	39→45	49	.271/.324/.498	.227	.269	32	2	14%	6%	133	+4.0	.255/.319/.480	.225	.262	30	4	17%	8%	126	+3.5	.246/.321/.469	.223	.254	29	3	17%	9%	115	+2.1
★Donny Leon 2006 · AAA	29	49→59	62→55	48→30	51	.264/.320/.493	.228	.260	32	8	14%	7%	130	+3.8	.275/.340/.472	.197	.287	28	3	16%	8%	132	+4.0	.274/.341/.448	.175	.286	26	1	15%	8%	130	+2.7
●Jedd Gyorko 2018 · MLB	29	47→53	59→60	44→45	50	.254/.318/.457	.203	.283	29	4	22%	8%	119	+3.1	.252/.329/.432	.180	.293	23	6	22%	10%	117	+2.9	.242/.328/.406	.164	.284	21	4	22%	11%	108	+0.8
✕Danny Jansen 2023 · MLB	28	44→54	60→65	47→45	54	.239/.320/.453	.214	.255	29	4	20%	10%	119	+3.1	.234/.321/.441	.207	.256	27	3	21%	10%	116	+2.8	.217/.316/.407	.190	.240	25	0	22%	11%	100	+0.9
★Dan Uggla 2009 · MLB	29	49→54	60→65	41→45	52	.258/.340/.484	.226	.299	27	5	24%	10%	134	+4.1	.253/.346/.473	.220	.294	28	4	23%	12%	134	+4.1	.247/.340/.458	.210	.280	29	2	23%	12%	122	+3.6
★Andruw Jones 2006 · MLB	29	48→58	67→70	42→50	54	.265/.343/.524	.259	.274	35	5	19%	10%	147	+5.0	.244/.336/.478	.234	.260	31	5	20%	11%	132	+4.0	.227/.325/.434	.207	.249	27	4	22%	11%	110	+2.2
●Eugenio Suárez 2020 · MLB	29	50→52	64→65	41→50	54	.267/.357/.505	.238	.312	33	3	26%	11%	147	+5.0	.230/.321/.467	.237	.274	33	3	29%	11%	123	+3.3	.233/.312/.448	.215	.288	30	2	29%	8%	112	+2.8
●Jorge Polanco 2022 · MLB	29	53→59	57→60	45→50	50	.274/.331/.476	.202	.297	25	8	18%	7%	129	+3.7	.247/.328/.433	.186	.290	24	7	23%	10%	117	+2.9	.244/.320/.432	.188	.285	25	6	24%	9%	110	+1.9
●Max Muncy 2020 · MLB	29	48→46	63→65	44→45	60	.254/.365/.490	.236	.303	31	5	26%	14%	146	+4.9	.231/.352/.454	.223	.263	29	4	24%	15%	132	+4.0	.211/.338/.434	.224	.233	29	2	24%	15%	118	+2.9
●Mitch Garver 2020 · MLB	29	48	62→70	48→40	51	.257/.333/.489	.232	.296	30	3	24%	10%	134	+4.1	.248/.333/.477	.229	.305	30	4	28%	10%	131	+3.9	.241/.341/.450	.209	.290	28	1	26%	12%	122	+1.6
●Manny Machado 2021 · MLB	29	52→58	60→65	48→50	55	.275/.348/.492	.217	.289	29	9	17%	10%	140	+4.5	.275/.344/.484	.209	.301	27	9	18%	10%	137	+4.3	.272/.342/.482	.210	.296	28	8	18%	9%	127	+3.7
★Nolan Arenado 2020 · MLB	29	53→56	62→70	42→40	56	.284/.355/.517	.234	.293	31	3	16%	10%	150	+5.2	.269/.334/.496	.227	.271	30	4	14%	9%	136	+4.2	.266/.327/.493	.226	.270	29	3	14%	8%	126	+3.7
★Kyle Schwarber 2022 · MLB	29	43→48	68→70	41→45	56	.246/.346/.512	.267	.278	37	3	27%	12%	144	+4.8	.222/.338/.479	.257	.257	36	5	29%	14%	133	+4.0	.219/.352/.476	.257	.251	36	4	29%	16%	129	+4.4
●Chris Iannetta 2011 · MLB	28	44→54	58→60	45	58	.236/.347/.446	.210	.266	25	3	22%	12%	128	+3.7	.232/.346/.397	.165	.279	19	6	22%	14%	115	+2.8	.236/.357/.383	.147	.304	16	2	25%	15%	112	+1.5
✕Travis Shaw 2019 · MLB	29	47→53	59→60	49→45	55	.249/.333/.460	.210	.279	27	7	22%	11%	126	+3.5	.223/.320/.409	.186	.269	24	5	26%	12%	108	+2.3	.199/.300/.363	.164	.250	22	2	29%	11%	83	+0.3
✕Aaron Hicks 2020 · MLB	30	47→56	57→60	47→55	61	.248/.353/.450	.202	.282	25	11	21%	14%	131	+3.9	.227/.339/.385	.158	.274	18	9	22%	14%	109	+2.4	.225/.333/.335	.110	.284	13	11	23%	13%	90	+0.5
✕Ramon Castro 2004 · MLB	28	47	62→55	48→40	53	.257/.328/.480	.223	.276	31	6	20%	9%	129	+3.7	.229/.307/.408	.179	.276	22	5	25%	10%	102	+1.8	.251/.314/.471	.220	.277	32	0	23%	8%	117	+0.8

Contract

Career Projections (MLE) Show advanced cols

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Career Path Comps

Career Projections (MLE)