Cal Raleigh

C Seattle Mariners
Age 30 S/R 6'2" / 235 lbs MLB K +7%HR -5% Svc 5.494 · Ctrl thru 2031
Overview
MLB40-MANExtFA 2032
YearAgeLvl / TeamPAAVG/OBP/SLGHRSBwRC+WAR
202427MLBSEA628.220/.315/.4363461105.8
202528MLBSEA705.247/.360/.58960141549.7
202629MLBSEA530.182/.298/.368232912.0
2027PROJ30MLBSEA445.212/.317/.4552641183.8
2028PROJ31MLBSEA426.207/.312/.4442511143.1
2029PROJ32MLBSEA407.201/.305/.4312311092.6
Last 3 seasons WAR 17.5  ·  Next 3 projected WAR 9.5Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.
ContractESTIMATED
Control thru2031Service5.494First FA2032Options2NTC
2027Ext$18M2028Ext$18M2029Ext$18M2030Ext$18M
Skills · percentileStatcast 2024-2026
Barrel%90
xwOBA83
Bat Spd83
Avg EV76
Speed17
Form.213/.321/.457 · rolling true talent (60d window) · proj .214/.317/.464
CompsPedro Álvarez (age 30) · Rick Ankiel (age 30) · Gary Sánchez (age 28)
2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection
showingPROJ
wRC+†vL 118118vR 118
AVG/OBP/SLG.212 / .317 / .455
PA445
HR26
K%29
BB%12
BABIP236
ISO240
MLB%100%
Value2027 · WAR
BAT: +9.8 runs (wOBA-derived runs vs avg)+10BATRUN: -0.5 runs (SB/CS + UBR baserunning)-0RUNFLD: +9.7 runs (Defensive runs vs avg)+10FLDPOS: +7.9 runs (Positional adjustment)+8POSREP: +9.6 runs (Replacement-level credit)+10REPTotal WAR: +4.00+4.0WAR
0.02.04.04.03.12.62.127282930313233343536
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$24M ctrl surplus
Tools · Recent Form · Splits · ContractCON 45 / POW 60
Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2024-2026
CONTACT45
xAVG
110.219
POWER60
Barrel%
9016.6
Avg EV
7690.9
Bat Spd
8374.8
EYE40
scouting grade only
SPEED40
Sprint
1725.9
Recent Formrolling true talent ⓘ
K%28%·28% over 110 PA (60d) · proj 29%
BB%13%▲14% over 110 PA (60d) · proj 12%
ISO.244·.234 over 94 AB (60d) · proj .250
HR/BB9.5%▼7.8% over 64 BBE (60d) · proj 10.5%
BABIP.243▲.305 over 59 BIP (60d) · proj .239
SLASH.213/.321/.457·proj .214/.317/.464
Platoon Splits2024-2026 · 1457 PA
vs LHP
vs RHP
Edge
PA
408
1049
—
wRC+
134
127
◀L
wOBA
366
356
—
ISO
319
255
◀◀L
BABIP
230
259
▶R
K%
27.2%
27.5%
—
BB%
7.6%
12.3%
▶▶R
Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status   Arb-3
MLB Debut   2021
Service   5.494 yrs.days
Team Control Through   2031
First FA Year   2032
NTCOPT
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2027Ext$18M+4.0$44M+$26M
2028Ext$18M+3.1$26M+$11M
2029Ext$18M+2.6$18M+$4M
2030Ext$18M+2.1$13M+$0.6M
Totals $70M $102M +$42M
Options · projected decision
2031VESTING OPT$17.5M / $0.0M buyout—
2032VESTING OPT$20.0M / $2.0M buyout—

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.
basis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run 1-3 WAR low.

YearAge LvlTeam MLB% PAAB H2B3BHR BBSOHBP SBCS AVGOBPSLGOPS ISOBABIP K%BB% wOBAwRC+ BATRUNFLDPOSREP WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
201922 AAArkansas Travelers — 159145 33607 14470 00 228296414709 186286 309 315 69 — — — — — —
201922 A+Modesto Nuts — 348310 8119022 33693 40 261338535874 274267 209 378 107 — — — — — —
202124 MLBSeattle Mariners — 148139 251202 7521 00 180224309534 129267 355 237 49 -9 +0 +4 +6 +3 0.4
202124 AAATacoma Rainiers — 199176 572119 14254 32 324387608995 284327 137 420 128 — — — — — —
202225 MLBSeattle Mariners — 415370 7820127 381222 10 211288489777 278226 299 334 116 +8 +0 +16 +8 +9 4.1
202225 AAATacoma Rainiers — 3028 8201 270 00 286333464798 179350 237 352 80 — — — — — —
202326 MLBSeattle Mariners — 569513 11923130 541581 00 232306456762 224273 289 335 115 +10 +0 +19 +10 +12 5.2
202427 MLBSeattle Mariners — 628546 12016034 701766 61 220315436751 216251 2811 331 110 +7 +1 +24 +11 +14 5.8
202528 MLBSeattle Mariners — 705596 14724060 971889 144 247360589949 342248 2714 407 154 +45 +1 +21 +13 +15 9.7
202629 MLBSeattle Mariners — 530451 8215023 721643 21 182298368667 186220 3114 301 91 -6 +0 +4 +10 +11 2.0
202629 AAATacoma Rainiers — 1714 6005 221 00 4295291.5002.029 1.071143 1212 791 261 — — — — — —
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career— — 29952615 5711102176 33886022 236 218313464777 246247 2911 340 116 +58 +2 +87 +58 +65 27.5
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
201922 AA MLEArkansas Travelers — 159150 30507 9560 00 200245373619 173264 356 270 69 — — — — — —
201922 A+ MLEModesto Nuts — 348323 7113025 20953 40 220272492764 272223 276 326 107 — — — — — —
202124 MLB MLESeattle Mariners — 148139 251202 7521 00 180224309534 129267 355 240 49 -9 +0 +4 +6 +3 0.4
202124 AAA MLETacoma Rainiers — 199180 521817 10304 32 289340517857 228289 155 358 128 — — — — — —
202225 MLB MLESeattle Mariners — 415370 7920128 381222 10 214290500790 286226 299 339 116 +8 +0 +16 +8 +9 4.1
202225 AAA MLETacoma Rainiers — 3029 8201 180 00 276300448748 172328 273 286 80 — — — — — —
202326 MLB MLESeattle Mariners — 569514 12023131 531581 00 233306463769 230273 289 338 115 +10 +0 +19 +10 +12 5.2
202427 MLB MLESeattle Mariners — 628550 12116035 661766 61 220310440750 220251 2811 331 110 +7 +1 +24 +11 +14 5.8
202528 MLB MLESeattle Mariners — 705613 14924062 801889 144 243339586925 343248 2711 396 154 +45 +1 +21 +13 +15 9.7
202629 MLB MLESeattle Mariners — 530452 8315024 711643 21 184298376675 192220 3113 303 91 -6 +0 +4 +10 +11 2.0
202629 AAA MLETacoma Rainiers — 1715 4003 121 00 2673538671.220 600105 126 554 261 — — — — — —
201922 A+ MLE2 teams — 507473 10219032 291503 40 216265459724 243239 306 308 95 — — — — — —
201922 A+ RAW2 teams — 507455 11425029 471163 40 251325497821 246272 239 358 95 — — — — — —
202124 AAA MLE2 teams — 347319 773019 17825 32 241290426717 185291 245 308 94 — — — — — —
202124 AAA RAW2 teams — 347315 8233111 21775 32 260317476793 216305 226 342 94 — — — — — —
202225 MLB MLE2 teams — 445399 8622128 391302 10 216289486775 271236 299 335 113 +7 +0 +16 +8 +10 4.1
202225 MLB RAW2 teams — 445398 8622128 401292 10 216291487778 271236 299 335 113 +7 +0 +16 +8 +10 4.1
202326 MLB MLESeattle Mariners — 569514 12023131 531581 00 233306463769 230273 289 338 115 +10 +0 +19 +10 +12 5.2
202326 MLB RAWSeattle Mariners — 569513 11923130 541581 00 232306456762 224273 289 335 115 +10 +0 +19 +10 +12 5.2
202427 MLB MLESeattle Mariners — 628550 12116035 661766 61 220310440750 220249 2811 331 110 +7 +1 +24 +11 +14 5.8
202427 MLB RAWSeattle Mariners — 628546 12016034 701766 61 220315436751 216251 2811 331 110 +7 +1 +24 +11 +14 5.8
202528 MLB MLESeattle Mariners — 705613 14924062 801889 144 243339586925 343238 2711 396 154 +45 +1 +21 +13 +15 9.7
202528 MLB RAWSeattle Mariners — 705596 14724060 971889 144 247360589949 342248 2714 407 154 +45 +1 +21 +13 +15 9.7
202629 MLB MLE2 teams — 547467 8715027 721664 21 186300392692 206216 3013 310 96 -2 +0 +4 +10 +12 2.4
202629 MLB RAW2 teams — 547465 8815028 741664 21 189306402708 213218 3014 316 96 -2 +0 +4 +10 +12 2.4
201922 A+ MLE2 teams — 507470 10219032 291503 40 217265462727 245236 306 308 95 — — — — — —
202124 AAA MLE2 teams — 347322 773019 17825 32 239290422713 183280 245 308 94 — — — — — —
202225 MLB MLE2 teams — 445401 8622128 391302 10 214289484772 269233 299 335 113 — — — — — —
202326 MLB MLESeattle Mariners — 569510 12023131 531581 00 235306467773 231273 289 338 115 — — — — — —
202427 MLB MLESeattle Mariners — 628551 12116035 661766 61 220310439749 220251 2811 331 110 — — — — — —
202528 MLB MLESeattle Mariners — 705610 14924062 801889 144 244339589928 344248 2711 396 154 — — — — — —
202629 MLB MLE2 teams — 547466 8715027 721664 21 187300393693 206217 3013 310 96 — — — — — —
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
202427 MLB MLESeattle Mariners — 628551 12116035 661766 61 220310439749 220251 2811 331 110 — — — — — —
202528 MLB MLESeattle Mariners — 705610 14924062 801889 144 244339589928 344248 2711 396 154 — — — — — —
202629 MLB MLE2 teams — 547466 8715027 721664 21 187300393693 206217 3013 310 96 — — — — — —
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
202730 MLB MLESEA 100% 575494 10618035 711655 62 215319464784 249239 2912 343 118 +13 +0 +13 +10 +12 4.0
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
202730 MLB CTXSEA 100% 445383 8114026 551284 41 212317455772 243236 2912 339 118 +10 +0 +10 +8 +10 3.8
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
202831 MLB MLESEA 100% 426367 7713025 521244 11 210314453767 243234 2912 337 114 +7 -0 +7 +8 +9 3.1
202932 MLB MLESEA 100% 407352 7112023 491213 11 204308439746 235229 3012 329 109 +4 -0 +5 +7 +9 2.6
203033 MLB MLESEA 100% 387335 6711022 461173 10 196299421720 225222 3012 318 102 +1 +0 +4 +7 +8 2.1
203134 MLB MLESEA 100% 341296 558018 401052 00 187289400689 213212 3112 306 93 -3 +0 +3 +6 +7 1.4
203235 MLB MLESEA 100% 235205 365012 27751 00 177277376653 199203 3211 292 84 -5 +0 -0 +4 +5 0.4
202831 MLB CTXSEA 100% 426367 7613025 521244 11 207312444756 237232 2912 333 114 +7 -0 +7 +8 +9 3.1
202932 MLB CTXSEA 100% 407352 7112023 491213 11 201305431736 229226 3012 325 109 +4 -0 +5 +7 +9 2.6
203033 MLB CTXSEA 100% 387335 6410021 461173 10 194297413710 219219 3012 315 102 +1 +0 +4 +7 +8 2.1
203134 MLB CTXSEA 100% 341296 558018 401052 00 185287392679 208210 3112 302 93 -3 +0 +3 +6 +7 1.4
203235 MLB CTXSEA 100% 235205 365012 27751 00 174275369644 194201 3211 288 84 -5 +0 -0 +4 +5 0.4
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career— A+C — 47914170 8731582275 552140235 268 209307446753 237237 2912 331 111 +63 +2 +105 +90 +104 37.1
/ 162G— A+C — 650566 11721037 751905 41 207305440745 233233 2912 331 111 +9 +0 +14 +12 +14 5.0
Career— MLE — 59895273 11302123351 625172047 3711 214303455758 241240 2910 332 111 +73 +2 +115 +98 +113 40.9
/ 162G— MLE — 650572 12223038 681875 41 213302453755 240239 2910 332 111 +9 +0 +14 +12 +14 5.1

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAATacoma Rainiers · 17 PAwOBA .765 → .554 (−211)K% 11.8% → 14.1%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA11.76%÷1.000×1.200——14.12%
BB% (unintentional) /PA11.76%÷1.000×0.690—×0.9727.89%
HBP% /PA5.88%—×0.940—×0.9725.37%
Singles /BIP8.33%÷1.000×0.930—×0.9727.53%
Doubles /BIP0.00%÷1.000×0.830—×0.9720.00%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.000×0.970—×0.9720.00%
Home runs /BIP41.67%÷1.000×0.700—×0.97228.35%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 30 vs a level average of 27.2 → −2.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .765 → .554; ISO 1.071 → .750; BABIP .143 → .105. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAATacoma Rainiers · 30 PAwOBA .342 → .286 (−57)K% 23.3% → 27.5%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA23.33%÷1.020×1.200——27.46%
BB% (unintentional) /PA6.67%÷1.048×0.690—×1.0184.47%
HBP% /PA0.00%—×0.940—×1.0180.00%
Singles /BIP23.81%÷1.013×0.930—×1.01822.25%
Doubles /BIP9.52%÷0.839×0.830—×1.0189.59%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷0.902×0.970—×1.0180.00%
Home runs /BIP4.76%÷1.144×0.700—×1.0182.97%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 129, 1B 103, 2B 68, 3B 80, K 104, BB 110 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .342 → .286; ISO .179 → .135; BABIP .350 → .328. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAATacoma Rainiers · 199 PAwOBA .418 → .358 (−60)K% 12.6% → 15.2%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA12.56%÷0.994×1.200——15.17%
BB% (unintentional) /PA7.04%÷1.045×0.690—×1.0334.80%
HBP% /PA2.01%—×0.940—×1.0331.95%
Singles /BIP17.22%÷0.952×0.930×0.950×1.03316.51%
Doubles /BIP13.91%÷0.989×0.830×0.950×1.03311.45%
Triples /BIP0.66%÷0.977×0.920×0.950×1.0330.61%
Home runs /BIP5.96%÷0.970×0.700—×1.0334.44%

Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 94, 1B 90, 2B 98, 3B 95, K 99, BB 109 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .418 → .358; ISO .284 → .230; BABIP .327 → .289. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 A+Modesto Nuts · 348 PAwOBA .367 → .326 (−41)K% 19.8% → 27.2%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA19.83%÷0.976×1.340——27.22%
BB% (unintentional) /PA8.62%÷1.052×0.710—×0.9985.80%
HBP% /PA0.86%—×0.790—×0.9980.68%
Singles /BIP16.60%÷1.005×0.910×0.950×0.99814.25%
Doubles /BIP7.88%÷1.050×0.820×0.950×0.9985.84%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.022×0.760×0.950×0.9980.00%
Home runs /BIP9.13%÷0.768×0.920—×0.99810.92%

Factors used: league row CAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 54, 1B 101, 2B 110, 3B 104, K 95, BB 110 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .367 → .326; ISO .274 → .287; BABIP .267 → .223. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AAArkansas Travelers · 159 PAwOBA .304 → .270 (−34)K% 29.6% → 35.0%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA29.56%÷1.031×1.220——34.96%
BB% (unintentional) /PA8.18%÷1.010×0.700—×1.0275.82%
HBP% /PA0.00%—×0.870—×1.0270.00%
Singles /BIP20.41%÷0.966×0.920×0.950×1.02718.95%
Doubles /BIP6.12%÷0.916×0.840×0.950×1.0275.48%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷0.922×0.940×0.950×1.0270.00%
Home runs /BIP7.14%÷0.784×0.800—×1.0277.48%

Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 57, 1B 93, 2B 83, 3B 84, K 106, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .304 → .270; ISO .186 → .181; BABIP .286 → .264. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).