Cal Raleigh — OGILVIE

Cal RaleighC Seattle Mariners

Age 29 S/R 6'2" / 235 lbs MLB HR -5% Svc 4.494 · Ctrl thru 2030

2026 ROS PROJECTION297 act + 223 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†vL 125123vR 116

AVG/OBP/SLG.215 / .321 / .461

PA223

HR13

K%29

BB%13

BABIP246

ISO246

MLB%100%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit option yr━ post-control

Tools · Splits · ContractCON 45 / POW 60

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2024-2026

CONTACT45

Whiff%

3912.2%

xwOBA

840.347

POWER60

Barrel%

9016.4

Avg EV

7290.6

Bat Spd

8374.8

EYE40

Chase%

6129.6%

SPEED40

Sprint

1625.8

Platoon Splits2024-2026 · 1457 PA

vs LHP

vs RHP

Edge

408

1049

—

wRC+

138

131

◀L

wOBA

366

356

—

ISO

319

255

◀◀L

BABIP

230

259

▶R

27.2%

27.5%

—

BB%

7.6%

12.3%

▶▶R

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Arb-2

MLB Debut 2021

Service 4.494 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2030

First FA Year 2028

NTCOPT

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext	$7M	+1.3	$10M	+$3M
2027	Ext	$18M	+4.7	$35M	+$19M
2028	Ext	$18M	+4.3	$30M	+$15M
2029	Ext	$18M	+3.8	$24M	+$11M
2030	Ext	$18M	+3.3	$19M	+$8M
Totals		$77M		$118M	+$57M

Options · projected decision
2031	VESTING OPT	$17.5M / $0.0M buyout	—
2032	VESTING OPT	$20.0M / $2.0M buyout	—

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2026 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run below FG-DC by 1-3 WAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2019	22	A+	2 teams	—	507	474	116	18	0	47	28	154	3	4	0	245	291	580	871	335	251	30	6	364	137	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	22	A+	2 teams	—	507	455	114	25	0	29	47	116	3	4	0	251	325	497	821	246	272	23	9	358	132	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	24	AAA	2 teams	—	347	320	78	30	1	10	16	82	5	3	2	244	290	438	728	194	291	24	5	315	99	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	24	AAA	2 teams	—	347	315	82	33	1	11	21	77	5	3	2	260	317	476	793	216	305	22	6	342	120	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	25	MLB	2 teams	—	445	399	87	23	1	29	39	131	2	1	0	218	291	499	790	281	238	29	9	337	116	+8	+0	+16	+8	+13	4.5
2022	25	MLB	2 teams	—	445	398	86	22	1	28	40	129	2	1	0	216	291	487	778	271	236	29	9	335	115	+7	+0	+16	+8	+13	4.5
2023	26	MLB	Seattle Mariners	—	569	513	123	24	1	32	54	158	1	0	0	240	313	478	791	238	281	28	9	339	118	+11	+0	+19	+10	+16	5.8
2023	26	MLB	Seattle Mariners	—	569	513	119	23	1	30	54	158	1	0	0	232	306	456	762	224	273	28	9	335	115	+10	+0	+19	+10	+16	5.6
2024	27	MLB	Seattle Mariners	—	628	546	124	17	0	36	70	176	6	6	1	227	322	456	778	229	259	28	11	331	112	+8	+1	+24	+11	+18	6.3
2024	27	MLB	Seattle Mariners	—	628	546	120	16	0	34	70	176	6	6	1	220	315	436	751	216	251	28	11	331	112	+8	+1	+24	+11	+18	6.3
2025	28	MLB	Seattle Mariners	—	705	596	152	25	0	63	97	188	9	14	4	255	368	614	982	359	256	27	14	398	163	+50	+1	+21	+13	+20	10.6
2025	28	MLB	Seattle Mariners	—	705	596	147	24	0	60	97	188	9	14	4	247	360	589	949	342	248	27	14	407	170	+55	+1	+21	+13	+20	11.2
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	29	MLB	SEA	—	297	257	46	7	0	13	36	94	1	2	1	179	282	358	640	179	216	32	12	284	75	-8	+0	+4	+5	+8	1.0
YTD	29	MLB	SEA	—	297	256	47	7	0	14	37	93	1	2	1	184	289	375	664	191	217	31	12	297	85	-5	+0	+4	+5	+8	1.3
ROS	29	MLB	SEA	100%	223	191	41	8	0	13	28	65	2	3	1	215	321	461	782	246	247	29	13	347	124	+6	+0	+5	+4	+6	2.2
ROS	29	MLB	SEA	100%	223	191	41	8	0	13	28	65	2	3	1	215	321	461	782	246	244	29	13	337	116	+4	+0	+5	+4	+6	2.0
FULL	29	MLB	SEA	—	520	448	87	15	0	26	64	159	3	5	2	194	299	402	701	208	228	31	12	307	93	-4	+0	+9	+9	+15	3.0
TOT	29	MLB	SEA	—	520	448	87	15	0	26	64	159	3	5	2	194	299	402	701	208	228	31	12	311	96	-2	+0	+9	+9	+15	3.2
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	30	MLB	SEA	100%	520	446	97	18	0	31	65	153	4	5	2	217	322	466	789	249	251	29	12	347	124	+14	+0	+9	+9	+15	4.8
2028	31	MLB	SEA	100%	504	432	93	17	0	30	63	150	4	5	2	215	321	463	784	248	247	30	12	343	120	+12	+0	+8	+9	+14	4.4
2029	32	MLB	SEA	100%	489	422	88	16	0	28	61	147	3	4	1	209	313	445	758	237	243	30	12	337	116	+9	+0	+7	+9	+14	3.9
2030	33	MLB	SEA	100%	473	408	84	15	0	27	59	145	3	3	1	206	311	441	752	235	237	31	12	329	110	+5	+0	+6	+8	+13	3.4
2031	34	MLB	SEA	100%	458	395	77	13	0	25	57	143	3	2	1	195	301	418	719	223	228	31	12	319	102	+1	+0	+5	+8	+13	2.8
2032	35	MLB	SEA	100%	406	351	66	11	0	21	50	130	2	1	0	188	293	399	692	211	219	32	12	308	94	-3	+0	+3	+7	+12	1.9
2033	36	MLB	SEA	100%	341	295	52	8	0	17	41	112	2	1	0	176	281	376	657	200	210	33	12	296	84	-6	+0	+1	+6	+10	1.1
2034	37	MLB	SEA	100%	277	240	40	6	0	13	33	93	2	0	0	167	273	354	627	188	201	34	12	283	74	-8	+0	-1	+5	+8	0.4
2035	38	MLB	SEA	100%	213	185	29	4	0	9	25	73	1	0	0	157	261	324	585	168	195	34	12	271	66	-8	+0	-3	+4	+6	-0.2
2027	30	MLB	SEA	100%	520	446	96	18	0	30	65	153	4	5	2	215	320	457	778	242	248	29	12	337	116	+10	+0	+9	+9	+15	4.4
2028	31	MLB	SEA	100%	504	432	92	17	0	29	63	150	4	5	2	213	319	454	772	241	244	30	12	333	113	+8	+0	+8	+9	+14	4.0
2029	32	MLB	SEA	100%	489	422	87	16	0	27	61	147	3	4	1	206	311	436	747	230	240	30	12	327	109	+5	+0	+7	+9	+14	3.5
2030	33	MLB	SEA	100%	473	408	82	14	0	26	59	145	3	3	1	201	306	426	733	225	234	31	12	320	103	+2	+0	+6	+8	+13	3.0
2031	34	MLB	SEA	100%	458	395	76	13	0	24	57	143	3	2	1	192	299	408	706	215	226	31	12	310	96	-2	+0	+5	+8	+13	2.4
2032	35	MLB	SEA	100%	406	351	65	10	0	21	50	130	2	1	0	185	290	393	683	208	217	32	12	300	87	-6	+0	+3	+7	+12	1.7
2033	36	MLB	SEA	100%	341	295	52	8	0	17	41	112	2	1	0	176	281	376	657	200	208	33	12	288	78	-8	+0	+1	+6	+10	0.9
2034	37	MLB	SEA	100%	277	240	40	6	0	13	33	93	2	0	0	167	273	354	627	188	198	34	12	275	69	-10	+0	-1	+5	+8	0.2
2035	38	MLB	SEA	100%	213	185	29	4	0	9	25	73	1	0	0	157	261	324	585	168	193	34	12	264	60	-10	+0	-3	+4	+6	-0.3
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	6369	5529	1149	209	2	362	748	1907	45	45	13	208	307	443	750	235	239	30	12	327	109	+62	+4	+121	+118	+180	49.5
/ 162G	—			—	650	564	117	21	0	37	76	195	5	5	1	207	307	441	748	234	238	30	12	327	109	+6	+1	+12	+12	+18	5.1
Career	—			—	7105	6213	1347	253	3	431	786	2100	52	52	15	217	310	467	776	250	246	30	11	336	115	+120	+4	+121	+127	+201	58.5
/ 162G	—			—	650	568	122	23	0	39	72	192	5	5	1	215	309	461	770	246	243	30	11	336	115	+11	+1	+11	+12	+18	5.4

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2019	22	AA	Arkansas Travelers	—	159	145	33	6	0	7	14	47	0	0	0	228	296	414	709	186	286	30	9	315	99	-0	+0	—	—	+5	0.5
2019	22	A+	Modesto Nuts	—	348	310	81	19	0	22	33	69	3	4	0	261	338	535	874	274	267	20	9	378	148	+19	+1	—	—	+10	3.0
2021	24	MLB	Seattle Mariners	—	148	139	25	12	0	2	7	52	1	0	0	180	224	309	534	129	267	35	5	237	40	-10	+0	+4	+6	+4	0.4
2021	24	AAA	Tacoma Rainiers	—	199	176	57	21	1	9	14	25	4	3	2	324	387	608	995	284	327	13	7	420	179	+18	-0	—	—	+6	2.4
2022	25	MLB	Seattle Mariners	—	415	370	78	20	1	27	38	122	2	1	0	211	288	489	777	278	226	29	9	334	114	+6	+0	+16	+8	+12	4.3
2022	25	AAA	Tacoma Rainiers	—	30	28	8	2	0	1	2	7	0	0	0	286	333	464	798	179	350	23	7	352	128	+1	+0	—	—	+1	0.2
2023	26	MLB	Seattle Mariners	—	569	513	119	23	1	30	54	158	1	0	0	232	306	456	762	224	273	28	9	335	115	+10	+0	+19	+10	+16	5.6
2024	27	MLB	Seattle Mariners	—	628	546	120	16	0	34	70	176	6	6	1	220	315	436	751	216	251	28	11	331	112	+8	+1	+24	+11	+18	6.3
2025	28	MLB	Seattle Mariners	—	705	596	147	24	0	60	97	188	9	14	4	247	360	589	949	342	248	27	14	407	170	+55	+1	+21	+13	+20	11.2
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	2465	2164	489	95	2	153	266	696	19	21	5	226	316	484	800	258	252	28	11	349	125	+70	+2	+82	+48	+70	27.8

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1J.J. Hardylast yr '17 career totals — 13 seasons, 6,309 PA	13	6,309	188	8	256	305	408	+68	+163	40.4	35.7
	/162	664	20	1	256	305	408	+7.1	+17.2	4.3	pk7: 31
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 16 projected seasons	16	6,946	399	51	211	307	449	+78	+231	40.0	35.5
	/162	664	38	5	211	307	449	+7.5	+22.1	3.8	pk7: 31
#2Brandon Crawfordlast yr '24 career totals — 14 seasons, 6,318 PA	14	6,318	147	47	249	318	395	+68	+142	38.9	34.0
	/162	664	15	5	249	318	395	+7.1	+14.9	4.1	pk7: 29
#3Yan Gomeslast yr '24 career totals — 13 seasons, 4,082 PA	13	4,082	137	8	246	295	412	+69	+103	27.4	26.2
#3Yan Gomeslast yr '24 career totals — 13 seasons, 4,082 PA	/162	664	22	1	246	295	412	+11.2	+16.8	4.4	pk7: 25
#4David Rosslast yr '16 career totals — 14 seasons, 2,631 PA	14	2,631	105	3	229	316	422	+47	+157	30.3	25.8
	/162	664	26	1	229	316	422	+11.9	+39.7	7.7	pk7: 21
#5Tyler Flowerslast yr '20 career totals — 10 seasons, 2,741 PA	10	2,741	86	2	238	319	394	+49	+142	27.5	25.8
	/162	664	21	0	238	319	394	+11.9	+34.4	6.7	pk7: 24
#6Mike Zuninolast yr '23 career totals — 11 seasons, 3,098 PA	11	3,098	149	2	199	271	406	+55	+123	22.4	21.9
	/162	664	32	0	199	271	406	+11.9	+26.4	4.8	pk7: 21

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Cal Raleigh (OGILVIE)	29	45	60	40	40	194/299/402	208	228	26	5	31%	12%	96	+3.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
★Yasmani Grandal 2018 · MLB	29	46→56	61→65	36→40	54	249/332/473	224	290	30	2	26%	11%	128	+3.7	250/356/474	224	296	28	4	24%	14%	139	+4.4	239/386/468	229	276	29	2	24%	19%	146	+3.4
●Matt Chapman 2022 · MLB	29	42→52	61→65	44→50	52	229/322/453	224	285	29	4	30%	11%	120	+3.1	236/326/438	202	300	24	6	28%	11%	117	+2.9	246/339/455	209	302	24	10	25%	11%	123	+3.3
✕Jarrod Saltalamacchia 2013 · MLB	28	40→50	59→60	44→40	44	222/284/433	211	272	28	3	30%	8%	99	+1.7	236/312/417	181	323	21	4	31%	10%	105	+2.1	234/317/404	170	327	18	2	32%	10%	100	+1.1
●Mike Zunino 2019 · MLB	28	43→49	64→65	45→30	41	235/303/474	238	306	33	2	34%	7%	118	+3.0	208/278/434	226	271	31	3	35%	7%	98	+1.6	195/276/465	269	236	41	0	37%	9%	103	+0.7
✕Danny Jansen 2023 · MLB	28	44→54	62→65	47→45	53	242/322/468	226	254	31	4	20%	10%	124	+3.4	229/317/431	202	251	27	3	21%	10%	112	+2.6	213/312/402	190	234	25	0	22%	11%	101	+1.0
★Nolan Arenado 2020 · MLB	29	49→56	58→65	42→40	56	260/334/466	206	269	27	3	16%	10%	128	+3.6	258/323/469	211	261	27	4	14%	8%	124	+3.4	268/329/491	223	273	29	3	14%	8%	126	+3.7
✕Brian McCann 2014 · MLB	30	47→57	59→60	43→45	55	252/327/451	199	258	28	3	16%	10%	121	+3.2	236/310/415	179	247	25	2	17%	9%	105	+2.1	230/322/407	176	244	25	1	18%	10%	103	+1.6
✕Travis Shaw 2019 · MLB	29	47→53	62→60	49→45	56	255/341/487	232	278	30	7	21%	11%	136	+4.2	223/318/412	189	269	25	5	26%	11%	108	+2.3	199/299/364	165	249	23	2	29%	11%	84	+0.3
●Sean Murphy 2022 · MLB	27	43→50	57→60	44→30	51	231/321/431	200	275	25	2	26%	10%	114	+2.7	243/334/437	194	284	23	2	22%	10%	121	+3.2	239/335/433	194	278	23	0	22%	10%	117	+2.1
✕Jedd Gyorko 2018 · MLB	29	48→53	59→60	45	50	258/323/465	206	289	29	5	22%	9%	123	+3.3	250/328/424	174	293	22	6	22%	10%	115	+2.7	243/328/405	162	285	21	4	22%	11%	107	+0.8
●Andruw Jones 2008 · MLB	31	43→53	62→70	45→50	56	242/334/473	232	252	31	5	20%	11%	130	+3.8	219/315/418	199	250	25	8	23%	12%	108	+2.3	224/336/465	241	243	32	10	23%	14%	125	+1.7
●Evan Longoria 2014 · MLB	28	49→58	62→65	42→50	55	265/347/501	236	294	30	3	22%	11%	142	+4.6	261/325/454	193	297	24	3	20%	8%	121	+3.2	262/318/461	199	291	24	3	19%	7%	114	+3.0
●Russell Branyan 2004 · MLB	28	44→45	61→70	43→45	50	231/323/455	224	311	29	5	34%	12%	121	+3.2	242/339/482	240	334	31	5	34%	12%	134	+4.1	249/338/514	265	305	37	3	30%	11%	135	+2.9
●Eugenio Suárez 2021 · MLB	30	44→52	67→65	46→50	53	250/341/507	256	288	37	4	27%	11%	141	+4.6	224/315/441	217	279	29	2	30%	11%	115	+2.7	237/316/462	225	292	31	2	29%	8%	117	+3.3
✕David Ross 2007 · MLB	30	43	61→60	47→45	51	235/318/461	225	271	29	3	26%	10%	120	+3.1	225/311/417	192	271	25	3	26%	11%	106	+2.2	270/362/461	191	345	19	0	25%	12%	135	+1.1
✕Bobby Estalella 2003 · MLB	28	42	59→60	45	55	227/322/446	219	268	25	5	26%	12%	118	+3.0	228/312/427	199	295	25	8	30%	10%	109	+2.4	193/291/386	193	253	25	7	33%	12%	89	+0.3
●Mark Bellhorn 2003 · MLB	28	48→56	60→55	46→45	57	250/354/477	227	317	27	8	29%	13%	138	+4.4	241/352/404	163	329	16	8	28%	14%	119	+3.1	230/345/372	142	325	13	6	29%	14%	105	+1.6
✕Geovany Soto 2012 · MLB	29	47→57	54→60	42→30	56	241/334/425	185	288	22	2	24%	12%	117	+2.9	225/299/389	164	278	20	4	26%	9%	93	+1.3	229/301/402	173	302	21	1	30%	9%	95	+0.4
✕Tyrone Taylor 2023 · MLB	29	47→52	59→65	49→55	45	251/312/469	218	289	27	8	24%	6%	120	+3.1	241/293/423	182	289	19	16	23%	5%	100	+1.7	234/285/393	159	286	14	21	23%	5%	85	+0.4
●Torii Hunter 2004 · MLB	29	50→60	58→65	47→55	48	263/318/475	212	284	26	12	18%	7%	124	+3.4	268/328/467	199	292	24	18	17%	8%	126	+3.5	284/355/478	193	317	23	16	17%	9%	133	+3.9