Carter Jensen — OGILVIE

Carter JensenC Kansas City Royals

Age 23 L/R 6'0" / 210 lbs MLB HR -5%BB +4% Svc 0.163 · Ctrl thru 2031 peak 3.7 · 2030

wRC+†128

AVG/OBP/SLG.230 / .304 / .423

PA250

HR10

K%29

BB%9

MLB%100%

Scouting · now → future

HIT

43↗50

PWR

54↗61

SPD

42↘41

FLD

43↗50

EYE

53↗58

trajectory · 10 yrs

3.4peak

2029

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2025

Service 0.163 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2031

First FA Year 2027

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+2.2	$18M	+$17M
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+3.3	$27M	+$26M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+3.5	$30M	+$29M
2029	Arb-1	$7M	+3.6	$31M	+$24M
2030	Arb-2	$13M	+3.7	$33M	+$21M
2031	Arb-3	$18M	+3.5	$32M	+$14M
Totals		$40M		$172M	+$132M

Career Projections (MLE)

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2021	18	ROK	ACL Royals Gold	67	61	12	2	1	1	6	29	0	4	0	.197	.269	.311	.580	.115	.355	43	9	.236	39	-5	+1	+0	+1	+2	-0.1
2022	19	A	Columbia Fireflies	485	427	73	19	2	9	49	154	4	8	6	.171	.263	.288	.551	.117	.238	32	10	.245	46	-30	-1	+0	+9	+14	-0.8
2023	20	A+	Quad Cities River Bandits	497	419	71	16	4	8	72	151	1	11	1	.169	.293	.284	.577	.115	.238	30	14	.266	62	-21	+2	+0	+9	+14	0.3
2024	21	A+	3 teams	601	531	110	17	6	18	55	178	6	18	3	.207	.289	.363	.652	.156	.267	30	9	.286	77	-15	+2	+0	+11	+17	1.5
2025	22	AA	4 teams	598	539	130	23	6	21	53	173	1	10	1	.241	.310	.423	.733	.182	.312	29	9	.317	101	+0	+2	+0	+11	+17	3.1
▸ 2026 Season (actual · ROS · total)
2026	23	MLB	Kansas City Royals	79	69	19	2	0	6	8	22	1	0	0	.275	.359	.565	.924	.290	.310	28	10	.392	158	+5	+0	+1	+1	+2	1.0
ROS	23	MLB	KC	171	152	36	6	1	8	16	49	1	2	1	.237	.314	.447	.761	.211	.294	29	9	.334	113	+3	+0	+1	+3	+5	1.2
TOT	23	MLB	KC	250	221	55	8	1	14	24	71	2	2	1	.249	.328	.484	.812	.235	.297	28	10	.352	128	+8	+0	+2	+4	+7	2.2
▸ 2027+ Projections — Projections at projected PA · Park-neutral MLB equivalent · Marcel + aging curve
2027	24	MLB	KC	520	463	111	19	4	22	49	143	3	7	2	.240	.317	.441	.757	.201	.291	28	9	.329	110	+6	+1	+2	+9	+15	3.4
2028	25	MLB	KC	520	462	111	19	3	22	50	140	3	7	2	.240	.318	.437	.756	.197	.292	27	10	.334	113	+8	+1	+2	+9	+15	3.6
2029	26	MLB	KC	520	462	111	19	3	22	50	139	3	7	2	.240	.318	.437	.756	.197	.293	27	10	.336	115	+9	+1	+2	+9	+15	3.7
2030	27	MLB	KC	520	461	111	19	3	22	51	139	3	7	1	.241	.320	.438	.759	.197	.293	27	10	.336	115	+9	+1	+2	+9	+15	3.7
2031	28	MLB	KC	520	461	111	19	3	22	51	140	3	6	1	.241	.320	.438	.759	.197	.292	27	10	.335	114	+8	+1	+2	+9	+15	3.6
2032	29	MLB	KC	520	461	110	19	3	22	51	141	3	5	1	.239	.318	.436	.754	.197	.292	27	10	.332	113	+7	+1	+1	+9	+15	3.4
2033	30	MLB	KC	520	461	109	18	3	22	51	143	3	4	0	.236	.317	.432	.748	.195	.290	28	10	.329	110	+6	+1	+0	+9	+15	3.2
2034	31	MLB	KC	504	446	104	18	3	20	50	141	3	1	0	.233	.315	.422	.736	.188	.289	28	10	.326	107	+4	+0	-0	+9	+14	2.8
2035	32	MLB	KC	489	435	100	17	3	19	48	139	3	0	0	.230	.311	.414	.724	.184	.287	28	10	.321	104	+2	+0	-1	+9	+14	2.4
2036	33	MLB	KC	473	421	95	16	3	18	46	138	3	0	0	.226	.306	.406	.713	.181	.285	29	10	.315	99	-0	+0	-2	+8	+13	2.0
2037	34	MLB	KC	449	400	87	14	2	16	44	134	2	0	0	.217	.298	.383	.681	.165	.284	30	10	.308	94	-3	+0	-3	+8	+13	1.5
2038	35	MLB	KC	385	343	73	12	2	13	37	119	2	0	0	.213	.293	.373	.666	.160	.281	31	10	.300	88	-5	+0	-4	+7	+11	0.9
2039	36	MLB	KC	321	285	59	9	2	10	31	103	2	0	0	.207	.289	.358	.647	.151	.278	32	10	.291	81	-7	+0	-5	+6	+9	0.3
2040	37	MLB	KC	258	231	46	7	1	8	24	85	1	0	0	.199	.277	.342	.619	.143	.274	33	9	.280	73	-8	+0	-6	+5	+7	-0.2
2041	38	MLB	KC	195	174	33	5	1	5	18	66	1	0	0	.190	.269	.316	.586	.126	.269	34	9	.269	64	-8	+0	-7	+3	+6	-0.6
▸ Career Totals (MLE all levels + projections)
Career	—			9133	8095	1803	313	59	328	902	2644	51	97	21	.223	.305	.398	.702	.175	.285	29	10	.311	96	-41	+11	-14	+163	+259	38.6
/ 162G	—			650	576	128	22	4	23	64	188	4	7	1	.222	.304	.394	.698	.172	.285	29	10	.311	96	-3	+1	-1	+12	+18	2.8

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2021	18	ROK	ACL Royals Gold	67	57	16	2	1	1	10	20	0	4	0	.281	.388	.404	.792	.123	.417	30	15	.360	133	+3	+1	—	—	+2	0.5
2022	19	A	Columbia Fireflies	485	393	89	24	2	11	83	103	4	8	6	.226	.367	.382	.748	.155	.275	21	17	.340	118	+10	-1	—	—	+14	2.3
2023	20	A+	Quad Cities River Bandits	497	399	84	20	4	11	92	120	1	11	1	.211	.360	.363	.723	.153	.267	24	19	.331	111	+6	+2	—	—	+14	2.3
2024	21	AA	Northwest Arkansas Naturals	170	150	35	7	3	8	15	45	1	1	1	.233	.307	.480	.787	.247	.267	26	9	.336	115	+3	-0	—	—	+5	0.8
2024	21	A+	Quad Cities River Bandits	376	310	84	15	3	10	57	83	4	16	2	.271	.391	.435	.826	.165	.333	22	15	.368	140	+17	+2	—	—	+11	3.1
2024	21	INTL	Surprise Saguaros	55	40	17	3	0	4	14	10	1	1	0	.425	.582	.800	1.382	.375	.500	18	25	.577	300	+12	+0	—	—	+2	1.4
2025	22	MLB	Kansas City Royals	69	60	18	6	0	3	9	12	0	0	0	.300	.391	.550	.941	.250	.333	17	13	.411	173	+6	+0	+0	+11	+2	1.9
2025	22	AAA	Omaha Storm Chasers	184	153	44	11	1	14	30	52	0	3	0	.288	.404	.647	1.051	.359	.345	28	16	.446	200	+21	+1	—	—	+5	2.7
2025	22	AA	Northwest Arkansas Naturals	308	274	80	9	4	6	30	70	1	7	1	.292	.364	.420	.784	.128	.368	23	10	.349	125	+9	+1	—	—	+9	1.9
2025	22	INTL	Aguilas Cibaenas	37	29	6	2	0	0	7	12	0	0	0	.207	.361	.276	.637	.069	.333	32	19	.299	87	-1	+0	—	—	+1	0.1
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			69	60	18	6	0	3	9	12	0	0	0	.300	.391	.550	.941	.250	.333	17	13	.411	173	+6	+0	+0	+11	+2	1.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Carter Jensen (OGILVIE)	23	43→50	54→61	42→41	58	.236/.312/.442	.206	.272	11	3	24%	9%	113	+1.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
●Gleyber Torres 2020 · MLB	23	51→54	60	45→50	49	.270/.333/.485	.215	.308	29	8	23%	8%	132	+4.0	.260/.329/.433	.173	.304	21	10	21%	9%	117	+2.9	.258/.343/.395	.138	.293	16	6	17%	11%	111	+2.7
✕Logan O'Hoppe 2023 · MLB	23	44→48	54→60	45	48	.234/.306/.407	.174	.265	23	7	22%	8%	102	+1.8	.237/.300/.419	.182	.286	26	5	26%	7%	102	+1.9	.232/.286/.409	.178	.288	27	2	29%	6%	92	+0.8
●Wilin Rosario 2013 · MLB	24	44→54	58→60	40→45	40	.239/.277/.438	.199	.277	28	5	26%	5%	97	+1.5	.259/.293/.439	.180	.303	23	5	23%	5%	104	+2.0	.263/.294/.428	.165	.309	20	4	22%	4%	96	+1.0
✕MJ Melendez 2023 · MLB	24	40→47	59→60	41→50	53	.221/.306/.429	.207	.257	27	5	26%	11%	107	+2.2	.215/.291/.391	.176	.272	20	8	28%	9%	91	+1.1	.206/.275/.376	.170	.266	19	10	29%	8%	77	+0.1
●Pedro Álvarez 2011 · MLB	24	47	56→65	43→45	45	.243/.304/.437	.194	.319	24	4	31%	8%	108	+2.3	.234/.303/.424	.190	.309	25	3	31%	9%	104	+2.0	.238/.311/.466	.228	.287	33	4	29%	9%	112	+2.3
●Jay Bruce 2010 · MLB	23	48→55	59→65	46→50	45	.255/.310/.468	.212	.300	27	8	25%	7%	118	+3.0	.256/.329/.461	.205	.302	26	8	23%	10%	124	+3.4	.253/.334/.464	.210	.300	26	7	24%	10%	115	+2.9
●Stephen Drew 2006 · AA	23	50→57	56→55	44→45	49	.258/.323/.456	.197	.305	22	7	23%	8%	120	+3.1	.256/.310/.419	.163	.296	16	6	19%	7%	105	+2.1	.269/.330/.445	.176	.304	15	6	16%	8%	113	+2.7
●Miguel Montero 2006 · AA	23	50→60	56→55	45→40	43	.263/.311/.450	.187	.295	25	4	21%	5%	115	+2.7	.246/.307/.407	.161	.275	20	3	18%	7%	102	+1.8	.272/.357/.424	.152	.327	15	0	20%	10%	116	+2.3
✕Jesús Sánchez 2022 · MLB	24	47→53	56→60	45→50	43	.245/.302/.435	.190	.306	25	5	28%	7%	106	+2.2	.246/.311/.434	.188	.309	23	7	27%	8%	110	+2.4	.243/.311/.415	.172	.306	20	10	26%	8%	100	+1.4
●Eric Chavez 2001 · MLB	23	52→54	58→65	45	57	.271/.348/.480	.209	.289	26	5	17%	11%	137	+4.3	.279/.344/.511	.232	.296	29	7	17%	9%	144	+4.8	.276/.364/.507	.231	.291	29	7	16%	12%	138	+4.6
✕Andy LaRoche 2007 · AAA	23	51→55	55	45	49	.263/.323/.444	.181	.296	23	8	20%	8%	118	+3.0	.247/.325/.400	.153	.276	18	7	17%	10%	107	+2.2	.238/.324/.376	.138	.262	15	5	15%	10%	96	+1.2
★Kyle Schwarber 2017 · MLB	24	49→48	58→70	45	51	.252/.336/.457	.205	.320	26	6	29%	11%	126	+3.5	.234/.334/.475	.241	.283	33	4	29%	12%	130	+3.8	.219/.352/.476	.257	.251	36	4	29%	16%	129	+4.4
●Mark Vientos 2023 · MLB	23	46→50	58→60	37→30	39	.239/.294/.437	.198	.328	28	3	35%	7%	104	+2.0	.244/.300/.443	.199	.315	27	2	30%	7%	108	+2.3	.241/.300/.442	.201	.298	27	1	28%	7%	105	+1.8
●Chris Carter 2006 · AA	23	47→57	57→55	38→40	48	.252/.308/.446	.193	.266	26	3	17%	6%	112	+2.6	.261/.314/.421	.160	.288	19	5	16%	7%	108	+2.3	.266/.317/.421	.155	.296	18	4	16%	6%	107	+2.1
●Kyle Manzardo 2023 · AA	23	49→42	59→60	45→40	50	.259/.327/.471	.212	.291	27	4	22%	8%	126	+3.5	.230/.304/.427	.197	.268	24	3	24%	9%	105	+2.1	.219/.300/.420	.201	.252	25	2	24%	9%	99	+1.4
●Wily Mo Peña 2005 · MLB	23	46→51	63→65	47→40	42	.251/.309/.475	.223	.307	33	9	30%	6%	121	+3.2	.261/.317/.472	.211	.342	29	5	31%	7%	123	+3.3	.263/.321/.462	.199	.352	26	2	31%	6%	119	+1.8
●Eloy Jiménez 2020 · MLB	23	49→56	58→65	41→40	42	.262/.304/.464	.202	.306	27	2	24%	5%	115	+2.8	.266/.314/.471	.205	.317	28	2	25%	6%	121	+3.2	.268/.321/.438	.170	.313	23	0	22%	7%	113	+1.7
★Austin Riley 2021 · MLB	24	43→53	59→65	42→40	40	.235/.288/.443	.208	.297	28	3	31%	6%	103	+1.9	.269/.337/.490	.221	.324	29	2	25%	8%	135	+4.2	.273/.345/.498	.224	.325	30	1	25%	8%	136	+4.9
✕Kellen Kulbacki 2009 · A	23	47	55→60	39→30	50	.249/.320/.432	.184	.284	24	4	22%	8%	113	+2.6	.220/.277/.341	.121	.265	13	6	22%	7%	71	-0.3	.187/.230/.256	.070	.229	4	5	20%	5%	25	-0.9
✕Rougned Odor 2017 · MLB	23	48→53	55→60	46→50	42	.253/.292/.440	.187	.277	23	11	19%	4%	104	+2.0	.226/.281/.418	.192	.260	25	13	24%	6%	94	+1.3	.214/.288/.414	.199	.256	27	11	28%	8%	91	+0.8

Contract

Career Projections (MLE) Show advanced cols

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Career Path Comps

Career Projections (MLE)