Carter Jensen — OGILVIE

Carter JensenC Kansas City Royals

Age 23 L/R 6'0" / 210 lbs MLB HR -6% Svc 0.163 · Ctrl thru 2031

2026 ROS PROJECTION346 act + 230 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†108

AVG/OBP/SLG.242 / .315 / .435

PA230

HR9

K%28

BB%9

BABIP304

ISO194

MLB%100%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control

Tools · Splits · ContractCON 50 / POW 60

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2025-2026

CONTACT50

Whiff%

901.8%

xwOBA

540.314

POWER60

Barrel%

7111.3

Avg EV

8691.6

Bat Spd

8575.0

EYE58

Chase%

904.9%

SPEED41

Sprint

5527.7

DEFENSE50

scouting grade only

Platoon Splits2025-2026 · 138 PA

vs LHP

vs RHP

Edge

116

—

wRC+

197

▶▶R

wOBA

298

443

▶▶R

ISO

—

343

—

BABIP

312

362

▶R

13.6%

26.7%

◀◀L

BB%

9.1%

11.2%

▶▶R

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2025

Service 0.163 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2031

First FA Year 2032

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext	$0.3M	+1.2	$10M	+$10M
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+3.2	$24M	+$23M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+3.4	$23M	+$23M
2029	Arb-1	$7M	+3.5	$22M	+$17M
2030	Arb-2	$12M	+3.5	$21M	+$13M
2031	Arb-3	$17M	+3.3	$18M	+$8M
Totals		$38M		$118M	+$93M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2026 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run below FG-DC by 1-3 WAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2021	18	ROK	ACL Royals Gold	—	67	61	11	1	1	1	6	29	0	4	0	180	254	279	532	98	323	43	9	235	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	18	ROK	ACL Royals Gold	—	67	57	16	2	1	1	10	20	0	4	0	281	388	404	792	123	417	30	15	360	133	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	19	A	Columbia Fireflies	—	485	430	66	18	2	7	46	167	4	8	6	153	242	253	495	100	226	34	9	226	31	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	19	A	Columbia Fireflies	—	485	393	89	24	2	11	83	103	4	8	6	226	367	382	748	155	275	21	17	340	118	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	20	A+	Quad Cities River Bandits	—	497	415	69	16	4	8	76	161	1	11	1	166	297	282	579	116	243	32	15	266	62	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	20	A+	Quad Cities River Bandits	—	497	399	84	20	4	11	92	120	1	11	1	211	360	363	723	153	267	24	19	331	111	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	21	A+	3 teams	—	601	530	108	16	5	19	56	182	6	18	3	204	287	360	648	157	263	30	9	287	77	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	21	A+	3 teams	—	601	500	136	25	6	22	86	138	6	18	3	272	385	478	863	206	327	23	14	378	147	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	AA	4 teams	—	598	538	130	24	6	21	54	171	1	10	1	242	312	426	738	184	311	29	9	318	102	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	AA	4 teams	—	598	516	148	28	5	23	76	146	1	10	1	287	379	494	874	207	356	24	13	383	151	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	23	MLB	KC	—	346	309	73	18	0	13	31	101	1	1	0	236	308	421	729	184	300	29	9	314	98	-1	+0	+1	+6	+10	1.7
YTD	23	MLB	KC	—	346	309	73	18	0	13	31	101	1	1	0	236	308	421	729	184	300	29	9	319	103	+1	+0	+1	+6	+10	1.9
ROS	23	MLB	KC	100%	230	206	50	11	1	9	21	64	1	2	0	242	315	435	750	194	301	28	9	327	108	+2	+0	-0	+4	+7	1.3
ROS	23	MLB	KC	100%	231	207	49	10	1	9	21	64	1	2	0	237	310	425	735	188	297	28	9	319	102	+1	+0	-0	+4	+7	1.2
FULL	23	MLB	KC	—	577	516	122	28	1	22	52	165	2	3	0	236	309	422	731	186	299	29	9	316	100	-0	+1	+1	+10	+16	2.9
TOT	23	MLB	KC	—	576	515	123	29	1	22	52	165	2	3	0	239	311	427	737	188	302	29	9	319	102	+2	+1	+1	+10	+16	3.1
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	24	MLB	KC	100%	520	465	113	24	2	21	48	143	2	5	1	243	317	439	755	196	302	28	9	333	113	+7	+1	-0	+9	+15	3.3
2028	25	MLB	KC	100%	520	465	114	24	2	22	48	142	2	5	1	245	318	447	766	202	302	27	9	336	115	+9	+1	-0	+9	+15	3.4
2029	26	MLB	KC	100%	520	464	114	24	2	22	49	142	2	5	1	246	320	448	769	203	302	27	9	338	117	+10	+1	-0	+9	+15	3.5
2030	27	MLB	KC	100%	520	464	114	24	2	22	49	142	2	5	1	246	320	448	769	203	302	27	9	338	117	+10	+1	-0	+9	+15	3.5
2031	28	MLB	KC	100%	520	463	114	24	2	22	50	143	2	4	1	246	322	449	772	203	301	28	10	337	116	+9	+0	-1	+9	+15	3.4
2032	29	MLB	KC	100%	520	463	112	23	2	22	50	144	2	4	1	242	318	443	761	201	300	28	10	335	114	+9	+0	-2	+9	+15	3.2
2033	30	MLB	KC	100%	520	463	111	23	2	21	50	145	2	4	1	240	317	434	751	194	299	28	10	332	112	+7	+0	-2	+9	+15	3.0
2034	31	MLB	KC	100%	504	449	106	22	2	20	48	142	2	3	1	236	313	428	740	192	297	28	10	328	109	+5	+0	-3	+9	+14	2.6
2035	32	MLB	KC	100%	489	437	101	21	1	19	47	140	2	2	1	231	309	414	723	183	293	29	10	322	105	+3	+0	-4	+9	+14	2.2
2036	33	MLB	KC	100%	473	423	95	19	1	18	45	138	2	2	0	225	302	402	704	177	288	29	10	315	99	-0	+0	-4	+8	+13	1.8
2037	34	MLB	KC	96%	439	393	86	17	1	16	42	131	1	1	0	219	296	389	685	170	281	30	10	305	92	-4	+0	-5	+8	+12	1.2
2038	35	MLB	KC	91%	377	338	71	13	1	13	35	115	1	1	0	210	286	370	656	160	274	31	9	295	84	-7	+0	-6	+7	+11	0.5
2027	24	MLB	KC	100%	520	465	111	23	2	20	48	143	2	5	1	239	313	426	738	187	298	28	9	324	106	+4	+1	-0	+9	+15	2.9
2028	25	MLB	KC	100%	520	465	112	23	2	21	48	142	2	5	1	241	315	434	749	194	298	27	9	328	109	+5	+1	-0	+9	+15	3.0
2029	26	MLB	KC	100%	520	464	112	23	2	21	49	142	2	5	1	241	317	435	752	194	298	27	9	329	110	+6	+1	-0	+9	+15	3.1
2030	27	MLB	KC	100%	520	464	112	23	2	21	49	142	2	5	1	241	317	435	752	194	297	27	9	329	110	+6	+1	-0	+9	+15	3.1
2031	28	MLB	KC	100%	520	463	111	23	2	21	50	143	2	4	1	240	317	434	751	194	297	28	10	328	109	+6	+0	-1	+9	+15	3.0
2032	29	MLB	KC	100%	520	463	111	23	2	21	50	144	2	4	1	240	317	434	751	194	296	28	10	327	108	+5	+0	-2	+9	+15	2.8
2033	30	MLB	KC	100%	520	463	111	23	2	21	50	145	2	4	1	240	317	434	751	194	295	28	10	324	106	+4	+0	-2	+9	+15	2.6
2034	31	MLB	KC	100%	504	449	106	22	2	20	48	142	2	3	1	236	313	428	740	192	292	28	10	320	103	+2	+0	-3	+9	+14	2.3
2035	32	MLB	KC	100%	489	437	101	20	2	19	47	140	2	2	1	231	309	416	725	185	289	29	10	315	99	-1	+0	-4	+9	+14	1.9
2036	33	MLB	KC	100%	473	423	94	19	1	17	45	138	2	2	0	222	300	392	692	170	284	29	10	308	94	-3	+0	-4	+8	+13	1.5
2037	34	MLB	KC	96%	419	375	80	15	1	15	40	125	1	1	0	213	291	379	670	165	277	30	10	299	87	-6	+0	-5	+7	+12	0.9
2038	35	MLB	KC	91%	343	307	65	12	1	12	32	105	1	1	0	212	288	375	663	163	270	31	9	288	79	-8	+0	-5	+6	+10	0.3
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	6168	5505	1293	265	22	241	586	1727	23	43	9	235	311	422	733	187	295	28	10	321	103	+24	+5	-27	+120	+175	30.3
/ 162G	—			—	650	580	136	28	2	25	62	182	2	5	1	234	310	419	729	184	295	28	10	321	103	+3	+1	-3	+13	+18	3.2
Career	—			—	8400	7467	1685	344	39	303	820	2441	35	94	20	226	305	404	709	178	289	29	10	314	98	-18	+11	-28	+150	+238	36.0
/ 162G	—			—	650	578	130	27	3	23	63	189	3	7	2	225	304	401	706	176	289	29	10	314	98	-1	+1	-2	+12	+18	2.8

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2021	18	ROK	ACL Royals Gold	—	67	57	16	2	1	1	10	20	0	4	0	281	388	404	792	123	417	30	15	360	133	+3	+1	—	—	+2	0.5
2022	19	A	Columbia Fireflies	—	485	393	89	24	2	11	83	103	4	8	6	226	367	382	748	155	275	21	17	340	118	+10	-1	—	—	+14	2.3
2023	20	A+	Quad Cities River Bandits	—	497	399	84	20	4	11	92	120	1	11	1	211	360	363	723	153	267	24	19	331	111	+6	+2	—	—	+14	2.3
2024	21	AA	Northwest Arkansas Naturals	—	170	150	35	7	3	8	15	45	1	1	1	233	307	480	787	247	267	26	9	336	115	+3	-0	—	—	+5	0.8
2024	21	A+	Quad Cities River Bandits	—	376	310	84	15	3	10	57	83	4	16	2	271	391	435	826	165	333	22	15	368	140	+17	+2	—	—	+11	3.1
2024	21	INTL	Surprise Saguaros	—	55	40	17	3	0	4	14	10	1	1	0	425	582	800	1.382	375	500	18	25	577	300	+12	+0	—	—	+2	1.4
2025	22	MLB	Kansas City Royals	—	69	60	18	6	0	3	9	12	0	0	0	300	391	550	941	250	333	17	13	411	173	+6	+0	+0	+11	+2	1.9
2025	22	AAA	Omaha Storm Chasers	—	184	153	44	11	1	14	30	52	0	3	0	288	404	647	1.051	359	345	28	16	446	200	+21	+1	—	—	+5	2.7
2025	22	AA	Northwest Arkansas Naturals	—	308	274	80	9	4	6	30	70	1	7	1	292	364	420	784	128	368	23	10	349	125	+9	+1	—	—	+9	1.9
2025	22	INTL	Aguilas Cibaenas	—	37	29	6	2	0	0	7	12	0	0	0	207	361	276	637	69	333	32	19	299	87	-1	+0	—	—	+1	0.1
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	69	60	18	6	0	3	9	12	0	0	0	300	391	550	941	250	333	17	13	411	173	+6	+0	+0	+11	+2	1.9

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Asdrúbal Cabreralast yr '21 career totals — 15 seasons, 7,401 PA	15	7,401	195	91	266	329	423	+58	+11	38.2	32.2
	/162	664	17	8	266	329	423	+5.2	+1.0	3.4	pk7: 26
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 15 projected seasons	15	6,803	273	47	240	312	433	+109	+14	38.4	31.0
	/162	664	27	5	240	312	433	+10.7	+1.4	3.7	pk7: 24
#2Jason Variteklast yr '11 career totals — 12 seasons, 5,047 PA	12	5,047	166	22	255	343	431	+61	+15	33.1	30.8
	/162	664	22	3	255	343	431	+8.0	+1.9	4.4	pk7: 28
#3Ramon Hernandezlast yr '13 career totals — 14 seasons, 5,543 PA	14	5,543	166	8	263	326	418	+65	+57	33.7	30.7
	/162	664	20	1	263	326	418	+7.7	+6.9	4.0	pk7: 28
#4Matt Wieterslast yr '19 career totals — 11 seasons, 4,387 PA	11	4,387	146	9	250	313	411	+78	+81	30.0	28.4
	/162	664	22	1	250	313	411	+11.9	+12.2	4.5	pk7: 27
#5Stephen Drewlast yr '17 career totals — 12 seasons, 4,917 PA	12	4,917	123	41	252	318	423	+48	+35	26.2	25.1
	/162	664	17	6	252	318	423	+6.5	+4.7	3.5	pk7: 24
#6John Bucklast yr '14 career totals — 11 seasons, 4,009 PA	11	4,009	134	6	234	301	398	+72	+7	16.9	15.7
#6John Bucklast yr '14 career totals — 11 seasons, 4,009 PA	/162	664	22	1	234	301	398	+11.9	+1.2	2.8	pk7: 14

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Carter Jensen (OGILVIE)	23	44→50	55→60	41	58	239/311/427	188	302	22	3	29%	9%	102	+3.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
●Stephen Drew 2006 · AA	23	50→57	56→55	43→45	49	260/325/460	200	306	23	7	23%	8%	122	+3.3	256/311/418	162	295	16	6	18%	7%	105	+2.1	272/332/455	183	307	15	6	16%	8%	117	+3.0
●Pedro Álvarez 2011 · MLB	24	46	56→60	42→45	44	239/302/433	194	316	24	4	31%	8%	105	+2.1	232/302/422	190	306	24	3	31%	9%	103	+1.9	238/310/455	217	291	31	4	29%	9%	108	+2.1
✕Brett Baty 2023 · MLB	23	55→58	56→55	40→45	43	274/336/464	191	364	25	5	30%	7%	128	+3.7	239/305/401	162	305	22	5	28%	8%	99	+1.7	228/297/384	156	281	22	5	27%	8%	89	+0.7
✕Max Ramirez 2009 · MLB	24	52	53→55	44→40	49	260/341/437	178	335	21	3	28%	10%	123	+3.3	223/295/347	124	305	14	3	30%	8%	81	+0.4	247/320/393	145	287	16	2	19%	9%	101	+1.0
✕Logan O'Hoppe 2023 · MLB	23	44→48	52→60	45	49	231/306/395	163	263	22	7	22%	8%	98	+1.6	237/300/420	183	287	26	5	27%	7%	102	+1.9	232/287/415	183	287	28	2	29%	6%	94	+0.9
●Colby Rasmus 2011 · MLB	24	50→55	54→60	46→50	51	255/327/437	182	307	22	11	24%	10%	117	+2.9	240/310/423	183	291	21	6	24%	9%	106	+2.2	241/308/459	219	314	28	3	32%	8%	113	+2.0
●Devin Mesoraco 2011 · AAA	23	43→49	52→60	41→40	43	226/283/398	171	279	20	3	27%	6%	89	+0.9	228/283/384	156	267	17	3	21%	7%	85	+0.7	233/324/433	200	262	26	1	22%	9%	110	+1.3
●Miguel Montero 2007 · MLB	24	49→59	52→55	38→40	46	253/309/416	163	280	21	3	19%	6%	105	+2.1	250/315/414	164	281	19	3	18%	8%	106	+2.2	273/358/433	160	327	16	0	20%	10%	120	+2.6
✕Travis Snider 2011 · MLB	23	48→53	56→60	43→50	44	249/306/441	192	315	24	8	29%	8%	110	+2.4	247/304/388	141	315	14	13	25%	7%	95	+1.4	250/320/395	145	307	17	5	23%	9%	99	+1.1
●Nomar Mazara 2018 · MLB	23	50→51	51→55	40	49	252/316/408	156	292	19	3	21%	8%	105	+2.1	254/314/423	169	303	20	4	22%	7%	108	+2.3	253/312/420	168	304	20	3	23%	7%	103	+1.2
✕Andy LaRoche 2007 · AAA	23	51→55	54→55	45	49	265/326/442	177	297	22	8	20%	8%	118	+3.0	245/325/394	149	274	17	7	17%	10%	105	+2.1	238/324/376	138	263	15	5	15%	10%	96	+1.2
●Josh Jung 2022 · AAA	24	53→51	55→60	45	43	269/321/459	190	327	22	6	25%	6%	121	+3.2	251/297/444	193	324	25	6	30%	5%	107	+2.2	262/312/407	145	321	17	5	23%	6%	101	+1.1
●Gleyber Torres 2019 · MLB	22	50→53	53→60	46→50	47	255/321/428	172	316	21	10	26%	8%	112	+2.6	261/329/443	182	303	24	9	22%	9%	120	+3.1	259/345/399	140	294	17	6	17%	11%	113	+2.9
✕Ryan Lavarnway 2012 · MLB	24	44→45	56→55	43→30	45	232/300/419	187	290	25	2	29%	8%	102	+1.9	233/293/348	115	287	12	3	22%	7%	79	+0.3	231/300/392	161	282	20	0	25%	7%	90	+0.4
●Jedd Gyorko 2013 · AAA	24	48→53	55→60	44→45	42	251/295/432	180	298	24	6	25%	6%	103	+1.9	245/299/418	173	290	22	4	23%	7%	101	+1.8	257/331/460	203	288	28	4	21%	10%	123	+2.4
●Paul DeJong 2018 · MLB	24	48→50	56→60	43→45	38	251/294/444	193	318	25	4	30%	5%	105	+2.1	243/311/438	195	294	25	5	26%	8%	111	+2.5	236/316/425	190	280	24	5	24%	9%	108	+1.7
✕Chris Snyder 2005 · MLB	24	48→44	56→55	48→30	54	249/328/443	194	289	24	7	23%	10%	119	+3.1	234/319/373	139	281	15	3	21%	10%	98	+1.6	245/343/427	182	283	21	0	21%	12%	113	+1.5
●Gary Sánchez 2016 · AAA	23	46→50	50→65	45	42	238/283/390	152	290	19	6	25%	6%	86	+0.8	248/311/456	208	284	28	6	23%	7%	116	+2.8	240/315/464	224	265	32	4	23%	9%	117	+2.4
●Jay Bruce 2010 · MLB	23	47→54	59→65	45→50	46	253/310/466	213	291	27	9	24%	7%	118	+3.0	255/330/467	212	298	27	8	23%	10%	126	+3.5	254/334/472	219	297	28	7	24%	10%	119	+3.1
●MJ Melendez 2023 · MLB	24	41→49	59→60	42→50	53	226/311/438	212	261	28	5	26%	11%	111	+2.5	221/295/404	183	280	21	8	28%	9%	95	+1.4	210/280/390	179	271	20	10	29%	8%	83	+0.5