Isaac Paredes — OGILVIE

Isaac Paredes3B Houston Astros

Age 27 R/R 5'11" / 213 lbs MLB HR +6% Svc 4.930 · Ctrl thru 2027

2026 ROS PROJECTION384 act + 256 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†vL 135130vR 117

AVG/OBP/SLG.241 / .343 / .414

PA256

HR9

K%16

BB%10

BABIP259

ISO173

MLB%100%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit option yr━ post-control

Tools · Splits · ContractCON 45 / POW 40

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2024-2026

CONTACT45

Whiff%

904.9%

xwOBA

550.314

POWER40

Barrel%

285.4

Avg EV

1286.2

Bat Spd

1367.4

EYE55

Chase%

9020.7%

SPEED35

Sprint

1025.0

Platoon Splits2024-2026 · 1169 PA

vs LHP

vs RHP

Edge

259

910

—

wRC+

131

113

◀L

wOBA

356

334

◀L

ISO

178

169

◀L

BABIP

286

255

◀L

15.1%

17.5%

◀L

BB%

9.7%

11.8%

▶▶R

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Arb-2

MLB Debut 2020

Service 4.930 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2027

First FA Year 2028

OPT

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext	$4M	+1.2	$10M	+$6M
2027	Arb-3	$12M	+2.4	$18M	+$7M
Totals		$16M		$28M	+$13M

Options · projected decision
2027	CLUB OPT	$12.3M / $0.0M buyout	EXERCISE
2028	CLUB OPT	$13.3M / $0.0M buyout	EXERCISE
2029	CLUB OPT	$12.3M / $0.0M buyout	EXERCISE

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2016	17	ROK	AZL Cubs	—	185	172	40	10	2	1	8	29	2	4	0	233	275	331	606	99	271	16	4	258	56	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	17	ROK	AZL Cubs	—	185	167	51	14	3	1	13	20	2	4	0	305	363	443	806	138	338	11	7	353	128	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	18	A	2 teams	—	578	520	102	26	0	14	33	106	19	3	2	196	269	327	596	131	218	18	6	259	56	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	18	A	2 teams	—	578	506	134	35	0	12	47	72	19	3	2	265	350	405	755	140	286	12	8	338	117	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	19	A+	3 teams	—	688	615	142	35	2	12	44	147	16	2	5	231	299	353	652	122	278	21	6	283	75	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	19	A+	3 teams	—	688	580	155	37	3	19	79	99	16	2	5	267	370	440	810	172	288	14	11	357	131	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	20	AA	2 teams	—	809	730	174	25	1	11	53	116	18	6	4	238	306	321	626	82	267	14	7	278	71	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	20	AA	2 teams	—	809	697	195	30	3	17	86	92	18	6	4	280	373	405	778	125	299	11	11	350	126	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	21	INTL	2 teams	—	307	279	65	12	0	3	23	68	3	5	0	233	298	308	607	75	295	22	7	266	62	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	21	INTL	2 teams	—	307	265	79	21	1	5	37	40	3	5	0	298	390	442	832	143	333	13	12	372	142	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	22	AAA	3 teams	—	581	503	116	17	4	15	67	98	5	0	0	231	327	370	697	139	255	17	12	306	93	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	22	AAA	3 teams	—	581	467	122	19	3	16	103	78	5	0	0	261	400	418	818	156	280	13	18	368	140	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	23	MLB	3 teams	—	595	518	108	26	1	29	63	108	8	0	2	208	304	431	734	222	204	18	11	320	103	+2	-1	+4	+2	+17	2.5
2022	23	MLB	3 teams	—	595	506	103	26	1	26	75	102	8	0	2	204	316	413	729	209	201	17	13	324	106	+4	-1	+4	+2	+17	2.6
2023	24	MLB	2 teams	—	656	564	142	29	0	38	67	119	21	1	0	252	353	505	858	254	253	18	10	372	143	+32	+0	-0	+2	+19	5.4
2023	24	MLB	2 teams	—	656	554	145	29	1	34	77	110	21	1	0	262	373	502	875	240	268	17	12	384	152	+39	+0	-0	+2	+19	6.1
2024	25	MLB	2 teams	—	680	574	136	26	1	20	81	111	18	1	1	237	349	390	739	153	258	16	12	326	108	+6	-0	-0	+2	+19	2.8
2024	25	MLB	2 teams	—	680	571	137	28	1	19	84	108	18	1	1	240	355	392	747	152	262	16	12	337	116	+13	-0	-0	+2	+19	3.5
2025	26	MLB	2 teams	—	472	405	100	15	1	20	54	82	11	0	1	247	351	437	788	190	262	17	11	347	124	+13	-0	-2	+2	+13	2.6
2025	26	MLB	2 teams	—	472	402	103	16	1	20	57	78	11	0	1	256	364	450	814	194	271	17	12	363	136	+19	-0	-2	+2	+13	3.3
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	27	MLB	HOU	—	384	331	84	18	0	12	37	61	13	0	0	254	352	417	769	163	276	16	10	341	119	+8	+0	-1	+1	+11	1.9
YTD	27	MLB	HOU	—	384	331	84	18	0	12	37	61	13	0	0	254	352	417	769	163	276	16	10	345	122	+9	+0	-1	+1	+11	2.1
ROS	27	MLB	HOU	100%	256	220	53	11	0	9	26	42	8	0	0	241	343	414	756	173	253	16	10	335	114	+4	+0	-1	+1	+7	1.1
ROS	27	MLB	HOU	100%	256	220	53	11	0	9	26	42	8	0	0	241	343	414	756	173	256	16	10	317	101	+0	+0	-1	+1	+7	0.7
FULL	27	MLB	HOU	—	640	551	137	29	0	21	63	103	21	0	0	249	348	416	764	167	269	16	10	331	112	+8	+0	-3	+2	+18	2.7
TOT	27	MLB	HOU	—	640	551	137	29	0	21	63	103	21	0	0	249	348	416	764	167	269	16	10	338	117	+12	+0	-3	+2	+18	3.1
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	28	MLB	HOU	100%	628	540	125	25	1	21	65	103	18	1	0	231	334	398	732	167	248	16	10	331	111	+8	+0	-3	+2	+18	2.5
2028	29	MLB	HOU	100%	616	529	123	25	0	21	64	102	18	1	0	233	336	399	734	166	248	17	10	329	110	+7	+0	-4	+2	+17	2.3
2029	30	MLB	HOU	100%	603	518	119	24	0	20	63	102	17	1	0	230	333	392	725	162	246	17	10	326	108	+5	+0	-5	+2	+17	2.0
2030	31	MLB	HOU	100%	591	507	114	23	0	19	62	102	17	1	0	225	329	383	712	158	243	17	10	321	104	+3	+0	-5	+2	+17	1.7
2031	32	MLB	HOU	100%	579	497	109	21	0	18	60	102	17	0	0	219	324	370	694	151	238	18	10	314	99	-1	+0	-6	+2	+16	1.2
2032	33	MLB	HOU	100%	500	430	91	17	0	15	52	90	14	0	0	212	317	356	672	144	233	18	10	306	92	-4	+0	-6	+2	+14	0.5
2033	34	MLB	HOU	100%	422	363	74	13	0	12	44	79	12	0	0	204	310	339	649	135	225	19	10	296	85	-7	+0	-7	+2	+12	-0.1
2034	35	MLB	HOU	100%	357	307	59	10	0	9	37	70	10	0	0	192	299	313	612	121	217	20	10	284	76	-10	+0	-7	+1	+10	-0.6
2027	28	MLB	HOU	100%	628	540	128	26	1	22	65	103	18	1	0	237	339	411	750	174	251	16	10	313	98	-1	+0	-3	+2	+18	1.6
2028	29	MLB	HOU	100%	616	529	123	25	0	21	64	102	18	1	0	233	336	399	734	166	250	17	10	311	96	-2	+0	-4	+2	+17	1.4
2029	30	MLB	HOU	100%	603	518	119	24	0	20	63	102	17	1	0	230	333	392	725	162	249	17	10	308	94	-4	+0	-5	+2	+17	1.1
2030	31	MLB	HOU	100%	591	507	115	23	0	19	62	102	17	1	0	227	331	385	716	158	245	17	10	304	91	-6	+0	-5	+2	+17	0.8
2031	32	MLB	HOU	100%	579	497	110	22	0	18	60	102	17	0	0	221	326	374	700	153	241	18	10	297	85	-10	+0	-6	+2	+16	0.3
2032	33	MLB	HOU	100%	500	430	93	18	0	15	52	90	14	0	0	216	321	363	683	147	235	18	10	289	79	-12	+0	-6	+2	+14	-0.2
2033	34	MLB	HOU	100%	422	363	75	14	0	12	44	79	12	0	0	207	313	344	657	138	227	19	10	278	71	-14	+0	-7	+2	+12	-0.7
2034	35	MLB	HOU	100%	357	307	60	10	0	10	37	70	10	0	0	195	302	326	628	130	219	20	10	267	62	-15	+0	-7	+1	+10	-1.1
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	6776	5826	1329	260	4	238	719	1179	181	6	3	228	331	397	728	169	245	17	11	314	98	-14	+0	-43	+28	+192	16.6
/ 162G	—			—	650	559	127	25	0	23	69	113	17	1	0	227	330	395	725	168	244	17	11	314	98	-1	+0	-4	+3	+18	1.6
Career	—			—	10103	8791	1992	390	13	307	966	1776	252	26	15	227	321	379	699	152	248	18	10	311	96	-44	-1	-43	+36	+286	23.9
/ 162G	—			—	650	566	128	25	1	20	62	114	16	2	1	226	320	380	700	154	247	18	10	311	96	-3	+0	-3	+2	+18	1.5

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2016	17	ROK	AZL Cubs	—	185	167	51	14	3	1	13	20	2	4	0	305	363	443	806	138	338	11	7	353	128	+6	+1	—	—	+5	1.2
2017	18	A	West Michigan Whitecaps	—	517	452	114	28	0	11	42	67	18	2	1	252	340	387	727	135	273	13	8	327	109	+5	+0	—	—	+15	2.0
2017	18	INTL	Yaquis de Obregon	—	61	54	20	7	0	1	5	5	1	1	1	370	433	556	989	185	388	8	8	429	186	+6	-0	—	—	+2	0.8
2018	19	AA	Erie SeaWolves	—	155	131	42	9	0	3	19	22	2	1	0	321	414	458	872	137	358	14	12	385	153	+9	+0	—	—	+4	1.4
2018	19	A+	Lakeland Flying Tigers	—	347	301	78	19	2	12	32	54	7	1	0	259	344	455	799	196	274	16	9	348	125	+10	+0	—	—	+10	2.0
2018	19	INTL	Yaquis de Obregon	—	186	148	35	9	1	4	28	23	7	0	5	236	383	392	774	155	252	12	15	350	126	+6	-2	—	—	+5	0.9
2019	20	AA	Erie SeaWolves	—	552	478	135	23	1	13	57	61	11	5	3	282	372	416	788	134	298	11	10	353	128	+18	-0	—	—	+16	3.4
2019	20	INTL	Yaquis de Obregon	—	257	219	60	7	2	4	29	31	7	1	1	274	376	379	755	105	301	12	11	344	122	+6	-0	—	—	+7	1.4
2020	21	MLB	Detroit Tigers	—	108	100	22	4	0	1	8	24	0	0	0	220	278	290	568	70	280	22	7	261	58	-5	+0	-2	+1	+3	-0.3
2020	21	INTL	Mexico	—	199	165	57	17	1	4	29	16	3	5	0	345	452	533	985	188	361	8	15	432	188	+20	+1	—	—	+6	2.7
2021	22	MLB	Detroit Tigers	—	85	72	15	3	1	1	10	11	1	0	0	208	313	319	633	111	226	13	12	286	77	-2	+0	+2	+2	+2	0.4
2021	22	AAA	Toledo Mud Hens	—	315	253	67	10	2	11	56	47	2	0	0	265	402	451	853	186	281	15	18	379	148	+17	+0	—	—	+9	2.7
2021	22	INTL	Venados de Mazatlan	—	181	142	40	6	0	4	37	20	2	0	0	282	436	408	845	127	305	11	20	389	156	+11	+0	—	—	+5	1.7
2022	23	MLB	Tampa Bay Rays	—	381	331	68	16	0	20	44	67	4	0	1	205	306	435	741	230	195	18	12	327	109	+4	-0	+4	+2	+11	2.0
2022	23	AAA	Durham Bulls	—	113	95	25	7	1	4	13	19	2	0	1	263	364	484	848	221	280	17	12	365	137	+5	-0	—	—	+3	0.8
2022	23	INTL	Naranjeros de Hermosillo	—	101	80	10	3	0	2	18	16	2	0	0	125	300	237	537	112	127	16	18	263	59	-5	+0	—	—	+3	-0.2
2023	24	MLB	Tampa Bay Rays	—	571	492	123	24	0	31	58	104	20	1	0	250	353	488	840	238	257	18	10	371	142	+27	+0	-0	+2	+16	4.7
2023	24	INTL	Naranjeros de Hermosillo	—	85	62	22	5	1	3	19	6	1	0	0	355	512	613	1.125	258	339	7	22	471	219	+11	+0	—	—	+2	1.4
2024	25	MLB	Chicago Cubs	—	641	542	129	25	1	19	76	105	17	1	1	238	350	393	743	155	259	16	12	335	115	+11	-0	-0	+2	+18	3.1
2024	25	INTL	Naranjeros de Hermosillo	—	39	29	8	3	0	0	8	3	1	0	0	276	447	379	827	103	296	8	21	377	146	+2	+0	—	—	+1	0.3
2025	26	MLB	Houston Astros	—	438	378	96	15	1	20	50	76	8	0	1	254	353	458	811	204	268	17	11	360	133	+17	-0	-2	+2	+12	2.9
2025	26	INTL	Naranjeros de Hermosillo	—	34	24	7	1	0	0	7	2	3	0	0	292	500	333	833	42	318	6	21	406	169	+3	+0	—	—	+1	0.4
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	2224	1915	453	87	3	92	246	387	50	2	3	237	339	429	768	193	249	17	11	342	120	+51	-1	+1	+12	+63	12.8

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 16 projected seasons	16	7,532	261	7	229	329	397	+27	+4	28.8	24.8
	/162	664	23	1	229	329	397	+2.4	+0.4	2.5	pk7: 21
#1Jed Lowrielast yr '22 career totals — 13 seasons, 5,188 PA	13	5,188	121	8	257	330	407	+31	+28	25.3	24.5
	/162	664	15	1	257	330	407	+4.0	+3.5	3.2	pk7: 24
#2Mike Moustakaslast yr '23 career totals — 13 seasons, 5,577 PA	13	5,577	215	21	247	307	431	+14	+18	22.8	22.1
	/162	664	26	3	247	307	431	+1.6	+2.1	2.7	pk7: 21
#3Kelly Johnsonlast yr '16 career totals — 11 seasons, 5,139 PA	11	5,139	155	87	251	330	422	+8	-3	22.3	21.3
	/162	664	20	11	251	330	422	+1.0	-0.4	2.9	pk7: 20
#4Eduardo Escobarlast yr '23 career totals — 12 seasons, 5,114 PA	12	5,114	164	23	253	305	430	+29	+16	21.1	21.1
	/162	664	21	3	253	305	430	+3.7	+2.0	2.7	pk7: 21
#5Chris Younglast yr '18 career totals — 13 seasons, 5,316 PA	13	5,316	191	142	235	314	428	-0	+3	21.3	20.7
	/162	664	24	18	235	314	428	-0.0	+0.4	2.7	pk7: 20
#6Luis Valbuenalast yr '18 career totals — 10 seasons, 3,527 PA	10	3,527	113	10	226	311	395	+13	+1	10.5	11.2
	/162	664	21	2	226	311	395	+2.4	+0.1	2.0	pk7: 12

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Isaac Paredes (OGILVIE)	27	45	40	35	55	249/348/416	167	269	21	0	16%	10%	117	+3.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Chris Snyder 2008 · MLB	27	49→44	50→55	39→30	55	246/332/403	157	279	18	2	19%	10%	111	+2.5	232/337/414	182	276	22	2	23%	13%	116	+2.8	214/333/396	182	255	23	0	25%	14%	98	+0.9
●J.J. Hardy 2010 · MLB	27	50→55	52→55	41→30	52	255/314/418	164	275	20	2	16%	8%	107	+2.2	249/301/407	158	271	19	2	16%	7%	98	+1.6	244/288/408	164	252	22	1	14%	6%	89	+1.0
✕Nick Hundley 2011 · MLB	27	47→46	50→55	39→40	48	237/299/401	163	286	17	5	24%	8%	95	+1.4	238/299/391	153	299	16	4	25%	7%	93	+1.3	241/291/409	168	298	18	1	25%	6%	89	+0.5
✕Carson Kelly 2020 · MLB	26	45→47	51→55	43→40	56	233/321/395	162	264	19	2	20%	11%	105	+2.1	231/315/396	165	266	20	3	21%	10%	102	+1.8	248/332/397	148	279	19	1	18%	10%	107	+1.2
●Joe Crede 2005 · MLB	27	48→53	54→60	38→30	48	249/303/427	178	258	22	2	15%	6%	105	+2.1	257/306/449	192	259	26	2	13%	6%	112	+2.6	258/305/453	194	255	27	0	12%	5%	110	+1.6
✕Devin Mesoraco 2015 · MLB	27	47→49	56→60	35→40	50	250/323/441	191	280	24	3	21%	8%	117	+2.9	230/314/393	163	269	19	6	22%	9%	101	+1.8	206/298/365	159	231	21	1	21%	9%	83	+0.2
●Matthew LeCroy 2003 · MLB	27	49	54→55	38→30	48	253/307/438	185	284	21	4	20%	7%	109	+2.4	271/331/457	186	317	24	3	22%	7%	124	+3.4	272/340/454	182	319	26	0	22%	8%	124	+1.9
●Fernando Tatis 2003 · MLB	28	46→54	52→55	41→45	52	239/324/409	170	280	20	4	22%	10%	109	+2.4	226/304/358	132	270	14	8	21%	9%	87	+0.8	250/318/422	172	288	19	6	20%	8%	105	+1.6
●Robinson Chirinos 2011 · AAA	27	50→46	53→60	39→50	51	257/329/436	179	284	20	4	18%	8%	118	+3.0	236/304/369	133	286	14	4	22%	8%	90	+1.0	230/343/435	205	296	26	2	29%	11%	122	+2.1
●Jedd Gyorko 2016 · MLB	27	47→53	52→60	38→45	46	243/301/406	162	284	21	3	23%	7%	98	+1.6	254/321/451	197	288	27	4	22%	9%	118	+3.0	257/331/460	203	288	28	4	21%	10%	123	+2.4
✕Roberto Lopez 2013 · AAA	27	46→49	54→55	36→45	43	240/288/420	180	258	22	5	18%	4%	97	+1.5	236/279/363	127	275	14	7	19%	5%	78	+0.2	254/300/387	132	287	17	5	18%	5%	90	+0.5
✕Andy Marte 2011 · MLB	27	47→48	52→55	40	48	242/294/409	167	269	20	4	19%	7%	95	+1.4	219/275/360	141	258	17	6	22%	7%	76	+0.0	218/264/344	126	248	15	2	19%	5%	65	-0.4
✕Luis Urías 2023 · MLB	26	47→57	53→55	43→45	54	244/335/417	174	281	21	4	21%	10%	116	+2.8	221/317/358	137	264	16	6	22%	10%	94	+1.3	226/309/345	119	258	14	6	18%	9%	85	+0.4
✕Matt LaPorta 2011 · MLB	26	47→49	53→55	41→30	52	242/315/416	174	267	21	3	19%	9%	107	+2.2	229/291/384	155	270	18	3	22%	7%	89	+0.9	219/278/372	153	259	18	1	23%	6%	79	+0.2
●John Buck 2008 · MLB	28	45→53	53→60	37→30	48	235/305/410	175	269	21	2	22%	8%	102	+1.8	240/305/421	181	291	21	3	24%	7%	104	+2.0	251/312/435	184	301	23	1	24%	7%	105	+1.4
✕Steve Cox 2002 · MLB	27	52→51	51→50	40	53	264/341/434	169	295	19	4	17%	9%	122	+3.3	253/328/405	152	292	16	6	19%	9%	109	+2.4	251/330/392	141	290	15	5	18%	9%	101	+1.9
✕Rangel Ravelo 2019 · AAA	27	51→56	48→50	40→45	48	256/318/400	144	295	15	3	19%	7%	104	+2.0	254/319/414	160	294	18	4	20%	7%	108	+2.3	271/351/428	157	316	18	0	19%	9%	123	+1.5
✕Willy Aybar 2010 · MLB	27	50→56	51→50	45→40	56	252/327/412	160	268	19	4	15%	10%	111	+2.5	235/313/372	137	273	15	5	19%	10%	95	+1.4	229/296/351	122	265	14	0	19%	8%	80	+0.2
●Jonah Bride 2023 · MLB	27	48→51	50	49→45	55	241/335/396	155	278	18	4	20%	10%	110	+2.4	243/335/392	149	288	17	5	21%	11%	109	+2.4	239/336/383	143	287	17	3	21%	11%	104	+1.5
✕Josmil Pinto 2016 · MLB	27	47→57	49→55	39→40	48	239/302/385	147	282	17	2	22%	8%	93	+1.3	222/271/359	137	287	16	5	28%	6%	73	-0.1	213/255/350	137	280	16	0	30%	5%	61	-0.5