Austin Hays

LF San Diego Padres

Age 32 R/R 5'10" / 200 lbs MLB HR +5% Svc 7.331 · Ctrl thru 2027

Overview

MLB40-MANExt / FA-dealFA 2028

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2024	29	AAA/AA2 orgs	34	.286/.412/.536	2	0	91	—	.233/.324/.367
2024	29	MLBPHI	255	.255/.306/.396	5	2	94	-0.4
2025	30	MLBCIN	416	.266/.320/.453	15	7	106	0.9
2026	31	AAACWS	79	.250/.269/.513	6	0	51	—	.195/.205/.377
2026	31	MLBSD	105	.280/.308/.400	3	0	95	-0.2
2027PROJ	32	MLBSD	194	.243/.286/.410	7	3	95	0.2
2028PROJ	33	MLBSD	169	.235/.277/.392	6	1	87	-0.4

Last 3 seasons WAR 0.3 · Next 2 projected WAR -0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2027Service7.331First FA2028Options4

2027Ext / FA-deal$2M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2024-2026

Bat Spd53

Barrel%51

Avg EV44

Speed42

xwOBA40

Form.252/.290/.420 · rolling true talent (60d window) · proj .245/.287/.413

CompsMatt Carson (age 32) · Ryan Mulhern (age 32) · Chad Huffman (age 32)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†vL 10095vR 79

AVG/OBP/SLG.243 / .286 / .410

PA194

HR7

K%25

BB%5

BABIP290

ISO166

MLB%100%

Value2027 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · Recent Form · Splits · ContractCON 45 / POW 50

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2024-2026

CONTACT45

xAVG

350.239

POWER50

Barrel%

518.3

Avg EV

4488.7

Bat Spd

5371.7

EYE40

scouting grade only

SPEED50

Sprint

4227.1

Recent Formrolling true talent ⓘ

K%24%▲23% over 31 PA (60d) · proj 25%

BB%5%·3% over 31 PA (60d) · proj 5%

ISO.169·.172 over 29 AB (60d) · proj .168

BABIP.301▲.500 over 22 BIP (60d) · proj .296

SLASH.252/.290/.420·proj .245/.287/.413

Platoon Splits2024-2026 · 696 PA

vs LHP

vs RHP

Edge

195

501

—

wRC+

161

◀◀L

wOBA

406

287

◀◀L

ISO

209

152

◀◀L

BABIP

447

278

◀◀L

24.6%

25.3%

—

BB%

7.7%

4.0%

◀◀L

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status FA

MLB Debut 2017

Service 7.331 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2027

First FA Year 2028

OPT

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Ext / FA-deal	$2M	+0.2	$0.8M	-$0.7M
Totals		$2M		$0.8M	-$0.7M

Options · projected decision
2027	MUTUAL OPT	$1.5M / $0.0M buyout	DECLINE
2028	MUTUAL OPT	$8.0M / $1.0M buyout	DECLINE
2029	MUTUAL OPT	$1.5M / $0.0M buyout	DECLINE
2030	MUTUAL OPT	$12.0M / $1.0M buyout	DECLINE

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2017	22	MLB	Baltimore Orioles	—	63	60	13	3	0	1	2	16	0	0	0	217	242	317	559	100	273	25	3	246	50	-4	+0	-1	-7	+1	-1.0
2017	22	AA	Bowie Baysox	—	283	261	86	17	2	16	13	45	4	1	1	330	371	594	964	264	345	16	5	412	128	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	22	A+	Frederick Keys	—	280	262	86	15	3	16	12	40	4	4	6	328	367	592	959	263	337	14	4	413	105	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	23	AA	Bowie Baysox	—	288	273	66	12	2	12	12	59	0	6	3	242	274	432	706	190	263	20	4	306	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	24	MLB	Baltimore Orioles	—	75	68	21	6	0	4	7	13	0	2	0	309	373	574	947	265	333	17	9	412	158	+5	+0	+0	+2	+2	0.9
2019	24	AAA	Norfolk Tides	—	257	240	61	16	1	10	11	61	6	6	4	254	304	454	758	200	302	24	4	334	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	24	AA	Bowie Baysox	—	61	56	15	5	0	3	5	11	0	3	1	268	328	518	846	250	286	18	8	369	85	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	24	A+	Frederick Keys	—	40	37	6	0	0	2	1	11	1	0	0	162	205	324	529	162	160	28	2	230	1	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	25	MLB	Baltimore Orioles	—	134	122	34	2	0	4	8	25	2	2	3	279	333	393	727	115	316	19	6	323	100	-0	-1	+1	+0	+3	0.4
2021	26	MLB	Baltimore Orioles	—	529	488	125	26	4	22	28	107	9	4	3	256	309	461	770	205	286	20	5	336	108	+5	-0	-2	-6	+11	0.9
2022	27	MLB	Baltimore Orioles	—	582	535	134	35	2	16	34	114	10	2	4	250	307	413	721	163	289	20	6	319	99	-1	-1	-4	-6	+13	0.1
2023	28	MLB	Baltimore Orioles	—	566	520	143	36	2	16	38	141	3	5	1	275	328	444	772	169	345	25	7	339	111	+7	+1	+2	-6	+12	1.7
2024	29	MLB	Philadelphia Phillies	—	255	235	60	18	0	5	9	59	8	2	2	255	306	396	701	140	318	23	4	310	94	-2	-0	-4	-3	+6	-0.4
2024	29	AAA	Lehigh Valley IronPigs	—	17	14	3	0	0	0	2	6	1	0	0	214	353	214	567		375	35	12	285	43	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	29	AA	Bowie Baysox	—	17	14	5	1	0	2	3	4	0	0	0	357	471	857	1.328	500	375	24	18	550	139	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	30	MLB	Cincinnati Reds	—	416	380	101	16	5	15	29	107	1	7	0	266	320	453	772	187	326	26	7	336	106	+3	+1	-0	-4	+9	0.9
2026	31	MLB	San Diego Padres	—	105	100	28	3	0	3	4	27	0	0	1	280	308	400	708	120	352	26	4	312	95	-1	-0	-1	-2	+2	-0.2
2026	31	AAA	Charlotte Knights	—	79	76	19	2	0	6	2	17	0	0	0	250	269	513	782	263	241	22	3	334	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	2725	2508	659	145	13	86	159	609	33	24	14	263	315	434	749	171	312	22	6	329	109	+29	-1	-8	-32	+59	4.8
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2017	22	MLB MLE	Baltimore Orioles	—	63	60	13	3	0	1	2	16	0	0	0	217	242	317	559	100	273	25	3	242	50	-4	+0	-1	-7	+1	-1.0
2017	22	AA MLE	Bowie Baysox	—	283	265	80	14	2	13	9	57	4	1	1	302	335	517	852	215	328	20	3	357	128	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	22	A+ MLE	Frederick Keys	—	280	266	71	13	2	11	8	57	4	4	6	267	299	455	753	188	299	20	3	323	105	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	23	AA MLE	Bowie Baysox	—	288	277	59	10	2	9	8	75	0	6	3	213	235	361	596	148	254	26	3	256	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	24	MLB MLE	Baltimore Orioles	—	75	68	21	6	0	4	7	13	0	2	0	309	373	574	947	265	333	17	9	401	158	+5	+0	+0	+2	+2	0.9
2019	24	AAA MLE	Norfolk Tides	—	257	244	52	13	1	9	7	75	6	6	4	213	253	385	638	172	265	29	3	274	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	24	AA MLE	Bowie Baysox	—	61	58	12	4	0	2	3	14	0	3	1	207	246	379	625	172	260	23	5	294	85	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	24	A+ MLE	Frederick Keys	—	40	37	4	0	0	1	1	16	1	0	0	108	154	189	343	81	144	40	2	170	1	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	25	MLB MLE	Baltimore Orioles	—	134	122	34	2	0	4	8	25	2	2	3	279	333	393	727	115	316	19	6	315	100	-0	-1	+1	+0	+3	0.4
2021	26	MLB MLE	Baltimore Orioles	—	529	488	122	26	4	20	28	107	9	4	3	250	303	443	745	193	286	20	5	328	108	+5	-0	-2	-6	+11	0.9
2022	27	MLB MLE	Baltimore Orioles	—	582	535	131	33	2	16	34	114	10	2	4	245	302	404	706	159	289	20	6	314	99	-1	-1	-4	-6	+13	0.1
2023	28	MLB MLE	Baltimore Orioles	—	566	521	140	34	2	16	37	141	3	5	1	269	321	434	755	165	345	25	7	332	111	+7	+1	+2	-6	+12	1.7
2024	29	MLB MLE	Philadelphia Phillies	—	255	236	60	18	0	5	8	59	8	2	2	254	302	394	696	140	318	23	3	307	94	-2	-0	-4	-3	+6	-0.4
2024	29	AAA MLE	Lehigh Valley IronPigs	—	17	15	3	0	0	0	1	7	1	0	0	200	294	200	494		348	41	6	232	43	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	29	AA MLE	Bowie Baysox	—	17	15	4	1	0	1	2	5	0	0	0	267	353	533	886	267	298	29	12	373	139	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	30	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	—	416	382	100	16	5	14	27	107	1	7	0	262	312	440	752	178	326	26	6	325	106	+3	+1	-0	-4	+9	0.9
2026	31	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	—	105	101	28	3	0	3	3	27	0	0	1	277	298	396	694	119	352	26	3	308	95	-1	-0	-1	-2	+2	-0.2
2026	31	AAA MLE	Charlotte Knights	—	79	77	15	2	0	4	1	20	0	0	0	195	205	377	582	182	203	25	1	244	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	22	AA MLE	3 teams	—	626	591	164	30	4	25	19	130	8	5	7	277	309	469	778	191	314	21	3	330	110	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	22	AA RAW	3 teams	—	626	583	185	35	5	33	27	101	8	5	7	317	356	564	920	247	334	16	4	396	110	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	23	AA MLE	Bowie Baysox	—	288	277	59	10	2	9	8	75	0	6	3	213	235	361	596	148	255	26	3	256	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	23	AA RAW	Bowie Baysox	—	288	273	66	12	2	12	12	59	0	6	3	242	274	432	706	190	263	20	4	306	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	24	AAA MLE	4 teams	—	433	407	90	23	1	17	18	118	7	11	5	221	266	408	674	187	267	27	4	289	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	24	AAA RAW	4 teams	—	433	401	103	27	1	19	24	96	7	11	5	257	310	471	782	214	293	22	6	343	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	25	MLB MLE	Baltimore Orioles	—	134	122	34	2	0	4	8	25	2	2	3	279	333	393	727	115	316	19	6	315	100	-0	-1	+1	+0	+3	0.4
2020	25	MLB RAW	Baltimore Orioles	—	134	122	34	2	0	4	8	25	2	2	3	279	333	393	727	115	316	19	6	323	100	-0	-1	+1	+0	+3	0.4
2021	26	MLB MLE	Baltimore Orioles	—	529	488	122	26	4	20	28	107	9	4	3	250	303	443	745	193	282	20	5	328	108	+5	-0	-2	-6	+11	0.9
2021	26	MLB RAW	Baltimore Orioles	—	529	488	125	26	4	22	28	107	9	4	3	256	309	461	770	205	286	20	5	336	108	+5	-0	-2	-6	+11	0.9
2022	27	MLB MLE	Baltimore Orioles	—	582	535	131	33	2	16	34	114	10	2	4	245	302	404	706	159	282	20	6	314	99	-1	-1	-4	-6	+13	0.1
2022	27	MLB RAW	Baltimore Orioles	—	582	535	134	35	2	16	34	114	10	2	4	250	307	413	721	163	289	20	6	319	99	-1	-1	-4	-6	+13	0.1
2023	28	MLB MLE	Baltimore Orioles	—	566	521	140	34	2	16	37	141	3	5	1	269	321	434	755	165	336	25	7	332	111	+7	+1	+2	-6	+12	1.7
2023	28	MLB RAW	Baltimore Orioles	—	566	520	143	36	2	16	38	141	3	5	1	275	328	444	772	169	345	25	7	339	111	+7	+1	+2	-6	+12	1.7
2024	29	MLB MLE	3 teams	—	289	266	66	19	0	6	11	71	9	2	2	248	301	387	688	139	314	25	4	306	93	-2	-0	-4	-3	+6	-0.3
2024	29	MLB RAW	3 teams	—	289	263	68	19	0	7	14	69	9	2	2	259	318	411	729	152	323	24	5	323	93	-2	-0	-4	-3	+6	-0.3
2025	30	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	—	416	382	100	16	5	14	27	107	1	7	0	262	312	440	752	178	322	26	6	325	106	+3	+1	-0	-4	+9	0.9
2025	30	MLB RAW	Cincinnati Reds	—	416	380	101	16	5	15	29	107	1	7	0	266	320	453	772	187	326	26	7	336	106	+3	+1	-0	-4	+9	0.9
2026	31	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	184	178	44	5	0	7	4	47	0	0	1	247	264	393	657	146	294	26	2	281	76	-5	-0	-1	-2	+4	-0.5
2026	31	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	184	176	47	5	0	9	6	44	0	0	1	267	291	449	740	182	304	24	3	322	76	-5	-0	-1	-2	+4	-0.5
2017	22	AA MLE	3 teams	—	626	594	164	30	4	25	19	130	8	5	7	276	309	466	775	190	309	21	3	330	110	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	23	AA MLE	Bowie Baysox	—	288	278	59	10	2	9	8	75	0	6	3	212	235	360	595	147	254	26	3	256	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	24	AAA MLE	4 teams	—	433	405	90	23	1	17	18	118	7	11	5	222	266	410	676	188	265	27	4	289	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	25	MLB MLE	Baltimore Orioles	—	134	123	34	2	0	4	8	25	2	2	3	276	333	390	724	114	316	19	6	315	100	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	26	MLB MLE	Baltimore Orioles	—	529	487	122	26	4	20	28	107	9	4	3	251	303	444	746	193	286	20	5	328	108	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	27	MLB MLE	Baltimore Orioles	—	582	533	131	33	2	16	34	114	10	2	4	246	302	405	707	159	289	20	6	314	99	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	28	MLB MLE	Baltimore Orioles	—	566	521	140	34	2	16	37	141	3	5	1	269	321	434	755	165	345	25	7	332	111	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	29	MLB MLE	3 teams	—	289	267	66	19	0	6	11	71	9	2	2	247	301	386	686	139	319	25	4	306	93	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	30	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	—	416	385	100	16	5	14	27	107	1	7	0	260	312	436	749	177	326	26	6	325	106	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	31	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	184	178	44	5	0	7	4	47	0	0	1	247	264	393	657	146	288	26	2	281	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	29	MLB MLE	3 teams	—	289	267	66	19	0	6	11	71	9	2	2	247	301	386	686	139	319	25	4	306	93	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	30	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	—	416	385	100	16	5	14	27	107	1	7	0	260	312	436	749	177	326	26	6	325	106	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	31	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	184	178	44	5	0	7	4	47	0	0	1	247	264	393	657	146	288	26	2	281	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	32	MLB MLE	SD	100%	303	283	70	12	2	11	15	76	2	4	1	246	289	414	703	168	296	25	5	309	95	-2	+0	+1	-3	+7	0.2
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	32	MLB CTX	SD	100%	194	181	44	7	1	7	10	49	1	3	1	243	286	410	697	168	290	25	5	306	95	-1	+0	+1	-2	+4	0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	33	MLB MLE	SD	100%	169	158	38	6	1	6	8	43	1	1	0	238	280	395	675	158	288	25	5	297	87	-3	+0	-4	-2	+4	-0.4
2028	33	MLB CTX	SD	100%	169	158	38	6	1	6	8	43	1	1	0	235	277	392	670	158	283	25	5	295	87	-3	+0	-4	-2	+4	-0.4
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	2894	2666	697	151	14	92	167	652	34	25	14	261	313	432	745	171	311	23	6	327	98	+26	-1	-11	-34	+63	4.4
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	599	157	34	3	21	38	146	8	6	3	262	315	434	749	172	311	22	6	327	98	+6	-0	-3	-8	+14	1.0
Career	—	MLE		—	4410	4106	1032	211	22	147	212	1027	51	48	30	251	296	421	717	170	298	23	5	312	98	+25	-0	-10	-36	+67	4.6
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	605	152	31	3	22	31	151	8	7	4	251	297	421	718	170	297	23	5	312	98	+5	-0	-2	-8	+14	1.0

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAACharlotte Knights · 79 PAwOBA .328 → .244 (−84)K% 21.5% → 25.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	21.52%	÷1.000	×1.200	—	—	25.82%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	2.53%	÷1.000	×0.690	—	×0.962	1.68%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.940	—	×0.962	0.00%
Singles /BIP	18.64%	÷1.000	×0.930	×0.994	×0.962	16.58%
Doubles /BIP	3.39%	÷1.000	×0.830	×0.994	×0.962	2.69%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.970	×0.994	×0.962	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	10.17%	÷1.000	×0.700	—	×0.962	6.85%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 31 vs a level average of 27.2 → −3.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.994.

Result: wOBA .328 → .244; ISO .263 → .175; BABIP .241 → .203. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAALehigh Valley IronPigs · 17 PAwOBA .279 → .232 (−47)K% 35.3% → 41.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	35.29%	÷1.022	×1.200	—	—	41.43%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	11.76%	÷1.021	×0.690	—	×0.982	7.81%
HBP% /PA	5.88%	—	×0.940	—	×0.982	5.43%
Singles /BIP	37.50%	÷0.985	×0.930	—	×0.982	34.76%
Doubles /BIP	0.00%	÷0.960	×0.830	—	×0.982	0.00%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.150	×0.970	—	×0.982	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷0.989	×0.700	—	×0.982	0.00%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 98, 1B 97, 2B 92, 3B 130, K 104, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 27.2 → −1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .279 → .232; ISO .000 → .000; BABIP .375 → .348. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AABowie Baysox · 17 PAwOBA .534 → .373 (−161)K% 23.5% → 29.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	23.53%	÷0.970	×1.220	—	—	29.58%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	17.65%	÷1.028	×0.700	—	×0.958	11.51%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.850	—	×0.958	0.00%
Singles /BIP	20.00%	÷1.008	×0.970	—	×0.958	18.44%
Doubles /BIP	10.00%	÷1.062	×0.860	—	×0.958	7.76%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.135	×0.950	—	×0.958	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	20.00%	÷1.249	×0.780	—	×0.958	11.97%

Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 150, 1B 102, 2B 112, 3B 127, K 94, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 24.8 → −4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.2 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .534 → .373; ISO .500 → .312; BABIP .375 → .298. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AAANorfolk Tides · 257 PAwOBA .324 → .274 (−50)K% 23.7% → 29.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	23.74%	÷0.973	×1.200	—	—	29.26%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	4.28%	÷1.103	×0.690	—	×1.048	2.81%
HBP% /PA	2.33%	—	×0.940	—	×1.048	2.30%
Singles /BIP	18.99%	÷1.033	×0.930	×0.950	×1.048	17.03%
Doubles /BIP	8.94%	÷0.990	×0.830	×0.950	×1.048	7.46%
Triples /BIP	0.56%	÷0.954	×0.970	×0.950	×1.048	0.57%
Home runs /BIP	5.59%	÷0.889	×0.840	—	×1.048	5.54%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 78, 1B 107, 2B 98, 3B 91, K 95, BB 121 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 27.2 → +4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .324 → .274; ISO .200 → .177; BABIP .302 → .265. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AABowie Baysox · 61 PAwOBA .358 → .294 (−64)K% 18.0% → 23.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	18.03%	÷0.940	×1.220	—	—	23.41%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	8.20%	÷1.020	×0.700	—	×1.012	5.69%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.850	—	×1.012	0.00%
Singles /BIP	15.56%	÷1.031	×0.970	—	×1.012	14.81%
Doubles /BIP	11.11%	÷0.987	×0.860	—	×1.012	9.80%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.116	×0.950	—	×1.012	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	6.67%	÷0.987	×0.780	—	×1.012	5.33%

Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 97, 1B 106, 2B 97, 3B 123, K 88, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .358 → .294; ISO .250 → .199; BABIP .286 → .260. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 A+Frederick Keys · 40 PAwOBA .229 → .170 (−59)K% 27.5% → 39.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	27.50%	÷1.001	×1.420	—	—	38.99%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	2.50%	÷1.111	×0.630	—	×0.988	1.40%
HBP% /PA	2.50%	—	×0.860	—	×0.988	2.12%
Singles /BIP	15.38%	÷1.008	×0.940	—	×0.988	14.17%
Doubles /BIP	0.00%	÷0.969	×0.830	—	×0.988	0.00%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.900	×0.800	—	×0.988	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	7.69%	÷1.135	×0.900	—	×0.988	6.03%

Factors used: league row CAR. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 127, 1B 102, 2B 94, 3B 80, K 100, BB 122 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .229 → .170; ISO .162 → .112; BABIP .160 → .144. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 AABowie Baysox · 288 PAwOBA .299 → .256 (−43)K% 20.5% → 26.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	20.49%	÷0.960	×1.220	—	—	26.03%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	3.82%	÷0.978	×0.700	—	×1.027	2.81%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.850	—	×1.027	0.00%
Singles /BIP	18.69%	÷0.996	×0.970	×0.994	×1.027	18.59%
Doubles /BIP	5.61%	÷0.971	×0.860	×0.994	×1.027	5.07%
Triples /BIP	0.93%	÷0.900	×0.950	×0.994	×1.027	1.01%
Home runs /BIP	5.61%	÷1.060	×0.780	—	×1.027	4.24%

Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 112, 1B 99, 2B 94, 3B 80, K 92, BB 96 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.994.

Result: wOBA .299 → .256; ISO .190 → .149; BABIP .263 → .254. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 AABowie Baysox · 283 PAwOBA .404 → .357 (−47)K% 15.9% → 20.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	15.90%	÷0.970	×1.220	—	—	20.00%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	4.59%	÷1.061	×0.700	—	×1.042	3.16%
HBP% /PA	1.41%	—	×0.850	—	×1.042	1.25%
Singles /BIP	23.61%	÷0.993	×0.970	×0.987	×1.042	23.71%
Doubles /BIP	7.87%	÷1.043	×0.860	×0.987	×1.042	6.67%
Triples /BIP	0.93%	÷1.016	×0.950	×0.987	×1.042	0.89%
Home runs /BIP	7.41%	÷0.998	×0.780	—	×1.042	6.03%

Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 100, 1B 99, 2B 109, 3B 103, K 94, BB 112 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 24.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.987.

Result: wOBA .404 → .357; ISO .264 → .218; BABIP .345 → .328. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Josh Reddicklast yr '21 career totals — 13 seasons, 4,879 PA	7.3	4,879	146	61	262	321	426	-52	-8	13.1	13.0
/162	664	20	8	-7.1	-1.1	1.8	pk7: 13
#2Jeffrey Hammonds'93-'05 * career totals — 12 seasons, 3,404 PA	5.1	3,404	110	67	260*	323*	434*	-25	+1	8.6	8.7
/162	664	21	13	-4.8	+0.2	1.7	pk7: 9
#3Jay Gibbonslast yr '11 career totals — 9 seasons, 3,177 PA	4.8	3,177	127	2	260	315	453	-30	-30	7.7	8.1
/162	664	27	0	-6.3	-6.3	1.6	pk7: 9
#4Avisaíl Garcíalast yr '24 career totals — 13 seasons, 4,298 PA	6.5	4,298	140	51	263	316	417	-43	-35	6.6	8.0
/162	664	22	8	-6.7	-5.4	1.0	pk7: 9
#5Todd Hollandsworth'95-'06 * career totals — 12 seasons, 3,492 PA	5.3	3,492	98	75	262*	315*	427*	-28	+1	7.3	7.6
/162	664	19	14	-5.2	+0.2	1.4	pk7: 8
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 11 projected seasons	4.7	3,088	99	27	261	309	432	-33	-14	7.3	7.3
/162	664	21	6	-7.1	-3.0	1.6	pk7: 7
#6John Ellis'69-'81 * career totals — 12 seasons, 2,915 PA	4.4	2,915	69	6	261*	312*	428*	-16	-9	5.9	6.2
/162	664	16	1	-3.7	-2.1	1.3	pk7: 6

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Austin Hays (OGILVIE)	32	45	50	50	40	244/287/410	166	296	7	3	25%	5%	95	+0.3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Matt Carson 2013 · MLB	32	46→50	50→60	49→50	40	235/279/394	160	292	18	12	26%	5%	88	+0.4	214/264/334	120	283	14	14	28%	5%	68	-1.0	196/251/301	105	260	12	15	29%	5%	54	-1.1
✕Ryan Mulhern 2013 · AAA	32	46→49	51→55	43→40	41	237/290/395	158	300	19	6	27%	6%	92	+0.7	232/286/384	152	288	17	8	25%	5%	88	+0.5	220/269/388	167	252	20	3	22%	3%	84	+0.0
✕Chad Huffman 2017 · AAA	32	46→52	51→50	49→45	48	235/311/404	169	276	18	12	22%	8%	102	+1.5	219/295/367	148	273	16	6	25%	7%	88	+0.4	202/282/340	138	254	15	1	26%	7%	73	-0.3
✕Tagg Bozied 2011 · AAA	32	47→46	51→55	43→45	45	239/298/404	166	295	19	6	26%	7%	97	+1.1	222/297/394	172	310	19	6	33%	8%	95	+0.9	176/273/377	201	251	23	0	38%	10%	79	-0.1
✕Christian Bethancourt 2024 · MLB	32	45→53	51→50	48→50	39	235/270/392	157	286	19	6	26%	4%	84	+0.1	203/239/343	140	254	18	8	28%	4%	61	-1.5	175/207/299	124	214	18	9	28%	3%	36	-1.2
✕Michael A. Taylor 2024 · MLB	33	46→54	52→55	51→60	43	238/296/400	161	303	22	14	29%	7%	95	+1.0	212/271/361	149	296	17	17	33%	7%	77	-0.3	191/251/321	130	276	14	19	34%	7%	61	-0.8
✕Chris Aguila 2010 · MLB	31	44→54	53→55	49→50	44	233/290/400	167	288	22	12	27%	7%	93	+0.8	211/266/351	140	280	16	7	30%	6%	73	-0.6	201/257/331	130	267	15	5	30%	6%	62	-0.9
✕Tim Beckham 2022 · MLB	32	44→54	54→55	45→50	41	231/279/407	176	294	22	6	29%	6%	91	+0.6	253/306/387	134	334	16	9	28%	6%	96	+1.0	302/351/401	100	411	13	6	28%	5%	109	+0.6
✕Hector Luna 2012 · MLB	32	47→49	50→55	49→50	47	242/295/391	149	273	18	8	19%	6%	93	+0.8	236/282/372	136	276	15	8	20%	6%	83	+0.1	237/275/366	129	275	14	3	19%	4%	77	-0.2
✕Craig Paquette 2001 · MLB	32	47→46	54→55	45	47	243/295/425	182	272	21	7	20%	7%	101	+1.4	240/283/396	156	272	18	6	19%	5%	89	+0.5	240/278/389	149	271	18	4	19%	4%	87	+0.2
✕Kevin Young 2001 · MLB	32	49→50	53→55	46→50	47	255/309/429	174	279	22	9	18%	6%	107	+1.8	241/311/405	164	283	18	11	21%	8%	102	+1.5	235/311/398	162	278	17	11	21%	8%	101	+1.2
✕Michael Restovich 2010 · MLB	31	46→48	52→55	43→30	43	238/287/405	167	299	19	3	27%	6%	93	+0.8	218/269/346	128	302	13	4	31%	6%	72	-0.7	197/248/304	106	282	10	1	33%	6%	52	-0.9
✕Juan Diaz 2006 · AA	32	47	54→60	47→30	42	247/298/425	177	295	23	5	25%	6%	102	+1.5	233/283/393	160	286	20	6	25%	6%	88	+0.5	226/271/366	141	267	19	0	23%	5%	74	-0.1
✕Joey Meneses 2023 · MLB	31	49→56	53→55	47→40	42	255/295/428	173	302	22	3	24%	5%	101	+1.4	245/292/375	130	294	14	3	21%	6%	88	+0.4	234/284/349	115	280	11	1	20%	6%	78	-0.3
✕John Hicks 2022 · MLB	32	43→52	55	49→50	36	230/267/410	180	300	24	10	32%	4%	87	+0.4	205/250/350	145	283	17	16	33%	5%	67	-1.1	182/227/314	132	251	15	18	34%	5%	47	-1.3
✕Charlie Culberson 2021 · MLB	32	50→54	53→45	47→50	41	254/303/431	177	322	21	7	28%	6%	105	+1.7	233/280/358	125	303	12	13	26%	6%	79	-0.2	223/263/326	103	298	9	14	27%	5%	65	-0.3
✕Kevin Pillar 2022 · MLB	33	48→58	54→55	47→55	41	252/293/428	177	280	22	10	20%	4%	101	+1.4	239/290/418	179	271	22	11	21%	5%	97	+1.1	231/282/403	173	262	21	15	21%	5%	92	+0.3
✕Jose Leon 2008 · AAA	31	49	51→55	46→30	44	251/301/408	157	296	20	4	23%	6%	99	+1.2	238/293/369	131	286	14	6	21%	6%	86	+0.3	228/272/349	121	283	17	0	26%	4%	70	-0.2
✕Shelley Duncan 2012 · MLB	32	43→44	54→60	44→45	49	228/299/408	180	263	23	3	23%	8%	99	+1.2	199/268/347	148	236	18	4	24%	8%	73	-0.6	171/240/305	134	200	17	1	25%	8%	53	-1.2
✕Brandon Snyder 2019 · MLB	32	39→49	52→55	46→45	38	209/266/371	163	288	21	6	35%	6%	78	-0.3	192/250/356	164	290	22	5	40%	5%	69	-0.9	162/223/323	161	237	24	2	42%	5%	49	-1.4

Austin Hays

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps