Avisaíl García

PosRF
B/TR/R
Born1991-06-12
Age (2027)36
No MLB projection yet. Career stats below are historical.
Overview
MLBLAST SEASON 2024
YearAgeLvl / TeamPAAVG/OBP/SLGHRSBwRC+WARMLE AVG/OBP/SLG
202231AAAMIA34.250/.364/.3210256—.200/.273/.267
202231MLBMIA380.224/.267/.3178469-1.3
202332AAA/AAMIA53.227/.358/.5684076—.191/.283/.446
202332MLBMIA118.185/.237/.3153255-0.5
202433MLBMIA51.240/.255/.3802082-0.0
202534No MLB games played
202635No MLB games played
Last 3 seasons WAR -1.8
Contract
No contract data on file.
Skills · percentileStatcast 2022-2024
Speed63
Avg EV47
Barrel%46
xwOBA33
Bat Spd28

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.
basis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

YearAge LvlTeam MLB% PAAB H2B3BHR BBSOHBP SBCS AVGOBPSLGOPS ISOBABIP K%BB% wOBAwRC+ BATRUNFLDPOSREP WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
200817 ROKVSL Tigers — 263245 731227 15392 75 298344449792 151330 156 351 36 — — — — — —
200918 AWest Michigan Whitecaps — 315299 791121 8704 87 264293324617 60336 223 275 51 — — — — — —
201019 AWest Michigan Whitecaps — 524494 1391744 201135 204 281316356672 75353 224 300 53 — — — — — —
201120 A+Lakeland Flying Tigers — 515488 12916611 181326 145 264299389688 125339 263 305 53 — — — — — —
201221 MLBDetroit Tigers — 5147 15000 3101 02 319373319692 405 206 322 97 -0 -1 -1 -7 +1 -0.7
201221 AAErie SeaWolves — 226215 67936 7384 94 312345465810 153357 173 359 102 — — — — — —
201221 A+Lakeland Flying Tigers — 283262 74758 11575 144 282324439763 156327 204 332 74 — — — — — —
201221 INTLCaribes de Anzoategui — 6054 10200 5151 11 185267222489 37256 258 234 44 — — — — — —
201322 MLBChicago White Sox — 256244 69737 9591 33 283311422733 139344 234 322 103 +1 -1 -7 -5 +6 -0.6
201322 AAACharlotte Knights — 188174 65726 12362 42 374420540960 167447 196 424 151 — — — — — —
201322 A+Lakeland Flying Tigers — 2824 10021 410 20 4175007081.208 292409 414 516 173 — — — — — —
201423 MLBChicago White Sox — 190172 42807 14442 41 244309413721 169285 237 318 98 -0 +0 -6 -4 +4 -0.6
201423 AAACharlotte Knights — 5350 17301 1162 00 340377460837 120485 302 375 100 — — — — — —
201423 INTLTigres de Aragua — 142125 39825 11342 41 312377528905 216378 248 386 147 — — — — — —
201524 MLBChicago White Sox — 601553 14217213 361418 77 257312365677 108320 236 304 89 -8 -1 -6 -6 +13 -0.9
201625 MLBChicago White Sox — 453413 10118212 341154 44 245308385693 140309 258 310 95 -3 -1 -2 -6 +10 -0.2
201625 INTLTigres de Aragua — 136113 33605 18255 21 292412478890 186337 1813 399 156 — — — — — —
201726 MLBChicago White Sox — 561518 17127518 331119 53 330380506886 176392 206 391 145 +30 -0 -2 -6 +12 3.5
201827 MLBChicago White Sox — 385356 8411219 201024 31 236284438722 202271 265 314 95 -2 +0 +1 -4 +8 0.3
201827 AAACharlotte Knights — 2825 9303 390 00 3604298401.269 480462 3211 532 127 — — — — — —
201928 MLBTampa Bay Rays — 530489 13825220 311257 104 282334464798 182340 246 351 122 +14 +0 -1 -6 +11 1.9
202029 MLBMilwaukee Brewers — 207181 431002 20496 13 238333326659 88315 2410 306 92 -2 -1 +1 +1 +4 0.4
202130 MLBMilwaukee Brewers — 515461 12118029 3812111 84 262333490824 228291 237 359 123 +14 +0 -3 -6 +11 1.8
202231 MLBMiami Marlins — 380357 80908 171094 40 224267317584 92298 294 263 69 -14 +1 -3 -4 +8 -1.3
202231 AAAJacksonville Jumbo Shrimp — 3428 7200 5110 20 250364321685 71389 3215 311 56 — — — — — —
202332 MLBMiami Marlins — 118108 20313 6392 20 185237315552 130258 335 247 55 -6 +0 -0 -2 +3 -0.5
202332 AAAJacksonville Jumbo Shrimp — 3227 7203 5110 00 2593756671.042 407308 3416 441 93 — — — — — —
202332 AAPensacola Blue Wahoos — 2117 3101 351 00 176333412745 235182 2414 338 51 — — — — — —
202433 MLBMiami Marlins — 5150 12102 1130 00 240255380635 140286 252 280 82 -1 +0 +0 -1 +1 -0.0
202433 AAAJacksonville Jumbo Shrimp — 2119 2010 270 00 105190211401 105167 3310 186 -18 — — — — — —
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career— — 42983949 103815417140 262103859 5132 263318417735 154321 246 326 107 +34 -3 -27 -57 +93 4.2
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
200817 ROK MLEVSL Tigers — 263250 48713 10482 75 192229264493 72224 184 222 36 — — — — — —
200918 A MLEWest Michigan Whitecaps — 315301 73921 6954 87 243267296563 53335 302 244 51 — — — — — —
201019 A MLEWest Michigan Whitecaps — 524499 1181333 151585 204 236266293558 56330 303 246 53 — — — — — —
201120 A+ MLELakeland Flying Tigers — 515494 1091549 121986 145 221248322570 101340 382 247 53 — — — — — —
201221 MLB MLEDetroit Tigers — 5148 15000 2101 02 312353312665 405 204 311 97 -0 -1 -1 -7 +1 -0.7
201221 AA MLEErie SeaWolves — 226217 65834 5494 94 300327419747 120369 222 319 102 — — — — — —
201221 A+ MLELakeland Flying Tigers — 283265 65746 8815 144 245281370650 125308 293 278 74 — — — — — —
201322 MLB MLEChicago White Sox — 256244 69737 9591 33 283311422733 139344 234 321 103 +1 -1 -7 -5 +6 -0.6
201322 AAA MLECharlotte Knights — 188177 63625 9422 42 356394497891 141451 225 392 151 — — — — — —
201322 A+ MLELakeland Flying Tigers — 2825 9011 310 20 360429560989 200355 411 424 173 — — — — — —
201423 MLB MLEChicago White Sox — 190173 42807 13442 41 243303410714 168285 237 313 98 -0 +0 -6 -4 +4 -0.6
201423 AAA MLECharlotte Knights — 5350 15201 1202 00 300340400740 100476 382 316 100 — — — — — —
201524 MLB MLEChicago White Sox — 601556 14217213 331418 77 255307363670 108320 235 299 89 -8 -1 -6 -6 +13 -0.9
201625 MLB MLEChicago White Sox — 453413 10118212 341154 44 245308385693 140309 258 309 95 -3 -1 -2 -6 +10 -0.2
201726 MLB MLEChicago White Sox — 561523 17127518 281119 53 327371501872 174392 205 383 145 +30 -0 -2 -6 +12 3.5
201827 MLB MLEChicago White Sox — 385358 8411219 181024 31 235279436715 201271 265 308 95 -2 +0 +1 -4 +8 0.3
201827 AAA MLECharlotte Knights — 2826 7202 2110 00 269321577898 308358 397 356 127 — — — — — —
201928 MLB MLETampa Bay Rays — 530491 13826221 291257 104 281330470801 189340 245 349 122 +14 +0 -1 -6 +11 1.9
202029 MLB MLEMilwaukee Brewers — 207183 441102 18496 13 240329333662 93315 249 304 92 -2 -1 +1 +1 +4 0.4
202130 MLB MLEMilwaukee Brewers — 515466 12119028 3312111 84 260324481804 221291 236 351 123 +14 +0 -3 -6 +11 1.8
202231 MLB MLEMiami Marlins — 380357 821008 171094 40 230272325597 95298 294 271 69 -14 +1 -3 -4 +8 -1.3
202231 AAA MLEJacksonville Jumbo Shrimp — 3430 6200 3140 20 200273267539 67335 419 251 56 — — — — — —
202332 MLB MLEMiami Marlins — 118111 20313 5392 20 180229306535 126258 334 249 55 -6 +0 -0 -2 +3 -0.5
202332 AAA MLEJacksonville Jumbo Shrimp — 3229 6202 3130 00 207281483764 276242 419 305 93 — — — — — —
202332 AA MLEPensacola Blue Wahoos — 2118 3101 261 00 167286389675 222153 2910 244 51 — — — — — —
202433 MLB MLEMiami Marlins — 5150 12102 1130 00 240255380635 140286 252 289 82 -1 +0 +0 -1 +1 -0.0
202433 AAA MLEJacksonville Jumbo Shrimp — 2120 2010 180 00 100143200343 100149 385 142 -18 — — — — — —
200817 ROK MLEVSL Tigers — 263250 48713 10482 75 192229264493 72225 184 222 36 — — — — — —
200817 ROK RAWVSL Tigers — 263245 731227 15392 75 298344449792 151330 156 351 36 — — — — — —
200918 A MLEWest Michigan Whitecaps — 315301 73921 6954 87 243267296563 53344 302 244 51 — — — — — —
200918 A RAWWest Michigan Whitecaps — 315299 791121 8704 87 264293324617 60336 223 275 51 — — — — — —
201019 A MLEWest Michigan Whitecaps — 524499 1181333 151585 204 236266293558 56335 303 246 53 — — — — — —
201019 A RAWWest Michigan Whitecaps — 524494 1391744 201135 204 281316356672 75353 224 300 53 — — — — — —
201120 A+ MLELakeland Flying Tigers — 515494 1091549 121986 145 221248322570 101345 382 247 53 — — — — — —
201120 A+ RAWLakeland Flying Tigers — 515488 12916611 181326 145 264299389688 125339 263 305 53 — — — — — —
201221 A+ MLE4 teams — 620588 16016811 1615411 2411 272304383687 111348 253 298 88 — — — — — —
201221 A+ RAW4 teams — 620578 16618814 2612011 2411 287330419749 131339 194 331 88 — — — — — —
201322 MLB MLE3 teams — 472446 14113713 211033 95 316351464815 148386 224 355 127 +15 -0 -7 -5 +10 1.3
201322 MLB RAW3 teams — 472442 14414714 25963 95 326366484850 158389 205 374 127 +15 -0 -7 -5 +10 1.3
201423 MLB MLE3 teams — 385351 9016012 221016 82 256311405716 148320 266 314 98 -1 +1 -6 -4 +8 -0.1
201423 MLB RAW3 teams — 385347 9819213 26946 82 282343461804 179346 247 351 98 -1 +1 -6 -4 +8 -0.1
201524 MLB MLEChicago White Sox — 601556 14217213 331418 77 255307363670 108318 235 299 89 -8 -1 -6 -6 +13 -0.9
201524 MLB RAWChicago White Sox — 601553 14217213 361418 77 257312365677 108320 236 304 89 -8 -1 -6 -6 +13 -0.9
201625 MLB MLE2 teams — 589534 13123315 441509 65 245313384697 139313 257 309 95 -4 -1 -2 -6 +13 0.0
201625 MLB RAW2 teams — 589526 13424217 521409 65 255332405737 150315 249 331 95 -4 -1 -2 -6 +13 0.0
201726 MLB MLEChicago White Sox — 561523 17127518 281119 53 327371501872 174387 205 383 145 +30 -0 -2 -6 +12 3.5
201726 MLB RAWChicago White Sox — 561518 17127518 331119 53 330380506886 176392 206 391 145 +30 -0 -2 -6 +12 3.5
201827 MLB MLE2 teams — 413384 9013220 201134 31 234279435714 201273 275 311 97 -2 +0 +1 -4 +9 0.5
201827 MLB RAW2 teams — 413381 9314222 231114 31 244294465759 220281 276 329 97 -2 +0 +1 -4 +9 0.5
201928 MLB MLETampa Bay Rays — 530491 13826221 291257 104 281330470801 189336 245 349 122 +14 +0 -1 -6 +11 1.9
201928 MLB RAWTampa Bay Rays — 530489 13825220 311257 104 282334464798 182340 246 351 122 +14 +0 -1 -6 +11 1.9
202029 MLB MLEMilwaukee Brewers — 207183 441102 18496 13 240329333662 93318 249 304 92 -2 -1 +1 +1 +4 0.4
202029 MLB RAWMilwaukee Brewers — 207181 431002 20496 13 238333326659 88315 2410 306 92 -2 -1 +1 +1 +4 0.4
202130 MLB MLEMilwaukee Brewers — 515466 12119028 3312111 84 260324481804 221289 236 351 123 +14 +0 -3 -6 +11 1.8
202130 MLB RAWMilwaukee Brewers — 515461 12118029 3812111 84 262333490824 228291 237 359 123 +14 +0 -3 -6 +11 1.8
202231 MLB MLE2 teams — 414387 881208 201234 60 227273320593 93309 305 269 68 -16 +1 -3 -4 +9 -1.3
202231 MLB RAW2 teams — 414385 871108 221204 60 226275317592 91304 295 267 68 -16 +1 -3 -4 +9 -1.3
202332 MLB MLE3 teams — 171158 29616 10583 20 184246348594 165245 346 259 61 -8 +0 -0 -2 +4 -0.6
202332 MLB RAW3 teams — 171152 30617 14553 20 197275388663 191256 328 294 61 -8 +0 -0 -2 +4 -0.6
202433 MLB MLE2 teams — 7270 14112 2210 00 200222329551 129255 293 246 53 -4 +0 +0 -1 +2 -0.3
202433 MLB RAW2 teams — 7269 14112 3200 00 203236333569 130255 284 253 53 -4 +0 +0 -1 +2 -0.3
200817 ROK MLEVSL Tigers — 263249 48713 10482 75 193229265494 72224 184 222 36 — — — — — —
200918 A MLEWest Michigan Whitecaps — 315302 73921 6954 87 242267295562 53335 302 244 51 — — — — — —
201019 A MLEWest Michigan Whitecaps — 524499 1181333 151585 204 236266293558 56330 303 246 53 — — — — — —
201120 A+ MLELakeland Flying Tigers — 515492 1091549 121986 145 222248323571 102340 382 247 53 — — — — — —
201221 A+ MLE4 teams — 620588 16016811 1615411 2411 272304383687 111341 253 298 88 — — — — — —
201322 MLB MLE3 teams — 472445 14113713 211033 95 317351465816 148388 224 355 127 — — — — — —
201423 MLB MLE3 teams — 385354 9016012 221016 82 254311401712 147326 266 314 98 — — — — — —
201524 MLB MLEChicago White Sox — 601555 14217213 331418 77 256307364670 108320 235 299 89 — — — — — —
201625 MLB MLE2 teams — 589531 13123315 441509 65 247313386700 139309 257 309 95 — — — — — —
201726 MLB MLEChicago White Sox — 561519 17127518 281119 53 329371505876 175392 205 383 145 — — — — — —
201827 MLB MLE2 teams — 413386 9013220 201134 31 233279433712 199277 275 311 97 — — — — — —
201928 MLB MLETampa Bay Rays — 530489 13826221 291257 104 282330472803 190340 245 349 122 — — — — — —
202029 MLB MLEMilwaukee Brewers — 207181 441102 18496 13 243329337666 94315 249 304 92 — — — — — —
202130 MLB MLEMilwaukee Brewers — 515466 12119028 3312111 84 260324481804 221291 236 351 123 — — — — — —
202231 MLB MLE2 teams — 414387 881208 201234 60 227273320593 93301 305 269 68 — — — — — —
202332 MLB MLE3 teams — 171156 29616 10583 20 186246353598 167242 346 259 61 — — — — — —
202433 MLB MLE2 teams — 7270 14112 2210 00 200222329551 129246 293 246 53 — — — — — —
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
202433 MLB MLE2 teams — 7270 14112 2210 00 200222329551 129246 293 246 53 — — — — — —
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career— A+C — 42983949 103815417140 262103859 5132 263318417735 154321 246 326 91 +34 -3 -27 -57 +93 4.2
/ 162G— A+C — 650597 15723321 401579 85 263319417736 154322 246 326 91 +5 -0 -4 -9 +14 0.6
Career— MLE — 71676681 170724441185 339186998 13866 256301387689 132325 265 303 91 +34 -3 -27 -57 +93 4.2
/ 162G— MLE — 650606 15522417 311709 136 256302389691 134326 265 303 91 +5 -0 -4 -9 +14 0.6

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2024 AAAJacksonville Jumbo Shrimp · 21 PAwOBA .182 → .142 (−41)K% 33.3% → 40.0%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA33.33%÷0.999×1.200——40.04%
BB% (unintentional) /PA9.52%÷1.005×0.690—×0.9426.16%
HBP% /PA0.00%—×0.940—×0.9420.00%
Singles /BIP8.33%÷1.016×0.930—×0.9427.18%
Doubles /BIP0.00%÷0.970×0.830—×0.9420.00%
Triples /BIP8.33%÷0.985×0.970—×0.9427.73%
Home runs /BIP0.00%÷0.925×0.700—×0.9420.00%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 85, 1B 103, 2B 94, 3B 97, K 100, BB 101 — applied at half strength. Age: age 33 vs a level average of 27.2 → −5.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (5.8 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .182 → .142; ISO .105 → .092; BABIP .167 → .149. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAAJacksonville Jumbo Shrimp · 32 PAwOBA .428 → .305 (−124)K% 34.4% → 39.7%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA34.38%÷1.040×1.200——39.65%
BB% (unintentional) /PA15.62%÷1.008×0.690—×0.95210.18%
HBP% /PA0.00%—×0.940—×0.9520.00%
Singles /BIP12.50%÷1.016×0.930—×0.95210.89%
Doubles /BIP12.50%÷0.955×0.830—×0.95210.34%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.039×0.970—×0.9520.00%
Home runs /BIP18.75%÷1.031×0.700—×0.95212.12%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 106, 1B 103, 2B 91, 3B 108, K 108, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 32 vs a level average of 27.2 → −4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.8 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .428 → .305; ISO .407 → .278; BABIP .308 → .242. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAPensacola Blue Wahoos · 21 PAwOBA .330 → .244 (−86)K% 23.8% → 29.3%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA23.81%÷0.990×1.220——29.34%
BB% (unintentional) /PA14.29%÷1.056×0.680—×0.9408.65%
HBP% /PA4.76%—×0.840—×0.9403.76%
Singles /BIP8.33%÷1.052×0.920—×0.9406.85%
Doubles /BIP8.33%÷0.947×0.910—×0.9407.53%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.097×0.880—×0.9400.00%
Home runs /BIP8.33%÷1.091×0.800—×0.9405.74%

Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 118, 1B 110, 2B 89, 3B 119, K 98, BB 111 — applied at half strength. Age: age 32 vs a level average of 24.8 → −6.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (7.2 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .330 → .244; ISO .235 → .178; BABIP .182 → .153. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAAJacksonville Jumbo Shrimp · 34 PAwOBA .313 → .251 (−63)K% 32.4% → 40.2%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA32.35%÷0.966×1.200——40.21%
BB% (unintentional) /PA14.71%÷0.978×0.690—×0.9629.98%
HBP% /PA0.00%—×0.940—×0.9620.00%
Singles /BIP29.41%÷1.054×0.930—×0.96224.97%
Doubles /BIP11.76%÷0.898×0.830—×0.96210.46%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷0.930×0.970—×0.9620.00%
Home runs /BIP0.00%÷1.032×0.700—×0.9620.00%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 106, 1B 111, 2B 80, 3B 86, K 93, BB 96 — applied at half strength. Age: age 31 vs a level average of 27.2 → −3.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.8 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .313 → .251; ISO .071 → .063; BABIP .389 → .335. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 AAACharlotte Knights · 28 PAwOBA .516 → .356 (−161)K% 32.1% → 39.1%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA32.14%÷0.986×1.200——39.10%
BB% (unintentional) /PA10.71%÷1.030×0.690—×1.0037.20%
HBP% /PA0.00%—×0.940—×1.0030.00%
Singles /BIP18.75%÷1.030×0.930—×1.00316.98%
Doubles /BIP18.75%÷1.077×0.830—×1.00314.50%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.150×0.970—×1.0030.00%
Home runs /BIP18.75%÷1.319×0.840—×1.00311.98%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 164, 1B 106, 2B 115, 3B 130, K 97, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .516 → .356; ISO .480 → .303; BABIP .462 → .358. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2014 AAACharlotte Knights · 53 PAwOBA .364 → .316 (−48)K% 30.2% → 37.1%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA30.19%÷0.975×1.200——37.14%
BB% (unintentional) /PA1.89%÷1.012×0.690—×1.0501.35%
HBP% /PA3.77%—×0.940—×1.0503.72%
Singles /BIP38.24%÷0.966×0.930—×1.05038.67%
Doubles /BIP8.82%÷0.977×0.830—×1.0507.87%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷0.910×0.970—×1.0500.00%
Home runs /BIP2.94%÷1.118×0.840—×1.0502.32%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 124, 1B 93, 2B 95, 3B 82, K 95, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.2 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .364 → .316; ISO .120 → .091; BABIP .485 → .476. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2013 AAACharlotte Knights · 188 PAwOBA .413 → .392 (−21)K% 19.1% → 22.5%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA19.15%÷1.023×1.200——22.47%
BB% (unintentional) /PA6.38%÷0.939×0.690—×1.0504.93%
HBP% /PA1.06%—×0.940—×1.0501.05%
Singles /BIP36.23%÷1.004×0.930×1.050×1.05037.01%
Doubles /BIP5.07%÷1.006×0.830×1.050×1.0504.62%
Triples /BIP1.45%÷0.900×0.970×1.050×1.0501.72%
Home runs /BIP4.35%÷0.972×0.840—×1.0503.95%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 94, 1B 101, 2B 101, 3B 80, K 105, BB 88 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (5.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.

Result: wOBA .413 → .392; ISO .167 → .154; BABIP .447 → .451. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2013 A+Lakeland Flying Tigers · 28 PAwOBA .502 → .424 (−78)K% 3.6% → 5.0%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA3.57%÷1.018×1.420——4.98%
BB% (unintentional) /PA14.29%÷1.045×0.750—×1.01210.38%
HBP% /PA0.00%—×0.930—×1.0120.00%
Singles /BIP30.43%÷1.011×0.920—×1.01228.03%
Doubles /BIP0.00%÷0.944×0.960—×1.0120.00%
Triples /BIP8.70%÷1.150×0.810—×1.0126.20%
Home runs /BIP4.35%÷1.067×0.880—×1.0123.63%

Factors used: league row FSL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 113, 1B 102, 2B 89, 3B 130, K 104, BB 109 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .502 → .424; ISO .292 → .230; BABIP .409 → .355. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .