Logan Webb — OGILVIE

Logan Webb P San Francisco Giants

Age 29 RHP 6'2" / 221 lbs MLB Svc 6.0 · Ctrl thru 2028 peak 5.6 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION104 act + 79 ip · rates below = ROS only

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 9787vR 78

ERA3.29

FIP3.17

K%20.7%

BB%5.9%

K-BB%14.8%

ROS IP79

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 183 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—50

STUF5055

CTRL5050

CMD4550

K†5555

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p2192.4

Whiff%

p1219.9%

p3119.4%

xwOBA vs

p530.309

FB+2.6 (44%)

CH (24%)

SI (31%)

SL (19%)

CT-2.1 (13%)

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status FA

MLB Debut 2019

Service 6.256 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2028

First FA Year 2027

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext	$7M	+1.8	$15M	+$8M
2027	Ext	$18M	+3.7	$27M	+$11M
2028	Ext	$18M	+3.0	$21M	+$6M
Totals		$43M		$63M	+$25M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2016	19	A	Augusta GreenJackets	9	9	42	194	30	12	7	100%	4.7	11.4%	7.3%	4.1%	7.0%	6.21	6.91	—
2016	19	A	Augusta GreenJackets	9	9	42	194	30	12	7	100%	4.7	15.5%	6.2%	9.3%	3.6%	6.21	4.70	—
2018	21	MIX	2 levels	27	26	105	434	100	46	6	96%	3.9	18.0%	12.1%	5.9%	2.2%	2.41	4.31	—
2018	21	MIX	2 levels	27	26	105	434	100	46	6	96%	3.9	23.0%	10.6%	12.4%	1.4%	2.41	3.25	—
2019	22	MIX	5 levels	20	18	103	435	106	29	7	90%	5.2	21.3%	7.7%	13.6%	2.4%	3.15	3.60	+2.2
2019	22	MIX	5 levels	20	18	103	435	106	29	7	90%	5.2	24.4%	6.7%	17.7%	1.6%	3.15	2.77	+3.2
2020	23	MLB	San Francisco Giants	13	11	54	246	46	23	4	85%	4.2	18.7%	9.3%	9.3%	1.8%	5.47	3.68	+0.6
2020	23	MLB	San Francisco Giants	13	11	54	246	46	23	4	85%	4.2	18.7%	9.3%	9.3%	1.6%	5.47	3.63	+0.6
2021	24	MIX	2 levels	28	27	150	603	159	37	9	96%	5.4	26.5%	6.0%	20.5%	1.6%	3.05	2.53	+5.1
2021	24	MIX	2 levels	28	27	150	603	159	37	9	96%	5.4	26.4%	6.1%	20.2%	1.5%	3.05	2.50	+5.1
2022	25	MLB	San Francisco Giants	32	32	192	787	163	49	11	100%	6.0	20.7%	6.2%	14.5%	1.5%	2.90	2.97	+5.5
2022	25	MLB	San Francisco Giants	32	32	192	787	163	49	11	100%	6.0	20.7%	6.2%	14.5%	1.4%	2.90	2.91	+5.6
2023	26	MLB	San Francisco Giants	33	33	216	850	194	31	20	100%	6.5	22.8%	3.6%	19.2%	2.6%	3.25	3.04	+6.0
2023	26	MLB	San Francisco Giants	33	33	216	850	194	31	20	100%	6.5	22.8%	3.6%	19.2%	2.4%	3.25	2.94	+6.2
2024	27	MLB	San Francisco Giants	33	33	205	841	172	47	11	100%	6.2	20.5%	5.6%	14.9%	1.4%	3.47	2.86	+6.1
2024	27	MLB	San Francisco Giants	33	33	205	841	172	47	11	100%	6.2	20.5%	5.6%	14.9%	1.3%	3.47	2.81	+6.2
2025	28	MLB	San Francisco Giants	34	34	207	856	224	46	14	100%	6.1	26.2%	5.4%	20.8%	1.8%	3.22	2.55	+6.9
2025	28	MLB	San Francisco Giants	34	34	207	856	224	46	14	100%	6.1	26.2%	5.4%	20.8%	1.6%	3.22	2.48	+7.1
▸ 2026 Season
2026	29	MLB	San Francisco Giants	17	17	104	427	82	29	8	100%	6.1	19.4%	6.3%	13.1%	1.9%	3.73	3.33	+2.5
ROS	29	MLB	SF	13	13	79	334	69	20	7	100%	6.1	20.7%	5.9%	14.8%	2.0%	3.29	3.17	+1.7
ROS	29	MLB	SF	13	13	79	334	69	20	6	100%	6.1	20.7%	5.9%	14.8%	1.9%	3.24	3.12	+1.7
2026 TOT	29	MLB	SF	—	—	183	761	151	49	15	—	—	19.9%	6.4%	13.5%	1.9%	3.54	3.26	+4.6
2026 FULL	29	MLB	SF	—	—	179	757	151	49	14	—	—	20.0%	6.4%	13.5%	1.9%	3.59	3.26	+4.5
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	30	MLB	SF	32	32	191	806	165	50	17	100%	6.0	20.4%	6.2%	14.3%	2.2%	3.68	3.72	+3.8
2028	31	MLB	SF	30	30	178	752	148	49	18	100%	5.9	19.7%	6.5%	13.2%	2.4%	3.84	3.95	+3.0
2029	32	MLB	SF	27	27	165	695	131	48	18	100%	6.1	18.9%	6.9%	12.0%	2.6%	4.06	4.20	+2.3
2030	33	MLB	SF	25	25	151	638	115	47	19	100%	6.0	18.0%	7.4%	10.7%	2.9%	4.31	4.48	+1.6
2031	34	MLB	SF	23	23	138	581	99	46	19	100%	6.0	17.1%	7.9%	9.3%	3.2%	4.60	4.79	+1.0
2032	35	MLB	SF	21	21	123	521	84	44	18	100%	5.9	16.2%	8.4%	7.8%	3.5%	4.91	5.12	+0.4
2033	36	MLB	SF	18	18	109	461	70	42	18	100%	6.1	15.2%	9.0%	6.1%	3.9%	5.26	5.49	-0.1
2027	30	MLB	SF	32	32	191	806	165	50	17	100%	6.0	20.4%	6.2%	14.3%	2.1%	3.63	3.67	+3.9
2028	31	MLB	SF	30	30	178	752	148	49	17	100%	5.9	19.7%	6.5%	13.2%	2.3%	3.79	3.90	+3.1
2029	32	MLB	SF	28	28	165	697	132	48	18	100%	5.9	18.9%	6.9%	12.0%	2.5%	4.00	4.14	+2.4
2030	33	MLB	SF	25	25	151	638	115	47	18	100%	6.0	18.0%	7.4%	10.7%	2.8%	4.25	4.42	+1.7
2031	34	MLB	SF	23	23	138	583	100	46	18	100%	6.0	17.1%	7.9%	9.3%	3.1%	4.53	4.72	+1.1
2032	35	MLB	SF	20	20	123	519	84	44	18	100%	6.2	16.2%	8.4%	7.8%	3.4%	4.83	5.04	+0.5
2033	36	MLB	SF	18	18	109	460	70	41	17	100%	6.1	15.2%	9.0%	6.1%	3.8%	5.17	5.40	-0.0
▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections)
Career	—			385	382	2296	9549	1956	616	210	99%	6.0	20.5%	6.5%	14.0%	2.2%	3.78	3.40	+53.8
/ 200 IP	—			34	33	200	832	170	54	18	99%	6.0	20.5%	6.5%	14.0%	2.2%	3.78	3.40	+4.7
Career	—			246	240	1378	5673	1235	359	117	98%	5.6	21.8%	6.3%	15.4%	2.1%	3.35	3.20	+35.5
/ 200 IP	—			36	35	200	823	179	52	17	98%	5.6	21.8%	6.3%	15.4%	2.1%	3.35	3.20	+5.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Logan Webb (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.25	23.5%	5.3%	2.0%	—	3.94	19.7%	13.2%	534	+0.69	—	—	—
Johnny Cueto R 2026 · 3.47 FIP	29	SP	3.47	20.3%	5.2%	2.6%	.277	3.60	21.4%	15.2%	420	+0.13	2.85	1,148	35
Merrill Kelly R 2027 · 4.21 FIP	30	SP	4.21	20.3%	6.8%	3.6%	.289	3.67	21.1%	14.8%	390	-0.54	3.54	1,102	35
Lance Lynn R 2025 · 3.24 FIP	28	SP	3.24	22.2%	8.4%	1.7%	.313	4.07	21.2%	11.4%	343	+0.83	2.87	1,390	34
Ubaldo Jiménez R 2028 · 3.67 FIP	31	SP	3.67	21.2%	8.5%	2.4%	.302	4.58	20.6%	10.5%	285	+0.91	3.67	469	34
Félix Hernández R 2026 · 3.65 FIP	29	SP	3.65	23.1%	7.0%	2.9%	.283	4.68	19.3%	10.6%	409	+1.03	3.65	682	34
Mike Fiers R 2027 · 3.72 FIP	30	SP	3.72	23.7%	7.8%	3.0%	.277	4.56	19.9%	13.3%	494	+0.84	3.72	918	33
Jesse Chavez R 2028 · 3.80 FIP	31	SP	3.80	20.2%	6.8%	2.8%	.309	4.37	22.0%	16.2%	300	+0.57	2.03	804	33
Jason Hammel R 2029 · 3.43 FIP	32	SP	3.43	24.2%	5.1%	3.2%	.282	4.26	18.4%	11.9%	474	+0.83	3.43	645	33
Rick Porcello R 2026 · 3.68 FIP	29	SP	3.68	23.5%	5.9%	3.3%	.276	4.10	19.1%	13.5%	233	+0.42	3.14	1,023	33
Miles Mikolas R 2026 · 3.06 FIP	29	SP	3.06	18.1%	3.1%	2.0%	.274	4.03	18.2%	13.7%	248	+0.97	3.06	1,275	32
Jordan Zimmermann R 2026 · 3.57 FIP	29	SP	3.57	19.7%	4.3%	2.9%	.297	4.88	16.1%	10.7%	417	+1.31	3.57	731	32
Tyson Ross R 2025 · 2.82 FIP	28	SP	2.82	25.8%	9.8%	1.2%	.313	4.52	17.6%	6.7%	217	+1.70	2.82	449	32
Mike Leake R 2026 · 3.72 FIP	29	SP	3.72	16.6%	4.3%	2.7%	.303	4.40	15.2%	11.7%	383	+0.68	3.65	937	32
Tom Koehler R 2026 · 4.42 FIP	29	SP	4.42	17.1%	9.2%	2.9%	.279	4.51	20.3%	10.8%	287	+0.09	4.39	474	32
Jeff Samardzija R 2027 · 3.96 FIP	30	SP	3.96	17.9%	5.4%	3.1%	.297	3.96	21.5%	16.0%	473	-0.00	3.63	885	32
Edinson Volquez R 2029 · 3.72 FIP	32	SP	3.72	18.2%	8.4%	2.0%	.286	4.33	17.6%	7.6%	282	+0.61	3.72	498	32
Collin McHugh R 2026 · 3.69 FIP	29	SP	3.69	22.2%	6.7%	3.0%	.335	3.31	26.5%	18.5%	225	-0.38	1.79	806	32
Yovani Gallardo R 2026 · 3.91 FIP	29	SP	3.91	15.3%	8.6%	1.8%	.302	4.80	15.8%	5.6%	393	+0.89	3.91	577	31
Josh Lowey R 2027 · 3.30 FIP	30	SP	3.30	21.1%	7.8%	1.8%	.311	2.34	26.7%	20.1%	231	-0.96	2.28	426	31
Jimmy Nelson R 2025 · 2.87 FIP	28	SP	2.87	27.3%	6.5%	2.3%	.333	4.37	26.9%	12.3%	62	+1.50	1.32	650	31

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	Yrs	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	8	157	19.1%	7.0%	1.05	4.14
Dallas Keuchel ('23)	9	132	18.7%	7.3%	0.96	3.97
Adam Wainwright ('23) AS×3GG×2SS	9	125	18.6%	7.3%	1.03	4.25
Jon Lester ('21)	7	163	21.5%	7.2%	1.17	3.77
Wade Miley ('23)	8	136	18.2%	8.5%	1.07	4.20
Johnny Cueto ('23)	8	128	19.9%	6.1%	1.08	3.76
Jordan Montgomery ('24)	7	124	21.4%	6.9%	1.07	4.01