Logan Webb — OGILVIE

Logan Webb P San Francisco Giants

+4.3 WAR

Age 29 RHP 6'2" / 221 lbs MLB Svc 6.0 · Ctrl thru 2028 peak 4.3 · 2026

ERA3.22

FIP3.16

xFIP3.42

SIERA3.64

K%24.1%

BB%5.6%

K-BB%18.5%

IP203

trajectory · 10 yrs

4.3peak

2026

K†5555

FB Velo

p2392.6

Whiff%

p1420.2%

p3820.5%

xwOBA vs

p320.333

FB+2.6 (48%)

CH (23%)

SI (38%)

SL (21%)

CT-2.1 (8%)

Career (MLE) + Projections

Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	K%	BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2016	19	A	Augusta GreenJackets	9	9	42	194	30	12	7	11.4%	7.3%	5.3%	6.21	5.99	-0.5
2018	21	AA	Richmond Flying Squirrels	27	26	105	434	100	46	6	18.0%	12.1%	1.9%	2.41	4.15	+1.4
2019	22	MLB	San Francisco Giants	20	18	103	435	106	29	7	21.3%	7.7%	2.3%	3.15	3.57	+2.0
2020	23	MLB	San Francisco Giants	13	11	54	246	46	23	4	18.7%	9.3%	1.4%	5.47	3.49	+0.9
2021	24	MLB	San Francisco Giants	28	27	150	603	159	37	9	26.5%	6.0%	1.6%	3.05	2.51	+4.8
2022	25	MLB	San Francisco Giants	32	32	192	787	163	49	11	20.7%	6.2%	1.4%	2.90	2.90	+5.2
2023	26	MLB	San Francisco Giants	33	33	216	850	194	31	20	22.8%	3.6%	2.3%	3.25	2.89	+5.9
2024	27	MLB	San Francisco Giants	33	33	205	841	172	47	11	20.5%	5.6%	1.5%	3.47	2.88	+5.6
2025	28	MLB	San Francisco Giants	34	34	207	856	224	46	14	26.2%	5.4%	1.6%	3.22	2.47	+6.6
▸ 2026 Season
2026	29	MLB	San Francisco Giants	4	4	24	105	21	9	1	20.0%	8.6%	1.0%	5.25	3.02	+0.5
ROS	29	MLB	SF	30	30	165	696	153	43	12	22.0%	6.2%	1.7%	2.91	2.99	+4.3
2026 Total	29	MLB	SF	—	—	189	801	174	52	13	21.7%	6.5%	1.6%	3.20	2.99	+4.9
▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging
2027	30	MLB	SF	31	31	170	719	154	46	13	21.4%	6.3%	1.8%	3.39	3.46	+3.6
2028	31	MLB	SF	28	28	153	646	134	42	12	20.8%	6.5%	1.9%	3.49	3.56	+3.0
2029	32	MLB	SF	25	25	136	576	116	38	11	20.2%	6.6%	1.9%	3.60	3.68	+2.5
2030	33	MLB	SF	22	22	121	512	100	35	10	19.5%	6.8%	2.0%	3.72	3.81	+2.0
2031	34	MLB	SF	19	19	107	452	85	32	10	18.8%	7.0%	2.1%	3.85	3.94	+1.7
2032	35	MLB	SF	17	17	94	396	72	29	9	18.1%	7.2%	2.2%	4.00	4.10	+1.2
2033	36	MLB	SF	15	15	82	345	60	26	8	17.3%	7.5%	2.4%	4.16	4.26	+0.8
2034	37	MLB	SF	13	13	70	298	55	21	7	18.5%	7.0%	2.5%	4.16	4.16	+0.7
2035	38	MLB	SF	11	11	60	255	45	18	7	17.6%	7.3%	2.6%	4.27	4.35	+0.4
2036	39	MLB	SF	52	—	52	218	37	16	6	16.8%	7.6%	2.8%	4.43	4.54	+0.2
▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected)
Career	—			233	227	1298	5351	1173	342	100	21.9%	6.4%	1.9%	3.36	3.08	+32.7
/ 200 IP	—			36	35	200	824	181	53	15	21.9%	6.4%	1.9%	3.36	3.08	+5.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Logan Webb (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.28	23.0%	5.6%	1.9%	—	3.56	20.8%	14.4%	460	+0.28	—	—	—
Yovani Gallardo R 2026 · 3.91 FIP	29	SP	3.91	15.3%	8.6%	1.8%	.302	4.74	15.8%	5.6%	393	+0.83	3.91	577	35
Tom Koehler R 2026 · 4.43 FIP	29	SP	4.43	17.1%	9.2%	2.9%	.279	4.50	20.3%	10.8%	287	+0.07	4.37	474	34
Toru Murata R 2027 · 4.02 FIP	30	SP	4.02	13.3%	6.9%	2.1%	.261	3.63	12.9%	7.2%	102	-0.39	3.63	267	34
Mike Pelfrey R 2028 · 3.70 FIP	31	SP	3.70	12.0%	6.2%	1.5%	.326	5.27	12.5%	2.9%	239	+1.57	3.70	404	34
Elih Villanueva R 2026 · 3.82 FIP	29	SP	3.82	11.0%	5.5%	1.7%	.269	5.50	14.1%	8.1%	57	+1.68	3.82	225	34
Jeff Samardzija R 2027 · 3.88 FIP	30	SP	3.88	17.9%	5.4%	2.9%	.297	4.09	21.5%	16.0%	473	+0.21	3.88	885	33
Johnny Cueto R 2026 · 3.43 FIP	29	SP	3.43	20.3%	5.2%	2.5%	.277	3.70	21.4%	15.2%	420	+0.27	2.87	1,148	33
Edinson Volquez R 2029 · 3.69 FIP	32	SP	3.69	18.2%	8.4%	2.0%	.286	4.34	17.6%	7.6%	282	+0.65	3.69	498	33
Ubaldo Jiménez R 2028 · 3.63 FIP	31	SP	3.63	21.2%	8.5%	2.3%	.302	4.61	20.6%	10.5%	285	+0.98	3.63	469	33
Kyle Davies R 2028 · 3.55 FIP	31	SP	3.55	13.8%	6.1%	1.5%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	3.55	153	32
Merrill Kelly R 2027 · 4.37 FIP	30	SP	4.37	20.3%	6.8%	3.9%	.289	3.76	21.1%	14.8%	390	-0.61	3.61	1,008	32
Mike Leake R 2026 · 3.60 FIP	29	SP	3.60	16.6%	4.3%	2.5%	.303	4.41	15.2%	11.7%	383	+0.81	3.60	937	32
Lance Lynn R 2025 · 3.34 FIP	28	SP	3.34	22.2%	8.4%	1.9%	.313	4.16	21.2%	11.4%	343	+0.82	2.87	1,390	32
Chris Volstad R 2026 · 4.30 FIP	29	SP	4.30	10.1%	4.9%	2.6%	.295	4.30	12.5%	7.6%	185	-0.00	3.13	517	32
Terry Doyle R 2026 · 3.20 FIP	29	SP	3.20	14.5%	3.6%	1.6%	.262	2.82	11.7%	6.1%	35	-0.38	2.82	193	32
Cory Riordan R 2027 · 4.21 FIP	30	SP	4.21	14.3%	5.0%	3.1%	.341	—	—	—	—	—	4.21	154	32
Marco Estrada R 2029 · 4.19 FIP	32	SP	4.19	18.1%	7.3%	3.1%	.213	4.56	20.6%	12.0%	506	+0.37	4.10	710	31
Zach Petrick R 2023 · 3.38 FIP	26	SP	3.38	14.8%	4.2%	1.8%	.322	—	—	—	—	—	3.38	157	31
Jesse Chavez R 2028 · 3.95 FIP	31	SP	3.95	20.2%	6.8%	3.1%	.309	4.27	22.0%	16.2%	300	+0.32	2.03	804	31
Kyle Gibson R 2026 · 4.30 FIP	29	SP	4.30	18.6%	8.6%	3.1%	.323	4.07	21.7%	12.9%	424	-0.23	3.61	1,689	30

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status FA

MLB Debut 2019

Service 6.256 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2028

First FA Year 2029

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	Ext / FA-deal	$18M	+4.3	$34M	+$16M
2027	Ext / FA-deal	$18M	+3.6	$30M	+$12M
2028	Ext / FA-deal	$18M	+3.0	$25M	+$7M
Totals		$54M		$90M	+$36M