Dillon Dingler
C Detroit Tigers| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 25 | AAADET | 301 | .308/.385/.559 | 17 | 5 | 109 | — | .250/.311/.471 |
| 2024 | 25 | MLBDET | 87 | .167/.195/.310 | 1 | 0 | 39 | 0.5 | |
| 2025 | 26 | MLBDET | 469 | .278/.327/.425 | 13 | 0 | 115 | 4.7 | |
| 2026 | 27 | MLBDET | 607 | .243/.304/.446 | 27 | 0 | 113 | 3.8 | |
| 2027PROJ | 28 | MLBDET | 445 | .257/.315/.437 | 16 | 1 | 115 | 3.4 | |
| 2028PROJ | 29 | MLBDET | 445 | .255/.312/.431 | 16 | 0 | 112 | 3.1 | |
| 2029PROJ | 30 | MLBDET | 445 | .251/.308/.423 | 16 | 0 | 109 | 2.9 |
Tools · Recent Form · Splits · ContractCON 60 / POW 50
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run 1-3 WAR low.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 22 | AA | Erie SeaWolves | — | 208 | 188 | 38 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 9 | 62 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 202 | 268 | 314 | 582 | 112 | 272 | 30 | 4 | 262 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 22 | A+ | West Michigan Whitecaps | — | 141 | 122 | 35 | 6 | 1 | 8 | 13 | 36 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 287 | 379 | 549 | 928 | 262 | 342 | 26 | 9 | 403 | 98 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | AA | Erie SeaWolves | — | 448 | 387 | 92 | 22 | 3 | 14 | 45 | 143 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 238 | 335 | 419 | 753 | 181 | 335 | 32 | 10 | 336 | 67 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | AAA | Toledo Mud Hens | — | 109 | 99 | 20 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 34 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 202 | 269 | 384 | 652 | 182 | 270 | 31 | 7 | 287 | 41 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | AA | Erie SeaWolves | — | 219 | 182 | 46 | 11 | 0 | 9 | 27 | 63 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 253 | 372 | 462 | 833 | 209 | 333 | 29 | 12 | 370 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | A | Lakeland Flying Tigers | — | 53 | 43 | 17 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 7 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 395 | 509 | 767 | 1.277 | 372 | 419 | 15 | 13 | 541 | 155 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | MLB | Detroit Tigers | — | 87 | 84 | 14 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 30 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 167 | 195 | 310 | 505 | 143 | 245 | 34 | 3 | 221 | 39 | -6 | +0 | +3 | +7 | +2 | 0.5 |
| 2024 | 25 | AAA | Toledo Mud Hens | — | 301 | 263 | 81 | 15 | 0 | 17 | 30 | 61 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 308 | 385 | 559 | 944 | 251 | 337 | 20 | 10 | 406 | 109 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 26 | MLB | Detroit Tigers | — | 469 | 435 | 121 | 21 | 2 | 13 | 23 | 110 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 278 | 327 | 425 | 752 | 147 | 345 | 23 | 5 | 334 | 115 | +8 | +0 | +19 | +8 | +10 | 4.7 |
| 2026 | 27 | MLB | Detroit Tigers | — | 607 | 551 | 134 | 27 | 2 | 27 | 34 | 139 | 15 | 0 | 0 | 243 | 304 | 446 | 750 | 203 | 274 | 23 | 6 | 329 | 113 | +10 | +0 | +3 | +11 | +13 | 3.8 |
| ▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MLB Career | — | — | 1163 | 1070 | 269 | 53 | 6 | 41 | 60 | 279 | 24 | 0 | 0 | 251 | 305 | 427 | 732 | 176 | 302 | 24 | 5 | 323 | 105 | +6 | +0 | +25 | +26 | +25 | 8.5 | ||
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 22 | AA MLE | Erie SeaWolves | — | 208 | 190 | 33 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 74 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 174 | 234 | 258 | 492 | 84 | 247 | 36 | 3 | 216 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 22 | A+ MLE | West Michigan Whitecaps | — | 141 | 126 | 29 | 5 | 1 | 7 | 9 | 51 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 230 | 307 | 452 | 760 | 222 | 293 | 36 | 6 | 313 | 98 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | AA MLE | Erie SeaWolves | — | 448 | 402 | 77 | 17 | 3 | 11 | 31 | 175 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 192 | 270 | 331 | 601 | 139 | 298 | 39 | 7 | 267 | 67 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | AAA MLE | Toledo Mud Hens | — | 109 | 101 | 17 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 41 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 168 | 222 | 297 | 519 | 129 | 247 | 38 | 6 | 229 | 41 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | AA MLE | Erie SeaWolves | — | 219 | 192 | 38 | 9 | 0 | 6 | 18 | 81 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 198 | 294 | 339 | 632 | 141 | 301 | 37 | 8 | 283 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | A MLE | Lakeland Flying Tigers | — | 53 | 46 | 14 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 11 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 304 | 396 | 565 | 961 | 261 | 353 | 21 | 8 | 397 | 155 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | MLB MLE | Detroit Tigers | — | 87 | 84 | 14 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 30 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 167 | 195 | 310 | 505 | 143 | 245 | 34 | 3 | 225 | 39 | -6 | +0 | +3 | +7 | +2 | 0.5 |
| 2024 | 25 | AAA MLE | Toledo Mud Hens | — | 301 | 272 | 68 | 12 | 0 | 16 | 21 | 72 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 250 | 311 | 471 | 781 | 221 | 266 | 24 | 7 | 329 | 109 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 26 | MLB MLE | Detroit Tigers | — | 469 | 438 | 123 | 21 | 2 | 14 | 21 | 110 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 281 | 327 | 434 | 761 | 153 | 345 | 23 | 4 | 337 | 115 | +8 | +0 | +19 | +8 | +10 | 4.7 |
| 2026 | 27 | MLB MLE | Detroit Tigers | — | 607 | 553 | 137 | 28 | 2 | 28 | 34 | 139 | 15 | 0 | 0 | 248 | 309 | 458 | 766 | 210 | 274 | 23 | 6 | 336 | 113 | +10 | +0 | +3 | +11 | +13 | 3.8 |
| 2021 | 22 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 349 | 316 | 60 | 7 | 3 | 10 | 16 | 124 | 13 | 1 | 0 | 190 | 258 | 326 | 584 | 136 | 269 | 36 | 5 | 255 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 22 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 349 | 310 | 73 | 9 | 4 | 12 | 22 | 98 | 13 | 1 | 0 | 235 | 313 | 406 | 719 | 171 | 299 | 28 | 6 | 319 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | AA MLE | Erie SeaWolves | — | 448 | 402 | 77 | 17 | 3 | 11 | 31 | 175 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 192 | 270 | 331 | 601 | 139 | 301 | 39 | 7 | 267 | 67 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | AA RAW | Erie SeaWolves | — | 448 | 387 | 92 | 22 | 3 | 14 | 45 | 143 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 238 | 335 | 419 | 753 | 181 | 335 | 32 | 10 | 336 | 67 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 381 | 339 | 70 | 18 | 1 | 11 | 28 | 134 | 12 | 6 | 1 | 206 | 290 | 363 | 653 | 156 | 301 | 35 | 7 | 283 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | AA RAW | 3 teams | — | 381 | 324 | 83 | 22 | 1 | 16 | 42 | 105 | 12 | 6 | 1 | 256 | 361 | 478 | 840 | 222 | 327 | 28 | 11 | 370 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 388 | 356 | 82 | 17 | 2 | 17 | 24 | 102 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 230 | 285 | 433 | 717 | 202 | 269 | 26 | 6 | 306 | 93 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 388 | 347 | 95 | 20 | 2 | 18 | 33 | 91 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 274 | 342 | 499 | 841 | 225 | 317 | 23 | 9 | 364 | 93 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 26 | MLB MLE | Detroit Tigers | — | 469 | 438 | 123 | 21 | 2 | 14 | 21 | 110 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 281 | 327 | 434 | 761 | 153 | 346 | 23 | 4 | 337 | 115 | +8 | +0 | +19 | +8 | +10 | 4.7 |
| 2025 | 26 | MLB RAW | Detroit Tigers | — | 469 | 435 | 121 | 21 | 2 | 13 | 23 | 110 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 278 | 327 | 425 | 752 | 147 | 345 | 23 | 5 | 334 | 115 | +8 | +0 | +19 | +8 | +10 | 4.7 |
| 2026 | 27 | MLB MLE | Detroit Tigers | — | 607 | 553 | 137 | 28 | 2 | 28 | 34 | 139 | 15 | 0 | 0 | 248 | 309 | 458 | 766 | 210 | 279 | 23 | 6 | 336 | 113 | +10 | +0 | +3 | +11 | +13 | 3.8 |
| 2026 | 27 | MLB RAW | Detroit Tigers | — | 607 | 551 | 134 | 27 | 2 | 27 | 34 | 139 | 15 | 0 | 0 | 243 | 304 | 446 | 750 | 203 | 274 | 23 | 6 | 329 | 113 | +10 | +0 | +3 | +11 | +13 | 3.8 |
| 2021 | 22 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 349 | 317 | 60 | 7 | 3 | 10 | 16 | 124 | 13 | 1 | 0 | 189 | 258 | 325 | 583 | 136 | 266 | 36 | 5 | 255 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | AA MLE | Erie SeaWolves | — | 448 | 402 | 77 | 17 | 3 | 11 | 31 | 175 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 192 | 270 | 331 | 601 | 139 | 298 | 39 | 7 | 267 | 67 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 381 | 338 | 70 | 18 | 1 | 11 | 28 | 134 | 12 | 6 | 1 | 207 | 290 | 364 | 654 | 157 | 293 | 35 | 7 | 283 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 388 | 358 | 82 | 17 | 2 | 17 | 24 | 102 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 229 | 285 | 430 | 715 | 201 | 261 | 26 | 6 | 306 | 93 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 26 | MLB MLE | Detroit Tigers | — | 469 | 436 | 123 | 21 | 2 | 14 | 21 | 110 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 282 | 327 | 436 | 763 | 154 | 345 | 23 | 4 | 337 | 115 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 27 | MLB MLE | Detroit Tigers | — | 607 | 553 | 137 | 28 | 2 | 28 | 34 | 139 | 15 | 0 | 0 | 248 | 309 | 458 | 766 | 210 | 274 | 23 | 6 | 336 | 113 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 25 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 388 | 358 | 82 | 17 | 2 | 17 | 24 | 102 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 229 | 285 | 430 | 715 | 201 | 261 | 26 | 6 | 306 | 93 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 26 | MLB MLE | Detroit Tigers | — | 469 | 436 | 123 | 21 | 2 | 14 | 21 | 110 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 282 | 327 | 436 | 763 | 154 | 345 | 23 | 4 | 337 | 115 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 27 | MLB MLE | Detroit Tigers | — | 607 | 553 | 137 | 28 | 2 | 28 | 34 | 139 | 15 | 0 | 0 | 248 | 309 | 458 | 766 | 210 | 274 | 23 | 6 | 336 | 113 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB MLE | DET | 100% | 527 | 481 | 125 | 24 | 2 | 20 | 30 | 122 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 262 | 320 | 449 | 768 | 187 | 308 | 23 | 6 | 338 | 115 | +9 | +0 | +10 | +9 | +11 | 3.7 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB CTX | DET | 100% | 445 | 407 | 104 | 20 | 2 | 16 | 26 | 103 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 257 | 315 | 437 | 752 | 180 | 303 | 23 | 6 | 331 | 115 | +8 | +0 | +8 | +8 | +10 | 3.4 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 29 | MLB MLE | DET | 100% | 445 | 408 | 106 | 20 | 2 | 17 | 25 | 104 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 260 | 317 | 442 | 759 | 183 | 307 | 23 | 6 | 334 | 112 | +6 | +0 | +7 | +8 | +10 | 3.1 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB MLE | DET | 100% | 445 | 408 | 104 | 20 | 2 | 16 | 25 | 105 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 256 | 313 | 434 | 747 | 178 | 304 | 24 | 6 | 329 | 109 | +5 | +0 | +6 | +8 | +10 | 2.9 |
| 2030 | 31 | MLB MLE | DET | 100% | 426 | 391 | 99 | 19 | 2 | 15 | 24 | 102 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 252 | 308 | 423 | 731 | 172 | 301 | 24 | 6 | 322 | 104 | +2 | +0 | +5 | +8 | +9 | 2.5 |
| 2031 | 32 | MLB MLE | DET | 100% | 407 | 374 | 91 | 17 | 1 | 14 | 22 | 100 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 245 | 301 | 409 | 710 | 164 | 296 | 25 | 5 | 314 | 98 | -1 | +0 | +4 | +7 | +9 | 2.0 |
| 2032 | 33 | MLB MLE | DET | 100% | 386 | 356 | 84 | 15 | 1 | 12 | 20 | 97 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 238 | 292 | 392 | 683 | 154 | 289 | 25 | 5 | 303 | 91 | -4 | +0 | +3 | +7 | +8 | 1.4 |
| 2033 | 34 | MLB MLE | DET | 96% | 314 | 290 | 65 | 11 | 1 | 9 | 16 | 81 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 228 | 281 | 371 | 651 | 143 | 280 | 26 | 5 | 290 | 82 | -7 | +0 | +1 | +6 | +7 | 0.7 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB CTX | DET | 100% | 445 | 408 | 104 | 20 | 2 | 16 | 25 | 104 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 255 | 312 | 431 | 743 | 176 | 301 | 23 | 6 | 327 | 112 | +6 | +0 | +7 | +8 | +10 | 3.1 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB CTX | DET | 100% | 445 | 408 | 104 | 20 | 2 | 16 | 25 | 105 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 251 | 308 | 423 | 731 | 171 | 299 | 24 | 6 | 323 | 109 | +5 | +0 | +6 | +8 | +10 | 2.9 |
| 2030 | 31 | MLB CTX | DET | 100% | 426 | 391 | 96 | 18 | 2 | 14 | 24 | 102 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 247 | 303 | 412 | 716 | 166 | 296 | 24 | 6 | 316 | 104 | +2 | +0 | +5 | +8 | +9 | 2.5 |
| 2031 | 32 | MLB CTX | DET | 100% | 407 | 374 | 90 | 17 | 1 | 13 | 22 | 100 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 241 | 296 | 399 | 695 | 158 | 291 | 25 | 5 | 308 | 98 | -1 | +0 | +4 | +7 | +9 | 2.0 |
| 2032 | 33 | MLB CTX | DET | 100% | 386 | 356 | 83 | 15 | 1 | 12 | 20 | 97 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 233 | 288 | 382 | 669 | 149 | 284 | 25 | 5 | 297 | 91 | -4 | +0 | +3 | +7 | +8 | 1.4 |
| 2033 | 34 | MLB CTX | DET | 96% | 300 | 277 | 63 | 11 | 1 | 9 | 15 | 77 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 224 | 277 | 361 | 638 | 138 | 276 | 26 | 5 | 284 | 82 | -6 | +0 | +1 | +5 | +6 | 0.6 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 3572 | 3284 | 809 | 154 | 15 | 121 | 191 | 864 | 70 | 0 | 0 | 246 | 302 | 413 | 714 | 167 | 297 | 24 | 5 | 315 | 97 | +9 | +0 | +51 | +69 | +77 | 21.0 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 598 | 147 | 28 | 3 | 22 | 35 | 157 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 246 | 302 | 413 | 715 | 167 | 296 | 24 | 5 | 315 | 97 | +2 | +0 | +9 | +13 | +14 | 3.8 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 5510 | 5038 | 1205 | 231 | 24 | 191 | 312 | 1476 | 119 | 14 | 2 | 239 | 299 | 408 | 707 | 169 | 298 | 27 | 6 | 311 | 97 | +16 | +0 | +59 | +77 | +87 | 24.5 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 594 | 143 | 27 | 3 | 23 | 37 | 174 | 14 | 2 | 0 | 241 | 301 | 412 | 713 | 172 | 299 | 27 | 6 | 311 | 97 | +3 | +0 | +10 | +12 | +14 | 3.9 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2024 AAAToledo Mud Hens · 301 PAwOBA .401 → .329 (−72)K% 20.3% → 23.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.27% | ÷1.022 | ×1.200 | — | — | 23.80% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.97% | ÷1.016 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.018 | 6.89% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.00% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.018 | 0.95% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.26% | ÷1.117 | ×0.930 | ×0.950 | ×1.018 | 19.53% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.43% | ÷1.049 | ×0.830 | ×0.950 | ×1.018 | 5.68% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.070 | ×0.970 | ×0.950 | ×1.018 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 8.42% | ÷0.792 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.018 | 7.57% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 58, 1B 123, 2B 110, 3B 114, K 104, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .401 → .329; ISO .251 → .222; BABIP .337 → .266. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AAErie SeaWolves · 219 PAwOBA .362 → .283 (−79)K% 28.8% → 37.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 28.77% | ÷0.944 | ×1.220 | — | — | 37.20% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.33% | ÷1.063 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.998 | 8.10% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.65% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.998 | 3.10% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.85% | ÷1.002 | ×0.970 | ×0.966 | ×0.998 | 20.39% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.24% | ÷0.924 | ×0.860 | ×0.966 | ×0.998 | 8.30% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.145 | ×0.950 | ×0.966 | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 7.56% | ÷1.055 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.998 | 5.58% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 111, 1B 100, 2B 85, 3B 129, K 89, BB 113 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.966.
Result: wOBA .362 → .283; ISO .209 → .155; BABIP .333 → .301. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AAAToledo Mud Hens · 109 PAwOBA .282 → .229 (−53)K% 31.2% → 37.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 31.19% | ÷0.995 | ×1.200 | — | — | 37.61% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.34% | ÷1.006 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.033 | 5.20% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.92% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.033 | 0.89% |
| Singles /BIP | 13.85% | ÷0.965 | ×0.930 | ×1.047 | ×1.033 | 14.43% |
| Doubles /BIP | 10.77% | ÷1.156 | ×0.830 | ×1.047 | ×1.033 | 8.36% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.54% | ÷1.150 | ×0.970 | ×1.047 | ×1.033 | 1.40% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.62% | ÷0.901 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.033 | 3.70% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 80, 1B 93, 2B 131, 3B 130, K 99, BB 101 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.047.
Result: wOBA .282 → .229; ISO .182 → .138; BABIP .270 → .247. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 ALakeland Flying Tigers · 53 PAwOBA .527 → .397 (−130)K% 15.1% → 21.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 15.09% | ÷0.975 | ×1.360 | — | — | 21.05% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.21% | ÷1.089 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.970 | 8.12% |
| HBP% /PA | 5.66% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×0.970 | 4.28% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.71% | ÷0.957 | ×0.920 | — | ×0.970 | 23.98% |
| Doubles /BIP | 11.43% | ÷1.056 | ×0.830 | — | ×0.970 | 8.71% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.020 | ×0.910 | — | ×0.970 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 11.43% | ÷1.216 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.970 | 7.29% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 143, 1B 91, 2B 111, 3B 104, K 95, BB 118 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 22.0 → −3.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.0 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .527 → .397; ISO .372 → .251; BABIP .419 → .353. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 AAErie SeaWolves · 448 PAwOBA .328 → .267 (−62)K% 31.9% → 39.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 31.92% | ÷0.995 | ×1.220 | — | — | 39.12% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.82% | ÷0.992 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.012 | 7.01% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.68% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×1.012 | 2.30% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.72% | ÷1.042 | ×0.970 | ×0.980 | ×1.012 | 20.07% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.02% | ÷1.042 | ×0.860 | ×0.980 | ×1.012 | 7.38% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.23% | ÷0.900 | ×0.950 | ×0.980 | ×1.012 | 1.29% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.74% | ÷0.926 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.012 | 4.89% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 85, 1B 108, 2B 108, 3B 80, K 99, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.980.
Result: wOBA .328 → .267; ISO .181 → .147; BABIP .335 → .298. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 AAErie SeaWolves · 208 PAwOBA .259 → .216 (−43)K% 29.8% → 35.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 29.81% | ÷1.026 | ×1.220 | — | — | 35.43% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 4.33% | ÷0.945 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.027 | 3.24% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.85% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×1.027 | 3.36% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.22% | ÷1.030 | ×0.940 | ×0.985 | ×1.027 | 20.52% |
| Doubles /BIP | 2.38% | ÷0.935 | ×0.870 | ×0.985 | ×1.027 | 2.24% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.38% | ÷1.150 | ×0.920 | ×0.985 | ×1.027 | 1.93% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.17% | ÷1.055 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.027 | 2.41% |
Factors used: level-wide AA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 111, 1B 106, 2B 87, 3B 130, K 105, BB 89 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.985.
Result: wOBA .259 → .216; ISO .112 → .085; BABIP .272 → .247. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 A+West Michigan Whitecaps · 141 PAwOBA .395 → .313 (−81)K% 25.5% → 35.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.53% | ÷0.959 | ×1.350 | — | — | 35.94% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.22% | ÷1.000 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.998 | 6.53% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.55% | — | ×0.810 | — | ×0.998 | 2.87% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.26% | ÷1.001 | ×0.910 | ×0.956 | ×0.998 | 20.18% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.98% | ÷0.935 | ×0.830 | ×0.956 | ×0.998 | 5.91% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.16% | ÷1.009 | ×0.820 | ×0.956 | ×0.998 | 0.90% |
| Home runs /BIP | 9.30% | ÷0.841 | ×0.830 | — | ×0.998 | 9.16% |
Factors used: level-wide A+ factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 68, 1B 100, 2B 87, 3B 102, K 92, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.956.
Result: wOBA .395 → .313; ISO .262 → .222; BABIP .342 → .293. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).