J.D. Davis

3B Salt Lake Bees

Age 34 R/R 6'1" / 218 lbs AAA K +5%HR +4% Svc 10.000 · Ctrl thru 2027

Overview

AAAExt / FA-dealFA 2028

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2023	30	MLBSF	546	.248/.328/.412	18	1	113	2.8
2024	31	AAABAL	136	.153/.228/.250	3	0	1	—	.125/.176/.188
2024	31	MLBNYY	157	.218/.293/.338	4	0	79	-1.1
2025	32	AAALAA	213	.294/.374/.524	10	6	86	—	.237/.299/.402
2026	33	No MLB games played
2027PROJ10% MLB	34	MLBLAA	18	.229/.294/.389	1	0	92	0.0
2028PROJ	35	MLBLAA	141	.218/.282/.365	4	1	82	-0.6

Last 3 seasons WAR 1.7 · Next 2 projected WAR -0.5Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2027Service10.000First FA2028

2027Ext / FA-deal$2M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2023-2025

Barrel%57

Bat Spd57

Avg EV56

xwOBA53

Speed12

CompsNick Hundley (age 34) · Edgard Clemente (age 34) · Miguel Olivo (age 35)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†vL 9592vR 84

AVG/OBP/SLG.229 / .294 / .389

PA18

HR1

K%28

BB%6

BABIP296

ISO235

MLB%10%

Value2027 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · Splits · ContractCON 40 / POW 50

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2023-2025

CONTACT40

xAVG

240.230

POWER50

Barrel%

579.3

Avg EV

5689.5

Bat Spd

5772.1

EYE55

scouting grade only

SPEED35

Sprint

1225.6

Platoon Splits2024 · 157 PA

vs LHP

vs RHP

Edge

102

—

wRC+

◀L

wOBA

288

284

—

ISO

143

108

◀◀L

BABIP

258

279

▶R

29.1%

22.6%

▶▶R

BB%

10.9%

5.9%

◀◀L

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status FA

MLB Debut 2017

Service 10.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2027

First FA Year 2028

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Ext / FA-deal	$2M	+0.0	$0.1M	-$2M
Totals		$2M		$0.1M	-$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2014	21	A	Quad Cities River Bandits	—	171	155	47	9	0	8	13	41	2	4	0	303	365	516	881	213	364	24	8	385	83	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	22	A+	Lancaster JetHawks	—	552	485	140	28	3	26	54	157	10	5	2	289	372	520	891	231	374	28	10	390	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	22	INTL	Glendale Desert Dogs	—	73	68	19	6	0	2	5	20	0	0	0	279	329	456	785	176	370	27	7	347	121	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	23	AA	Corpus Christi Hooks	—	539	485	130	34	1	23	45	143	5	1	3	268	336	485	821	216	331	27	8	359	83	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	24	MLB	Houston Astros	—	68	62	14	4	0	4	4	20	1	1	1	226	284	484	767	258	256	29	6	330	108	+1	-0	-0	+2	+1	0.3
2017	24	AAA	Fresno Grizzlies	—	73	61	18	5	0	5	9	18	0	0	0	295	386	623	1.009	328	317	25	12	416	135	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	24	AA	Corpus Christi Hooks	—	388	351	98	18	0	21	31	90	3	5	2	279	343	510	853	231	317	23	8	371	87	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	25	MLB	Houston Astros	—	113	103	18	2	0	1	10	29	0	0	0	175	248	223	471	49	233	26	9	223	36	-9	+0	-1	+2	+2	-0.5
2018	25	AAA	Fresno Grizzlies	—	377	333	114	25	2	17	36	69	3	3	0	342	411	583	994	240	385	18	10	428	131	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	26	MLB	New York Mets	—	453	410	126	22	1	22	38	97	3	3	0	307	370	527	897	220	355	21	8	392	155	+30	+1	-8	-5	+10	2.8
2020	27	MLB	New York Mets	—	229	190	47	9	0	6	31	56	7	0	0	247	373	389	762	142	318	24	14	348	124	+7	+0	-4	+1	+5	0.9
2021	28	MLB	New York Mets	—	211	179	51	12	0	5	24	68	6	1	0	285	388	436	823	151	426	32	11	368	139	+10	+0	-1	+1	+5	1.5
2021	28	AAA	Syracuse Mets	—	49	38	12	4	0	4	10	14	1	0	0	316	469	737	1.206	421	400	29	20	506	140	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	29	MLB	San Francisco Giants	—	365	318	79	16	1	12	39	122	6	1	1	248	342	418	760	170	360	33	11	340	120	+9	-0	-3	+1	+8	1.5
2023	30	MLB	San Francisco Giants	—	546	480	119	23	1	18	52	152	6	1	0	248	328	412	740	165	320	28	10	328	113	+8	+0	+5	+2	+12	2.8
2024	31	MLB	New York Yankees	—	157	142	31	5	0	4	12	39	3	0	0	218	293	338	631	120	273	25	8	288	79	-4	+0	-5	-5	+3	-1.1
2024	31	AAA	Norfolk Tides	—	136	124	19	3	0	3	11	59	1	0	0	153	228	250	478	97	258	43	8	223	1	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	32	AAA	Salt Lake Bees	—	213	187	55	11	1	10	21	56	3	6	1	294	374	524	898	230	366	26	10	391	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	2142	1884	485	93	3	72	210	583	32	7	2	257	342	425	766	167	332	27	10	341	117	+44	+1	-17	-1	+46	7.4
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2014	21	A MLE	Quad Cities River Bandits	—	171	159	38	7	0	6	9	56	2	4	0	239	288	396	684	157	323	33	5	291	83	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	22	A+ MLE	Lancaster JetHawks	—	552	501	111	20	2	21	38	228	10	5	2	222	290	395	685	174	345	41	7	295	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	23	AA MLE	Corpus Christi Hooks	—	539	496	113	28	1	15	34	165	5	1	3	228	284	379	663	151	305	31	6	291	83	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	24	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	—	68	62	14	4	0	4	4	20	1	1	1	226	284	484	767	258	256	29	6	329	108	+1	-0	-0	+2	+1	0.3
2017	24	AAA MLE	Fresno Grizzlies	—	73	64	17	5	0	4	6	23	0	0	0	266	329	531	860	266	295	32	8	368	135	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	24	AA MLE	Corpus Christi Hooks	—	388	362	85	16	0	16	20	112	3	5	2	235	281	412	692	177	286	29	5	297	87	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	25	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	—	113	103	18	2	0	1	10	29	0	0	0	175	248	223	471	49	233	26	9	222	36	-9	+0	-1	+2	+2	-0.5
2018	25	AAA MLE	Fresno Grizzlies	—	377	344	102	21	1	14	25	90	3	3	0	297	349	485	835	189	355	24	7	362	131	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	26	MLB MLE	New York Mets	—	453	412	129	23	1	22	36	97	3	3	0	313	373	534	906	221	355	21	8	397	155	+30	+1	-8	-5	+10	2.8
2020	27	MLB MLE	New York Mets	—	229	191	49	10	0	6	30	56	7	0	0	257	377	403	780	147	318	24	13	352	124	+7	+0	-4	+1	+5	0.9
2021	28	MLB MLE	New York Mets	—	211	180	53	13	0	5	23	68	6	1	0	294	392	450	842	156	426	32	11	373	139	+10	+0	-1	+1	+5	1.5
2021	28	AAA MLE	Syracuse Mets	—	49	41	11	4	0	3	7	17	1	0	0	268	388	585	973	317	340	35	14	375	140	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	29	MLB MLE	San Francisco Giants	—	365	319	81	16	1	13	38	122	6	1	1	254	344	433	777	179	360	33	10	345	120	+9	-0	-3	+1	+8	1.5
2023	30	MLB MLE	San Francisco Giants	—	546	482	121	23	1	19	52	152	6	1	0	251	331	421	753	170	320	28	10	335	113	+8	+0	+5	+2	+12	2.8
2024	31	MLB MLE	New York Yankees	—	157	142	31	5	0	4	12	39	3	0	0	218	293	338	631	120	273	25	8	285	79	-4	+0	-5	-5	+3	-1.1
2024	31	AAA MLE	Norfolk Tides	—	136	128	16	2	0	2	7	66	1	0	0	125	176	188	364	62	241	49	5	170	1	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	32	AAA MLE	Salt Lake Bees	—	213	194	46	9	1	7	14	69	3	6	1	237	299	402	701	165	311	32	7	296	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	21	A MLE	Quad Cities River Bandits	—	171	159	38	7	0	6	9	56	2	4	0	239	288	396	684	157	327	33	5	291	83	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	21	A RAW	Quad Cities River Bandits	—	171	155	47	9	0	8	13	41	2	4	0	303	365	516	881	213	364	24	8	385	83	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	22	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	625	570	126	23	2	24	42	258	10	5	2	221	286	395	681	174	351	41	7	295	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	22	A+ RAW	2 teams	—	625	553	159	34	3	28	59	177	10	5	2	288	367	512	878	224	373	28	9	385	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	23	AA MLE	Corpus Christi Hooks	—	539	496	113	28	1	15	34	165	5	1	3	228	284	379	663	151	306	31	6	291	83	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	23	AA RAW	Corpus Christi Hooks	—	539	485	130	34	1	23	45	143	5	1	3	268	336	485	821	216	331	27	8	359	83	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	24	AA MLE	3 teams	—	529	488	115	24	0	24	30	156	4	6	3	236	285	432	718	197	289	29	6	311	97	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	24	AA RAW	3 teams	—	529	474	130	27	0	30	44	128	4	6	3	274	341	521	862	247	310	24	8	372	97	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	25	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	490	447	120	23	1	15	35	119	3	3	0	268	326	425	751	157	330	24	7	330	109	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	25	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	490	436	132	27	2	18	46	98	3	3	0	303	373	498	871	195	351	20	9	381	109	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	26	MLB MLE	New York Mets	—	453	412	129	23	1	22	36	97	3	3	0	313	373	534	906	221	363	21	8	397	155	+30	+1	-8	-5	+10	2.8
2019	26	MLB RAW	New York Mets	—	453	410	126	22	1	22	38	97	3	3	0	307	370	527	897	220	355	21	8	392	155	+30	+1	-8	-5	+10	2.8
2020	27	MLB MLE	New York Mets	—	229	191	49	10	0	6	30	56	7	0	0	257	377	403	780	147	331	24	13	352	124	+7	+0	-4	+1	+5	0.9
2020	27	MLB RAW	New York Mets	—	229	190	47	9	0	6	31	56	7	0	0	247	373	389	762	142	318	24	14	348	124	+7	+0	-4	+1	+5	0.9
2021	28	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	260	221	62	16	0	8	30	85	7	1	0	281	384	462	845	181	415	33	12	374	139	+12	+0	-1	+1	+6	1.8
2021	28	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	260	217	63	16	0	9	34	82	7	1	0	290	403	488	892	198	422	32	13	394	139	+12	+0	-1	+1	+6	1.8
2022	29	MLB MLE	San Francisco Giants	—	365	319	81	16	1	13	38	122	6	1	1	254	344	433	777	179	366	33	10	345	120	+9	-0	-3	+1	+8	1.5
2022	29	MLB RAW	San Francisco Giants	—	365	318	79	16	1	12	39	122	6	1	1	248	342	418	760	170	360	33	11	340	120	+9	-0	-3	+1	+8	1.5
2023	30	MLB MLE	San Francisco Giants	—	546	482	121	23	1	19	52	152	6	1	0	251	331	421	753	170	322	28	10	335	113	+8	+0	+5	+2	+12	2.8
2023	30	MLB RAW	San Francisco Giants	—	546	480	119	23	1	18	52	152	6	1	0	248	328	412	740	165	320	28	10	328	113	+8	+0	+5	+2	+12	2.8
2024	31	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	293	270	47	7	0	6	19	105	4	0	0	174	239	267	506	93	258	36	6	232	43	-20	+0	-5	-5	+6	-2.4
2024	31	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	293	266	50	8	0	7	23	98	4	0	0	188	263	297	560	109	267	33	8	258	43	-20	+0	-5	-5	+6	-2.4
2025	32	AAA MLE	Salt Lake Bees	—	213	194	46	9	1	7	14	69	3	6	1	237	299	402	701	165	325	32	7	296	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	32	AAA RAW	Salt Lake Bees	—	213	187	55	11	1	10	21	56	3	6	1	294	374	524	898	230	366	26	10	391	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	21	A MLE	Quad Cities River Bandits	—	171	158	38	7	0	6	9	56	2	4	0	241	288	399	687	158	323	33	5	291	83	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	22	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	625	568	126	23	2	24	42	258	10	5	2	222	286	396	682	174	345	41	7	295	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	23	AA MLE	Corpus Christi Hooks	—	539	495	113	28	1	15	34	165	5	1	3	228	284	380	664	152	305	31	6	291	83	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	24	AA MLE	3 teams	—	529	490	115	24	0	24	30	156	4	6	3	235	285	431	716	196	283	29	6	311	97	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	25	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	490	449	120	23	1	15	35	119	3	3	0	267	326	423	749	156	327	24	7	330	109	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	26	MLB MLE	New York Mets	—	453	411	129	23	1	22	36	97	3	3	0	314	373	535	908	221	355	21	8	397	155	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	27	MLB MLE	New York Mets	—	229	190	49	10	0	6	30	56	7	0	0	258	377	405	782	147	318	24	13	352	124	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	28	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	260	221	62	16	0	8	30	85	7	1	0	281	384	462	845	181	410	33	12	374	139	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	29	MLB MLE	San Francisco Giants	—	365	318	81	16	1	13	38	122	6	1	1	255	344	434	778	179	360	33	10	345	120	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	30	MLB MLE	San Francisco Giants	—	546	483	121	23	1	19	52	152	6	1	0	251	331	420	752	170	320	28	10	335	113	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	31	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	293	268	47	7	0	6	19	105	4	0	0	175	239	269	508	93	258	36	6	232	43	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	32	AAA MLE	Salt Lake Bees	—	213	194	46	9	1	7	14	69	3	6	1	237	299	402	701	165	311	32	7	296	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	31	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	293	268	47	7	0	6	19	105	4	0	0	175	239	269	508	93	258	36	6	232	43	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	32	AAA MLE	Salt Lake Bees	—	213	194	46	9	1	7	14	69	3	6	1	237	299	402	701	165	311	32	7	296	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	34	MLB MLE	LAA	10%	285	259	59	11	1	9	20	83	4	4	2	231	295	390	685	159	299	29	7	304	92	-3	+0	-0	+1	+6	0.3
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	34	MLB CTX	LAA	10%	18	17	4	1	0	1	1	5	0	0	0	229	294	389	683	160	296	28	6	303	92	-0	+0	-0	+0	+0	0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	35	MLB MLE	LAA	100%	141	128	28	5	1	4	10	42	2	1	1	219	283	365	648	146	288	30	7	289	82	-3	-0	-6	+1	+3	-0.6
2028	35	MLB CTX	LAA	100%	141	128	28	5	1	4	10	42	2	1	1	218	282	365	646	147	286	30	7	288	82	-3	-0	-6	+1	+3	-0.6
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	2283	2012	513	98	4	76	220	625	34	8	3	255	338	421	759	166	330	27	10	338	103	+41	+0	-22	-1	+49	6.8
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	573	146	28	1	22	63	178	10	2	1	255	339	422	761	168	329	27	10	338	103	+12	+0	-6	-0	+14	1.9
Career	—	MLE		—	5032	4538	1113	221	10	175	392	1534	64	35	12	245	314	414	728	169	327	30	8	320	103	+39	+1	-23	-0	+53	7.1
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	586	144	29	1	23	51	198	8	5	2	246	315	416	731	171	327	30	8	320	103	+10	+0	-6	-0	+14	1.9

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2025 AAASalt Lake Bees · 213 PAwOBA .384 → .296 (−88)K% 26.3% → 32.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	26.29%	÷0.978	×1.200	—	—	32.26%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	9.86%	÷0.964	×0.690	—	×0.952	6.72%
HBP% /PA	1.41%	—	×0.940	—	×0.952	1.26%
Singles /BIP	25.19%	÷1.046	×0.930	×1.050	×0.952	22.40%
Doubles /BIP	8.40%	÷1.005	×0.830	×1.050	×0.952	6.93%
Triples /BIP	0.76%	÷1.079	×0.970	×1.050	×0.952	0.69%
Home runs /BIP	7.63%	÷0.989	×0.700	—	×0.952	5.14%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 98, 1B 109, 2B 101, 3B 116, K 96, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 32 vs a level average of 27.2 → −4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.

Result: wOBA .384 → .296; ISO .230 → .162; BABIP .366 → .311. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAANorfolk Tides · 136 PAwOBA .217 → .170 (−47)K% 43.4% → 48.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	43.38%	÷1.070	×1.200	—	—	48.65%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	8.09%	÷0.987	×0.690	—	×0.962	5.44%
HBP% /PA	0.74%	—	×0.940	—	×0.962	0.66%
Singles /BIP	20.00%	÷0.962	×0.930	×1.050	×0.962	19.53%
Doubles /BIP	4.62%	÷1.006	×0.830	×1.050	×0.962	3.85%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.900	×0.970	×1.050	×0.962	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	4.62%	÷0.996	×0.700	—	×0.962	3.12%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 99, 1B 92, 2B 101, 3B 80, K 114, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 31 vs a level average of 27.2 → −3.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.

Result: wOBA .217 → .170; ISO .097 → .066; BABIP .258 → .241. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAASyracuse Mets · 49 PAwOBA .493 → .375 (−118)K% 28.6% → 35.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	28.57%	÷0.966	×1.200	—	—	35.50%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	20.41%	÷1.006	×0.690	—	×0.992	13.88%
HBP% /PA	2.04%	—	×0.940	—	×0.992	1.90%
Singles /BIP	16.67%	÷1.032	×0.930	—	×0.992	14.89%
Doubles /BIP	16.67%	÷0.897	×0.830	—	×0.992	15.30%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.986	×0.920	—	×0.992	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	16.67%	÷1.039	×0.700	—	×0.992	11.13%

Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 108, 1B 106, 2B 79, 3B 97, K 93, BB 101 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .493 → .375; ISO .421 → .306; BABIP .400 → .340. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 AAAFresno Grizzlies · 377 PAwOBA .421 → .362 (−59)K% 18.3% → 24.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	18.30%	÷0.982	×1.290	—	—	24.03%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	9.28%	÷1.025	×0.710	—	×1.033	6.65%
HBP% /PA	0.80%	—	×0.980	—	×1.033	0.81%
Singles /BIP	26.52%	÷0.962	×0.900	×0.998	×1.033	25.58%
Doubles /BIP	9.47%	÷0.974	×0.810	×0.998	×1.033	8.11%
Triples /BIP	0.76%	÷1.150	×0.810	×0.998	×1.033	0.55%
Home runs /BIP	6.44%	÷0.951	×0.780	—	×1.033	5.46%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 90, 1B 92, 2B 95, 3B 130, K 96, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.998.

Result: wOBA .421 → .362; ISO .240 → .198; BABIP .385 → .355. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 AACorpus Christi Hooks · 388 PAwOBA .363 → .297 (−66)K% 23.2% → 28.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	23.20%	÷0.980	×1.220	—	—	28.88%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	7.73%	÷1.056	×0.700	—	×1.012	5.19%
HBP% /PA	0.77%	—	×0.870	—	×1.012	0.68%
Singles /BIP	22.61%	÷1.014	×0.920	×1.012	×1.012	21.01%
Doubles /BIP	6.90%	÷0.964	×0.840	×1.012	×1.012	6.16%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.900	×0.940	×1.012	×1.012	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	8.05%	÷1.035	×0.800	—	×1.012	6.29%

Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 107, 1B 103, 2B 93, 3B 80, K 96, BB 111 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.012.

Result: wOBA .363 → .297; ISO .231 → .181; BABIP .317 → .286. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 AAAFresno Grizzlies · 73 PAwOBA .417 → .368 (−50)K% 24.7% → 32.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	24.66%	÷0.992	×1.290	—	—	32.05%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	10.96%	÷1.028	×0.710	—	×1.048	7.93%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.980	—	×1.048	0.00%
Singles /BIP	18.60%	÷0.978	×0.900	—	×1.048	17.94%
Doubles /BIP	11.63%	÷0.926	×0.810	—	×1.048	10.65%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.150	×0.810	—	×1.048	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	11.63%	÷0.963	×0.780	—	×1.048	9.87%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 93, 1B 96, 2B 85, 3B 130, K 98, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 27.2 → +4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .417 → .368; ISO .328 → .289; BABIP .317 → .295. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2016 AACorpus Christi Hooks · 539 PAwOBA .351 → .291 (−60)K% 26.5% → 30.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	26.53%	÷1.055	×1.220	—	—	30.67%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	8.35%	÷0.932	×0.700	—	×1.027	6.44%
HBP% /PA	0.93%	—	×0.870	—	×1.027	0.83%
Singles /BIP	21.05%	÷0.967	×0.920	×1.006	×1.027	20.69%
Doubles /BIP	9.94%	÷1.017	×0.840	×1.006	×1.027	8.48%
Triples /BIP	0.29%	÷0.977	×0.940	×1.006	×1.027	0.29%
Home runs /BIP	6.73%	÷1.196	×0.800	—	×1.027	4.62%

Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 139, 1B 93, 2B 103, 3B 95, K 111, BB 86 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.006.

Result: wOBA .351 → .291; ISO .216 → .158; BABIP .331 → .305. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2015 A+Lancaster JetHawks · 552 PAwOBA .381 → .295 (−86)K% 28.4% → 41.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	28.44%	÷0.924	×1.340	—	—	41.26%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	9.78%	÷1.031	×0.710	—	×1.012	6.82%
HBP% /PA	1.81%	—	×0.790	—	×1.012	1.45%
Singles /BIP	25.30%	÷0.985	×0.910	×1.030	×1.012	24.37%
Doubles /BIP	8.54%	÷1.005	×0.820	×1.030	×1.012	7.26%
Triples /BIP	0.91%	÷1.150	×0.760	×1.030	×1.012	0.63%
Home runs /BIP	7.93%	÷0.964	×0.920	—	×1.012	7.66%

Factors used: league row CAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 93, 1B 97, 2B 101, 3B 130, K 85, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.030.

Result: wOBA .381 → .295; ISO .231 → .181; BABIP .374 → .345. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Sean Berry'90-'00 * career totals — 10 seasons, 2,691 PA	4.1	2,691	81	47	261*	322*	441*	+4	-4	10.4	11.9
/162	664	20	12	+0.9	-0.9	2.6	pk7: 13
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 9 projected seasons	3.5	2,301	77	8	256	335	423	+8	-17	11.0	11.3
/162	664	22	2	+2.4	-5.0	3.2	pk7: 12
#2Tim Teufel'83-'93 * career totals — 11 seasons, 3,562 PA	5.4	3,562	86	23	251*	336*	428*	+6	-33	11.1	10.9
/162	664	16	4	+1.1	-6.1	2.1	pk7: 11
#3Brian Andersonlast yr '23 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,522 PA	3.8	2,522	66	14	252	336	404	-1	-0	10.0	10.0
/162	664	17	4	-0.1	-0.0	2.6	pk7: 10
#4Lonnie Chisenhalllast yr '18 career totals — 8 seasons, 2,360 PA	3.6	2,360	64	20	268	320	427	-3	-9	8.0	7.9
/162	664	18	6	-0.8	-2.6	2.3	pk7: 8
#5Tommy La Stellalast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,933 PA	2.9	1,933	40	5	267	337	399	+7	-9	7.2	7.2
/162	664	14	2	+2.4	-2.9	2.5	pk7: 7
#6Chris Brown'84-'89 * career totals — 6 seasons, 1,690 PA	2.5	1,690	38	21	267*	331*	418*	+6	-16	5.4	5.4
/162	664	15	8	+2.4	-6.4	2.1	pk7: 5

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
J.D. Davis (OGILVIE)	34	40	50	35	55	229/293/387	158	299	6	3	29%	7%	92	+0.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Nick Hundley 2018 · MLB	34	50→45	51→55	42→40	42	251/291/417	166	302	17	4	23%	5%	97	+1.1	232/279/394	162	302	19	5	29%	6%	87	+0.4	219/266/377	158	287	19	3	30%	6%	80	-0.1
✕Edgard Clemente 2010 · AAA	34	46	50	39→40	49	236/302/386	150	279	18	6	22%	8%	95	+0.9	246/305/399	153	301	17	8	23%	7%	99	+1.2	225/287/381	156	284	20	9	28%	6%	84	+0.0
✕Miguel Olivo 2013 · MLB	35	43→50	53→60	40→50	37	231/260/394	163	280	22	8	27%	4%	80	-0.1	234/272/390	156	303	19	8	29%	4%	84	+0.1	216/254/339	124	304	13	8	32%	4%	62	-0.7
✕John Buck 2014 · MLB	34	42→52	51→60	43→30	48	221/293/376	155	261	21	3	24%	8%	89	+0.5	232/296/358	126	288	15	5	24%	7%	85	+0.2	229/290/300	70	298	6	0	24%	7%	68	-0.4
✕Izzy Alcantara 2007 · AAA	34	46	50→55	40→45	52	238/316/391	153	273	19	8	21%	9%	101	+1.4	229/295/386	157	278	19	8	24%	8%	92	+0.7	206/271/371	165	245	20	2	25%	7%	76	-0.2
✕Chris Coste 2007 · MLB	34	49→48	47→50	40→30	43	245/290/381	136	276	16	4	18%	5%	88	+0.5	245/295/376	131	279	15	3	18%	5%	89	+0.5	243/297/365	122	280	13	0	18%	5%	88	+0.2
✕Adam Rosales 2018 · MLB	35	44→50	51→55	45	40	225/281/387	162	304	19	7	32%	6%	86	+0.3	198/248/332	134	258	16	5	29%	5%	61	-1.5	175/223/296	120	224	15	3	29%	5%	42	-1.8
✕Adam Hyzdu 2006 · MLB	34	43→41	48→50	39→45	51	220/300/360	140	282	16	6	27%	10%	88	+0.4	215/288/358	143	271	16	8	26%	9%	82	+0.0	198/274/338	141	242	16	7	25%	9%	73	-0.6
✕Edgar Gonzalez 2011 · MLB	33	48→56	48→45	38→50	48	242/306/381	139	289	15	6	22%	8%	95	+0.9	244/292/353	109	288	11	13	19%	6%	82	-0.0	245/288/341	96	292	10	15	19%	5%	74	-0.3
✕Russ Johnson 2007 · MLB	34	46→45	47→50	40→45	53	230/297/367	138	252	15	6	16%	8%	88	+0.5	223/285/347	124	242	13	8	14%	8%	78	-0.3	212/270/320	109	223	11	6	11%	7%	65	-0.9
✕Valentino Pascucci 2013 · AAA	34	39→42	51→55	39→45	46	201/283/356	154	288	19	2	36%	10%	81	-0.1	211/298/364	153	309	20	5	35%	10%	88	+0.5	184/291/334	150	259	23	0	36%	11%	78	-0.1
✕Curt Casali 2023 · MLB	34	44	49→50	48→30	52	219/317/366	147	293	17	4	29%	11%	96	+1.0	223/315/328	105	288	10	4	24%	10%	86	+0.3	214/312/278	65	277	4	0	22%	10%	74	-0.2
✕Sal Fasano 2007 · MLB	35	44	54→55	41→40	39	233/287/409	177	288	23	4	28%	5%	95	+1.0	210/269/343	133	276	15	5	29%	4%	72	-0.7	183/238/286	103	251	12	3	31%	3%	47	-0.8
✕Jantzen Witte 2024 · AAA	34	42→52	47→45	44→45	42	217/269/353	136	280	15	8	28%	6%	74	-0.5	214/273/354	140	279	16	8	28%	7%	76	-0.4	187/251/323	136	227	18	0	26%	8%	59	-0.5
✕Dustin Garneau 2021 · MLB	33	40→38	49→50	45	46	208/290/361	153	270	17	5	29%	8%	85	+0.2	192/269/357	165	248	20	6	31%	7%	76	-0.4	145/226/306	160	173	21	1	31%	7%	48	-0.8
●Robinson Chirinos 2017 · MLB	33	43→46	56→60	40→50	49	229/308/427	198	263	24	3	23%	8%	107	+1.8	236/339/446	210	295	26	4	28%	10%	122	+3.0	229/342/435	206	294	26	2	29%	11%	120	+1.8
✕Brooks Conrad 2014 · MLB	34	43	57→55	41→50	43	228/292/425	197	305	26	6	33%	8%	100	+1.3	194/252/339	145	256	18	4	31%	6%	65	-1.2	168/226/298	130	218	16	1	31%	6%	45	-1.5
●Greg Norton 2006 · MLB	34	44	51→60	40	49	231/294/389	159	266	20	4	22%	8%	92	+0.7	257/336/424	167	304	20	4	21%	10%	116	+2.5	266/356/431	165	314	20	2	21%	12%	125	+1.5
✕Scott Seabol 2007 · MLB	32	44→42	53→55	38→40	45	229/284/401	173	270	20	3	24%	7%	91	+0.7	234/288/421	187	269	23	7	22%	7%	97	+1.1	228/281/424	196	253	25	5	21%	6%	95	+0.9
✕Said Gutierrez 2013 · AAA	33	45	48→50	43→40	45	231/284/367	136	269	16	6	22%	6%	83	+0.1	222/268/332	110	254	12	6	18%	5%	68	-1.0	217/252/285	67	260	9	0	20%	3%	50	-0.8

J.D. Davis

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps