J.D. Davis — OGILVIE

J.D. Davis3B Salt Lake Bees

Age 33 R/R 6'1" / 218 lbs AAA HR -4% Svc 9.000 · Ctrl thru 2026

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 308 proj PA

wRC+†vL 7978vR 76

AVG/OBP/SLG.230 / .304 / .395

PA308

HR11

K%30

BB%8

ISO167

MLB%10%

Value2026 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · Splits · ContractCON 40 / POW 50

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2023-2025

CONTACT40

Whiff%

1016.5%

xwOBA

530.312

POWER50

Barrel%

579.3

Avg EV

5689.5

Bat Spd

5772.1

EYE55

Chase%

5730.4%

SPEED35

Sprint

1225.6

Platoon Splits2024 · 157 PA

vs LHP

vs RHP

Edge

102

—

wRC+

◀L

wOBA

288

284

—

ISO

143

108

◀◀L

BABIP

258

279

▶R

29.1%

22.6%

▶▶R

BB%

10.9%

5.9%

◀◀L

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status FA

MLB Debut 2017

Service 9.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2026

First FA Year 2027

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext / FA-deal	$2M	+0.0	$0.1M	-$2M
Totals		$2M		$0.1M	-$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2014	21	A	Quad Cities River Bandits	—	171	159	37	7	0	5	9	55	2	4	0	233	282	371	653	138	320	32	5	283	75	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	21	A	Quad Cities River Bandits	—	171	155	47	9	0	8	13	41	2	4	0	303	365	516	881	213	364	24	8	385	153	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	22	A+	2 teams	—	625	571	118	21	2	23	41	281	10	5	2	207	272	371	643	165	352	45	7	278	71	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	22	A+	2 teams	—	625	553	159	34	3	28	59	177	10	5	2	288	367	512	878	224	373	28	9	385	152	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	23	AA	Corpus Christi Hooks	—	539	494	115	28	1	15	36	166	5	1	3	233	292	385	676	152	315	31	7	292	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	23	AA	Corpus Christi Hooks	—	539	485	130	34	1	23	45	143	5	1	3	268	336	485	821	216	331	27	8	359	133	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	24	AA	3 teams	—	529	490	115	25	0	25	28	165	4	6	3	235	282	439	720	204	293	31	5	309	94	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	24	AA	3 teams	—	529	474	130	27	0	30	44	128	4	6	3	274	341	521	862	247	310	24	8	372	143	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	25	AAA	2 teams	—	490	448	120	23	1	15	34	121	3	3	0	268	324	424	748	156	331	25	7	327	108	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	25	AAA	2 teams	—	490	436	132	27	2	18	46	98	3	3	0	303	373	498	871	195	351	20	9	381	150	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	26	MLB	New York Mets	—	453	410	126	22	1	22	38	97	3	3	0	307	370	527	897	220	355	21	8	386	153	+27	+1	-8	-5	+13	2.9
2019	26	MLB	New York Mets	—	453	410	126	22	1	22	38	97	3	3	0	307	370	527	897	220	355	21	8	392	158	+30	+1	-8	-5	+13	3.1
2020	27	MLB	New York Mets	—	229	190	47	9	0	6	31	56	7	0	0	247	373	389	762	142	318	24	14	342	120	+5	+0	-4	+1	+6	0.9
2020	27	MLB	New York Mets	—	229	190	47	9	0	6	31	56	7	0	0	247	373	389	762	142	318	24	14	348	125	+6	+0	-4	+1	+6	1.0
2021	28	MLB	2 teams	—	260	220	61	16	0	8	31	86	7	1	0	277	384	459	843	182	414	33	12	368	140	+12	+0	-1	+1	+7	2.0
2021	28	MLB	2 teams	—	260	217	63	16	0	9	34	82	7	1	0	290	403	488	892	198	422	32	13	394	160	+18	+0	-1	+1	+7	2.6
2022	29	MLB	San Francisco Giants	—	365	318	83	17	1	13	39	122	6	1	1	261	353	443	796	182	378	33	11	347	124	+10	-0	-3	+1	+10	1.9
2022	29	MLB	San Francisco Giants	—	365	318	79	16	1	12	39	122	6	1	1	248	342	418	760	170	360	33	11	340	118	+7	-0	-3	+1	+10	1.7
2023	30	MLB	San Francisco Giants	—	546	482	124	24	1	20	52	152	6	1	0	257	337	436	773	178	329	28	10	337	116	+10	+0	+5	+2	+15	3.3
2023	30	MLB	San Francisco Giants	—	546	480	119	23	1	18	52	152	6	1	0	248	328	412	740	165	320	28	10	328	109	+6	+0	+5	+2	+15	2.8
2024	31	MLB	2 teams	—	293	269	49	7	0	6	20	101	4	0	0	182	249	275	524	93	265	34	7	240	42	-19	+0	-5	-5	+8	-2.1
2024	31	MLB	2 teams	—	293	266	50	8	0	7	23	98	4	0	0	188	263	297	560	109	267	33	8	258	55	-15	+0	-5	-5	+8	-1.7
2025	32	AAA	Salt Lake Bees	—	213	192	42	8	1	7	16	76	3	6	1	219	289	380	669	161	315	36	8	293	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	32	AAA	Salt Lake Bees	—	213	187	55	11	1	10	21	56	3	6	1	294	374	524	898	230	366	26	10	391	157	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season
2026	33	MLB	LAA	—	308	275	64	12	1	11	26	93	4	3	1	233	308	404	712	171	305	30	8	313	98	-1	+0	-1	+1	+9	0.7
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	34	MLB	LAA	100%	265	238	54	10	1	9	22	82	3	2	1	227	300	391	691	164	297	31	8	303	90	-3	+0	-5	+1	+8	0.0
2027	34	MLB	LAA	100%	265	238	53	9	1	9	22	82	3	2	1	223	297	382	679	160	296	31	8	292	82	-5	+0	-5	+1	+8	-0.2
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	2407	2122	538	102	4	81	232	665	35	9	3	254	337	420	757	166	329	28	10	336	115	+41	+1	-22	-1	+68	8.9
/ 162G	—			—	650	573	146	28	1	22	63	180	9	2	1	255	337	422	760	168	331	28	10	336	115	+11	+0	-6	-0	+18	2.4
Career	—			—	5286	4756	1155	229	10	185	423	1653	67	36	12	243	314	412	725	169	328	31	8	316	100	+2	+2	-23	+2	+150	13.5
/ 162G	—			—	650	585	142	28	1	23	52	203	8	4	1	243	313	412	725	169	327	31	8	316	100	+0	+0	-3	+0	+18	1.7

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2014	21	A	Quad Cities River Bandits	—	171	155	47	9	0	8	13	41	2	4	0	303	365	516	881	213	364	24	8	385	153	+10	+1	—	—	+5	1.6
2015	22	A+	Lancaster JetHawks	—	552	485	140	28	3	26	54	157	10	5	2	289	372	520	891	231	374	28	10	390	156	+35	+0	—	—	+16	5.2
2015	22	INTL	Glendale Desert Dogs	—	73	68	19	6	0	2	5	20	0	0	0	279	329	456	785	176	370	27	7	347	123	+2	+0	—	—	+2	0.4
2016	23	AA	Corpus Christi Hooks	—	539	485	130	34	1	23	45	143	5	1	3	268	336	485	821	216	331	27	8	359	133	+20	-1	—	—	+15	3.5
2017	24	MLB	Houston Astros	—	68	62	14	4	0	4	4	20	1	1	1	226	284	484	767	258	256	29	6	330	110	+1	-0	-0	+2	+2	0.4
2017	24	AAA	Fresno Grizzlies	—	73	61	18	5	0	5	9	18	0	0	0	295	386	623	1.009	328	317	25	12	416	176	+6	+0	—	—	+2	0.9
2017	24	AA	Corpus Christi Hooks	—	388	351	98	18	0	21	31	90	3	5	2	279	343	510	853	231	317	23	8	371	142	+19	+0	—	—	+11	3.0
2018	25	MLB	Houston Astros	—	113	103	18	2	0	1	10	29	0	0	0	175	248	223	471	49	233	26	9	223	29	-9	+0	-1	+2	+3	-0.5
2018	25	AAA	Fresno Grizzlies	—	377	333	114	25	2	17	36	69	3	3	0	342	411	583	994	240	385	18	10	428	186	+37	+1	—	—	+11	4.9
2019	26	MLB	New York Mets	—	453	410	126	22	1	22	38	97	3	3	0	307	370	527	897	220	355	21	8	392	158	+30	+1	-8	-5	+13	3.1
2020	27	MLB	New York Mets	—	229	190	47	9	0	6	31	56	7	0	0	247	373	389	762	142	318	24	14	348	125	+6	+0	-4	+1	+6	1.0
2021	28	MLB	New York Mets	—	211	179	51	12	0	5	24	68	6	1	0	285	388	436	823	151	426	32	11	368	140	+10	+0	-1	+1	+6	1.6
2021	28	AAA	Syracuse Mets	—	49	38	12	4	0	4	10	14	1	0	0	316	469	737	1.206	421	400	29	20	506	245	+8	+0	—	—	+1	1.0
2022	29	MLB	San Francisco Giants	—	365	318	79	16	1	12	39	122	6	1	1	248	342	418	760	170	360	33	11	340	118	+7	-0	-3	+1	+10	1.7
2023	30	MLB	San Francisco Giants	—	546	480	119	23	1	18	52	152	6	1	0	248	328	412	740	165	320	28	10	328	109	+6	+0	+5	+2	+15	2.8
2024	31	MLB	New York Yankees	—	157	142	31	5	0	4	12	39	3	0	0	218	293	338	631	120	273	25	8	288	79	-4	+0	-5	-5	+4	-1.0
2024	31	AAA	Norfolk Tides	—	136	124	19	3	0	3	11	59	1	0	0	153	228	250	478	97	258	43	8	223	29	-11	+0	—	—	+4	-0.7
2025	32	AAA	Salt Lake Bees	—	213	187	55	11	1	10	21	56	3	6	1	294	374	524	898	230	366	26	10	391	157	+14	+1	—	—	+6	2.1
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	2142	1884	485	93	3	72	210	583	32	7	2	257	342	425	766	167	332	27	10	341	119	+47	+1	-17	-1	+61	9.2

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Jake Lamblast yr '23 career totals — 10 seasons, 2,650 PA	10	2,650	96	18	235	326	427	+7	+3	12.0	12.1
#1Jake Lamblast yr '23 career totals — 10 seasons, 2,650 PA	/162	664	24	5	235	326	427	+1.7	+0.8	3.0	pk7: 12
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 9 projected seasons	9	2,438	82	9	255	334	422	+9	-17	11.5	11.6
	/162	664	22	3	255	334	422	+2.4	-4.7	3.1	pk7: 12
#2Aledmys Díazlast yr '23 career totals — 8 seasons, 2,509 PA	8	2,509	78	15	261	314	429	+10	+7	10.8	10.8
	/162	664	21	4	261	314	429	+2.7	+1.8	2.9	pk7: 11
#3Danny Valencialast yr '18 career totals — 9 seasons, 3,222 PA	9	3,222	96	11	268	317	426	+1	-16	9.7	10.2
	/162	664	20	2	268	317	426	+0.2	-3.2	2.0	pk7: 11
#4Brian Andersonlast yr '23 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,522 PA	7	2,522	66	14	252	336	404	-1	-0	10.0	10.0
	/162	664	17	4	252	336	404	-0.1	-0.0	2.6	pk7: 10
#5Damion Easleylast yr '08 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,995 PA	9	2,995	77	33	247	323	396	-2	-15	7.8	8.3
	/162	664	17	7	247	323	396	-0.5	-3.3	1.7	pk7: 9
#6Lonnie Chisenhalllast yr '18 career totals — 8 seasons, 2,360 PA	8	2,360	64	20	268	320	427	-3	-9	8.0	7.9
	/162	664	18	6	268	320	427	-0.8	-2.6	2.3	pk7: 8

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
J.D. Davis (OGILVIE)	33	40	50	35	55	230/304/395	165	305	11	3	30%	8%	98	+0.8	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕John Buck 2013 · MLB	33	44→53	52→60	42→30	52	231/314/395	165	275	20	2	24%	10%	102	+1.8	229/300/364	135	282	17	4	24%	8%	87	+0.8	227/292/346	118	280	16	2	24%	7%	74	-0.0
●Robinson Chirinos 2017 · MLB	33	43→46	57→60	40→50	49	231/311/434	202	266	24	3	23%	8%	111	+2.5	237/340/449	212	297	26	4	28%	10%	127	+3.6	230/343/435	205	296	26	2	29%	11%	122	+2.1
✕Tim Beckham 2021 · MLB	31	46→55	55	39→50	43	239/296/427	189	300	23	5	28%	7%	102	+1.9	256/306/420	164	331	21	7	28%	6%	105	+2.1	269/313/415	146	351	21	4	28%	5%	101	+0.5
✕Nick Hundley 2018 · MLB	34	48→46	50→55	42→40	44	245/289/405	160	295	17	4	23%	6%	92	+1.2	235/285/400	165	307	19	5	29%	6%	90	+1.0	225/276/387	162	297	19	3	30%	6%	79	+0.1
✕Michael McKenry 2017 · MLB	32	43→47	47→55	44→40	53	212/308/356	143	280	14	7	28%	11%	89	+0.9	202/288/319	117	283	11	6	30%	10%	71	-0.3	165/262/251	86	237	7	0	31%	11%	42	-1.0
✕Anthony Recker 2015 · MLB	31	40→48	53→55	42→45	42	214/275/381	167	283	21	5	32%	7%	82	+0.5	207/282/351	144	281	17	5	31%	8%	76	+0.1	198/269/334	136	266	15	2	30%	7%	63	-0.4
✕Scott Seabol 2007 · MLB	32	44→45	53→60	38→40	45	233/288/410	177	276	21	3	24%	7%	94	+1.3	241/294/434	193	277	24	7	22%	7%	103	+1.9	239/293/445	205	266	26	5	21%	7%	105	+2.0
✕James McCann 2022 · MLB	32	49→56	50	41→45	45	248/310/398	150	319	19	5	28%	8%	100	+1.7	222/279/353	131	284	15	7	27%	6%	76	+0.0	229/275/374	146	285	18	3	26%	5%	78	+0.1
✕Valentino Pascucci 2012 · AAA	33	43→45	51→55	42→45	46	220/294/382	162	299	19	3	32%	9%	89	+1.0	216/303/390	174	313	23	3	36%	10%	95	+1.4	197/298/375	178	282	26	0	37%	12%	88	+0.6
✕Shelley Duncan 2013 · MLB	33	42→45	54→60	40→45	51	222/300/400	178	255	22	4	23%	9%	97	+1.5	191/257/319	128	235	15	4	25%	8%	58	-1.2	154/212/252	99	192	11	0	26%	6%	20	-2.8
✕Mario Lisson 2017 · AAA	33	46→49	48→55	43→55	44	231/300/370	139	306	17	8	29%	8%	89	+1.0	214/278/355	141	282	16	9	29%	7%	76	+0.0	171/232/313	142	206	18	6	27%	7%	43	-0.8
✕John Hicks 2021 · MLB	31	46→50	54→60	43→50	39	240/282/413	174	309	22	5	30%	6%	92	+1.2	234/275/426	192	308	25	13	32%	5%	93	+1.3	218/259/399	181	289	23	16	33%	5%	76	+0.0
✕Miguel Olivo 2012 · MLB	34	44→51	53→60	45→50	39	233/273/405	171	288	22	8	28%	5%	86	+0.8	239/272/408	169	299	22	6	27%	4%	87	+0.8	243/276/391	148	320	17	9	29%	4%	81	+0.2
✕Mark Reynolds 2017 · MLB	33	46→55	51→65	40→50	50	235/315/392	157	296	19	4	27%	10%	101	+1.8	230/315/396	166	300	22	4	29%	11%	102	+1.9	216/309/384	168	280	23	2	30%	11%	94	+0.8
✕Jarrod Saltalamacchia 2017 · MLB	32	40→50	54→60	44→40	51	209/304/387	178	286	23	2	34%	12%	95	+1.4	178/259/303	125	286	15	4	40%	10%	55	-1.4	125/204/203	79	216	9	1	44%	9%	3	-1.7
✕Edgar Gonzalez 2011 · MLB	33	49→59	48→45	38→50	48	243/308/383	140	290	15	6	22%	8%	95	+1.4	258/306/368	110	306	11	13	18%	6%	89	+1.0	265/308/361	96	317	10	15	19%	5%	85	+0.4
✕John Mayberry Jr. 2015 · MLB	31	44→48	51→55	44→50	49	226/296/394	168	267	19	5	23%	8%	93	+1.3	214/280/366	152	263	16	7	25%	8%	79	+0.3	160/214/281	121	200	11	4	26%	6%	28	-0.9
✕Trevor Plouffe 2018 · MLB	32	45→52	50→60	42→45	48	231/293/383	153	270	19	3	22%	8%	89	+1.0	219/305/389	170	285	21	7	29%	11%	96	+1.5	184/294/375	191	237	24	5	32%	13%	89	+0.5
✕Russ Johnson 2006 · MLB	33	48→47	47→50	42→45	50	241/303/386	145	280	14	9	19%	8%	94	+1.3	235/301/370	135	256	14	6	14%	8%	89	+0.9	231/301/360	129	245	14	4	13%	9%	84	+0.4
✕Adam Rosales 2018 · MLB	35	45→49	52→55	44→45	41	228/286/396	167	309	20	7	32%	7%	90	+1.0	208/259/343	135	274	16	5	29%	6%	64	-0.8	189/239/313	123	245	15	3	29%	5%	46	-1.2