Ryan Jeffers

C Minnesota Twins

Age 30 R/R 6'2" / 235 lbs MLB Svc 6.517 · Ctrl thru 2027

Overview

MLB40-MANExt / FA-dealFA 2028

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR
2024	27	MLBMIN	465	.226/.303/.432	21	3	104	2.3
2025	28	MLBMIN	464	.266/.356/.397	9	1	116	3.0
2026	29	MLBMIN	369	.256/.354/.461	14	1	127	2.6
2027PROJ	30	MLBMIN	329	.246/.336/.421	11	2	114	1.5
2028PROJ	31	MLBMIN	295	.241/.331/.410	9	1	109	0.9
2029PROJ	32	MLBMIN	258	.234/.324/.395	8	1	103	0.5

Last 3 seasons WAR 7.9 · Next 3 projected WAR 2.9Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2027Service6.517First FA2028

2027Ext / FA-deal$12M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2024-2026

Bat Spd64

xwOBA63

Barrel%50

Avg EV38

Speed26

Form.241/.325/.439 · rolling true talent (60d window) · proj .245/.334/.420

CompsMichael McKenry (age 30) · John Buck (age 30) · George Kottaras (age 30)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†vL 119114vR 99

AVG/OBP/SLG.246 / .336 / .421

PA329

HR11

K%19

BB%10

BABIP276

ISO181

MLB%100%

Value2027 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · Recent Form · Splits · ContractCON 50 / POW 45

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2024-2026

CONTACT50

xAVG

330.237

POWER45

Barrel%

508.1

Avg EV

3888.2

Bat Spd

6472.8

EYE50

scouting grade only

SPEED40

Sprint

2626.3

Recent Formrolling true talent ⓘ

K%21%▼22% over 82 PA (60d) · proj 19%

BB%10%▼9% over 82 PA (60d) · proj 10%

ISO.197▲.247 over 73 AB (60d) · proj .175

HR/BB5.5%▲7.1% over 56 BBE (60d) · proj 4.6%

BABIP.272·.212 over 52 BIP (60d) · proj .276

SLASH.241/.325/.439·proj .245/.334/.420

Platoon Splits2024-2026 · 1008 PA

vs LHP

vs RHP

Edge

328

680

—

wRC+

142

◀◀L

wOBA

377

311

◀◀L

ISO

187

162

◀L

BABIP

315

269

◀L

18.6%

20.4%

◀L

BB%

12.5%

7.8%

◀◀L

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status FA

MLB Debut 2020

Service 6.517 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2027

First FA Year 2028

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Ext / FA-deal	$12M	+1.6	$13M	+$1M
Totals		$12M		$13M	+$1M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run 1-3 WAR low.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2018	21	A	Cedar Rapids Kernels	—	155	139	40	10	0	4	14	30	2	0	0	288	361	446	807	158	343	19	9	361	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	21	ROK	Elizabethton Twins	—	129	102	43	7	0	3	20	16	7	0	1	422	543	578	1.121	157	482	12	16	498	135	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	22	AA	Pensacola Blue Wahoos	—	99	87	25	5	0	4	9	19	3	0	0	287	374	483	856	195	328	19	9	381	97	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	22	A+	Fort Myers Miracle	—	315	281	72	11	0	10	28	64	4	0	0	256	332	402	734	146	297	20	9	329	54	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	23	MLB	Minnesota Twins	—	62	55	15	0	0	3	5	19	2	0	0	273	355	436	791	164	364	31	8	356	127	+2	+0	+1	+1	+1	0.5
2021	24	MLB	Minnesota Twins	—	293	267	53	10	1	14	22	108	4	0	1	199	270	401	670	202	269	37	8	298	87	-4	-0	+10	+7	+6	1.8
2021	24	AAA	St. Paul Saints	—	103	83	18	4	0	5	16	26	1	0	0	217	350	446	796	229	236	25	16	345	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	25	MLB	Minnesota Twins	—	236	212	44	10	1	7	23	62	0	0	0	208	285	363	648	156	259	26	10	291	83	-5	+0	+4	+5	+5	1.0
2022	25	AAA	St. Paul Saints	—	39	35	8	1	0	3	4	4	0	1	0	229	308	514	822	286	179	10	10	357	83	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	26	MLB	Minnesota Twins	—	335	286	79	15	2	14	33	93	10	3	2	276	371	490	860	213	359	28	10	374	138	+15	-0	-0	+6	+7	2.9
2024	27	MLB	Minnesota Twins	—	465	412	93	22	0	21	32	94	14	3	0	226	303	432	736	206	238	20	7	322	104	+2	+1	+1	+8	+10	2.3
2025	28	MLB	Minnesota Twins	—	464	406	108	26	0	9	50	91	7	1	1	266	356	397	753	131	322	20	11	341	116	+9	-0	+2	+8	+10	3.0
2026	29	MLB	Minnesota Twins	—	369	317	81	19	2	14	46	66	3	1	0	256	354	461	815	205	280	18	12	360	127	+12	+0	-1	+7	+8	2.6
2026	29	AAA	St. Paul Saints	—	19	16	6	1	0	2	2	2	1	0	0	375	474	812	1.286	438	333	11	11	542	168	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	2224	1955	473	102	6	82	211	533	40	8	4	242	328	426	754	184	289	24	9	335	113	+33	+0	+17	+43	+48	14.4
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2018	21	A MLE	Cedar Rapids Kernels	—	155	144	32	7	0	3	9	42	2	0	0	222	277	333	611	111	298	27	6	269	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	21	ROK MLE	Elizabethton Twins	—	129	109	34	5	0	2	13	23	7	0	1	312	419	413	831	101	374	18	10	368	135	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	22	AA MLE	Pensacola Blue Wahoos	—	99	90	22	4	0	3	6	23	3	0	0	244	313	389	702	144	292	23	6	311	97	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	22	A+ MLE	Fort Myers Miracle	—	315	288	57	10	0	6	21	97	4	0	0	198	262	295	557	97	270	31	7	248	54	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	23	MLB MLE	Minnesota Twins	—	62	55	15	0	0	3	5	19	2	0	0	273	355	436	791	164	364	31	8	355	127	+2	+0	+1	+1	+1	0.5
2021	24	MLB MLE	Minnesota Twins	—	293	267	53	10	1	14	22	108	4	0	1	199	270	401	670	202	269	37	8	297	87	-4	-0	+10	+7	+6	1.8
2021	24	AAA MLE	St. Paul Saints	—	103	88	14	3	0	3	11	32	1	0	0	159	260	295	555	136	205	31	11	271	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	25	MLB MLE	Minnesota Twins	—	236	212	44	10	1	7	23	62	0	0	0	208	285	363	648	156	259	26	10	290	83	-5	+0	+4	+5	+5	1.0
2022	25	AAA MLE	St. Paul Saints	—	39	36	7	1	0	2	3	5	0	1	0	194	256	389	645	194	162	13	8	291	83	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	26	MLB MLE	Minnesota Twins	—	335	287	79	15	2	14	32	93	10	3	2	275	368	488	856	213	359	28	10	372	138	+15	-0	-0	+6	+7	2.9
2024	27	MLB MLE	Minnesota Twins	—	465	412	93	22	0	21	32	94	14	3	0	226	303	432	736	206	238	20	7	322	104	+2	+1	+1	+8	+10	2.3
2025	28	MLB MLE	Minnesota Twins	—	464	407	108	26	0	9	49	91	7	1	1	265	354	396	750	130	322	20	11	339	116	+9	-0	+2	+8	+10	3.0
2026	29	MLB MLE	Minnesota Twins	—	369	320	81	19	2	14	44	66	3	1	0	253	349	456	805	203	280	18	12	355	127	+12	+0	-1	+7	+8	2.6
2026	29	AAA MLE	St. Paul Saints	—	19	17	5	1	0	1	1	2	1	0	0	294	368	529	898	235	282	11	5	417	168	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	21	A MLE	2 teams	—	284	253	66	12	0	5	22	64	9	0	1	261	342	368	709	107	332	23	8	314	99	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	21	A RAW	2 teams	—	284	241	83	17	0	7	34	46	9	0	1	344	444	502	946	158	404	16	12	423	99	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	22	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	414	378	79	14	0	9	27	119	7	0	0	209	274	317	592	108	278	29	7	263	64	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	22	A+ RAW	2 teams	—	414	368	97	16	0	14	37	83	7	0	0	264	342	421	763	158	304	20	9	341	64	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	23	MLB MLE	Minnesota Twins	—	62	55	15	0	0	3	5	19	2	0	0	273	355	436	791	164	364	31	8	355	127	+2	+0	+1	+1	+1	0.5
2020	23	MLB RAW	Minnesota Twins	—	62	55	15	0	0	3	5	19	2	0	0	273	355	436	791	164	364	31	8	356	127	+2	+0	+1	+1	+1	0.5
2021	24	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	396	355	67	13	1	17	33	140	5	0	1	189	267	375	642	186	249	35	8	290	83	-8	-0	+10	+7	+9	1.7
2021	24	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	396	350	71	14	1	19	38	134	5	0	1	203	290	411	702	209	260	34	10	310	83	-8	-0	+10	+7	+9	1.7
2022	25	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	275	248	51	11	1	9	26	67	0	1	0	206	281	367	648	161	244	24	9	290	83	-6	+0	+4	+5	+6	1.0
2022	25	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	275	247	52	11	1	10	27	66	0	1	0	211	288	385	673	174	246	24	10	300	83	-6	+0	+4	+5	+6	1.0
2023	26	MLB MLE	Minnesota Twins	—	335	287	79	15	2	14	32	93	10	3	2	275	368	488	856	213	357	28	10	372	138	+15	-0	-0	+6	+7	2.9
2023	26	MLB RAW	Minnesota Twins	—	335	286	79	15	2	14	33	93	10	3	2	276	371	490	860	213	359	28	10	374	138	+15	-0	-0	+6	+7	2.9
2024	27	MLB MLE	Minnesota Twins	—	465	412	93	22	0	21	32	94	14	3	0	226	303	432	736	206	238	20	7	322	104	+2	+1	+1	+8	+10	2.3
2024	27	MLB RAW	Minnesota Twins	—	465	412	93	22	0	21	32	94	14	3	0	226	303	432	736	206	238	20	7	322	104	+2	+1	+1	+8	+10	2.3
2025	28	MLB MLE	Minnesota Twins	—	464	407	108	26	0	9	49	91	7	1	1	265	354	396	750	130	321	20	11	339	116	+9	-0	+2	+8	+10	3.0
2025	28	MLB RAW	Minnesota Twins	—	464	406	108	26	0	9	50	91	7	1	1	266	356	397	753	131	322	20	11	341	116	+9	-0	+2	+8	+10	3.0
2026	29	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	388	337	86	20	2	15	45	68	4	1	0	255	350	460	810	205	277	18	12	358	129	+13	+0	-1	+7	+8	2.8
2026	29	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	388	333	87	20	2	16	48	68	4	1	0	261	360	477	838	216	283	18	12	368	129	+13	+0	-1	+7	+8	2.8
2018	21	A MLE	2 teams	—	284	251	66	12	0	5	22	64	9	0	1	263	342	371	712	108	333	23	8	314	99	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	22	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	414	377	79	14	0	9	27	119	7	0	0	210	274	318	593	109	275	29	7	263	64	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	23	MLB MLE	Minnesota Twins	—	62	55	15	0	0	3	5	19	2	0	0	273	355	436	791	164	364	31	8	355	127	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	24	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	396	355	67	13	1	17	33	140	5	0	1	189	267	375	642	186	252	35	8	290	83	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	25	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	275	247	51	11	1	9	26	67	0	1	0	206	281	368	649	162	245	24	9	290	83	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	26	MLB MLE	Minnesota Twins	—	335	290	79	15	2	14	32	93	10	3	2	272	368	483	851	210	359	28	10	372	138	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	27	MLB MLE	Minnesota Twins	—	465	416	93	22	0	21	32	94	14	3	0	224	303	428	731	204	238	20	7	322	104	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	28	MLB MLE	Minnesota Twins	—	464	405	108	26	0	9	49	91	7	1	1	267	354	398	752	131	322	20	11	339	116	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	29	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	388	336	86	20	2	15	45	68	4	1	0	256	350	461	811	205	280	18	12	358	129	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	27	MLB MLE	Minnesota Twins	—	465	416	93	22	0	21	32	94	14	3	0	224	303	428	731	204	238	20	7	322	104	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	28	MLB MLE	Minnesota Twins	—	464	405	108	26	0	9	49	91	7	1	1	267	354	398	752	131	322	20	11	339	116	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	29	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	388	336	86	20	2	15	45	68	4	1	0	256	350	461	811	205	280	18	12	358	129	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	30	MLB MLE	MIN	100%	426	373	91	21	1	14	44	81	6	2	1	245	336	420	756	175	276	19	10	336	114	+7	+0	-5	+8	+9	1.6
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	30	MLB CTX	MIN	100%	329	287	71	17	1	11	34	62	5	2	1	246	336	421	757	175	276	19	10	337	114	+5	+0	-4	+6	+7	1.5
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	31	MLB MLE	MIN	100%	295	258	63	15	1	9	31	57	4	1	0	240	331	409	740	168	272	19	11	330	109	+3	+0	-6	+5	+6	0.9
2029	32	MLB MLE	MIN	100%	258	226	53	12	1	8	26	51	4	1	0	234	324	394	718	160	267	20	10	321	103	+1	+0	-7	+5	+6	0.5
2030	33	MLB MLE	MIN	100%	218	191	43	10	0	6	22	44	3	1	0	226	315	376	690	150	260	20	10	310	96	-1	+0	-7	+4	+5	0.1
2028	31	MLB CTX	MIN	100%	295	258	63	15	1	9	31	57	4	1	0	241	331	410	741	169	273	19	11	330	109	+3	+0	-6	+5	+6	0.9
2029	32	MLB CTX	MIN	100%	258	226	53	12	1	8	26	51	4	1	0	234	324	395	719	161	267	20	10	322	103	+1	+0	-7	+5	+6	0.5
2030	33	MLB CTX	MIN	100%	218	191	43	10	0	6	22	44	3	1	0	226	315	376	691	150	261	20	10	311	96	-1	+0	-7	+4	+5	0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	2995	2630	632	139	8	105	290	685	51	11	4	240	327	419	746	179	284	23	10	331	104	+37	+1	-3	+56	+65	15.8
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	571	137	30	2	23	63	149	11	2	1	240	327	420	747	180	284	23	10	331	104	+8	+0	-1	+12	+14	3.4
Career	—	MLE		—	4183	3694	874	187	9	136	384	969	74	14	6	237	321	403	723	166	283	23	9	321	104	+42	+1	-7	+62	+72	17.3
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	574	135	29	1	21	60	151	11	2	1	235	319	399	718	164	281	23	9	321	104	+8	+0	-1	+12	+14	3.4

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAASt. Paul Saints · 19 PAwOBA .526 → .417 (−109)K% 10.5% → 12.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	10.53%	÷1.000	×1.200	—	—	12.63%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	10.53%	÷1.000	×0.690	—	×0.982	7.13%
HBP% /PA	5.26%	—	×0.940	—	×0.982	4.86%
Singles /BIP	21.43%	÷1.000	×0.930	—	×0.982	19.57%
Doubles /BIP	7.14%	÷1.000	×0.830	—	×0.982	5.82%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.970	—	×0.982	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	14.29%	÷1.000	×0.700	—	×0.982	9.82%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 27.2 → −1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .526 → .417; ISO .438 → .316; BABIP .333 → .282. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAASt. Paul Saints · 39 PAwOBA .347 → .291 (−56)K% 10.3% → 12.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	10.26%	÷0.981	×1.200	—	—	12.54%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	10.26%	÷1.012	×0.690	—	×1.033	7.22%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.940	—	×1.033	0.00%
Singles /BIP	12.90%	÷1.000	×0.930	—	×1.033	12.39%
Doubles /BIP	3.23%	÷1.079	×0.830	—	×1.033	2.56%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.150	×0.970	—	×1.033	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	9.68%	÷0.881	×0.700	—	×1.033	7.94%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 76, 1B 100, 2B 116, 3B 130, K 96, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .347 → .291; ISO .286 → .236; BABIP .179 → .162. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAASt. Paul Saints · 103 PAwOBA .347 → .271 (−76)K% 25.2% → 30.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	25.24%	÷0.983	×1.200	—	—	30.82%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	15.53%	÷1.024	×0.690	—	×1.048	10.97%
HBP% /PA	0.97%	—	×0.940	—	×1.048	0.96%
Singles /BIP	15.79%	÷1.035	×0.930	×0.968	×1.048	14.39%
Doubles /BIP	7.02%	÷0.996	×0.830	×0.968	×1.048	5.93%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.900	×0.920	×0.968	×1.048	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	8.77%	÷1.121	×0.700	—	×1.048	5.74%

Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 124, 1B 107, 2B 99, 3B 80, K 97, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 27.2 → +4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.968.

Result: wOBA .347 → .271; ISO .229 → .164; BABIP .236 → .205. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 A+Fort Myers Miracle · 315 PAwOBA .322 → .248 (−74)K% 20.3% → 30.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	20.32%	÷0.939	×1.420	—	—	30.71%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	8.89%	÷1.019	×0.750	—	×1.012	6.62%
HBP% /PA	1.27%	—	×0.930	—	×1.012	1.20%
Singles /BIP	23.50%	÷0.975	×0.920	×0.950	×1.012	21.33%
Doubles /BIP	5.07%	÷0.908	×0.960	×0.950	×1.012	5.15%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.900	×0.810	×0.950	×1.012	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	4.61%	÷1.362	×0.880	—	×1.012	3.01%

Factors used: league row FSL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 172, 1B 95, 2B 82, 3B 80, K 88, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .322 → .248; ISO .146 → .098; BABIP .297 → .270. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AAPensacola Blue Wahoos · 99 PAwOBA .371 → .311 (−60)K% 19.2% → 22.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	19.19%	÷1.027	×1.220	—	—	22.80%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	9.09%	÷1.028	×0.680	—	×1.042	6.27%
HBP% /PA	3.03%	—	×0.840	—	×1.042	2.65%
Singles /BIP	23.53%	÷0.970	×0.920	×0.950	×1.042	22.09%
Doubles /BIP	7.35%	÷1.160	×0.910	×0.950	×1.042	5.71%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.900	×0.880	×0.950	×1.042	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	5.88%	÷1.000	×0.800	—	×1.042	4.90%

Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 100, 1B 94, 2B 132, 3B 80, K 105, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 24.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .371 → .311; ISO .195 → .159; BABIP .328 → .292. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 ACedar Rapids Kernels · 155 PAwOBA .351 → .269 (−82)K% 19.4% → 26.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	19.35%	÷0.980	×1.360	—	—	26.85%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	9.03%	÷1.041	×0.690	—	×1.015	6.08%
HBP% /PA	1.29%	—	×0.780	—	×1.015	1.02%
Singles /BIP	23.85%	÷0.984	×0.920	×0.964	×1.015	21.82%
Doubles /BIP	9.17%	÷1.031	×0.830	×0.964	×1.015	7.22%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.993	×0.910	×0.964	×1.015	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	3.67%	÷1.163	×0.800	—	×1.015	2.56%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 133, 1B 97, 2B 106, 3B 99, K 96, BB 108 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.964.

Result: wOBA .351 → .269; ISO .158 → .110; BABIP .343 → .298. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 ROKElizabethton Twins · 129 PAwOBA .485 → .368 (−118)K% 12.4% → 17.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	12.40%	÷1.000	×1.420	—	—	17.61%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	15.50%	÷1.000	×0.640	—	×0.985	9.77%
HBP% /PA	5.43%	—	×0.740	—	×0.985	3.96%
Singles /BIP	38.37%	÷1.000	×0.840	×0.965	×0.985	30.63%
Doubles /BIP	8.14%	÷1.000	×0.740	×0.965	×0.985	5.72%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.740	×0.965	×0.985	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	3.49%	÷1.000	×0.800	—	×0.985	2.75%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 19.5 → −1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.965.

Result: wOBA .485 → .368; ISO .157 → .121; BABIP .482 → .374. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Alex Avilalast yr '21 career totals — 13 seasons, 3,638 PA	5.5	3,638	105	8	233	348	393	+65	+46	26.7	24.5
/162	664	19	1	+11.9	+8.5	4.9	pk7: 22
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 11 projected seasons	5.0	3,324	115	13	242	325	420	+59	+26	19.2	17.8
/162	664	23	3	+11.9	+5.3	3.8	pk7: 16
#2Mike Macfarlane'87-'99 * career totals — 12 seasons, 4,043 PA	6.1	4,043	129	12	244*	313*	436*	+65	+0	19.1	17.7
/162	664	21	2	+10.6	+0.0	3.1	pk7: 16
#3Duke Sims'64-'74 * career totals — 10 seasons, 2,810 PA	4.2	2,810	100	6	247*	346*	448*	+36	+0	17.5	16.8
/162	664	24	1	+8.4	+0.1	4.1	pk7: 16
#4Omar Narváezlast yr '24 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,298 PA	3.5	2,298	53	0	251	334	374	+41	+15	12.6	12.9
/162	664	15	0	+11.9	+4.3	3.6	pk7: 13
#5Rick Wilkins'91-'01 * career totals — 8 seasons, 2,435 PA	3.7	2,435	81	9	235*	324*	416*	+40	+0	12.4	12.7
/162	664	22	2	+11.0	+0.1	3.4	pk7: 13
#6Kelly Shoppachlast yr '13 career totals — 8 seasons, 1,839 PA	2.8	1,839	70	1	225	314	417	+33	+14	11.3	11.5
/162	664	25	0	+11.9	+5.0	4.1	pk7: 12

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Ryan Jeffers (OGILVIE)	30	50	45	40	50	243/334/416	173	276	11	2	19%	10%	114	+1.3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Michael McKenry 2015 · MLB	30	50→47	52→55	41→40	50	256/324/424	168	301	20	6	22%	8%	111	+2.1	219/310/363	144	287	14	6	27%	11%	93	+0.8	178/284/300	122	248	11	3	30%	12%	68	-0.4
●John Buck 2010 · MLB	30	45→53	53→60	39→30	47	232/299/414	182	279	20	3	25%	8%	100	+1.3	245/305/422	177	295	22	2	24%	7%	104	+1.6	236/304/405	169	281	22	0	24%	8%	101	+1.0
✕George Kottaras 2013 · MLB	30	45→54	55	44→30	59	237/334/429	192	277	23	4	23%	13%	116	+2.5	219/318/400	181	299	24	5	32%	12%	104	+1.6	185/288/349	164	263	25	1	38%	12%	81	-0.0
✕Devin Mesoraco 2017 · MLB	29	46→50	52→60	42→40	51	235/313/401	166	271	19	6	22%	9%	102	+1.5	220/303/375	155	253	19	5	21%	9%	93	+0.8	208/295/367	159	233	21	1	21%	9%	89	+0.2
✕Omar Narváez 2021 · MLB	29	50→54	52→50	42→30	54	256/338/418	162	300	21	3	22%	10%	115	+2.4	240/317/367	127	286	13	2	20%	9%	95	+1.0	234/312/347	112	279	11	0	19%	9%	90	+0.3
●Chris Iannetta 2013 · MLB	30	45→55	51→60	41→45	58	231/334/391	160	274	19	6	22%	12%	108	+1.9	231/343/379	148	295	16	4	25%	14%	108	+1.9	220/340/362	142	282	15	2	25%	14%	105	+1.0
✕Aledmys Díaz 2021 · MLB	30	48→57	55	45	50	252/310/439	187	261	23	6	15%	7%	109	+2.0	242/295/392	150	274	17	3	18%	6%	93	+0.8	236/287/371	135	270	15	1	18%	5%	86	+0.2
✕James McCann 2020 · MLB	30	51→55	50	43→45	43	253/307/407	154	321	18	4	27%	6%	101	+1.4	246/306/395	149	319	18	5	28%	7%	98	+1.2	243/286/397	153	300	21	1	26%	5%	91	+0.3
✕Matthew LeCroy 2007 · MLB	31	50	53→55	46→30	52	255/335/421	166	302	22	3	23%	10%	114	+2.4	204/270/312	108	246	11	5	21%	7%	65	-1.2	157/215/221	63	193	5	0	20%	5%	24	-2.1
✕Welington Castillo 2017 · MLB	30	47→56	53→55	48→30	44	245/303/414	169	298	22	3	25%	7%	101	+1.4	250/301/422	172	311	23	3	27%	6%	103	+1.5	244/292/420	176	300	26	1	28%	6%	99	+0.6
✕Marwin Gonzalez 2019 · MLB	30	51→57	53→55	44→50	49	259/324/436	176	303	20	7	22%	8%	114	+2.3	242/308/387	145	290	17	4	22%	8%	97	+1.1	230/297/357	127	277	16	2	22%	7%	86	+0.2
✕Stephen Vogt 2016 · MLB	31	51→59	53→60	41→40	51	262/322/437	175	287	21	2	17%	8%	113	+2.3	248/303/420	172	273	20	3	17%	7%	102	+1.5	244/299/429	184	272	20	2	18%	7%	104	+1.0
✕Logan Forsythe 2017 · MLB	30	52→57	52→50	44→50	50	263/334/432	169	307	19	8	21%	8%	116	+2.5	238/330/356	118	306	11	6	23%	11%	98	+1.2	224/327/314	90	299	7	4	24%	12%	88	+0.3
✕Curt Casali 2020 · MLB	31	49	48→50	40→30	48	244/309/380	137	296	16	3	23%	8%	95	+1.0	230/320/392	162	298	19	5	28%	10%	103	+1.5	207/312/292	85	276	8	0	25%	11%	77	-0.1
✕Nick Hundley 2012 · MLB	28	52→45	50→55	42→40	47	258/319/426	168	322	16	4	24%	8%	109	+2.0	224/275/358	134	280	14	3	25%	6%	78	-0.3	259/299/420	161	312	16	3	22%	5%	102	+0.8
●J.P. Crawford 2024 · MLB	29	54→57	46→45	42→50	60	261/356/399	138	300	13	3	17%	12%	117	+2.6	242/338/373	131	289	14	6	20%	12%	105	+1.7	233/331/352	119	279	14	5	20%	12%	98	+1.1
✕Dioner Navarro 2015 · MLB	31	54→61	49→50	46→45	49	272/320/411	139	294	17	4	15%	6%	106	+1.8	239/296/370	131	274	15	4	18%	7%	88	+0.4	209/274/317	109	246	12	1	20%	8%	68	-0.4
●David Bell 2003 · MLB	30	50→57	50	40	52	254/316/411	157	264	18	3	13%	8%	105	+1.7	249/320/388	139	266	14	2	12%	9%	101	+1.4	263/328/396	133	283	13	1	12%	8%	106	+1.8
●Saul Soto 2009 · AAA	30	49→59	50→55	41→45	47	251/301/403	152	280	18	5	18%	6%	98	+1.2	261/317/408	147	294	17	5	17%	7%	104	+1.6	262/321/406	144	292	17	3	16%	7%	104	+1.0
✕Matt Wieters 2016 · MLB	30	50→60	51→55	44→40	47	252/304/411	158	293	18	3	21%	7%	101	+1.4	238/298/380	142	274	17	3	20%	7%	91	+0.7	229/294/362	134	259	17	1	19%	8%	87	+0.2

Ryan Jeffers

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps