Omar Narváez

C Round Rock Express

Age 35 L/R 5'11" / 240 lbs AAA HR +15%BB +5% Svc 11.000 · Ctrl thru 2027

Overview

AAAExt / FA-dealFA 2028

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2023	31	MLBNYM	146	.211/.289/.297	2	0	68	0.3
2024	32	AAAHOU	169	.196/.331/.304	3	0	40	—	.150/.247/.224
2024	32	MLBNYM	69	.154/.191/.185	0	0	6	-0.6
2025	33	AAATEX	295	.254/.379/.352	5	0	66	—	.205/.300/.283
2026	34	No MLB games played
2027PROJ10% MLB	35	MLBTEX	19	.225/.311/.328	0	0	83	0.0
2028PROJ	36	MLBTEX	118	.213/.297/.302	1	0	72	-0.6

Last 3 seasons WAR -0.3 · Next 2 projected WAR -0.6Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2027Service11.000First FA2028

2027Ext / FA-deal$1M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2023-2025

xwOBA26

Barrel%25

Avg EV11

Speed10

Bat Spd10

CompsMatt Treanor (age 34) · Gerald Laird (age 34) · Austin Nola (age 34)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†83

AVG/OBP/SLG.225 / .311 / .328

PA19

HR0

K%21

BB%11

BABIP273

ISO59

MLB%10%

Value2027 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · ContractCON 55 / POW 40

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2023-2025

CONTACT55

xAVG

200.227

POWER40

Barrel%

254.9

Avg EV

1186.1

Bat Spd

1066.7

EYE60

scouting grade only

SPEED45

Sprint

1023.1

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status FA

MLB Debut 2016

Service 11.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2027

First FA Year 2028

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Ext / FA-deal	$1M	+0.0	$0.1M	-$1M
Totals		$1M		$0.1M	-$1M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run 1-3 WAR low.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2009	17	ROK	VSL Rays	—	189	165	52	7	3	0	19	13	2	4	4	315	392	394	786	79	340	7	10	352	54	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	18	ROK	VSL Rays	—	175	143	44	4	1	1	27	11	2	3	0	308	424	371	795	63	323	6	15	363	60	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	19	ROK	GCL Rays	—	159	140	31	4	0	0	16	16	1	1	1	221	306	250	556	29	248	10	10	261	23	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	20	ROK	Princeton Rays	—	173	151	46	7	1	1	17	19	2	4	2	305	382	384	766	79	341	11	10	344	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	22	A+	Winston-Salem Dash	—	174	140	39	8	0	2	27	21	2	3	2	279	402	379	781	100	306	12	16	350	97	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	22	A	Kannapolis Intimidators	—	142	127	37	3	0	0	9	11	1	0	0	291	343	315	658	24	306	8	6	293	77	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	23	A+	Winston-Salem Dash	—	385	339	93	10	0	1	40	31	2	1	0	274	354	313	667	38	297	8	10	308	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	23	INTL	Bravos de Margarita	—	30	27	7	3	0	0	3	8	0	0	0	259	333	370	704	111	368	27	10	319	102	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	24	MLB	Chicago White Sox	—	117	101	27	4	0	1	14	14	0	0	0	267	357	337	693	69	295	12	12	315	95	-1	+0	+0	+6	+3	0.8
2016	24	AAA	Charlotte Knights	—	156	143	35	6	0	2	9	17	1	0	0	245	294	329	623	84	264	11	6	278	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	24	AA	Birmingham Barons	—	49	45	10	2	0	0	4	8	0	0	0	222	286	267	552	44	270	16	8	257	36	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	25	MLB	Chicago White Sox	—	295	253	70	10	0	2	38	45	1	0	0	277	373	340	713	63	330	15	13	328	106	+2	+0	+4	+5	+6	1.8
2018	26	MLB	Chicago White Sox	—	322	280	77	14	1	9	38	65	2	0	2	275	366	429	794	154	330	20	12	355	124	+9	-1	-10	+6	+7	1.2
2019	27	MLB	Seattle Mariners	—	482	428	119	12	0	22	47	92	4	0	0	278	355	460	815	182	306	19	10	361	132	+18	+0	-12	+9	+10	2.6
2020	28	MLB	Milwaukee Brewers	—	126	108	19	4	0	2	16	39	2	0	0	176	294	269	562	93	254	31	13	267	68	-5	+0	+7	+2	+3	0.7
2021	29	MLB	Milwaukee Brewers	—	445	391	104	20	0	11	41	84	7	0	0	266	346	402	748	136	308	19	9	333	110	+5	+0	+14	+8	+10	3.8
2022	30	MLB	Milwaukee Brewers	—	296	262	54	12	1	4	29	57	3	0	0	206	293	305	598	99	248	19	10	275	72	-10	+0	+13	+5	+6	1.5
2023	31	MLB	New York Mets	—	146	128	27	5	0	2	14	27	0	0	0	211	289	297	586	86	245	18	10	263	68	-5	+0	+3	+3	+3	0.3
2023	31	AAA	Syracuse Mets	—	18	15	3	1	0	0	3	3	0	0	0	200	333	267	600	67	250	17	17	288	40	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	32	MLB	New York Mets	—	69	65	10	2	0	0	3	12	0	0	0	154	191	185	376	31	189	17	4	172	6	-8	+0	-4	+4	+1	-0.6
2024	32	AAA	Sugar Land Space Cowboys	—	169	138	27	4	1	3	26	31	2	0	0	196	331	304	636	109	224	18	15	295	40	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	33	AAA	Round Rock Express	—	295	244	62	9	0	5	43	50	6	0	0	254	379	352	731	98	298	17	15	338	66	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	2298	2016	507	83	2	53	240	435	19	0	2	251	337	374	710	122	294	19	10	320	103	+7	-1	+15	+48	+50	12.2
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2009	17	ROK MLE	VSL Rays	—	189	170	38	5	2	0	14	16	2	4	4	224	290	276	567	53	237	8	7	248	54	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	18	ROK MLE	VSL Rays	—	175	152	34	3	1	1	18	13	2	3	0	224	314	276	590	53	222	7	10	257	60	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	19	ROK MLE	GCL Rays	—	159	147	27	3	0	0	9	23	1	1	1	184	236	204	440	20	212	14	6	202	23	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	20	ROK MLE	Princeton Rays	—	173	158	41	6	1	1	10	27	2	4	2	259	312	329	641	70	292	16	6	274	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	22	A+ MLE	Winston-Salem Dash	—	174	150	41	7	0	2	17	31	2	3	2	273	355	360	715	87	304	18	10	311	97	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	22	A MLE	Kannapolis Intimidators	—	142	130	38	3	0	0	6	14	1	0	0	292	328	315	644	23	298	10	4	282	77	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	23	A+ MLE	Winston-Salem Dash	—	385	356	91	7	0	1	23	47	2	1	0	256	304	284	588	28	286	12	6	265	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	24	MLB MLE	Chicago White Sox	—	117	102	27	4	0	1	13	14	0	0	0	265	348	333	681	69	295	12	11	309	95	-1	+0	+0	+6	+3	0.8
2016	24	AAA MLE	Charlotte Knights	—	156	145	35	6	0	2	7	19	1	0	0	241	281	324	605	83	252	12	4	255	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	24	AA MLE	Birmingham Barons	—	49	46	9	2	0	0	3	10	0	0	0	196	245	239	484	43	256	20	6	221	36	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	25	MLB MLE	Chicago White Sox	—	295	254	70	10	0	2	37	45	1	0	0	276	370	339	708	63	330	15	13	325	106	+2	+0	+4	+5	+6	1.8
2018	26	MLB MLE	Chicago White Sox	—	322	281	77	14	1	9	37	65	2	0	2	274	362	427	790	153	330	20	11	351	124	+9	-1	-10	+6	+7	1.2
2019	27	MLB MLE	Seattle Mariners	—	482	429	120	12	0	23	46	92	4	0	0	280	355	469	823	189	306	19	10	363	132	+18	+0	-12	+9	+10	2.6
2020	28	MLB MLE	Milwaukee Brewers	—	126	108	19	4	0	2	16	39	2	0	0	176	294	269	562	93	254	31	13	269	68	-5	+0	+7	+2	+3	0.7
2021	29	MLB MLE	Milwaukee Brewers	—	445	394	104	21	0	10	38	84	7	0	0	264	339	393	733	129	308	19	9	331	110	+5	+0	+14	+8	+10	3.8
2022	30	MLB MLE	Milwaukee Brewers	—	296	263	55	13	1	4	28	57	3	0	0	209	293	312	604	103	248	19	9	275	72	-10	+0	+13	+5	+6	1.5
2023	31	MLB MLE	New York Mets	—	146	128	28	5	0	2	14	27	0	0	0	219	296	305	600	86	245	18	10	269	68	-5	+0	+3	+3	+3	0.3
2023	31	AAA MLE	Syracuse Mets	—	18	16	3	1	0	0	2	4	0	0	0	188	278	250	528	62	221	22	11	228	40	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	32	MLB MLE	New York Mets	—	69	65	10	2	0	0	3	12	0	0	0	154	191	185	376	31	189	17	4	177	6	-8	+0	-4	+4	+1	-0.6
2024	32	AAA MLE	Sugar Land Space Cowboys	—	169	147	22	3	1	2	17	37	2	0	0	150	247	224	471	75	182	22	10	227	40	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	33	AAA MLE	Round Rock Express	—	295	258	53	8	0	4	29	55	6	0	0	205	300	283	583	78	242	19	10	266	66	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	17	ROK MLE	VSL Rays	—	189	170	38	5	2	0	14	16	2	4	4	224	290	276	567	53	245	8	7	248	54	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	17	ROK RAW	VSL Rays	—	189	165	52	7	3	0	19	13	2	4	4	315	392	394	786	79	340	7	10	352	54	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	18	ROK MLE	VSL Rays	—	175	152	34	3	1	1	18	13	2	3	0	224	314	276	590	53	236	7	10	257	60	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	18	ROK RAW	VSL Rays	—	175	143	44	4	1	1	27	11	2	3	0	308	424	371	795	63	323	6	15	363	60	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	19	ROK MLE	GCL Rays	—	159	147	27	3	0	0	9	23	1	1	1	184	236	204	440	20	216	14	6	202	23	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	19	ROK RAW	GCL Rays	—	159	140	31	4	0	0	16	16	1	1	1	221	306	250	556	29	248	10	10	261	23	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	20	ROK MLE	Princeton Rays	—	173	158	41	6	1	1	10	27	2	4	2	259	312	329	641	70	305	16	6	274	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	20	ROK RAW	Princeton Rays	—	173	151	46	7	1	1	17	19	2	4	2	305	382	384	766	79	341	11	10	344	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	22	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	316	280	78	10	0	2	23	45	3	3	2	279	340	336	676	57	314	14	7	298	88	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	22	A+ RAW	2 teams	—	316	267	76	11	0	2	36	32	3	3	2	285	376	348	724	64	306	10	11	325	88	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	23	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	415	384	98	8	0	1	25	51	2	1	0	255	304	284	588	29	290	12	6	265	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	23	A+ RAW	2 teams	—	415	366	100	13	0	1	43	39	2	1	0	273	353	317	670	44	301	9	10	309	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	24	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	322	294	71	12	0	3	22	43	1	0	0	241	297	313	609	71	271	13	7	269	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	24	AAA RAW	3 teams	—	322	289	72	12	0	3	27	39	1	0	0	249	315	322	637	73	276	12	8	288	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	25	MLB MLE	Chicago White Sox	—	295	254	70	10	0	2	37	45	1	0	0	276	370	339	708	63	329	15	13	325	106	+2	+0	+4	+5	+6	1.8
2017	25	MLB RAW	Chicago White Sox	—	295	253	70	10	0	2	38	45	1	0	0	277	373	340	713	63	330	15	13	328	106	+2	+0	+4	+5	+6	1.8
2018	26	MLB MLE	Chicago White Sox	—	322	281	77	14	1	9	37	65	2	0	2	274	362	427	790	153	329	20	11	351	124	+9	-1	-10	+6	+7	1.2
2018	26	MLB RAW	Chicago White Sox	—	322	280	77	14	1	9	38	65	2	0	2	275	366	429	794	154	330	20	12	355	124	+9	-1	-10	+6	+7	1.2
2019	27	MLB MLE	Seattle Mariners	—	482	429	120	12	0	23	46	92	4	0	0	280	355	469	823	189	306	19	10	363	132	+18	+0	-12	+9	+10	2.6
2019	27	MLB RAW	Seattle Mariners	—	482	428	119	12	0	22	47	92	4	0	0	278	355	460	815	182	306	19	10	361	132	+18	+0	-12	+9	+10	2.6
2020	28	MLB MLE	Milwaukee Brewers	—	126	108	19	4	0	2	16	39	2	0	0	176	294	269	562	93	254	31	13	269	68	-5	+0	+7	+2	+3	0.7
2020	28	MLB RAW	Milwaukee Brewers	—	126	108	19	4	0	2	16	39	2	0	0	176	294	269	562	93	254	31	13	267	68	-5	+0	+7	+2	+3	0.7
2021	29	MLB MLE	Milwaukee Brewers	—	445	394	104	21	0	10	38	84	7	0	0	264	339	393	733	129	307	19	9	331	110	+5	+0	+14	+8	+10	3.8
2021	29	MLB RAW	Milwaukee Brewers	—	445	391	104	20	0	11	41	84	7	0	0	266	346	402	748	136	308	19	9	333	110	+5	+0	+14	+8	+10	3.8
2022	30	MLB MLE	Milwaukee Brewers	—	296	263	55	13	1	4	28	57	3	0	0	209	293	312	604	103	251	19	9	275	72	-10	+0	+13	+5	+6	1.5
2022	30	MLB RAW	Milwaukee Brewers	—	296	262	54	12	1	4	29	57	3	0	0	206	293	305	598	99	248	19	10	275	72	-10	+0	+13	+5	+6	1.5
2023	31	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	164	144	30	6	0	2	16	31	0	0	0	208	287	292	579	83	246	19	10	265	65	-7	+0	+3	+3	+4	0.2
2023	31	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	164	143	30	6	0	2	17	30	0	0	0	210	294	294	587	84	246	18	10	266	65	-7	+0	+3	+3	+4	0.2
2024	32	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	238	212	33	5	1	2	20	49	2	0	0	156	235	217	452	61	189	21	8	213	30	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	32	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	238	203	37	6	1	3	29	43	2	0	0	182	291	266	557	84	212	18	12	259	30	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	33	AAA MLE	Round Rock Express	—	295	258	53	8	0	4	29	55	6	0	0	205	300	283	583	78	244	19	10	266	66	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	33	AAA RAW	Round Rock Express	—	295	244	62	9	0	5	43	50	6	0	0	254	379	352	731	98	298	17	15	338	66	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	17	ROK MLE	VSL Rays	—	189	171	38	5	2	0	14	16	2	4	4	222	290	275	565	53	237	8	7	248	54	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	18	ROK MLE	VSL Rays	—	175	153	34	3	1	1	18	13	2	3	0	222	314	275	588	52	222	7	10	257	60	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	19	ROK MLE	GCL Rays	—	159	148	27	3	0	0	9	23	1	1	1	182	236	203	438	20	212	14	6	202	23	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	20	ROK MLE	Princeton Rays	—	173	159	41	6	1	1	10	27	2	4	2	258	312	327	639	69	292	16	6	274	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	22	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	316	287	78	10	0	2	23	45	3	3	2	272	340	328	667	56	301	14	7	298	88	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	23	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	415	385	98	8	0	1	25	51	2	1	0	255	304	283	587	29	286	12	6	265	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	24	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	322	296	71	12	0	3	22	43	1	0	0	240	297	311	607	71	268	13	7	269	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	25	MLB MLE	Chicago White Sox	—	295	255	70	10	0	2	37	45	1	0	0	275	370	337	707	63	330	15	13	325	106	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	26	MLB MLE	Chicago White Sox	—	322	280	77	14	1	9	37	65	2	0	2	275	362	429	791	154	330	20	11	351	124	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	27	MLB MLE	Seattle Mariners	—	482	429	120	12	0	23	46	92	4	0	0	280	355	469	823	189	306	19	10	363	132	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	28	MLB MLE	Milwaukee Brewers	—	126	107	19	4	0	2	16	39	2	0	0	178	294	271	565	93	254	31	13	269	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	29	MLB MLE	Milwaukee Brewers	—	445	397	104	21	0	10	38	84	7	0	0	262	339	390	730	128	308	19	9	331	110	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	30	MLB MLE	Milwaukee Brewers	—	296	263	55	13	1	4	28	57	3	0	0	209	293	312	604	103	248	19	9	275	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	31	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	164	147	30	6	0	2	16	31	0	0	0	204	287	286	573	82	242	19	10	265	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	32	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	238	214	33	5	1	2	20	49	2	0	0	154	235	215	450	61	184	21	8	213	30	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	33	AAA MLE	Round Rock Express	—	295	258	53	8	0	4	29	55	6	0	0	205	300	283	583	78	242	19	10	266	66	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	32	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	238	214	33	5	1	2	20	49	2	0	0	154	235	215	450	61	184	21	8	213	30	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	33	AAA MLE	Round Rock Express	—	295	258	53	8	0	4	29	55	6	0	0	205	300	283	583	78	242	19	10	266	66	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	35	MLB MLE	TEX	10%	303	267	60	13	1	4	29	61	4	2	1	225	310	327	637	102	274	20	10	291	83	-6	+0	-2	+5	+7	0.2
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	35	MLB CTX	TEX	10%	19	17	4	1	0	0	2	4	0	0	0	225	311	328	639	103	273	21	11	292	83	-0	+0	-0	+0	+0	0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	36	MLB MLE	TEX	100%	118	104	21	4	0	1	11	25	2	0	0	213	297	301	598	88	264	21	9	275	72	-4	+0	-7	+2	+3	-0.6
2028	36	MLB CTX	TEX	100%	118	104	21	4	0	1	11	25	2	0	0	213	297	302	599	89	263	21	9	276	72	-4	+0	-7	+2	+3	-0.6
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	2416	2120	528	87	2	54	251	460	21	0	2	249	334	368	703	119	292	19	10	318	82	+4	-1	+8	+50	+52	11.6
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	570	143	23	1	15	68	124	6	0	1	251	337	374	711	123	294	19	10	318	82	+1	-0	+2	+13	+14	3.1
Career	—	MLE		—	4724	4203	1008	152	8	70	417	799	45	17	12	240	315	330	645	90	278	17	9	290	82	-0	-1	+7	+54	+57	11.8
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	578	139	21	1	10	57	110	6	2	2	240	315	332	647	92	278	17	9	290	82	-0	-0	+2	+13	+14	2.9

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2025 AAARound Rock Express · 295 PAwOBA .333 → .266 (−67)K% 16.9% → 18.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	16.95%	÷1.086	×1.200	—	—	18.73%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	14.58%	÷0.962	×0.690	—	×0.942	9.85%
HBP% /PA	2.03%	—	×0.940	—	×0.942	1.80%
Singles /BIP	24.74%	÷1.053	×0.930	×0.973	×0.942	20.03%
Doubles /BIP	4.64%	÷0.881	×0.830	×0.973	×0.942	4.00%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.921	×0.970	×0.973	×0.942	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	2.58%	÷0.913	×0.700	—	×0.942	1.86%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 83, 1B 111, 2B 76, 3B 84, K 117, BB 92 — applied at half strength. Age: age 33 vs a level average of 27.2 → −5.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (5.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.973.

Result: wOBA .333 → .266; ISO .098 → .081; BABIP .298 → .242. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAASugar Land Space Cowboys · 169 PAwOBA .293 → .227 (−66)K% 18.3% → 21.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	18.34%	÷1.006	×1.200	—	—	21.89%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	15.38%	÷1.022	×0.690	—	×0.952	9.89%
HBP% /PA	1.18%	—	×0.940	—	×0.952	1.06%
Singles /BIP	17.76%	÷1.035	×0.930	×0.950	×0.952	14.43%
Doubles /BIP	3.74%	÷0.953	×0.830	×0.950	×0.952	2.94%
Triples /BIP	0.93%	÷0.900	×0.970	×0.950	×0.952	0.91%
Home runs /BIP	2.80%	÷0.903	×0.700	—	×0.952	2.07%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 81, 1B 107, 2B 91, 3B 80, K 101, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 32 vs a level average of 27.2 → −4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .293 → .227; ISO .109 → .090; BABIP .224 → .182. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAASyracuse Mets · 18 PAwOBA .282 → .228 (−54)K% 16.7% → 20.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	16.67%	÷0.961	×1.200	—	—	20.82%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	16.67%	÷0.967	×0.690	—	×0.962	11.44%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.940	—	×0.962	0.00%
Singles /BIP	16.67%	÷0.997	×0.930	—	×0.962	14.95%
Doubles /BIP	8.33%	÷0.933	×0.830	—	×0.962	7.13%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.150	×0.970	—	×0.962	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷1.003	×0.700	—	×0.962	0.00%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 101, 1B 99, 2B 87, 3B 130, K 92, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 31 vs a level average of 27.2 → −3.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.8 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .282 → .228; ISO .067 → .058; BABIP .250 → .221. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2016 AAACharlotte Knights · 156 PAwOBA .272 → .255 (−17)K% 10.9% → 12.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	10.90%	÷1.053	×1.200	—	—	12.42%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	5.77%	÷0.990	×0.690	—	×1.048	4.21%
HBP% /PA	0.64%	—	×0.940	—	×1.048	0.63%
Singles /BIP	21.43%	÷1.031	×0.930	×1.023	×1.048	20.71%
Doubles /BIP	4.76%	÷0.974	×0.830	×1.023	×1.048	4.35%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.926	×0.970	×1.023	×1.048	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	1.59%	÷0.950	×0.840	—	×1.048	1.47%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 90, 1B 106, 2B 95, 3B 85, K 111, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 27.2 → +4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.023.

Result: wOBA .272 → .255; ISO .084 → .079; BABIP .264 → .252. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2016 AABirmingham Barons · 49 PAwOBA .251 → .221 (−29)K% 16.3% → 20.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	16.33%	÷0.991	×1.220	—	—	20.09%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	8.16%	÷0.990	×0.680	—	×1.012	5.67%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.840	—	×1.012	0.00%
Singles /BIP	21.62%	÷1.004	×0.920	—	×1.012	20.05%
Doubles /BIP	5.41%	÷0.897	×0.910	—	×1.012	5.55%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.150	×0.880	—	×1.012	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷0.918	×0.800	—	×1.012	0.00%

Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 84, 1B 101, 2B 79, 3B 130, K 98, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .251 → .221; ISO .044 → .045; BABIP .270 → .256. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2015 A+Winston-Salem Dash · 385 PAwOBA .302 → .265 (−37)K% 8.1% → 12.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	8.05%	÷0.932	×1.420	—	—	12.26%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	10.13%	÷1.060	×0.630	—	×0.998	6.01%
HBP% /PA	0.52%	—	×0.860	—	×0.998	0.45%
Singles /BIP	26.62%	÷0.963	×0.940	×1.020	×0.998	26.44%
Doubles /BIP	3.25%	÷1.175	×0.830	×1.020	×0.998	2.33%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.150	×0.800	×1.020	×0.998	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.32%	÷1.090	×0.900	—	×0.998	0.27%

Factors used: league row CAR. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 118, 1B 93, 2B 135, 3B 130, K 86, BB 112 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.020.

Result: wOBA .302 → .265; ISO .038 → .029; BABIP .297 → .286. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2014 A+Winston-Salem Dash · 174 PAwOBA .350 → .311 (−39)K% 12.1% → 17.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	12.07%	÷0.961	×1.420	—	—	17.84%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	15.52%	÷1.012	×0.630	—	×1.012	9.77%
HBP% /PA	1.15%	—	×0.860	—	×1.012	1.00%
Singles /BIP	24.37%	÷0.949	×0.940	×1.043	×1.012	25.47%
Doubles /BIP	6.72%	÷1.069	×0.830	×1.043	×1.012	5.51%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.150	×0.800	×1.043	×1.012	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	1.68%	÷1.065	×0.900	—	×1.012	1.44%

Factors used: league row CAR. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 113, 1B 90, 2B 114, 3B 130, K 92, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.043.

Result: wOBA .350 → .311; ISO .100 → .087; BABIP .306 → .304. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2014 AKannapolis Intimidators · 142 PAwOBA .296 → .282 (−14)K% 7.7% → 10.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	7.75%	÷1.017	×1.340	—	—	10.21%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	6.34%	÷0.990	×0.660	—	—	4.22%
HBP% /PA	0.70%	—	×0.770	—	—	0.54%
Singles /BIP	29.31%	÷0.982	×0.920	×1.050	—	28.82%
Doubles /BIP	2.59%	÷0.997	×0.820	×1.050	—	2.23%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.118	×0.940	×1.050	—	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷0.886	×0.820	—	—	0.00%

Factors used: league row SAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 77, 1B 96, 2B 99, 3B 124, K 103, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.0 → +0.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.

Result: wOBA .296 → .282; ISO .024 → .021; BABIP .306 → .298. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 10 projected seasons	3.7	2,435	55	0	250	331	370	+39	+15	11.1	11.3
/162	664	15	0	+10.7	+4.0	3.0	pk7: 12
#1Josh Bardlast yr '11 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,958 PA	2.9	1,958	38	1	252	318	381	+33	+24	10.4	10.4
/162	664	13	0	+11.1	+8.0	3.5	pk7: 11
#2A.J. Ellislast yr '18 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,290 PA	3.4	2,290	44	2	240	342	354	+41	-16	8.9	9.1
/162	664	13	1	+11.9	-4.7	2.6	pk7: 9
#3Jorge Alfarolast yr '23 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,693 PA	2.5	1,693	48	18	254	303	396	+30	+17	9.1	9.1
/162	664	19	7	+11.9	+6.6	3.6	pk7: 9
#4Bob Stinson'69-'80 * career totals — 8 seasons, 1,905 PA	2.9	1,905	33	8	246*	337*	384*	+33	+0	8.6	8.9
/162	664	12	3	+11.5	+0.1	3.0	pk7: 9
#5Jim Essian'73-'84 * career totals — 9 seasons, 2,146 PA	3.2	2,146	33	9	239*	326*	368*	+34	-1	8.0	7.9
/162	664	10	3	+10.5	-0.4	2.5	pk7: 8
#6Tony Eusebio'91-'01 * career totals — 8 seasons, 1,955 PA	2.9	1,955	30	1	263*	331*	373*	+35	+0	7.8	7.7
/162	664	10	0	+11.9	+0.0	2.6	pk7: 8

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Omar Narváez (OGILVIE)	35	55	40	45	60	223/308/324	101	274	3	1	20%	10%	83	+0.0	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Matt Treanor 2010 · MLB	34	50	43→40	48→40	51	241/314/349	109	290	11	6	20%	8%	91	+0.6	213/304/311	98	254	10	6	19%	10%	78	-0.3	195/296/276	81	234	8	4	19%	10%	66	-0.4
✕Gerald Laird 2014 · MLB	34	54→47	42→50	44→50	53	259/329/368	109	295	8	6	15%	8%	99	+1.3	231/296/330	99	279	8	6	19%	8%	78	-0.3	199/261/248	49	253	0	0	20%	7%	47	-0.7
✕Austin Nola 2024 · MLB	34	47→52	39→45	44→45	53	222/302/306	84	261	7	4	17%	9%	76	-0.4	205/266/299	94	254	9	4	22%	7%	61	-1.5	184/234/260	76	232	7	0	23%	5%	38	-0.9
✕Rob Brantly 2024 · MLB	35	47→57	39→50	48→30	45	224/298/311	87	267	6	5	18%	6%	76	-0.4	224/282/334	110	277	10	6	22%	6%	74	-0.5	199/251/295	96	245	11	0	23%	4%	51	-0.7
✕Ramón Vázquez 2011 · MLB	34	48→58	39→45	46→50	50	230/298/321	91	284	6	4	20%	8%	77	-0.3	224/286/307	83	276	6	7	20%	8%	70	-0.9	224/285/267	42	277	2	4	18%	8%	55	-0.9
✕Skip Schumaker 2015 · MLB	35	52→62	38→45	43→50	50	248/309/333	85	294	5	5	17%	8%	84	+0.1	239/300/344	105	291	7	7	19%	8%	83	+0.1	239/299/333	94	298	2	4	19%	8%	79	-0.1
✕A.J. Ellis 2017 · MLB	36	45→54	43→45	45→40	59	221/314/334	112	252	11	5	17%	11%	87	+0.4	239/326/368	129	280	13	5	19%	10%	99	+1.3	241/338/360	119	287	13	0	19%	11%	103	+0.4
✕Gary Bennett 2007 · MLB	35	46	42→40	43→40	50	223/281/323	100	253	10	4	17%	7%	72	-0.7	234/286/354	120	252	13	7	13%	6%	80	-0.1	241/277/321	80	257	7	4	9%	4%	69	-0.3
✕Brent Mayne 2003 · MLB	35	53→50	39→40	40	53	253/314/337	84	284	7	5	14%	8%	86	+0.3	232/293/321	89	269	8	4	16%	8%	75	-0.5	226/285/302	76	263	6	1	16%	7%	68	-0.5
✕Chris Gomez 2006 · MLB	35	56→54	38→45	45→40	56	264/326/345	81	284	5	6	9%	8%	93	+0.8	275/323/363	88	304	6	5	11%	6%	96	+1.0	290/327/364	74	326	4	2	12%	5%	97	+0.4
✕Yosmany Guerra 2017 · AAA	34	53→57	39→40	42→45	53	248/311/333	85	285	6	8	15%	8%	84	+0.2	251/305/354	103	292	5	7	15%	7%	86	+0.3	256/310/364	108	299	5	5	15%	7%	89	+0.4
✕Sandy León 2024 · MLB	35	41→51	41→45	46→30	48	199/279/294	95	266	9	4	27%	9%	65	-1.2	168/243/261	93	254	11	5	36%	8%	44	-2.8	127/200/199	72	195	10	3	39%	8%	13	-1.9
✕Hector Castaneda 2007 · AAA	35	53	38→30	50→45	54	246/321/326	80	302	4	5	19%	10%	87	+0.4	247/328/317	70	302	5	6	18%	9%	88	+0.4	252/341/304	53	304	3	5	16%	10%	88	+0.2
✕Brian Schneider 2012 · MLB	35	43→53	44→50	47→30	51	215/286/327	112	252	11	4	20%	9%	75	-0.5	223/288/349	126	268	13	7	21%	7%	80	-0.1	204/261/312	108	242	9	0	19%	5%	62	-0.3
✕Mike Redmond 2005 · MLB	34	53	39→40	45→30	49	252/312/345	93	277	6	4	12%	6%	88	+0.4	279/326/367	88	306	5	4	10%	5%	98	+1.2	307/346/374	67	335	2	0	9%	4%	107	+0.7
✕Kevin Plawecki 2024 · MLB	33	48→58	40→45	47→30	48	232/292/324	92	281	7	3	20%	7%	76	-0.4	222/280/343	121	261	13	5	20%	7%	76	-0.4	205/261/322	117	231	14	0	18%	7%	61	-0.7
✕Ricky Gutierrez 2005 · MLB	35	51→58	39→45	47→45	50	242/301/323	81	270	7	6	13%	7%	79	-0.2	208/274/292	84	251	7	8	19%	7%	62	-1.4	157/232/177	20	198	0	4	19%	7%	19	-1.1
✕Brayan Peña 2017 · MLB	35	52→59	37→50	45	50	243/292/316	72	269	5	5	12%	6%	73	-0.6	231/278/315	84	254	8	8	12%	6%	68	-1.0	232/259/251	19	248	0	4	6%	3%	42	-0.6
✕Ryan Hanigan 2017 · MLB	36	44→54	41→40	47→40	51	215/296/310	96	260	9	4	21%	9%	75	-0.5	219/284/309	90	283	9	5	24%	7%	70	-0.9	229/291/287	58	311	6	0	26%	7%	72	-0.2
✕Jesus Alfredo Arredondo 2007 · AAA	35	55→58	38→30	41→40	49	261/315/334	73	294	6	5	14%	6%	86	+0.3	252/320/317	65	287	4	4	13%	7%	84	+0.2	259/326/307	47	294	2	3	11%	7%	81	-0.0

Omar Narváez

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps