Jorge Alfaro

C Northwest Arkansas Naturals

Age 34 R/R 6'1" / 243 lbs AA HR -15%K -8% Svc 11.000 · Ctrl thru 2027

Overview

AAExt / FA-dealFA 2028

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2024	31	INTLTigres del Li…	36	.303/.361/.455	1	0	133	—
2025	32	AAAMIL	326	.244/.286/.430	15	12	38	—	.186/.222/.296
2025	32	MLBWSH	39	.256/.256/.308	0	1	56	0.4
2026	33	AAA/AA/INTL3 orgs	284	.218/.282/.440	15	1	40	—	.160/.216/.324
2027PROJ22% MLB	34	MLBKC	47	.212/.251/.360	2	1	73	0.0
2028PROJ	35	MLBKC	141	.201/.238/.337	4	1	62	-0.8

Last 3 seasons WAR 0.4 · Next 2 projected WAR -0.7Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2027Service11.000First FA2028

2027Ext / FA-deal$0.9M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2022-2025

Bat Spd90

Speed68

Barrel%63

Avg EV49

xwOBA32

CompsJohn Hicks (age 33) · Carlos M. Rodriguez (age 33) · Adam Rosales (age 35)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†73

AVG/OBP/SLG.212 / .251 / .360

PA47

HR2

K%40

BB%2

BABIP328

ISO178

MLB%22%

Value2027 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · Contract

ToolsStatcast %ile · 2022-2025

CONTACT

xAVG

260.232

POWER

Barrel%

6310.1

Avg EV

4989.1

Bat Spd

9075.9

SPEED

Sprint

6828.2

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status FA

MLB Debut 2016

Service 11.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2027

First FA Year 2028

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Ext / FA-deal	$0.9M	—	—	—
Totals		$0.9M		$0.0M	-$0.9M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run 1-3 WAR low.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2010	17	ROK	DSL Rangers	—	187	172	38	5	2	1	5	48	9	1	4	221	280	291	570	70	298	26	3	262	2	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	19	A	Hickory Crawdads	—	300	272	71	21	5	5	16	84	9	7	3	261	323	430	753	169	355	28	5	331	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	19	INTL	Leones de Ponce	—	66	65	19	2	1	2	1	16	0	0	2	292	303	446	749	154	362	24	2	329	109	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	20	A	Hickory Crawdads	—	420	372	96	22	1	16	28	111	18	16	3	258	340	452	791	194	324	26	7	351	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	20	ROK	AZL Rangers	—	26	21	9	2	0	2	2	6	2	2	0	429	520	810	1.330	381	500	23	8	543	162	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	20	INTL	Surprise Saguaros	—	80	70	27	6	1	0	5	17	3	2	3	386	449	500	949	114	491	21	6	414	166	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	21	AA	Frisco RoughRiders	—	99	88	23	4	0	4	6	23	5	0	0	261	343	443	787	182	311	23	6	352	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	21	A+	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	—	437	398	104	22	5	13	23	100	12	6	5	261	321	440	761	178	315	23	5	334	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	22	AA	Frisco RoughRiders	—	207	190	48	15	2	5	9	61	8	2	1	253	314	432	746	179	347	29	4	331	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	22	INTL	Tiburones de La Guaira	—	44	42	11	1	0	1	0	16	0	0	1	262	262	357	619	95	400	36	0	262	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	23	MLB	Philadelphia Phillies	—	17	16	2	0	0	0	1	8	0	0	0	125	176	125	301		250	47	6	148	-42	-3	+0	+0	+10	+0	0.8
2016	23	AA	Reading Fightin Phils	—	435	404	115	21	2	15	22	105	4	3	2	285	328	458	786	173	347	24	5	343	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	23	INTL	Tiburones de La Guaira	—	112	105	22	5	1	3	3	35	4	3	1	210	259	362	621	152	284	31	3	277	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	24	MLB	Philadelphia Phillies	—	114	107	34	6	0	5	3	33	4	0	0	318	360	514	874	196	420	29	3	386	139	+5	+0	-2	+8	+2	1.4
2017	24	AAA	Lehigh Valley IronPigs	—	350	324	78	13	2	7	16	113	8	1	1	241	293	358	651	117	345	32	5	292	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	25	MLB	Philadelphia Phillies	—	377	344	90	16	2	10	18	138	14	3	0	262	324	407	731	145	406	37	5	328	98	-1	+1	+18	+7	+8	3.3
2019	26	MLB	Miami Marlins	—	465	431	113	14	1	18	22	154	10	4	4	262	313	425	738	162	364	33	5	327	114	+8	-1	+3	+8	+10	2.9
2020	27	MLB	Miami Marlins	—	100	93	21	2	0	3	4	36	3	2	0	226	280	344	624	118	333	36	4	283	78	-3	+0	-2	+2	+2	-0.1
2021	28	MLB	Miami Marlins	—	311	295	72	15	1	4	11	99	5	8	1	244	283	342	625	98	354	32	4	282	83	-6	+1	+3	+6	+7	1.1
2021	28	AAA	Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp	—	16	16	4	0	0	2	0	1	0	0	0	250	250	625	875	375	154	6	0	373	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	29	MLB	San Diego Padres	—	274	256	63	14	0	7	11	98	4	1	0	246	288	383	671	137	364	36	4	296	90	-3	+0	-1	+6	+6	0.8
2022	29	AAA	El Paso Chihuahuas	—	16	15	4	1	0	2	1	5	0	0	0	267	312	733	1.046	467	250	31	6	441	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	29	INTL	Tigres del Licey	—	22	21	6	2	0	0	0	6	0	0	0	286	286	381	667	95	375	27	0	281	77	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	30	MLB	Boston Red Sox	—	52	48	7	4	0	1	2	15	2	0	0	146	212	292	503	146	188	29	4	229	34	-4	+0	-0	+7	+1	0.4
2023	30	AAA	Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp	—	278	254	74	17	2	7	14	65	7	5	0	291	345	457	802	165	362	23	5	352	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	30	INTL	Tigres del Licey	—	72	64	11	3	0	0	4	21	3	0	0	172	254	219	472	47	250	29	6	223	37	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	31	INTL	Tigres del Licey	—	36	33	10	2	0	1	2	7	1	0	0	303	361	455	816	152	360	19	6	364	133	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	32	MLB	Washington Nationals	—	39	39	10	2	0	0	0	14	0	1	0	256	256	308	564	51	400	36	0	251	56	-2	+0	-2	+7	+1	0.4
2025	32	AAA	Nashville Sounds	—	326	307	75	10	1	15	11	119	7	12	0	244	286	430	716	186	345	37	3	315	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	33	AAA	Omaha Storm Chasers	—	25	23	6	2	0	1	1	7	1	0	0	261	320	478	798	217	333	28	4	352	58	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	33	AA	Northwest Arkansas Naturals	—	233	210	46	8	1	14	12	100	8	1	2	219	287	467	754	248	323	43	5	327	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	33	INTL	Yaquis de Obregon	—	26	24	4	0	0	0	0	7	1	0	0	167	200	167	367		222	27	0	167	0	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	1749	1629	412	73	4	48	72	595	42	19	5	253	302	391	693	138	367	34	4	309	95	-9	+2	+17	+60	+38	10.9
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2010	17	ROK MLE	DSL Rangers	—	187	175	25	3	1	0	2	59	9	1	4	143	194	171	365	29	212	32	1	171	2	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	19	A MLE	Hickory Crawdads	—	300	278	58	16	5	3	11	118	9	7	3	209	263	335	597	126	335	39	4	258	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	20	A MLE	Hickory Crawdads	—	420	382	76	18	1	11	18	150	18	16	3	199	268	338	606	139	283	36	4	262	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	20	ROK MLE	AZL Rangers	—	26	22	7	1	0	2	1	9	2	2	0	318	400	636	1.036	318	381	35	4	408	162	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	21	AA MLE	Frisco RoughRiders	—	99	91	20	4	0	2	3	29	5	0	0	220	283	330	612	110	298	29	3	283	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	21	A+ MLE	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	—	437	405	89	17	4	11	16	149	12	6	5	220	270	363	633	143	305	34	4	272	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	22	AA MLE	Frisco RoughRiders	—	207	192	40	12	2	4	7	72	8	2	1	208	266	354	620	146	309	35	3	268	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	23	MLB MLE	Philadelphia Phillies	—	17	17	2	0	0	0	0	8	0	0	0	118	118	118	235		250	47	0	106	-42	-3	+0	+0	+10	+0	0.8
2016	23	AA MLE	Reading Fightin Phils	—	435	411	103	18	2	9	15	137	4	3	2	251	284	370	654	119	343	31	3	281	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	24	MLB MLE	Philadelphia Phillies	—	114	108	34	6	0	5	2	33	4	0	0	315	351	509	860	194	420	29	2	374	139	+5	+0	-2	+8	+2	1.4
2017	24	AAA MLE	Lehigh Valley IronPigs	—	350	329	67	11	2	5	11	141	8	1	1	204	247	295	542	91	331	40	3	241	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	25	MLB MLE	Philadelphia Phillies	—	377	350	89	16	2	9	12	138	14	3	0	254	306	389	694	134	406	37	3	313	98	-1	+1	+18	+7	+8	3.3
2019	26	MLB MLE	Miami Marlins	—	465	432	116	15	1	19	21	154	10	4	4	269	317	440	757	171	364	33	5	336	114	+8	-1	+3	+8	+10	2.9
2020	27	MLB MLE	Miami Marlins	—	100	94	21	2	0	3	3	36	3	2	0	223	270	340	610	117	333	36	3	284	78	-3	+0	-2	+2	+2	-0.1
2021	28	MLB MLE	Miami Marlins	—	311	295	74	16	1	4	11	99	5	8	1	251	289	353	642	102	354	32	4	291	83	-6	+1	+3	+6	+7	1.1
2021	28	AAA MLE	Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp	—	16	16	4	0	0	2	0	1	0	0	0	250	250	625	875	375	141	6	0	296	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	29	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	—	274	256	64	15	0	7	11	98	4	1	0	250	292	391	682	141	364	36	4	301	90	-3	+0	-1	+6	+6	0.8
2022	29	AAA MLE	El Paso Chihuahuas	—	16	15	3	1	0	1	1	6	0	0	0	200	250	467	717	267	181	38	6	261	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	30	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	—	52	48	7	4	0	1	2	15	2	0	0	146	212	292	503	146	188	29	4	218	34	-4	+0	-0	+7	+1	0.4
2023	30	AAA MLE	Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp	—	278	259	66	15	2	5	9	75	7	5	0	255	298	386	684	131	324	27	3	290	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	32	MLB MLE	Washington Nationals	—	39	39	10	2	0	0	0	14	0	1	0	256	256	308	564	51	400	36	0	250	56	-2	+0	-2	+7	+1	0.4
2025	32	AAA MLE	Nashville Sounds	—	326	311	58	8	1	8	7	141	7	12	0	186	222	296	517	109	303	43	2	225	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	33	AAA MLE	Omaha Storm Chasers	—	25	23	4	1	0	1	1	8	1	0	0	174	240	348	588	174	273	32	4	254	58	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	33	AA MLE	Northwest Arkansas Naturals	—	233	215	34	6	1	9	7	122	8	1	2	158	213	321	534	163	270	52	3	230	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	17	ROK MLE	DSL Rangers	—	187	175	25	3	1	0	2	59	9	1	4	143	194	171	365	29	214	32	1	171	2	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	17	ROK RAW	DSL Rangers	—	187	172	38	5	2	1	5	48	9	1	4	221	280	291	570	70	298	26	3	262	2	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	19	A MLE	2 teams	—	366	341	71	19	6	4	13	144	9	7	5	208	256	334	591	126	342	39	4	258	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	19	A RAW	2 teams	—	366	337	90	23	6	7	17	100	9	7	5	267	320	433	753	166	356	27	5	331	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	20	A MLE	3 teams	—	526	475	97	23	1	15	23	187	23	20	6	204	274	352	626	147	295	36	4	271	69	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	20	A RAW	3 teams	—	526	463	132	30	2	18	35	134	23	20	6	285	365	475	840	190	361	25	7	370	69	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	21	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	536	496	109	21	4	13	19	177	17	6	5	220	273	357	629	137	310	33	4	274	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	21	A+ RAW	2 teams	—	536	486	127	26	5	17	29	123	17	6	5	261	325	440	766	179	314	23	5	338	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	22	AA MLE	2 teams	—	251	233	49	15	2	5	8	87	8	2	2	210	261	356	617	146	312	35	3	268	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	22	AA RAW	2 teams	—	251	232	59	16	2	6	9	77	8	2	2	254	305	418	723	164	356	31	4	319	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	23	AA MLE	3 teams	—	564	532	131	23	2	11	19	181	8	6	3	246	283	359	642	113	349	32	3	274	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	23	AA RAW	3 teams	—	564	525	139	26	3	18	26	148	8	6	3	265	309	429	738	164	333	26	5	324	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	24	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	464	437	101	17	2	10	13	174	12	1	1	231	273	348	621	117	357	38	3	274	71	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	24	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	464	431	112	19	2	12	19	146	12	1	1	260	310	397	706	137	364	31	4	315	71	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	25	MLB MLE	Philadelphia Phillies	—	377	350	89	16	2	9	12	138	14	3	0	254	306	389	694	134	392	37	3	313	98	-1	+1	+18	+7	+8	3.3
2018	25	MLB RAW	Philadelphia Phillies	—	377	344	90	16	2	10	18	138	14	3	0	262	324	407	731	145	406	37	5	328	98	-1	+1	+18	+7	+8	3.3
2019	26	MLB MLE	Miami Marlins	—	465	432	116	15	1	19	21	154	10	4	4	269	317	440	757	171	372	33	5	336	114	+8	-1	+3	+8	+10	2.9
2019	26	MLB RAW	Miami Marlins	—	465	431	113	14	1	18	22	154	10	4	4	262	313	425	738	162	364	33	5	327	114	+8	-1	+3	+8	+10	2.9
2020	27	MLB MLE	Miami Marlins	—	100	94	21	2	0	3	3	36	3	2	0	223	270	340	610	117	327	36	3	284	78	-3	+0	-2	+2	+2	-0.1
2020	27	MLB RAW	Miami Marlins	—	100	93	21	2	0	3	4	36	3	2	0	226	280	344	624	118	333	36	4	283	78	-3	+0	-2	+2	+2	-0.1
2021	28	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	327	311	78	16	1	6	11	100	5	8	1	251	287	367	654	116	351	31	3	292	84	-6	+1	+3	+6	+7	1.1
2021	28	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	327	311	76	15	1	6	11	100	5	8	1	244	281	357	638	113	341	31	3	286	84	-6	+1	+3	+6	+7	1.1
2022	29	MLB MLE	3 teams	—	312	291	72	17	0	9	13	112	4	1	0	247	289	399	688	151	362	36	4	298	88	-4	+0	-1	+6	+7	0.8
2022	29	MLB RAW	3 teams	—	312	292	73	17	0	9	12	109	4	1	0	250	289	401	690	151	360	35	4	303	88	-4	+0	-1	+6	+7	0.8
2023	30	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	402	372	87	22	2	7	14	110	12	5	0	234	284	360	644	126	309	27	3	279	75	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	30	AAA RAW	3 teams	—	402	366	92	24	2	8	20	101	12	5	0	251	312	393	705	142	322	25	5	313	75	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	31	INTL MLE	Tigres del Licey	—	36	33	10	2	0	1	2	7	1	0	0	303	361	455	816	152	360	19	6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	31	INTL RAW	Tigres del Licey	—	36	33	10	2	0	1	2	7	1	0	0	303	361	455	816	152	360	19	6	364	133	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	32	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	365	350	68	10	1	8	7	155	7	13	0	194	225	297	522	103	319	42	2	228	40	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	32	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	365	346	85	12	1	15	11	133	7	13	0	246	283	416	699	171	352	36	3	309	40	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	33	AA MLE	3 teams	—	284	261	43	8	1	11	9	144	10	1	2	165	221	330	551	165	291	51	3	232	43	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	33	AA RAW	3 teams	—	284	257	56	10	1	15	13	114	10	1	2	218	282	440	722	222	311	40	5	314	43	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	17	ROK MLE	DSL Rangers	—	187	174	25	3	1	0	2	59	9	1	4	144	194	172	366	29	212	32	1	171	2	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	19	A MLE	2 teams	—	366	341	71	19	6	4	13	144	9	7	5	208	256	334	591	126	335	39	4	258	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	20	A MLE	3 teams	—	526	475	97	23	1	15	23	187	23	20	6	204	274	352	626	147	289	36	4	271	69	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	21	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	536	495	109	21	4	13	19	177	17	6	5	220	273	358	630	137	304	33	4	274	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	22	AA MLE	2 teams	—	251	233	49	15	2	5	8	87	8	2	2	210	261	356	617	146	309	35	3	268	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	23	AA MLE	3 teams	—	564	532	131	23	2	11	19	181	8	6	3	246	283	359	642	113	340	32	3	274	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	24	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	464	436	101	17	2	10	13	174	12	1	1	232	273	349	621	117	353	38	3	274	71	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	25	MLB MLE	Philadelphia Phillies	—	377	348	89	16	2	9	12	138	14	3	0	256	306	391	697	135	406	37	3	313	98	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	26	MLB MLE	Miami Marlins	—	465	431	116	15	1	19	21	154	10	4	4	269	317	441	758	172	364	33	5	336	114	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	27	MLB MLE	Miami Marlins	—	100	94	21	2	0	3	3	36	3	2	0	223	270	340	610	117	333	36	3	284	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	28	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	327	308	78	16	1	6	11	100	5	8	1	253	287	370	658	117	344	31	3	292	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	29	MLB MLE	3 teams	—	312	292	72	17	0	9	13	112	4	1	0	247	289	397	686	151	354	36	4	298	88	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	30	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	402	373	87	22	2	7	14	110	12	5	0	233	284	359	643	126	302	27	3	279	75	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	32	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	365	348	68	10	1	8	7	155	7	13	0	195	225	299	524	103	313	42	2	228	40	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	33	AA MLE	3 teams	—	284	263	43	8	1	11	9	144	10	1	2	163	221	327	548	163	270	51	3	232	43	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2025	32	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	365	348	68	10	1	8	7	155	7	13	0	195	225	299	524	103	313	42	2	228	40	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	33	AA MLE	3 teams	—	284	263	43	8	1	11	9	144	10	1	2	163	221	327	548	163	270	51	3	232	43	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	34	MLB MLE	KC	22%	326	307	65	11	1	11	9	133	7	6	1	216	254	371	625	156	331	41	3	276	73	-11	+1	-3	+6	+7	0.0
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	34	MLB CTX	KC	22%	47	45	10	2	0	2	1	19	1	1	0	212	251	360	610	148	328	40	2	270	73	-2	+0	-0	+1	+1	0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	35	MLB MLE	KC	100%	141	133	28	4	1	5	4	59	3	1	0	204	241	347	589	143	318	42	3	260	62	-6	+0	-7	+3	+3	-0.8
2028	35	MLB CTX	KC	100%	141	133	27	4	1	4	4	59	3	1	0	201	238	337	575	136	315	42	3	255	62	-6	+0	-7	+3	+3	-0.8
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	1890	1762	439	77	5	52	76	654	45	20	5	249	297	387	684	138	364	35	4	305	71	-16	+2	+10	+63	+41	10.2
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	606	151	26	2	18	26	225	15	7	2	249	296	388	684	139	364	35	4	305	71	-5	+1	+3	+22	+14	3.5
Career	—	MLE		—	5918	5518	1238	240	28	143	199	2111	160	85	34	224	272	356	627	131	332	36	3	273	71	-23	+2	+8	+67	+46	10.2
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	606	136	26	3	16	22	232	18	9	4	224	272	356	629	132	331	36	3	273	71	-7	+1	+2	+21	+14	3.1

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AANorthwest Arkansas Naturals · 233 PAwOBA .320 → .230 (−90)K% 42.9% → 52.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	42.92%	÷1.000	×1.220	—	—	52.36%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	4.72%	÷1.000	×0.700	—	×0.940	3.11%
HBP% /PA	3.43%	—	×0.870	—	×0.940	2.81%
Singles /BIP	20.91%	÷1.000	×0.920	×1.025	×0.940	18.53%
Doubles /BIP	7.27%	÷1.000	×0.840	×1.025	×0.940	5.88%
Triples /BIP	0.91%	÷1.000	×0.940	×1.025	×0.940	0.82%
Home runs /BIP	12.73%	÷1.000	×0.800	—	×0.940	9.57%

Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 33 vs a level average of 24.8 → −6.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (8.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.025.

Result: wOBA .320 → .230; ISO .248 → .168; BABIP .323 → .270. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 AAAOmaha Storm Chasers · 25 PAwOBA .342 → .254 (−88)K% 28.0% → 33.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	28.00%	÷1.000	×1.200	—	—	33.60%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	4.00%	÷1.000	×0.690	—	×0.942	2.60%
HBP% /PA	4.00%	—	×0.940	—	×0.942	3.54%
Singles /BIP	18.75%	÷1.000	×0.930	—	×0.942	16.43%
Doubles /BIP	12.50%	÷1.000	×0.830	—	×0.942	9.77%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.970	—	×0.942	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	6.25%	÷1.000	×0.700	—	×0.942	4.12%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 33 vs a level average of 27.2 → −5.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (5.8 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .342 → .254; ISO .217 → .145; BABIP .333 → .273. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAANashville Sounds · 326 PAwOBA .307 → .225 (−83)K% 36.5% → 43.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	36.50%	÷1.010	×1.200	—	—	43.35%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	3.37%	÷1.000	×0.690	—	×0.952	2.22%
HBP% /PA	2.15%	—	×0.940	—	×0.952	1.92%
Singles /BIP	26.06%	÷0.983	×0.930	×1.022	×0.952	24.01%
Doubles /BIP	5.32%	÷0.973	×0.830	×1.022	×0.952	4.42%
Triples /BIP	0.53%	÷0.900	×0.970	×1.022	×0.952	0.56%
Home runs /BIP	7.98%	÷1.111	×0.700	—	×0.952	4.78%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 122, 1B 97, 2B 95, 3B 80, K 102, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 32 vs a level average of 27.2 → −4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.022.

Result: wOBA .307 → .225; ISO .186 → .111; BABIP .345 → .303. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAAJacksonville Jumbo Shrimp · 278 PAwOBA .346 → .290 (−56)K% 23.4% → 27.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	23.38%	÷1.040	×1.200	—	—	26.97%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	5.04%	÷1.008	×0.690	—	×0.972	3.35%
HBP% /PA	2.52%	—	×0.940	—	×0.972	2.30%
Singles /BIP	25.40%	÷1.016	×0.930	×1.033	×0.972	23.33%
Doubles /BIP	8.99%	÷0.955	×0.830	×1.033	×0.972	7.85%
Triples /BIP	1.06%	÷1.039	×0.970	×1.033	×0.972	0.99%
Home runs /BIP	3.70%	÷1.031	×0.700	—	×0.972	2.45%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 106, 1B 103, 2B 91, 3B 108, K 108, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 30 vs a level average of 27.2 → −2.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.033.

Result: wOBA .346 → .290; ISO .165 → .127; BABIP .362 → .324. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAAEl Paso Chihuahuas · 16 PAwOBA .426 → .261 (−166)K% 31.2% → 39.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	31.25%	÷0.959	×1.200	—	—	39.12%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	6.25%	÷0.990	×0.690	—	×0.982	4.28%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.940	—	×0.982	0.00%
Singles /BIP	10.00%	÷1.047	×0.930	—	×0.982	8.73%
Doubles /BIP	10.00%	÷1.133	×0.830	—	×0.982	7.19%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.002	×0.970	—	×0.982	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	20.00%	÷1.138	×0.700	—	×0.982	12.08%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 128, 1B 109, 2B 127, 3B 100, K 92, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 27.2 → −1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .426 → .261; ISO .467 → .262; BABIP .250 → .181. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAAJacksonville Jumbo Shrimp · 16 PAwOBA .360 → .296 (−64)K% 6.2% → 7.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	6.25%	÷0.985	×1.200	—	—	7.62%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	0.00%	÷0.994	×0.690	—	×0.992	0.00%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.940	—	×0.992	0.00%
Singles /BIP	13.33%	÷0.971	×0.930	—	×0.992	12.66%
Doubles /BIP	0.00%	÷0.933	×0.830	—	×0.992	0.00%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.109	×0.920	—	×0.992	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	13.33%	÷0.886	×0.700	—	×0.992	10.45%

Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 77, 1B 94, 2B 87, 3B 122, K 97, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .360 → .296; ISO .375 → .290; BABIP .154 → .141. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 AAALehigh Valley IronPigs · 350 PAwOBA .285 → .241 (−44)K% 32.3% → 40.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	32.29%	÷0.961	×1.200	—	—	40.30%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	4.29%	÷1.014	×0.690	—	×1.048	3.06%
HBP% /PA	2.29%	—	×0.940	—	×1.048	2.25%
Singles /BIP	26.54%	÷1.055	×0.930	×1.050	×1.048	25.74%
Doubles /BIP	6.16%	÷0.969	×0.830	×1.050	×1.048	5.81%
Triples /BIP	0.95%	÷1.047	×0.970	×1.050	×1.048	0.97%
Home runs /BIP	3.32%	÷1.043	×0.840	—	×1.048	2.80%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 109, 1B 111, 2B 94, 3B 109, K 92, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 27.2 → +4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.

Result: wOBA .285 → .241; ISO .117 → .095; BABIP .345 → .331. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2016 AAReading Fightin Phils · 435 PAwOBA .337 → .281 (−55)K% 24.1% → 31.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	24.14%	÷0.936	×1.220	—	—	31.46%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	5.06%	÷1.042	×0.700	—	×1.027	3.49%
HBP% /PA	0.92%	—	×0.850	—	×1.027	0.80%
Singles /BIP	25.75%	÷1.002	×0.970	×1.040	×1.027	26.65%
Doubles /BIP	7.02%	÷0.998	×0.860	×1.040	×1.027	6.46%
Triples /BIP	0.67%	÷1.150	×0.950	×1.040	×1.027	0.59%
Home runs /BIP	5.02%	÷1.273	×0.780	—	×1.027	3.16%

Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 155, 1B 100, 2B 100, 3B 130, K 87, BB 108 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.040.

Result: wOBA .337 → .281; ISO .173 → .118; BABIP .347 → .343. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Josh Bardlast yr '11 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,958 PA	2.9	1,958	38	1	252	318	381	+33	+24	10.4	10.4
/162	664	13	0	+11.1	+8.0	3.5	pk7: 11
#2Toby Halllast yr '08 career totals — 8 seasons, 2,501 PA	3.8	2,501	45	2	263	298	374	+32	+38	9.9	10.0
/162	664	12	1	+8.4	+10.1	2.6	pk7: 10
#3Stephen Vogtlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,571 PA	3.9	2,571	82	5	241	303	410	+36	-11	9.3	9.4
/162	664	21	1	+9.2	-2.8	2.4	pk7: 9
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 8 projected seasons	2.8	1,881	54	20	252	297	395	+29	+15	7.1	7.2
/162	664	19	7	+10.1	+5.3	2.5	pk7: 7
#4Brook Fordyce'95-'04 * career totals — 8 seasons, 1,973 PA	3.0	1,973	41	8	247*	298*	376*	+35	+0	5.0	5.4
/162	664	14	3	+11.7	+0.0	1.7	pk7: 6
#5Jake Gibbs'63-'71 * career totals — 7 seasons, 1,795 PA	2.7	1,795	25	28	244*	299*	362*	+32	+0	5.4	5.4
/162	664	9	10	+11.9	+0.0	2.0	pk7: 5
#6Jerry McNertney'64-'73 * career totals — 8 seasons, 1,605 PA	2.4	1,605	27	3	243*	301*	372*	+27	+0	4.6	4.5
/162	664	11	1	+11.2	+0.1	1.9	pk7: 4

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Jorge Alfaro (OGILVIE)	34	—	—	—	—	214/252/368	154	331	7	4	41%	3%	73	-0.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕John Hicks 2023 · MLB	33	40→50	53→55	49→50	35	216/253/385	169	288	21	13	33%	4%	76	-0.4	204/256/330	126	288	13	17	32%	6%	64	-1.3	155/214/229	73	228	6	27	33%	6%	25	-1.4
✕Carlos M. Rodriguez 2015 · AAA	33	40→42	49→50	46→40	40	208/270/352	144	289	18	4	34%	7%	75	-0.5	209/260/317	108	295	11	4	32%	6%	63	-1.4	208/254/310	102	292	10	1	31%	5%	57	-1.1
✕Adam Rosales 2018 · MLB	35	44→50	51→55	45	40	225/281/387	162	304	19	7	32%	6%	86	+0.3	198/248/332	134	258	16	5	29%	5%	61	-1.5	175/223/296	120	224	15	3	29%	5%	42	-1.8
✕Ryan Lavarnway 2022 · MLB	34	42→46	51→55	47→30	41	219/273/373	154	283	20	5	30%	6%	80	-0.1	212/281/344	132	276	15	5	28%	8%	77	-0.3	183/264/297	115	232	13	0	26%	8%	58	-0.9
✕Dustin Garneau 2022 · MLB	34	36→38	56→50	47→45	44	203/278/395	192	255	24	5	31%	8%	88	+0.5	196/273/342	146	258	17	7	30%	7%	74	-0.5	133/224/239	106	174	13	2	31%	7%	32	-1.2
✕Cory Aldridge 2013 · AAA	34	36→46	53→55	46→45	37	199/249/364	165	280	23	9	38%	6%	70	-0.8	222/283/380	158	311	22	6	34%	8%	86	+0.3	233/302/395	163	303	25	1	31%	8%	96	+0.5
✕Mark Little 2006 · MLB	34	42	51→55	52→55	40	219/289/380	161	284	19	19	30%	6%	89	+0.5	226/308/346	120	311	11	15	29%	7%	88	+0.5	221/318/307	86	323	4	13	29%	6%	80	-0.1
✕Miguel Olivo 2012 · MLB	34	45→50	54→60	45→50	38	236/272/409	172	291	23	8	28%	5%	88	+0.5	234/266/399	165	293	22	6	28%	4%	84	+0.1	230/263/370	140	302	17	9	29%	4%	74	-0.3
✕Drew Maggi 2022 · AAA	33	41→51	46→45	49→60	41	205/283/331	126	293	14	14	33%	7%	75	-0.5	184/251/269	85	261	7	20	31%	6%	49	-2.4	156/223/217	61	220	4	22	29%	6%	24	-1.4
✕Cody Ransom 2010 · MLB	34	39	51→55	49→50	45	208/273/373	166	259	19	11	28%	8%	81	-0.1	215/278/388	173	280	21	8	30%	7%	86	+0.3	206/286/402	196	277	25	6	34%	9%	92	+0.4
✕Pedro Florimón 2021 · MLB	34	43→53	45	46→55	41	210/274/333	123	314	13	6	36%	8%	72	-0.7	198/263/308	110	312	11	14	37%	8%	61	-1.5	166/236/259	94	266	9	16	38%	8%	38	-2.0
✕Mike Coolbaugh 2006 · AAA	34	41→39	52→55	53→50	41	218/266/379	160	262	21	10	26%	6%	79	-0.2	211/277/349	138	265	16	9	26%	7%	77	-0.3	171/258/278	106	213	13	4	26%	9%	52	-1.0
✕Austin Romine 2022 · MLB	33	49→54	46→50	46→45	38	243/280/368	125	324	14	5	29%	5%	81	-0.1	214/260/330	116	289	13	6	30%	5%	65	-1.2	173/207/252	78	235	10	0	31%	4%	26	-1.3
✕Sal Fasano 2007 · MLB	35	44	54→55	41→40	39	233/287/409	177	288	23	4	28%	5%	95	+1.0	210/269/343	133	276	15	5	29%	4%	72	-0.7	183/238/286	103	251	12	3	31%	3%	47	-0.8
✕Kyle Garlick 2024 · MLB	32	39→49	52→60	46→40	40	206/273/366	160	290	21	5	36%	7%	80	-0.2	190/256/324	134	269	16	4	34%	7%	63	-1.3	164/231/286	122	226	16	1	34%	7%	44	-2.9
✕Jantzen Witte 2024 · AAA	34	42→52	47→45	44→45	42	217/269/353	136	280	15	8	28%	6%	74	-0.5	214/273/354	140	279	16	8	28%	7%	76	-0.4	187/251/323	136	227	18	0	26%	8%	59	-0.5
✕Anthony Recker 2016 · MLB	32	37→47	52→50	45	42	200/266/362	162	268	21	5	33%	8%	76	-0.4	205/275/343	138	277	15	5	30%	8%	75	-0.5	193/262/327	134	259	15	2	30%	7%	64	-0.6
✕Brad Snyder 2016 · MLB	34	45→51	51→55	45→50	39	225/277/383	158	323	19	9	36%	7%	84	+0.2	229/288/394	165	307	21	7	31%	7%	91	+0.7	219/279/384	165	284	21	1	30%	8%	84	+0.0
✕Reggie Abercrombie 2013 · AAA	32	46→49	51→55	50→60	33	229/288/386	157	328	19	24	35%	4%	90	+0.6	229/281/386	157	323	19	20	34%	4%	86	+0.3	218/258/360	141	306	19	22	34%	3%	71	-0.3
✕Lorenzo Quintana 2021 · AAA	32	42	52→50	45	38	224/267/387	163	268	20	9	25%	4%	82	-0.0	228/275/367	139	283	15	5	25%	5%	80	-0.2	222/269/358	136	272	15	2	24%	4%	73	-0.3

Jorge Alfaro

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps