Jorge AlfaroC Northwest Arkansas Naturals
Age 33 R/R 6'1" / 243 lbs AA HR -6% Svc 10.000 · Ctrl thru 2026
2026 ROS PROJECTION142 act + 231 ros · stats below = ROS only
wRC+†71
AVG/OBP/SLG.220 / .258 / .376
PA231
HR8
K%42
BB%2
BABIP351
ISO156
MLB%2%
Value2026 · WAR
BAT: -15.6 runs (wOBA-derived runs vs avg)-16BATRUN: +0.2 runs (SB/CS + UBR baserunning)+0RUNFLD: -3.8 runs (Defensive runs vs avg)-4FLDPOS: +6.7 runs (Positional adjustment)+7POSREP: +10.6 runs (Replacement-level credit)+11REPTotal WAR: -0.20-0.2WAR
trajectory · projected WAR by year
0.70.0-0.32628
Tools · ContractCON 35 / POW 60
Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2022-2025
CONTACT35
Whiff%
1021.3%
xwOBA
320.288
POWER60
Barrel%
6310.1
Avg EV
4989.1
Bat Spd
9075.9
EYE20
Chase%
1050.1%
SPEED55
Sprint
6828.2
Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status   FA
MLB Debut   2016
Service   10.000 yrs.days
Team Control Through   2026
First FA Year   2027
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2026ROSExt / FA-deal$0.4M
Totals $0.4M $-0.0M -$0.4M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2026 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run below FG-DC by 1-3 WAR.

YearAge LvlTeam MLB% PAAB H2B3BHR BBSOHBP SBCS AVGOBPSLGOPS ISOBABIP K%BB% wOBAwRC+ BATRUNFLDPOSREP WAR
201017 ROKDSL Rangers 187175 28311 2699 14 160210206415 46255 371 183 -2
201017 ROKDSL Rangers 187172 38521 5489 14 221280291570 70298 263 262 59
201219 A2 teams 366342 641763 121519 75 187234298532 111319 413 235 38
201219 A2 teams 366337 902367 171009 75 267320433753 166356 275 331 111
201320 A3 teams 526477 9224114 2118823 206 193261335596 143279 364 255 53
201320 A3 teams 526463 13230218 3513423 206 285365475840 190361 257 370 141
201421 A+2 teams 536496 10520413 1918617 65 212265347612 135306 354 265 61
201421 A+2 teams 536486 12726517 2912317 65 261325440766 179314 235 338 117
201522 AA2 teams 251233 471426 8898 22 202253356609 155297 353 260 57
201522 AA2 teams 251232 591626 9778 22 254305418723 164356 314 319 102
201623 AA3 teams 564532 11821210 192048 63 222259325585 103335 363 246 47
201623 AA3 teams 564525 13926318 261488 63 265309429738 164333 265 324 106
201724 AAA2 teams 464437 9416210 1318012 11 215258330587 114337 393 255 53
201724 AAA2 teams 464431 11219212 1914612 11 260310397706 137364 314 315 99
201825 MLBPhiladelphia Phillies 377344 8916210 1813814 30 259322404726 145401 375 308 94 -2 +1 +18 +7 +11 3.4
201825 MLBPhiladelphia Phillies 377344 9016210 1813814 30 262324407731 145406 375 328 109 +4 +1 +18 +7 +11 4.0
201926 MLBMiami Marlins 465431 11715119 2215410 44 271322443765 172377 335 333 113 +7 -1 +3 +8 +13 3.1
201926 MLBMiami Marlins 465431 11314118 2215410 44 262313425738 162364 335 327 109 +4 -1 +3 +8 +13 2.9
202027 MLBMiami Marlins 10093 21203 4363 20 226280344624 118333 364 282 74 -3 +0 -2 +2 +3 -0.0
202027 MLBMiami Marlins 10093 21203 4363 20 226280344624 118333 364 283 75 -3 +0 -2 +2 +3 -0.0
202128 MLB2 teams 327311 791616 111005 81 254291370660 116356 313 292 82 -7 +1 +3 +6 +9 1.3
202128 MLB2 teams 327311 761516 111005 81 244281357638 113341 313 286 77 -8 +1 +3 +6 +9 1.1
202229 MLB3 teams 312291 731709 131134 10 251292402694 151370 364 299 87 -5 +0 -1 +6 +9 1.0
202229 MLB3 teams 312292 731709 121094 10 250289401690 151360 354 303 90 -4 +0 -1 +6 +9 1.1
202330 AAA3 teams 402372 912428 1410612 50 245294384678 140317 263 293 83
202330 AAA3 teams 402366 922428 2010112 50 251312393705 142322 255 313 98
202431 INTLTigres del Licey 3633 10201 271 00 303361455816 152360 196
202431 INTLTigres del Licey 3633 10201 271 00 303361455816 152360 196 364 137
202532 AAA2 teams 365350 721019 71547 130 206236317553 111335 422 245 46
202532 AAA2 teams 365346 8512115 111337 130 246283416699 171352 363 309 94
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD33 AAKC 142130 21317 3836 01 162216362577 200326 582 251 50 -8 -0 +0 +3 +4 -0.2
YTD33 AAKC 142127 284110 6646 01 220288504792 283321 454 337 116 +3 -0 +0 +3 +4 0.9
ROS33 AAKC 2% 231218 48818 5976 41 220258376634 156345 422 278 71 -8 +0 -4 +4 +7 -0.0
ROS33 MLBKC 2% 55 1000 020 00 200200200400 340 400 254 53 -0 +0 -0 +0 +0 -0.0
FULL33 AAKC 147135 22317 3856 01 163215356571 193326 582 251 50 -8 -0 -0 +3 +4 -0.2
TOT33 AAKC 373348 6911215 818012 42 198242371613 172344 482 268 63 -16 +0 -4 +7 +11 -0.2
▸ 2027+ Projections   WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ
202734 MLBKC 100% 289273 589110 71237 41 212251363614 150337 432 269 64 -12 +0 -10 +5 +8 -0.8
202835 MLBKC 100% 235223 45708 51025 21 202236341577 139328 432 258 55 -12 +0 -9 +4 +7 -1.1
202734 MLBKC 100% 289273 589110 71237 41 212251363614 150332 432 247 47 -17 +0 -10 +5 +8 -1.3
202835 MLBKC 100% 235223 44707 51025 21 197232323555 126323 432 237 39 -16 +0 -9 +4 +7 -1.5
▸ Career Totals
Career 22782130 51589565 8482254 257 242288380668 138360 364 294 83 -44 +2 -2 +70 +65 9.2
/ 162G 650608 14725119 2423515 72 242287380667 138360 364 294 83 -12 +1 -1 +20 +18 2.6
Career 60335631 125124127148 2022197160 8934 222269353623 131332 363 268 63 -250 +4 -6 +108 +171 2.7
/ 162G 650607 13526316 2223717 104 222270354624 132332 363 268 63 -27 +0 -1 +12 +18 0.3

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

YearAge LvlTeam MLB% PAAB H2B3BHR BBSOHBP SBCS AVGOBPSLGOPS ISOBABIP K%BB% wOBAwRC+ BATRUNFLDPOSREP WAR
201017 ROKDSL Rangers 187172 38521 5489 14 221280291570 70298 263 262 59 -9 -1 +5 -0.5
201219 AHickory Crawdads 300272 712155 16849 73 261323430753 169355 285 331 112 +4 +0 +8 1.3
201219 INTLLeones de Ponce 6665 19212 1160 02 292303446749 154362 242 329 110 +1 -1 +2 0.2
201320 AHickory Crawdads 420372 9622116 2811118 163 258340452791 194324 267 351 127 +13 +2 +12 2.7
201320 ROKAZL Rangers 2621 9202 262 20 4295208101.330 381500 238 543 274 +5 +0 +1 0.6
201320 INTLSurprise Saguaros 8070 27610 5173 23 386449500949 114491 216 414 175 +7 -1 +2 0.8
201421 AAFrisco RoughRiders 9988 23404 6235 00 261343443787 182311 236 352 128 +3 +0 +3 0.6
201421 A+Myrtle Beach Pelicans 437398 10422513 2310012 65 261321440761 178315 235 334 114 +7 -1 +12 1.9
201522 AAFrisco RoughRiders 207190 481525 9618 21 253314432746 179347 294 331 112 +3 +0 +6 0.9
201522 INTLTiburones de La Guaira 4442 11101 0160 01 262262357619 95400 360 262 58 -2 -0 +1 -0.1
201623 MLBPhiladelphia Phillies 1716 2000 180 00 125176125301 250 476 148 -29 -2 +0 +0 +10 +0 0.8
201623 AAReading Fightin Phils 435404 11521215 221054 32 285328458786 173347 245 343 121 +10 -0 +12 2.3
201623 INTLTiburones de La Guaira 112105 22513 3354 31 210259362621 152284 313 277 71 -4 +0 +3 -0.0
201724 MLBPhiladelphia Phillies 114107 34605 3334 00 318360514874 196420 293 386 153 +7 +0 -2 +8 +3 1.6
201724 AAALehigh Valley IronPigs 350324 781327 161138 11 241293358651 117345 325 292 82 -7 -0 +10 0.3
201825 MLBPhiladelphia Phillies 377344 9016210 1813814 30 262324407731 145406 375 328 109 +4 +1 +18 +7 +11 4.0
201926 MLBMiami Marlins 465431 11314118 2215410 44 262313425738 162364 335 327 109 +4 -1 +3 +8 +13 2.9
202027 MLBMiami Marlins 10093 21203 4363 20 226280344624 118333 364 283 75 -3 +0 -2 +2 +3 -0.0
202128 MLBMiami Marlins 311295 721514 11995 81 244283342625 98354 324 282 74 -9 +1 +3 +6 +9 1.0
202128 AAAJacksonville Jumbo Shrimp 1616 4002 010 00 250250625875 375154 60 373 144 +1 +0 +0 0.1
202229 MLBSan Diego Padres 274256 631407 11984 10 246288383671 137364 364 296 85 -5 +0 -1 +6 +8 0.8
202229 AAAEl Paso Chihuahuas 1615 4102 150 00 2673127331.046 467250 316 441 195 +2 +0 +0 0.2
202229 INTLTigres del Licey 2221 6200 060 00 286286381667 95375 270 281 73 -1 +0 +1 -0.0
202330 MLBBoston Red Sox 5248 7401 2152 00 146212292503 146188 294 229 33 -4 +0 -0 +7 +1 0.5
202330 AAAJacksonville Jumbo Shrimp 278254 741727 14657 50 291345457802 165362 235 352 128 +9 +1 +8 1.8
202330 INTLTigres del Licey 7264 11300 4213 00 172254219472 47250 296 223 29 -6 +0 +2 -0.4
202431 INTLTigres del Licey 3633 10201 271 00 303361455816 152360 196 364 137 +2 +0 +1 0.3
202532 MLBWashington Nationals 3939 10200 0140 10 256256308564 51400 360 251 51 -2 +0 -2 +7 +1 0.4
202532 AAANashville Sounds 326307 7510115 111197 120 244286430716 186345 373 315 100 -0 +2 +9 1.2
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career 17491629 41273448 7259542 195 253302391693 138367 344 309 95 -10 +2 +17 +60 +50 12.1

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 gamesYRSPAHRSBAVGOBPSLGPOSFLDWARJAWS
#1Dioner Navarrolast yr '16
career totals — 12 seasons, 3,544 PA
123,5447714250308370+63-112.111.6
/162664143+11.9-0.22.3pk7: 11
#2Josh Bardlast yr '11
career totals — 9 seasons, 1,958 PA
91,958381252318381+33+2410.410.5
/162664130+11.1+8.03.5pk7: 11
#3Stephen Vogtlast yr '22
career totals — 9 seasons, 2,571 PA
92,571825241303410+36-119.39.4
/162664211+9.2-2.82.4pk7: 9
#4Gordon Beckhamlast yr '19
career totals — 10 seasons, 3,764 PA
103,7648034237301368+13+198.28.4
/162664146+2.4+3.41.4pk7: 9
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION
career totals — every cell rolls up across 9 projected seasons
92,2246624245289388+31+176.97.1
/162664207+9.4+5.02.1pk7: 7
#5Angel Berroalast yr '09
career totals — 8 seasons, 2,794 PA
82,7944650259303375+27-66.87.1
/1626641112+6.5-1.41.6pk7: 7
#6Ronny Cedenolast yr '13
career totals — 9 seasons, 2,783 PA
92,7834039246289354+28+195.55.6
/162664109+6.7+4.51.3pk7: 6

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

Scouting At Match Age Next 3 Yrs Peak 3 Yrs
Comp Age HIT PWR SPD EYE AVG/OBP/SLG ISOBABIP HRSB K%BB% wRC+WAR AVG/OBP/SLG ISOBABIP HRSB K%BB% wRC+WAR AVG/OBP/SLG ISOBABIP HRSB K%BB% wRC+WAR
Jorge Alfaro (OGILVIE) 33 35 60 55 20 198/242/371 172344 154 48% 2% 63 -0.2
Carlos M. Rodriguez
2015 · AAA
33 40→42 50→55 46→40 38 207/270/354 148299 194 36% 7% 72 -0.2 208/261/317 109306 124 34% 6% 58 -1.2 209/258/31510630511134%5%54-0.9
Reggie Abercrombie
2013 · AAA
32 47→48 53→55 49→60 31 233/290/401 169337 2224 36% 3% 93 +1.3 237/286/419 182334 2420 35% 4% 96 +1.5 233/273/419186321272235%3%89+0.4
Seth Bynum
2012 · AAA
31 41→44 49→55 51→50 38 213/259/357 144287 1813 32% 5% 68 -0.5 205/257/329 124302 1410 35% 6% 59 -1.1 179/234/28710827212637%6%35-1.9
Kristopher Negrón
2019 · MLB
33 44→51 45 54→55 38 217/273/340 123308 1316 33% 6% 69 -0.4 231/291/357 126336 1414 33% 7% 82 +0.5 239/303/358120349141433%7%82+0.4
Jason Smith
2008 · MLB
31 43→35 51→55 49→50 36 224/265/384 160302 199 32% 5% 77 +0.1 192/226/324 132277 169 36% 4% 45 -2.1 170/200/28911924514937%3%22-2.4
Drew Maggi
2022 · AAA
33 42→52 47→45 49→60 41 209/286/343 134300 1514 34% 7% 76 +0.1 186/253/283 97263 920 31% 6% 46 -2.0 161/228/2407922272229%6%23-1.2
John Hicks
2023 · MLB
33 44→50 57→60 49→50 35 235/271/435 200308 2613 33% 4% 94 +1.3 211/261/349 138294 1517 32% 6% 66 -0.6 160/223/2397923472733%7%21-1.3
Mark Little
2006 · MLB
34 44 52→55 52→55 40 226/297/394 168295 2019 30% 6% 95 +1.4 232/315/356 124320 1115 29% 7% 92 +1.2 233/334/3249134341329%7%89+0.5
Dustin Garneau
2021 · MLB
33 41→37 48→50 45 46 208/290/355 147272 165 29% 8% 81 +0.4 196/274/370 174253 226 31% 7% 79 +0.3 152/237/32917618024132%7%52-0.5
Cody Ransom
2009 · MLB
33 39→42 54→55 48→50 44 213/277/392 179263 2311 29% 7% 85 +0.7 220/281/396 176280 2110 29% 7% 88 +0.9 216/283/39918329024733%8%87+0.6
Dusty Coleman
2018 · MLB
31 38→42 48→50 51→50 35 194/248/337 142295 1514 38% 6% 58 -1.2 170/225/296 126336 1412 51% 6% 38 -2.6 106/161/20397243121159%5%-16-3.5
Brandon Barnes
2019 · MLB
33 46→53 44→55 50 38 223/275/343 119317 1116 32% 5% 70 -0.3 223/271/397 174300 2313 33% 5% 84 +0.6 204/249/406202256301134%4%75-0.0
Jed Hansen
2006 · AAA
33 41→40 45 51→50 39 203/265/328 124281 1214 31% 6% 63 -0.8 211/268/328 117268 1213 25% 6% 64 -0.8 199/258/303104244111223%6%50-1.2
Austin Romine
2022 · MLB
33 49→53 46→45 46→45 38 244/280/368 125325 145 29% 5% 79 +0.3 214/260/332 118289 146 30% 5% 62 -0.9 174/208/2558123511031%4%16-1.3
Mike Coolbaugh
2006 · AAA
34 43→41 53→55 53→50 42 228/277/396 168275 2210 26% 6% 86 +0.8 218/284/360 142274 179 26% 7% 79 +0.3 182/274/29511322714426%10%56-0.6
David Matranga
2009 · AAA
32 42 46→45 49→50 42 213/278/339 126281 1410 29% 6% 72 -0.2 223/303/350 127303 139 28% 9% 85 +0.7 209/311/32411528711528%10%82+0.2
Joe Hudson
2023 · MLB
32 36 50→45 48→40 42 196/258/342 146266 206 34% 8% 64 -0.8 200/290/341 141308 189 38% 10% 78 +0.2 186/300/317131286171037%12%74-0.0
Charlie Culberson
2022 · MLB
33 48→49 47→45 53→50 44 240/293/382 142299 1413 24% 6% 89 +0.9 229/274/343 114308 1112 28% 6% 70 -0.3 214/242/2867330471231%4%40-0.5
Lorenzo Quintana
2021 · AAA
32 44 53→55 45 37 231/274/405 174281 229 27% 4% 87 +0.8 244/292/407 163302 195 25% 5% 95 +1.4 244/292/41116829720225%5%93+0.6
Jake Marisnick
2023 · MLB
32 45→52 47→60 53→55 38 224/281/361 137313 1417 32% 5% 78 +0.2 216/287/369 153299 1618 32% 7% 83 +0.6 207/287/375168285182032%8%82+0.2