Travis Sykora

P Wilmington Blue Rocks

Age 23 RHP 6'6" / 232 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 0.9 · 2028

Overview

A+PROSPECTMiLBFA 2034

OGV OFP50OGV rank#32ETA2028MLB%4%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	20	AWSH	20	20	85	2.33	1.32	39.2%	8.2%	—	K 29.0% · BB 9.7% · FIP 2.28
2025	21	MIX4 levels	12	12	45	1.79	0.74	46.7%	10.1%	—	K 34.1% · BB 8.7% · FIP 1.32
2026	22	No MLB games played
2027PROJ	23	MLBWSH	1	1	4	3.46	3.46	31.7%	8.8%	0.1
2028PROJ45% MLB	24	MLBWSH	9	9	51	3.47	3.43	31.4%	8.4%	1.2
2029PROJ68% MLB	25	MLBWSH	14	14	84	3.47	3.43	31.0%	8.2%	2.0

Next 3 projected WAR 3.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2033Service0.0First FA2034

2027MiLB2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Ext$0.8M2030Ext$0.8M2031Ext$6M2032Ext$10M2033Ext$12M

CompsKyle Brnovich (age 23) · Danny Salazar (age 23) · Nick Frasso (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 9991vR 83

ERA3.46

FIP3.46

K%31.7%

BB%8.8%

K-BB%22.9%

Proj IP95

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 95 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$10M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.2	$9M	+$8M
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.8M		$9M	+$8M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2024	20	A MLE	Fredericksburg Nationals	20	20	85	329	129	27	2	100%	4.2	29.0%	9.7%	19.3%	0.7%	2.33	2.28	—
2024	20	A MLE	Fredericksburg Nationals	20	20	85	329	129	27	2	100%	4.2	29.0%	9.7%	19.3%	0.7%	2.33	2.28	—
2024	20	A RAW	Fredericksburg Nationals	20	20	85	329	129	27	2	100%	4.2	39.2%	8.2%	31.0%	0.6%	2.33	1.32	—
2025	21	MIX MLE	4 levels	12	12	45	169	79	17	0	100%	3.8	34.1%	8.7%	25.5%	0.0%	1.79	1.32	—
2025	21	MIX MLE	4 levels	12	12	45	169	79	17	0	100%	3.8	34.1%	8.7%	25.5%	0.0%	1.79	1.32	—
2025	21	MIX RAW	4 levels	12	12	45	169	79	17	0	100%	3.8	46.7%	10.1%	36.7%	0.0%	1.79	0.74	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	23	MLB	WSH	1	1	4	17	5	1	0	100%	4.0	31.7%	8.8%	22.9%	2.8%	3.46	3.46	+0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	24	MLB MLE	WSH	20	20	114	479	150	40	13	100%	5.7	31.4%	8.4%	23.0%	2.8%	3.47	3.43	+2.7
2029	25	MLB MLE	WSH	21	21	124	525	163	43	15	100%	5.9	31.0%	8.2%	22.9%	2.8%	3.47	3.43	+3.0
2030	26	MLB MLE	WSH	22	22	132	559	172	45	16	100%	6.0	30.8%	8.1%	22.7%	2.8%	3.47	3.44	+3.1
2031	27	MLB MLE	WSH	22	22	130	549	168	45	16	100%	5.9	30.6%	8.2%	22.4%	2.9%	3.50	3.50	+3.0
2032	28	MLB MLE	WSH	21	21	126	531	162	44	16	100%	6.0	30.4%	8.3%	22.1%	3.0%	3.55	3.59	+2.7
2033	29	MLB MLE	WSH	20	20	119	503	152	43	16	100%	6.0	30.2%	8.5%	21.7%	3.1%	3.65	3.72	+2.4
2034	30	MLB MLE	WSH	18	18	110	466	139	41	15	100%	6.1	29.9%	8.8%	21.0%	3.3%	3.80	3.89	+2.0
2035	31	MLB MLE	WSH	17	17	100	422	124	39	15	100%	5.9	29.5%	9.2%	20.3%	3.5%	3.98	4.10	+1.5
2036	32	MLB MLE	WSH	15	15	89	374	109	36	14	100%	5.9	29.0%	9.6%	19.4%	3.8%	4.19	4.32	+1.1
2037	33	MLB MLE	WSH	13	13	77	323	92	32	13	100%	5.9	28.5%	10.0%	18.5%	4.1%	4.42	4.57	+0.7
2038	34	MLB MLE	WSH	11	11	65	273	76	29	12	100%	5.9	28.0%	10.5%	17.4%	4.4%	4.68	4.85	+0.4
2028	24	MLB CTX	WSH	9	9	51	215	68	18	6	100%	5.7	31.4%	8.4%	23.0%	2.8%	3.47	3.43	+1.2
2029	25	MLB CTX	WSH	14	14	84	355	110	29	10	100%	6.0	31.0%	8.2%	22.9%	2.8%	3.47	3.43	+2.0
2030	26	MLB CTX	WSH	18	18	106	448	138	36	13	100%	5.9	30.8%	8.1%	22.7%	2.8%	3.47	3.44	+2.5
2031	27	MLB CTX	WSH	18	18	111	469	143	38	13	100%	6.2	30.6%	8.2%	22.4%	2.9%	3.50	3.50	+2.6
2032	28	MLB CTX	WSH	19	19	112	473	144	39	14	100%	5.9	30.4%	8.3%	22.1%	3.0%	3.55	3.59	+2.4
2033	29	MLB CTX	WSH	18	18	109	460	139	39	14	100%	6.1	30.2%	8.5%	21.7%	3.1%	3.65	3.72	+2.2
2034	30	MLB CTX	WSH	17	17	102	431	129	38	14	100%	6.0	29.9%	8.8%	21.0%	3.3%	3.80	3.89	+1.8
2035	31	MLB CTX	WSH	16	16	93	393	116	36	14	100%	5.8	29.5%	9.2%	20.3%	3.5%	3.98	4.10	+1.4
2036	32	MLB CTX	WSH	14	14	83	350	102	34	13	100%	5.9	29.0%	9.6%	19.4%	3.8%	4.19	4.32	+1.1
2037	33	MLB CTX	WSH	12	12	73	308	88	31	13	100%	6.1	28.5%	10.0%	18.5%	4.1%	4.42	4.57	+0.7
2038	34	MLB CTX	WSH	10	10	59	249	70	26	11	100%	5.9	28.0%	10.5%	17.4%	4.4%	4.68	4.85	+0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		165	165	983	4150	1245	365	135	100%	6.0	30.0%	8.8%	21.2%	3.3%	3.79	3.46	+23.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	253	74	27	100%	6.0	30.0%	8.8%	21.2%	3.3%	3.79	3.46	+4.7
Career	—	MLE		32	32	130	498	153	47	2	100%	4.1	30.8%	9.3%	21.4%	0.5%	2.14	1.95	+22.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		49	49	200	764	235	71	4	100%	4.1	30.8%	9.3%	21.4%	0.5%	2.14	1.95	+3.8

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2025 A+Wilmington Blue Rocks · 30 IPFIP 0.31 → 1.32 (+1.00)K% 44.3% → 34.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	44.34%	—	×0.770	34.14%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.55%	—	×1.150	8.68%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.967	×1.250	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 93).

Result: FIP 0.31 → 1.32, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAHarrisburg Senators · 5 IPFIP 3.10 → 3.98 (+0.88)K% 36.0% → 29.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	36.00%	—	×0.810	29.16%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	24.00%	—	×1.100	26.40%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.963	×1.200	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 93).

Result: FIP 3.10 → 3.98, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AFredericksburg Nationals · 6 IPFIP 0.69 → 1.85 (+1.16)K% 42.9% → 31.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	42.86%	—	×0.740	31.71%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.52%	—	×1.180	11.24%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.040	×1.300	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 108).

Result: FIP 0.69 → 1.85, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AFredericksburg Nationals · 85 IPFIP 1.16 → 2.28 (+1.12)K% 39.2% → 29.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	39.21%	—	×0.740	29.02%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.21%	—	×1.180	9.68%
HR / BF /BF	0.61%	÷1.078	×1.300	0.73%

Result: FIP 1.16 → 2.28, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Travis Sykora (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	2.8%	—	3.43	31.0%	22.9%	370	-0.03	—	—	—
Kyle Brnovich R 2021 · 3.95 FIP	23	SP	3.95	25.1%	7.5%	3.7%	.256	5.54	20.7%	11.0%	89	+1.59	3.95	338	76
Danny Salazar R 2013 · 3.22 FIP	23	SP	3.22	30.8%	7.1%	3.3%	.298	3.46	26.2%	18.4%	432	+0.24	3.22	587	75
Nick Frasso R 2022 · 2.60 FIP	23	SP	2.60	27.2%	9.2%	1.1%	.265	3.80	19.6%	10.2%	170	+1.20	2.60	276	74
Kumar Rocker R 2023 · 2.86 FIP	23	SP	2.86	29.1%	7.3%	2.4%	.317	3.88	21.9%	13.4%	260	+1.02	1.93	288	74
Tink Hence R 2024 · 2.64 FIP	21	SP	2.64	27.6%	8.9%	1.4%	.300	6.15	17.4%	1.0%	20	+3.51	2.07	248	73
Gavin Williams R 2022 · 3.44 FIP	23	SP	3.44	26.2%	9.9%	2.4%	.238	3.87	25.1%	14.3%	398	+0.43	3.39	697	73
Yoshinobu Yamamoto R 2024 · 2.45 FIP	25	SP	2.45	28.5%	6.0%	1.8%	.303	2.98	27.5%	20.3%	359	+0.53	2.45	449	73
Griffin Canning R 2019 · 3.60 FIP	23	SP	3.60	25.0%	7.2%	3.1%	.277	4.71	22.9%	13.0%	119	+1.11	3.60	809	73
José De León R 2016 · 3.64 FIP	23	SP	3.64	26.7%	6.4%	3.6%	.258	3.33	26.9%	13.5%	78	-0.31	3.24	445	72
Jaden Hamm R 2024 · 3.79 FIP	21	SP	3.79	23.5%	8.9%	2.8%	.273	4.79	17.1%	7.3%	83	+1.00	3.79	182	72
Reese Olson R 2022 · 3.98 FIP	23	SP	3.98	26.8%	8.2%	3.8%	.328	3.53	22.9%	14.9%	321	-0.45	3.03	640	72
Mason Black R 2023 · 4.23 FIP	23	SP	4.23	25.2%	10.0%	3.6%	.284	5.09	18.0%	8.3%	333	+0.86	3.95	569	72
German Nunez R 2024 · 3.00 FIP	22	SP	3.00	24.8%	6.8%	2.1%	.298	3.36	22.1%	11.2%	19	+0.36	2.27	151	71
Sam Benschoter R 2022 · 3.71 FIP	24	SP-	3.71	26.3%	9.2%	3.0%	.344	4.96	18.7%	8.6%	306	+1.25	3.61	441	71
Davis Daniel R 2021 · 3.93 FIP	24	SP	3.93	25.8%	7.7%	3.7%	.313	4.15	19.3%	12.4%	283	+0.22	3.04	593	71
Shohei Ohtani R 2018 · 3.43 FIP	24	SP	3.43	29.9%	10.4%	2.8%	.267	3.14	29.3%	21.4%	130	-0.29	1.76	613	71
Chase Hampton R 2023 · 4.04 FIP	21	SP	4.04	26.1%	9.5%	3.5%	.296	7.55	16.7%	-0.5%	36	+3.51	4.04	142	70
Tanner Bibee R 2022 · 3.13 FIP	23	SP	3.13	25.5%	5.9%	2.6%	.287	3.58	23.9%	16.9%	513	+0.45	3.13	834	70
Carson Ragsdale R 2021 · 4.21 FIP	23	SP	4.21	25.0%	10.7%	3.4%	.349	4.27	25.0%	14.6%	148	+0.06	2.00	352	70
David Festa R 2023 · 3.68 FIP	23	SP	3.68	24.5%	11.2%	2.2%	.341	3.71	27.2%	19.1%	209	+0.03	3.67	405	70

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 2,161 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 910 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	6.4	107	30.2%	8.7%	1.23	3.73
John Hiller ('65-'80, 25 WAR*)	6.2	96	28.7%*	10.1%*	1.16*	3.19*
Rich Hill ('25)	7.1	101	23.9%	9.2%	1.12	4.02
Kenta Maeda ('25)	4.9	123	25.8%	7.0%	1.30	4.20
Pete Richert ('62-'74, 13 WAR*)	5.8	90	24.4%*	8.8%*	1.26*	4.04*
Danny Salazar ('19)	3.0	118	27.7%	8.6%	1.14	3.82
Joe Hesketh ('84-'94, 10 WAR*)	4.8	87	23.2%*	8.8%*	1.07*	3.95*