Travis Sykora — OGILVIE

Travis Sykora P Wilmington Blue Rocks

Age 22 RHP 6'6" / 232 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 2.1 · 2032

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 7 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 9688vR 80

ERA3.31

FIP3.31

K%32.3%

BB%9.0%

K-BB%23.3%

ROS IP7

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 7 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$100M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—50

STUF5560

CTRL4550

CMD4555

K†7070

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+2.3	$16M	+$15M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+2.9	$20M	+$20M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+3.1	$21M	+$20M
2031	Arb-1	$9M	+3.1	$20M	+$14M
2032	Arb-2	$15M	+2.9	$16M	+$8M
2033	Arb-3	$19M	+2.6	$13M	+$3M
Totals		$46M		$105M	+$81M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2024	20	A MLE	Fredericksburg Nationals	20	20	85	329	129	27	2	100%	4.2	29.0%	9.7%	19.3%	0.7%	2.33	2.28	—
2024	20	A MLE	Fredericksburg Nationals	20	20	85	329	129	27	2	100%	4.2	29.0%	9.7%	19.3%	0.7%	2.33	2.28	—
2024	20	A RAW	Fredericksburg Nationals	20	20	85	329	129	27	2	100%	4.2	39.2%	8.2%	31.0%	0.6%	2.33	1.32	—
2025	21	MIX MLE	4 levels	12	12	45	169	79	17	0	100%	3.8	34.1%	8.7%	25.5%	0.0%	1.79	1.32	—
2025	21	MIX MLE	4 levels	12	12	45	169	79	17	0	100%	3.8	34.1%	8.7%	25.5%	0.0%	1.79	1.32	—
2025	21	MIX RAW	4 levels	12	12	45	169	79	17	0	100%	3.8	46.7%	10.1%	36.7%	0.0%	1.79	0.74	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	22	MLB	WSH	1	1	7	30	10	3	1	100%	7.0	32.3%	9.0%	23.3%	2.6%	3.31	3.31	+0.1
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	23	MLB MLE	WSH	25	25	133	560	179	47	14	100%	5.3	32.0%	8.4%	23.7%	2.6%	3.32	3.26	+2.7
2028	24	MLB MLE	WSH	29	29	162	684	218	55	18	100%	5.6	31.9%	8.1%	23.8%	2.6%	3.29	3.23	+3.3
2029	25	MLB MLE	WSH	30	30	175	739	235	58	19	100%	5.8	31.8%	7.9%	23.9%	2.6%	3.27	3.22	+3.6
2030	26	MLB MLE	WSH	29	29	175	739	235	58	19	100%	6.0	31.7%	7.9%	23.9%	2.6%	3.25	3.23	+3.6
2031	27	MLB MLE	WSH	29	29	172	728	231	58	19	100%	5.9	31.7%	7.9%	23.8%	2.7%	3.26	3.26	+3.5
2032	28	MLB MLE	WSH	28	28	167	706	223	57	19	100%	6.0	31.6%	8.1%	23.5%	2.8%	3.31	3.35	+3.2
2033	29	MLB MLE	WSH	27	27	160	674	212	56	20	100%	5.9	31.4%	8.3%	23.0%	2.9%	3.41	3.48	+2.7
2034	30	MLB MLE	WSH	25	25	150	634	197	55	20	100%	6.0	31.0%	8.6%	22.4%	3.1%	3.56	3.66	+2.2
2035	31	MLB MLE	WSH	23	23	140	591	181	53	20	100%	6.1	30.6%	9.0%	21.7%	3.3%	3.74	3.86	+1.7
2036	32	MLB MLE	WSH	22	22	130	547	165	51	20	100%	5.9	30.2%	9.4%	20.8%	3.6%	3.95	4.08	+1.3
2037	33	MLB MLE	WSH	20	20	119	502	149	49	19	100%	5.9	29.7%	9.8%	19.9%	3.9%	4.18	4.33	+0.8
2038	34	MLB MLE	WSH	18	18	108	456	133	47	19	100%	6.0	29.1%	10.3%	18.8%	4.2%	4.44	4.61	+0.4
2039	35	MLB MLE	WSH	16	16	97	410	117	45	18	100%	6.1	28.5%	10.9%	17.6%	4.5%	4.72	4.91	-0.0
2027	23	MLB CTX	WSH	12	12	66	279	89	23	7	100%	5.5	32.0%	8.4%	23.7%	2.6%	3.32	3.26	+1.3
2028	24	MLB CTX	WSH	20	20	113	477	152	38	12	100%	5.7	31.9%	8.1%	23.8%	2.6%	3.29	3.23	+2.3
2029	25	MLB CTX	WSH	24	24	142	600	190	47	16	100%	5.9	31.8%	7.9%	23.9%	2.6%	3.27	3.22	+2.9
2030	26	MLB CTX	WSH	26	26	153	646	205	51	17	100%	5.9	31.7%	7.9%	23.9%	2.6%	3.25	3.23	+3.1
2031	27	MLB CTX	WSH	26	26	156	659	209	52	17	100%	6.0	31.7%	7.9%	23.8%	2.7%	3.26	3.26	+3.1
2032	28	MLB CTX	WSH	26	26	154	650	206	53	18	100%	5.9	31.6%	8.1%	23.5%	2.8%	3.31	3.35	+2.9
2033	29	MLB CTX	WSH	25	25	149	629	197	52	18	100%	6.0	31.4%	8.3%	23.0%	2.9%	3.41	3.48	+2.6
2034	30	MLB CTX	WSH	24	24	141	595	185	51	18	100%	5.9	31.0%	8.6%	22.4%	3.1%	3.56	3.66	+2.1
2035	31	MLB CTX	WSH	22	22	133	562	172	50	19	100%	6.0	30.6%	9.0%	21.7%	3.3%	3.74	3.86	+1.7
2036	32	MLB CTX	WSH	20	20	123	519	157	49	19	100%	6.2	30.2%	9.4%	20.8%	3.6%	3.95	4.08	+1.2
2037	33	MLB CTX	WSH	19	19	113	477	142	47	18	100%	5.9	29.7%	9.8%	19.9%	3.9%	4.18	4.33	+0.8
2038	34	MLB CTX	WSH	16	16	98	414	120	43	17	100%	6.1	29.1%	10.3%	18.8%	4.2%	4.44	4.61	+0.3
2039	35	MLB CTX	WSH	14	14	83	350	100	38	16	100%	5.9	28.5%	10.9%	17.6%	4.5%	4.72	4.91	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		274	274	1623	6852	2122	595	212	100%	5.9	31.0%	8.7%	22.3%	3.1%	3.61	3.29	+32.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	262	73	26	100%	5.9	31.0%	8.7%	22.3%	3.1%	3.61	3.29	+4.0
Career	—	MLE		32	32	130	498	153	47	2	100%	4.1	30.8%	9.3%	21.4%	0.5%	2.14	1.95	+28.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		49	49	200	764	235	71	4	100%	4.1	30.8%	9.3%	21.4%	0.5%	2.14	1.95	+3.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Travis Sykora (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.31	32.3%	9.0%	2.6%	—	3.23	31.9%	23.8%	470	-0.08	—	—	—
Spencer Strider R 2021 · 3.37 FIP	22	SP	3.37	30.7%	11.6%	2.5%	.298	2.16	37.4%	29.6%	318	-1.21	1.65	589	83
Gavin Stone R 2021 · 3.15 FIP	22	SP	3.15	27.3%	7.8%	2.5%	.385	3.61	22.7%	14.3%	394	+0.46	2.39	485	80
Cade Horton R 2023 · 3.22 FIP	21	SP	3.22	26.0%	8.8%	2.2%	.273	3.60	21.6%	13.8%	181	+0.38	3.22	270	78
José De León R 2015 · 3.50 FIP	22	SP	3.50	27.9%	8.6%	3.0%	.295	3.62	25.9%	17.9%	130	+0.12	3.24	445	78
Andrew Painter R 2022 · 2.38 FIP	19	SP	2.38	29.6%	7.3%	1.6%	.287	4.98	19.4%	10.7%	107	+2.60	2.38	344	77
Cole Henry R 2021 · 2.96 FIP	22	SP	2.96	29.8%	7.8%	2.5%	.233	4.99	21.8%	7.7%	56	+2.03	2.96	186	75
Nick Frasso R 2022 · 2.60 FIP	23	SP	2.60	27.2%	9.2%	1.1%	.265	3.82	19.3%	9.9%	170	+1.22	2.60	268	74
Kyle Brnovich R 2021 · 3.95 FIP	23	SP	3.95	25.1%	7.5%	3.7%	.256	5.54	20.7%	11.0%	89	+1.59	3.95	338	73
Kumar Rocker R 2023 · 2.86 FIP	23	SP	2.86	29.1%	7.3%	2.4%	.317	3.93	22.0%	13.5%	250	+1.07	1.93	278	73
Gavin Williams R 2022 · 3.44 FIP	23	SP	3.44	26.2%	9.9%	2.4%	.238	3.89	24.9%	14.1%	398	+0.45	3.44	682	72
Nate Pearson R 2019 · 3.38 FIP	22	SP	3.38	24.8%	7.7%	2.5%	.235	4.72	27.5%	13.9%	76	+1.34	3.08	408	70
Sam Benschoter R 2022 · 3.71 FIP	24	SP-	3.71	26.3%	9.2%	3.0%	.344	4.98	18.5%	8.4%	306	+1.27	3.62	441	69
Chase Hampton R 2023 · 4.04 FIP	21	SP	4.04	26.1%	9.5%	3.5%	.296	7.55	16.7%	-0.5%	36	+3.51	4.04	142	69
Hayden Birdsong R 2023 · 3.29 FIP	21	SP	3.29	26.7%	11.9%	1.7%	.320	4.77	24.4%	11.6%	225	+1.48	3.29	326	69
Shohei Ohtani R 2018 · 3.43 FIP	24	SP	3.43	29.9%	10.4%	2.8%	.267	3.14	29.3%	21.4%	130	-0.29	1.76	613	69
Joe Ryan R 2019 · 2.41 FIP	23	SP	2.41	29.2%	6.2%	1.8%	.264	3.51	27.6%	20.9%	240	+1.10	2.41	961	69
Brayan Bello R 2021 · 3.46 FIP	22	SP	3.46	26.1%	8.6%	2.7%	.359	3.73	22.3%	13.7%	473	+0.27	2.05	1,041	68
Davis Daniel R 2021 · 3.93 FIP	24	SP	3.93	25.8%	7.7%	3.7%	.313	4.18	19.1%	12.1%	283	+0.25	3.04	593	68
Chase Silseth R 2022 · 4.42 FIP	22	SP	4.42	25.2%	9.3%	4.1%	.260	4.22	20.8%	9.3%	165	-0.20	3.30	332	68
Alek Manoah R 2021 · 3.08 FIP	23	SP	3.08	28.7%	8.2%	2.5%	.225	3.89	22.2%	13.6%	326	+0.81	3.08	520	68

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	9.9	142	31.1%	8.7%	1.18	3.58
Jon Gray ('24)	6.1	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Trevor Bauer ('21)	5.6	159	26.8%	8.7%	1.13	3.68
Joe Musgrove ('24)	5.3	117	23.9%	6.0%	1.13	3.73
Kenta Maeda ('24)	4.9	122	25.9%	6.9%	1.30	4.17
Mike Clevinger ('23)	3.9	113	24.8%	8.7%	1.07	3.45
Alex Wood ('24)	5.0	111	21.6%	7.0%	0.96	3.98