Nick Frasso — OGILVIE

Nick Frasso P Albuquerque Isotopes

Age 27 RHP 6'5" / 200 lbs AAA

2026 ROS PROJECTION44 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 121113vR 105

ERA4.65

FIP4.65

K%18.3%

BB%11.5%

K-BB%6.8%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 51 IP

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4040

CTRL4040

CMD4040

K†3040

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p6795.7

Whiff%

p1019.7%

p3720.3%

xwOBA vs

p200.348

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	22	A MLE	Dunedin Blue Jays	3	2	5	21	8	2	0	67%	1.7	38.1%	9.5%	28.6%	0.0%	0.00	1.09	—
2021	22	A RAW	Dunedin Blue Jays	3	2	5	21	8	2	0	67%	1.7	38.1%	9.5%	28.6%	0.0%	0.00	1.10	—
2022	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	16	16	54	212	76	17	2	100%	3.4	27.2%	9.2%	18.0%	1.2%	1.83	2.60	—
2022	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	16	16	54	212	76	17	2	100%	3.4	35.8%	8.0%	27.8%	0.9%	1.83	1.71	—
2023	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	25	93	399	107	31	4	100%	3.7	21.8%	8.2%	13.6%	1.1%	3.77	2.91	—
2023	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	25	93	399	107	31	4	100%	3.7	21.8%	8.2%	13.6%	1.1%	3.77	2.91	—
2023	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	25	93	399	107	31	4	100%	3.7	26.8%	7.8%	19.0%	1.0%	3.77	2.36	—
2025	26	AAA MLE	Oklahoma City Comets	43	7	77	346	68	42	10	16%	1.8	16.3%	10.9%	5.4%	3.3%	5.49	4.93	—
2025	26	AAA MLE	Oklahoma City Comets	43	7	77	346	68	42	10	16%	1.8	16.3%	10.9%	5.4%	3.3%	5.49	4.93	—
2025	26	AAA RAW	Oklahoma City Comets	43	7	77	346	68	42	10	16%	1.8	19.7%	12.1%	7.5%	2.9%	5.49	4.66	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			14	0	14	69	14	6	1	0%	1.0	20.3%	8.7%	11.6%	1.4%	6.43	3.31	+0.2
▸ 2026 season
YTD	27	MLB MLE	Colorado Rockies	40	1	44	205	62	23	3	2%	1.1	26.3%	10.4%	15.9%	1.5%	4.87	3.02	—
YTD	27	MLB MLE	Colorado Rockies	40	1	44	205	62	23	3	2%	1.1	26.3%	10.4%	15.9%	1.5%	4.87	3.02	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	27	AAA RAW	COL	26	1	30	136	48	17	2	4%	1.2	35.3%	12.5%	22.8%	1.5%	4.15	2.51	—
2026	27	MLB RAW	COL	14	0	14	69	14	6	1	0%	1.0	20.3%	8.7%	11.6%	1.4%	6.43	3.28	+0.2
SO FAR	27	MLB RAW	COL	14	0	14	69	14	6	1	0%	1.0	20.3%	8.7%	11.6%	1.4%	6.43	3.28	+0.2
ROS	27	MLB MLE	COL	6	0	6	27	5	3	1	0%	1.1	18.3%	11.5%	6.8%	3.0%	4.65	4.65	-0.0
ROS	27	MLB CTX	COL	6	0	6	25	5	3	1	0%	1.0	18.3%	11.5%	6.8%	3.0%	4.65	4.65	-0.0
2026 TOT	27	MLB MLE	COL	—	—	51	232	67	26	4	—	—	28.9%	11.3%	17.6%	1.6%	4.84	3.23	+0.8
FULL	27	MLB A+C	COL	—	—	20	86	67	26	4	—	—	78.0%	30.4%	47.6%	4.4%	12.08	2.79	+0.3
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	28	MLB MLE	COL	65	0	68	287	50	32	8	0%	1.0	17.3%	11.2%	6.1%	2.9%	5.02	5.05	-0.4
2028	29	MLB MLE	COL	62	0	65	274	48	31	8	0%	1.0	17.5%	11.2%	6.3%	3.1%	5.06	5.13	-0.4
2027	28	MLB CTX	COL	62	0	65	274	47	31	8	0%	1.0	17.3%	11.2%	6.1%	2.9%	5.02	5.05	-0.4
2028	29	MLB CTX	COL	59	0	62	262	46	29	8	0%	1.1	17.5%	11.2%	6.3%	3.1%	5.06	5.13	-0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		140	0	146	628	111	69	18	0%	1.0	17.7%	10.9%	6.8%	2.8%	5.16	4.55	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		191	0	200	858	152	94	25	0%	1.0	17.7%	10.9%	6.8%	2.8%	5.16	4.55	+0.0
Career	—	MLE		127	51	273	1183	263	113	21	40%	2.2	22.2%	9.6%	12.6%	1.8%	3.98	3.43	-0.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		93	37	200	866	192	83	16	40%	2.2	22.2%	9.6%	12.6%	1.8%	3.98	3.43	-0.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Nick Frasso (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.27	15.9%	11.7%	3.0%	—	5.09	17.4%	6.2%	133	-0.18	—	—	—
Grant Black R 2021 · 4.46 FIP	27	SW	4.46	19.0%	13.9%	2.2%	.327	5.37	14.7%	3.6%	156	+0.91	4.46	215	85
Luis Mateo R 2017 · 4.60 FIP	27	SU	4.60	17.6%	11.2%	2.9%	.309	5.55	8.6%	-4.8%	43	+0.95	3.48	160	84
Jorge Reyes R 2015 · 4.58 FIP	27	SW	4.58	15.9%	8.5%	3.2%	.307	3.49	14.2%	6.2%	129	-1.09	3.39	227	84
Josh Zeid R 2015 · 4.12 FIP	28	SU	4.12	16.6%	12.5%	1.6%	.302	5.19	16.9%	5.7%	194	+1.07	4.12	265	82
Mike Adams R 2022 · 5.36 FIP	27	SU	5.36	17.1%	11.2%	4.2%	.326	—	—	—	—	—	3.65	109	80
Julian Arballo R 2015 · 5.13 FIP	27	SU	5.13	15.1%	13.8%	2.8%	.335	4.46	12.6%	0.6%	116	-0.67	4.45	214	79
Stephen Johnson R 2016 · 5.15 FIP	25	SU	5.15	16.7%	12.7%	3.4%	.268	—	—	—	—	—	3.12	141	79
Gonzalez Germen R 2015 · 4.24 FIP	27	SU	4.24	18.0%	12.5%	1.9%	.296	3.88	19.2%	8.3%	54	-0.36	3.70	146	79
Fernando Cruz R 2015 · 5.29 FIP	25	SU	5.29	15.6%	12.2%	3.6%	.284	—	—	—	—	—	2.50	371	78
Taylor Grover R 2017 · 4.93 FIP	26	SW	4.93	20.0%	10.9%	3.9%	.320	4.89	16.2%	8.9%	14	-0.04	3.68	239	78
Derek Gordon R 2016 · 4.62 FIP	25	SW	4.62	19.9%	9.3%	3.7%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	4.62	146	78
Chris Beck R 2018 · 4.82 FIP	27	SU	4.82	17.4%	12.2%	3.0%	.305	5.28	18.1%	9.3%	41	+0.46	3.22	313	77
Dylan Cumming R 2023 · 4.11 FIP	24	SW	4.11	16.0%	10.7%	1.8%	.311	4.31	18.4%	9.4%	314	+0.20	3.75	406	77
Trevor Cahill R 2015 · 4.13 FIP	27	SW	4.13	16.4%	9.4%	2.2%	.297	4.12	22.9%	12.0%	293	-0.01	3.37	556	77
Jake Stinnett R 2019 · 4.23 FIP	27	SW	4.23	21.1%	12.2%	2.5%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	2.88	356	77
Jarret Whorff R 2023 · 4.24 FIP	24	SW	4.24	19.5%	14.2%	1.8%	.287	4.36	19.2%	10.6%	193	+0.12	3.92	257	77
Bud Norris R 2015 · 4.68 FIP	30	SW	4.68	18.8%	8.2%	3.9%	.327	3.78	24.2%	15.5%	233	-0.90	3.51	316	77
Adam Quintana R 2019 · 4.17 FIP	27	SW	4.17	18.6%	11.7%	2.1%	.297	—	—	—	—	—	1.72	201	77
Ryan Cook R 2015 · 4.73 FIP	28	SU	4.73	16.5%	9.9%	3.2%	.297	3.96	25.1%	14.3%	50	-0.77	3.96	102	77
Dennis O'Grady R 2015 · 4.95 FIP	26	SW	4.95	13.5%	11.0%	2.9%	.339	—	—	—	—	—	3.62	157	76

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.0	68	16.9%	11.4%	1.17	5.12
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86
Josh Winckowski ('24)	1.2	77	18.3%	8.2%	1.13	4.21
Steven Brault ('21)	1.7	57	18.8%	11.3%	1.00	4.77
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99