Nick Frasso

P Albuquerque Isotopes

Age 28 RHP 6'5" / 200 lbs AAA peak 0.2 · 2027

Overview

AAARP40-MANROOKIE

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	24	MIX2 levels	25	25	93	3.77	2.36	26.8%	7.8%	—	K 21.9% · BB 8.2% · FIP 2.90
2025	26	AAALAD	43	7	77	5.49	4.66	19.7%	12.1%	—	K 16.9% · BB 10.9% · FIP 4.88
2026	27	MIX2 levels	46	1	52	4.85	3.04	29.8%	10.2%	0.9	K 26.9% · BB 9.5% · FIP 3.16
2027PROJ	28	MLBCOL	45	0	47	4.55	4.61	21.5%	11.1%	-0.0
2028PROJ78% MLB	29	MLBCOL	37	0	39	4.65	4.74	21.1%	11.1%	-0.1
2029PROJ84% MLB	30	MLBCOL	33	0	35	4.80	4.92	20.5%	11.3%	-0.1

Last 3 seasons WAR 0.9 · Next 3 projected WAR -0.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

FB Velo64

K%50

xwOBA vs42

Form5.82 ERA (proj 4.55) · K 22.2% (proj 21.5%) · BB 7.1% (proj 11.1%) ▲ last 90d · 22 IP through Oct 27

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.3 / P90 0.8, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 93%

CompsLuis Mateo (age 27) · Daniel Robert (age 28) · Dustin Molleken (age 30)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 121113vR 105

ERA4.55

FIP4.61

K%21.5%

BB%11.1%

K-BB%10.4%

Proj IP66

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 66 IP

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4040

CTRL4040

CMD4040

K†5050

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p6495.5

Whiff%

p4224.2%

p5022.2%

xwOBA vs

p420.321

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	22	A MLE	Dunedin Blue Jays	3	2	5	21	8	2	0	67%	1.7	38.1%	9.5%	28.6%	0.0%	0.00	1.09	—
2021	22	A RAW	Dunedin Blue Jays	3	2	5	21	8	2	0	67%	1.7	38.1%	9.5%	28.6%	0.0%	0.00	1.10	—
2022	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	16	16	54	212	76	17	2	100%	3.4	27.2%	9.2%	18.0%	1.2%	1.83	2.60	—
2022	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	16	16	54	212	76	17	2	100%	3.4	35.8%	8.0%	27.8%	0.9%	1.83	1.71	—
2023	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	25	93	399	107	31	4	100%	3.7	21.9%	8.2%	13.7%	1.1%	3.77	2.90	—
2023	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	25	93	399	107	31	4	100%	3.7	26.8%	7.8%	19.0%	1.0%	3.77	2.36	—
2025	26	AAA MLE	Oklahoma City Comets	43	7	77	346	68	42	10	16%	1.8	16.9%	10.9%	6.0%	3.3%	5.49	4.88	—
2025	26	AAA MLE	Oklahoma City Comets	43	7	77	346	68	42	10	16%	1.8	16.9%	10.9%	6.0%	3.3%	5.49	4.88	—
2025	26	AAA RAW	Oklahoma City Comets	43	7	77	346	68	42	10	16%	1.8	19.7%	12.1%	7.5%	2.9%	5.49	4.66	—
2026	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	46	1	52	235	70	24	5	2%	1.1	26.9%	9.5%	17.4%	2.1%	4.85	3.16	+0.9
2026	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	46	1	52	235	70	24	5	2%	1.1	26.9%	9.5%	17.4%	2.1%	4.85	3.16	+0.9
2026	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	46	1	52	235	70	24	5	2%	1.1	29.8%	10.2%	19.6%	2.1%	4.85	3.04	+0.9
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			20	0	22	99	22	7	3	0%	1.1	22.2%	7.1%	15.2%	3.0%	5.82	3.84	+0.2
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	28	MLB	COL	45	0	47	198	43	22	6	0%	1.0	21.5%	11.1%	10.4%	2.8%	4.55	4.61	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	29	MLB MLE	COL	48	0	50	212	45	24	6	0%	1.0	21.1%	11.1%	10.0%	3.0%	4.65	4.74	-0.1
2029	30	MLB MLE	COL	40	0	42	176	36	20	6	0%	1.0	20.5%	11.3%	9.3%	3.2%	4.80	4.92	-0.2
2028	29	MLB CTX	COL	37	0	39	165	35	18	5	0%	1.1	21.1%	11.1%	10.0%	3.0%	4.65	4.74	-0.1
2029	30	MLB CTX	COL	33	0	35	148	30	17	5	0%	1.1	20.5%	11.3%	9.3%	3.2%	4.80	4.92	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		91	0	96	413	87	42	13	0%	1.1	21.2%	10.2%	11.0%	3.1%	4.97	4.29	+0.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		189	0	200	860	181	87	27	0%	1.1	21.2%	10.2%	11.0%	3.1%	4.97	4.29	+0.6
Career	—	MLE		133	51	281	1213	275	114	23	38%	2.1	22.6%	9.4%	13.2%	1.9%	4.00	3.43	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		95	36	200	863	196	81	17	38%	2.1	22.6%	9.4%	13.2%	1.9%	4.00	3.43	-0.2

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAAAlbuquerque Isotopes · 30 IPFIP 2.51 → 2.85 (+0.34)K% 35.3% → 30.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	35.29%	—	×0.860	30.35%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.50%	—	×0.900	11.25%
HR / BF /BF	1.47%	÷1.000	×1.100	1.62%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 2.51 → 2.85, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAAOklahoma City Comets · 77 IPFIP 4.56 → 4.88 (+0.32)K% 19.7% → 16.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	19.65%	—	×0.860	16.90%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.14%	—	×0.900	10.92%
HR / BF /BF	2.89%	÷0.956	×1.100	3.33%

Result: FIP 4.56 → 4.88, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AATulsa Drillers · 74 IPFIP 2.24 → 2.89 (+0.65)K% 29.8% → 24.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	29.84%	—	×0.810	24.17%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.62%	—	×1.100	8.38%
HR / BF /BF	1.27%	÷1.083	×1.200	1.41%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 117).

Result: FIP 2.24 → 2.89, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAAOklahoma City Dodgers · 19 IPFIP 2.85 → 2.93 (+0.08)K% 15.5% → 13.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	15.48%	—	×0.860	13.31%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.33%	—	×0.900	7.50%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.006	×1.100	0.00%

Result: FIP 2.85 → 2.93, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 ADunedin Blue Jays · 26 IPFIP 0.51 → 1.64 (+1.13)K% 42.9% → 31.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	42.86%	—	×0.740	31.71%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.16%	—	×1.180	9.63%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.916	×1.300	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 83).

Result: FIP 0.51 → 1.64, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 A+Great Lakes Loons · 17 IPFIP 1.06 → 2.11 (+1.05)K% 40.0% → 30.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	40.00%	—	×0.770	30.80%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	3.33%	—	×1.150	3.83%
HR / BF /BF	1.67%	÷1.013	×1.250	2.06%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 103).

Result: FIP 1.06 → 2.11, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AATulsa Drillers · 12 IPFIP 4.19 → 4.87 (+0.67)K% 18.5% → 15.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	18.52%	—	×0.810	15.00%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.96%	—	×1.100	14.26%
HR / BF /BF	1.85%	÷0.993	×1.200	2.24%

Result: FIP 4.19 → 4.87, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 ADunedin Blue Jays · 5 IPFIP 1.09 → 2.14 (+1.05)K% 38.1% → 28.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	38.10%	—	×0.740	28.19%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.52%	—	×1.180	11.24%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.010	×1.300	0.00%

Result: FIP 1.09 → 2.14, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Nick Frasso (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.61	21.5%	11.1%	2.8%	—	4.82	20.8%	9.7%	92	+0.21	—	—	—
Luis Mateo R 2017 · 4.60 FIP	27	SU	4.60	17.6%	11.2%	2.9%	.309	5.55	8.6%	-4.8%	43	+0.95	3.48	160	76
Daniel Robert R 2023 · 3.45 FIP	28	SU	3.45	22.7%	10.7%	1.7%	.310	3.02	25.4%	17.1%	87	-0.43	2.32	186	74
Dustin Molleken R 2015 · 3.74 FIP	30	SU	3.74	20.4%	11.7%	1.6%	.287	3.90	20.6%	8.4%	77	+0.16	3.38	129	74
Spencer Bivens R 2022 · 4.86 FIP	28	SU	4.86	19.8%	13.5%	3.1%	.265	3.85	18.1%	10.3%	272	-1.01	3.52	391	73
Coleman Huntley III R 2021 · 3.85 FIP	28	SW	3.85	20.2%	7.4%	2.8%	.348	3.56	23.4%	13.2%	86	-0.29	2.38	160	73
Emmanuel Chapman R 2024 · 4.08 FIP	25	SW	4.08	19.7%	10.6%	2.4%	.256	4.52	17.8%	1.3%	117	+0.44	3.81	198	73
Nelson Gonzalez R 2018 · 5.03 FIP	28	SW	5.03	19.2%	8.2%	4.6%	.311	6.22	16.9%	4.6%	74	+1.19	3.42	258	73
Jim Miller R 2012 · 4.56 FIP	30	SU	4.56	20.9%	11.8%	3.1%	.243	3.95	18.8%	14.7%	74	-0.61	3.95	140	72
Calvin Drummond R 2016 · 3.55 FIP	26	SW	3.55	16.9%	11.1%	0.9%	.316	—	—	—	—	—	3.48	112	72
Joe Colón J R 2017 · 4.25 FIP	27	SU	4.25	20.4%	12.1%	2.4%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	3.27	113	72
Brandon Cunniff R 2017 · 4.79 FIP	28	SU	4.79	20.1%	11.6%	3.5%	.275	6.80	13.9%	-1.9%	30	+2.01	3.89	180	71
Wirfin Obispo R 2015 · 4.80 FIP	30	SU	4.80	18.6%	12.2%	3.1%	.292	1.31	28.6%	24.5%	126	-3.49	1.30	218	71
Luis Santos R 2019 · 4.31 FIP	28	SU	4.31	22.9%	10.0%	3.4%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	3.53	472	71
Mike Adams R 2022 · 5.36 FIP	27	SU	5.36	17.1%	11.2%	4.2%	.326	—	—	—	—	—	3.65	109	71
Yoanner Negrin R 2015 · 3.79 FIP	31	SW	3.79	15.1%	7.5%	1.9%	.256	3.29	15.0%	8.5%	270	-0.50	3.15	485	70
Joe Nelson R 2006 · 3.91 FIP	31	SU	3.91	22.8%	10.4%	2.6%	.258	4.05	23.4%	12.8%	94	+0.14	3.08	139	70
Matt Ramsey R 2018 · 3.78 FIP	28	SU	3.78	24.9%	8.8%	3.0%	.276	2.42	21.7%	12.6%	34	-1.36	2.42	125	70
Austin Adams R 2015 · 3.51 FIP	28	SU	3.51	18.6%	9.5%	1.4%	.331	3.40	21.1%	15.0%	56	-0.11	3.40	162	70
Reinier Roibal R 2016 · 4.37 FIP	27	SW	4.37	16.9%	7.1%	3.3%	.371	4.91	17.5%	5.7%	37	+0.54	3.11	133	70
Jason Boyd R 2000 · 3.68 FIP	27	SU	3.68	19.9%	12.4%	1.2%	.346	4.86	13.9%	2.8%	81	+1.18	3.68	128	70

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.9	45	21.2%	10.6%	1.15	4.79
Yency Almonte ('24)	1.1	45	22.5%	9.9%	1.13	4.44
Josias Manzanillo ('04)	1.7	57	20.0%	10.2%	1.21	4.71
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*
Sam Long ('25)	1.1	42	19.5%	9.7%	1.28	4.65
Fred Lasher ('63-'71, -1 WAR*)	1.0	50	21.5%*	11.9%*	1.05*	4.68*
Kevin Hickey ('81-'91, 0 WAR*)	1.2	47	17.7%*	10.2%*	1.10*	4.27*