Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 22 | A | Dunedin Blue Jays | 3 | 2 | 5 | 21 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 67% | 1.7 | 38.1% | 9.5% | 28.6% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 1.09 | — |
| 2021 | 22 | A | Dunedin Blue Jays | 3 | 2 | 5 | 21 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 67% | 1.7 | 38.1% | 9.5% | 28.6% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 1.10 | — |
| 2022 | 23 | MIX | 3 levels | 16 | 16 | 54 | 212 | 76 | 17 | 2 | 100% | 3.4 | 27.2% | 9.2% | 18.0% | 1.1% | 1.83 | 2.60 | — |
| 2022 | 23 | MIX | 3 levels | 16 | 16 | 54 | 212 | 76 | 17 | 2 | 100% | 3.4 | 35.8% | 8.0% | 27.8% | 0.9% | 1.83 | 1.71 | — |
| 2023 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 25 | 25 | 93 | 399 | 107 | 31 | 4 | 100% | 3.7 | 21.9% | 8.5% | 13.5% | 1.0% | 3.77 | 2.88 | — |
| 2023 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 25 | 25 | 93 | 399 | 107 | 31 | 4 | 100% | 3.7 | 26.8% | 7.8% | 19.0% | 1.0% | 3.77 | 2.36 | — |
| 2025 | 26 | AAA | Oklahoma City Comets | 43 | 7 | 77 | 346 | 68 | 42 | 10 | 16% | 1.8 | 17.3% | 12.7% | 4.5% | 3.5% | 5.49 | 5.17 | — |
| 2025 | 26 | AAA | Oklahoma City Comets | 43 | 7 | 77 | 346 | 68 | 42 | 10 | 16% | 1.8 | 19.7% | 12.1% | 7.5% | 2.9% | 5.49 | 4.66 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 27 | AAA | Oklahoma City Comets | 20 | 1 | 24 | 111 | 38 | 17 | 2 | 5% | 1.2 | 30.1% | 16.1% | 14.0% | 2.0% | 4.94 | 3.68 | +0.2 |
| ROS | 27 | MLB | LAD | 45 | 0 | 47 | 198 | 33 | 26 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 16.7% | 13.3% | 3.4% | 3.1% | 5.44 | 5.44 | -0.5 |
| ROS | 27 | MLB | LAD | 18 | 0 | 19 | 80 | 13 | 11 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 16.7% | 13.3% | 3.4% | 3.1% | 5.44 | 5.44 | -0.2 |
| 2026 TOT | 27 | MLB | LAD | — | — | 71 | 309 | 71 | 43 | 8 | — | — | 23.0% | 14.0% | 9.0% | 2.6% | 5.27 | 4.85 | -0.1 |
| 2026 FULL | 27 | MLB | LAD | — | — | 19 | 79 | 13 | 11 | 2 | — | — | 16.7% | 13.3% | 3.4% | 3.1% | 5.44 | 5.06 | -0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | LAD | 65 | 0 | 68 | 287 | 50 | 37 | 9 | 0% | 1.0 | 17.3% | 13.1% | 4.2% | 3.2% | 5.38 | 5.42 | -0.6 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | LAD | 62 | 0 | 65 | 274 | 48 | 36 | 9 | 0% | 1.0 | 17.5% | 13.0% | 4.5% | 3.3% | 5.40 | 5.46 | -0.6 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB | LAD | 58 | 0 | 61 | 257 | 45 | 34 | 9 | 0% | 1.1 | 17.4% | 13.1% | 4.3% | 3.5% | 5.49 | 5.58 | -0.7 |
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | LAD | 39 | 0 | 41 | 173 | 30 | 23 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 17.3% | 13.1% | 4.2% | 3.2% | 5.38 | 5.42 | -0.4 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | LAD | 44 | 0 | 46 | 194 | 34 | 25 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 17.5% | 13.0% | 4.5% | 3.3% | 5.40 | 5.46 | -0.5 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB | LAD | 46 | 0 | 48 | 203 | 35 | 27 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 17.4% | 13.1% | 4.3% | 3.5% | 5.49 | 5.58 | -0.6 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 148 | 0 | 155 | 654 | 113 | 86 | 22 | 0% | 1.0 | 17.3% | 13.1% | 4.2% | 3.3% | 5.43 | 5.11 | +0.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 146 | 111 | 28 | 0% | 1.1 | 17.3% | 13.1% | 4.2% | 3.3% | 5.43 | 5.11 | +0.7 | ||
| Career | — | 107 | 51 | 253 | 1089 | 247 | 117 | 21 | 48% | 2.4 | 22.6% | 10.8% | 11.9% | 1.9% | 3.92 | 3.60 | +5.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 85 | 40 | 200 | 862 | 195 | 93 | 16 | 48% | 2.4 | 22.6% | 10.8% | 11.9% | 1.9% | 3.92 | 3.60 | +4.2 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Nick Frasso (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.44 | 16.7% | 13.3% | 3.1% | — | 5.48 | 17.4% | 4.3% | 194 | +0.04 | — | — | — |
| Grant Black R 2026 · 4.49 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.49 | 19.0% | 13.9% | 2.2% | .327 | 5.46 | 15.2% | 3.1% | 156 | +0.97 | 4.49 | 215 | 86 |
| Paul Clemens R 2026 · 5.36 FIP | 27 | SP- | 5.36 | 14.3% | 14.1% | 3.1% | .310 | 4.76 | 16.9% | 7.3% | 200 | -0.60 | 4.76 | 247 | 80 |
| Luis Mateo R 2026 · 4.33 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.33 | 17.6% | 11.2% | 2.4% | .309 | 5.34 | 8.6% | -4.8% | 43 | +1.01 | 3.43 | 160 | 78 |
| Dustin Antolin R 2026 · 4.36 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.36 | 16.2% | 14.4% | 1.5% | .368 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.90 | 159 | 78 |
| Alex Caldera R 2028 · 5.56 FIP | 29 | SW | 5.56 | 10.4% | 13.1% | 3.1% | .333 | 4.61 | 11.9% | 0.8% | 84 | -0.95 | 4.61 | 120 | 78 |
| Julian Arballo R 2026 · 5.47 FIP | 27 | SU | 5.47 | 15.1% | 13.8% | 3.5% | .335 | 4.38 | 12.6% | 0.6% | 116 | -1.09 | 4.28 | 214 | 78 |
| Colby Morris R 2024 · 5.76 FIP | 25 | SW | 5.76 | 16.2% | 11.8% | 4.6% | .268 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.23 | 105 | 78 |
| Dennis O'Grady R 2025 · 5.19 FIP | 26 | SW | 5.19 | 13.5% | 11.0% | 3.4% | .339 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.79 | 157 | 77 |
| Mike Adams R 2026 · 5.26 FIP | 27 | SU | 5.26 | 17.1% | 11.2% | 4.0% | .326 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.66 | 109 | 77 |
| Fernando Cruz R 2024 · 5.41 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.41 | 15.6% | 12.2% | 3.8% | .284 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.52 | 356 | 77 |
| Stephen Johnson R 2024 · 5.44 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.44 | 16.7% | 12.7% | 3.9% | .268 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.10 | 141 | 76 |
| Logan Taylor R 2025 · 4.78 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.78 | 17.2% | 12.1% | 2.9% | .316 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.49 | 300 | 76 |
| Taylor Grover R 2025 · 4.89 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.89 | 20.0% | 10.9% | 3.8% | .320 | 4.92 | 16.2% | 8.9% | 14 | +0.03 | 3.63 | 239 | 76 |
| Jorge Reyes R 2026 · 5.25 FIP | 27 | SW | 5.25 | 15.9% | 8.5% | 4.4% | .307 | 3.44 | 14.2% | 6.2% | 129 | -1.81 | 3.32 | 227 | 75 |
| Alfonso Sanchez R 2026 · 4.81 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.81 | 12.5% | 9.1% | 2.9% | .346 | 4.97 | 14.0% | 5.3% | 138 | +0.16 | 4.54 | 224 | 74 |
| Chris Beck R 2026 · 4.83 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.83 | 17.4% | 12.2% | 3.0% | .305 | 5.33 | 18.1% | 9.3% | 41 | +0.50 | 3.11 | 313 | 74 |
| Josh Roeder R 2025 · 4.75 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.75 | 15.1% | 8.7% | 3.3% | .264 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.75 | 175 | 73 |
| Cesar Gomez R 2026 · 5.27 FIP | 27 | SW | 5.27 | 14.2% | 9.1% | 4.1% | .316 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.97 | 345 | 73 |
| Chris Jefferson R 2026 · 5.37 FIP | 27 | SU | 5.37 | 16.4% | 13.6% | 3.5% | .308 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.74 | 140 | 73 |
| Clate Schmidt R 2024 · 5.61 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.61 | 13.5% | 13.9% | 3.4% | .290 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.58 | 160 | 73 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 60 | 17.3% | 13.1% | 1.27 | 5.42 |
| Roansy Contreras ('24) | 3 | 77 | 19.5% | 10.1% | 1.36 | 4.78 |
| Jorge De La Rosa ('18) | 4 | 98 | 19.5% | 10.3% | 1.22 | 4.52 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Amir Garrett ('23) | 6 | 51 | 25.8% | 13.4% | 1.50 | 5.10 |
| Steven Brault ('21) | 6 | 57 | 18.8% | 11.3% | 1.00 | 4.77 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |