Reese Olson
P
Detroit Tigers
+0.4
WAR
INJURED · Injured 60-Day (D60)
Age 27
RHP
6'1" / 160 lbs
MLB
Svc 2.0 · Ctrl thru 2029
peak 1.3 · 2027
ERA3.71
FIP3.78
xFIP4.03
SIERA4.15
K%22.7%
BB%8.1%
K-BB%14.7%
IP85
trajectory · 10 yrs
1.3peak
2027
K†5555
FB Velo
p4794.3
Whiff%
p7829.7%
K%
p5322.8%
xwOBA vs
p490.313
CH+2.9 (26%)
FB+2.9 (47%)
SL+0.8 (22%)
SI (28%)
CU (6%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 19 | ROK | AZL Brewers | 4 | 2 | 10 | 45 | 6 | 4 | 0 | — | — | — | 5.23 | — | — |
| 2019 | 20 | A | Wisconsin Timber Rattlers | 27 | 14 | 95 | 425 | 84 | 47 | 8 | 14.6% | 13.0% | 2.4% | 4.66 | 4.83 | +0.5 |
| 2021 | 22 | AA | Erie SeaWolves | 21 | 21 | 105 | 439 | 114 | 51 | 6 | 20.2% | 13.2% | 1.9% | 3.96 | 4.10 | +1.4 |
| 2022 | 23 | AA | Erie SeaWolves | 26 | 25 | 120 | 508 | 168 | 38 | 15 | 26.8% | 8.2% | 3.8% | 4.14 | 3.98 | +1.8 |
| 2023 | 24 | MLB | Detroit Tigers | 31 | 28 | 140 | 597 | 150 | 55 | 19 | 24.2% | 9.4% | 3.5% | 4.62 | 4.15 | +1.8 |
| 2024 | 25 | MLB | Detroit Tigers | 24 | 24 | 117 | 483 | 107 | 35 | 7 | 21.7% | 7.1% | 1.5% | 3.38 | 3.00 | +3.1 |
| 2025 | 26 | MLB | Detroit Tigers | 16 | 16 | 79 | 326 | 79 | 25 | 7 | 22.8% | 8.1% | 1.7% | 3.19 | 3.11 | +1.8 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 27 | MLB | DET | 26 | — | 26 | 108 | 25 | 9 | 3 | 23.2% | 8.1% | 2.3% | 3.72 | 3.81 | +0.3 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | DET | 16 | 16 | 86 | 363 | 84 | 29 | 9 | 23.2% | 8.1% | 2.4% | 3.79 | 3.84 | +1.3 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | DET | 15 | 15 | 84 | 355 | 81 | 29 | 9 | 22.7% | 8.2% | 2.4% | 3.87 | 3.92 | +1.2 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB | DET | 15 | 15 | 82 | 345 | 76 | 29 | 8 | 22.2% | 8.3% | 2.5% | 3.95 | 4.01 | +1.0 |
| 2030 | 31 | MLB | DET | 14 | 14 | 79 | 332 | 78 | 25 | 8 | 23.6% | 7.6% | 2.5% | 3.88 | 3.84 | +1.1 |
| 2031 | 32 | MLB | DET | 14 | 14 | 76 | 319 | 73 | 25 | 8 | 23.0% | 7.8% | 2.6% | 3.93 | 3.96 | +1.0 |
| 2032 | 33 | MLB | DET | 13 | 13 | 72 | 305 | 68 | 24 | 8 | 22.3% | 7.9% | 2.7% | 4.02 | 4.08 | +0.8 |
| 2033 | 34 | MLB | DET | 12 | 12 | 69 | 290 | 63 | 24 | 8 | 21.6% | 8.1% | 2.8% | 4.14 | 4.22 | +0.6 |
| 2034 | 35 | MLB | DET | 12 | 12 | 65 | 273 | 57 | 23 | 8 | 20.9% | 8.4% | 2.9% | 4.28 | 4.38 | +0.4 |
| 2035 | 36 | MLB | DET | 11 | 11 | 60 | 255 | 51 | 22 | 8 | 20.1% | 8.6% | 3.0% | 4.44 | 4.54 | +0.3 |
| 2036 | 37 | MLB | DET | 56 | — | 56 | 237 | 46 | 21 | 7 | 19.3% | 8.9% | 3.2% | 4.60 | 4.71 | +0.2 |
| 2037 | 38 | MLB | DET | 52 | — | 52 | 218 | 40 | 20 | 7 | 18.4% | 9.2% | 3.3% | 4.78 | 4.90 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 149 | 130 | 666 | 2823 | 616 | 276 | 71 | 21.8% | 9.8% | 2.5% | 4.05 | 3.88 | +10.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 45 | 39 | 200 | 848 | 185 | 83 | 21 | 21.8% | 9.8% | 2.5% | 4.05 | 3.88 | +3.2 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Reese Olson (OGILVIE) | — | — | 3.81 | 23.2% | 8.1% | 2.3% | — | 3.92 | 22.7% | 14.5% | 252 | +0.11 | — | — | — |
| Matt Ramsey R 2026 · 3.21 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.21 | 24.2% | 9.6% | 1.7% | .330 | 3.20 | 23.6% | 14.6% | 81 | -0.01 | 2.42 | 125 | 67 |
| Austin Ross R 2026 · 3.80 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.80 | 22.9% | 8.0% | 3.0% | .295 | 3.70 | 12.4% | 5.2% | 127 | -0.10 | 3.17 | 269 | 66 |
| Daniel Hudson R 2027 · 3.48 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.48 | 24.5% | 7.9% | 2.6% | .302 | 3.74 | 22.8% | 13.6% | 168 | +0.26 | 1.69 | 468 | 66 |
| Bryan Shaw R 2026 · 3.91 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.91 | 20.4% | 6.8% | 3.0% | .276 | 3.53 | 23.3% | 15.0% | 198 | -0.38 | 2.86 | 596 | 66 |
| Jason Adam R 2026 · 3.37 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.37 | 24.2% | 9.0% | 2.1% | .237 | 2.63 | 33.1% | 24.9% | 88 | -0.74 | 2.40 | 362 | 66 |
| Jaye Chapman R 2027 · 3.34 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.34 | 21.6% | 8.5% | 1.8% | .276 | 4.07 | 20.3% | 11.3% | 85 | +0.73 | 3.25 | 150 | 66 |
| Ryan Brasier R 2027 · 3.68 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.68 | 25.0% | 7.7% | 3.1% | .289 | 3.07 | 24.2% | 17.9% | 130 | -0.61 | 2.31 | 403 | 66 |
| Seth Simmons R 2026 · 3.07 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.07 | 23.8% | 9.7% | 1.4% | .277 | 4.88 | 16.6% | 7.6% | 175 | +1.81 | 3.07 | 251 | 66 |
| Sam Dyson R 2026 · 2.67 FIP | 27 | SW | 2.67 | 23.0% | 6.5% | 1.3% | .285 | 3.88 | 18.0% | 10.1% | 195 | +1.21 | 2.67 | 333 | 65 |
| Wil Browning R 2026 · 2.75 FIP | 27 | SW | 2.75 | 23.8% | 7.4% | 1.3% | .292 | 4.45 | 17.9% | 4.8% | 58 | +1.70 | 2.14 | 162 | 65 |
| Cory Gearrin R 2028 · 3.52 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.52 | 22.1% | 7.5% | 2.4% | .283 | 3.61 | 22.2% | 13.6% | 174 | +0.09 | 3.17 | 272 | 65 |
| Simon Castro R 2026 · 3.26 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.26 | 26.4% | 8.5% | 2.4% | .320 | 3.48 | 26.0% | 17.6% | 128 | +0.22 | 3.07 | 185 | 65 |
| Taylor Williams R 2026 · 3.48 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.48 | 24.2% | 8.9% | 2.4% | .309 | 4.33 | 22.5% | 12.7% | 108 | +0.85 | 2.36 | 309 | 65 |
| Pedro Garcia R 2026 · 3.29 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.29 | 22.9% | 9.1% | 1.8% | .276 | 6.26 | 27.5% | 9.3% | 50 | +2.97 | 2.80 | 155 | 65 |
| Spencer Patton R 2026 · 3.49 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.49 | 26.8% | 9.6% | 2.6% | .295 | 2.83 | 30.3% | 18.1% | 57 | -0.66 | 2.83 | 239 | 65 |
| Ryan Kelly R 2026 · 3.50 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.50 | 20.3% | 7.5% | 2.1% | .241 | 3.22 | 20.8% | 14.2% | 43 | -0.28 | 2.49 | 131 | 65 |
| Coleman Huntley III R 2027 · 3.91 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.91 | 20.2% | 7.4% | 2.9% | .348 | 3.55 | 23.4% | 13.2% | 86 | -0.36 | 2.38 | 160 | 65 |
| Blake Smith R 2026 · 3.18 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.18 | 23.3% | 10.5% | 1.3% | .290 | 3.63 | 22.4% | 13.8% | 71 | +0.45 | 3.18 | 124 | 64 |
| Blake Treinen R 2026 · 3.02 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.02 | 23.2% | 9.3% | 1.3% | .314 | 2.56 | 26.4% | 19.2% | 223 | -0.46 | 1.54 | 521 | 64 |
| Cole Sulser R 2026 · 3.54 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.54 | 22.6% | 10.2% | 1.9% | .321 | 2.87 | 28.2% | 18.4% | 140 | -0.67 | 2.39 | 509 | 64 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status Pre-Arb SUPER-2
MLB Debut 2023
Service 2.715 yrs.days
Team Control Through 2029
First FA Year 2027
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | Arb-1 | $0.8M | +0.4 | $2M | +$0.8M |
| 2027 | Arb-2 | $4M | +1.3 | $11M | +$7M |
| 2028 | Arb-3 | $6M | +1.2 | $10M | +$4M |
| 2029 | Arb-4 | $8M | +1.0 | $9M | +$0.4M |
| Totals | $19M | $31M | +$12M | ||