Reese Olson
P
Detroit Tigers
Age 27
RHP
6'1" / 160 lbs
MLB
Svc 2.0 · Ctrl thru 2029
peak 1.5 · 2027
ILInjured 60-Day (D60)
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 85 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 10798vR 89
ERA3.85
FIP3.87
K%23.2%
BB%7.9%
K-BB%15.3%
ROS IP85
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 85 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p4794.3
Whiff%
p7829.7%
K%
p5322.8%
xwOBA vs
p490.313
CH+2.9 (26%)
FB+2.9 (47%)
SL+0.8 (22%)
SI (28%)
CU (6%)
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 19 | ROK | AZL Brewers | 4 | 2 | 10 | 45 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 50% | 2.6 | 13.3% | 8.9% | 4.4% | 0.0% | 5.23 | 3.10 | — |
| 2018 | 19 | ROK | AZL Brewers | 4 | 2 | 10 | 45 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 50% | 2.6 | 13.3% | 8.9% | 4.4% | 0.0% | 5.23 | 3.10 | — |
| 2019 | 20 | A | Wisconsin Timber Rattlers | 27 | 14 | 95 | 425 | 84 | 47 | 8 | 52% | 3.5 | 14.6% | 13.0% | 1.6% | 2.3% | 4.66 | 4.80 | — |
| 2019 | 20 | A | Wisconsin Timber Rattlers | 27 | 14 | 95 | 425 | 84 | 47 | 8 | 52% | 3.5 | 19.8% | 11.1% | 8.7% | 1.9% | 4.66 | 3.91 | — |
| 2021 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 21 | 21 | 105 | 439 | 114 | 51 | 6 | 100% | 5.0 | 20.2% | 13.2% | 7.0% | 2.3% | 3.96 | 4.35 | — |
| 2021 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 21 | 21 | 105 | 439 | 114 | 51 | 6 | 100% | 5.0 | 26.0% | 11.6% | 14.4% | 1.4% | 3.96 | 3.13 | — |
| 2022 | 23 | AA | Erie SeaWolves | 26 | 25 | 120 | 508 | 168 | 38 | 15 | 96% | 4.6 | 26.8% | 8.2% | 18.6% | 4.2% | 4.14 | 4.16 | — |
| 2022 | 23 | AA | Erie SeaWolves | 26 | 25 | 120 | 508 | 168 | 38 | 15 | 96% | 4.6 | 33.1% | 7.5% | 25.6% | 3.0% | 4.14 | 2.87 | — |
| 2023 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 31 | 28 | 140 | 597 | 150 | 55 | 19 | 90% | 4.5 | 24.2% | 9.4% | 14.8% | 3.7% | 4.62 | 4.29 | +1.8 |
| 2023 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 31 | 28 | 140 | 597 | 150 | 55 | 19 | 90% | 4.5 | 25.1% | 9.2% | 15.9% | 3.2% | 4.62 | 3.90 | +2.5 |
| 2024 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 24 | 24 | 117 | 483 | 107 | 35 | 7 | 100% | 4.9 | 21.7% | 7.1% | 14.6% | 1.6% | 3.38 | 3.07 | +3.2 |
| 2024 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 24 | 24 | 117 | 483 | 107 | 35 | 7 | 100% | 4.9 | 22.2% | 7.2% | 14.9% | 1.4% | 3.38 | 2.95 | +3.4 |
| 2025 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 16 | 16 | 79 | 326 | 79 | 25 | 7 | 100% | 4.9 | 22.8% | 8.1% | 14.7% | 1.9% | 3.19 | 3.25 | +1.6 |
| 2025 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 16 | 16 | 79 | 326 | 79 | 25 | 7 | 100% | 4.9 | 24.2% | 7.7% | 16.6% | 2.1% | 3.19 | 3.20 | +1.6 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 27 | MLB | DET | 10 | 10 | 57 | 242 | 56 | 19 | 6 | 100% | 5.7 | 23.2% | 7.9% | 15.3% | 2.5% | 3.85 | 3.87 | +0.5 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | DET | 14 | 14 | 85 | 360 | 83 | 29 | 9 | 100% | 6.1 | 23.1% | 8.1% | 15.0% | 2.6% | 3.91 | 3.95 | +1.1 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | DET | 14 | 14 | 82 | 344 | 77 | 28 | 9 | 100% | 5.8 | 22.5% | 8.3% | 14.2% | 2.7% | 4.03 | 4.11 | +0.9 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB | DET | 13 | 13 | 77 | 323 | 77 | 25 | 9 | 100% | 5.9 | 23.8% | 7.8% | 16.0% | 2.9% | 4.04 | 4.05 | +0.8 |
| 2030 | 31 | MLB | DET | 12 | 12 | 71 | 301 | 69 | 25 | 9 | 100% | 6.0 | 23.1% | 8.1% | 14.9% | 3.1% | 4.18 | 4.28 | +0.4 |
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | DET | 14 | 14 | 81 | 342 | 79 | 28 | 8 | 100% | 5.8 | 23.1% | 8.1% | 15.0% | 2.4% | 3.85 | 3.89 | +1.0 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | DET | 13 | 13 | 77 | 325 | 73 | 27 | 8 | 100% | 5.9 | 22.5% | 8.3% | 14.2% | 2.6% | 3.97 | 4.05 | +0.8 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB | DET | 12 | 12 | 73 | 308 | 73 | 24 | 9 | 100% | 6.1 | 23.8% | 7.8% | 16.0% | 2.8% | 3.97 | 3.98 | +0.7 |
| 2030 | 31 | MLB | DET | 11 | 11 | 68 | 287 | 66 | 23 | 9 | 100% | 6.2 | 23.1% | 8.1% | 14.9% | 3.0% | 4.11 | 4.21 | +0.4 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 106 | 103 | 584 | 2435 | 561 | 191 | 60 | 97% | 5.5 | 23.0% | 7.8% | 15.2% | 2.5% | 3.79 | 3.50 | +13.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 36 | 35 | 200 | 834 | 192 | 65 | 21 | 97% | 5.5 | 23.0% | 7.8% | 15.2% | 2.5% | 3.79 | 3.50 | +4.4 | ||
| Career | — | 149 | 130 | 666 | 2823 | 616 | 276 | 78 | 87% | 4.5 | 21.8% | 9.8% | 12.1% | 2.8% | 4.05 | 4.00 | +10.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 45 | 39 | 200 | 848 | 185 | 83 | 23 | 87% | 4.5 | 21.8% | 9.8% | 12.1% | 2.8% | 4.05 | 4.00 | +3.3 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Reese Olson (OGILVIE) | — | — | 3.87 | 23.2% | 7.9% | 2.5% | — | 4.04 | 23.1% | 15.1% | 243 | +0.17 | — | — | — |
| Raynel Espinal R 2026 · 3.76 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.76 | 22.4% | 7.1% | 3.0% | .313 | 3.72 | 22.3% | 12.4% | 224 | -0.04 | 2.53 | 507 | 63 |
| Rorik Maltrud R 2025 · 4.15 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.15 | 18.9% | 7.9% | 3.0% | .283 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.87 | 247 | 62 |
| Mat Latos R 2026 · 3.68 FIP | 27 | SP | 3.68 | 20.2% | 6.3% | 2.7% | .306 | 5.21 | 14.5% | 4.4% | 128 | +1.53 | 3.68 | 244 | 62 |
| Yariel Rodríguez R 2026 · 3.80 FIP | 27 | SP | 3.80 | 25.1% | 11.8% | 2.4% | .275 | 3.77 | 24.2% | 12.3% | 89 | -0.03 | 2.60 | 196 | 61 |
| Kumar Rocker R 2025 · 4.16 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.16 | 20.5% | 8.7% | 3.1% | .292 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.95 | 230 | 61 |
| Connor Grey R 2026 · 3.88 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.88 | 22.1% | 8.1% | 2.9% | .286 | 4.32 | 16.2% | 7.0% | 104 | +0.44 | 2.81 | 461 | 61 |
| Hector Noesí R 2027 · 4.21 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.21 | 17.6% | 8.1% | 2.9% | .261 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.21 | 250 | 61 |
| Preston Johnson R 2025 · 3.47 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.47 | 23.4% | 9.5% | 2.1% | .295 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.47 | 146 | 60 |
| Markus Solbach R 2026 · 3.61 FIP | 27 | SP | 3.61 | 16.9% | 6.1% | 2.1% | .311 | 4.76 | 17.1% | 9.1% | 111 | +1.15 | 3.25 | 391 | 60 |
| Antonio Guzman R 2026 · 3.60 FIP | 27 | SP | 3.60 | 18.8% | 11.2% | 1.2% | .328 | 3.63 | 20.6% | 11.3% | 170 | +0.03 | 3.22 | 254 | 60 |
| Stephen Fife R 2028 · 3.20 FIP | 29 | SP | 3.20 | 18.8% | 8.1% | 1.2% | .329 | 3.62 | 14.1% | 8.3% | 152 | +0.42 | 3.20 | 179 | 60 |
| Burch Smith R 2026 · 3.94 FIP | 27 | SP | 3.94 | 19.5% | 12.6% | 1.6% | .234 | 4.41 | 22.2% | 10.5% | 192 | +0.47 | 3.39 | 382 | 60 |
| Blake Wehunt R 2024 · 3.98 FIP | 25 | SP | 3.98 | 26.8% | 8.1% | 3.9% | .325 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.63 | 209 | 60 |
| Rubby De La Rosa R 2026 · 4.02 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.02 | 24.3% | 8.6% | 3.5% | .248 | 4.01 | 27.6% | 18.3% | 42 | -0.01 | 3.97 | 281 | 59 |
| Dylan Cumming R 2026 · 4.71 FIP | 27 | SP | 4.71 | 16.4% | 7.6% | 3.7% | .306 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.69 | 366 | 59 |
| Jesse Scholtens R 2026 · 3.97 FIP | 27 | SP | 3.97 | 20.8% | 8.2% | 2.9% | .314 | 4.44 | 19.2% | 11.4% | 215 | +0.47 | 3.13 | 825 | 58 |
| Zack Wheeler R 2026 · 4.75 FIP | 27 | SP | 4.75 | 21.0% | 10.1% | 3.9% | .327 | 3.09 | 23.0% | 16.8% | 449 | -1.66 | 2.31 | 1,536 | 58 |
| Brett Sears R 2025 · 3.56 FIP | 26 | SP | 3.56 | 23.9% | 5.8% | 3.2% | .310 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.56 | 167 | 58 |
| David Phelps R 2027 · 3.94 FIP | 28 | SP | 3.94 | 16.0% | 6.8% | 2.4% | .299 | 2.83 | 29.9% | 20.6% | 142 | -1.11 | 2.51 | 373 | 58 |
| Landen Roupp R 2026 · 3.19 FIP | 27 | SP | 3.19 | 25.3% | 10.2% | 1.7% | .302 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.43 | 414 | 58 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 5 | 74 | 23.1% | 8.0% | 1.06 | 4.01 |
| Adam Warren ('19) | 5 | 67 | 20.8% | 8.3% | 1.08 | 3.55 |
| David Hernandez ('19) | 5 | 54 | 25.0% | 7.9% | 1.14 | 4.10 |
| Kelvin Herrera ('19) | 5 | 59 | 23.8% | 7.3% | 1.03 | 3.58 |
| Zach McAllister ('18) | 4 | 57 | 24.8% | 7.9% | 1.14 | 3.63 |
| Juan Nicasio ('19) | 5 | 68 | 25.5% | 8.4% | 0.83 | 4.21 |
| Jim Johnson ('18) | 4 | 63 | 20.7% | 8.0% | 0.90 | 4.19 |