Chase Hampton

P Somerset Patriots

Age 25 RHP 6'2" / 225 lbs AA

Overview

AA40-MANPROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%10%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	21	MIX2 levels	20	20	107	3.63	3.01	33.1%	8.4%	—	K 26.1% · BB 9.5% · FIP 4.04
2024	22	MIX3 levels	7	7	19	2.41	3.53	21.1%	11.8%	—	K 21.1% · BB 11.8% · FIP 3.54
2026	24	MIX3 levels	17	17	55	8.18	5.99	21.3%	12.9%	—	K 16.7% · BB 17.2% · FIP 7.55
2027PROJ	25	MLBNYY	2	2	13	5.98	5.98	18.2%	15.9%	-0.1
2028PROJ48% MLB	26	MLBNYY	8	8	46	5.75	5.72	19.5%	15.0%	-0.2
2029PROJ66% MLB	27	MLBNYY	9	9	55	5.65	5.65	19.7%	14.5%	-0.2

Next 3 projected WAR -0.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.2 / P90 0.4, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 95%

CompsWill Schomberg (age 23) · Jake Bockenstedt (age 24) · J.P. France (age 24)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 147139vR 130

ERA5.98

FIP5.98

K%18.2%

BB%15.9%

K-BB%2.4%

Proj IP127

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 127 IP

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	20	107	438	145	37	13	100%	5.3	26.1%	9.5%	16.6%	3.5%	3.63	4.04	—
2023	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	20	20	107	438	145	37	13	100%	5.3	33.1%	8.4%	24.7%	3.0%	3.63	3.01	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	7	7	19	76	16	9	1	100%	2.7	21.1%	11.8%	9.2%	1.3%	2.41	3.54	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	7	7	19	76	16	9	1	100%	2.7	21.1%	11.8%	9.2%	1.3%	2.41	3.54	—
2024	22	MIX RAW	3 levels	7	7	19	76	16	9	1	100%	2.7	21.1%	11.8%	9.2%	1.3%	2.41	3.53	—
2026	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	17	17	55	263	56	34	13	100%	3.2	16.7%	17.2%	-0.5%	6.7%	8.18	7.55	—
2026	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	17	17	55	263	56	34	13	100%	3.2	16.7%	17.2%	-0.5%	6.7%	8.18	7.55	—
2026	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	17	17	55	263	56	34	13	100%	3.2	21.3%	12.9%	8.4%	4.9%	8.18	5.99	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	25	MLB	NYY	2	2	13	55	10	9	2	100%	6.5	18.2%	15.9%	2.4%	3.7%	5.98	5.98	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	NYY	16	16	96	403	79	61	15	100%	6.0	19.5%	15.0%	4.5%	3.6%	5.75	5.72	-0.3
2029	27	MLB MLE	NYY	14	14	83	351	69	51	13	100%	5.9	19.7%	14.5%	5.1%	3.6%	5.65	5.65	-0.2
2030	28	MLB MLE	NYY	13	13	77	323	64	46	12	100%	5.9	19.7%	14.3%	5.3%	3.7%	5.63	5.66	-0.2
2031	29	MLB MLE	NYY	12	12	71	299	58	43	11	100%	5.9	19.5%	14.4%	5.1%	3.8%	5.70	5.76	-0.3
2032	30	MLB MLE	NYY	11	11	64	271	52	40	11	100%	5.8	19.1%	14.7%	4.4%	4.0%	5.84	5.94	-0.4
2028	26	MLB CTX	NYY	8	8	46	194	38	29	7	100%	5.8	19.5%	15.0%	4.5%	3.6%	5.75	5.72	-0.2
2029	27	MLB CTX	NYY	9	9	55	232	46	34	8	100%	6.1	19.7%	14.5%	5.1%	3.6%	5.65	5.65	-0.2
2030	28	MLB CTX	NYY	10	10	59	249	49	36	9	100%	5.9	19.7%	14.3%	5.3%	3.7%	5.63	5.66	-0.2
2031	29	MLB CTX	NYY	10	10	59	249	49	36	10	100%	5.9	19.5%	14.4%	5.1%	3.8%	5.70	5.76	-0.2
2032	30	MLB CTX	NYY	9	9	56	236	45	35	10	100%	6.2	19.1%	14.7%	4.4%	4.0%	5.84	5.94	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		46	46	274	1158	226	169	44	100%	6.0	19.5%	14.6%	4.9%	3.8%	5.71	5.37	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	165	123	32	100%	6.0	19.5%	14.6%	4.9%	3.8%	5.71	5.37	+0.1
Career	—	MLE		44	44	180	777	174	96	34	100%	4.1	22.4%	12.3%	10.1%	4.4%	4.89	5.18	-1.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		49	49	200	862	193	106	38	100%	4.1	22.4%	12.3%	10.1%	4.4%	4.89	5.18	-0.8

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AASomerset Patriots · 36 IPFIP 6.40 → 7.55 (+1.14)K% 20.7% → 16.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.67%	—	×0.810	16.74%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	15.64%	—	×1.100	17.21%
HR / BF /BF	5.59%	÷1.000	×1.200	6.70%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 6.40 → 7.55, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 A+Hudson Valley Renegades · 11 IPFIP 3.36 → 4.25 (+0.89)K% 22.9% → 17.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.92%	—	×0.770	17.65%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.33%	—	×1.150	9.58%
HR / BF /BF	2.08%	÷1.000	×1.250	2.60%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.36 → 4.25, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 ATampa Tarpons · 9 IPFIP 4.98 → 6.51 (+1.53)K% 22.2% → 16.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.22%	—	×0.740	16.44%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.56%	—	×1.180	6.56%
HR / BF /BF	5.56%	÷1.000	×1.300	7.22%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.98 → 6.51, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 ATampa Tarpons · 10 IPFIP 3.45 → 4.57 (+1.11)K% 22.2% → 16.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.22%	—	×0.740	16.44%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.56%	—	×1.180	6.56%
HR / BF /BF	2.78%	÷0.979	×1.300	3.69%

Result: FIP 3.45 → 4.57, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AASomerset Patriots · 6 IPFIP 3.28 → 3.70 (+0.43)K% 16.7% → 13.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	16.67%	—	×0.810	13.50%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.50%	—	×1.100	13.75%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.027	×1.200	0.00%

Result: FIP 3.28 → 3.70, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AASomerset Patriots · 60 IPFIP 3.63 → 4.46 (+0.83)K% 27.4% → 22.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.42%	—	×0.810	22.21%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.47%	—	×1.100	9.31%
HR / BF /BF	3.23%	÷1.033	×1.200	3.75%

Result: FIP 3.63 → 4.46, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 A+Hudson Valley Renegades · 47 IPFIP 2.19 → 3.49 (+1.30)K% 40.5% → 31.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	40.53%	—	×0.770	31.21%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.42%	—	×1.150	9.68%
HR / BF /BF	2.63%	÷1.006	×1.250	3.27%

Result: FIP 2.19 → 3.49, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Chase Hampton (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	3.7%	—	5.68	19.6%	5.0%	255	-0.30	—	—	—
Will Schomberg R 2024 · 4.85 FIP	23	SP	4.85	21.4%	15.6%	2.9%	.266	3.86	23.3%	11.7%	90	-0.99	3.86	206	81
Jake Bockenstedt R 2024 · 6.05 FIP	24	SP	6.05	17.0%	13.1%	5.0%	.322	4.35	16.8%	5.4%	126	-1.70	3.74	218	81
J.P. France R 2019 · 5.32 FIP	24	SP-	5.32	17.9%	13.9%	3.6%	.285	4.24	26.3%	15.2%	225	-1.08	4.04	577	80
Hayden Merda R 2023 · 5.17 FIP	23	SP	5.17	16.1%	15.3%	2.7%	.325	4.59	25.5%	10.9%	108	-0.58	4.20	203	80
Nic Swanson R 2024 · 4.91 FIP	25	SP	4.91	19.3%	11.8%	3.5%	.286	5.43	19.9%	6.5%	132	+0.52	4.29	438	79
Bryce Osmond R 2023 · 5.56 FIP	22	SP	5.56	18.0%	12.4%	4.4%	.294	7.13	16.7%	3.8%	80	+1.57	5.56	177	78
Nick Nastrini R 2024 · 5.76 FIP	24	SP	5.76	19.5%	14.6%	4.5%	.276	6.44	18.0%	-1.2%	47	+0.68	4.02	412	78
Jake Peppers R 2024 · 5.02 FIP	22	SP	5.02	15.3%	12.2%	3.0%	.293	5.15	14.8%	-1.3%	89	+0.13	4.83	186	77
Will Sanders R 2024 · 4.95 FIP	22	SP	4.95	19.3%	11.8%	3.6%	.297	4.11	20.1%	12.5%	173	-0.84	3.92	266	76
Juaron Watts-Brown R 2024 · 5.25 FIP	22	SP	5.25	21.8%	15.4%	3.7%	.294	4.92	22.8%	10.9%	221	-0.33	4.16	324	76
Khristian Curtis R 2024 · 5.48 FIP	22	SP	5.48	18.8%	14.4%	3.9%	.275	4.62	20.6%	8.4%	216	-0.86	4.60	291	76
Connor Staine R 2024 · 4.80 FIP	23	SP	4.80	20.3%	12.6%	3.3%	.266	5.19	16.1%	3.4%	230	+0.39	3.86	414	75
Patrick Reilly R 2024 · 4.96 FIP	22	SP	4.96	23.2%	13.6%	3.8%	.242	5.00	27.8%	20.2%	40	+0.04	4.96	159	75
Dom Hamel R 2024 · 5.31 FIP	25	SP	5.31	18.3%	11.9%	4.1%	.330	4.96	17.9%	8.8%	180	-0.35	3.61	547	75
Jarrod Cande R 2024 · 5.42 FIP	24	SP	5.42	16.7%	11.0%	4.3%	.256	5.72	11.7%	-3.6%	23	+0.30	4.31	315	74
Justin Miller R 2002 · 5.01 FIP	24	SP-	5.01	14.5%	13.6%	2.6%	.280	5.41	12.5%	2.1%	82	+0.40	2.63	373	74
Justin Armbruester R 2024 · 5.73 FIP	25	SP	5.73	20.2%	11.1%	5.3%	.289	1.49	27.5%	21.9%	15	-4.24	1.49	373	74
Bryce Conley R 2019 · 5.40 FIP	24	SP-	5.40	17.0%	16.0%	3.1%	.227	4.28	17.4%	5.6%	142	-1.12	4.22	560	74
Zack Brown R 2019 · 5.13 FIP	24	SP	5.13	16.0%	12.3%	3.3%	.336	4.52	20.9%	9.4%	70	-0.61	3.46	490	73
Joel Hanrahan R 2007 · 5.58 FIP	25	SP	5.58	17.4%	15.4%	3.6%	.318	3.06	27.8%	18.1%	218	-2.52	2.08	397	72

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 2,161 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 910 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.6	86	19.2%	14.9%	1.44	5.78
Doug Creek ('05)	1.4	58	22.2%	15.1%	1.52	5.32
Paul Spoljaric ('00)	1.4	69	22.1%	12.9%	1.33	5.52
Richie Lewis ('98)	1.5	59	18.1%	14.1%	1.38	4.88
Lowell Palmer ('69-'74, -4 WAR*)	1.6	79	21.9%*	13.3%*	1.59*	6.09*
Jim Duckworth ('63-'66, -4 WAR*)	1.3	67	23.1%*	12.4%*	1.43*	6.15*
Darrel Akerfelds ('86-'91, -3 WAR*)	1.2	78	15.8%*	11.9%*	1.61*	5.40*