Chase Hampton — OGILVIE

Chase Hampton P Somerset Patriots

Age 24 RHP 6'2" / 225 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032 peak 1.1 · 2027 ILReassigned to Minors (RM)

2026 ROS PROJECTION55 act + 11 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 114105vR 97

ERA4.23

FIP4.23

K%25.1%

BB%9.5%

K-BB%15.7%

ROS IP11

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 66 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$15M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—50

STUF5555

CTRL4555

CMD4045

K†6060

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2027

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2032

First FA Year 2033

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2027
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.5	$2M	+$1M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.8	$3M	+$2M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.8	$3M	+$2M
2030	Arb-1	$3M	+0.8	$2M	+$0.1M
2031	Arb-2	$5M	+0.6	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2032	Arb-3	$5M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$6M		$12M	+$5M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	20	107	438	145	37	13	100%	5.3	26.1%	9.5%	16.6%	3.5%	3.63	4.04	—
2023	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	20	107	438	145	37	13	100%	5.3	26.1%	9.5%	16.6%	3.5%	3.63	4.04	—
2023	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	20	20	107	438	145	37	13	100%	5.3	33.1%	8.4%	24.7%	3.0%	3.63	3.01	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	7	7	19	76	16	9	1	100%	2.7	21.1%	11.8%	9.2%	1.3%	2.41	3.54	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	7	7	19	76	16	9	1	100%	2.7	21.1%	11.8%	9.2%	1.3%	2.41	3.54	—
2024	22	MIX RAW	3 levels	7	7	19	76	16	9	1	100%	2.7	21.1%	11.8%	9.2%	1.3%	2.41	3.53	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	24	AA MLE	Somerset Patriots	17	17	55	263	56	34	13	100%	3.2	16.7%	17.2%	-0.5%	6.7%	8.18	7.55	—
YTD	24	AA MLE	Somerset Patriots	17	17	55	263	56	34	13	100%	3.2	16.7%	17.2%	-0.5%	6.7%	8.18	7.55	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	24	A RAW	NYY	3	3	9	36	8	2	2	100%	2.9	22.2%	5.6%	16.7%	5.6%	4.15	4.98	—
2026	24	A+ RAW	NYY	3	3	11	48	11	4	1	100%	3.6	22.9%	8.3%	14.6%	2.1%	6.75	3.36	—
2026	24	AA RAW	NYY	11	11	36	179	37	28	10	100%	3.2	20.7%	15.6%	5.0%	5.6%	9.59	6.40	—
ROS	24	MLB MLE	NYY	2	2	11	49	12	5	1	100%	5.7	25.1%	9.5%	15.7%	3.0%	4.23	4.23	+0.1
ROS	24	MLB CTX	NYY	1	1	1	4	1	0	0	100%	1.0	25.1%	9.5%	15.7%	3.2%	4.34	4.34	+0.0
2026 TOT	24	MLB MLE	NYY	—	—	66	312	68	39	14	—	—	21.9%	12.4%	9.5%	4.6%	7.50	6.97	-1.7
FULL	24	MLB A+C	NYY	—	—	1	5	1	0	0	—	—	25.1%	9.5%	15.7%	3.2%	4.34	3.96	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	25	MLB MLE	NYY	22	22	128	542	137	49	16	100%	5.8	25.2%	9.1%	16.1%	3.0%	4.19	4.16	+1.1
2028	26	MLB MLE	NYY	21	21	128	542	136	48	16	100%	6.1	25.2%	8.9%	16.2%	3.0%	4.17	4.15	+1.1
2029	27	MLB MLE	NYY	21	21	126	534	133	48	16	100%	6.0	25.0%	9.0%	16.0%	3.1%	4.18	4.19	+1.1
2030	28	MLB MLE	NYY	20	20	123	518	128	47	16	100%	6.1	24.8%	9.1%	15.7%	3.2%	4.24	4.28	+0.9
2031	29	MLB MLE	NYY	20	20	117	494	121	46	16	100%	5.9	24.6%	9.3%	15.2%	3.3%	4.34	4.41	+0.7
2032	30	MLB MLE	NYY	18	18	110	465	112	45	16	100%	6.1	24.2%	9.6%	14.6%	3.5%	4.49	4.59	+0.4
2033	31	MLB MLE	NYY	17	17	103	434	103	43	16	100%	6.0	23.8%	10.0%	13.8%	3.7%	4.67	4.79	+0.1
2034	32	MLB MLE	NYY	16	16	95	401	94	42	16	100%	5.9	23.4%	10.4%	13.0%	4.0%	4.88	5.01	-0.1
2027	25	MLB CTX	NYY	11	11	62	262	66	24	8	100%	5.6	25.2%	9.1%	16.1%	3.2%	4.30	4.27	+0.5
2028	26	MLB CTX	NYY	15	15	89	376	95	34	12	100%	5.9	25.2%	8.9%	16.2%	3.2%	4.28	4.26	+0.8
2029	27	MLB CTX	NYY	17	17	100	422	106	38	14	100%	5.9	25.0%	9.0%	16.0%	3.3%	4.29	4.30	+0.8
2030	28	MLB CTX	NYY	17	17	104	439	109	40	15	100%	6.1	24.8%	9.1%	15.7%	3.4%	4.36	4.40	+0.8
2031	29	MLB CTX	NYY	17	17	103	435	107	40	15	100%	6.1	24.6%	9.3%	15.2%	3.5%	4.46	4.53	+0.6
2032	30	MLB CTX	NYY	17	17	100	422	102	41	16	100%	5.9	24.2%	9.6%	14.6%	3.8%	4.62	4.72	+0.4
2033	31	MLB CTX	NYY	16	16	94	397	94	40	16	100%	5.9	23.8%	10.0%	13.8%	4.0%	4.81	4.93	+0.1
2034	32	MLB CTX	NYY	15	15	88	372	87	38	16	100%	5.9	23.4%	10.4%	13.0%	4.3%	5.03	5.16	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		124	124	742	3132	767	295	113	100%	6.0	24.5%	9.4%	15.1%	3.6%	4.52	4.20	+6.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	207	80	30	100%	6.0	24.5%	9.4%	15.1%	3.6%	4.52	4.20	+1.7
Career	—	MLE		44	44	180	777	174	96	34	100%	4.1	22.4%	12.3%	10.1%	4.4%	4.89	5.18	+5.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		49	49	200	862	193	106	38	100%	4.1	22.4%	12.3%	10.1%	4.4%	4.89	5.18	+1.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Chase Hampton (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.23	25.1%	9.5%	3.0%	—	4.17	25.1%	16.1%	383	-0.06	—	—	—
Kyle Bradish R 2021 · 3.60 FIP	24	SP	3.60	26.4%	10.6%	2.5%	.333	3.30	24.9%	17.2%	345	-0.30	2.20	750	85
Brody McCullough R 2023 · 3.58 FIP	23	SP	3.58	23.1%	10.3%	2.1%	.267	4.45	21.3%	11.7%	42	+0.87	3.58	129	84
Mason Black R 2023 · 4.27 FIP	23	SP	4.27	24.8%	10.0%	3.6%	.284	5.15	17.4%	7.7%	331	+0.88	3.95	567	84
Ty Madden R 2023 · 4.52 FIP	23	SP	4.52	24.0%	11.2%	3.7%	.304	4.87	20.6%	11.1%	207	+0.35	4.52	448	83
Carson Ragsdale R 2021 · 4.21 FIP	23	SP	4.21	25.0%	10.7%	3.4%	.349	4.29	24.8%	14.4%	148	+0.08	2.00	352	82
Kyle Brnovich R 2021 · 3.95 FIP	23	SP	3.95	25.1%	7.5%	3.7%	.256	5.54	20.7%	11.0%	89	+1.59	3.95	338	82
Will Warren R 2023 · 4.11 FIP	24	SP	4.11	22.3%	10.1%	2.9%	.287	4.00	23.6%	15.4%	437	-0.11	3.82	695	82
David Festa R 2023 · 3.69 FIP	23	SP	3.69	24.4%	11.2%	2.2%	.341	3.75	26.7%	18.6%	209	+0.06	3.67	405	81
Cade Horton R 2023 · 3.22 FIP	21	SP	3.22	26.0%	8.8%	2.2%	.273	3.60	21.6%	13.8%	181	+0.38	3.22	270	80
Cory Lewis R 2023 · 3.43 FIP	22	SP	3.43	21.7%	9.3%	1.8%	.267	5.06	21.6%	7.5%	229	+1.63	3.43	330	80
Trevor Martin R 2023 · 4.25 FIP	22	SP	4.25	21.3%	10.6%	2.9%	.297	4.25	19.8%	10.6%	240	+0.00	4.16	350	80
Dom Hamel R 2023 · 3.94 FIP	24	SP	3.94	24.6%	10.2%	2.9%	.314	5.16	17.5%	7.3%	304	+1.22	3.61	547	80
Ben Gross R 2021 · 4.05 FIP	24	SP-	4.05	23.0%	8.8%	3.2%	.359	4.85	17.6%	2.0%	22	+0.80	4.05	118	79
Nick Nastrini R 2023 · 4.03 FIP	23	SP	4.03	22.7%	11.5%	2.5%	.288	6.00	18.5%	2.7%	168	+1.97	4.03	412	79
Shumpei Yoshikawa R 2019 · 3.84 FIP	24	SP	3.84	21.8%	5.6%	3.4%	.336	6.33	25.7%	15.1%	20	+2.49	3.84	124	77
Emerson Hancock R 2023 · 4.30 FIP	24	SP	4.30	21.1%	10.2%	3.1%	.288	4.33	18.3%	11.3%	428	+0.03	3.24	669	77
Davis Daniel R 2021 · 3.93 FIP	24	SP	3.93	25.8%	7.7%	3.7%	.313	4.18	19.1%	12.1%	283	+0.25	3.04	593	77
Nick Sinacola R 2023 · 4.20 FIP	23	SP	4.20	20.3%	7.6%	3.4%	.313	3.97	17.0%	8.6%	166	-0.23	3.56	357	77
Cole Sands R 2021 · 3.67 FIP	24	SP	3.67	23.3%	11.5%	1.9%	.269	3.55	24.9%	17.3%	216	-0.12	2.28	474	77
Mitch White R 2019 · 4.64 FIP	24	SP	4.64	22.7%	8.3%	4.4%	.309	3.53	20.9%	12.9%	194	-1.11	2.49	626	76

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	5.2	116	24.6%	9.4%	1.27	4.35
Jon Gray ('24)	6.1	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Mike Clevinger ('23)	3.9	113	24.8%	8.7%	1.07	3.45
Kenta Maeda ('24)	4.9	122	25.9%	6.9%	1.30	4.17
Julio Teheran ('23)	5.2	147	20.4%	8.8%	1.34	4.12
Vince Velasquez ('23)	3.8	85	24.9%	9.3%	1.48	4.88
Mike Foltynewicz ('21)	4.0	134	21.4%	7.7%	1.46	4.45